Monthly Economic Review February 2012

Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division 4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT FEBRUARY 2012 HIGHLIGHTS  The overall growth of GDP at factor cost at constant prices, as per Advanced Estimates, is estimated at 6.9 per cent in 2011-12 as compared to the revised growth of 8.4 per cent during 2010-11. The growth in real GDP is placed at 6.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2011-12.  The cumulative rainfall received for the country as a whole, during the pre-monsoon, 2012 (March 1 - March 31), has been below as on 14.03.2012.  Food grains (rice and wheat) stocks held by FCI and State agencies were 55.39 million tonnes as on January 1, 2012.  Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was 6.8 per cent during January 2012 as compared to 7.5 per cent in January 2011. During April-January 2011-12, IIP growth was 4.0 per cent as compared to 8.3 per cent during 2010-11.  Eight core Infrastructure industries grew by 0.5 per cent in January 2012 as compared to the growth of 6.4 per cent in January 2011. During April-January 2011-12, these sectors grew by 4.1 per cent as compared to 5.7 per cent during April-January 2010-11.  Broad money (M ) (up to February 24, 2012) increased by 11.2 per cent as compared to 3 13.6 per cent during the corresponding period of the last year. The year-on-year growth, as on February 24, 2012 was 13.5 per cent as compared to 16.7 per cent last year.  Exports, in US dollar terms increased by 10.10 per cent and imports increased by 20.25 percent, during January 2012 over January 2011. The cumulative growth for April- January 2011 was 23.47 per cent and 29.40 per cent for exports imports respectively.  Foreign Currency Assets stood at US$ 260.9 billion at end February 2012 as compared to US$ 272.2 billion at end February 2011.  Rupee appreciated against US dollar, Pound Sterling, Japanese Yen and Euro in the month of February 2012 over January 2012.  Year-on-year inflation in terms of Wholesale Price Index was 6.95 per cent for the month of February 2012 as compared to 9.54 per cent in the corresponding month last year.  Gross tax revenues of the Centre April 2011-January 2012 have increased by 12 per cent in comparison to the corresponding period in the previous year and are 7 per cent of GDP. Service tax (37 per cent growth), taxes on income (18 per cent) and custom duties (15 per cent) are the main contributors to the growth in tax revenues.  As a proportion of budget estimate, fiscal deficit during April 2011- January 2012 was 105.4 per cent and revenue deficit was 108.8 per cent. (J.K. Rathee) Assistant AdviserECONOMIC GROWTH As per the latest Advanced Estimates (AE) of Central Statistics Office (CSO), the growth in GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices was estimated at 6.9 per cent in 2011-12 as compared to 8.4 per cent in 2010-11 (Quick Estimate). At disaggregated level, this (AE 2011-12) comprises growth of 2.5 per cent in agriculture and allied activities, 3.9 per cent in industry and 9.4 per cent in services as compared to a growth of 7.0 per cent, 7.2 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively during 2010-11.The growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is placed at 6.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2011-12; agriculture grew by 2.7 per cent; industry by 2.6 per cent and services by 8.9 per cent. Table 1: Growth of GDP at factor cost by economic activity (at 2004-05 prices) Industry Growth Percentage share in GDP 2009- 2010- 2011- 2009- 2010- 2011- 10PE 11QE 12AE 10PE 11QE 12AE 1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1.0 7.0 2.5 14.7 14.5 13.9 2 Industry 8.4 7.2 3.9 28.1 27.8 27.0 a Mining & quarrying 6.3 5.0 -2.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 b Manufacturing 9.7 7.6 3.9 16.0 15.8 15.4 c Electricity, gas & water supply 6.3 3.0 8.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 d Construction 7.0 8.0 4.8 7.9 7.9 7.7 3 Services 10.5 9.3 9.4 57.2 57.7 59.0 a Trade, hotels, transport & communication 10.3 11.1 11.2 26.6 27.2 28.3 b Financing , insurance, real estate & business services 9.4 10.4 9.1 17.1 17.4 17.8 c Community, social & personal services 12.0 4.5 5.9 13.5 13.1 12.9 4 GDP at factor cost 8.4 8.4 6.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 PE: Provisional Estimates; QE: Quick Estimates; AE: Advance d Estimates Table 2: Quarterly Estimate of GDP (Year-on-year in per cent) 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Items Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 1. Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1.6 2.5 -1.4 1.1 3.1 4.9 11.0 7.5 3.9 3.2 2.7 Industry 5.3 7.7 9.7 12.4 8.3 5.7 7.6 6.1 5.0 3.2 2.6 2. Mining & quarrying 7.5 7.0 5.4 8.9 6.9 7.3 6.1 1.7 1.8 -2.9 -3.1 3. Manufacturing 5.4 8.9 11.3 15.2 9.1 6.1 7.8 5.5 7.2 2.7 0.4 4. Electricity, gas & water supply 5.9 7.0 4.0 7.3 2.9 0.3 3.8 7.8 7.2 9.8 9.0 5. Construction 4.4 5.8 9.2 9.2 8.4 6.0 8.7 8.2 1.2 4.3 7.2 Services 10.2 12.5 9.3 10.2 10.0 9.1 7.7 8.7 10.0 9.3 8.9 6. Trade, hotels, transport & communication 8.4 10.3 10.6 13.7 12.7 10.8 9.8 9.3 12.7 9.8 9.2 7. Financing, insurance, real estate & bus. 11.2 10.6 8.3 6.3 10.0 10.4 11.2 9.0 9.0 10.5 9.0 S8.e rCvoicmems unity, social & personal services 13.0 19.3 8.0 8.3 4.4 4.5 -0.8 7.0 5.6 6.6 7.9 9. GDP at factor cost (total 1 to 8) 7.5 9.8 7.4 9.4 8.5 7.6 8.3 7.8 7.7 6.9 6.1 2AGRICULTURE Rainfall: With respect to rainfall situation in India, the year is categorized into four seasons: winter season (January-February); pre monsoon (March-May); south west monsoon (June-September) and post monsoon (October-December). South west monsoon accounts for more than 75 per cent of annual rainfall. The actual rainfall received during the pre-monsoon 2012, as on 14.3.2012 has been 7.5 mm as against the normal at 12.7 mm. All India production of food grains : As per the second advance estimates released by Ministry of Agriculture on 03.02.2012, production of food grains during 2011-12 is estimated at 250.42 million tonnes compared to 244.78 million tonnes in 2010-11(final estimates). Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 2nd January, 2012 (Kharif Marketing Season 2011-12) at 16.48 million tonnes represents an increase of 17.63 per cent compared to the corresponding date last year. Wheat procurement during Rabi Marketing Season 2011-12 is 28.34 million tonnes as compared to 22.51 million tonnes during the corresponding period last year. Table 3: Procurement in Million Tonnes 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Rice(Oct-Sept) 34.10 32.03 34.20 23.1* Wheat(Apr-Mar) 22.69 25.38 22.51 28.34** Off-take: Total 56.79 57.41 56.71 51.44 Off-take of Position as on 9.2.2012. ** Position as on 12.12.2011 rice during the month of December, 2011 was 28.13 lakh tonnes. This comprises 19.50 lakh tonnes under TPDS and 8.63 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total off take was 20.97 lakh tonnes comprising of 15.85 lakh tonnes under TPDS and 5.12 lakh tonnes under other schemes. Stocks: Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on January 1, 2012 were 55.39 million tonnes, which is higher by 17.5 per cent over the level of 47.12 million tonnes as on January 1, 2011. Table 4: Off-take and stocks of foodgrains (Million Tonnes) Off-take Stocks 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12(Up to Dec 2011) 1-Jan, 2011 1-Jan-12 Rice 27.37 29.93 24.18 25.58 29.72 Wheat 22.34 23.07 17.80 21.54 25.68 Total 49.71 53.00 41.98 47.12 55.40 3INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION During January Table 5: Percentage change in Index of Industrial Production Industry 2010-11 2010- 2011- Jan. Jan. 2012, the IIP growth Group 11(Apr- 12(Apr- 2011 2012 was 6.8 per cent as Jan.) Jan.) compared to 7.5 per General index 8.3 8.3 4.0 7.5 6.8 cent growth during Mining 6.3 6.3 -2.6 1.7 -2.7 the corresponding Manufacturing 8.9 8.9 4.4 8.1 8.5 period of previous Electricity 5.3 5.3 8.8 10.5 3.2 year. In Use-based industrial groups manufacturing Basic goods 6.0 6.0 5.7 7.7 1.6 sector, the growth Capital goods 17.0 17.0 -2.8 5.3 -1.5 rate in January 2012 Intermediate goods 8.0 8.0 -1.0 7.4 -3.2 was 8.5 per cent Consumer followed by goods 7.5 7.5 7.4 8.3 20.2 electricity sector 3.2 Durables 13.7 13.7 3.9 12.5 -6.8 per cent. In mining Non-durables 2.8 2.8 10.2 5.0 42.1 sector, the growth was negative. In January 2012, under use-based category, the growth rate in consumer goods was 20.2 per cent followed by basic goods 1.6 per cent. In consumer non-durables sector, the growth was 42.1 per cent. The capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer durables sectors, registered negative growth during January 2012. Table 6: Production growth (per cent) in core Eight core industries: infrastructure-supportive industries The index for eight core January January 2010-11 2011-12 industries (comprising Industry 2011 2012 (Apr-Jan.) (Apr-Jan.) crude oil, petroleum Coal -1.3 7.5 0.6 -1.5 refinery products, coal, Crude oil 10.8 -2.0 11.9 1.5 electricity, cement , steel, Natural Gas -6.3 -8.9 14.4 -8.8 natural gas and fertilizers) Refinery 8.7 -4.6 2.4 3.1 with a weight of 37.9 per Products cent in the IIP grew by 4.1 Fertilizers 5.9 4.0 -0.8 -0.1 per cent during April- Steel 8.7 -2.9 8.4 7.0 January 2011-12, as Cement 1.8 10.6 4.1 6.0 compared to growth rate Electricity 9.7 2.4 5.2 8.6 of 5.7 per cent achieved Overall 6.4 0.5 5.7 4.1 during the corresponding growth period in 2010-11. During the month of January 2012, the overall growth of the core sector industries was 0.5 per cent as compared to the growth of 6.4 per cent during January 2011. During January 2012, the growth in cement was 10.6 per cent followed by coal 7.5 per cent, fertilizers 4.0 per cent, and electricity 2.4 per cent. The four sectors i.e, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products and steel sectors registered negative growth during January 2012. 4MONEY AND BANKING The RBI on March 9, 2012 announced reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks by 75 basis points from 5.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) effective the fortnight beginning March 10, 2012. According to RBI, this reduction will inject around `480 billion of primary liquidity into the banking system. Broad money (M ) (up to February 24, 2012) increased by 11.2 per cent as compared 3 to 13.6 per cent during the corresponding period of the last year. The year-on-year growth, as on February 24, 2012 was 13.5 per cent as compared to 16.7 per cent last year. Table 7. Money Stock: Components and Sources (` Billion) Outstanding as on Variation over Financial Year so far Year-on-Year Item 2011 2012 2010-2011 2011-2012 2011 2012 Mar. 31 Feb. 24 M 64,994.9 72,262.7 13.6 11.2 16.7 13.5 3 Components (i+ii+iii+iv) (i) Currency with the Public 9,142.0 10,159.8 18.0 11.1 19.8 12.2 (ii) Demand Deposits with Banks 7,176.6 6,673.4 –5.5 –7.0 6.5 –1.7 (iii) Time Deposits with Banks 48,639.8 55,418.8 16.2 13.9 17.7 16.0 (iv) ‘Other’ Deposits with Reserve Bank 36.5 10.6 –5.9 –70.9 –2.3 –70.3 Sources (i+ii+iii+iv-v) (i) Net Bank Credit to Government (a+b) 19,827.7 23,266.0 12.2 17.3 16.8 24.2 (a) Reserve Bank 3,965.5 4,883.7 (b) Other Banks 15,862.2 18,382.3 7.9 15.9 8.3 16.9 (ii) Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (a+b) 42,354.1 47,268.2 17.5 11.6 22.7 15.2 (a) Reserve Bank 21.6 34.3 — — — — (b) Other Banks 42,332.4 47,233.9 17.5 11.6 22.9 15.1 (iii) Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector * 13,933.4 14,619.6 7.7 4.9 6.1 5.9 (iv) Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public 127.2 137.2 11.7 7.8 12.7 9.0 (v) Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 11,247.6 13,028.3 17.9 15.8 25.0 29.9 of which: Net Non-Monetary Liabilities of RBI 3,683.5 5,375.7 23.2 45.9 9.4 44.7 *Includes investments in foreign currency denominated bonds issued by IIFC(UK) since March 20, 2009. Note : Government balances as on March 31, 2011 are after closure of accounts. Source: RBI Reserve money (M ) during the financial year 2011-12 (up to March 9, 2012) showed 0 improvement of 2.1 per cent as compared to improvement of 11.8 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. The year-on-year variation revealed an increase of 8.8 per cent as on March 9, 2012, compared to 17.5 per cent on the corresponding date of the previous year. An important source of reserve money, namely, net foreign exchange assets (NFA) of the RBI increased by 7.9 per cent (during the financial year) as on March 9, 2012 as compared to increase of 8.1 per cent in the same period last year. The y-o-y growth 5rate of NFA, was 7.6 per cent as compared to improvement of 7.0 per cent on the corresponding date of the last year. Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs): business in India During the current financial year i.e. 2011-12 (upto February 24, 2012), Bank credit showed improvement of 11.8 per cent as compared to an improvement of 17.5 per cent during the corresponding period of last year. The Non-Food credit during this period recorded increase of 11.6 per cent as compared to increase of 17.6 per cent during the corresponding period of last year. The aggregate deposits with SCBs recorded an increase of 11.7 per cent (as on February 24, 2012) as against an increase of 13.2 per cent in the corresponding period of last year. Table 8. Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India Percentage Variation 2011-12 Financial year so far Year-on-year Outstanding as on Items ( Rs. in crore) 2010-11 2011-12 2011 2012 March 25, February 2011 24, 2012 Bank Credit 3938659 4407520 17.5 11.8 23.3 15.6 Non-Food credit 3874376 4324310 17.3 11.6 28.1 15.5 Aggregate deposits 5204703 5815470 13.2 11.7 16.5 14.3 Investments in Government. And other approved securities 1500039 1744930 7.4 16.2 7.7 17.4 Table 9 : Policy Rates/Interest Rates (per cent per annum) Interest rates (per cent per Item / Week Ended 2011 2012 annum as on March 2, 2012, March 4 March 2 Bank Rate was 9.50 per cent. Cash Reserve Ratio (per cent)(1) 6.00 4.75* Call money rates (borrowing Bank Rate 6.00 9.50 & lending) were 8.97 per cent Repo Rate 6.50 8.50 as compared with 6.91 per Reverse Repo Rate 5.50 7.50 cent on the approximately Prime Lending Rate(2) 8.25 /9.50 10.00-10.75 corresponding date of last Deposit Rate(3) 7.75/9.50 8.50 – 9.25 year. Call Money Rate (Low / High)(4) - Borrowings 6.91 8.97 - Lendings 6.91 8.97 * Revised by RBI on March 9, 2012, which is effective from March 10, 2012. (1) Cash Reserve Ratio relates to Scheduled Commercial Banks (excluding Regional Rural Banks). (2) Prime Lending Rate relates to five major Banks. (3) Deposit Rate relates to major Banks for term deposits of more than one year maturity. (4) Data cover 90-95 per cent of total transactions reported by participants. 6EXTERNAL SECTOR Foreign trade: Exports, in US dollar terms and customs basis, during January 2012 increased by 10.10 per cent and imports increased by 20.25 per cent over January 2011. Oil imports increased by 26.78 per cent and non-oil imports increased by 17.56 percent during January 2012 over January 2011. Table 10 : Exports and imports (in US dollar million) Item 2009-10 2010-11 January % Change in Jan 2012 (Apr-Mar) (Apr-Mar) 2011 2012 Exports 178751 251136 23022 25347 10.10 Imports 288373 369769 33354 40108 20.25 Oil imports 87136 105964 9722 12325 26.78 Non-Oil imports 201237 263805 23632 27783 17.56 Trade balance -109621 -118633 -10332 -14761 Source: Provisional data as per the Press Note of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry Foreign Currency Assets Table 11: Foreign Currency Assets Amount Variation `crore US$ million `crore US$ million At the end of (over last year) March, 2008 1196023 299230 359426 107306 March, 2009 1231340 241676 35317 -57554 March, 2010 1150778 254935 -80562 13259 March, 2011 1225999 274580 75221 19645 2011-12 (over last month) April 2011 1252790 282287 26791 7707 May 2011 1259881 279787 7091 -2500 June 2011 1268744 283708 8863 3921 July 2011 1264787 286410 -3957 2702 August 2011 1317478 286284 52691 -126 Sept. 2011 1350855 276079 33377 -10205 Oct. 2011 1380417 282467 29562 6388 Nov. 2011 1425029 273151 44612 -9316 Dec. 2011 1402670 263313 -22359 -9838 Jan. 2012 1287754 259210 -114916 -4103 Feb. 2012 1276962 260924 -10792 1714 Source: RBI. 7Exchange rate: The rupee appreciated by 4.4 per cent against US dollar, 2.5 per cent against Pound Sterling, 6.4 per cent against Japanese Yen and 1.6 per cent against Euro in the month of February Table 12 : Rupees per unit of foreign currency* 2012 over US Pound Japanese Euro January 2012. dollar Sterling Yen March, 2008 40.3561 80.8054 0.4009 62.6272 March, 2009 51.2287 72.9041 0.5251 66.9207 March, 2010 45.4965 68.4360 0.5018 61.7653 March 2011 44.9684 72.7070 0.5498 62.9660 2011-12 April 2011 44.3700 72.7237 0.5331 64.2505 May 2011 44.9045 73.4103 0.5532 64.4833 J2u0n1e0 2 011 44.8295 72.7881 0.5565 64.5157 July 2011 44.4174 71.6485 0.5591 63.4602 August 2011 45.2538 74.1083 0.5868 64.9380 Sept. 2011 47.6335 75.1168 0.6203 65.4744 Oct. 2011 49.2579 77.4901 0.6411 67.4458 Nov. 2011 50.8564 80.2523 0.6560 68.9058 Dec. 2011 52.6769 82.1329 0.6763 69.2889 Jan. 2012 51.3392 79.5853 0.6672 66.1695 Feb. 2012 49.1671 77.6597 0.6271 65.1006 * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on Monthly average basis). 8External assistance and debt service payments: Gross external aid in April-February 2011-12 is ` 27545 crore as compared to ` 33902 crore during the corresponding period of 2010-11. Net disbursement was ` 13479 crore in 2011-12 compared to ` 21955 crore in 2010-11. Net transfers were ` 10158 crore in 2011-12 compared to ` 18694 crore in 2010-11. Table 13 : External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore) February During the February During the 2012 Financial year 2011- 2011 Financial year 12 (Apr-Feb) 2010-11(Apr-Feb) External Assistance (Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 1,504.15 20,206.44 1,090.79 27,262.94 2) Repayments 1,044.42 12,402.05 860.80 10,709.15 3) Interest Payments 264.69 2,956.27 273.44 2,663.92 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 459.73 7,804.39 229.99 16,553.79 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 195.04 4,848.12 -43.45 13,889.87 External Assistance (Non-Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 2.67 4,652.71 423.19 4,168.36 2) Repayments 82.57 1,663.71 34.74 1,237.62 3) Interest Payments 28.65 365.39 30.68 597.00 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -79.90 2,989.00 388.45 2,930.74 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -108.55 2,623.61 357.77 2,333.74 Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 55.85 2,620.31 125.08 2,330.06 2) Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3) Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 55.85 2,620.31 125.08 2,330.06 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 55.85 2,620.31 125.08 2,330.06 Non-Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 0.00 65.74 0.03 140.45 2) Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3) Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.00 65.74 0.03 140.45 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.00 65.74 0.03 140.45 Grand Total 1) Gross Disbursements 1,562.67 27,545.20 1,639.09 33,901.81 2) Repayments 1,126.99 14,065.76 895.54 11,946.77 3) Interest Payments 293.34 3,321.66 304.12 3,260.92 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 435.68 13,479.44 743.55 21,955.04 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 142.34 10,157.78 439.43 18,694.12 9INFLATION Wholesale Price Index (WPI 2004-05=100): The WPI inflation for the month of January 2012 is reported at 6.95 per cent as against 6.55 per cent last month and 9.54 per cent last year. The revised WPI inflation for December 2011 is 7.74 per cent as against 7.47 per cent reported earlier. Inflation for Primary Articles (Wt 20.12 %) for the month of February 2012 has increased to 6.28 per cent from 2.25 per cent in the last month. It was 15.89 per cent last year. Inflation for Food Articles (Wt 14.34 %) for the month of February 2012 has increased to 6.07 per cent from (-) 0.52 per cent in the last month. Last year it was 10.95 per cent in the corresponding month. This is mainly on account of vegetables (peas, onions, potatoes, tomatoes, cauliflower, cabbage) and egg, meat and fish. The average WPI inflation rate for last 12 months (Mar 2011 to Feb 2012) was 8.99 per cent as compared to 9.61 per cent during corresponding period in 2010-11. The build-up of inflation since March to February 2012 stood at 5.95 per cent as against 8.66 per cent in the corresponding period last year. WPI inflation rates for major subgroups are indicated in Table 14 below. Table 14: Current Price Situation based on Monthly WPI in February 2012 (Base: 2004-05=100) Major groups Weight Cumulative change Inflation (%) Inflation (%) (%) (%) Since March (Average of 12 months) 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 ALL COMMODITIES 100.00 5.95 8.66 6.95 9.54 8.99 9.61 PRIMARY ARTICLES 20.12 7.07 14.29 6.28 15.89 9.91 18.47 Food articles 14.34 7.43 10.82 6.07 10.95 8.14 18.41 FUEL AND POWER 14.91 9.90 9.56 12.83 12.37 13.51 12.38 MANUFACTURED PDT. 64.97 4.50 6.18 5.75 6.26 7.43 5.52 Inflation based on Consumer Price Index: Inflation in Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) stood at 5.3 per cent in January 2012 as compared to 6.5 per cent in the last month. CPI-IW food inflation (weight 46.20%) has declined to 0.49 per cent in January 2012 from 1.97 per cent in the last month. CPI-RL food inflation (weight 66.77%) has declined to 0.50 per cent in January 2012 from 2.37 per cent in last month. Table 15: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI (per cent) WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL Base 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 April-11 9.74 9.41 9.11 9.11 May-11 9.56 8.72 9.63 9.63 June-11 9.51 8.62 9.32 9.14 July-11 9.36 8.43 9.03 9.03 Aug-11 9.78 8.99 9.52 9.71 Sep-11 10.00 10.06 9.43 9.25 Oct-11 9.87 9.39 9.36 9.73 Nov-11 9.46 9.34 8.95 9.14 Dec-11 7.74 6.49 6.37 6.72 Jan-12 6.55 5.32 4.92 5.27 Feb-12 6.95 Note: WPI inflation for Jan and Feb 2012 are provisional 10Table 16: World Commodity Price Data Annual averages Monthly averages Jan- Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Feb Dec Jan Feb Commodity Unit 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2012 Energy Coal, Australia a/ $/mt 98.97 120.94 115.53 109.66 115.14 115.15 Crude oil, average a/ $/bbl 79.04 104.01 109.88 104.23 107.07 112.69 Crude oil, Brent a/ $/bbl 79.64 110.94 115.43 107.91 111.16 119.70 Crude oil, Dubai a/ $/bbl 78.06 106.03 112.96 106.22 109.78 116.15 Crude oil, West Texas Int. a/ $/bbl 79.43 95.05 101.25 98.56 100.29 102.21 Natural gas, a/ $/mmbtu 8.29 10.52 11.29 Europe 11.53 11.45 11.12 Agriculture Beverages Coffee, arabica b/ ¢/kg 432.0 597.6 508.6 521.9 523.0 494.2 Tea, auctions (3) average b/ ¢/kg 288.5 292.1 261.2 269.5 266.9 256.7 Food Coconut oil b/ $/mt 1,124 1,730 1,431 1,439 1,451 1,411 Copra $/mt 750 1,157 955 968 965 945 Groundnut oil b/ $/mt 1,404 1,985 n.a. n.a n.a n.a. Palm oil b/ $/mt 901 1,125 1,084 1,026 1,061 1,106 Palmkernel oil $/mt 1,184 1,648 1,364 1,363 1,366 1,362 Soybean meal b/ $/mt 378 398 377 341 367 387 Soybean oil b/ $/mt 1,005 1,299 1,237 1,203 1,218 1,255 Soybeans b/ $/mt 450 541 505 477 498 512 Grains Barley b/ $/mt 158.4 207.2 212.0 212.5 213.3 213.4 Maize b/ $/mt 185.9 291.7 276.2 258.6 272.8 279.5 Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt 441.5 506.0 n.a 565.5 534.0 n.a Wheat, Canada $/mt 312.4 439.6 380.8 393.7 381.6 379.9 Sugar, world b/ ¢/kg 46.93 5732 52.56 50.79 51.94 53.18 Raw Materials Logs, Malaysia b/ $/cum 278.2 390.5 381.4 387.9 390.5 375.0 Plywood ¢/sheets 569.1 607.5 613.7 615.0 615.0 612.3 Cotton A Index b/ ¢/kg 228.3 332.8 222.3 210.1 222.5 221.7 Rubber RSS3 b/ ¢/kg 365.4 482.3 381.4 338.4 362.6 400.3 Metals and Minerals Aluminum b/ $/mt 2,173 2,022 2176 2,022 2,144 2208 Copper b/ $/mt 7,535 7,565 8241 7,565 8,040 8441 Gold $/toz 1,225 1,642 1697 1,642 1,652 1742 Iron ore, spot, cfr China $/dmt 145.9 136.4 140.3 136.4 140.3 140.4 Steel cr coilsheet c/ $/mt 816 900 900 900 900 900 Source: World Bank – The Pink Sheet 11Public Finance  As a proportion of budget estimate, fiscal deficit during April 2011-January 2012 was 105.4 per cent and revenue deficit was 108.8 per cent. Table 17: Trends in Central Government Finances during April 2011- January 2012 Budget April-January Col.3 as Col. 4 as Per cent Estimates per cent per cent Change over of of preceding year 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 2010-11 2011-12 BE BE (4/3) (` Crore) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)) (8) 1. Revenue Receipts 7,89,892 628,861 549,133 92.2 69.5 48.0 -12.7 Gross tax revenue 9,32,440 578,226 649,520 77.4 69.7 27.5 12.3 Tax (net to Centre) 6,64,457 426,477 458,567 79.9 69.0 27.9 7.5 Non Tax 1,25,435 202,384 90,566 136.6 72.2 120.7 -55.3 2. Capital Receipts 4,67,837 254,668 452,901 59.7 96.8 -29.1 77.8 of which: Recovery of loans 15,020 9,702 15,225 189.2 101.4 89.2 56.9 Other Receipts 40,000 22,744 2,743 56.9 6.9 428.2 -87.9 Borrowings and other 4,12,817 222,222 434,933 58.3 105.4 -36.4 95.7 liabilities 3. Total Receipts (1+2) 12,57,729 883,529 1002,034 79.7 79.7 12.7 13.4 4.Non-Plan Expenditure 8,16,182 610,872 708,073 83.0 86.8 9.7 15.9 (a)+(b) (a) Revenue Account 7,33,558 553,771 634,984 86.0 86.6 6.9 14.7 of which: Interest payments 2,67,986 171,767 205,035 69.1 76.5 9.2 19.4 Major Subsidies 1,34,211 101,452 122,584 93.4 91.3 -4.4 20.8 Pensions 54,521 45,222 46,669 105.6 85.6 14.9 3.2 (b) Capital Account 82,624 57,101 73,089 62.0 88.5 46.0 28.0 5.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 4,41,547 272,657 293,961 73.1 66.6 20.1 7.8 (i) Revenue Account 3,63,604 230,846 248,532 73.3 68.4 20.6 7.7 (ii) Capital Account 77,943 41,811 45,429 72.1 58.3 17.5 8.7 6.Total Expenditure 12,57,729 883,529 1002,034 79.7 79.7 12.7 13.4 (4)+(5)=(a)+(b) (a)Revenue Expenditure 1 0 ,97,162 784,617 883516 81.8 80.5 10.6 12.6 (b) Of which Grants for 1,46,853 38,435 90,069 122.7 61.3 - 134.3 creation of Capital Assets (c)Capital Expenditure 160,567 98,912 118,518 65.9 73.8 32.4 19.8 7. Revenue Deficit 307,270 155,756 334,383 56.3 108.8 -45.2 114.7 8.Effective Revenue 1,60,417 117,321 244,314 47.8 152.3 - 108.2 Deficit(7-6(b)) 9. Fiscal Deficit 4,12,817 222,222 434,933 58.3 105.4 -36.4 95.7 10. Primary Deficit 1,44,831 50,455 229,898 38.0 158.7 -73.8 355.6 Source: Review of Union Government Accounts, January 2012, Ministry of Finance. 12