Monthly Economic Review January 2013

Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division 4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT JANUARY 2013 HIGHLIGHTS  The overall growth of GDP at factor cost at constant prices, as per Advance Estimates, is estimated at 5.0 per cent in 2012-13 as compared to the growth of 6.2 per cent during 2011- 12 (First Revised Estimates). The growth rate for the first half (H1) of the current financial years stands at 5.4 per cent.  The cumulative rainfall received for the country as a whole, during the period 1st January – 13th February 2013, has been 17% below normal.  Food grains (rice and wheat) stocks held by FCI and State agencies were 66.19 million tonnes as on February 1, 2013.  Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was (-) 0.6 per cent during December 2012 as compared to 2.7 per cent in December 2011. During April- December 2012-13, IIP growth was 0.7 per cent as compared to 3.7 per cent in April- December 2011-12.  Eight core Infrastructure industries registered a growth of 2.6 per cent in December 2012 as compared to growth of 4.9 per cent in December 2011. During April- December 2012-13, these sectors grew by 3.3 per cent as compared to 4.8 per cent during April- December 2011- 12.  Broad money (M ) for 2012-13 (up to January 25, 2013) increased by 10.1 per cent as 3 compared to 10.5 per cent during the corresponding period of the last year. The year-on-year growth, as on January 25, 2013 was 12.7 per cent as compared to 14.8 per cent in the previous year.  Exports and imports, in US dollar terms, increased by 0.8 per cent and 6.1 per cent respectively, during January 2013 over January 2012. The cumulative growth in exports and imports during 2012-13 (April-January) was (-) 4.9 per cent and 0.01 per cent respectively.  Foreign Currency Assets stood at US$ 262.5 billion in end January 2013 as compared to US$ 259.2 billion in end January 2012.  Rupee appreciated against US dollar, Pound sterling and Japanese yen and depreciated against Euro in the month of January 2013 over December 2012.  The WPI inflation for all commodities for the month of January 2013 has declined to 6.62 per cent from 7.18 per cent in the previous month.  Gross tax revenue at Rs. 681,345 crore during April-December 2012 registered a growth of 15 per cent compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.  Tax revenue (net to Centre) at Rs. 484,156 crore during April- December 2012 registered a growth of 15.2 per cent.  As a proportion of budget estimate, fiscal deficit during April–December 2012 was 78.8 per cent and revenue deficit was 85.1 per cent. (RANGEET GHOSH) Assistant DirectorECONOMIC GROWTH As per the Advance Estimates of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05 prices) is estimated at 5.0 per cent in 2012-13 with agriculture, industry and services registering growth rates of 1.8 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively. As per the First Revised Estimates, the growth in GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices is estimated at 6.2 per cent in 2011-12. At disaggregated level, this (First Revised 2011-12) comprises growth of 3.6 per cent in agriculture and allied activities, 3.5 per cent in industry and 8.2 per cent in services. The growth in GDP is placed at 5.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2012-13. Table 1: Growth of GDP at factor cost by economic activity (at 2004-05 prices) Industry Growth Percentage share in GDP 2010-11 2011-121R 2012-13AE 2010-11 2011-121R 2012-13AE 1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 7.9 3.6 1.8 14.5 14.1 13.7 2 Industry 9.2 3.5 3.1 28.2 27.5 27.0 a Mining & quarrying 4.9 -0.6 0.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 b Manufacturing 9.7 2.7 1.9 16.2 15.7 15.2 c Electricity, gas & water supply 5.2 6.5 4.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 d Construction 10.2 5.6 5.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 3 Services 9.8 8.2 6.6 57.3 58.4 59.3 a Trade, hotels, transport & communication 12.3 7.0 5.2 27.3 27.5 27.5 b Financing , insurance, real estate & business services 10.1 11.7 8.6 17.2 18.1 18.7 c Community, social & personal services 4.3 6.0 6.8 12.8 12.8 13.0 4 GDP at factor cost 9.3 6.2 5.0 100 100 100 1R: 1st Revised Estimates; AE: Advance Estimates. Table 2 : Quarterly Estimate of GDP (Year-on-year in per cent) 20 10-11 2011-12 2012-13 Industry Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 3.1 4.9 11.0 7.5 3.7 3.1 2.8 1.7 2.9 1.2 Industry 8.3 5.7 7.6 7.0 5.6 3.7 2.5 1.9 3.6 2.8 2. Mining & quarrying 6.9 7.3 6.1 0.6 -0.2 -5.4 -2.8 4.3 0.1 1.9 3. Manufacturing 9.1 6.1 7.8 7.3 7.3 2.9 0.6 -0.3 0.2 0.8 4. Electricity, gas & water supply 2.9 0.3 3.8 5.1 8.0 9.8 9.0 4.9 6.3 3.4 5. Construction 8.4 6.0 8.7 8.9 3.5 6.3 6.6 4.8 10.9 6.7 Services 10.0 9.1 7.7 10.6 10.2 8.8 8.9 7.9 6.9 7.2 6. Trade, hotels, transport & communication 12.6 10.6 9.7 11.6 13.8 9.5 10.0 7.0 4.0 5.5 7. Financing, insurance, real estate & Buss. Services 10.0 10.4 11.2 10.0 9.4 9.9 9.1 10.0 10.8 9.4 8. Community, social & personal services 4.4 4.5 -0.8 9.5 3.2 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.9 7.5 9. GDP at factor cost (total 1 to 8) 8.5 7.6 8.2 9.2 8.0 6.7 6.1 5.3 5.5 5.3 Source; CSO. 2AGRICULTURE Rainfall: With respect to rainfall situation in India, the year is categorized into four seasons: winter season (January-February); pre monsoon (March-May); south west monsoon (June-September) and post monsoon (October-December). South west monsoon accounts for more than 75 per cent of annual rainfall. The actual rainfall received during the winter season 2013, as on 13.2.2013 has been 22.7 mm as against the normal at 27.5 mm. All India production of food grains : As per the 2nd advance estimates released by Ministry of Agriculture on 8.2.2013, production of food grains during 2012-13 is estimated at 250.14 million tonnes compared to 250.42 million tonnes (2nd advance estimates) in 2011-12. Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 1st January, 2013 was 16.38 million tonnes of Rabi Marketing Season as against 15.62 million tonnes procured last year in the corresponding period respectively. This represents an increase of 4.87 per cent. Wheat procurement during Rabi Marketing Season 2012-13 is 38.15 million tonnes as compared to 28.15 million tonnes during the corresponding period last year. Table 3 : Procurement in Million Tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Rice 32.03 34.20 35.04 20.44* Wheat 25.38 22.51 28.34 38.15** Total 57.41 56.71 63.38 58.59 ** Position as on 02.08.2012 * Position as on 18.1.2013 Off-take: Off-take of rice during the month of December, 2012 was 28.78 lakh tonnes. This comprises 20.57 lakh tonnes under TPDS and 8.21 lakh tonnes under other schemes during December 2012. In respect of wheat, the total off take was 34.66 lakh tonnes comprising of 15.61 lakh tonnes under TPDS and 19.05 lakh tonnes under other schemes. Stocks: Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on February 1, 2013 were 66.19 million tonnes, which is higher by 19.8 per cent over the level of 55.25 million tonnes as on February 1, 2012. Table 4: Off-take and stocks of food grains (Million Tonnes) Off-take Stocks 2010-11 2011-12(P) 2 0 1 2 - 1 3 ( P ) ( u p F e b . 1 , 2 012 Feb.1, to Dec. 2012) 2 0 1 3 Rice 29.93 32.12 24.02 31.83 35.38 Wheat 23.07 24.26 23.14 23.42 30.81 Total 53.00 56.38 47.16 55.25 66.19 P = Provisional 3INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION During December 2012, the Table 5: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial IIP growth was (-) 0.6 per Production Industry Group April- April- December December cent as compared to 2.7 per Decemb December 2011 2012 cent during the er 2011- 2012-13 corresponding period of 12 General previous year. In mining index 3.7 0.7 2.7 -0.6 sector, the growth rate in Mining -2.6 -1.9 -3.3 -4.0 December 2012 was (-) 4.0 Manufacturing 4.0 0.7 2.8 -0.7 per cent, in manufacturing Electricity 9.4 4.6 9.1 5.2 (-) 0.7 per cent and in the Basic goods 6.3 2.7 5.5 2.6 electricity sector, 5.2 per Capital goods -2.9 -10.1 -16.0 -0.9 cent. Under use-based Intermediate category, the growth rate in goods -0.7 1.6 -1.5 -0.1 basic goods was 2.6 per Consumer cent, in capital goods (-) 0.9 goods 5.7 2.6 10.1 -4.2 per cent, intermediate Durables 5.1 3.7 5.1 -8.2 goods (-) 0.1 per cent and in Non-durables 6.1 1.7 13.8 -1.4 consumer goods (-) 4.2 per cent (consumer durables (-) 8.2 per cent and in consumer non-durables (-) 1.4 per cent) during December 2012. Table 6: Production growth (per cent) in core Eight core industries: infrastructure-supportive industries The index for eight core April- April- Dec. Dec. industries (comprising December December 2011 2012 crude oil, petroleum Industry 2011-12 2012-13 refinery products, coal, Coal -2.7 5.7 5.5 -0.2 electricity, cement, steel, Crude oil 1.9 -0.4 -5.6 1.0 natural gas and fertilizers) Natural Gas -8.8 -13.3 -10.8 -14.9 with a weight of 37.9 per Refinery cent in the IIP grew by 3.3 Products per cent during April- 4.0 6.9 0.7 5.0 December 2012-13, as Fertilizers -0.5 -3.4 0.8 -3.8 compared to growth rate Steel 9.1 3.6 10.2 5.2 of 4.8 per cent achieved Cement 5.8 6.1 13.6 3.9 during the corresponding Electricity 9.3 4.6 8.9 4.4 period in 2011-12. During Overall 4.8 3.3 4.9 2.6 the month of December growth 2012, the overall growth of the core sector industries was 2.6 per cent as compared to the growth of 4.9 per cent during December 2011. During December 2012, the growth in steel was 5.2 per cent followed by refinery products 5.0 per cent, electricity 4.4 per cent, cement 3.9 per cent and crude oil 1.0 per cent. The coal, natural gas and fertilizer sectors have registered negative growth during December 2012. 4MONEY AND BANKING  The Reserve Bank of India released the 3rd Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2012-13 on January 29, 2013. The important Policy Measures taken by RBI are as follows.  Repo Rate: Reduced the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 8.0 per cent to 7.75 per cent with immediate effect.  Reverse Repo Rate: Reverse repo rate under the LAF, determined with a spread of 100 basis points below the repo rate, also stands adjusted to 6.75 per cent with immediate effect.  Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate: The Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate, determined with a spread of 100 basis points above the repo rate, stands adjusted to 8.75 per cent with immediate effect.  Cash Reserve Ratio: Reduced the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks by 25 basis points from 4.25 per cent to 4.0 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) effective the fortnight beginning February 9, 2013.  Bank Rate: The Bank Rate stands adjusted to 8.75 per cent with immediate effect.  The RBI revised the baseline projection of GDP growth for 2012-13 from 5.8 per cent given in the 2nd Quarter Review to 5.5 per cent.  Broad money (M ) for 2012-13 (up to January 25, 2013) increased by 10.1 per cent as 3 compared to 10.5 per cent during the corresponding period of the last year. The year-on- year growth, as on January 25, 2013 was 12.7 per cent as compared to 14.8 per cent in the previous year. Table 7. Money Stock: Components and Sources (` Billion) Outstanding as on Variation over (%) Financial Year so far Year-on-Year Item 2012 2013 2011-12 2012-13 2012 2013 Mar. 31 Jan. 25 M3 73,577.5 81,004.0 10.5 10.1 14.8 12.7 1 Components 1.1 Currency with the Public 10,256.7 11,087.9 9.2 8.1 12.1 11.4 1.2 Demand Deposits with Banks 7,049.1 6,922.8 -6.8 -1.8 1.3 2.7 1.3 Time Deposits with Banks 56,243.5 62,978.6 13.3 12.0 17.6 14.2 1.4 'Other' Deposits with Reserve Bank 28.2 14.7 -27.2 -47.8 -80.0 -44.6 2 Sources (2.1+2.2+2.3+2.4-2.5) 2.1 Net Bank Credit to Government 23,716.1 26,577.2 16.3 12.1 25.5 15.2 2.1.1 Reserve Bank 5,357.4 5,851.2 2.1.2 Other Banks 18,358.8 20,726.0 12.7 12.9 14.0 15.9 2.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 49,605.3 54,355.2 10.8 9.6 16.8 15.7 2.2.1 Reserve Bank 39.6 30.6 2.2.2 Other Banks 49,565.7 54,324.6 10.8 9.6 16.7 15.8 2.3 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking 15,437.8 16,082.0 6.7 4.2 7.7 8.2 Sector 2.4 Government's Currency Liabilities to the 134.4 147.2 3.4 9.5 5.4 11.9 Public 2.5 Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary 15,316.2 16,157.6 17.4 5.5 32.3 22.6 Liabilities 2.5.1 Net Non-Monetary Liabilities of RBI 6,038.4 7,013.0 49.2 16.1 47.1 27.6 5Reserve money (M ) during the financial year 2012-13 (up to January 25, 2013) showed an 0 increase of 4.4 per cent as compared to 3.8 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. The year-on-year variation revealed an increase of 4.2 per cent (up to January 25, 2013) compared to 14.6 per cent on the corresponding date of the previous year. An important source of reserve money, namely, net foreign exchange assets (NFA) of the RBI increased by 6.1 per cent (as on January 25, 2013) as compared to increase of 8.0 per cent in the same period last year. The y-o-y growth rate of NFA, showed an increase of 8.9 per cent as compared to an increase of 7.6 per cent on the corresponding date of the last year. Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs): Business in India During the current financial year 2012-13 (up to January 25, 2013), Bank credit showed increase of 9.5 per cent, as compared to increase of 10.4 per cent as during the corresponding period last year. The y-o-y growth variation revealed an increase of 16.1 per cent as compared to 16.5 per cent during the same period in the previous year. Non-Food credit during this period increased by 9.2 per cent (up to January 25, 2013) as compared to increase of 10.1 per cent during the corresponding period last year. The y-o-y growth variation revealed an increase of 15.9 per cent as compared to 16.2 per cent during the same period in the previous year. The aggregate deposits with Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) recorded an increase of 10.6 per cent (up to January 25, 2013) as compared to increase of 10.8 per cent during the corresponding period of last year. The y-o-y growth variation revealed an increase of 13.2 per cent as compared to 15.7 per cent in the previous year. Table 8: Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India Percentage Variation 2012-13 Financial year so far Year-on-year Outstanding as on Items ( Rs. in crore) 2011-12 2012-13 2012 2013 March 23, January 25, 2012 2013 Bank Credit 4611850 5051220 10.4 9.5 16.5 16.1 Non-Food credit 4530550 4945520 10.1 9.2 16.2 15.9 Aggregate deposits 5903659 6527120 10.8 10.6 15.7 13.2 Investments in Government. And other approved securities 1736638 1966360 12.5 13.2 14.1 16.4 Source: RBI 6Table 9 : Policy Rates/Interest Rates Interest rates (per cent per annum) (per cent per annum) As on January 25, 2013, Bank Rate Item / Week Ended 2012 2013 was 9.00 per cent as compared to 6.00 January 27 January 25 percent on the approximately Cash Reserve Ratio (per cent)(1) 6.00 4.00* corresponding date of last year. Call Bank Rate 6.00 9.00 money rates (borrowing & lending) Repo Rate 8.50 8.00 were 8.00 per cent as compared with Reverse Repo Rate 7.50 7.00 8.97 per cent on the approximately Prime Lending Rate(2) 10.00 / 10.75 9.75 / 10.50 Deposit Rate(3) 8.50 / 9.25 8.50 / 9.00 corresponding date of last year. Call Money Rate (Low / High)(4) - Borrowings 8.97 8.00 - Lendings 8.97 8.00 * Revised in 3rd Quarter Monetary Policy Review announced on January 29, 2013 which is effective from 9th February, 2013 (1) Cash Reserve Ratio relates to Scheduled Commercial B anks (excluding Regional Rural Banks). (2) Prime Lending Rate relates to five major Banks. (3) Deposit Rate relates to major Banks for term deposits of more than one year maturity. (4) Data cover 90-95 per cent of total transactions reported by participants. Source: RBI. EXTERNAL SECTOR Foreign trade: During 2012-13 (April-December), imports stood at US$ 361.3 billion, registering a negative growth of 0.7 per cent compared to 2011-12 (April-December), while exports were valued at US$ 214.1 billion (declining by 5.5 per cent compared to the corresponding period of the previous year). Trade Deficit for 2012-13 (April-December) is estimated at US$ 147.2 billion. Exports and imports, in US dollar terms increased by 0.8 per cent and 6.1 per cent respectively during January 2013 over January 2012. While oil imports increased by 6.9 per cent, non-oil imports increased by 5.7 per cent during January 2013 over January 2012. Table 10 : Exports and imports (in US dollar million) 2010-11 2011-12 January % Change in January Item (Apr-Mar) (Apr-Mar) 2012 2013 2013 Exports 251136 304624 25379 25587 0.8 Imports 369769 489181 42952 45583 6.1 Oil imports 105964 154906 14871 15899 6.9 Non-Oil imports 263805 334276 28081 29684 5.7 Trade balance -118633 -184558 -17573 -19996 13.8 Source: Provisional data as per the Press Note of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry 7Foreign Currency Assets Table 11: Foreign Currency Assets Amount Variation ` crore US million ` crore US$ million At the end of (over last year) March, 2008 1196023 299230 359426 107306 March, 2009 1231340 241676 35317 -57554 March, 2010 1150778 254935 -80562 13259 March, 2011 1225999 274580 75221 19645 March, 2012 1333954 260742 107955 -13838 2012-13 (over last month) April 2012 1373463 261512 39509 770 May 2012 1432560 253910 59097 -7602 June 2012 1449281 257376 16721 3466 July 2012 1436343 257363 -12938 -13 August 2012 1439861 258410 3518 1047 September 2012 1374066 260748 -65795 2338 October 2012 1413232 261141 39166 393 November 2012 1422065 260803 8833 -338 December 2012 1437609 262446 15544 1643 January 2013 1398722 262478 -38887 32 Source: RBI. Exchange rate: The rupee appreciated by 0.6 per cent against US dollar, 1.5 per cent against Pound sterling and 6.7 per cent against Japanese yen and depreciated by 0.6 per cent against Euro in the month of January 2013 over December 2012. Table 12 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency* US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro March, 2009 51.2287 72.9041 0.5251 66.9207 March, 2010 45.4965 68.4360 0.5018 61.7653 March 2011 44.9684 72.7070 0.5498 62.9660 March, 2012 50.3213 79.6549 0.6103 66.4807 2012-13 April 2012 51.8121 82.9120 0.6379 68.1872 May 2012** 54.4736 86.7323 0.6833 69.6991 June 2012 56.0302 87.1349 0.7067 70.3087 July 2012 55.4948 86.5173 0.7028 68.2520 August 2012 55.5594 87.3444 0.7068 68.8750 September 2012 54.6055 87.8663 0.6991 70.1263 October 2012 53.0239 85.2128 0.6723 68.7522 November 2012 54.7758 87.5374 0.6760 70.3665 December 2012 54.6478 88.1910 0.6528 71.6671 54.3168 86.8899 0.6118 72.1286 January 2013 * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on Monthly average basis). ** Data from May, 2012 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate. 8External assistance and debt service payments: Gross external aid in April-January 2012-13 is `21091.1 crore as compared to `26479.7 crore during the corresponding period of the previous year. Net disbursement stood at ` 5293.6 crore in April-January 2012-13 as compared to `13454.6 crore in April-January 2011-12 while net transfers were `1655.8 crore in April-January 2012-13 as compared to `10399 crore in April-January 2011-12. Table 13: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (Rs. In Crores) JANUARY During the JANUARY During the 2013 Financial year 2012 Financial year 2012-2013 2011-2012 External Assistance (Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 1,223.08 14,267.82 935.97 18,696.67 2) Repayments 1,399.84 13,600.74 1,390.38 11,357.63 3) Interest Payments 328.86 3,160.88 323.48 2,691.58 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -176.76 667.08 -454.41 7,339.04 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -505.62 -2,493.80 -777.89 4,647.46 External Assistance (Non-Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 99.56 4,924.86 463.91 5,118.18 2) Repayments 116.51 2,196.82 123.74 1,667.47 3) Interest Payments 42.08 476.90 35.06 356.90 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -16.95 2,728.04 340.17 3,450.71 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -59.03 2,251.14 305.11 3,093.81 Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 51.35 1,722.71 168.85 2,602.32 2) Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3) Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 51.35 1,722.71 168.85 2,602.32 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 51.35 1,722.71 168.85 2,602.32 Non Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 0.00 175.75 4.68 62.52 2) Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3) Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.09 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.00 175.75 4.68 62.52 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.00 175.75 4.68 55.43 Grand Total 1) Gross Disbursements 1,373.99 21,091.14 1,573.41 26,479.69 2) Repayments 1,516.35 15,797.56 1,514.12 13,025.10 3) Interest Payments 370.94 3,637.78 358.54 3,055.57 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -142.36 5,293.58 59.29 13,454.59 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -513.30 1,655.80 -299.25 10,399.02 9INFLATION Wholesale Price Index (WPI 2004-05=100): The WPI inflation for the month of January 2013 is reported at 6.62 per cent, as against 7.18 percent in the previous month, and 7.23 per cent in the corresponding month last year. The inflation has declined mainly on account of manufactured products (sugar, edible oils, metals and chemicals) and fuel (non-administered mineral oils). Inflation for Primary Food Articles (Wt 14.34 %) increased to 11.88 per cent in January 2013 from 11.16 per cent in the last month mainly on account of cereals, pulses, milk, and tea. Inflation for fuel & power (Wt. 14.91%) declined to 7.06 per cent in January 2013 from 9.38 per cent in December 2012. The average WPI inflation rate for last 12 months (Feb 2012 to Jan 2013) was 7.48 per cent as compared to 9.28 per cent during corresponding period in 2011- 12. The build-up of inflation since March stood at 5.09 per cent as against 6.15 per cent in the corresponding period last year. WPI inflation rates for major subgroups are indicated in Table 14 below. Table 14: Current Price Situation based on Monthly WPI in Dec 2012 (Base: 2004-05=100) Major groups Weight Cumulative change Inflation (%) Inflation (%) (%) (%) Since March (Average of 12 months) 2012-13 2011-12 2012-13 2011-12 2012-13 2011-12 ALL COMMODITIES 100.00 5.09 6.15 6.62 7.23 7.48 9.28 PRIMARY ARTICLES 20.12 6.54 6.64 10.31 2.76 9.70 10.73 Food articles 14.34 8.47 6.76 11.88 -0.68 9.56 7.61 FUEL AND POWER 14.91 6.58 12.31 7.06 16.99 10.83 13.72 MANUFACTURED PDT. 64.97 4.00 4.35 4.81 6.71 5.56 7.50 Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPIs): The all India CPI inflation (combined) has increased to 10.79 per cent in January 2013 from 10.56 per cent in the December 2012. The inflation remained elevated for vegetables, cereals, pulses, oils & fats, meat & fish and sugar in the current month. Inflation based on CPI-IW increased to 11.17 per cent in December 2012 from 9.55 per cent in November 2012. CPI-IW food inflation in December 2012 increased to 13.53 per cent from 10.85 per cent in November 2012. Inflation for CPI-AL and CPI-RL was 11.33 per cent and 11.31 per cent respectively in December 2012 as against 10.31 per cent and 10.47 per cent in last month. Table 15: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPIs (per cent) WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI(NS) Base :-> 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2010 Jan-12 7.23 5.32 4.92 5.27 7.65 Feb-12 7.56 7.57 6.34 6.68 8.83 Mar-12 7.69 8.65 6.84 7.19 9.38 Apr-12 7.50 10.22 7.84 8.01 10.26 May-12 7.55 10.16 7.77 8.11 10.36 Jun-12 7.58 10.05 8.03 8.54 9.93 Jul-12 7.52 9.84 8.61 8.94 9.86 Aug-12 8.01 10.31 9.18 9.34 10.03 Sep-12 8.07 9.14 9.43 9.93 9.73 Oct-12 7.32 9.60 9.85 9.84 9.75 Nov-12 7.24 9.55 10.31 10.47 9.90 Dec-12 7.18 11.17 11.33 11.31 10.56 Jan-13 6.62 - - - 10.79 Note: WPI inflation for Dec 2012 and Jan 2013, CPI (New Series) inflation for Jan 2013 is provisional. 10Table 16: World Commodity Price Data Annual averages Monthly averages Commodity Unit Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan- Dec Nov Dec Jan 2010 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 Coal, Australia $/mt 99.0 121.5 96.4 85.9 92.9 92.8 Crude oil, average $/bbl 79.0 104.0 105.1 101.2 101.2 105.1 Natural gas, US $/mmbtu 4.4 5.1 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.3 Cocoa ¢/kg 313.3 298.0 239.2 247.8 241.0 227.5 Coffee, Robusta ¢/kg 173.6 240.8 226.7 215.3 212.9 219.8 Tea, auctions (3) avg. ¢/kg 288.5 292.1 289.8 301.7 308.3 301.6 Coconut oil $/mt 1124 1730 1111 848 785 829 Groundnut oil $/mt 1404 1988 n.a 2303 2216 2100 Palm oil $/mt 901.0 1125.0 999.3 813.0 776.0 841.0 Palm kernel oil $/mt 1184 1648 1110 815 762 795 Soybean meal $/mt 378.0 398.0 524.1 579.0 580.0 538.0 Soybean oil $/mt 1005 1299 1226 1135 1163 1190 Soybeans $/mt 450.0 541.0 591.4 589.0 607.0 592.0 Maize $/mt 185.9 291.7 298.4 321.6 308.6 303.1 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 488.9 543.0 562.9 559.3 557.8 564.2 Wheat, US, HRW $/mt 223.6 316.3 313.2 360.8 348.0 335.5 Bananas, US $/mt 868.0 968.0 984.0 933.5 943.9 928.7 Oranges $/mt 1033 891 868 847 758 739 Fishmeal $/mt 1688 1537 1558 1812 1880 1919 Meat, chicken ¢/kg 189.2 192.6 207.9 213.0 215.3 218.5 Meat, beef ¢/kg 335.1 404.2 414.2 424.7 431.6 430.7 Sugar, world ¢/kg 46.9 57.3 47.5 42.6 42.6 41.6 Plywood ¢/sheets 569.1 607.5 610.3 611.5 612.9 612.9 Cotton A Index ¢/kg 228.3 332.9 196.7 178.3 183.8 188.5 Rubber, TSR20 ¢/kg 338.1 451.9 315.6 280.0 289.6 304.3 DAP $/mt 500.7 618.9 539.8 524.8 499.0 485.0 Urea $/mt 288.6 421.0 405.4 374.2 378.8 393.4 Copper $/mt 7535 8828 7962 7711 7966 8047 Lead ¢/kg 214.8 240.1 206.5 218.2 228.0 233.4 Tin ¢/kg 2041 2605 2113 2071 2288 2455 Nickel $/mt 21809 22910 17548 16335 17449 17473 Zinc ¢/kg 216.1 219.4 195.0 191.2 204.0 203.2 Gold $/toz 1225 1569 1670 1722 1685 1672 Silver ¢/toz 2015 3522 3114 3277 3187 3106 Iron ore $/dmt 145.9 167.8 128.5 120.4 128.5 150.8 Source: World Bank – The Pink Sheet 11Public Finance As a proportion of budget estimate, fiscal deficit during April–December 2012 was 78.8 per cent and revenue deficit was 85.1 per cent. Table 17: Trends in Central Government Finances during 2012-13 (April-December) Budget April -December Col.3 as Col.4 as Per cent change Estimates per cent per cent of over preceding of year 2012-13 2011-12 2012-13 2011-12 2012-13 2011-12 2012-13 BE BE (4/3) ( `Crore) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1.Revenue Receipts 935685 498491 570536 63.1 61.0 -14.7 14.5 Gross tax revenue* 1077612 592347 681345 63.5 63.2 12.2 15.0 Tax (net to Centre) 771071 420414 484156 63.3 62.8 7.5 15.2 Non Tax 164614 78077 86380 62.2 52.5 -59.6 10.6 2.Capital Receipts 555241 397870 420587 85.0 75.7 96.4 5.7 of which Recovery of loans 11650 14115 7710 94.0 66.2 64.3 -45.4 Other Receipts 30000 2743 8178 6.9 27.3 -87.9 198.1 Borrowings and other 513590 381012 404699 92.3 78.8 122.5 6.2 liabilities 3.Total Receipts (1+2) 1490925 896361 991123 71.3 66.5 13.9 10.6 4.Non-Plan Expenditure 9 6 9 9 0 0 6 1 9 4 5 7 6 9 5 233 75.9 71.7 15.4 12.2 (a)+(b) (a) Revenue Account 865596 550692 625598 75.1 72.3 12.9 13.6 of which: Interest payments 319759 179429 201959 67.0 63.2 22.6 12.6 Major Subsidies 179554 104181 166824 77.6 92.9 10.5 60.1 Pensions 63183 40454 44839 74.2 71.0 0.6 10.8 (b) Capital Account 104304 68765 69635 83.2 66.8 39.7 1.3 5.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 521025 276904 295890 62.7 56.8 10.8 6.9 (i) Revenue Account 420513 233903 242975 64.3 57.8 9.9 3.9 (ii) Capital Account 100512 43001 52915 55.2 52.6 16.0 23.1 6.Total Expenditure 1490925 896361 991123 71.3 66.5 13.9 10.6 (4)+(5)=(a)+(b) (a)Revenue Expenditure 1286109 784595 868573 71.5 67.5 12.0 10.7 (b)Of which Grants for creation 164672 84149 74283 57.3 45.1 138.0 -11.7 of Capital Assets (c)Capital Expenditure 204816 111766 122550 69.6 59.8 29.5 9.6 7.Revenue Deficit 350424 286104 298037 93.1 85.1 146.0 4.2 8.Effective Revenue Deficit (7- 185752 201955 223754 125.9 120.5 149.5 10.8 6(b)) 9.Fiscal Deficit 513590 381012 404699 92.3 78.8 122.5 6.2 10.Primary Deficit 193831 201583 202740 139.2 104.6 708.1 0.6 Source: Review of Union Government Accounts, December 2012. * Gross Tax Revenue is prior to devolution to the States. 12