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Ministry of Finance
Department of Economic Affairs
Economic Division
4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012
MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT
AUGUST 2016
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HIGHLIGHTS
As per the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) 2016-17,
released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on August 31, 2016, the growth rate of GDP in Q1
of 2016-17 was 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.5 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16 and 7.9
per cent in Q4 of 2015-16.
The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices in Q1 of 2016-17
was 7.3 per cent, as compared to the growth rate of 7.2 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16. At the
sectoral level, agriculture, industry and services sectors grew at the rate of 1.8 per cent, 6.0 per
cent and 9.6 per cent respectively in Q1 of 2016-17.
Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on September 1, 2016 was 42.9 million
tonnes, as compared to 51.8 million tonnes on September 1, 2015.
Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was (-) 2.4 per cent in July 2016 as
compared to 4.3 per cent in July 2015. The IIP growth during April-July 2016-17 was (-) 0.2 per
cent as compared to 3.5 per cent during the corresponding period of previous year.
Eight core infrastructure industries grew by 3.2 per cent in July 2016 as compared to growth of
1.3 per cent in July 2015. The growth of these industries during April-July 2016-17 was 4.9 per
cent as compared to 2.2 per cent during the corresponding period of previous year.
As on 19th August 2016, growth of money supply stood at 10.3 per cent on year on year (YoY)
basis as compared to a growth rate of 11.1 per cent recorded in the corresponding period in the
previous year.
Merchandise exports and imports declined by 0.3 per cent and 14.1 per cent (in US dollar terms)
respectively in August 2016 over August 2015. During August 2016, oil imports and non-oil
imports declined by 8.5 per cent and 15.6 per cent repectively over August 2015. During April-
August 2016, merchandise exports declined by 3.0 per cent while merchandise imports declined
by 15.9 per cent.
Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 366.8 billion as on 26th August 2016 as compared to
US$ 360.2 billion at end March 2016. The rupee appreciated against the US dollar and Pound
sterling by 0.4 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively, while depreciated against Japanese Yen
and Euro by 2.4 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively, in August 2016 over the month of July
2016.
The WPI headline inflation increased to 3.7 per cent in August 2016 from 3.5 per cent in July
2016. Conversely, CPI (New Series) inflation decreased to 5.0 per cent in August 2016 from 6.1
per cent in July 2016.
Gross tax revenue during April- July 2016-17 recorded a growth of 26.7 per cent over April-July
2015-16. Tax revenue (net to the Centre) increased by 44.1 per cent during April-July 2016-17.
The Budget Estimate of the fiscal deficit as per cent of GDP at current market price for 2016-17 is
3.5 per cent as compared to 3.9 per cent in 2015-16.
(Narendra Jena)
Economic Officer
jena.narendra@nic.in
11. ECONOMIC GROWTH
As per the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) 2016-17,
released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the growth rate of GDP in Q1 of 2016-17 was 7.1
per cent as compared to the growth of 7.5 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16 and 7.9 per cent in Q4 of
2015-16.
The growth in gross value added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices in Q1 of 2016-17 was
7.3 per cent, as compared to the growth rate of 7.2 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16. At the sectoral
level, agriculture, industry and services sectors grew at the rate of 1.8 per cent, 6.0 per cent and
9.6 per cent respectively in Q1 of 2016-17 (Table 2).
In May 2016, CSO had estimated the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant
(2011-12) prices for the year 2015-16 is estimated at 7.6 per cent as compared to the growth of
7.2 per cent in 2014-15 (Table 1).
The share of total final consumption in GDP at current prices in 2015-16 is estimated at 70.1 per
cent as compared to 68.5 per cent in 2014-15. The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed
capital formation to GDP) declined from 30.8 per cent in 2014-15 to 29.3 per cent in 2015-16.
The saving rate (ratio of gross saving to GDP) for the years 2014-15 and 2013-14 was 33.0 per
cent as compared to 33.8 per cent in 2012-13. The investment rate (gross capital formation to
GDP) in 2014-15 was 34.2 per cent, as compared to 34.7 per cent and 38.6 per cent respectively
in 2013-14 and 2012-13.
2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT
Rainfall: The country received 797.8 mm of rainfall during the South-West monsoon
season(1st June -20th September, 2016) which was 5 per cent below normal. Out of the total
36 meteorological subdivisions, 3 subdivisions received excess season rainfall, 25
subdivisions received normal season rainfall and the remaining 8 subdivisions received
deficient/scanty/no season rainfall.
All India production of food grains: As per the 1st Advance Estimates of production of major
Kharif crops for 2016-17, the production of kharif food-grains is estimated to be 135.0
million tonnes for the kharif season as compared to 124.0 million tonnes for the kharif
season of 2015-16 (Table 3).
Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 9th September 2016 was 34.2 million tonnes during
Kharif Marketing Season 2015-16 (KMS is under progress) whereas procurement of wheat as on
30th June 2016 was 22.9 million tonnes during Rabi Marketing Season 2016-17 (Table 4).
Off-take: Off-take of rice during the month of April 2016 was 24.2 lakh tonnes. This
comprises 22.8 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month
of May, 2016) and 1.5 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total off-
take was 21.15 lakh tonnes comprising 19.4 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against
the allocation for the month of May 2016) and 1.8 lakh tonnes under other schemes.
Cumulative off-take of food grains during 2016-17 (till April 2016) is 8.5 million tonnes
(Table 5).
Stocks: As on September 1, 2016 stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI were
42.9 million tonnes, as compared to 51.8 million tonnes as on September 1, 2015 (Table 6).
23. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
The overall growth of IIP in July 2016 was (-) 2.4 per cent as compared to the growth of 4.3 per
cent in July 2015. The growth of IIP during April-July 2016 was (-) 0.2 per cent as compared to
the 3.5 per cent growth in the corresponding period of 2015. Contraction in IIP is mainly due to
negative growth in manufacturing particularly, capital goods, and consumer non-durables goods
sector (Table 7).
Mining production grew at 0.8 per cent in July 2016 as compared to 1.3 per cent growth in July
2015. The lower growth in mining sector is due to lower production of crude oil sector.
Manufacturing production declined by 3.4 per cent in July 2016 as compared to 4.8 per cent
growth in the corresponding month of previous year. Growth in manufacturing production
during April-July 2016 was (-) 1.4 per cent as compared to the growth of 4.0 per cent in the
corresponding period of the previous year.
In terms of use based classification, sectors like basic goods, intermediate goods, and consumer
durable goods registered positive growth while capital goods and consumer non-durables
registered negative growth in July 2016.
Basic goods production grew by 2.0 per cent in July 2016 as compared to the growth of 5.4 per
cent in July 2015.
Capital goods production contracted by 29.6 per cent in July 2016, while the production of
intermediate goods increased by 3.4 per cent.
Production of consumer durable goods increased by 5.9 per cent in July 2016, while the
production of consumer non-durable goods declined by 1.7 per cent. Consumer goods
production as a whole registered a growth of 1.3 per cent in July 2016 as compared to the
growth of 1.1 per cent in the corresponding month of previous year.
Eight Core Industries
Eight core industries registered a growth of 3.2 per cent in July 2016 as compared to a growth of
1.3 per cent in July 2015 because of the positive growth in six core sectors. Crude oil and steel
sectors registered a decline. During April-July 2016, the overall growth of the eight core sectors
was 4.9 per cent as compared to the growth of 2.2 per cent in the corresponding period of the
previous year.
Coal production increased by 5.1 per cent in July 2016 as compared to (-)0.1 per cent growth in
July 2015.
During July 2016, production of crude oil declined by (-) 1.8 per cent as compared to the growth
of (-) 0.4 per cent in the corresponding month of last year.
Natural gas and refinery production increased by 3.3 per cent and 13.7 per cent respectively in
July 2016. Fertilizers production grew by 2.5 per cent in July 2016 as compared to 8.6 per cent in
July 2015.
Growth of production of steel declined by (-) 0.5 per cent in July 2016 vis-à-vis July 2015.
Cement production grew by 1.4 per cent in July 2016, same as the growth in July 2015.
3Comparison of Core Industry Growth and IIP Growth
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Some Infrastructure Indicators
The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1,058.0 million at the end of May
2016 to 1,059.9 million at the end of June 2016. The overall tele-density in India stood at 83.2
per hundred individuals at end-June 2016; the urban tele-density was 153.2 and rural tele-
density was 51.4.
The traffic handled in major ports grew by 4.6 per cent, to 264.7 million tonnes in April-August
2016 from 253.1 million tonnes in the corresponding period of pervious year.
Power Sector Scenario
As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation grew by 0.1 per cent in
August 2016. Growth of electricity generation was 5.7 per cent during April-August 2016.
The addition to power generation capacity was 3133.5 MW during April-August 2016, as
compared to 4651.0 MW during April-August 2015. During 2015-16, the addition to
power generation capacity was 23,976.6 MW, as compared to 22,566.3 MW during the
previous year.
The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 305554.2 MW at the end of
August 2016, of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was
69.6 per cent, 14.1 per cent , 14.5 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively.
4. FINANCIAL MARKETS
Money and Banking
Money Supply: As on 19th August 2016 growth of money supply on year on year (YoY) basis
was 10.3 per cent as compared to a growth rate of 11.1 per cent recorded in the corresponding
period in the previous year. As regards the components of money supply, the growth of ‘currency
with the public’ registered a growth of 17.5 per cent in August 2016 as against 10.1 per cent
registered during August 2015. The growth rate of time deposits with banks was 9.0 per cent as on
19th August 2016 as against 11.1 per cent in recorded in the corresponding period a year ago.
4Demand deposits increased by 11.3 percent in August 2016 as against 11.2 percent during the
same period last year. The details of sources of money supply are given in the Table 9.
Growth of Deposits, Credit and Investments by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs)
Growth of aggregate deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) as on 19th August 2016
was 9.2 per cent on YoY basis as compared to 11.3 per cent recorded during the corresponding
date of the previous year. In terms of bank credit, YoY growth was 9.6 per cent as on 19th August
2016 as against 9.1 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago. The YoY growth of
investment in Government and other approved securities by SCBs was 5.7 per cent on 19th
August as compared to 13.4 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Lending and deposit rates
The base lending rate as on 26th August 2016 was 9.30/9.70 percent as compared to 9.70/10.00
percent during the corresponding period a year ago. The term deposit rates for above one year
was 7.00/7.5 per cent on 26th August 2016 as against 7.25/8.00 per cent during the
corresponding period a year ago.
5. EXTERNAL SECTOR
Foreign trade: Merchandise exports and imports declined by 0.3 per cent and 14.1 per cent (in
US dollar terms) respectively in August 2016 over August 2015. During August 2016, oil imports
and non-oil imports declined by 8.5 per cent and 15.6 per cent repectively in this period. During
April-August 2016, merchandise exports declined by 3.0 per cent while merchandise imports
declined by 15.9 per cent (Table 10).
Balance of Payments: The current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to US$ 0.3 billion (0.1 per
cent of GDP) in Q1 of 2016-17, significantly lower than US$ 6.1 billion (1.2 per cent of GDP) in
Q1 of 2015-16. Net invisibles’ earning was US$ 23.5 billion in Q1 of 2016-17 as against US$ 28.0
billion Q1 of the previous year. Net capital inflows, however, decline to US$ 7.3 billion (1.4 per
cent of GDP) in Q1of 2015-16 from US$ 17.6 billion (3.5 per cent of GDP) in Q1 of 2015-16.
Foreign Exchange Reserves: Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 366.8 billion as on 26th
August 2016 as compared to US$ 360.2 billion at end March 2016 (Table 11).
Exchange Rate: The rupee appreciated against the US dollar and Pound sterling by 0.4 per cent
and 0.8 per cent respectively, while it depreciated against Japanese Yen and Euro by 2.4 per cent
and 0.9 per cent respectively in August 2016 over the previous month of July 2016 (Table 12).
External Debt: India’s external debt remains within manageable limits as indicated by the
external debt-GDP ratio of 23.7 per cent at end-March 2016. India’s external debt stood at US$
485.6 billion at end-March 2016, recording an increase of 2.2 per cent over the level at end-
March 2015. Long-term debt was US$ 402.2 billion at end-March 2016 as compared to US$
389.5 billion at end-March 2015. Short-term external debt was US$ 83.4 billion at end-March
2016, as compared to US$ 85.5 billion at end-March 2015.
5Exchange Rate Rupee per US Dollar
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6. INFLATION
The Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPI): The all India CPI inflation (New Series-
Combined) was 5.0 per cent in August 2016 as against 6.1 per cent in July 2016. Food inflation
based on Consumer Food Price Index decreased to 5.9 per cent in August 2016 from 8.4 per cent
in July 2016 on account of fall in inflation of vegetables, pulses & products and meat & fish. CPI
fuel and light inflation declined to 2.5 per cent in August 2016 from 2.7 per cent in the previous
month (Table 16).
Inflation based on CPI-IW for July 2016 increased to 6.5 per cent from 6.1 per cent in the
previous month. Inflation based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL stood at 6.7 per cent and 6.5 per cent
respectively in July 2016 (Table 16).
Wholesale Price Index (WPI): The headline WPI inflation increased to 3.7 per cent in August
2016 from 3.5 per cent in July 2016. WPI food inflation (food articles + food products)
decreased to 9.2 per cent in August 2016 from 11.3 per cent in the previous month mainly on
account of fruits & vegetables. Inflation in fuel & power increased to 1.6 per cent in August 2016
as compared to (-)1.0 per cent in the previous month. Inflation for manufactured products and
non-food manufactured products (core as defined by RBI) stood at 2.4 per cent and 0.6 per cent
respectively in August 2016 as compared to 1.8 per cent and 0.1 per cent in the previous month.
Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data): Food inflation based
on World Bank Food index recorded 7.8 per cent in August 2016 as compared to 3.9 per cent in
6July 2016. Energy prices as measured by the World Bank energy index dropped by 3.2 per cent
YoY and ‘metals & minerals’ increased by 2.0 per cent in August 2016 (Table 15).
Inflation in WPI and CPI
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7. PUBLIC FINANCE
The Budget Estimate of the fiscal deficit as per cent of GDP at current market price for 2016-17
is 3.5 per cent as compared to 3.9 per cent in 2015-16. The Budget estimate for revenue deficit
as per cent of GDP at current market price for 2016-17 is 2.3 per cent, as compared to 2.5 per
cent in 2015-16.
The growth in provisional figures for April-July 2016-17 over April-July 2015-16 are as follows:
Gross tax revenue for the period April- July 2016-17 was ` 3,86,439 crore, recording a
growth of 26.7 per cent over the corresponding period of previous year.
Revenue Receipts (net to Centre) increased by 22.4 per cent in April- July 2016-17 to
` 2,55,766 crore.
Tax revenue (net to Centre) increased to ` 2,21,668 crore in April- July 2016-17, registering
a growth of 44.1 per cent over April-July 2015-16.
Non-tax revenue of ` 34,098 crore registered, decline of 38.2 per cent over April-July 2015-
16.
Non-plan expenditure increased by 3.6 per cent.
Plan expenditure increased by 25.3 per cent.
Total expenditure amounting to ` 6,56,687crore, increased by 9.3 per cent.
78. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN AUGUST 2016
The Union Cabinet approved the rates for Spectrum Usage Charge (SUC) for various bands of
spectrum for which auction will be conducted shortly.
The Union Cabinet approved Motor Vehicle (Amendment) Bill 2016 towards making roads safe and
save lakhs of innocent lives.
The Union Cabinet accepted the major recommendations of the Sub-Group of Chief Minsters on
Rationalization of Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSSs). The Sub-Group had examined 66 CSSs and
recommended that the number of CSSs should not normally exceed 30.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) decided to extend the production subsidy to
sugar mills which achieve expected performance in respect of export of sugar and supply of ethanol.
The CCEA approved for the upgradation of 13 existing Government Medical Colleges / Institutes
under Pradhan Mantri Swasthya Suraksha Yojana.
The CCEA approved a proposal of R&D project for development of Advanced Ultra Super Critical
Technology for thermal Power Plant with an estimated cost of Rs.1554 crore and providing one time
budgetary support of ` 900 crore spread over a period of three years, commencing from 2017-18, to
be provided as plan Gross Budgetary Support to BHEL for implementation of the R&D project.
The Union Cabinet approved for signing of an Agreement and the Protocol between India and Cyprus
for the Avoidance of Double Taxation and the Prevention of Fiscal Evasion with respect to Taxes on
Income.
The CCEA approved for development of 1120 kms of National Highways in the States of Karnataka,
Odisha, Bihar, Rajasthan and West Bengal.
The Union Cabinet approved to create a project development fund with a corpus of `500 Crore for
catalysing Indian economic presence in the Cambodia, Laos Myanmar and Vietnam.
*****
8TABLES
Table 1: Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 Prices) (in per cent)
Growth Share in GVA
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Sector (1st RE) (PE) (1st RE) (PE)
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 4.2 -0.2 1.2 17.5 16.3 15.4
Industry 5.0 5.9 7.4 31.6 31.2 31.3
Mining & quarrying 3.0 10.8 7.4 2.9 3.0 3.1
Manufacturing 5.6 5.5 9.3 17.4 17.1 17.5
Electricity, gas ,water supply &
other utility services 4.7 8.0 6.6 2.2 2.2 2.2
Construction 4.6 4.4 3.9 9.0 8.8 8.5
Services 7.8 10.3 8.9 51.0 52.5 53.4
Trade, hotels, transport,
communication and
broadcasting services 7.8 9.8 9.0 18.4 18.9 19.2
Financial, real estate &
professional services 10.1 10.6 10.3 20.3 21.0 21.6
Public administration, defence
and other Services 4.5 10.7 6.6 12.3 12.7 12.6
GVA at basic prices 6.3 7.1 7.2 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP at market prices 6.6 7.2 7.6 --- --- ---
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO). 1st RE: First Revised Estiamtes, PE: Provisional Estimates.
Table 2: Quarter-wise Growth of GVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (per cent)
Sectors 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2.3 2.8 -2.4 -1.7 2.6 2.0 -1.0 2.3 1.8
Industry 8.0 5.9 3.8 5.7 6.7 6.3 8.6 7.9 6.0
Mining & quarrying 16.5 7.0 9.1 10.1 8.5 5.0 7.1 8.6 -0.4
Manufacturing 7.9 5.8 1.7 6.6 7.3 9.2 11.5 9.3 9.1
Electricity, gas ,water supply & 10.2 8.8 8.8 4.4 4.0 7.5 5.6 9.3 9.4
other utility services
Construction 5.0 5.3 4.9 2.6 5.6 0.8 4.6 4.5 1.5
Services 8.6 10.7 12.9 9.3 8.8 9.0 9.1 8.7 9.6
Trade, hotels, transport, 11.6 8.4 6.2 13.1 10.0 6.7 9.2 9.9 8.1
communication and services
related to broadcasting
Financial, real estate & 8.5 12.7 12.1 9.0 9.3 11.9 10.5 9.1 9.4
professional services
Public administration, defence and 4.2 10.3 25.3 4.1 5.9 6.9 7.2 6.4 12.3
Other Services
GVA at Basic Price 7.4 8.1 6.7 6.2 7.2 7.3 6.9 7.4 7.3
GDP at market prices 7.5 8.3 6.6 6.7 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.9 7.1
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO).
9Table 3: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (1st Adv. Est.)
Crops Production (in Million Tonnes)
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
(4th AE) (1st AE)
Total Foodgrains 257.1 265.0 252.0 252.2 135.0
Rice 105.2 106.7 105.5 104.3 93.9
Wheat 93.5 95.9 86.5 93.5 --
Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 42.9 37.9 32.5
Total Pulses 18.3 19.3 17.2 16.5 8.7
Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 27.5 25.3 23.4
Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 362.3 352.2 305.2
Cotton# 34.2 35.9 34.8 30.1 32.1
Source: DES, DAC&FW, M/o Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. 1st AE: 1st Advance Estimates of Kharif crops only, 4th AE : Fourth
Advance Estimates, # Million bales of 170 kgs. each.
Table 4 : Procurement of Crops in Million Tonnes
Crops 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Rice# 35.0 34.0 31.8 32.2 34.2^ -
Wheat@ 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0 28.1 22.9 β
Total 63.4 72.2 56.9 60.2 62.3 -
Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution ; # Kharif Marketing Season (October-September), @ Rabi Marketing
Season (April-March), ^: Position as on 09.09.2016, β Position as on 30.06.2016.
Table 5: Off-Take of Food Grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
(Till April)
Rice 32.6 29.2 30.7 31.8 4.6
Wheat 33.2 30.6 25.2 31.8 3.9
Total 65.8 59.8 55.9 63.6 8.5
(Rice & Wheat)
Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution
Table 6: Stocks of Food Grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops September 1, 2015 September 1, 2016
1. Rice 13.9 16.5
2. Unmilled Paddy# 3.6 3.2
3. Converted Unmilled Paddy in terms of Rice 2.4 2.2
4. Wheat 35.5 24.2
Total (Rice & Wheat)(1+3+4) 51.8 42.9
# Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state
agencies in terms of rice.
10Table 7: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production
Industry Group April-July 2015-16 April-July 2016-17 July 2015 July 2016
General index 3.5 -0.2 4.3 -2.4
Mining 0.6 2.0 1.3 0.8
Manufacturing 4.0 -1.4 4.8 -3.4
Electricity 2.6 7.1 3.5 1.6
Basic goods 4.9 4.1 5.4 2.0
Capital goods 4.2 -21.3 10.1 -29.6
Intermediate goods 1.7 3.8 2.0 3.4
Consumer goods 2.2 0.7 1.1 1.3
Durables 5.3 7.3 10.5 5.9
Non-durables 0.1 -3.6 -4.4 -1.7
Source: Central Statistics Office.
Table 8: Production Growth (per cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries
Industry April-July 2015-16 April-July 2016-17 July 2015 July 2016
Coal 5.3 5.3 -0.1 5.1
Crude oil -0.7 -2.9 -0.4 -1.8
Natural Gas -4.3 -3.8 -4.4 3.3
Refinery Products 3.9 8.7 2.9 13.7
Fertilizers 4.1 8.6 8.6 2.5
Steel 1.2 2.8 -1.4 -0.5
Cement 1.4 4.6 1.4 1.4
Electricity 2.6 7.1 3.5 1.6
Overall growth 2.2 4.9 1.3 3.2
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, DIPP (Ministry of Commerce & Industry)
Table 9: Broad Money (M3) and its sources
Item Outstanding as on
2016 YoY growth
March 31 August 19 2015 2016
(₹ Billion) Per Cent Per Cent
M3 1,16,176.2 121,102.6 11.1 10.3
Sources
Net Bank Credit to Government 32,384.8 37062.5 9.7 12.1
Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 78,030.7 78,107.0 9.0 9.0
Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector 25,337.2 25,970.2 20.9 7.1
Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public 219.1 226.0 12.0 10.5
Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 19,795.6 20,263.1 12.0 4.7
Source: RBI
Table 10 : Merchandise Exports and Imports (in US$ million)
Item 2015- 2015 2016 % Change 2015-16 2016-17 % Change
16 August (April-August)
Exports 262290 21583 21519 -0.3 111854 108520 -3.0
Imports 381007 33982 29193 -14.1 170234 143189 -15.9
Oil Imports 82944 7368 6744 -8.5 41594 32411 22.1
Non-Oil 298062 26614 22449 -15.6 128641 110779 -13.9
Imports
Trade Deficit - -12399 -7674 - -58380 -34670 -
Source: Provisiona1l 1d8a7ta1 a6s per the Press Note of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry
11Table 11: Foreign Exchange Reserves (in Billion)
End of Financial Year Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation
(Rupees ) (US Dollar) (Rupees ) (US Dollar )
At the end of year (Variation over last year)
2012-13 15884 292.0 823 -2.4
2013-14 18284 304.2 2400 12.2
2014-15 21376 341.6 3093 37.4
2015-16 23787 360.2 2411 18.6
At the end of month (Variation over last month)
April-2015 22110 351.9 733 10.2
May-2015 22437 352.5 328 0.6
June-2015 22660 356.0 222 3.5
July-2015 22580 353.5 -80 -2.5
August-2015 23199 351.4 619 2.1
September -2015 22940 350.3 -259 1.1
October-2015 23025 354.2 85 3.9
November-2015 23285 350.2 260 -3.9
December 2015 23135 350.4 -150 0.1
January 2016 23586 349.6 370 -2.4
February 2016 23744 348.4 158 -1.2
March 2016 23787 360.2 44 11.8
April 2016 24040 363.0 253 2.9
May 2016 24174 361.6 134 -1.4
June 2016 24442 363.5 268 1.9
July 2016 24446 366.5 4 3.0
August 2016* 24463 366.8 17 0.3
Source: RBI * : upto 26th August 2016
Table 12 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency*
US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro
March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951
March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621
March 2015 62.4498 93.4422 0.5190 67.5548
March 2016 67.0581 95.3894 0.5935 74.4543
2015-16
April 2015 62.7532 93.9083 0.5253 67.7934
May 2015 63.8003 98.8205 0.5283 71.2135
June 2015 63.8607 99.3620 0.5165 71.5874
July 2015 63.6350 99.0771 0.5161 70.0292
August 2015 65.0723 101.4870 0.5287 72.5145
2016-17
April 2016 66.4695 95.2721 0.6070 75.4092
May 2016 66.9067 97.2485 0.6148 75.6918
June 2016 67.2969 95.5533 0.6389 75.5728
July 2016 67.2076 88.5198 0.6449 74.3591
August 2016 66.9396 87.7976 0.6606 75.0042
Source: Reserve Bank of India. * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis). ** Data from
March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate.
12Table 13: Balance of Payments (US $ billion)
2014-15 2015-16 2015-16 2016-17
(April-March) Q1 Q1
Exports, f.o.b 316.5 266.4 68 66.6
Imports, c.i.f 461.5 396.4 102.2 90.5
Trade balance -144.9 -130.1 -34.2 -23.8
Net services 76.5 69.7 17.8 15.8
Invisibles (net) 118.1 107.9 28 23.5
Current A/C Balance -26.9 -22.2 -6.1 -0.3
Capital/Finance A/C of Which
Foreign Investment (net) 73.5 31.9 10.2 6.2
FDI (net) 31.3 36 10 4.1
Portfolio (net) 42.2 -4.1 0.2 2.1
Non-Resident Deposits (net) 14.1 16.1 5.9 1.4
Other capital flows (net) -2.5 -4.8 0.8 1.2
Total CapitalA/C (net) 88.3 40.1 17.6 7.3
Reserve Movement (-increase) and (+ decrease) -61.4 -17.9 -11.4 -7
Memo Items/Assumptions
Current Account Balance/GDP (%) -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -0.1
Net Capital Flows/GDP (%) 4.3 1.9 3.5 1.4
Source: Reserve Bank of India
13Table 14: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)*
August 2016 2016-17(Apr.- August 2015 2015-16
Aug.) (Apr.-Aug.)
External Assistance (Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 1,797.9 16,490.2 1,685.2 11,185.7
2) Repayments 1,819.7 10,842.8 1,713.3 9,390.6
3) Interest Payments 306.8 1794.39 215.3 1,322.2
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -21.8 5,647.4 -28.1 1,795.1
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -328.6 3,853.0 -243.3 472.9
External Assistance (Non-Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 442.8 137.7 2,629.5
2) Repayments 82.0 1,649.8 119.7 1,467.0
3) Interest Payments 20.7 236.7 31.1 208.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -82.0 -1,207.0 18.1 1,162.5
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -102.7 -1,443.6 -13.0 954.5
Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 15.4 145.0 14.7 969.2
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 15.4 145.0 14.7 969.2
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 15.4 145.0 14.7 969.2
Non-Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
Grand Total
1) Gross Disbursements 1,813.2 17,078.0 1,837.7 14,792.3
2) Repayments 1,901.7 12,492.6 1,833.0 10,857.5
3) Interest Payments 327.4 2,031.1 246.3 1,530.2
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -88.5 4,585.4 4.7 3,934.8
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -415.9 2,554.4 -241.6 2,404.7
*: Data are provisional. Source: Office of the Controller of Aid, Accounts and Audit, Ministry of Finance
14Table 15: Year-on-Year Global Inflation for Major Groups/Sub-Groups (in Per cent)
August 2015 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016
Energy -50.9 -22.2 -17.8 -3.2
Non-energy -18.2 -1.9 -1.0 2.3
Agriculture -14.3 4.2 1.3 4.1
Beverages -12.1 -2.5 -1.2 0.3
Food -16.8 8.9 3.9 7.8
Raw Materials -8.4 -4.2 -4.1 -3.1
Fertilizers -7.3 -23.5 -25.1 -25.4
Metals & Minerals -28.9 -14.4 -3.4 2.0
Precious Metals -16.1 7.5 20.5 21.6
Source: World Bank
Table 16: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (in per cent)
WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI (NS-Combined)
Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012
2014-15 2.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 5.9
2015-16 -2.5 5.6 4.4 4.6 4.9
Aug-2015 -5.1 4.3 3.0 3.2 3.7
Sep-2015 -4.6 5.1 3.5 3.7 4.4
Oct-2015 -3.7 6.3 4.4 4.7 5.0
Nov-2015 -2.0 6.7 4.9 5.0 5.4
Dec-2015 -1.1 6.3 5.7 5.8 5.6
Jan-2016 -1.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.7
Feb-2016 -0.9 5.5 5.0 5.3 5.3
Mar-2016 -0.5 5.5 5.0 5.1 4.8
Apr-2016 0.8 5.9 5.3 5.6 5.5
May-2016 1.2 6.6 6.0 6.1 5.8
June-2016 2.1 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.8
July-2016 3.5 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.1
Aug-2016 3.7 5.0
Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI (New Series-Combined) inflation for last one month are provisional.
Source: Office of Economic Adviser- DIPP, Labour Bureau and Central Statistics Office.
15Table 17: Fiscal Indicators- Rolling Targets as Percentage of GDP
(at current market prices)
2014-15 Revised Provisional Budget Targets for
Estimates Actual Estimates
2015-16 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Gross Tax Revenue 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1
Tax Revenue (net to Centre) 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2
Non-Tax Revenue 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.8
Total Expenditure 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.1 12.6 12.2
Major Subsidy 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3
Total Defence Expenditure 1.76 1.66 1.66 1.65 1.6 1.6
Total outstanding liabilities at # 47.6 # 47.1 46.8 44.4
the end of the year
Revenue Deficit 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.3
Effective Revenue Deficit 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.0
Fiscal Deficit 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.0 3.0
Notes:
1. The ratio to GDP at current market prices are based on the CSO’s National Accounts 2011-12 Series.
2. “Total outstanding liabilities” include external public debt at current exchange rates. For projections,
constant exchange rates have been assumed. Liabilities do not include part of NSSF and total MSS
liabilities which are not used for Central Government deficit.
# Note available
16Table 18: Trends in Central Government Finances : April-July 2016-17
Items Budget Growth Growth
Estimates April-July (April- (April-
July) July)
2016-17 2015-16 2016-17
2015-16 2016-17
(Rs. Crore) (Rs Crore) (Rs. Crore)
(Per cent) (Per cent)
1 2 3 4 5 6
1.Revenue Receipts 1377022 208982 255766 19.0 22.4
Gross tax revenue⃰ 1630888 305110 386439 17.9 26.7
Tax (net to Centre) 1054101 153851 221668 4.8 44.1
Non Tax Revenue 322921 55131 34098 91.6 -38.2
2.Capital Receipts 601038 391997 400921 19.4 2.3
of which
Recovery of loans 10634 3514 4251 7.7 21.0
Other Receipts 56500 3380 3183 2670.5 -5.8
Borrowings and other liabilities 533904 385103 393487 18.5 2.2
3.Total Receipts (1+2) 1978060 600979 656687 19.3 9.3
4.Non-Plan Expenditure 1 4 2 8 0 5 0 443144 458936 19.2 3.6
(a)+(b)
(a) Revenue Account 1327408 408749 429121 20.9 5.0
of which:
Interest payments 492670 127637 140479 7.6 10.1
Major Subsidies 231782 89794 105879 7.4 17.9
Pensions 123368 39781 36867 36.6 -7.3
(b) Capital Account 100642 34395 29815 1.6 -13.3
5.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 550010 157835 197751 19.5 25.3
(i) Revenue Account 403628 106204 156283 2.1 47.2
(ii) Capital Account 146382 51631 41468 84.1 -19.7
6.Total Expenditure 1978060 600979 656687 19.3 9.3
(4)+(5)=(a)+(b)
(a)Revenue Expenditure 1731036 514953 585404 16.5 13.7
(b)Of which Grants for creation of 166840 43389 63211 19.8 45.7
Capital Assets
(c)Capital Expenditure 247024 86026 71283 39.0 -17.1
7.Revenue Deficit 354014 305971 329638 14.8 7.7
8.Effective Revenue Deficit (7-6(b)) 187174 262582 266427 14.1 1.5
9.Fiscal Deficit 533904 385103 393487 18.5 2.2
10.Primary Deficit 41234 257466 253008 24.8 -1.7
Source: Controller Genral of Accounts, *: Gross Tax Revenue is prior to devolution to the States.
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