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Ministry of Finance
Department of Economic Affairs
Economic Division
4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012
MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT
APRIL 2016
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HIGHLIGHTS
As per the Advance Estimates of National Income released by Central Statistics Office on 8th
February 2016, the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices
for the year 2015-16 is estimated to be 7.6 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.2 per cent in
2014-15.
The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices for the year 2015-16
is estimated to be 7.3 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.1 per cent in 2014-15. At the
sectoral level, the growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices for agriculture & allied
sectors, industry and services sectors for the year 2015-16 are estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 7.3
per cent, and 9.2 per cent respectively.
Stocks of foodgrains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on April 1, 2016 were 43.4 million tonnes,
as compared to 41.0 million tonnes as on April 1, 2015.
Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was 0.1 per cent in March 2016 as
compared to 2.5 per cent in March 2015. On cumulative basis, the IIP growth during 2015-16
was 2.4 per cent, as compared to growth of 2.8 per cent during 2014-15.
Eight core infrastructure industries grew by 6.4 per cent in March 2016, as compared to growth
of (-) 0.7 per cent in March 2015. The growth of core industries during 2015-16 was 2.7 per
cent as compared to 4.5 per cent during 2014-15.
The growth of money supply on year on year (YoY) basis as on 29th April 2016 stood at 10.0 per
cent as compared to a growth rate of 11.5 per cent recorded in the corresponding period a year
ago.
Merchandise exports and imports declined by 6.7 per cent and 23.1 per cent (in US dollar terms)
respectively in April 2016 over April 2015. During April 2016, oil imports and non-oil imports
declined by 24.0 per cent and 22.8 per cent respectively over April 2015.
Foreign Exchange Reserves stood at US$ 363.0 billion at end April 2016 as compared to US$
360.2 billion at end March 2016. The rupee appreciated by 0.9 and 0.1 per cent respectively
against the US dollar and Pound sterling and declined by 2.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent
respectively against Japanese Yen and Euro, in April 2016 over the previous month of March
2016.
The WPI headline inflation increased to 0.3 per cent in April 2016 from (-) 0.9 per cent in March
2016.The CPI headline inflation increased to 5.4 per cent in April 2016 from 4.8 per cent in
March 2016.
The revised estimate of fiscal deficit and revenue deficit as percentage of GDP at current market
prices for 2015-16 is estimated at 3.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively as compared to 4.1
per cent and 2.9 per cent respectively in 2014-15. Fiscal deficit is budgeted to be at 3.5 per cent
of GDP in 2016-17.
(Aakanksha Arora)
Assistant Director
11. ECONOMIC GROWTH
As per the Advance Estimates of national income released by Central Statistics Office on 8th
February 2016, the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices
for the year 2015-16 is estimated to be 7.6 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.2 per cent,
6.6 per cent, and 5.6 per cent respectively for the year 2014-15, 2013-14, and 2012-13. (Table
1).
The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices for the year 2015-16
is estimated to be 7.3 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.1 per cent, 6.3 per cent, and 5.4
per cent respectively for 2014-15, 2013-14, and 2012-13. At the sectoral level, the growth rate of
GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices for agriculture & allied sectors, industry and services
sectors for the year 2015-16 are estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 7.3 per cent, and 9.2 per cent
respectively (Table 1).
The share of total final consumption in GDP at current prices in 2015-16 is estimated to be 70.5
per cent as compared to 68.5 per cent in 2014-15. Though the share of fixed investment rate
(gross fixed capital formation to GDP) is estimated to decline in 2015-16, its growth rate is
estimated to improve to 5.3 per cent in 2015-16 as compared to 4.9 per cent in 2014-15.
The saving rate (gross saving to GDP) for the years 2014-15 and 2013-14 remained at 33.0 per
cent as compared to 33.8 per cent in 2012-13. The investment rate (gross capital formation to
GDP) in 2014-15 was 34.2 per cent, as compared to 34.7 per cent and 38.6 per cent respectively
in 2013-14 and 2012-13.
2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT
Rainfall: The cumulative rainfall received for the country as a whole, during the period 1st
March – 11th May, 2016, has been 12.0 per cent below normal. The actual rainfall received
during this period has been 77.3 mm as against the normal at 88.2 mm. Out of the total 36
meteorological subdivisions, 4 subdivisions received excess season rainfall, 13 subdivision
received normal season rainfall and the remaining 19 subdivisions received deficient/scanty/no
season rainfall.
All India production of food grains: As per the 3rd Advance Estimates released by Ministry of
Agriculture & Farmers Welfare on 9th May 2016, production of foodgrains during 2015-16 is
estimated at 252.2 million tonnes compared to 252.0 million tonnes in 2014-15(Table 3).
Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 9th May 2016 was 32.2 million tonnes during Kharif
Marketing Season 2015-16 (KMS is under progress) and procurement of wheat as on 9th May
2016 was 22.1 million tonnes during Rabi Marketing Season 2016-17 (Table 4).
Off-take: Off-take of rice during the month of February, 2016 was 25.4 lakh tonnes. This
comprises 22.3 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month of
March, 2016) and 3.1 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total off-take
was 37.1 lakh tonnes comprising of 21.1 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the
allocation for the month of March, 2016) and 16.0 lakh tonnes under other schemes. Cumulative
Off-take of foodgrains during 2015-16 (till February, 2016) is 621 lakh tonnes (Table 5).
Stocks: Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on April 1, 2016 were 43.4 million
tonnes, as compared to 41.0 million tonnes as on April 1, 2015 (table 6).
23. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 0.1 per cent in March 2016 as compared to 2.5
per cent in March 2015. The year 2015-16 recorded a growth of 2.4 per cent as compared to 2.8
per cent during 2014-15 (table 7).
The mining sector registered a negative growth of 0.1 per cent in March 2016 first time after
June 2015. However, for the year 2015-16 mining production growth was 2.2 per cent as
compared to 1.4 per cent in 2014-15.
The manufacturing production also declined by 1.2 per cent in March 2016, as compared to 2.7
per cent in March 2015. The industry groups like electrical machinery, basic metal, food
products and beverages, machinery and equipment pulled down the growth of manufacturing
sector.
In terms of use based classification, sectors like basic goods, intermediate goods and consumer
durable goods registered positive growth while capital goods and consumer non-durables have
registered negative growth in March 2016.
Basic goods attained positive growth of 4.0 per cent in March 2016 as compared to 2.6 per cent
in March 2015.
The production of intermediate goods increased by 3.7 per cent in March 2016, as compared to
2.8 per cent in March 2015. For the year 2015-16, intermediate goods recorded a growth of 2.5
per cent, higher as compared to 1.7 per cent in 2014-15.
The consumer durable goods production increased by 8.7 per cent in March 2016, as compared
to contraction of 4.6 per cent in March 2015. In contrast, the capital goods production declined
sharply by 15.4 per cent in March 2016, as compared to a growth of 9.1 per cent in 2015. The
capital goods production for the full year 2015-16 contracted by 2.9 per cent as compared to a
growth of 6.3 per cent in 2014-15.
The production of consumer non-durable goods also declined by 4.4 per cent in March 2016 as
compared to a growth of 1.9 per cent in March 2015.
Eight Core Industries
Eight Core industries registered a growth of 6.4 per cent in March 2016 as compared to a growth
of (-)0.7 per cent in March 2015 due to the positive growth in all the six core sectors except
crude oil and natural gas sectors. Eight core industries grew by 2.7 per cent in 2015-16 as
compared to 4.5 per cent in 2014-15 (table 8).
Coal production increased by 1.7 per cent in March 2016 on YoY basis, as compared to 4.5 per
cent growth in March 2015. Coal India Limited (CIL) and its subsidiary companies achieved 101
per cent of the target in March 2016.
Crude oil production during March 2016 declined by 5.1 per cent, as compared to a growth of 1.7
per cent during the corresponding month of previous year. Natural gas production also declined
by 10.5 per cent in March 2016.
Petroleum Refinery and fertilizer production registered a higher growth in 2015-16 as
compared to 2014-15. Petroleum refinery and fertilizers production achieved a growth rate of
10.8 per cent and 22.9 per cent respectively in March 2016, as compared to (-)1.3 per cent and
5.2 per cent respectively in March 2015.
Steel production declined by 3.4 per cent in March 2016 over the same month in previous year.
3 Cement attained a significant growth at 11.9 per cent in March 2016, as compared to growth of
(-) 3.7 per cent in March 2015.
Comparison of Core Industry Growth and IIP Growth
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Some Infrastructure Indicators
The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1051.9 million at end-February
2016 to 1058.9 million at end- March 2016. The overall tele-density in India stood at 83.4 at
end-March 2016; the urban tele-density was 154.0 and rural tele-density was 51.4.
The traffic handled in major ports grew by 9.7 per cent to 52.4 million tonnes in April 2016 from
47.8 million tonnes in April 2015.
Power Sector Scenario
As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation grew by 11.3 in March
2016. Growth of electricity generation was 5.6 per cent during 2015-16.
The addition to power generation capacity was 9795.0 MW in March 2016, as compared
to 6630.9 MW in March 2015. On cumulative basis, during 2015-16, the addition to
power generation capacity was 23976.6 MW, as compared to 22566.3 MW during 2014-
15.
The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 298060.0 MW at end March
2016, of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 70.7 per
cent, 14.4 per cent , 13.0 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively.
4. FINANCIAL MARKETS
Money and Banking
Broad Money (M3) or Money Supply: Growth of money supply on YoY basis as on 29th April 2016
stood at 10.0 per cent, as compared to a growth rate of 11.5 per cent recorded in the corresponding
period a year ago. The growth rate of time deposits with banks was 9.2 per cent in April 2016, lower as
against 11.6 per cent in April 2015. Demand deposits with banks grew at 9.2 per cent in April 2016, as
compared to 11.6 per cent during the corresponding period last year.
Growth of Deposits, Credit and Investments by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs)
Growth of aggregate deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) in April 2016 was 9.3 per cent on
YoY basis (as on April 29), as compared to 11.6 per cent recorded during the corresponding date of the
4previous year. In terms of bank credit, YoY growth was 9.2 per cent as on 29th April 2016, as against
10.0 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago. The YoY growth of investment by SCBs in
government and other approved securities was 5.1 per cent on 29th April, as compared to 12.8 per cent
in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Lending and deposit rates
The base lending rate as on 29th April 2016 was 9.30/9.70 per cent as compared to 9.75/10.25 per cent
in the corresponding period a year ago. The term deposit rates for above one year was 7.00/8.00 per
cent on 29th April 2016 as against 8.00/8.50 per cent during the corresponding period a year ago.
5. EXTERNAL SECTOR
Foreign trade:. Merchandise exports and imports declined by 6.7 per cent and 23.1 per cent
respectively in US dollar terms in April 2016 over April 2015 (Table 10). During April 2016, oil
imports and non-oil imports declined by 24.0 per cent and 22.8 per cent respectively over April
2015.
Balance of Payments: India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to US$ 22.0
billion (1.4 per cent of GDP) in 2015-16 (April-December) from US$ 26.1 billion (1.7 per cent of
GDP) in corresponding period of the previous year. Net invisibles’ earning was placed at US$
83.6 billion in 2015-16 (April-December) as against US$ 87.2 billion over corresponding period
of the previous year. Net capital inflows, however, declined to US$ 36.6 billion (2.4 per cent of
GDP) in 2015-16 (April-December) from US$ 57.4 billion (3.8 per cent of GDP) in the
corresponding period of 2014-15.
Foreign Exchange Reserves:: Foreign Exchange Reserves stood at US$ 363.0 billion as at end-
April 2016 as compared to US$ 360.2 billion at end-March2016 (Table 11).
Exchange Rate: The rupee appreciated by 0.9 and 0.1 per cent respectively against the US dollar
and Pound sterling and declined by 2.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively against Japanese
Yen and Euro, in April 2016 over the previous month of March 2016.
External Debt: India’s external debt remains within manageable limits as indicated by the
external debt-GDP ratio of 23.8 per cent at end-March 2015. India’s external debt stood at US$
480.2 billion at end-December 2015, recording an increase of 1.0 per cent over the level at end-
March 2015. However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, total external debt at end-December 2015
declined by US$ 1.2 billion from the end-September 2015 level. Long-term debt accounted for
83.0 per cent of total external debt at end-December 2015 (82.0 per cent at end-March 2015).
Short-term external debt was US$ 86.1 billion at end-December 2015, as compared to US$ 85.5
billion at end-March 2015.
Exchange Rate Rupee per US Dollar
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64.0
62.0
60.0
58.0
56.0
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5India's Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billion)
370.0
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340.0
330.0
320.0
310.0
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6. INFLATION
The Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPI): The all India CPI inflation (New Series-
Combined) increased to 5.4 per cent in April 2016 from 4.8 per cent in March 2016. It averaged
4.9 per cent in 2015-16 as compared to 5.9 per cent in 2014-15. Food inflation based on
Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) increased to 6.3 per cent in April 2016 from 5.2 per cent in
March 2016 mainly on account of rise in inflation of meat & fish, fruits, vegetables, and sugar.
CPI Fuel & light inflation declined to 3.0 per cent in April 2016 from 3.5 per cent in March 2016.
Inflation based on CPI-IW for March 2016 remained unchanged at 5.5 per cent as in the previous
month. Inflation based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL stood at 5.0 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively
in March 2016 as compared to 5.0 per cent and 5.3 per cent in February 2016.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI): The headline WPI inflation increased to 0.3 per cent in April
2016 from (-)0.9 per cent in March 2016. It averaged (-) 2.5 per cent in 2015-16 (provisional) as
compared to 2.0 per cent in 2014-15. Inflation for Food articles for the month of April 2016
increased to 4.2 per cent from 3.7 per cent in the previous month. WPI food inflation (food
articles + food products) increased to 5.4 per cent from 4.0 per cent in the previous month
mainly on account of vegetables, pulses, sugar and edible oils. Inflation in fuel & power
increased to (-)4.8 per cent in April 2016 from (-)8.3 per cent in the previous month. Inflation
for manufactured products and non-food manufactured products (core as defined by RBI)
increased to 0.7 per cent and (-)0.8 per cent respectively in April 2016 from (-)0.1 per cent and
(-)1.1 per cent in the previous month.
Inflation based on WPI and CPI (in per cent)
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WPI headline WPI food CPI headline CPI food (CFPI)
6 Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data): Global inflation
continued to be negative for all broad groups except precious metals. Energy prices as measured
by the World Bank energy index dropped by 29.1 per cent (YoY) and ‘metals & minerals’
declined by 14 per cent in April 2016 (Table 14).
7. PUBLIC FINANCE
The revised estimate of the fiscal deficit as per cent of GDP at current market prices for 2015-16
is 3.9 per cent as compared to 4.1 per cent in 2014-15. The revised estimate for revenue deficit
as per cent of GDP at current market price for 2015-16 is 2.5 per cent, as compared to 2.9 per
cent in 2014-15.
The growth in provisional figures for 2015-16 (April-February) over 2014-15 (April-February),
is the following :
Gross tax revenue, at ` 11,52,545 crore, increased by 20.7 per cent in April-February 2015-
16.
Revenue Receipts (net to Centre), at ` 9,47,050 crore, increased by 16.0 per cent in April-
February 2015-16.
Tax revenue (net to Centre), at ` 7,35,778 crore, increased by 13.0 per cent.
Non-tax revenue, at ` 2,11,272 crore, increased by 28.2 per cent.
Non-plan expenditure increased by 9.5 per cent.
Plan expenditure decline by 1.0 per cent.
Total expenditure, at ` 15,55,873 crore, increased by 6.6 per cent.
8. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN APRIL 2016
The Government launched the Stand Up India initiative, which aims to boost entrepreneurship
among the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Women. The initiative envisages loans to at least
two aspiring entrepreneurs from these categories.
The “Transnational Skill Standards” has been launched in India. These standards in skill
development are benchmarked to United Kingdom across 82 identified job roles.
The Government launched the Beti Bachao Beti Padhao programme of the Government for
additional 61 districts in 11 States/ UTs.
The Union Cabinet approved for operationalisation of new Indian Institute of Science Education and
Research at Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh from the Academic Year of 2015-16 from a transit / temporary
campus, at an estimated cost of Rs. 137.30 crore for the initial three years (2015-18).
The Union Cabinet approved the expansion of India - Chile Preferential Trade Agreement between
India and Chile.
The Union Cabinet approved to enhance investment by Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited in
Bharat Oman Refineries Limited.
Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation has approved an investment of Rs.9,005 cr for
construction of 73,205 more houses for Economically Weaker Sections in urban under Prime
Minister’s Awas Yojana in the States of Maharashtra, Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir.
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7TABLES
Table 1: Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 Prices) (in per cent)
Growth Share in GVA
2013- 2014- 2015-16 2014- 2015-16
Sector 14 15 (AE) 2013-14 15 (AE)
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 4.2 -0.2 1.1 17.5 16.3 15.3
Industry 5.0 5.9 7.3 31.6 31.2 31.2
Mining & quarrying 3.0 10.8 6.9 2.9 3.0 3.0
Manufacturing 5.6 5.5 9.5 17.4 17.1 17.5
Electricity, gas ,water supply & other
utility services 4.7 8.0 5.9 2.2 2.2 2.2
Construction 4.6 4.4 3.7 9.0 8.8 8.5
Services 7.8 10.3 9.2 51.0 52.5 53.4
Trade, hotels, transport,
communication and services related
to broadcasting 7.8 9.8 9.5 18.4 18.9 19.2
Financial, real estate & professional
services 10.1 10.6 10.3 20.3 21.0 21.5
Public administration, defence and
other Services 4.5 10.7 6.9 12.3 12.7 12.7
GVA at basic prices 6.3 7.1 7.3 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP at market prices 6.6 7.2 7.6 --- --- ---
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO). AE: Advance Estimates.
Table 2: Quarter-wise Growth of GVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (per cent)
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Sectors Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2.8 3.3 5.7 4.3 2.3 2.8 -2.4 -1.7 1.6 2.0 -1.0
Industry 3.1 3.9 4.0 1.7 8.0 5.9 3.8 5.7 6.8 6.4 9.0
Mining & quarrying 2.2 -3.0 0.5 7.2 16.5 7.0 9.1 10.1 8.6 5.0 6.5
Manufacturing -0.8 0.5 2.4 -0.7 7.9 5.8 1.7 6.6 7.3 9.0 12.6
Electricity, gas ,water supply &
other utility services -2.6 1.0 -1.5 0.4 10.2 8.8 8.8 4.4 4.0 7.5 6.0
Construction 13.3 14.6 9.9 5.2 5.0 5.3 4.9 2.6 6.0 1.2 4.0
Services 8.7 9.3 7.7 5.4 8.6 10.7 12.9 9.3 9.0 9.4 9.4
Trade, hotels, transport,
communication and services
related to broadcasting 6.8 8.4 9.2 6.9 11.6 8.4 6.2 13.1 10.5 8.1 10.1
Financial, real estate &
professional services
9.8 14.0 9.1 6.9 8.5 12.7 12.1 9.0 9.3 11.6 9.9
Public administration, defence
and Other Services 9.6 2.9 3.2 1.2 4.2 10.3 25.3 4.1 6.1 7.1 7.5
GVA at Basic Price 5.9 6.7 6.1 4.0 7.4 8.1 6.7 6.2 7.2 7.5 7.1
GDP at market prices 6.2 7.7 6.0 4.4 7.5 8.3 6.6 6.7 7.6 7.7 7.3
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO).
Table 3: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (3rdAdv. Est.)
8Crops Production (in Million Tonnes)
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
(3rd AE)
Total Foodgrains 257.1 265.0 252.0 252.2
Rice 105.2 106.7 105.5 103.4
Wheat 93.5 95.9 86.5 94.0
Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 42.9 37.8
Total Pulses 18.3 19.3 17.2 17.1
Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 27.5 25.9
Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 362.3 346.7
Cotton# 34.2 35.9 34.8 30.5
Source: DES, DAC&FW, M/o Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, 2ndAE : Second Advance Estimates, . # Million
bales of 170 kgs. each.
Table 4 : Procurement of Crops in Million Tonnes
Crops 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Rice# 35.0 34.0 31.8 32.2 32.2 β -
Wheat@ 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0 28.1 22.1 β
Total 63.4 72.2 56.9 60.2 60.3 -
Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution ; # Kharif Marketing Season (October-
September), @ Rabi Marketing Season (April-March), β Position as on 09.05.2016.
Table 5: Off-Take of Food Grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
(Till February)
Rice 32.6 29.2 30.7 31.4
Wheat 33.2 30.6 25.2 30.7
Total 65.9 59.8 55.9 62.1
(Rice & Wheat)
Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution
Table 6: Stocks of Food Grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops April 1, 2015 April 1, 2016
1. Rice 17.1 22.2
2. Unmilled Paddy# 10.0 9.9
3. Converted Unmilled Paddy in terms of 6.7 6.7
Rice
4. Wheat 17.2 14.5
Total (Rice & Wheat)(1+3+4) 41.0 43.4
Source: FCI ; # Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI
& state agencies in terms of rice.
Table 7: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production
Industry Group 2014-15 2015-16 Mar. 2015 Mar. 2016
General index 2.8 2.4 2.5 0.1
Mining 1.4 2.2 1.2 -0.1
9Manufacturing 2.3 2.0 2.7 -1.2
Electricity 8.4 5.6 2.0 11.3
Basic goods 6.9 3.5 2.6 4.0
Capital goods 6.3 -2.9 9.1 -15.4
Intermediate goods 1.7 2.5 2.8 3.7
Consumer goods -3.5 3.0 -0.6 0.4
Durables -12.6 11.2 -4.6 8.7
Non-durables 2.8 -1.7 1.9 -4.4
Source: CSO.
Table 8: Production Growth (per cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries
Industry 2014-15 2015-16 Mar. 2015 Mar. 2016
Coal 8.1 4.6 4.5 1.7
Crude oil -0.9 -1.4 1.7 -5.1
Natural Gas -4.9 -4.2 -1.5 -10.5
Refinery Products 0.3 3.8 -1.5 10.8
Fertilizers -0.1 11.3 5.2 22.9
Steel 4.7 -1.4 -6.5 3.4
Cement 5.6 4.6 -3.7 11.9
Electricity 8.4 5.2 2.0 11.3
Overall growth 4.5 2.7 -0.7 6.4
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, DIPP (Ministry of Commerce & Industry)
Table 9: Money Stock (` In billion)
Outstanding as on Variation over
Year-on-Year
Item 2016
2015 2016
Mar. 31 Apr. 29 % %
Broad Money (M3) 1,16,543.4 1,19,071.9 11.5 10.0
Sources
Net Bank Credit to Government 32,410.3 34,975.3 3.2 10.8
Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 78,219.1 77,947.1 9.8 9.1
Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking
24,907.1 25,160.1 19.0 7.1
Sector
Government's Currency Liabilities to the
219.1 219.1 11.9 12.1
Public
Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 19,212.1 19,229.6 –0.1 4.2
Net Non-Monetary Liabilities of RBI 9,541.7 9,716.0 0.5 12.9
Source: RBI
Table 10 : Exports and Imports (in US$ million)
Item 2015-16 2015 2016 % Change in April 2016
April over April 2015
Exports 262004 22055 20569 -6.7
Imports 380356 33047 25414 -23.1
Oil Imports 82880 7443 5656 -24.0
Non-Oil Imports 297476 25604 19758 -22.8
Trade Deficit -118353 -10992 -4845 -
10Source: Provisional data as per the Press Note of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Table 11: Foreign Exchange Reserves (in Billion)
End of Financial Year Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation
(Rupees ) (US Dollar) (Rupees ) (US Dollar )
At the end of year (Variation over last year)
2012-13 15884 292.0 823 -2.4
2013-14 18284 304.2 2400 12.2
2014-15 21376 341.6 3093 37.4
2015-16 23787 360.2 2411 18.6
At the end of month (Variation over last month)
April-2015 22110 351.9 733 10.2
May-2015 22437 352.5 328 0.6
June-2015 22660 356.0 222 3.5
July-2015 22580 353.5 -80 -2.5
August-2015 23199 351.4 619 2.1
September -2015 22940 350.3 -259 1.1
October-2015 23025 354.2 85 3.9
November-2015 23285 350.2 260 -3.9
December 2015 23135 350.4 150 0.1
January 2016 23586 349.6 370 -2.4
February 2016 23744 348.4 158 -1.2
March 2016 23787 360.2 44 11.8
April 2016 24040 363.0 253 2.9
Source: RBI
Table 12 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency*
US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro
March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951
March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621
March 2015 62.4498 93.4422 0.5190 67.5548
March 2016 67.0581 95.3894 0.5935 74.4543
2015-16
April 2015 62.7532 93.9083 0.5253 67.7934
2016-17
April 2016 66.4695 95.2721 0.6070 75.4092
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
* FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis).
** Data from March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate.
Table 13: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)*
April 2016 FY 2016-17 April 2015 FY 2015-16
External Assistance (Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 1,477.3 1,477.3 1,454.2 1,454.2
2) Repayments 1 ,037.2 1 ,037.2 878.3 878.3
3) Interest Payments 344.9 344.9 268.4 268 .4
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 440.1 440.1 575.9 575.9
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 95.3 95.3 307.5 307.5
11External Assistance (Non-Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 0.0 1 38.1 138.1
2) Repayments 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.5
3) Interest Payments 0.5 0.5 3.0 295.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -4.8 -4.8 133.7 133.7
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -5.3 -5.3 130.7 130.7
Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 73.9 73.9 22.9 22.9
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 73.9 73.9 22.9 22.9
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 73.9 73.9 22.9 22.9
Non-Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0
Grand Total
1) Gross Disbursements 1,551.2 1,551.2 1,623.2 1,623.2
2) Repayments 1,041.9 1,041.9 882.8 882.8
3) Interest Payments 345.4 345.4 271.3 271.3
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 509.3 509.3 740.4 740.4
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 163.9 163.9 469.1 469.1
*: Data are provisional. Source: Office of the Controller of Aid, Accounts and Audit, Ministry of Finance
Table 14: Year-on-Year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (in per cent)
April 2015 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016
Energy -43.8 -41.5 -30.6 -29.1
Non-energy -15.2 -12.9 -8.2 -5.8
Agriculture -15.7 -9.9 -5.0 -2.0
Beverages -14.1 -10.4 -0.9 -1.8
Food -17.0 -10.4 -6.1 -2.4
Raw Materials -12.8 -8.0 -4.2 -1.1
Fertilizers -2.0 -18.1 -19.4 -17.2
Metals & Minerals -15.7 -20.3 -14.8 -14.0
Precious Metals -9.7 -4.0 3.4 2.6
Source: World Bank
Table 15: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (in per cent)
WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI (NS-Combined)
Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012
Apr-15 -2.4 5.8 4.4 4.7 4.9
May-15 -2.2 5.7 4.4 4.6 5.0
Jun-15 -2.1 6.1 4.5 4.7 5.4
Jul-15 -4.0 4.4 2.9 3.2 3.7
Aug-15 -5.1 4.3 3.0 3.2 3.7
Sep-15 -4.6 5.1 3.5 3.7 4.4
Oct-15 -3.7 6.3 4.4 4.7 5.0
Nov-15 -2.0 6.7 4.9 5.0 5.4
12Dec-15 -1.1 6.3 5.7 5.8 5.6
Jan-16 -1.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.7
Feb-16 -0.9 5.5 5.0 5.3 5.3
Mar-16 -0.9 5.5 5.0 5.1 4.8
Apr-16 0.3 - - - 5.4
Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI (New Series-Combined) inflation for last one month are
provisional.
Source: Office of Economic Adviser- DIPP, Labour Bureau and Central Statistics Office.
Table 16: Fiscal Indicators- Rolling Targets as Percentage of GDP
(at current market prices)
Revised Budget Targets for
Estimates Estimates
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Effective Revenue Deficit 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.0
Revenue Deficit 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.3
Fiscal Deficit 3.9 3.5 3.0 3.0
Gross Tax Revenue 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.1
Tax Revenue (net to Centre) 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2
Non-Tax Revenue 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.8
Total Expenditure 13.2 13.1 12.6 12.2
Major Subsidy 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3
Total Defence Expenditure 1.66 1.65 1.6 1.6
Total outstanding liabilities at the end of the year 47.6 47.1 46.8 44.4
Notes:
1. The ratio to GDP at current market prices are based on the CSO’s National Accounts 2011-12 Series.
2. “Total outstanding liabilities” include external public debt at current exchange rates. For projections, constant exchange rates
have been assumed. Liabilities do not include part of NSSF and total MSS liabilities which are not used for Central Government
deficit.
Table 17: Trends in Central Government Finances : April-February, (2015-16)
Revied April-February Col.3 as Col.4 as Per cent change
Estimates per per cent over preceding
(` Crore)
cent of of year
( ` Crore)
2014- 2015-16
2015-16 2014-15 2015-16@ 15 RE RE 2014- 2015-
15 16
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
I. Revenue Receipts 1206084 816238 947050 72.5 78.5 4.2 16.0
Gross tax revenue* 1459611 954953 1152545 76.3 79.0 7.1 20.7
Tax (net to Centre) 947508 651419 735778 71.7 77.7 3.9 13.0
Non Tax Revenue 258576 164819 211272 75.7 81.7 5.3 28.2
II. Capital Receipts 579307 643298 608823 115.9 105.1 4.4 -5.4
of which
Recovery of loans 18905 11063 17428 101.6 92.2 4.6 57.5
Other Receipts 25312 29701 18523 94.7 73.2 372.4 -37.6
Borrowings and other 535090 602534 572872 117.5 107.1 0.5 -4.9
liabilities
III. Total Receipts (I+II) 1785391 1459536 1555873 86.8 87.1 4.3 6.6
IV.Non-Plan Expenditure 1 3 0 8 1 9 4 1 0 5 8 2 2 0 1 1 5 8656 87.2 88.6 6.8 9.5
(a)+(b)
13(a) Revenue Account 1212669 977088 1061579 87.1 87.5 8.6 8.6
of which:
Interest payments 442620 346256 379485 84.2 85.7 7.6 9.6
Major Subsidies 241857 237878 216552 93.7 89.5 8.9 -9.0
Pensions 95731 80321 85945 98.3 89.8 19.8 7.0
(b) Capital Account 95525 81132 97077 88.8 101.6 -11.1 19.7
V.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 477197 401316 397217 85.8 83.2 -1.9 -1.0
(i) Revenue Account 335004 322404 276281 87.9 82.5 1.3 -14.3
(ii) Capital Account 142193 78912 120936 78.1 85.1 -12.9 53.3
VI. Total Expenditure 1785391 1459536 1555873 86.8 87.1 4.3 6.6
(IV)+(V)
(a) Revenue Expenditure 1 547673 1299492 1337860 87.3 86.4 6.7 3.0
(b) of which Grants for 132004 114070 110796 86.5 83.9 -2.0 -2.9
creation of Capital Assets
(c) Capital Expenditure 237718 160044 218013 83.2 91.7 -12.0 36.2
VII. Revenue Deficit 341589 483254 390810 133.3 114.4 11.3 -19.1
VIII. Effective Revenue 209585 369184 280014 160.1 133.6 16.1 -24.2
Deficit (VII-VI(b))
IX. Fiscal Deficit 535090 602534 572872 117.5 107.1 0.5 -4.9
X. Primary Deficit 92470 256278 193387 253.1 209.1 -7.6 -24.5
Source: Controller General of Accounts. @ Provisional actuals figures. * Gross Tax Revenue is prior to
devolution to the States.
******
14