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Ministry of Finance
Department of Economic Affairs
Economic Division
4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012
MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT
FEBRUARY 2016
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HIGHLIGHTS
As per the Advance Estimates of National Income released by Central Statistics Office on 8th
February 2016, the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices
for the year 2015-16 is estimated to be 7.6 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.2 per cent in
2014-15.
The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices for the year 2015-16
is estimated to be 7.3 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.1 per cent in 2014-15. At the
sectoral level, the growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices for agriculture & allied
sectors, industry and services sectors for the year 2015-16 are estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 7.3
per cent, and 9.2 per cent respectively.
Stocks of foodgrains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on March 1, 2016 were 46.1 million
tonnes, compared to 43.6 million tonnes as on March 1, 2015.
Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was (-) 1.5 per cent in January 2016 as
compared to 2.8 per cent in January 2015. The IIP growth during 2015-16 (April-January) was
2.7 per cent, the same rate as it was in 2014-15 (April-January).
Eight core infrastructure industries grew by 2.9 per cent in January 2016 as compared to
growth of 2.3 per cent in January 2015. The growth of core industries during April-January
2015-16 was 2.0 per cent as compared to growth of 5.3 per cent during April-January 2014-15.
The growth of money supply on year on year basis on 19th February 2016 stood at 11.3 per cent
as compared to 11.2 per cent recorded in the corresponding period a year ago.
Merchandise exports and imports declined by 5.7 per cent and 5.0 per cent (in US dollar terms)
respectively in February 2016 over February 2015. During April-February (2015-16),
merchandise exports and imports declined by 16.7 per cent and 14.7 per cent respectively vis-à-
vis the corresponding period of 2014-15.
Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 348.4 billion in end-February 2016 as compared to US$
349.6 billion in end-January 2016 and US$ 341.6 billion in end-March 2015 The rupee
depreciated against the US dollar, Pound sterling, Japanese Yen and Euro by 1.4 per cent, 0.6 per
cent, 3.5 per cent and 4.3 per cent respectively in February 2016 respectively over January 2016.
The WPI headline inflation in February 2016 remained unchanged at (-) 0.9 per cent as in
January 2016. The CPI headline inflation declined to 5.2 per cent in February 2016 from 5.7 per
cent in January 2016.
The revised estimate (RE) of fiscal deficit and revenue deficit as percentage of GDP at current
market prices for 2015-16 is estimated at 3.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively as
compared to 4.1 per cent and 2.9 percent respectively in 2014-15. Fiscal deficit is budgeted to
be at 3.5 percent of GDP in 2016-17.
(Narendra Jena)
Economic Officer
jena.narendra@nic.in
11. ECONOMIC GROWTH
As per the Advance Estimates released by Central Statistics Office on 8th February 2016, the
growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2015-16
is estimated to be 7.6 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.2 per cent, 6.6 per cent, and 5.6
per cent for 2014-15, 2013-14, and 2012-13 respectively (Table 1).
The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices for the year 2015-16
is estimated to be 7.3 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.1 per cent, 6.3 per cent, and 5.4
per cent respectively for 2014-15, 2013-14, and 2012-13. At the sectoral level, the growth rate of
GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices for agriculture & allied sectors, industry and services
sectors for the year 2015-16 are estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 7.3 per cent, and 9.2 per cent
respectively (Table 1).
According to the quarterly estimates, the growth in GDP in Q3 of 2015-16 (October-December)
was 7.3 per cent, compared to the corresponding growth of 6.6 per cent in 2014-15. Growth
during the first three quarters of 2015-16 (April-December) works out to be 7.5 per cent as
compared to the corresponding growth of 7.4 per cent in 2014-15 (Table 2).
The share of total final consumption in GDP at current prices in 2015-16 is estimated to have
improved to 70.5 per cent from 68.5 per cent in 2014-15. Though the share of fixed investment
rate (gross fixed capital formation to GDP) is expected to decline in 2015-16, its growth rate is
estimated to improve to 5.3 per cent in 2015-16 as compared to 4.9 per cent in 2014-15.
The saving rate (gross saving to GDP) for both the years 2014-15 and 2013-14 was 33.0 per cent
as compared to 33.8 per cent in 2012-13. The investment rate (gross capital formation to GDP)
in 2014-15 was 34.2 per cent, compared to 34.7 per cent and 38.6 per cent in 2013-14 and 2012-
13 respectively.
2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT
Rainfall: The cumulative rainfall received during the period 1st March – 16th March 2016 has
been 19 per cent above normal. The actual rainfall received during this period has been 17.0
mm as against the normal at 14.3 mm. Out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 20
subdivisions received excess season rainfall, 4 subdivision received normal season rainfall and
the remaining 12 subdivisions received deficient/scanty/no season rainfall.
All India production of food grains: As per the 2nd advance estimates released by Ministry of
Agriculture on 15th February 2016, production of foodgrains during 2015-16 is estimated at
253.2 million tonnes compared to 252.0 million tonnes in 2014-15 (Table 3).
Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 17th March 2016 was 29.2 million tonnes during kharif
marketing season 2015-16 and procurement of wheat as on 17th March 2016 was 28.1 million
tonnes during rabi marketing season 2015-16 (Table 4).
Off-take: Off-take of rice in January 2016 was 26.5 lakh tonnes. This comprises 23.6 lakh tonnes
under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month of February, 2016) and 2.9 lakh
tonnes under other schemes. The total off-take of wheat in January 2016 was 34.1 lakh tonnes
comprising 18.2 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month of
February, 2016) and 15.9 lakh tonnes under other schemes. Cumulative off-take of foodgrains
during 2015-16 (till January 2016) was 558.5 lakh tonnes (Table 5).
Stocks: Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on March 1, 2016 were 46.1
million tonnes, compared to 43.6 million tonnes as on March 1, 2015 (table 6).
23. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
The growth of IIP in January 2016 was (-) 1.5 per cent, mainly due to high base effect and
contraction of manufacturing (Table 7).
The mining sector grew at 1.2 per cent in January 2016 as compared to (-) 1.8 per cent in
January 2015.
The manufacturing production declined by 2.8 per cent in January 2016 as compared to a
growth of 3.4 per cent in the corresponding month of the previous year. The industry groups like
electrical machinery & apparatus, publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media, basic
metals, chemicals and chemical products contracted in January 2016.
In terms of use based classification, basic goods, intermediate goods and consumer durables
registered positive growth while capital goods and consumer non-durables registered negative
growth in January 2016.
Basic goods grew by 1.8 per cent in January 2016, mainly due to decrease in the production of
cement, high speed diesel bars & rods, copper & copper products and urea.
The capital goods production contracted by 20.4 per cent in January 2016 due of decline in the
production of items like boilers, three wheelers, grinding wheels, plastic machinery and rubber
insulated cable.
The growth of consumer durables at 5.8 per cent in January 2016 was supported by impressive
growth in gems & jewelry, woolen carpets, colour TV sets, wood furniture and telephone
instruments including mobile phones and accessories.
The production of consumer non-durables declined by 3.1 per cent in January 2016 due to decline
in the production of antibiotics and its preparations; apparels; newspapers; tea and rice.
Eight Core Industries
Eight core industries registered a growth of 2.9 per cent in January 2016 as compared to a growth
of 2.3 per cent in January 2015 (Table 8).
Coal production increased by 9.1 per cent in January 2016 on year-on-year (Y-O-Y) basis as
compared to 0.9 per cent in January 2015.
During January 2016, crude oil production declined by 4.6 per cent as compared to a decline of
2.3 per cent in January 2015. The crude oil production of ONGC and OIL in January, 2016 was
lower by 2.8 per cent and lower by 9.8 per cent respectively than it was in January 2015. The
production of private/joint venture oil companies was 6.5 per cent lower as compared to the
corresponding month of previous year. Natural gas production declined by 15.3 per cent in
January 2016.
Fertilizers production achieved 6.2 per cent growth in January 2016 as compared to 7.1 per cent in
January 2015.
3 Steel production declined by 2.8 per cent in January 2016 over the corresponding period previous
year. Steel production has been declining continuously for the previous seven months.
Cement production increased by 9.0 per cent in January 2016 as compared to 0.2 per cent growth
in January 2015.
Comparison of Core Industry Growth and IIP Growth
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
IIP Growth (%) Core Industry Growth (%)
Some Infrastructure Indicators
The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1036.4 million at the end of
December 2015 to 1043.3 million at the end of January 2016. The overall tele-density in India
stood at 82.3 at end-January 2016; the urban tele-density was 153.0 and rural tele-density was
50.3.
The traffic handled in major ports grew by 4.2 per cent to 550.0 million tonnes in April-February
(2015-16) from 527.9 million tonnes in April-February (2014-15).
Power Sector Scenario
As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation grew by 6.0 in January
2016. Growth of electricity generation was 4.6 per cent during April-January (2015-16).
The addition to power generation capacity was 2295.6 MW in January 2016, as compared
to 2020.0MW in January 2015. The addition to power generation capacity was 13521.6
MW during April-January (2015-16), as compared to13630.4 MW during April-January
(2014-15).
The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 288005 MW as on end January
2016, of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 69.7 per
cent, 14.8 per cent , 13.5 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively.
4. FINANCIAL MARKETS
Money and Banking
Broad Money(M3) or Money Supply: Growth of money supply on year on year basis (YoY) on 19th
February 2016 stood at 11.3 per cent as compared to a growth rate of 11.2 per cent recorded in the
corresponding period a year ago. The growth rate of time deposits was 10.7 per cent on 19th February
42016 as against 11.3 per cent in February 2015. Growth of demand deposits with the banks improved
from 9.6 per cent in February 2015 to 11.2 per cent as on 19th February 2016.
Growth of Deposits, Credit and Investments by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs)
Growth of aggregate deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) in February 2016 was 11.0
per cent on YoY basis (as on February 19), as compared to 11.2 per cent recorded during the
corresponding date of the previous year. In terms of bank credit, YoY growth was 11.6 per cent as on
19th February 2016 as against 9.9 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago. As regards non-food
bank credit, YoY growth as on 19th February 2016 was 8.4 per cent as compared to 10.2 per cent in the
corresponding period of the previous year. The YoY growth of investment in Government and other
approved securities by SCBs was 7.7 per cent on 19th February 2016 as compared to 12.8 per cent in the
corresponding period of the previous year.
Lending and deposit rates
The base lending rate as on 26th February 2016 was 9.30/9.70 percent as compared to
10.00/10.25 percent on 27th February 2016. The term deposit rates for above one year was
7.00/7.90 per cent on 26th February 2016 as against 8.00/8.75 per cent during the
corresponding period a year ago.
5. EXTERNAL SECTOR
Foreign trade:. Exports and imports declined by 5.7 per cent and 5.0 per cent in US dollar terms
in February 2016 over February 2015. During February 2016, oil imports and non-oil imports
declined by 21.9 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively over February 2015.
Balance of Payments: India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to US$ 21.9 billion in
2015-16 (April-December) from US$ 26.1 billion in corresponding period of the previous year.
Foreign Exchange Reserves:: Foreign Exchange Reserves stood at US$ 348.4 billion as at end-
February 2016 as compared to US$ 349.6 billion at end-January 2016.
Exchange Rate: The rupee depreciated against the US dollar, Pound sterling, Japanese Yen and
Euro by 1.4 per cent, 0.6 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 4.3 per in February 2016 respectively over
the previous month of January 2016.
External Debt: India’s external debt debt remains within manageable limits as indicated by the
external debt-GDP ratio of 23.7 per cent at end-March 2015. India’s external debt stood at US$
483.2 billion at end-September 2015, recording an increase of 1.7 per cent over the level at end-
March 2015. However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, external debt at end-September 2015
declined by US$ 291 million from the end-June 2015 level. Long-term debt accounted for 82.2
per cent of total external debt at end-September 2015 (82.0 per cent at end-March 2015). Short-
term external debt was US$ 86.1 billion at end-September 2015, as compared to US$ 85.5 billion
at end-March 2015.
5Exchange Rate Rupee per US Dollar
70.0
68.0
66.0
64.0
62.0
60.0
58.0
56.0
54.0
A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
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India's Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billion)
360.0
350.0
340.0
330.0
320.0
310.0
300.0
290.0
280.0
A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
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6. INFLATION
The Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPIs): The all India CPI inflation (New
Series- Combined) declined to four-month low of 5.2 per cent in February 2016 from 5.7 per
cent in January 2016 on account of sharp fall in food inflation. Food inflation in terms of
Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) dropped to 5.3 per cent in February 2016 from 6.8 per cent
in January 2016 aided by fall in inflation of vegetables, meat & fish, milk & products, oils & fats
and pulses & products. CPI Fuel and light inflation declined to 4.6 per cent in February 2016
from 5.3 per cent in January 2016.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI): The headline WPI inflation remained negative since November
2014 and is placed at (-)0.9 per cent in February 2016. Inflation for food articles for the month
of February 2016 declined significantly to 3.4 per cent from 6.0 per cent in the previous month
mainly on account of vegetables, pulses, and egg, meat & fish. WPI food inflation (food articles +
food products) declined to 3.7 per cent from 5.0 per cent in the previous month. Inflation in fuel
& power stood at (-)6.4 per cent in February 2016 as compared to (-)9.2 per cent in the previous
month. Inflation for Manufactured products and Non-food manufactured products (core as
defined by RBI) stood at (-)0.6 per cent and (-)1.6 per cent respectively in February 2016 as
compared to (-)1.2 per cent and (-)2.0 per cent in the previous month.
6 Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data): Global inflation
continued to be negative for all broad groups. Energy prices as measured by the World Bank
energy index dropped by 41.4 per cent and metals & minerals declined by 20.3 per cent in
February 2016 (Table 14).
Inflation based on WPI and CPI (in per cent)
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
WPI headline WPI food CPI headline CPI food (CFPI)
7. PUBLIC FINANCE
The revised estimate of the fiscal deficit as per cent of GDP at current market prices for 2015-16
is 3.9 per cent as compared to 4.1 per cent in 2014-15. The revised estimate for revenue deficit
as per cent of GDP at current market price for 2015-16 is 2.5 per cent, as compared to 2.9
percent in 2014-15.
The growth in provisional figures for 2015-16 (April-January) over 2014-15 (April-January), is
the following :
Gross tax revenue, at ` 10,57,704 crore, increased by 21.3 per cent in April-January 2015-
16.
Revenue Receipts (net to Centre), at ` 8,81,182 crore, increased by 17 per cent in April-
January 2015-16.
Tax revenue (net to Centre), at ` 6,78,892 crore, increased by 14.1 per cent.
Non-tax revenue, at ` 2,02,290 crore, increased by 27.8 per cent.
Non-plan expenditure increased by 10.3 per cent.
Plan expenditure declined by 0.6 per cent.
Total expenditure, at ` 14,36,340 crore, increased by 7.3 per cent.
8. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS/EVENTS IN FEBRUARY 2016
Government of India approved five projects for increasing competitiveness of the Indian capital
goods sector. These projects relate to machine tools, welding technology, heavy engineering, etc.
The Union Cabinet approved for allowing the Ministry of Railways to form Joint Venture
Companies with the State Governments to mobilize resources for undertaking rail infrastructure
projects in States.
7 The Public Private Project Appraisal Committee and the Empowered Committee cleared six road
projects and one port sector project with estimated project cost totalling Rs. 9672 crore.
The Railway Budget 2016-17 was presented in the Parliament on 25th February 2016 with the
theme “to Reorganise, Restructure and Rejuvenate Indian Railways”.
The Economic Survey 2015-16 was tabled in the Parliament on 26th February 2016.
The Union Budget 2016-17 was presented in the Parliament on 29th February 2016 with stress
on fiscal discipline, expenditure rationalization, relief to small tax payers, continunance of
structural reforms and farm sector.
The Prime Minister launched the National Rurban Mission from Kurubhat, in Rajnandgaon
district of Chhattisgarh. The Rurban Mission would enable cluster based development – with a
“rural soul and urban amenities.”
The Union Cabinet approved establishment of Atal Innovation Mission and Self Employment and
Talent Utilisation in NITI Aayog with appropriate manpower.
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8TABLES
Table 1: Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 Prices) (in per cent)
Growth Share in GVA
2013- 2014- 2015-16 2014- 2015-16
Sector 14 15 (AE) 2013-14 15 (AE)
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 4.2 -0.2 1.1 17.5 16.3 15.3
Industry 5.0 5.9 7.3 31.6 31.2 31.2
Mining & quarrying 3.0 10.8 6.9 2.9 3.0 3.0
Manufacturing 5.6 5.5 9.5 17.4 17.1 17.5
Electricity, gas ,water supply& other utility
services 4.7 8.0 5.9 2.2 2.2 2.2
Construction 4.6 4.4 3.7 9.0 8.8 8.5
Services 7.8 10.3 9.2 51.0 52.5 53.4
Trade, hotels, transport,
communication and services related
to broadcasting 7.8 9.8 9.5 18.4 18.9 19.2
Financial, real estate & professional
services 10.1 10.6 10.3 20.3 21.0 21.5
Public administration, defence and
Other Services 4.5 10.7 6.9 12.3 12.7 12.7
GVA at basic prices 6.3 7.1 7.3 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP at market prices 6.6 7.2 7.6 --- --- ---
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO). AE: Advance Estimates.
Table 2: Quarter-wise Growth of GVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (per cent)
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Sectors Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2.8 3.3 5.7 4.3 2.3 2.8 -2.4 -1.7 1.6 2.0 -1.0
Industry 3.1 3.9 4.0 1.7 8.0 5.9 3.8 5.7 6.8 6.4 9.0
Mining & quarrying 2.2 -3.0 0.5 7.2 16.5 7.0 9.1 10.1 8.6 5.0 6.5
Manufacturing -0.8 0.5 2.4 -0.7 7.9 5.8 1.7 6.6 7.3 9.0 12.6
Electricity, gas ,water supply &
other utility services -2.6 1.0 -1.5 0.4 10.2 8.8 8.8 4.4 4.0 7.5 6.0
Construction 14.
13.3 6 9.9 5.2 5.0 5.3 4.9 2.6 6.0 1.2 4.0
Services 8.7 9.3 7.7 5.4 8.6 10.7 12.9 9.3 9.0 9.4 9.4
Trade, hotels, transport,
communication and services
related to broadcasting 6.8 8.4 9.2 6.9 11.6 8.4 6.2 13.1 10.5 8.1 10.1
Financial, real estate &
14.
professional services
9.8 0 9.1 6.9 8.5 12.7 12.1 9.0 9.3 11.6 9.9
Public administration, defence
and Other Services 9.6 2.9 3.2 1.2 4.2 10.3 25.3 4.1 6.1 7.1 7.5
GVA at Basic Price 5.9 6.7 6.1 4.0 7.4 8.1 6.7 6.2 7.2 7.5 7.1
GDP at market prices 6.2 7.7 6.0 4.4 7.5 8.3 6.6 6.7 7.6 7.7 7.3
9Table 3: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (2ndAdv. Est.)
Crops Production (in Million Tonnes)
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
(2nd AE)
Total Foodgrains 257.1 265.0 252.0 253.2
Rice 105.2 106.7 105.5 103.6
Wheat 93.5 95.9 86.5 93.8
Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 42.9 38.4
Total Pulses 18.3 19.3 17.2 17.3
Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 27.5 26.3
Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 362.3 346.4
Cotton 34.2 35.9 34.8 30.7
Source: DES, DAC&FW, M/o Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, 2ndAE : Second Advance Estimates
Table 4 : Procurement of Crops in Million Tonnes
Crops 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Rice# 34.2 35.0 34.0 31.8 32.2 29.2 β
Wheat@ 22.5 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0 28.1β
Total 56.7 63.4 72.2 56.9 60.2 57.3
Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution ; # Kharif Marketing Season (October-
September), @ Rabi Marketing Season (April-March), β Position as on 17.03.2016.
Table 5: Off-Take of Food Grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
(Till January)
Rice 32.6 29.2 30.7 28.9
Wheat 33.2 30.6 25.2 26.9
Total 65.9 59.8 55.9 55.8
(Rice & Wheat)
Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution
Table 6: Stocks of Food Grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops March 1, 2015 March 1, 2016
1. Rice 15.2 19.4
2. Unmilled Paddy# 13.2 14.6
3. Converted Unmilled Paddy in terms of 8.8 9.8
Rice
4. Wheat 19.5 16.9
Total (Rice & Wheat)(1+3+4) 43.6 46.1
Source: FCI ; # Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI
& state agencies in terms of rice.
10Table 7: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production
Industry Group April-Jan. 2014-15 April-Jan. 2015-16 Jan. 2015 Jan. 2016
General index 2.7 2.7 2.8 -1.5
Mining 1.5 2.1 -1.8 1.2
Manufacturing 1.9 2.5 3.4 -2.8
Electricity 9.4 4.7 3.3 6.6
Basic goods 7.7 3.2 4.8 1.8
Capital goods 5.8 -0.6 12.4 -20.4
Intermediate goods 1.6 2.0 0.1 2.7
Consumer goods -4.6 3.5 -1.9 0.0
Durables -14.3 11.6 -5.7 5.8
Non-durables 2.1 -1.2 0.3 -3.1
Source: CSO.
Table 8: Production Growth (per cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries
Industry April-Jan. 2014-15 April-Jan. 2015-16 Jan. 2015 Jan. 2016
Coal 8.4 5.1 0.9 9.1
Crude oil -1.0 -1.2 -2.3 -4.6
Natural Gas -5.0 -4.0 -6.0 -15.3
Refinery Products 0.7 2.7 4.7 4.8
Fertilizers -0.5 9.7 7.1 6.2
Steel 6.6 -2.0 3.4 -2.8
Cement 7.0 3.0 0.2 9.0
Electricity 9.3 4.2 3.3 6.0
Overall growth 5.3 2.0 2.3 2.9
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, DIPP (Ministry of Commerce & Industry)
Table 9: Sources of Change in Money Stock (` In billion)
Outstanding as on Year-on-Year
March 31 February 19 (per cent)
2014-15 2015-16 2015 2016
1. M3(1.1.+1.2+1.3+1.4) 1,05,456 1,15,808 11.2 11.3
2. Sources of change in money stock (M )
3
2.1 Net Bank Credit to Government 30,062 33,249 3.5 6.1
2.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 70,396 76,942 9.7 11.2
2.3 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector 22,507 25,107 13.3 17.4
2.4 Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public 194 213 12.2 10.6
2.5 Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 17,703 19,703 –3.9 9.3
2.5.1 Net Non-Monetary Liabilities of RBI 7,853 9,777 –8.5 20.1
Source: RBI
11Table 10 : Exports and Imports (in US$ million)
Item 2014-15 2015 2016 % Change 2014-15 2015-16 % Change in
in February Apr-Feb,
2016 2015-16
February April-February
Exports 310338 21983 20739 -5.7 286306 238418 -16.7
Imports 448033 28725 27280 -5.0 412605 351807 -14.7
Oil Imports 138326 6106 4768 -21.9 130907 77862 -40.5
Non-Oil 309708 22619 22513 -0.5 281698 273944 -2.8
Imports
Trade Deficit -137695 -6742 -6542 - -126299 -113389 -
Source: Provisional data as per the Press Note of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Table 11: Foreign Exchange Reserves (in Billion)
End of Financial Year Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation
(Rupees ) (US Dollar) (Rupees ) (US Dollar )
At the end of year (Variation over last year)
2012-13 15884 292.0 823 -2.4
2013-14 18284 304.2 2400 12.2
2014-15 21376 341.6 3093 37.4
At the end of month (Variation over last month)
April-2015 22110 351.9 733 10.2
May-2015 22437 352.5 328 0.6
June-2015 22660 356.0 222 3.5
July-2015 22580 353.5 -80 -2.5
August-2015 23199 351.4 619 2.1
September -2015 22940 350.3 -259 1.1
October-2015 23025 354.2 85 3.9
November-2015 23285 350.2 260 -3.9
December 2015 23135 350.4 150 0.1
January 2016 23586 349.6 370 -2.4
February 2016 23744 348.4 158 -1.2
Source: RBI
Table 12 :Rupee per unit of foreign currency*
US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro
March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951
March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621
2015-16
Apr-2015 62.7532 93.9083 0.5253 67.7934
May-2015 63.8003 98.8205 0.5283 71.2135
Jun-2015 63.8607 99.3620 0.5165 71.5874
Jul-2015 63.6350 99.0771 0.5161 70.0292
Aug-2015 65.0723 101.4870 0.5286 72.5145
Sep-2015 66.2178 101.6029 0.5515 74.3909
Oct-2015 65.0580 99.7563 0.5419 73.0629
Nov- 2015 66.1171 100.6188 0.5401 71.0917
Dec-2015 66.5955 99.9353 0.5468 72.4567
Jan- 2016 67.2523 97.1132 0.5687 73.0789
Feb- 2016 68.2377 97.6560 0.5940 75.7678
Source: Reserve Bank of India, * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis), ** Data from
March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate.
12Table 13: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)*
February FY 2015-16 February FY 2014-15
2016 2015
External Assistance (Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 1825.6 26139.1 1897.7 24466.7
2) Repayments 1792.2 20950.1 1663.7 18684.6
3) Interest Payments 259.7 3272.1 221.0 3233.8
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 33.4 5189.0 233.9 5782.1
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -226.3 1916.9 12.9 2548.4
External Assistance (Non-Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 4210.7 434.2 4582.2
2) Repayments 11.4 3318.0 116.7 3913.0
3) Interest Payments 9.4 435.9 30.1 449.1
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -11.4 892.7 317.5 669.2
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -20.8 456.8 287.5 220.1
Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 1.7 1829.8 4.9 1411.0
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 1.7 1829.8 4.9 1411.0
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 1.7 1829.8 4.9 1411.0
Non-Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 48.8 0.0 31.6
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 48.8 0.0 31.6
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 48.8 0.0 31.6
Grand Total
1) Gross Disbursements 1827.4 32228.4 2336.8 30491.5
2) Repayments 1803.6 24268.1 1780.4 22597.5
3) Interest Payments 269.1 3708.0 251.1 3682.9
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 23.8 7960.3 556.4 7893.9
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -245.3 4252.4 305.3 4211.1
*: Data are provisional. Source: Office of the Controller of Aid, Accounts and Audit, Ministry of Finance
Table 14: Year-on-Year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (in per cent)
February 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016
Energy -46.0 -39.1 -35.7 -41.4
Non-energy -12.8 -16.5 -15.7 -12.8
Agriculture -12.0 -12.1 -12.0 -9.7
Beverages -0.2 -6.1 -11.3 -10.2
Food -14.5 -15.8 -14.5 -10.9
Raw Materials -10.7 -5.0 -5.1 -6.1
Fertilizers -4.5 -11.0 -16.3 -18.1
Metals & Minerals -16.0 -28.4 -25.2 -20.3
Precious Metals -8.4 -11.4 -13.7 -4.0
Source: World Bank
13Table 15: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (in per cent)
WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI (NS-Combined)
Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012
Feb-2015 -2.2 6.3 6.1 6.2 5.4
Mar-2015 -2.3 6.3 5.2 5.5 5.3
Apr-2015 -2.4 5.8 4.4 4.7 4.9
May-2015 -2.2 5.7 4.4 4.6 5.0
Jun-2015 -2.1 6.1 4.5 4.7 5.4
Jul-2015 -4.0 4.4 2.9 3.2 3.7
Aug-2015 -5.1 4.3 3.0 3.2 3.7
Sep-2015 -4.6 5.1 3.5 3.7 4.4
Oct-2015 -3.7 6.3 4.4 4.7 5.0
Nov-2015 -2.0 6.7 4.9 5.0 5.4
Dec-2015 -1.1 6.3 5.7 5.8 5.6
Jan-2016 -0.9 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.7
Feb-2016 -0.9 - 5.0 5.3 5.2
Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI (New Series-Combined) inflation for last one month are
provisional.
Source: Office of Economic Adviser- DIPP, Labour Bureau and Central Statistics Office.
Table 16: Fiscal Indicators- Rolling Targets as Percentage of GDP
(at current market prices)
Revised Budget Targets for
Estimates Estimates
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Effective Revenue Deficit 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.0
Revenue Deficit 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.3
Fiscal Deficit 3.9 3.5 3.0 3.0
Gross Tax Revenue 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.1
Tax Revenue (net to Centre) 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2
Non-Tax Revenue 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.8
Total Expenditure 13.2 13.1 12.6 12.2
Major Subsidy 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3
Total Defence Expenditure 1.66 1.65 1.6 1.6
Total outstanding liabilities at the end of the year 47.6 47.1 46.8 44.4
Notes:
1. The ratio to GDP at current market prices are based on the CSO’s National Accounts 2011-12 Series.
2. “Total outstanding liabilities” include external public debt at current exchange rates. For projections,
constant exchange rates have been assumed. Liabilities do not include part of NSSF and total MSS
liabilities which are not used for Central Government deficit.
14Table 17: Trends in Central Government Finances : April-January, (2015-16)
Revied April-January Col.3 as Col.4 as Per cent change
Estimates (` Crore) per per cent over preceding
( ` Crore) cent of of year
2014- 2015-16
2015-16 2014-15 2015-16@ 15 RE RE 2014- 2015-
15 16
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
I. Revenue Receipts 1206084 753107 881182 66.9 73.1 4.3 17.0
Gross tax revenue* 1459611 872084 1057704 69.7 72.5 6.2 21.3
Tax (net to Centre) 947508 594797 678892 65.5 71.7 3.3 14.1
Non Tax Revenue 258576 158310 202290 72.7 78.2 8.5 27.8
II. Capital Receipts 579307 585161 555158 105.5 95.8 6.8 -5.1
of which
Recovery of loans 18905 9954 10011 91.4 53.0 2.7 0.6
Other Receipts 25312 7068 12866 22.5 50.8 28.4 82.0
Borrowings and other 535090 568139 532281 110.8 99.5 6.6 -6.3
liabilities
III. Total Receipts (I+II) 1785391 1338268 1436340 79.6 80.4 5.4 7.3
IV.Non-Plan Expenditure 1 3 0 8 1 9 4 9 6 8 3 0 8 1 0 6 8419 79.8 81.7 7.5 10.3
(a)+(b)
(a) Revenue Account 1212669 900857 977970 80.3 80.6 10.6 8.6
of which:
Interest payments 442620 312260 341634 75.9 77.2 9.4 9.4
Major Subsidies 241857 231788 212864 91.3 88.0 11.8 -8.2
Pensions 95731 76133 77335 93.2 80.8 26.7 1.6
(b) Capital Account 95525 67451 90449 73.9 94.7 -21.9 34.1
V.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 477197 369960 367921 79.1 77.1 0.2 -0.6
(i) Revenue Account 335004 293756 249386 80.1 74.4 2.6 -15.1
(ii) Capital Account 142193 76204 118535 75.4 83.4 -7.9 55.5
VI. Total Expenditure 1785391 1338268 1436340 79.6 80.4 5.4 7.3
(IV)+(V)
(a) Revenue Expenditure 1 547673 1194613 1227356 80.2 79.3 8.5 2.7
(b) of which Grants for 132004 102208 99268 77.5 75.2 1.0 -2.9
creation of Capital Assets
(c) Capital Expenditure 237718 143655 208984 74.7 87.9 -15.1 45.5
VII. Revenue Deficit 341589 441506 346174 121.8 101.3 16.5 -21.6
VIII. Effective Revenue 209585 339298 246906 147.1 117.8 22.2 -27.2
Deficit (VII-VI(b))
IX. Fiscal Deficit 535090 568139 532281 110.8 99.5 6.6 -6.3
X. Primary Deficit 92470 255879 190647 252.7 206.2 3.4 -25.5
Source: Controller General of Accounts. @ Provisional actuals figures. * Gross Tax Revenue is prior to
devolution to the States.
******
15