**Executive Summary**
The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has launched specialized El Niño bulletins to monitor and mitigate impacts on India’s maritime sectors, with the inaugural advisory released on June 22, 2026. The El Niño event is projected to peak between November 2026 and January 2027, maintaining high sea surface temperatures through May 2027. Maritime operators must monitor these updates to manage risks, with the next bulletin scheduled for release in the second week of July 2026.
**Key Points / Main Content**
**Timeline and Forecast**
* **Peak Period:** The ongoing El Niño is expected to peak during the winter season from November 2026 to January 2027.
* **Temperature Trends:** Sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean are forecast to remain higher than normal until April/May 2027.
* **Thermal Stress:** The northern Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal) will likely experience significant thermal stress between March and May 2027.
**Ecosystem and Fisheries Impacts**
* **Coral and Heat Waves:** Increased risks of coral reef bleaching and more frequent marine heat waves are expected.
* **Fisheries Depletion:** A reduction in fish catch, specifically sardine and mackerel species, is anticipated due to stock migration or decreased recruitment.
* **Growth Issues:** Changes in marine environmental conditions may prevent fish from reaching desired commercial sizes.
**Regional Sea Conditions**
* **Bay of Bengal (East Coast):** Sea states will remain rough during the monsoon, increasing the likelihood of coastal erosion and flooding.
* **Arabian Sea (West Coast):** Sea states are expected to be calmer than usual, potentially extending the operational window for marine activities and reducing coastal inundation.
**Impact Analysis**
**Maritime Operators**
**Impact**
Operators face varying regional conditions, including increased operational risks in the Bay of Bengal due to rough seas, but improved windows for activity in the Arabian Sea.
**Action Required**
Closely monitor and follow all alerts, warnings, and specialized advisories issued by INCOIS to ensure safety and operational efficiency.
**Fishing Industry**
**Impact**
The sector faces significant economic risks from reduced catches of key species (sardine and mackerel) and smaller individual fish sizes resulting from environmental stress and habitat migration.
**Action Required**
Utilize INCOIS data to adapt to changing fish stock distributions and habitat shifts.
**East Coast Communities and Authorities**
**Impact**
Increased vulnerability to coastal erosion and flooding during the monsoon season due to rougher sea states in the Bay of Bengal.
**Action Required**
Prepare for potential inundation and erosion events by following coastal alerts and warnings provided in the bulletins.
Key Entities Referenced
INCOIS: The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, the primary organization issuing specialized El Niño advisories and warnings to safeguard maritime sectors.
Specialized El Niño Bulletins: An initiative launched to highlight the impacts of El Niño on sea surface temperatures, marine ecosystems, and maritime operations in India.
Northern Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal): The central geographic focus of the advisory, identified as the region facing thermal stress, coral bleaching, and rough sea conditions.
Ministry of Earth Sciences: The central government ministry under which INCOIS operates and manages oceanographic information and maritime alerts.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
INCOIS Launches Specialized El Niño Bulletins to
Safeguard India's Maritime Sectors
INCOIS Warns of Rising Sea Temperatures and Marine Stress
in First El Niño Bulletin
Hon’ble MP Shri. Konda Vishweshwar Reddy Releases
INCOIS’ First Specialized El Niño Advisory for Maritime
Operators
प्रव तथ: 23 JUN 2026 5:55PM by PIB Delhi
INCOIS started releasing Specialized El Nino Bulletins to highlight the possible impacts of the
ongoing El Nino on the Maritime Sectors. The first specialized bulletin was released by Shri. Konda
Vishweshwar Reddy Garu, Hon'ble Member of Parliament, Chevella Constituency on 22nd June
2026 in an event held at INCOIS.
The bulletin confirms that the El Nino event continues to develop and is expected to peak in the winter
season (November 2026 to January 2027). As a result, the sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean will
be higher than normal until April/May 2027. The marine ecosystem in the northern Indian Ocean (both
Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal) is likely to be under thermal stress in the coming months, especially
during March-May 2027. This can lead to increased bleaching of coral reefs, more episodes of marine heat
waves and reduction in the fish catch (particularly sardine and mackerel species) due to migration of fish
stock to suitable habitats or due to decrease in the recruitment. Further, the fish may not reach the desired
sizes due to changes in the marine environmental conditions related to the developing El Nino.
The sea state in the Bay of Bengal will remain rough during the monsoon season and there are chances for
increased coastal erosion and flooding in the east coast of India. On a positive note, the sea state in the
Arabian Sea and west coast is likely to be calmer than usual which can increase the window for operations
of various marine sectors. Coastal erosion and inundation is likely to be less in the west coast during the
ongoing monsoon season.
INCOIS advises all maritime operators to closely follow the alerts, warnings and advisories issued by
INCOIS from time to time. The next specialized bulletin will be issued in the second week of July 2026.Release of Specialized El Nino Bulletin by Shri. Konda Vishweshwar Reddy Garu, Hon'ble Member of
Parliament, Chevella Constituency.
Potential impacts of ongoing El Nino event on Indian Ocean Maritime sectors.
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NKR/JKP
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