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Economic Division
MONTHLY ECONOMIC
REVIEW
July 2026Table of Contents
Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 2
Global uncertainties have resurfaced, clouding the global outlook .................................... 4
Resilient domestic demand continues to support India's growth momentum ................... 4
Industry & Infrastructure ....................................................................................................... 6
Service sector gets a new high-frequency indicator: The ISP ............................................ 12
Agricultural Performance and Monsoon Dynamics ........................................................... 14
Inflation quickens but remains within the tolerance band ................................................ 15
Global Trade Performance .................................................................................................... 21
India’s trade performance in June 2026 .............................................................................. 22
Developments in India’s Balance of Payments .................................................................... 27
Labour Market Developments .............................................................................................. 33
Outlook & Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 39
Performance of High Frequency Indicators ........................................................................ 41
1 | PageAbstract
Global economic uncertainty resurfaced during the month as geopolitical tensions in West Asia
escalated, leading to renewed upward pressure on crude oil prices after a brief period of easing.
Although the increase remains well below the sharp spike witnessed during the initial phase of
the conflict, uncertainty surrounding the global outlook has increased. The IMF's July 2026
World Economic Outlook projects global growth to moderate from 3.2 per cent in 2025 to 3.0
per cent in 2026. While risks are more balanced than in the April 2026 WEO, they remain tilted
to the downside, with renewed conflict in the Middle East, trade fragmentation, a correction in
technology-driven expectations and limited policy buffers posing key risks to global growth.
Notwithstanding the uncertain global environment, the Indian economy sustained its growth
momentum during the first quarter of FY27, supported by resilient domestic demand. However,
some high-frequency indicators, such as e-way bill and manufacturing PMI witnessed some
softening in momentum. The Service sector strengthened in Q1 of F27, driven by supportive
domestic and external demand conditions.
Reflecting this underlying resilience, the release of the revised Index of Core Industries (Base:
2022–23), together with the revised Index of Industrial Production (Base: 2022–23)
incorporating the Producer Price Index as the deflator, marks a significant improvement in
India's industrial statistics framework. The revised Index of Core Industries recorded a robust
5.0 per cent year-on-year growth in June 2026, led by strong performance in iron ore,
electricity, cement and steel, indicating sustained momentum in infrastructure and construction
activity. This assessment is reinforced by UNIDO's Q1 2026 report, which places India among
the world's fastest-growing emerging industrial economies, and by the Reserve Bank of India’s
Financial Stability Report, which highlights healthy corporate capacity utilisation and
improving corporate debt-servicing capacity. During the month, strategic manufacturing
initiatives gathered further momentum with the inauguration of the CG Semi OSAT facility; the
approval of Semicon 2.0 and the Mobile Phone Manufacturing Scheme; continued progress in
critical minerals, coal gasification and shipbuilding; and a landmark achievement in the
commercial space sector with Skyroot Aerospace's successful orbital launch. Recent regulatory
reforms also eased compliance for SEZ-based manufacturers. India's transition towards green
mobility advanced further with the introduction of its first hydrogen fuel cell-powered train,
complementing the continued growth in electric vehicle adoption. Taken together, these
developments reflect continued progress in strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities,
enhancing supply-chain resilience and reducing dependence on concentrated import sources
across strategic sectors. However, this progress needs to be read alongside a less favorable
external backdrop. Prices of industrial commodities, including critical minerals and rare earth
elements, have stayed elevated throughout the month. Instances such as flooding in Chile, one
of the key copper suppliers, illustrate the concentration risk embedded in India’s industrial
metal supply chains.
2 | PageClose on the heels of the revised IIP, MoSPI has launched the trial Index of Services Production
(ISP) with base year 2024–25 to provide a monthly volume-based measure of services sector
activity, addressing a long-standing gap in high-frequency economic indicators. The first trial
release for April 2026 indicates broad-based growth, with 14 of the 19 sub-sectors recording
double-digit growth, led by accommodation & food services, retail trade and administrative &
support services.
On the agricultural front, Kharif sowing for the 2026 season commenced with slight
moderation (as reported on July 23, 2026) due to an initial monsoon deficit, alongside potential
downside risks posed by a projected transition to El Niño. However, agricultural security is
underpinned by robust live water reservoir storage tracking almost at par with normal storage
norms and strong foodgrain buffer stocks from paddy and wheat procurement. Meanwhile,
retail inflation (CPI) quickened in June 2026—driven by unfavourable weather impacting food
prices (notably in protein items, fruits, and vegetables) and the transmission of global energy
prices—yet it remained comfortably within the RBI's tolerance band. Wholesale (WPI) and
Output Producer Price (OPPI) inflation experienced notable upticks, reflecting their
heightened sensitivity to global commodity price movements. To mitigate supply-side and
inflationary risks, proactive government measures were deployed, including strategic food
stock management, reducing commercial LPG and ATF prices, and lifting temporary retail fuel
sales restrictions.
At the same time, India’s trade performance continued to exhibit resilience in June 2026, with
total exports increasing by 9.5 per cent (YoY). Merchandise exports were the principal driver
of export growth during the month, while the sustained surplus in services trade continued to
provide an important cushion to the overall trade balance. These favourable trade dynamics,
together with strong remittance inflows, supported a current account surplus during April-May
2026. Comfortable foreign exchange reserves continue to provide a strong buffer against
external shocks, while recent policy measures are expected to support foreign capital inflows
in the coming months.
Labour market indicators also remained encouraging, with stable labour force participation
and unemployment indicators alongside improving hiring activity. Recent trends reflect a shift
in skill demand driven by technological change and the adoption of Artificial Intelligence. At
the same time, India has ranked 13th globally in the QS World Future Skills Index 2027,
reflecting India’s position as a future-ready, AI-enabled economy.
There is no doubt that the economy has continued to demonstrate resilience amid a challenging
global backdrop. Nonetheless, global challenges show no sign of letting up, with uncertainties
mounting. So, India has to reinvent itself and reimagine its responses to global imperatives if it
has to achieve strategic leverage. As external conditions evolve, the continued interplay of
domestic reforms, prudent macroeconomic management and swift policy responses, backed by
consistent on-ground implementation will remain important in shaping India's economic
trajectory.
3 | PageGlobal uncertainties have resurfaced, clouding the global outlook
1. The global macroeconomic environment remains characterised by elevated uncertainty.
Following a brief period of respite, geopolitical tensions in West Asia have re-emerged, leading
to renewed upward pressure on global energy prices. Commodity prices, particularly crude oil,
which had declined below pre-conflict levels, have risen again this month. However, the
increase remains contained compared with the sharp spike witnessed during the initial phase of
the conflict. The renewed escalation has heightened uncertainty around the global growth and
inflation outlook.
Trend in crude oil prices Trend in fertiliser prices
180 Middle East Urea Granular Spot Price
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Dated Brent Spot Prices
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Source: Bloomberg
2. The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update projects global growth
to moderate from 3.2 pe r cent in 2025 to 3.0 per cent in 2026, before re covering to 3.4 per cent
in 2027. The slowdown reflects the effects of the war in the Middle East, which are being partly
offset by momentum in the global technology cycle, driven by advances in artificial intelligence
and its adoption. As a result, growth prospects vary across economies, with those better
integrated into the technology value chain or benefiting from favourable terms of trade
expected to fare better than energy-importing economies with limited participation in the
technology cycle. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices are expected to interrupt the global
disinflation process. Accordingly, the IMF projected global headline inflation to rise from 4.1
per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026, before easing to 3.9 per cent in 2027.
Resilient domestic demand continues to support India's growth momentum
3. Against the backdrop of heightened global uncertainty, the Indian economy sustained
growth momentum during the first quarter of FY27. While steady domestic demand continues
to support growth, some high-frequency indicators have seen a softening in momentum. The e-
way bill generation continued to grow in double digits in Q1 of FY27, albeit at a slower pace.
Petrol and diesel consumption remained stable during the first quarter of the year, indicating
sustained economic activity, following the increase in retail fuel prices.
4 | PagePerformance of high frequency indicators (Year on Year growth, %)
Indicators Q1:FY25 Q1:FY26 Q2:FY26 Q3:FY26 Q4:FY26 Q1:FY27
Economic Activity
E-way bill generation 16.0 20.5 23.1 19.4 15.7 12.4
PMI manufacturing# 58.2 58.1 58.7 56.9 55.4 54.6
PMI Services# 60.5 59.3 61.4 58.9 58.0 58.7
Electricity
10.3 -1.4 3.4 -0.3 1.8 8.6
consumption
Fuel consumption 3.9 0.6 2.2 1.2 2.6 -5.0
Petrol & Diesel
3.1 3.9 4.3 4.0 5.7 3.7
Consumption
9 Core Industries
6.5 1.0 4.2 3.3 3.8 3.6
(2022-23)
IIP (2022-23) 7.2 3.5 5.4 4.3 3.8 5.8
Port Traffic 3.9 5.6 5.9 13.0 4.3 6.1
Air Traffic* 13.9 5.7 4.1 7.2 8.2 10.2
Domestic demand
Urban Auto Sales 8.3 8.7 2.6 17.4 23.9 14.9
Rural Auto Sales 11.7 7.1 -0.5 20.7 24.5 14.2
Air Passenger Traffic* 5.6 5.3 -1.9 1.7 0.6 2.4
Source: AAI, GSTN, FADA, HSBC, MoSPI, DPIIT, CEA, PPAC
Note: # Absolute Values. * Data for Q1:FY27 is up to May.
4. Industrial activity improved during Q1 of FY27. IIP growth picked up sequentially as
well on a year-on-year basis, supported by manufacturing and robust electricity generation.
Higher electricity demand due to prolonged heatwaves and above-normal temperatures
contributed to increased power generation. PMI indices also indicated continued expansion in
economic activity, although the pace of expansion varied across sectors. In manufacturing,
growth moderated sequentially due to slower growth in new orders and output, and cautious
business sentiment amid geopolitical uncertainties. While the services PMI strengthened,
driven by stronger business activity and new business growth, supported by sustained domestic
and external demand. Cargo activity also strengthened in Q1 of FY27, reflecting robust trade
activity.
5. On the demand side, domestic automobile sales recorded broad-based growth across
vehicle segments and markets. Passenger vehicle sales recorded an all-time high in the two
months of Q1 of FY27, signalling robust demand supported by improved affordability post-
GST 2.0. Two-wheelers, commercial vehicles and tractors also posted double-digit growth,
supported by rural demand, infrastructure-led economic activity and continued preference for
utility vehicles. At the same time, air passenger traffic returned to positive growth in June after
5 | Pagethree consecutive months of decline, on a favourable base and along with a seasonal pick-up in
summer travel, improving Q1 growth.
6. Looking ahead, resilient domestic demand is expected to continue supporting economic
activity, although renewed geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility remain key
risks to the outlook. In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, the IMF
projected India's growth at 6.4 per cent in 2026-27 and revised its 2027-28 growth forecast
upward to 6.7 per cent, as the impact of higher energy prices is expected to moderate.
Industry & Infrastructure
7. This month marks an important milestone in India's industrial statistics framework with
the release of the revised Index of Core Industries (Base Year: 2022–23) by the Office of the
Economic Adviser, DPIIT. The revised series expands the coverage of core industries from
eight to nine through the inclusion of Iron Ore, adopts updated weights aligned with the revised
IIP (Base Year: 2022–23), uses gross steel production data, and refines coal coverage by
retaining only raw coal. The methodological improvements are expected to provide a more
representative measure of core industrial activity, better reflecting the evolving structure of the
economy while improving consistency with the revised IIP series.1
Index of Core Industries (ICI)-Monthly YoY Growth (%) (June-25 vs June-26)
43.9
Jun-25 Jun-26
10.2 9.8 9.8
7.9
1.1 5.0 1.4 3.3 4.6
-6.8 -3 -7.4 -0.5 -4.2 -4.7 -1.2 -3.3 -1.2
-16.4
e tis o p m o
C
I C
la o C s a G la r u ta
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y
r e
s r e z ilitr e
F
le e tS tn e m e C y tic ir tc e lE e r O n o r I
n
I if
e
R
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Impleme ntation
8. The Index of Core Industries (ICI) rec orded a year-on-year growth of 5.0 per cent
(provisional) in June 2026, improving from 3.2 per cent (final) in May 2026. The acceleration
was driven primarily by robust y-o-y growth in Iron Ore (43.9 per cent), Electricity (9.8 per
cent), Cement (9.8 per cent) and Steel (4.6 per cent), while Coal also returned to positive growth
at 1.4 per cent. However, Natural Gas (-7.4 per cent), Crude Oil (-4.2 per cent), Refinery
1 Office of Economic Adviser, DPIIT ‘First press release of index of core industries of new series with base year
2022-23’
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2286615®=48&lang=1#:~:text=Key%20highlights%2
0of%20ICI%20for,May%202026%20(Final%20Estimate).
6 | PageProducts (-4.7 per cent) and Fertilisers (-3.3 per cent) continued to contract. The broad-based
strength in infrastructure-related industries, particularly iron ore, electricity, cement and steel,
indicates sustained momentum in domestic infrastructure and construction activity. During
April–June 2026–27, the cumulative y-o-y growth of the core industries stood at 3.6 per cent
(provisional), compared with 1.0 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
9. During June 2026, MoSPI strengthened the methodology for compilation of the new
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) (Base: 2022–23) by adopting the newly introduced Output
Producer Price Index (Output PPI) as the deflator for value-based production data, replacing
the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Accordingly, the Output PPI-based IIP series released on 29
June 2026 supersedes the WPI-deflated series released on 1 June 2026. The revised
methodology affects 234 of the 463 item groups in the IIP basket, accounting for about 36 per
cent of the overall index weight. The use of Output PPI provides a more granular measure of
producer prices than WPI, thereby improving the estimation of real industrial output for value
reported items.2
10. The IIP recorded a 5.1 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in May 2026, marginally
higher than the revised y-o-y growth of 4.9 per cent in April 2026. Manufacturing expanded by
5.5 per cent (y-o-y) and electricity and gas supply by 9.9 per cent (y-o-y), while mining and
quarrying contracted by 1.6 per cent (y-o-y). On the use-based classification, capital goods
output grew by 12.9 per cent (y-o-y) and infrastructure/construction goods by 5.9 per cent (y-
o-y), reinforcing the investment-led nature of industrial growth evident in recent months.
Monthly YoY Growth rate of IIP (Base: 2022-23) as per Sectoral Classification (in %)
10
Mining & Quarrying
8
6 Manufacturing
tn 4
e
c Electricity & Gas Supply
r 2
e
p
0 Water Supply, Sewerage &
Waste Management
-2
General
-4
Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
2 Press Release on Quick Estimates of all India Index of Industrial Production (IIP) base year 2022-23 for May
2026. https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/latestReleases/latest_release_1782727994645_1af6a37e-b7fb-4ee8-
bf52-96fcea2a47e2_IIP_Press_release_May_2026.pdf
7 | PageMonthly YoY Growth rate of IIP (Base: 2022-23) as per Use-Based Classification (in %)
19
Primary Goods
16
Capital Goods
13
10 Intermediate Goods
7
Infrastructure / construction
4 Goods
Consumer Durables
1
-2 Consumer Non Durables
Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Impleme ntation
11. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI stood at 54.2 in June 2026 against 55.0 in May,
indicating that manufacturing activity remained in expansionary territory, albeit at a slower
pace. The moderation reflects some easing in demand following the earlier surge associated
with geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East. Growth in output, new orders, export orders
and employment softened, with export orders recording their slowest expansion since March
2023. At the same time, both input and output price pressures eased, suggesting a moderation
in cost and inflationary pressures as geopolitical disruptions receded.3
12. Global manufacturing trends corroborated the resilience reflected in India's domestic
industrial indicators. UNIDO's Quarterly Report on Manufacturing Production and Trade for
Q1 20264 recorded an expansion in world manufacturing output by 1.2 per cent quarter-on-
quarter, with medium- and high-technology industries continuing to outpace lower-technology
segments even as the latter's growth accelerated modestly. Asia and the Pacific recorded the
strongest regional growth, while Europe was the only major region to contract. India featured
prominently within this: quarterly manufacturing output rose 2.5 per cent, placing it second
only to Viet Nam (3.4 per cent) and ahead of China's 1.8 per cent, among UNIDO's top ten
‘emerging industrial economies’, a group whose manufacturing growth has consistently
outpaced both industrial and industrialising economies since mid-2023. These trends reinforce
the resilience reflected in India's recent industrial indicators.
3HSBC India Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global) News Release
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/168b051ebc2444389823e5862a5de1b4
4United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) World Manufacturing Production and Trade -
Quarterly Report (Q1 2026)
https://stat.unido.org/portal/storage/file/publications/qiip/World_Manufacturing_Report_2026_Q1.pdf
8 | PageQuarter-on-Quarter manufacturing output growth rates of selected emerging industrial
economies in Q1 2026
Viet Nam 3.4%
India 2.5%
China 1.8%
Indonesia 1.2%
Bangladesh 1.2%
Source: UNIDO Quarterly Report on Manufacturing Production and Trade, Q1 2026 (emerging industrial
economies group)
13. The Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Report for June 20265 offered a complementary
financial sector view of this resilience. Corporate capacity utilisation stood at 75.5 per cent in
December 2025, above its long-term average of 74.0 per cent. Robust credit flows from banks
and non-banks continued to support financing conditions, although the private corporate
investment-to-GDP ratio remained subdued amid an uncertain business environment shaped by
repeated exogenous shocks. Corporate debt-servicing capacity continued to improve, with the
interest coverage ratio of listed private non-financial companies rising to 6.5 in Q4 2025-26,
though fixed-asset growth of listed manufacturing companies moderated to 5.2 per cent in H2
2025-26 from 10.3 per cent in H1, weighed down by weaker expansion in non-ferrous metals,
chemicals, cement and automobiles. Asset quality improved across most industrial sub-sectors,
although the Report's sensitivity analysis identified basic metals and metal products, along with
infrastructure-energy and infrastructure-transport, as most sensitive to a standard-deviation
credit shock among the ten most exposed industrial sub-sectors. Meanwhile, NBFC credit
growth moderated to 16.6 per cent year-on-year in March 2026, with the deceleration
concentrated in lending to industry and services, while credit growth to agriculture and retail
accelerated.
14. Against this backdrop of resilient industrial activity and supportive financing
conditions, implementation of key strategic manufacturing initiatives gathered further
momentum during the month. India's semiconductor ecosystem recorded a major milestone
with the inauguration of the CG Semi Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT)
5RBI Financial Stability Report for June 2026 -
https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63050
9 | Pagefacility in Sanand, Gujarat, on 4 July 20266 under the India Semiconductor Mission. Developed
with an investment of over ₹7,500 crore through a joint venture between CG Power and
Industrial Solutions, Japan's Renesas Electronics and Thailand's Stars Microelectronics, the
facility has commenced commercial production and will cater to automotive, telecom, AI and
consumer electronics applications, with a significant share of output targeted for exports. With
this, the India Semiconductor Mission now comprises 12 approved projects involving a
cumulative committed investment of around ₹1.64 lakh crore. Building on this momentum, the
Union Cabinet on 15 July 2026 approved Semicon 2.0, a second-generation semiconductor
mission with a total outlay of ₹1,27,500 crore,7 alongside a new Mobile Phone Manufacturing
Scheme (MPMS) with an outlay of ₹62,500 crore for the period FY 2026-27 to FY 2030-318
to deepen domestic capabilities across the semiconductor and electronics manufacturing value
chain. Semicon 2.0 is structured around six pillars: chip design, semiconductor equipment and
materials, fabrication, assembly and packaging, research and development, and workforce
training. The MPMS, which succeeds the Production Linked Incentive scheme for large-scale
electronics manufacturing that concluded on 31 March 2026, offers incentives of 2.25 to 5 per
cent on eligible sales, with additional incentives for domestic component sourcing and for
design and R&D.
15. Complementing these efforts, the Government issued customs notifications on 8 July
2026 exempting basic customs duty on specified components for display assemblies and
wireless charging modules, while expanding concessional-duty coverage for capital goods used
in lithium-ion cell manufacturing until March 2029. 9 Beyond electronics, India's space sector
achieved a major milestone on 18 July 2026 when Skyroot Aerospace's Vikram-1 became the
first privately developed Indian rocket to successfully reach orbit under Mission Aagaman.
Supported by ISRO's launch infrastructure and coordinated by IN-SPACe, the mission marks
an important step in strengthening India's commercial space capabilities and advancing its high-
technology manufacturing ecosystem.10
16. India's strategic efforts to strengthen critical mineral and rare-earth supply chains
continued to advance. The Ministry of Heavy Industries is working on the implementation of a
Scheme to promote the manufacturing of Sintered Rare Earth Permanent Magnets (REPM).11
Approved by the Union Cabinet in November 2025, the scheme aims to establish a cumulative
domestic manufacturing capacity of 6,000 Metric Tons Per Annum (MTPA) across the rare-
6Press release on CG OSAT Facility in Sanand, Gujarat
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2281149®=48&lang=2
7 PIB Release on Semicon 2.0 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2284784®=48&lang=1;
8 PIIB Release https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2284789®=48&lang=1
9 Notification No. 25/2026 – Customs, 26/2026 – Customs, 27/2026 – Customs dated 08 July 2026
https://egazette.gov.in/(S(nmrak2nh2jnolw2d5jr2d44i))/SearchMinistry.aspx?id=781150
10 CNBC news on India's Skyroot launches Vikram-1 in first private orbital rocket mission
https://tinyurl.com/4zhnewt6
11 Press Release on extension in bid submission timeline for Global Tender under Scheme to Promote
Manufacturing of Sntered Rare Earth Permanent Magnet (REPM Scheme)
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2277769®=48&lang=2
10 | Pageearth permanent magnet value chain, reducing import dependence and supporting domestic
capabilities in strategic sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, electronics,
aerospace and defence.
17. India's maritime and shipbuilding ecosystem also registered significant policy
momentum during the month, anchoring its status as the world's leading ship recycling nation.
According to the latest UNCTAD data,12 India's share of global ship recycling activity rose
from 30.1 per cent in 2024 to 35.4 per cent in 2025, with 2.99 million gross tons (GT) recycled,
enabling the Maritime India Vision 2030 ship-recycling target to be achieved five years ahead
of schedule. Building on this, the Government continued implementation of the ₹69,725 crore
shipbuilding package approved in September 2025, including the enhanced Shipbuilding
Financial Assistance Scheme, the Ship-breaking Credit Note Scheme and financing support
through the Maritime Development Fund, aimed at strengthening domestic shipbuilding
capacity and promoting greater value addition.13
18. Structural shifts in India's transport and energy landscape are also beginning to carry
industrial implications. SBI Research, in a note on the West Asia crisis and India's declining oil
intensity,14 observed that India's oil consumption-to-GDP ratio and crude oil imports-to-GDP
ratio has declined from FY14 to FY26, a trend it attributes partly to accelerating EV adoption
alongside broader structural factors such as energy efficiency gains and a shift in the
composition of GDP growth. Average monthly EV registrations increased to 2.3 lakh between
March and June 2026, i.e. around one lakh higher than the 2025 monthly average. At this pace,
annual EV registrations are projected to cross 25 lakhs in 2026. The note further estimates that
increasing EV penetration, which has crossed 8 per cent of total vehicle registrations in 2026
so far, to 20 per cent by 2030 could reduce India's annual oil import bill by around ₹1 lakh
crore, underscoring the growing industrial and macroeconomic significance of the EV
transition.
19. India's transition towards green mobility gathered further momentum with the
introduction of the country's first hydrogen fuel cell-powered train. On 17 July 2026, a 10-
coach train commenced operations on the 89-km Jind–Sonipat section of Northern Railway in
Haryana.15 Designed and developed indigenously, the train uses a 1,200-kW hybrid propulsion
system combining a proton exchange membrane fuel cell with lithium iron phosphate battery
technology, producing electricity onboard while emitting only water vapour. With this launch,
India joins a select group of countries that have deployed hydrogen fuel-cell technology in rail
transport, reinforcing the broader shift towards reducing dependence on fossil fuels alongside
the growing adoption of electric vehicles noted above.
12 UNCTAD Maritime and other transport: Data Insights https://unctadstat.unctad.org/insights/theme/243
13 Press Release on India Becomes World’s Top Ship Recycling Nation in 2025
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2276739®=3&lang=1
14 SBI Research Ecowrap 02.07.2026 ‘The story of India’s declining oil intensity’ https://tinyurl.com/2p2spmcm
15 Press Release on India's First Hydrogen-Powered Train
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2285268®=3&lang=1
11 | Page20. Recent policy measures also sought to facilitate investment and manufacturing through
regulatory easing. On 02 June 2026, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) amended
the Foreign Trade Policy to exempt imports by Special Economic Zone (SEZ) units and
developers from Quality Control Orders (QCOs) and mandatory BIS certification, provided
these goods are used for authorised operations within SEZs. Compliance with QCOs will be
required only when such goods are supplied to the Domestic Tariff Area.16 The revised
framework covers a wide range of inputs, components, consumables, spares and capital goods,
reducing compliance costs and improving the ease of doing business for SEZ-based industries.
Complementing this, DPIIT notified the Transition Facilitation (Quality Control) Order, 2026
on 25 June 2026,17 introducing a risk-based compliance framework to facilitate industry
transition to mandatory quality standards. The Order seeks to reduce compliance costs, improve
the availability of quality-compliant industrial inputs, strengthen supply chain resilience, and
promote manufacturing competitiveness while maintaining product quality and consumer
protection.
21. The coal and lignite gasification programme also saw concrete execution progress
during the month, underscoring the growing importance of domestic coal-based chemical
production in strengthening energy security and reducing import dependence amid heightened
geopolitical uncertainties in West Asia. On 20 June 2026, the Prime Minister laid the foundation
stone for India's first commercial-scale coal-to-ammonium-nitrate facility at Lakhanpur in
Jharsuguda district, Odisha.18 Developed by Bharat Coal Gasification & Chemicals Limited
(BCGCL), a joint venture of BHEL and Coal India Limited, this project will utilise indigenous
gasification technology to produce 2,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate per day. The Ministry of
Coal also advanced implementation of the Scheme for Promotion of Surface Coal/Lignite
Gasification Projects by publishing the Round-I application timeline on 7 July 2026, following
stakeholder consultations held during May and June.
Service sector gets a new high-frequency indicator: The ISP
22. The services sector is the cornerstone of the Indian economy, driving over 50% of the
country's economic activity. Despite its massive footprint, the sector previously lacked a high-
frequency, monthly volume index like the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) used for
manufacturing. To bridge this crucial statistical gap, MoSPI has launched the Index of Services
Production (ISP) on a trial basis with the Base Year 2024–25 on 14th July 2026, the details of
which are summarised in Box 1.
16 Directorate General of Foreign Trade Notification No. 20/2026-27 dated 02.06.2026 available at
https://www.dgft.gov.in/CP/index.jsp?opt=notification
17 https://egazette.gov.in/WriteReadData/2026/273832.pdf
18 Press release on India’s First Commercial-Scale Coal-to-Ammonium Nitrate Project in Odisha
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2275058®=48&lang=1
12 | PageBox 1: Index of Services Production (ISP) – Framework and Trends
Coverage
• Starts with 19 sub-sectors, encompassing approximately 60% of India's formal services
sector.
• The index tracks the formal services sector only. Core government services, non-market
activities, and informal sector units are excluded.
• Activity Classification: The ISP aligns with Sections G to V of the National Industrial
Classification (NIC), 2025.
Data sources
• Administrative/secondary data for ISP of Air Transport, Railway Transport, Banking and
Insurance;
• GST data for Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Repair and Maintenance, Accommodation and
Food, Road Transport, Water Transport, Warehousing and support activities for
transportation, Postal & courier, Telecommunications, Information and Broadcasting, Real
estate, Information and computer related services, Professional, scientific & technical
services including R & D, Administrative & support services and Arts, Entertainment &
Recreation.
• Annual Survey of Incorporated Services Sector Enterprises (ASISSE) data for Health
and Education (excluding Government) sectors.
Methodology
• Statistical Weighting: Weights are based on sectoral contributions to Gross Value Added
(GVA) available from National Account Statistics. GVA-based weights are being used as
they reflect the relative economic importance of each service industry. The weights may be
used with the proposed compilation formula. The Annual Survey of Incorporated Services
Sector Enterprises (ASISSE) data is also utilised for providing weights at the 2/3-digit level
of NIC.)
• Compilation formula: ISP is proposed to be compiled using a fixed-weight Laspeyres
volume index.
• Price Deflators: To track physical volume rather than just price changes,
o The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is utilised for Wholesale Trade.
o Sector-specific CPIs or closest-proxy CPIs are used for others.
o CPI-General for Banking and Insurance,
o CPI Non-Food, elsewhere.
• Frequency: Monthly (29th of every month) with a lag of about 60 days.
Initial Trends in Services Sector Production (April 2026)
Initial trial data for the newly launched Index of Services Production (ISP) comparing April 2026
against the base period of April 2025 demonstrates robust, broad-based economic momentum across
India's formal services sector. Highlighting pervasive expansion, 14 out of the 19 tracked sub-sectors
registered double-digit year-on-year growth, with almost all categories recording positive
performance. Growth was predominantly driven by contact-intensive and trade-related activities, led
13 | Pageby Accommodation and Food Services (+37.2%), Retail Trade (+30.8%), Administrative & Support
Services (+28.7%), Real Estate (+27.7%), and Telecommunications (+22.8%). Conversely, growth
remained subdued or negative in select transport segments, as Air Transport recorded a notable
contraction of -13.9% and Railway Transport registered a marginal decline of -0.4%.
37.2
30.8
27.7 28.6
22.7
19.2 18.5 18.2
15.3 15.6 15.2 16.5 16.4
12.1
tn
e
c
r 5.7
e p 3.3 2.5
-0.4
-14.0
e
d a r T e la s e lo h W
e
d a r T lia te R
s
e c iv r e S r ia p e R
d
o o f d n a n o ita d o m m o c c A
tro
p s n a rT y a w lia R
tr
o p s n a rT d a o R
tr
o p s n a rT re ta W
tro
p s n a rT riA
ro
f s e itiv itc a tr o p p u s d n a g n is u o
h e ra
Wn o ita tr o p s n a rt
re
iru o C d n a la ts o P
s
n o ita c in u m m o c e le T
g
n its a c d a o rB d n a n o ita m r o fn I
g
n ik n a B
e
c n a ru s n I
e
ta ts E la e R
s
e c iv r e s d e ta le r re tu p m o c d n a T
I
s
e c iv r e s la c in h c e t & c if itn e ic s ,la
n o
is
sD & R g n id u lc n i
s
e c iv re s tr o p p u s d n a e v ita rts in im
d A
s
e c iv re S n o ita e rc e R d n a tn e m n ia
tre
tn
E
e
fo ,s
r
P
trA
Source: MoSPI
Agricultural Performance and Monsoon Dynamics
Sowing moderation and mitigating El Niño risks
23. Kharif sowing for the 2026 season commenced on June 5 and the sowing is in the
preliminary stage. As on 24 July 2026, the area sown under Kharif crops is 787.37 lakh ha
(including 57.58 lakh ha in Sugarcane) as compared to 826.19 lakh ha during the corresponding
period of last year, registering a (-) 4.7 per cent year-on-year decline. The area under pulses has
declined by 7.5 per cent, rice cultivation by 2.6 per cent, and oilseeds by 2.1 per cent. However,
the latest sowing deficit has narrowed as compared with previous data, owing to improved
monsoon.19
19 PIB of MoAFW dated 27.07.2026:
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2290176®=3&lang=1
14 | Page24. Notwithstanding the slow pace of sowing, robust foodgrain buffers offer immediate
security, with cumulative KMS 2025-26 paddy procurement rising to 533.36 LMT as of May
31 (compared to 514.43 LMT in the previous period) and ongoing RMS 2026-27 wheat
procurement surging to 349.92 LMT, against last season's 300.35 LMT.
25. Looking ahead, IMD's projection of a transition to El Niño—associated with
anomalous Pacific Sea surface warming that suppresses monsoon convection—presents
downside risks, particularly for climate-sensitive rainfed pulses, oilseeds, and livestock in
vulnerable central, western, and southern regions, even as irrigated rice remains relatively
resilient. Additionally, historical evidence from Asian economies shows that El Niño affects
agricultural production across the region. The impact becomes larger as the intensity of El Niño
increases. In India, agricultural output declines during average, moderate and severe El Niño
events, with the largest decline occurring during severe El Niño episodes. Similar declines in
agricultural output have also been observed in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and South
Korea. At the regional level, agricultural output declines across both Asian Emerging
Economies (AEJ) and Emerging Asia during El Niño years. India also has the highest share of
agriculture in GDP among the selected economies, indicating that its economy is relatively
more exposed to climate-related shocks affecting agriculture. Indonesia also has a relatively
high dependence on agriculture, while the dependence is lower in China, Thailand, the
Philippines and Malaysia.20
26. Because severe monsoon deficits can transmit into elevated food CPI inflation,
weakened rural demand, and fiscal pressure from higher subsidy burdens, mitigating these
macroeconomic risks requires proactive food stock management, calibrated trade interventions,
operationalisation of district contingency plans, promotion of drought-tolerant seeds, close
monitoring of reservoir allocations, and coordinated inter-ministerial action.
Inflation quickens but remains within the tolerance band
Retail inflation moves up, but well within the tolerance band
27. Inflation continued its upward trajectory in June, with the Consumer Price Index
(CPI), rising to 4.38 per cent from 3.93 per cent in May, while continuing to remain within
RBI’s tolerance band of 2-6%. Quarterly retail inflation too jumped to 3.9 per cent in Q1FY27
from 2.7% a year earlier.
20 Asia's El Niño playbook: Eight lessons from 25 years of shocks (Asia Economic Monthly) by Nomura
15 | PageConsumer Price Index - Monthly and quarterly inflation (in per cent)
8 Headline Inflation Food Inflation
Core Inflation
6 3.9
5.32
4 4.38
3.9 3.1
2 2.9
tn
e C 0 tn
re
P-2
re eC
1.7
P
-4
0.6
-6
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
n
u J
lu
J
g
u A
p
e S
tc
O
v
o N
c
e D
n
a J
b
e F
r
a M
r
p A
y
a M
n
u J Q1FY26 Q2FY26 Q3FY26 Q4FY26 Q1FY27
Source: MoSPI
28. Two factors underl ie current inflationary pres sures – unfavourable weather conditions
that are exerting upward pressure on food inflation and the transmission of elevated global fuel
prices to the energy commodities at the retail level. The core inflation21 that indicates
underlying inflationary trends showed stability around 3.9% in June.
WPI & Output PPI inflation: relatively more volatile & sensitive to global developments
29. In contrast to the still moderate CPI /retail inflation, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
based inflation increased from 9.68 per cent in May 2026 to 9.87 per cent in June. Output
Producer Price Index (OPPI) inflation followed a trend similar to WPI inflation, rising to 9.6
per cent in June from 9.4 per cent in May. The Input PPI inflation (month-on-month) increased
from 0.7 per cent to 2.1 per cent between May and June.22
Inflation based on CPI, WPI and Output PPI 12-month rolling standard deviation: WPI,
CPI-Headline & CPI-Core inflation
CPI WPI OPPI CPI-Headline CPI-Core WPI
12
7
9.87
10 6
n
8 9.57 o ita 5
tn
6
iv
e
4
e D
C
re 4
d
ra
3
P d
4.38 n a 2
2 tS
1
0 0
5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 5 6
-2 2 - n
u J
2 - g
u A
2 - tc
O
2 - c
e D
2 - b
e F
2 - r
p A
2 - n
u J
1 -ra
M
1 -n
u J
1 - p
e S
1 - c
e D
2 -ra
M
2 -n
u J
2 - p
e S
2 - c
e D
2 -ra
M
2 -n
u J
Source: MoSPI & DPIIT Source: Calculated based o n MoSPI, DPIIT data
21 Core inflation measure is derived after excluding food, household and transport fuel. It represents 53% of the
CPI basket.
22 For Input PPI, index numbers are available from March 2026 onwards. Hence, Year on Year inflation could
not be calculated
16 | Page30. Additionally, the 12-month rolling standard deviations for wholesale and consumer
prices over the past decade suggest that WPI-based inflation generally appears more responsive
and volatile in the face of global commodity price shocks, whereas CPI (Headline & Core) is
typically less volatile and less sensitive to global price developments. Apart from economic
factors, such differences may also arise from their underlying statistical design and coverage.
CPI includes services and assigns a notable weightage to food items, whereas WPI primarily
captures price movements in goods at the wholesale level. Periods characterised by sharp global
commodity price movements have often been associated with a widening gap between the two
inflation measures, reflecting the relatively faster transmission of international price changes
to wholesale prices. In contrast, CPI inflation tends to exhibit greater persistence and is shaped
by a broader set of domestic factors, including the composition of the consumption basket, food
supply conditions and various policy interventions. The recent period illustrates this pattern,
with WPI and Output PPI responding more sharply to the surge in commodity prices, while
CPI inflation has increased more gradually, reflecting relatively slower pass-through to
consumer prices.
Output PPI Inflation in key groups/sub-groups
Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26
80
70
60
50
tn
36.4
e 40 33.7
C
r e 30
P
20 12.8 12.6
6.0 7.7
10 2.6 2.6
0
Crude Petroleum & M/o Chemicals M/o Basic Pharma M/o Basic Metals
Natural Gas
Source: DPIIT
Note: M/o stands for ‘Manufacturing of’
Top drivers of inflation in base metals in June: World and India
World India
100 88.5
85.3
80
63.0
tn 60
e C 40 37.9 37.8 30.7 36.1 33.7
r e 25.1
P
20
0
Silver Tin Platinum Copper Aluminum
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet and DPIIT
Note: Indian inflation figures are based on WPI; Tin is not available in WPI
17 | PageCPI Inflation: evolving snapshot
31. Inflationary pressures appear to have become more broad-based in the first quarter of
the year, with price increases distributed more evenly across the various CPI divisions.23 While
a majority of divisions (seven out of twelve) continued to record inflation below 4%, the
distribution of divisions across the inflation bands became more balanced, with roughly equal
numbers falling in each range. Correspondingly, the number of divisions recording inflation
above 4 per cent increased marginally in June. The uptick was driven by price pressures in
specific segments, including transport, where inflation rose to 4.3 per cent following OMC fuel
price adjustments, and restaurant and accommodation services, where inflation increased to 6.9
per cent, reflecting higher commercial LPG input costs. At the same time, underlying price
dynamics remained relatively contained. Notably, inflation in the personal care and effects
division moderated in June as inflation in gold and silver jewellery eased from the previous
month.
Evolution of broad CPI divisions under different inflation bands
APRIL MAY JUNE
7
6
6
5
s 5
n
o 4
is
iv 4
iD 3 3 3 3 3
f 3
o
.o 2 2
N 2
1 1
1
0
<2 2-4 4-6 6+
Inflation Bands (%)
Source: Calculated using MoSPI data
32. Beyond the broad-based pattern across CPI divisions, inflationary pressures remained
relatively more pronounced in rural areas, with rural retail inflation at 4.7 per cent vis-à-vis
urban areas’ 3.9 per cent in June. A rise in food inflation (5.45%) and housing inflation (2.66%)
exerted pressure on overall rural retail inflation relative to urban retail inflation, given that food
items carry a higher weight in the rural basket. In urban areas, food and housing inflation stood
at 5.09% and 1.90%, respectively.
23 The 12 CPI divisions are: Food & Beverages; Paan, tobacco & intoxicants; Clothing & Footwear; House,
Water, Gas, Electricity & Other fuels; Furnishings, household equipment & routine household maintenance;
Health; Transport; Information & Communication; Recreation, sport & culture; Education services; Restaurants
& accommodation services; Personal care, social protection & miscellaneous goods and services.
18 | PageFood inflation: pressures in vegetables, fruits and protein prices
33. Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) inflation increased to 5.32 per cent in June
compared to 4.78 per cent in May. During Q1-FY27, protein-rich items (including fish)
remained the primary driver of food inflation, contributing 38.5% in April 2026 before
moderating to around 33.4% by June. Fruits and nuts maintained a sizeable share, hovering
between 17.2% and 19.7% over the quarter. The most notable momentum shift occurred in
vegetables, whose contribution surged from 10.5% in April to a peak of 17.7% in May before
settling at 16.2% in June. Simultaneously, processed foods exhibited a steady upward trajectory,
expanding their share from 11.4% to 14.2% across the quarter, whereas edible oil contributions
progressively softened from 17.2% to 14.3%.
Food & Beverages Inflation: Major Contributors over Q1-FY27
Cereals & products Protein-rich items, including fish
Edible Oil Fruits and nuts
Vegetables Processed food
100%
11.4 12.7 14.2
10.5
80% 17.7 16.2
19.7
60% 18.2 17.2
17.2
15.5 14.3
40%
20% 38.5 33.2 33.4
0%
-0.6 1.0 3.0
-20%
Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26
Source: MoSPI
Note: Protein-rich items include milk, other dairy products, meat, fresh, chilled or frozen, fish and other
seafood. Processed food includes Ready-made food and other food products, Sugar and confectionery and other
items (Beverages). Edible oil includes oils and fats. Vegetables include vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking
bananas and pulses
34. Among vegetables, tomatoes recorded the highest inflation during the period, although
the June reading (32%) moderated significantly from May (48%). Potato prices continued to
remain in deflation, with the extent of deflation narrowing in June (-20%). Onion prices moved
from deflation over the previous five months to inflation in June (5%). Similarly, while pulses
remained largely in deflation during this period, the extent of deflation narrowed, with key
pulses such as tur (1%) and urad (2%) entering the inflationary zone. Abreast with these
developments, the Government has increased the onion procurement price for the Price
Stabilisation Buffer by 13%, from ₹1,875 to ₹2,125 per quintal (effective 4 July 2026), to
ensure better returns to farmers and strengthen buffer procurement. Onion production for 2025–
26 is estimated at 307.37 LMT (307.67 LMT in 2024–25), with adequate stocks, all-India mandi
19 | Pagearrivals exceeding 50,000 MT/day, average retail prices at ₹31/kg, and 1.50 LMT exported in
June 2026, indicating comfortable domestic availability.24
Trends in broad food categories Trends in TOP vegetables (tomato, onion,
potato) & select pulses
Cereals & products Tomato Onion Potato
Oils and fats
Meat, fresh, chilled or frozen Arhar, tur Urd
Fish and other seafood 80
16
Vegetables
60
12
40
8
tn 20
e
4 C
tn
re
P
0
e
C 0 -20
re
P
-40
-4
-8
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
- n a J - b e F -ra M -r p A -y a M -n u J - n a J - b e F -ra M -r p A -y a M -n u J
Source: MoSPI
Trends in Transport Fuel and Passenger Transport Fares (Q1 FY27)
35. The increase in retail fuel prices, following the partial pass-through of higher global
crude oil prices since mid-May 2026, was evident in June, with inflation in diesel, petrol and
CNG rising further to 8.4 per cent, 7.5 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively. Despite these
cost pressures in the transport fuel segment, the pass-through to passenger transportation
services remained moderate. Inflation in bus, taxi and auto-rickshaw fares registered only
moderate increases. Airfare inflation moderated in June after the sharp rise recorded in May,
notwithstanding elevated aviation turbine fuel (ATF) costs.
36. However, owing to improved supply conditions amid easing tensions in June, state-
owned Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) reduced the price of a 19 kg commercial LPG
cylinder by up to ₹183.50 across major cities with effect from 1 July 2026.25 Aviation Turbine
Fuel (ATF) prices were also reduced by ₹5 per litre.26 Additionally, the Government withdrew,
with effect from 1 July 2026, all temporary restrictions on the sale of petrol and diesel following
improvements in the fuel supply situation. Accordingly, the cap of 200 litres per consumer per
day on diesel sales at retail outlets has been removed, and industrial and commercial consumers
have been permitted to resume purchases from retail pumps, reversing the control measures
24 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2280999®=48&lang=1
25 https://ddnews.gov.in/en/omcs-cut-commercial-lpg-cylinder-prices-after-months-of-hikes-delhi-rate-falls-to-
rs-2930/
26 https://ddnews.gov.in/en/omcs-slash-atf-prices-by-nearly-rs-5-per-litre-amid-softer-crude-oil/
20 | Pageintroduced on 12 June 2026 to prevent hoarding, diversion, and black marketing. These
developments may support July 2026 inflation readings, particularly in the Transport and
Restaurant & Accommodation Services divisions.27,28
Transport Fuel Passenger Transport Fares
Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26
9 8.4 18
8 7.51 15
7 6.20 tn 12 10.14
e
6 C
re
9
tn 5 P
e 6 4.24
C
re
P
4
3
2.08 2.77 2.64
3
0
2 e * e e e
01 ra f lia
R
e r a f
s u B
ra f ix
a T
r a f w
a h s
ra f r iA
k
Diesel Petrol Other Natural c
Gas (CNG)
ir-o
tu
A
Source: MoSPI
*Bus fare refers to bus/tram fare for commuting to work: daily
Global Trade Performance
37. The key drivers of global trade dynamics have shifted from trade policy uncertainty in
CY 2025 to heightened geopolitical risks in CY 2026. In particular, the conflict in West Asia
has disrupted maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting energy markets, financial
conditions and key shipping routes. While global merchandise trade remained resilient at the
beginning of CY 2026, growth was increasingly concentrated in AI-related products. The
disruption to maritime transport, coupled with higher energy prices, has raised import costs and
added to inflationary and external sector pressures, particularly for emerging economies that
are heavily dependent on imported fuels, food and fertilisers. Against this backdrop of
heightened uncertainty, global growth is expected to moderate as trade, investment and supply
chains face increasing headwinds. Reflecting these developments, UNCTAD's Trade and
Development Foresights 2026 projects world merchandise trade growth, in real terms, to slow
from 4.7 per cent in CY 2025 to a range of 1.5-2.5 per cent in CY 2026.29
27 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2272080®=48&lang=2
28https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2279131®=3&lang=1
29 UNCTAD's Trade and Development Foresights 2026: https://tinyurl.com/3v4m4c2a
21 | PageTrade policy uncertainty index and Growth of merchandise trade in real terms
Geopolitical risk index
Trade policy uncertainty index
World merchandise trade
Geopolitical risk index
1200
444...777
Forecast
1000
800
2.7
x e d 600 tn 2.3 2.5
n e
I c 1.5
r
400 e
P
200
0 -0.9
0 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
- n a J -g u A -ra M -tc O -y a M - c e D -lu J - b e F - p e S -r p A -v o N -n u J 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Source: Caldara, Dario, M atteo Iacoviello, Patrick Note: The figure for 2025 i s an estimate; the figures
Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo, “The for 2026 constitute a forecast range.
Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty”, Source: UNCTAD
retrieved from https://tin yurl.com/4p5p7kzn and
“Measuring Geopolitical Risk,” retrieved from
https://tinyurl.com/33wz89es.
India’s trade performance in June 2026
38. India's trade performance remains resilient. During Q1 FY27, total exports
(merchandise & services) grew by 11.4 per cent (YoY) to USD 232.7 billion, from USD 209
billion a year ago, driven by robust merchandise export growth of 15.9 per cent (YoY).30
Nonpetroleum, non-gems and jewellery exports also maintained strong momentum, increasing
by 12.7 per cent (YoY), while services exports grew by 6.2 per cent (YoY). Total imports rose
by 17.5 per cent (YoY) to USD 270.2 billion, primarily on account of a 19.9 per cent increase
in merchandise imports. Consequently, the total trade deficit widened to USD 37.4 billion in
Q1 FY27 from USD 20.8 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
39. India’s trade performance in June 2026 was broadly in line with the trends observed in
Q1 FY27. Total exports increased by 9.5 per cent (YoY) to USD 73.4 billion from USD 67.1
billion in June 2025. Merchandise exports grew by 15.5 per cent (YoY), outpacing the 2.9 per
cent (YoY) growth in services exports, and were the primary driver of export growth during the
month.
40. Merchandise export growth reflected broad-based growth, supported by strong
performance across both petroleum and non-petroleum segments. Non-petroleum, non-gems
and jewellery exports, which accounted for 82 per cent of total merchandise exports, grew by
15.3 per cent (YoY), while value-added sectors such as engineering goods, chemicals,
30 The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for May 2026. The data for June 2026 is an estimation.
(ii) Data for April-June 2025-26 has been revised on pro-rata basis using quarterly balance of payments data.
22 | Pageelectronics, and agricultural and allied products underpinned export growth. Petroleum product
exports also increased by 9.2 per cent (YoY).
Merchandise trade Services trade
Merchandise exports Services exports Services imports
Merchandise imports Net of services trade
Merchandise trade deficit 40
80 70.8
33.0
42.1
60
30
40.4
40 32.5 n
n o
o
illib
D20
illib
D
S20
20.3
15.1
S U 0 U 9.5
17.9
10
-20 -9.6 -30.4 10.8
-40 0
Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26
Source: Department of Com merce Source: RBI and Departme nt of Commerce
41. On the import side, total imports grew by 26.8 per cent (YoY), driven primarily by a 31
per cent (YoY) increase in merchandise imports. The broad-based increase in imports of
electronic goods (58.7 per cent), non-ferrous metals (26.6 per cent), and electrical and non-
electrical machinery (30.9 per cent) is indicative of continued strength in domestic demand.
Imports of fertilisers (crude and manufactured) and pulses registered a three-fold increase
(YoY), reaching USD 2.3 billion and USD 0.3 billion, respectively. In addition, imports of
petroleum, crude and products rose by 40.1 per cent (YoY), partly reflecting the 19.3 per cent
(YoY) increase in the FOB price of the Indian basket of crude oil. Imports of precious metals
remained subdued during the month. Silver imports declined by 73.6 per cent (YoY), following
an 86.6 per cent (YoY) decline in May 2026, while gold imports grew by a modest 7.1 per cent
(YoY), compared with 33.9 per cent (YoY) in May 2026.
42. The sustained surplus in services trade remained an important cushion for India's overall
trade balance in June 2026. The services trade surplus of USD 15.1 billion offset 49.7 per cent
of the merchandise trade deficit, mitigating the impact of the wider merchandise trade deficit
on the overall trade balance. Consequently, India's total trade deficit widened to USD 15.3
billion in June 2026 from USD 2.9 billion a year earlier. While India's overall trade performance
remained resilient, the box below examines the implications of the ongoing conflict in West
Asia for the country's merchandise trade.
Box 2: India’s trade performance amidst the West Asia Crisis
The conflict in West Asia has altered regional trade dynamics, with implications for India's
merchandise trade. Against this backdrop, this section analyses the country’s merchandise trade
following the onset of the conflict.
23 | PageThe West Asia region accounted for 15 per cent of India’s total merchandise exports and 21.4 per cent
of total merchandise imports in FY25. Prior to the onset of tensions in the region, during April-
February FY26, India’s merchandise imports from West Asia grew by 4.2 per cent (YoY) to USD
143.5 billion, compared with an 8.8 per cent (YoY) increase in the country’s total merchandise imports
over the same period.
Following the onset of the conflict, India’s merchandise imports from West Asia declined sharply,
contracting by 51.6 per cent (YoY) in March 2026. The pace of decline moderated to 31.7 per cent
(YoY) in April 2026 and further to 17.7 per cent (YoY) in May 2026. In contrast, after contracting in
March 2026, India's total merchandise imports recorded positive YoY growth in April and May 2026,
as higher imports from other regions more than offset the decline in imports from West Asia.31
India’s imports to select regions
West Asia Latin America
NE Asia Africa
North America CIS & Baltics
Total imports (all regions) (RHS)
YoY growth
200 180.2 25
150 133.6 20.6 20
15
100
tn 45.2 10.0 10 tn
e e
c 50 c
r e 5 r e
P P
0
0
-17.7
-50 -31.6 -5
-6.0
-51.6
-100 -10
Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26
Source: Department of Commerce
Higher imports from Latin America (led by Brazil, Peru and Venezuela), North East Asia (China and
the Republic of Korea), the CIS & Baltics (Rus sia), North America, and West Africa more than
compensated for the continued contraction in impo rts from West Asia during April and May 2026.
Further, India's merchandise imports from West Asia are concentrated in eight major commodity
groups, which together accounted for approximately 84 per cent of total imports from the region.
While the conflict disrupted imports of these commodities from West Asia, India diversified its
sourcing towards alternative suppliers, mitigating the impact on domestic availability. The
commodity-wise changes in import sourcing are presented in the table below.
31 India’s merchandise imports declined by 6 per cent (YoY) in March 2026. In contrast, in April and May 2026,
they grew (YoY) by 10 per cent and 20.6 per cent, respectively.
24 | PageCommodity Change in imports Change in India's total Major alternate
from West Asia (May imports (May 2026 over suppliers*
2026 over February February 2026)
2026)
Petroleum + 8.2 %
crude (However, West Asia’s
share in India’s crude oil Russia, Venezuela, and
+ 93.2 %
imports decreased from Nigeria
Feb-26 (54.9%) to May-
26 (30.8%)
Petroleum United States, Russia
- 44.2% + 17.6 %
products and Trinidad
Pearls,
precious & - 12.3% Switzerland, Belgium
- 26.5%
semi-precious and Russia.
stones
Inorganic China, Japan and the
- 9.4% + 1.4 %
chemicals United States
Fertilisers Canada, Georgia and
- 19.2% - 8.2%
(manufactured) South Korea
*Note: Major alternative suppliers are ranked by the absolute increase in import value calculated as the
difference between the value imported in May 2026 and February 2026, excluding West Asian countries.
A discernible shift is evident in the sourcing pattern of India's energy imports within the West Asian
region. Crude oil imports from Oman rose significantly from negligible levels in February 2026 to
USD 1.1 billion in May 2026. Imports of petroleum products from Oman also increased substantially,
more than doubling from USD 0.2 billion in February 2026 to USD 0.5 billion in May 2026. Similarly,
crude oil imports from the UAE more than doubled, increasing from USD 1.2 billion in February 2026
to USD 2.7 billion in May 2026. These increases coincided with a decline in crude oil imports from
Iraq and Kuwait, as well as lower petroleum product imports from Qatar and Kuwait, indicating a
reallocation of energy sourcing within the region rather than a broad-based reduction in imports from
West Asia.
In contrast, imports of the other major commodities, including gold, fertiliser (crude), residual
chemicals, and allied products, registered an increase in value from West Asia during February - May
2026.
A similar pattern of adjustment was observed on the export side, although the impact was more
pronounced for certain commodity groups with relatively higher dependence on West Asian markets.
25 | PageIndia’s merchandise trade
YoY growth
West Asia
18.7
Total exports (all regions) 14.2
-2.0
tn -7.4
e
c
r
e
P
-27.3
-56.5
Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26
Source: Department of Commerce
Prior to the onset of tensions in the region, during April-February 2026, India’s merchandise exports
to West Asia grew by 4.1 per cent (YoY) to 61.9 billion, compared with a 1.2 per cent (YoY) increase
in India’s total merchandise exports over the same period.
Following the onset of the conflict, India's merchandise exports to West Asia contracted by 56.5 per
cent (YoY) in March 2026, then moderated to 27.3 per cent (YoY) in April 2026 and 2 per cent (YoY)
in May 2026. At the same time, India's overall merchandise exports declined in March 2026 and then
registered an increase during April and May 2026, indicating that stronger exports to other destinations
partly compensated for the decline in shipments to West Asia.
Twelve major commodity groups account for 54.5 per cent of India's merchandise exports to West
Asia. Of these, exports of nine commodities declined during February-May 2026. The table below
summarises the affected commodities and the principal alternative export destinations.
Commodity Change in exports to Change in India's total Major alternate
West Asia (May 2026 exports (May 2026 over destinations*
over February 2026) February 2026)
Petroleum Singapore, South Africa
- 47.8 % + 145.7 %
products and Tanzania.
Rice - 15.0 % United Kingdom, Turkey
- 31.9 %
(Basmati) and the United States.
Telecom United States, Austria
- 24 % + 27.4 %
instruments and Mexico.
Pearls, Canada, Switzerland and
precious & the United States.
- 36.5 % - 22.5 %
semi-precious
stones
Motor South Africa, Indonesia
- 48.6 % + 2.5 %
vehicles/cars and Angola.
26 | PageProducts of United States, Chile and
- 20.5 % - 0.3 %
iron & steel Taiwan.
Copper & China, South Africa and
- 17.3 % + 9.8 %
products Kenya.
Drug United States, Tanzania
formulations, - 20.7 % + 1.1 % and Turkey.
biologicals
Electric Malaysia, the United
machinery & - 13.1 % + 20 % States and the United
equipment Kingdom.
*Note: Major alternate destinations are ranked by the absolute increase in export value calculated as the
difference between the value exported in May 2026 and February 2026, excluding West Asian countries.
Petroleum products registered a significant decline in exports to West Asia, and also exhibited the
largest redirection towards alternative markets. Consequently, West Asia’s share in India’s petroleum
products exports declined from 18.7 per cent in February 2026 to 4 per cent in May 2026. This pattern
mirrors the trend in India's crude oil imports from West Asia, where imports from the region also rose
significantly even as India's total crude oil imports increased.
For commodities such as basmati rice and pearls, and precious and semi-precious stones, the increase
in exports to alternative destinations was insufficient to fully offset the decline in exports to West Asia,
reflecting relatively greater market dependence and a more limited scope for immediate
diversification.
Among the twelve major commodity groups, exports of only three, including gold and other precious
metal jewellery, buffalo meat, and ships, boats and floating structures, increased to West Asia during
February-May 2026.
Overall, India's merchandise trade performance during the period (February – May 2026) amidst the
West Asia crisis demonstrates the resilience of the external sector. While the conflict disrupted trade
flows with the region, diversification of import sources and export destinations helped mitigate its
impact. The observed trade outcomes also point to the role of timely policy interventions alongside
the adaptive response of various stakeholders in facilitating the reorientation of trade flows in a short
time period.
Developments in India’s Balance of Payments
Current Account Deficit
43. The current account recorded a surplus of USD 2.8 billion in April-May 2026, against
a deficit of USD 4.1 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. The turnaround was driven by
27 | Pagehigher remittance inflows32 and a resilient services surplus, which more than offset the wider
merchandise trade deficit.
Performance of Major Items of India's Balance of Payments on a net basis
(USD billion)
Item May 2025 May 2026 April-May April-May
PR P 2025 PR 2026 P
A. Current Account Balance 0.7 -2 -4.1 2.8
A.1 Net Merchandise -22.6 -27.9 -49.7 -55.9
A.2 Net Services 15.8 15.7 31.7 34.3
A.3 Net Transfers 10.5 13.6 20 29.6
A.4 Net Income -3 -3.4 -6 -5.2
B. Capital Account Balance 3.7 -2.4 9 -13.8
B.1 Net Foreign Direct Investment 0.9 -0.1 2.5 6.5
B.2 Net Foreign Portfolio Investment 1.3 -4.7 -0.8 -12
B.3 Net External Commercial Borrowings 2.4 0.1 4.1 0.8
B.4 Net Short-term Credit to India -0.4 3.2 -0.4 3.9
B.5 Net Banking Capital -1.6 -1.1 1.6 -4.7
B.6 Other Capital (Net) 1.2 0.2 1.9 -8.2
C. Overall Balance (A+B) 4.4 -4.4 5 -11.0
PR: Partially Revised; and P: Preliminary.
Note: 1. Errors and omissions are included under ‘Other Capital’.
2. Total of sub-components may not tally with the aggregate due to rounding off.
3. Colour coding is based on the relative
position of each observation within the historical range of the respective indicator. Green shades indicate
relatively stronger observations, red shades indicate relatively weaker observations, and intermediate shades
represent values between these extremes.
S ource: RBI
Capital Flows
44. Capital account recorded a net outflow of USD 13.8 billion during April-May 2026,
driven primarily by sustained portfolio outflows and reduced support in its other segments.
Consequently, despite the modest current account surplus, the overall Balance of Payments
recorded a deficit of USD 11.0 billion during April-May 2026.
Foreign Direct Investment
45. Global FDI flows are undergoing a structural shift in composition and geography, with
direct implications for emerging-market destinations including India. Box 3 below draws on
UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2026 to examine this shift before turning to India's FDI
performance during April-May 2026.
32 Net transfers rose sharply to USD 29.6 billion in April-May 2026 from USD 20.0 billion in the corresponding
period of 2025.
28 | PageBox 3: The Changing Geography of Global Investment
According to UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2026, global FDI flows increased by 6 per cent
to USD 1.6 trillion in 2025, marking the first increase after two consecutive years of decline.
However, the headline recovery overstates the improvement, as a significant share of the increase
reflected financial flows routed through conduit economies such as Switzerland and Ireland rather
than investment in productive assets. Excluding these financial hub flows, global FDI grew by a more
modest 4 per cent.
The recovery was also uneven across regions: inflows to developed economies increased by 11 per
cent to USD 723 billion, while developing economies recorded only 2 per cent growth to USD 901
billion. The headline recovery, therefore, masks a more selective global investment environment,
with both the type of investment and its destination becoming increasingly concentrated.
From broad-based manufacturing to strategic sectors
The changing composition of global investment is as important as its overall recovery. For decades,
developing economies attracted FDI primarily by offering low-cost, reasonably skilled labour.
Multinational manufacturers built factories to serve global supply chains, and workers moved from
subsistence activity into factory employment. This model is gradually giving way to one in which
capital is increasingly concentrated in a narrow set of strategic, technology-intensive sectors.
UNCTAD identifies five such “strategic sectors”: (i) AI infrastructure and data centres, (ii)
semiconductors, (iii) critical minerals, (iv) energy-transition technologies and (v) other advanced and
dual-use technologies such as robotics, quantum computing and space. Together, these sectors
accounted for 44 per cent of global greenfield investment announcements in 2025, up from only 16
per cent in 2020, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 39 per cent.
Strategic sectors attract nearly half of global greenfield investment
AI infrastructure & related technologies Semiconductors
13.7
Energy transition Critical minerals
600
Other advanced and sensitive technologies 21.7
51.6
500
148.1
400
n
o
illib300
D
S
U
200
341
100
16.9
50.2
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: World Investment Report 2026, UNCTAD.
Note: The figure represents announced greenfield inve stment in strategic sectors (2020-2025)
29 | PageWithin these sectors, AI infrastructure and related technologies emerged as the largest and fastest-
growing segment, rising from ~USD 50 billion in 2020 to ~USD 341 billion in 2025, accounting for
nearly three-fifths of all strategic-sector investment. Semiconductor investment also expanded
rapidly, reflecting its critical role in both AI infrastructure and advanced manufacturing.
At the same time, the value of announced greenfield investments in traditional manufacturing
(excluding strategic sectors) declined by 17 per cent between 2015-19 and 2021-25. Within this
contracting trend, manufacturing investment has become more concentrated, with the EU, China, the
United States, South Korea, and Japan collectively representing nearly 70 per cent of the total.
The result is an increasingly concentrated investment landscape. In 2025, the top three recipient
economies accounted for 56 per cent of all strategic-sector investment, while the top three source
economies contributed 72 per cent. Thus, rather than being broadly distributed, strategic investment
is increasingly concentrated in a limited number of sectors and locations.
Governments are reshaping global investment
As firms have become more selective, governments have also become more active in shaping
international investment flows. In 2025, governments in 104 countries adopted a record 229
investment-related policy measures, reflecting growing use of investment policy instruments to
attract strategic investment while safeguarding national interests.
On the one hand, incentive schemes, including targeted grants, tax credits, and production-linked
support, are increasingly directed towards semiconductors, battery manufacturing, AI infrastructure,
and other frontier technologies, often accompanied by conditions related to local value addition,
technology transfer, or employment generation. On the other hand, investment screening has
expanded significantly.33 The total number of economies with a screening regime increased from 21
in 2016 to 52 in 2025, while the scope of sectors considered strategically sensitive has broadened to
include data centres, AI companies, telecommunications infrastructure and critical minerals.
Developing economies also face increasing policy constraints arising from investor-state dispute
settlement (ISDS) mechanisms. In 2025, investors initiated 56 arbitration cases, nearly 80 per cent
of them against developing economies, with about a third linked to extractive activity, including
critical-mineral mining.
India's position in the evolving investment landscape34
Against this backdrop, India performed relatively well in 2025. While FDI inflows into developing
economies grew by only 2 per cent overall, inflows into South Asia increased by 35 per cent, driven
largely by India. India's FDI inflows rose by 44 per cent to USD 38.9 billion, improving its position
33 Measures related to FDI screening on national security grounds accounted for nearly 40 per cent of all
restrictive investment measures adopted in 2025, all of which were introduced by developed economies.
34 All data and analysis presented in this Box are based on the World Investment Report 2026 published by
UNCTAD. Investment data reported by UNCTAD are compiled on a calendar year (CY) basis, whereas FDI
statistics for India published by the RBI are reported on a financial year (FY) basis. Consequently, the figures
presented in this Box may differ from those reported elsewhere in this publication
30 | Pageto 11th among the world's largest FDI recipients and placing it ahead of economies such as France,
Indonesia, Viet Nam and Spain. Outward FDI also increased to USD 35.7 billion, although this was
influenced by a single large overseas acquisition.35
India’s FDI inflows and outflows
FDI inflows FDI outflows
64
49
n 39
o
illib
D 27 36
S
U
24
15
11
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: World Investment Report 2026, UNCTAD.
At the same time, forward-looking investment indicators present a more nuanced picture. The value
of announced greenfield investment projects moderated to about USD 74 billion in 2025, with the
slowdown concentrated in manufacturing. By contrast, services investment remained resilient and,
for the first time, exceeded manufacturing investment in value terms. Information and
communication technologies emerged as the largest recipient sector, reflecting continued investment
in digital infrastructure, alongside renewed activity in financial services.
Taken together, these developments suggest that the nature of global FDI competition is undergoing
a structural transformation, characterised by greater concentration of capital across sectors,
technologies and destinations. In this environment, a country's ability to provide policy certainty,
foster innovation ecosystems and build resilient production networks will increasingly determine its
attractiveness as an investment destination. Consequently, for emerging economies, attracting FDI is
less about factor-cost advantages and more about integrating into strategic sectors and global value
chains.
46. Against this backdrop, net FDI increased to USD 6.5 billion during April-May 2026,
compared with USD 2.5 billion in the corresponding period of 2025, supported by robust gross
inflows of USD 21.4 billion, which exceeded repatriation and outward investment over the two-
month period. This cumulative improvement was largely driven by strong net inflows in April
2026, as net FDI declined to USD (-) 0.1 billion in May 2026 from USD 0.9 billion in May
2025.
35 Rana Group's USD 10 billion automotive investment in the UAE.
31 | PageForeign Direct Investment Foreign Portfolio Investment
Outbound FDI Repatriation Equity Debt
Gross FDI inflows Net FDI Mutual Fund Hybrid
AIF Net FPI
15 10
6.6
5
n o illib 5 n o illib 0
D D -5
S S
U-5 U
-10
-15 -15
5 2 -r p A 5 2 -y a M 5 2 -n u J 5 2 -lu J 5 2 -g u A 5 2 - p e S 5 2 -tc O 5 2 -v o N 5 2 - c e D 6 2 - n a J 6 2 - b e F 6 2 -ra M 6 2 -r p A 6 2 -y a M 6 2 - n a J 6 2 - b e F 6 2 -ra M 6 2 -r p A 6 2 -y a M 6 2 -n u J * 6 2 -lu J
Source: RBI Source: NSDL
Note: *As of July 20, 2026.
Foreign Portfolio Inve stment
47. Supported by recent policy measures, net FPI flows turned positive in June (USD 0.5
billion) after three consecutive months of outflows. The recovery strengthened in July, with net
inflows of USD 2.9 billion (as of July 20), led by debt investments, including USD 1.9 billion
in Government Securities through the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) and the General Route.
However, FPI flows continue to reflect persisting investor caution amid renewed tensions in
West Asia.
Other capital flows
48. Other capital account components, including External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs)
and banking capital, particularly FCNR(B) deposits, are also expected to receive support from
the measures announced by the Government of India and RBI to facilitate foreign capital
inflows (discussed in Box 3 of the June 2026 Monthly Economic Review).
49. These facilities offer concessional swaps for fresh FCNR(B) deposits and for Overseas
Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) and ECBs.36 While their full impact across channels
will take longer to appear in BoP data, early responses to these measures have been
encouraging. Since their launch, cumulative inflows have reached USD 20.7 billion as of July
17, 2026, comprising USD 17.4 billion in FCNR(B) deposits, USD 2.0 billion in OFCBs, and
USD 1.3 billion in ECBs. As these inflows fall outside the April-May window covered by RBI's
latest BoP release, their impact is expected to become visible in BoP data from June 2026
onwards.
36 Announced on June 5, 2026, and operationalised from June 8, 2026, these facilities offer concessional swaps
for fresh FCNR(B) deposits and for Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) and ECBs, and remain
available up to September 30, 2026, for FCNR(B) deposits and up to December 31, 2026, for OFCBs and ECBs.
32 | PageForeign Exchange Reserves & Exchange Rate
50. Despite the BoP deficit during April-May 2026, India's external sector remains
supported by comfortable foreign exchange reserves. As of July 10, 2026, reserves stood at
USD 675.2 billion, providing import cover of around 10 months and covering 88.5 per cent of
external debt (end-March 2026).
Foreign Exchange Reserves Exchange Rate
FCA Gold SDR INR/USD exchange rate
98
RTP FER
750
97
675.2
700
96
650
95
600
550 94 NI
R
500 93 U/
S
450 92 D
400 91
350
90
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 *
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6
-r p A -y a M -n u J -lu J -g u A - p e S -tc O -v o N - c e D - n a J - b e F -ra M -r p A -y a M -n u J 2 -lu J 2 - b e F 2 -ra M 2 -r p A 2 -y a M 2 -n u J
Source: RBI Source: RBI
Note: As of July 10, 2026 Note: Last value of INR/US D is as of July 20, 2026
51. The rupee depreciated by about 5.8 per cent against the US dollar between 27 February
2026 and 24 July 2026. Similar trends have been observed across several other currencies,
including the Thai baht (-7.8 per cent), Indonesian rupiah (-6.6 per cent), Japanese yen (-4.7
per cent), and Korean won (-1.3 per cent). Clearly, heightened global risk aversion amid
geopolitical tensions and elevated expectations for crude oil prices weighed on investor
sentiment and capital flows during the period.
52. Overall, India's external sector entered FY27 on a cautious but improving note. While
geopolitical tensions and elevated global uncertainty continue to pose risks through trade,
commodity prices and capital flows, the external sector has demonstrated resilience. Strong
export performance, a sustained services surplus and robust remittance inflows have supported
the current account, while recent policy measures are expected to strengthen capital inflows in
the coming months. Together with comfortable foreign exchange reserves, these developments
are expected to help preserve external sector stability amid an uncertain global environment.
Labour Market Developments
53. India's labour market remains resilient, with stable labour force participation and
unemployment indicators alongside improving hiring activity. According to the latest monthly
33 | PagePeriodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data, the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR)37 (for
individuals aged 15 and above) for June 2026 remained stable at 54.4 per cent compared to
54.2 per cent in June 2025. The overall Unemployment Rate (UR)38 remained at 5.5 per cent in
June 2026, compared to the 5.6 per cent recorded in June 2025.39
Labour Force Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%)
FY27 FY26 FY27 FY26
57
6.0
56 5.6
5.6
56
tn
e c55 54.2 tn e5.2
r e55 c
r
P e4.8
P
54
54 4.4
54.4 5.5
53 4.0
lir p A y a M e n u J y lu J ts u g u A r e b m e tp e S r e b o tc O r e b m e v o N r e b m e c e D y r a u n a J y r a u r b e F h c r a M lir p A y a M e n u J y lu J ts u g u A r e b m e tp e S r e b o tc O r e b m e v o N re b m e c e D y r a u n a J y ra u r b e F h c ra M
Source: Monthly PLFS bulletin for July 2026 (15 years and above; in current week ly status)
54. While overall LF PR remain unchanged from the level recorded in the previous month,
urban areas registered a modest improvement in participation, with the LFPR rising to 50.1 per
cent in June 2026 from 49.8 per cent in May 2026. At the same time, urban UR rose to 6.6 per
cent in June 2026, up fr om 6.4 per cent in May.
Million-plus cities as engines of growth
55. These national and urban-level trends set the context for a closer look at India's million-
plus cities, which are central to understanding how urban employment opportunities are
evolving. Cities are central to driving economic growth, fostering innovation, and generating
employment and warrant a deeper examination of the factors that shape the labour market in
the urban areas. Understanding what these cities offer workers is central to assessing whether
urbanisation is translating into quality employment opportunities.
56. In June 2026, the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released
two reports to give a city-level view of India's urban labour markets: Labour Market Dynamics
in Million-plus Cities (based on PLFS 2025 household data)40 and Urban Unincorporated
37 Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is defined as the percentage of the population in the labour force.
Labour force, according to Current Weekly Status (CWS), is the number of persons either employed or
unemployed on average in a week of 7 days preceding the date of the survey.
38 Unemployment rate (UR) is defined as the percentage of unemployed persons in the labour force. According
to the CWS approach, a person was considered unemployed in a week if he/she did not work even for 1 hour on
any day during the reference week but sought or were available for work at least for 1 hour on any day during
the reference week.
39 Monthly PLFS bulletin for June 2026: https://www.mospi.gov.in/publications-reports
40 Labour Market Dynamics in Million-plus Cities June 2026: https://www.mospi.gov.in/publications-reports
34 | PageEnterprise Landscape: ASUSE 2025 (based on unincorporated enterprise survey data).41 Taken
together, these reports offer a dual perspective on economic activity in India's 46 million-plus
cities (Box 4).
Box 4: Labour dynamics in India’s million-plus cities
Urban areas in India are categorised by the Ministry of Housing & Urban Affairs into different
segments based on population size: small towns (less than 50,000), medium towns (50,000 to less
than 5 lakh), large towns (5–10 lakh), and metropolitan cities (10 lakh and above). According to the
2011 Census, 46 Municipal Corporations with a population of 10 lakh or more account for 10.69 per
cent of the total urban area but house 30.66 per cent of the urban population, indicating notably higher
population densities. These million-plus cities play a critical role in the country’s economic
landscape, with a high concentration of economic activity, a favoured destination for migration, and
a driver of national productivity. 42
According to MoSPI’s Labour Market Dynamics in Million-plus Cities report, the LFPR (in usual
status for persons aged 15 years and above)43 in million-plus cities stood at 52.4 per cent in 2025,
broadly comparable to the urban India average of 52.2 per cent. A similar pattern held for the Worker
Population Ratio44, at 49.8 per cent against urban India's 49.7 per cent. The Unemployment Rate for
million-plus cities was 4.9 per cent. Further, the ‘Urban Unincorporated Enterprise Landscape:
ASUSE 2025 Insights from Million-Plus Cities’ report informs that the 46 million-plus cities account
for roughly 13 per cent of establishments and 16 per cent of workers nationally, and 21 per cent of
Gross Value Added in the unincorporated non-agricultural sector. Many of the million-plus cities
have GVA per worker and GVA per establishment higher than those of urban areas, reflecting higher
productivity. These figures suggest that million-plus cities are not outperforming the rest of urban
India in participation; rather, the real story lies in the employment structure these urban centres
generate.
The distinctiveness between million-plus cities and urban areas is evident in the distribution of
employment by status, sector, and wage levels. Regular wage or salaried employment accounts for
58.5 per cent of workers in million-plus cities, significantly higher than the 47.6 per cent across urban
India. At the same time, casual labour is correspondingly lower, indicating a more formalised labour
market in these urban centres. In terms of industry composition, services employ the largest share of
workers (68 per cent), followed by manufacturing (21.6 per cent), with agriculture accounting for a
negligible 1.6 per cent, reflecting a services-led employment structure. This formalisation and
sectoral composition also carry a wage premium for million plus city workers: self-employed workers
in million-plus cities earn an average of ₹30,858 per month against ₹23,013 in urban India, regular
wage/salaried employees earn ₹28,808 against ₹26,258, and casual labourers earn ₹624 per day
41 Urban Unincorporated Enterprise Landscape: Asuse 2025 Insights From Million-Plus Cities June 2026:
https://www.mospi.gov.in/publications-reports
42 https://niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2026-04/Moving-Towards-Effective-City-Government-a-Framework-for-
Million-Plus-Cities.pdf
43 The activity status of a person is determined on the basis of the activities pursued by the person during the
specified reference period. When the activity status is determined on the basis of the reference period of last 365
days preceding the date of survey, it is known as the usual activity status of the person.
44 WPR is defined as the percentage of employed persons in the population
35 | Pageagainst ₹550, with the premium particularly pronounced for women, whose self-employment
earnings are about 58 per cent higher than the urban India average.
Female employment in million-plus cities shows an encouraging trend, with female workers not only
earning significantly higher wages than in other urban areas but also having a larger share in regular
wage employment (65.1 per cent) than male workers (56.4 per cent). This suggests that when women
enter the workforce in these cities, they disproportionately access its more formal segment. At the
same time, the primary constraint on participation for male and female workers remains stark. 68.7
per cent of women outside the labour force cite childcare or homemaking responsibilities as the
reason, compared to just 1.0 per cent of men, confirming that the burden of unpaid domestic
responsibility acts as the binding constraint on female urban employment. To tackle this structural
issue, various editions of the Annual Economic Survey of the Government of India have highlighted
that the provision of a flexible work policy and the availability of childcare facilities and crèches will
help increase female participation in paid work.
These findings suggest that million-plus cities are not only engines of growth but also of higher-
quality employment, with a greater proportion of salaried jobs, company employment, and service-
sector-led work, alongside a wage premium which will continue to draw workers as these urban
centres expand. Sustaining this requires a policy focus on the infrastructure that underpins such
growth. Structural barriers, such as inadequate safe and affordable housing, weak urban mobility, and
limited childcare infrastructure, continue to limit both the scale and inclusiveness of this employment
growth. Tackling these issues requires action on both land and infrastructure, as suggested in the
Economic Survey 2025-26. The survey recommends clearer land titles, transit-oriented development
to expand affordable housing, better public transport to improve mobility, and a shift from basic
coverage to efficient, circular sanitation and water systems. These investments will only work
alongside stronger city governance, better finances, and real accountability. 45
AI/ML roles lead white-collar hiring.
57. White‑collar hiring in India grew over 6 per cent in June 2026, driven by the strong
hiring momentum for AI and machine learning roles, which saw a 25 per cent YoY rise in June
2026 (Naukri JobSpeak 2026). The non-IT sector continues to show strong hiring momentum,
led by the insurance sector (+16 per cent) and FMCG (+7 per cent). Notably, fresher hiring
(personnel with less than 3 years of experience), which represents entry-level roles, registered
an 8 per cent YoY growth in June 2026. Across functions, Media Production & Entertainment
(+24 per cent), Healthcare & Life Sciences (+22 per cent), IT & Information Security (+18 per
cent), Production, Manufacturing & Engineering (+14 per cent) and Marketing &
Communications (+12 per cent) recorded strong growth in hiring in June 2026.
45 Economic survey 2025-26: https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/eschapter/echap15.pdf
36 | PageWhite Collar hiring trend
Overall index YoY Growth (RHS)
3,500 50%
3,027
2,854
3,000 30% e
2,582 t a
e r
u la 2,500 10% h t
v w
x e 2,000 10.5% 6.1%-10% o r
d g
n I -7.6% Y
1,500 -30% o
Y
1,000 -50%
3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
n g t c b r n g t c b r n g t c b r n
u J u A c O e D e F p A u J u A c O e D e F p A u J u A c O e D e F p A u J
Source: Naukri JobSpeak Index June 2026
Preparing for the future of AI
58. Complementing the findings of the Naukri Jobspeak Index, LinkedIn’s Grads’ Guide
2026 suggests that AI Specialist, Generative AI Engineer, and Digital Content Creator roles
have emerged as the fastest-growing job titles in India, reflecting the effect of AI and digital
platforms in opening up entirely new career pathways for job seekers. Further, Human
Resources and consulting are the fastest-growing functions for graduates, whereas utilities and
education are the fastest-growing industries actively hiring graduates. Regional hiring trends
indicate that job opportunities are expanding beyond traditional employment hubs, with
Vijayawada (Andhra Pradesh), Kolkata (West Bengal), and Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh)
emerging as the fastest-growing regions for early-career hiring.46
59. These findings together point towards a changing workforce dynamic for India. The
story of the demographic dividend is well known, but to reap its benefits requires strategies that
focus on improving workforce employability in response to changing labour market demands.
Rising demand for AI skills and jobs is reshaping opportunities for the Indian workforce.
According to the World Bank’s South Asia Development Update Report, AI-related job
opportunities in South Asia are heavily concentrated in India and Sri Lanka, with India
accounting for the majority of listings.47
60. The rising demand for a skilled workforce is evident from India’s Global Capability
Centre (GCC) landscape, which has 2117 active GCCs operating 3728 GCC units employing
46 LinkedIn’s Grads’ Guide 2026 tracked the fastest-growing opportunities for career starters across India by job
title, industry, function, and region. The report analysed anonymised, combined data from LinkedIn member
profiles between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2025. Career starters are members whose most recent
education or training was a high school diploma, an associate’s degree, a bachelor’s degree, or an
apprenticeship. The fastest-growing jobs, functions, industries, and regions are identified by examining
members’ first full-time jobs after graduation and comparing hiring trends during the three-year period. Only
areas where new graduate hiring did not decline between the first and final years are included. Similar job titles
were grouped together. Internships, volunteer work, temporary roles, and student positions were excluded.
https://tinyurl.com/2kew68v9
47 PIB release 12 February 2026:
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2226912®=3&lang=1
37 | Pageover 23.6 lakh professionals, including over 2,50,000 AI/ML professionals, making up around
28 per cent of the global GCC AI talent pool, second only to the US.48 This trend is further
corroborated by LinkedIn’s annual Skills on the Rise 2026 list, which reports that demand for
AI-related skills and soft skills in India is rising across diverse job domains.49
61. Education and skilling play a crucial role in determining how effectively economies can
harness AI adoption to enhance productivity. This requires agile education and skilling systems
that are responsive to evolving industry needs. Assessing India’s preparedness for the future of
work, therefore, requires a comprehensive understanding of its skilling ecosystem. In this
context, the QS World Future Skills Index 2027 evaluates how effectively economies develop,
align, and apply skills in a rapidly changing global economy.50 In this index, India ranks 13th
globally, surpassing Sweden and Japan. With an overall score of 89.4, it ranks among the top
countries in preparing its labour market for emerging technologies like artificial intelligence.
Further, India ranks 5th globally in the future-of-work sub-index, which captures the intensity
of employer demand for future-oriented skills, highlighting the scale of the opportunity for
India. According to the index, India scored 93.3 in the economic transformation sub-index,
which measures the economic conditions that enable countries to convert skills into
productivity, innovation, and growth.
62. Complementing the QS skills index, the latest data from the All-India Survey on Higher
Education (AISHE) 2023-24 shows clear progress in how the country is preparing its future
workforce through the higher education system.51 The report reveals growth in access to higher
education, with the Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) rising to 30 in 2023-24, up from 29.5 in
2022-23 and 23.7 in 2014-15. The female GER also increased to 31.2 in 2023-24. The STEM
enrolment has increased significantly over the decade, expanding from 91.5 lakh in 2014-15 to
1.02 crore in 2023-24. Within the domain of Engineering and Technology, Computer
Engineering has the highest overall enrolment, followed by Electronics Engineering,
Mechanical Engineering, Civil Engineering, Electrical Engineering, and Information
Technology. The specialised emerging sub-streams are rapidly gaining attraction, with AI &
ML and AI & Data Science recording notable enrolments of approximately 53.6 thousand and
51.6 thousand students, respectively. Further, 58 per cent of the universities covered under
AISHE have reported signing an MoU for industry linkages.52 These developments highlight
48 Zinnov, & Nasscom. (2026). India GCC landscape report 2026 https://tinyurl.com/mryuwx7j
49 LinkedIn’s annual list of Skills on the Rise 2026 https://tinyurl.com/yvx5ntp4
50 The Index aggregates four pillars, each accounting for 25% of the total score: Skills Alignment [Human
cognitive skills (problem-solving, critical thinking), Human-centred leadership (communication, management),
Entrepreneurial mindset, Sustainable and ethical workforce capacity, World Bank Juman Capital Index],
Academic Readiness [Strength of institutions (number and performance of ranked universities), Subject
competitiveness across disciplines, AI, digital, and green education capacity, Breadth and quality of student
cities), Future of Work (measuring AI, digital, and green job market exposure), and Economic
Transformation (encompassing economic capacity, workforce readiness, and future-oriented innovation
metrics)
QS World Future Skills Index 2027: Mapping the global alignment between higher education systems and
workforce needs. London: QS Analyst Insights. https://tinyurl.com/3pwxvx9a
51 All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) 2023-24. https://tinyurl.com/35a936h7
52 Ibid note above
38 | Pagethe progress made towards transforming the higher education system and industry-driven
skilling, which remains central to building job-ready talent and strengthening skill-industry
linkages.
Outlook & Conclusion
63. The global economy continues to face heightened uncertainty amid geopolitical
tensions and evolving trade and financial conditions, with risks to the outlook remaining tilted
to the downside. Against this backdrop, India's macroeconomic fundamentals and domestic
demand are expected to continue supporting economic activity. RBI has forecast 6.6% growth
for FY27, with downside risks.
64. While global crude price fluctuations from geopolitical events and potential El Niño
weather patterns are being carefully monitored, the domestic inflation outlook remains cautious
and structurally well-supported, anchored by active measures to support price stability, robust
agricultural commodity procurement and targeted contingency plans in place. Internationally,
the IMF projects global headline inflation at a manageable 4.7 per cent for 2026 while the RBI’s
Monetary Policy Committee maintains an unchanged policy repo rate of 5.25 per cent with a
neutral stance, forecasting FY27 CPI inflation at a manageable 5.1 per cent.
65. The revised Index of Core Industries (Base Year: 2022–23) recorded a robust 5.0 per
cent year-on-year growth in June 2026, while the revised IIP indicates that manufacturing
activity remained resilient in May 2026, supported by sustained capital goods-led investment
despite some moderation from the high growth recorded earlier in the year. Going forward,
continued implementation of strategic initiatives across semiconductors through Semicon 2.0,
critical minerals, coal gasification and shipbuilding, together with recent measures to
streamline regulatory compliance and facilitate manufacturing, is expected to strengthen
domestic manufacturing capabilities, enhance supply-chain resilience and improve the
competitiveness of India's industrial sector. Progress in emerging sectors such as commercial
space and hydrogen-based mobility further reflects the broadening of India's industrial and
technological capabilities in support of long-term sustainable growth. At the same time, the
sustained firmness in prices of industrial metals, rare earths and other critical minerals is a
reminder that resilience-building activities should not be merely a response to real and ongoing
vulnerabilities. Building adequate buffers across energy and industrial metals will likely remain
important to India's industrial and macroeconomic stability going forward.
66. Even as geopolitical frictions persist and impact trade and cross-border capital flows,
India's external sector exhibits notable resilience. Strong export performance, a services trade
surplus, and consistent remittance flows have strengthened the current account. Furthermore,
recent policy measures will provide an impetus to capital inflows in the near term. Together
with adequate foreign exchange reserves, these factors are expected to reinforce the external
sector’s resilience.
39 | Page67. Nevertheless, the recent resurgence in global crude oil prices, if sustained, could re-
emerge as a source of pressure on financing of both the fiscal deficit and the current account
balance.
68. Overall, despite heightened global uncertainties, India's economic outlook remains
underpinned by resilient domestic fundamentals, continued policy support, and strengthening
structural drivers of growth. Structural reforms of the last decade and infrastructure investments
are contributing to growth resilience as is evident in the data for the months of March to June
2026. However, upside risk to inflation, fiscal and current account deficits and downside risk
to growth remain in the wake of persistent stand-off in the Gulf region. Global developments
related to AI and weaponisation of supply chains in general are reminders of the distance India
needs to travel to achieve long-term resilience and strategic leverage. Swifter policy responses
and their implementation are vital to encourage foreign and domestic investment in the Indian
economy. Recent years have been a time for hunkering down and battening down the hatches.
Coming years will be no exception.
****
For feedback and queries, one may write to: mer-dea@gov.in.
This document has been prepared by Ajay Ojha, Amit Kumar Kesarwani, Anshu Kalshyan, Arun C.
Adatte, Deepdyuti Sarkar, Deepika Srivastava, Gargi Rao, Gurvinder Kaur, Manasvi Nagpal, Mira
Sethi, Monika, Mritunjay Kumar, Pavit, Rajesh Kumar Sharma, Rohit Kumar, Sahar, Shruti Singh,
Simran, Snehil Shandilya, Sonali Chowdhry, and Vishnu K Venugopal.
40 | PagePerformance of High Frequency Indicators
Year to Date Year to Date (YoY Growth)
YTD Period/As
Data Title Unit at the end of 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
Agriculture
Fertiliser Sales Lakh Tonnes Apr-May 85.9 58.3 64.0 -0.5 -32.1 9.8
Domestic Tractor Sales Lakh Apr-Jun 2.6 2.9 3.4 0.4 9.6 18.9
Foodgrain Production Mn Tonnes 3rd AE 357.7 376.5 - 7.7 5.3 -
Bn Cu.
Reservoir Level Metres 16th July 54.6 104.0 63.3 - 90.5 -39.2
Wheat Procurement (RMS) LMT Mar-21 July 265.9 299.8 350.5 2.0 12.8 16.9
Kharif Sowing (Foodgrain) Mn Hectare 17th July 35.5 38.3 35.5 -1.6 8.0 -7.5
Rainfall Milimeter 20th July 337.3 366.4 263.2 -4.1 8.6 -28.2
Credit to Agriculture and allied activities ₹ Lakh crore 31st May 21.4 22.9 26.4 21.6 7.0 15.3
Industry
IIP Index Apr-May 110.2 114.7 120.5 7.2 4.1 5.1
9-Core Industries Index Apr-Jun 113.1 114.2 118.3 6.5 1.0 3.6
Domestic Auto Sales Lakh Apr-Jun 68.8 69.2 85.2 16.8 0.5 23.2
PMI Manufacturing Index Apr-Jun 58.2 58.1 54.6 0.3 -0.1 -3.5
Power consumption Billion kWh Apr-May 299.7 296.0 316.8 11.4 -1.2 7.0
Bn Cu.
Natural gas production Metres Apr-May 6.1 5.9 5.6 7.4 -2.9 -4.5
Cement production Index Apr-Jun 193.8 122.6 133.4 25.2 -36.7 8.8
Steel consumption Mn Tonnes Apr-Jun 11.8 12.7 13.9 14.6 7.6 9.1
41 | PageYear to Date Year to Date (YoY Growth)
YTD Period/As
Data Title Unit at the end of 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
Inflation
CPI-C Index Apr-Jun 99.1 102.0 106.0 4.9 2.9 3.9
WPI Index Apr-Jun 100.3 100.3 109.6 1.7 0.0 9.3
CFPI Index Apr-Jun 100.1 100.8 105.6 8.9 0.7 4.8
Services
Domestic Air Passenger Traffic Lakh Apr-May 544.2 577.4 591.1 4.9 6.1 2.4
Port Cargo Traffic Mn tonnes Apr-Jun 208.4 220.0 233.6 4.1 5.6 6.2
PMI Services Index Apr-Jun 60.5 59.3 58.7 -0.1 -1.2 -0.6
Fuel Consumption Mn. tonnes Apr-Jun 61.2 61.6 58.5 3.9 0.6 -5.0
UPI (Volume) Crore Apr-Jun 4122.5 5496.6 6826.5 49.3 33.3 24.2
E-Way Bill Volume Crore Apr-Jun 30.0 36.1 40.6 16.0 20.5 12.4
Fiscal Indicators
Gross tax revenue (Central Govt) ₹ Lakh crore Apr-May 4.6 5.2 5. 2 15.8 12.1 1.8
Revenue Expenditure ₹ Lakh crore Apr-May 4.8 5.2 6.3 4.7 9.4 20.1
Capital Expenditure ₹ Lakh crore Apr-May 1.4 2.2 2.5 -14.4 54.1 13.4
Fiscal Deficit ₹ Lakh crore Apr-May 0.5 0.1 1.6 -75.9 -74.0 1133.4
Primary Deficit ₹ Lakh crore Apr-May -0.7 -1.3 -0.2 -173.5 83.9 -85.8
GST Collection ₹ Lakh crore Apr-Jun 5.2 5.8 6.3 11.4 11.2 8.4
External Sector
Merchandise exports USD Billion Apr-Jun 114.0 111.6 129.3 9.8 -2.2 15.9
Non-petroleum exports USD Billion Apr-Jun 89.8 94.5 106.3 5.8 5.3 12.4
Merchandise imports USD Billion Apr-Jun 172.1 180.3 216.2 7.8 4.8 19.9
Non-oil imports USD Billion Apr-Jun 120.6 131.1 155.6 2.3 8.7 18.7
Non-oil non-gold/silver imports USD Billion Apr-Jun 111.9 122.6 144 3.4 9.5 17.4
42 | PageYear to Date Year to Date (YoY Growth)
YTD Period/As
Data Title Unit at the end of 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
Net FDI USD Billion Apr-May 4.0 2.5 6.5 16.3 -37.9 162.8
Exchange Rate (Average) INR/USD Jun 83.5 85.9 95.0 -1.5 -2.8 -9.5
Foreign Exchange Reserves USD Billion Jun 652 698.1 666.9 9.6 7.1 -4.5
Import Cover Months Jun 11 11.5 10.3 - - -
Monetary and Financial
Total Bank Credit ₹ Lakh crore 15 Jul 168.1 184.7 217.3 14.0 9.9 17.7
Non-Food Credit ₹ Lakh crore 15 Jul 167.8 184.1 216.1 14.0 9.7 17.4
10-Year Bond Yields Per cent 17 Jul 7.0 6.31 6.78 -8 -69 47
Repo Rate Per cent 24 Jul 6.5 5.5 5.25 0 -100 -25
Currency in Circulation ₹ Lakh crore 15 Jul 35.7 38.1 43.0 6.6 6.6 12.8
M0 ₹ Lakh crore 15 Jul 46.8 49.6 52.3 5.8 3.7 6.4
Employment
Net payroll additions under EPFO Lakh Apr-July 44.7 69.0 - -3.1 54.4 -
No. of person demanded employment under MGNREGA Crore June 3.4 3.5 2.9 -22.5 3.6 -17.3
Unemployment Rate Per cent May - 5.6 5.5 - - -10
Subscriber Additions: National Pension Scheme (NPS) Lakh Apr-Mar 8.2 9.9 - -12.2 20.3
Notes on Performance of HFIs:
• For all indicators except CPI-C, WPI, CPFI, Fiscal deficit, Primary deficit, Exchange rate, 10-year bond yield, repo rate, MGNREGA and unemployment rate, colour
shading is based on percentiles: values in the top 90th percentile are shaded green, those in the bottom 10th percentile are red, and growth rates near zero are shown in
yellow, with intermediate shades reflecting relative performance. For the indicators listed above, the colour interpretation is reversed.
• The performance of the repo rate, 10-yr bond yield, and unemployment rate variables is presented in basis points, not as growth rates.
• PMI growth is the difference between the index values of two years. GST collection is calculated as the sum of the central, state, and integrated GST.
****
43 | Page