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Ministry of Finance
Department of Economic Affairs
Economic Division
4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012
MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT
JUNE 2017
*****
HIGHLIGHTS
As per the provisional estimates of national income, released by the Central Statistics Office
(CSO) on 31st May, 2017, growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant market
prices was 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 as compared to 8.0 per cent in 2015-16.
The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant basic prices for the year 2016-17 is
estimated at 6.6 per cent, as compared to 7.9 per cent in 2015-16. At the sectoral level,
agriculture, industry and services sectors grew at the rate of 4.9 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 7.7
per cent respectively in 2016-17.
Stocks of foodgrains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on 1st July 2017 were 58.7 million tonnes,
as compared to 54.8 million tonnes as on 1st July, 2016.
The growth in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was 1.7 per cent in May 2017, as compared to
a growth of 8.0 per cent in May 2016.
Production of eight core infrastructure industries grew by 3.6 per cent in May 2017, as
compared to 5.2 per cent in May 2016.
Growth of Money Supply on year on year (YoY) basis as on 23rd June 2017 stood at 7.4 per
cent as compared to a growth rate of 10.3 per cent recorded in the corresponding period in
the previous year.
The value of merchandise exports and imports increased by 4.4 per cent and 19.0 per cent
respectively in US dollar terms in June 2017 over June 2016. During June 2017, the value of
oil and non-oil imports increased by 12.0 per cent and 21.2 per cent respectively over June
2016.
Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 386.6 billion at end June 2017, as compared to
US$ 370 billion at end March 2017. The rupee depreciated against the US dollar, Euro and
Japanese Yen by 0.03 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively, while appreciated
against Pound sterling by 0.8 per cent in June 2017 over May 2017.
The WPI headline inflation (with base year 2011-12) declined to 0.9 per cent in June 2017
from 2.2 per cent in May 2017. CPI (New Series) inflation declined to 1.5 per cent in June 2017
from 2.2 per cent in May 2017.
Gross tax revenue in May 2017 recorded a growth of 25.0 per cent over May 2016. Tax revenue
(net to Centre) increased by 36.2 per cent during May 2017.
The budget estimate of the fiscal deficit for 2017-18 has been set at 3.2 per cent of GDP as
compared to 3.5 per cent in 2016-17(RE).
(Narendra Jena)
Economic Officer
jena.narendra@nic.in
11. ECONOMIC GROWTH
As per the provisional estimates of national income, released by CSO on 31st May, 2017, growth
rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant market prices is placed at 7.1 per cent in
2016-17 as compared to 8.0 per cent in 2015-16 (Table 1).
The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant basic prices for the year 2016-17 is
estimated at 6.6 per cent, as compared to 7.9 per cent in 2015-16. At the sectoral level,
agriculture, industry and services sectors grew at the rate of 4.9 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 7.7
per cent respectively in 2016-17 (Table 1).
The share of total final consumption in GDP at current prices in 2016-17 is estimated at 70.4 per
cent, as compared to 68.3 per cent in 2015-16. The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed
capital formation to GDP) declined from 29.3 per cent in 2015-16 to 27.1 per cent in 2016-17.
The saving rate (ratio of gross saving to GDP) for the year 2015-16 was 32.3 per cent, as
compared to 33.1 per cent in 2014-15. The investment rate (rate of gross capital formation to
GDP) in 2015-16 was 33.3 per cent, as compared to 34.4 per cent in 2014-15.
2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT
Rainfall: The cumulative South West Monsoon rainfall received for the country as a whole
during the period 1st June – 23rd July 2017, has been 3 per cent above normal. The actual
rainfall received during this period has been 387.8 mm as against the normal at 376.3 mm. Out
of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 2 subdivisions received large excess rainfall, 5
subdivisions received excess rainfall, 26 subdivisions received normal rainfall, and 3
subdivisions received deficient rainfall.
All India production of food grains: As per the 3rd Advance Estimates released by Ministry of
Agriculture & Farmers Welfare on 9th May 2017, production of foodgrains during 2016-17 is
estimated at 273.4 million tonnes as compared to 251.6 million tonnes in 2015-16 (Table 3).
Procurement of rice as on 3rd July 2017 was 38.6 million tonnes during kharif marketing season
2016-17 whereas procurement of wheat was 30.8 million tonnes during rabi marketing season
2017-18 (Table 4).
Off-take: Offtake of rice during the month of May 2017 was 28.4 lakh tonnes. This comprises
27.1 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA and 1.3 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of
wheat, the total offtake was 20.5 lakh tonnes comprising 20.1 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA
and 0.5 lakh tonnes under other schemes.The cumulative offtake of foodgrains during 2016-17
is 61.9 million tonnes (Table 5).
Stocks: Stocks of foodgrains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on 1st July 2017 was 58.7 million
tonnes, as compared to 54.8 million tonnes as on 1st July 2016 (Table 6).
3. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
The growth in overall IIP (with base 2011-12) was 1.7 per cent in May 2017, as compared to the
growth of 8.0 per cent in May 2016. The IIP growth during April-May 2017, was 2.3 per cent, as
compared to growth of 7.3 per cent during April-May 2016 (Table 7).
The manufacturing sector grew by 1.2 per cent in May 2017, as compared to the growth of 8.6
per cent in May 2016. During April-May 2017, manufactuirng sector grew by 1.8 per cent, as
compared to 7.1 per cent during the corresponding period of previous year.
2 In terms of use based classification, production of primary goods grew by 3.4 per cent,
intermediate goods by 0.7 per cent, infrastructure/construction goods by 0.1 per cent, and
consumer non-durables goods by 7.9 per cent respectively in May 2017.
The production of consumer durables contracted by 4.5 per cent in May 2017, as compared to a
growth of 14.7 per cent in May 2016.
Eight Core Industries
Production of eight core infrastructure industries grew by 3.6 per cent in May 2017, as
compared to 5.2 per cent in May 2016. During April-May 2017, the production in eight core
industries grew by 3.2 per cent, as compared to the growth of 6.9 per cent in corresponding
period of previous year (Table 8).
Coal production declined by 3.3 per cent in May 2017 as compared to a growth of 6.0 per cent in
May 2016.
The production of natural gas and steel increased by 4.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively
in May 2017. The production of refinery products and cement grew by 5.4 per cent and 1.8 per
cent respectively, whereas the production of fertiliser contracted by 6.5 per cent in May 2017.
Some Infrastructure Indicators
The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1,199 million at the end of April
2017 to 1,205 million at the end of May 2017. The overall tele-density in India stood at 93.6 per
hundred individuals at end May 2017; the urban tele-density was 172.3 and rural tele-density
was 57.6.
The traffic handled in major ports grew by 5.0 per cent to 167.3 million tonnes in April-June
2017 from 159.3 million tonnes in the corresponding period of previous year.
The addition to power generation capacity was about 150 MW during June 2017, as compared to
65 MW during June 2016.
The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 3,29,231 MW at the end of June 2017,
of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 67.0 per cent, 13.6 per
cent, 17.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively.
As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation declined marginally by 0.1 per
cent in June 2017. Growth of electricity generation was 3.7 per cent during April-June 2017.
34. FINANCIAL MARKETS
Money and Banking
Money Supply: Growth of Money Supply on YoY basis as on 23rd June, 2017 stood at 7.4 per
cent as compared to a growth rate of 10.3 per cent recorded in the corresponding period in the
previous year. As regards the components of money supply, the growth of ‘currency with the
public’ registered decline of 12.8 per cent as of 23rd June, 2017 against growth of 16.1 per cent
registered during the corresponding period a year ago. The growth rate of time deposits with
banks was 9.1 per cent as of 23rd June, 2017 as against 9.4 per cent recorded in the
corresponding period a year ago. On the other hand, demand deposits increased by 25.0 per cent
as of 23rd June 2017 as against 9.4 per cent during the same period last year. The details of
sources of money supply are given in the Table 9.
Growth of Deposits, Credit and Investments by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs):
Growth of aggregate deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) as on 23rd June 2017 was
11.1 per cent on YoY basis as compared to 9.1 per cent recorded during the corresponding date
of the previous year. In terms of bank credit, YoY growth was 6.0 per cent as of 23rd June 2017 as
against 9.0 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago. The YoY growth of investment in
Government and other approved securities by SCBs was 17.7 per cent as of 23rd June 2017 as
compared to 5.6 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The base lending rate as on 7th Jul, 2017 was 9.00/9.55 per cent as compared to 9.30/9.70 per
cent during the corresponding period a year ago. The term deposit rates for above one year was
6.25/6.90 per cent as of 7th July 2017 as against 7.00/7.50 per cent during the corresponding
period of the previous year.
5. EXTERNAL SECTOR
Foreign trade: The value of merchandise exports and imports increased by 4.4 per cent and
19.0 per cent respectively in US dollar terms in June 2017 over June 2016. During June
2017, the value of oil and non-oil imports increased by 12.0 per cent and 21.2 per cent
respectively over June 2016. (Table 10).
Balance of Payments Situation: India’s balance of payments situation has been benign and
comfortable since 2013-14 and this continued 2016-17. India’s current account deficit (CAD)
narrowed to US$ 15.3 billion (0.7 per cent of GDP) in 2016-17 as compared to US$ 22.1 billion
(1.1 per cent of GDP) in 2015-16 due to the contraction in the trade deficit. Net invisibles’
surplus at US$ 97.1 billion in 2016-17 was lower than US$ 107.9 billion in 2015-16. Net services
at US$ 67.5 billion in 2016-17 are lower than the level of US$ 69.7 billion in 2015-16. Net
capital/finance flows was US$ 36.8 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) in 2016-17 as against US$ 40.1
billion (1.9 per cent of GDP) in 2015-16.
Foreign Exchange Reserves: Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 386.6 billion as at end
June 2017, as compared to US$ 370 billion at end-March 2017.
Exchange rate: The rupee depreciated against the US dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen by 0.03 per
cent, 1.6 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively, while appreciated against Pound sterling by 0.8
per cent in June 2017 over May 2017 (Table 12).
External Debt: India’s external debt stood at US$ 471.9 billion at end-March 2017, recording a
decline of 2.7 per cent over the level at end-March 2016. Long-term debt was US$ 383.9 billion
at end-March 2017 as compared to US$ 401.6 billion at end-March 2016. Short-term external
debt was US$ 88.0 billion at end-March 2017, as compared to US$ 83.4 billion at end-March
2016.
4Exchange Rate Rupee per US Dollar
70.0
68.0
66.0
64.0
62.0
60.0
58.0
56.0
54.0
41-rpA 41-yaM 41-nuJ 41-luJ 41-guA 41-peS 41-tcO 41-voN 41-ceD 51-naJ 51-beF 51-raM 51-rpA 51-yaM 51-nuJ 51-luJ 51-guA 51-peS 51-tcO 51-voN 51-ceD 61-naJ 61-beF 61-raM 61-rpA 61-yaM 61-nuJ 61-luJ 61-guA 61-peS 61-tcO 61-voN 61-ceD 71-naJ 71-beF 71-raM 71-rpA 71-yaM 71-nuJ
India's Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billion)
400.0
380.0
360.0
340.0
320.0
300.0
280.0
41-rpA 41-yaM 41-nuJ 41-luJ 41-guA 41-peS 41-tcO 41-voN 41-ceD 51-naJ 51-beF 51-raM 51-rpA 51-yaM 51-nuJ 51-luJ 51-guA 51-peS 51-tcO 51-voN 51-ceD 61-naJ 61-beF 61-raM 61-rpA 61-yaM 61-nuJ 61-luJ 61-guA 61-peS 61-tcO 61-voN 61-ceD 71-naJ 71-beF 71-raM 71-rpA 71-yaM 71-nuJ
6. INFLATION
The Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPI): The all India CPI inflation (New Series-
Combined) decreased to 1.5 per cent in June 2017 from 2.2 per cent in May 2017. Food inflation
based on Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) declined to (-)2.1 per cent in June 2017 from (-)1.0
per cent in May 2017 on account decline in inflation in all sub-groups of CFPI except ‘meat &
fish’ and fruits. CPI fuel and light inflation decreased to 4.5 per cent in June 2017 from 5.5 per
cent in the previous month.
Inflation based on CPI-IW for May 2017 decreased to 1.1 per cent as compared to 2.2 per cent in
April 2017. Inflation based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL stood at 0.9 per cent and 1.1 per cent
respectively in June 2017. (Table 16).
Wholesale Price Index (WPI): The headline WPI inflation based on the revised series (2011-
12=100) declined to 0.9 per cent in June 2017 from 2.2 per cent in May 2017 mainly on account
of decline in food articles, non-food articles, fuel & power and food product inflation. WPI food
inflation (food articles + food products) declined to (-)1.2 per cent in June 2017 from 0.1 per
5cent in May 2017. Inflation in ‘fuel & power’ declined to 5.3 per cent in June 2017 from 11.7 per
cent in the previous month. Inflation for manufactured products declined to 2.3 per cent in June
2017 as compared to 2.6 per cent in previous month. Inflation for non-food manufactured
products (core) remained unchanged at 2.1 per cent in June 2017 as reported in the previous
month.
Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data): Food inflation based
on World Bank Food index declined to (-)7.1 per cent in June 2017 from (-)2.1 per cent in May
2017. Energy prices as measured by the World Bank energy index increased by 1.7 per cent
(YoY) and ‘metals & minerals’ increased by 19.0 per cent in June 2017 (Table 15).
Fig. 1: Inflation in WPI and CPI
9.0
7.0
5.0
)
%
3.0
(
n
o
it 1.0
a
lf
n
I -1.0
-3.0
-5.0
-7.0
WPI Headline WPI Food CPI Headline CPI Food (CFPI)
7. PUBLIC FINANCE
The budget estimate of the fiscal deficit for 2017-18 has been set at 3.2 per cent of GDP as
compared to 3.5 per cent in 2016-17(RE). The Budget estimate for revenue deficit as percentage
of GDP for 2017-18 is 1.9 per cent, as compared to 2.1per cent in 2016-17(RE).
The growth in provisional figures for April-May 2017 over April-May 2016 are as follows:
Gross tax revenue was Rs. 1,64,833 crore, recording a growth of 25 per cent.
Revenue receipts (net to Centre) increased by 26.4 per cent in April-May 2017 to Rs. 83,012 crore.
Tax revenue (net to Centre) increased to Rs. 67,668 crore, a growth of 36.2 per cent.
Non-tax revenue at Rs. 15,344 crore, decreased by 4.1 per cent.
Revenue expenditure increased by 53.5 per cent.
Capital expenditure increased by 58.1 per cent.
Total expenditure amounting Rs. 4,59,026 crore, increased by 54 per cent.
68. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN JUNE 2017
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved to (i) issue 13.9 crore fresh equity
shares of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) of Rs.10 each to the public on
book-building basis through the Intial Public Offering IPO. (ii) Issue shares to retail investors
and IREDA employees at a discount of 5% on the issue price of each equity share on book-
building basis, with cap of 0.5% on equity post issue for CPSE employees and the allocation to
retail investors in the net offer will not be less than 35%, as per the ICDR, 2009.However, the
number of shares proposed to be issued to employees and retail investors will be finalized in
consultation with the lead managers and as per the SEBI regulations. (iii) Conduct book building
process for the said IPO by MNRE / IREDA through Book Running Lead Manager (BRLM) as per
the guidelines of Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) and as per
guidance of the Inter-Ministerial Group.
The CCEA has approved for development of four laning from 'end of Pandoh Bypass to Takoli'
section of National Highway (NH)-21 in Himachal Pradesh.
The Union Cabinet approved the Interest Subvention Scheme for farmers for the year 2017-18.
This will help the farmers getting short term crop loan up to Rs. 3 lakh payable within one year
at only 4 per cent per annum.
The Union Cabinet approved the proposal to introduce a Financial Resolution and Deposit
Insurance Bill, 2017. The Bill would provide for a comprehensive resolution framework for
specified financial sector entities to deal with bankruptcy situation in banks, insurance
companies and financial sector entities.
The Asian Development Bank and the Government of India signed a $275 million loan on 19th
June, 2017 for improving urban services in 64 small towns in the State of Madhya Pradesh.
*****
7TABLES
Table 1: Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity at Constant (2011-12) Prices (in per
cent)
Sectors Growth Rate (%) Share in GVA or GDP (%)
2014- 2015- 2016- 2014- 2015- 2016-
15 16 17 15 16 17
PE PE
Agriculture, forestry & fishing -0.2 0.7 4.9 16.5 15.4 15.2
Industry 7.5 8.8 5.6 31.2 31.5 31.2
Mining & quarrying 11.7 10.5 1.8 3.0 3.1 3.0
Manufacturing 8.3 10.8 7.9 17.4 17.8 18.1
Electricity, gas, water supply & other 7.1 5.0 7.2 2.2 2.1 2.2
utility services
Construction 4.7 5.0 1.7 8.6 8.4 8.0
Services 9.7 9.7 7.7 52.2 53.1 53.7
Trade, Hotel, Transport Storage 9.0 10.5 7.8 18.5 19.0 19.2
Financial , real estate & prof services 11.1 10.8 5.7 21.4 21.9 21.7
Public Administration, defence and other 8.1 6.9 11.3 12.4 12.2 12.8
services
GVA at basic prices 7.2 7.9 6.6 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP 7.5 8.0 7.1 --- --- ---
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), PE: as per provisional estimates of GDP released on 31st May 2017.
Table 2: Quarter-wise Growth of GVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (per cent)
Sectors 2015-16 2016-17
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2.4 2.3 -2.1 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.9 5.2
Industry 7.3 7.1 10.3 10.3 7.4 5.9 6.2 3.1
Mining & quarrying 8.3 12.2 11.7 10.5 -0.9 -1.3 1.9 6.4
Manufacturing 8.2 9.3 13.2 12.7 10.7 7.7 8.2 5.3
Electricity, gas ,water supply & other utility
services 2.8 5.7 4.0 7.6 10.3 5.1 7.4 6.1
Construction 6.2 1.6 6.0 6.0 3.1 4.3 3.4 -3.7
Services 9.3 10.1 9.6 10.0 9.0 7.8 6.9 7.2
Trade, hotels, transport, communication and
services related to broadcasting 10.3 8.3 10.1 12.8 8.9 7.7 8.3 6.5
Financial, real estate & professional services 10.1 13.0 10.5 9.0 9.4 7.0 3.3 2.2
Public administration, defence and Other
Services 6.2 7.2 7.5 6.7 8.6 9.5 10.3 17.0
GVA at Basic Price 7.6 8.2 7.3 8.7 7.6 6.8 6.7 5.6
GDP at market prices 7.6 8.0 7.2 9.1 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.1
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO).
8Table 3: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (3rd Adv. Est.)
Crops Production (Million Tonnes)
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
(Final) (3rd AE)
Total Foodgrains 257.1 265.0 252.0 251.6 273.4
Rice 105.2 106.7 105.5 104.4 109.2
Wheat 93.5 95.9 86.5 92.3 97.4
Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 42.9 38.5 44.4
Total Pulses 18.3 19.3 17.2 16.4 22.4
Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 27.5 25.3 32.5
Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 362.3 348.4 306.0
Cotton# 34.2 35.9 34.8 30.0 32.6
Source: DES, DAC&FW, M/o Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. 3rd AE: 3rd Advance Estimates, # Million bales of 170 kgs. each.
Table 4 : Procurement of Crops (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2011-12 2012- 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
13
Rice# 35.0 34.0 31.8 32.0 34.2 38.6$ 0.0
Wheat@ 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0 28.1 23.0 30.8$
Total 63.3 72.2 56.9 60.2 62.3 61.6 30.8
# Kharif Marketing Season (October-September), @ Rabi Marketing Season (April-March), $ Position as on 03.07.2017
Source: FCI and DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution.
Table 5: Offtake of Foodgrains (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17(P) 2017-18 *
Rice 32.6 29.2 30.7 31.8 32.8 8.5
Wheat 33.2 30.6 25.2 31.8 29.1 5.7
Total 65.8 59.8 55.9 63.6 61.9 14.2
(Rice & Wheat)
Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution. P: Provisional, *: up to May 2017
Table 6: Stocks of Foodgrains (Million Tonnes)
Crops July 1, 2016 July 1, 2017
1. Rice 19.4 21.0
2. Unmilled Paddy# 7.8 8.1
3. Converted Unmilled Paddy in terms of 5.2 5.4
Rice
4. Wheat 30.2 32.3
Total (Rice & Wheat)(1+3+4) 54.8 58.7
# Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state agencies in terms of rice.
9Table 7: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production (Base 2011-12)
Industry Group April-May April-May May- 2016 May- 2017
2016-17 2017-18
General index 7.3 2.3 8.0 1.7
Mining 6.2 1.1 5.7 -0.9
Manufacturing 7.1 1.8 8.6 1.2
Electricity 10.1 7.1 6.1 8.7
Use based Classification
Primary goods 8.5 3.2 4.6 3.4
Capital goods 11.1 -3.4 13.9 -3.9
Intermediate goods 2.3 2.3 4.5 0.7
Infrastructure/construction goods 4.2 2.5 7.4 0.1
Consumer Durables 14.3 -5.0 14.7 -4.5
Consumer Non-durables 6.3 8.2 12.4 7.9
Source: CSO.
Table 8: Production growth (per cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries (Base: 2004-05)
Industry April-May April-May May -2016 May -2017
2016-17 2017-18
Coal -3.3 -3.3
2.1 6.0
Crude oil -2.8 0.1 -3.3 0.7
Natural Gas -6.7 3.3 -6.5 4.5
Refinery Products 10.5 2.8 3.3 5.4
Fertilizers 1.9 -0.8 6.2 -6.5
Steel 9.0 6.3 13.4 3.7
Cement 3.5 -0.3 2.7 1.8
Electricity 10.2 5.9 6.2 6.4
Overall growth 6.9 3.2 5.2 3.6
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, DIPP (Ministry of Commerce & Industry)
Table 9: Broad Money: Sources
(₹ Billion)
Outstanding as on
YoY Growth
Item
2017 2016 2017
Mar. 31 Jun. 23 % %
M3 1,28,443.9 128,094.5 10.3 7.4
Sources
Net Bank Credit to Government 38,690.9 41,074.8 12.4 14.0
Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 84,514.3 82,331.6 9.0 5.7
Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector 24,920.1 25,662.1 10.0 -1.0
Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public 250.9 250.9 13.0 11.0
Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 19,932.3 21,184.8 8.5 1.8
Source: Reserve Bank of India
10Table 10 : Exports and Imports (in US$ million)
2016 2017 2016-17 2017-18 % Change in
% Change in 2017-18(Apr-
May 2017 May) over
over May 2016-17
(Apr-May)
Item 2016-17 May 2016 (Apr-May)
Exports 276280 22572 23563 4.4 65312 72212 10.6
Imports 384319 30689 36522 19.0 84546 112263 32.8
Oil Imports 86896 7252 8126 12.0 18847 23177 23.0
Non-Oil Imports 297423 23436 28397 21.2 65699 89086 35.6
Trade Deficit -108039 -8116 -12960 - -19234 -40051 -
Source: Provisional data as per the Press Release of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Table 11: Foreign Exchange Reserves (in Billion)
End of Financial Year Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation
(Rupees ) (US Dollar) (Rupees ) (US Dollar )
At the end of year (Variation over last year)
2012-13 15884 292.0 823 -2.4
2013-14 18284 304.2 2400 12.2
2014-15 21376 341.6 3093 37.4
2015-16 23787 360.2 2411 18.6
2016-17 23982 370.0 195 9.8
At the end of month (Variation over last month)
January 2016 23586 349.6 370 -2.4
February 2016 23744 348.4 158 -1.2
March 2016 23787 360.2 44 11.8
April 2016 24040 363.0 253 2.9
May 2016 24174 361.6 134 -1.4
June 2016 24442 363.5 268 1.9
July 2016 24446 366.5 4 3.0
August 2016 24448 366.8 2 0.3
September 2016 24693 372.0 245 5.2
October 2016 24413 366.2 -280 -5.8
November 2016 24725 361.1 312 -5.1
December 2016 24376 358.9 -349 -2.2
January 2017 24601 363.0 224 4.1
Februay 2017 24300 364.3 -301 1.3
March 2017 23982 370.0 -318 5.7
2017-18
April 2017 23968 373.3 -14 3.4
May 2017* 24453 378.8 485 5.5
June 2017 25019 386.6 565 7.8
Source: RBI, *: As on 26th May, 2017.
11Table 12 :Rupee per unit of foreign currency*
Financial Year US dollar Pound sterling Euro Japanese yen
2012-13** 54.4099 86.1380 70.0693 0.6585
2013-14 60.5019 96.3058 81.1745 0.6040
2014-15 61.1436 98.5730 77.5210 0.5583
2015-16 65.4647 98.5730 72.2907 0.5459
2016-17 67.0731 87.6952 73.6141 0.6204
Monthly
May-2016 66.9067 97.2485 75.6919 0.6148
June-2016 67.2969 95.5533 75.5728 0.6389
July-2016 67.2076 88.5198 74.3591 0.6450
Auguest-2016 66.9396 87.7976 75.0042 0.6606
September-2016 66.7377 87.7152 74.8257 0.6549
October-2016 66.7481 82.5534 73.634 0.6438
November-2016 67.6381 84.0243 73.1418 0.6262
December-2016 67.9004 84.7352 71.598 0.5854
January-2017 68.0803 83.8615 72.3259 0.5918
February-2017 67.0755 83.8165 71.4646 0.5934
March-2017 65.8767 81.2450 70.3416 0.5830
April 2017 64.5071 81.5426 69.1656 0.5857
May 2017 64.4248 83.2101 71.2258 0.5745
June 2017 64.4430 82.5126 72.4139 0.5814
Source: Reserve Bank of India. * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis), ** Data from March, 2013 onwards are
based on RBI’s referencerate.
Table 13: Balance of Payments: (US$ billion)
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Merchandise exports 306.6 318.6 316.5 266.4 280.1
Merchandise imports 502.2 466.2 461.5 396.4 392.6
Trade balance -195.7 -147.6 -144.9 -130.1 -112.4
Net services 64.9 73.1 76.5 69.7 67.5
Income (net) -21.5 -23.0 -24.1 -24.4 -26.3
Net invisibles 107.5 115.3 118.1 107.9 97.1
Current Account Balance -88.2 -32.3 -26.9 -22.2 -15.3
Capital/Finance A/c
Foreign Invesment (net) 46.7 26.4 73.5 31.9 43.2
Portfolio (net) 26.9 4.8 42.2 -4.1 7.6
Capital Account Balance
92.0 47.8 88.3 40.1 36.8
(including errors & omission)
Overall Balance 3.8 15.5 61.4 17.9 21.6
Change in Reserves
(-indicates increase; + indicates decrease) -3.8 -15.5 -61.4 -17.9 -21.6
(on BOP basis)
Memo Items/Assumptions
Trade balance/GDP(%) -10.7 -8.0 -7.1 -6.2 -5.0
Current Account Balance/GDP (%) -4.8 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7
Net Capital Flows/GDP (%) 5.0 2.6 4.3 1.9 1.6
Source: Reserve Bank of India
12Table 14: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)*
Jun-16 2016-17 (April- Jun-17 2017-18 (April-
June) June)
External Assistance (Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 6,284.5 12,421.0 5,845.7 11,203.3
2) Repayments 4,323.5 6,785.4 4,169.8 6,623.1
3) Interest Payments 523.3 1,103.8 641.9 1,267.5
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 1,961.1 5,635.7 1,675.9 4,580.2
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 1,437.8 4,531.8 1,034.0 3,312.7
External Assistance (Non-Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 326.5 442.8 0.0 267.0
2) Repayments 1,490.5 1,829.9 112.0 469.6
3) Interest Payments 134.5 169.2 9.6 126.7
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -1,164.0 -1,387.1 -112.0 -202.6
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -1,298.5 -1,556.3 -121.6 -329.3
Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 23.6 129.5 261.7 285.6
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 23.6 129.5 261.7 285.6
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 23.6 129.5 261.7 285.6
Non-Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Grand Total
1) Gross Disbursements 6,634.6 12,993.3 6,107.4 11,755.8
2) Repayments 5,813.9 8,615.3 4,281.8 7,092.6
3) Interest Payments 657.7 1,273.0 651.5 1,394.2
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 820.7 4,378.0 1,825.6 4,663.2
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 163.0 3,105.0 1,174.1 3,268.9
*: Data are provisional. Source: Office of the Controller of Aid, Accounts and Audit, Ministry of Finance
Table 15: Year-on-Year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (in per cent)
June 2016 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017
Energy -22.2 31.4 13.7 1.7
Non-energy -1.9 4.0 2.8 -0.7
Agriculture 4.1 -0.7 -2.2 -6.5
Beverages -2.5 -7.4 -9.3 -12.8
Food 8.9 -0.1 -2.1 -7.1
Raw Materials -4.6 1.4 1.8 -1.3
Fertilizers -23.5 -7.7 -12.3 -8.9
Metals & Minerals -14.3 19.4 20.4 19.0
Precious Metals 7.5 3.2 -1.4 -1.5
Source: World Bank
13Table 16: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (in per cent)
CPI (NS-
WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL
Combined)
Base : 2011-12 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012
2014-15 1.2 6.3 6.6 6.9 5.9
2015-16 -3.7 5.6 4.4 4.6 4.9
2016-17 1.7 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5
Apr-16 -1.1 5.9 5.3 5.6 5.5
May-2016 -0.9 6.6 6.0 6.1 5.8
Jun-2016 -0.1 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.8
Jul-2016 0.6 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.1
Aug-2016 1.1 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.0
Sep-2016 1.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4
Oct-2016 1.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 4.2
Nov-2016 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.6
Dec-2016 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.4
Jan-2017 4.3 1.9 2.5 2.6 3.2
Feb-2017 5.5 2.6 3.1 2.9 3.7
Mar-2017 5.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.9
Apr-2017 3.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 3.0
May-2017 2.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.2
Jun-2017 0.9 - 1.1 0.9 1.5
Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI (New Series-Combined) inflation for last one month are provisional.
Source: Office of Economic Adviser- DIPP, Labour Bureau and Central Statistics Office.
Table 17: Fiscal Indicators- Rolling Targets as Percentage of GDP
(at current market prices)
Revised Budget Targets for
Estimates Estimates
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Gross Tax Revenue 11.3 11.3 11.6 11.9
Total outstanding liabilities at the end of 46.7 44.7 42.8 40.9
the year
Revenue Deficit 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4
Effective Revenue Deficit 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2
Fiscal Deficit 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.0
Notes:
1. “Total outstanding liabilities” include external public debt at current exchange rates. For projections, constant
exchange rates have been assumed. Liabilities do not include part of NSSF and total MSS liabilities which are not
used for Central Government deficit.
Source: Union Budget 2017-18
14Table 18: Trends in Central Government Finances : April-May 2017
Items Budget April-May Growth
Estimates 2016-17 ( 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18 (Per
2017-18 Rs.Crore) (Rs.Crore) (Per cent) cent)
( Rs. Crore)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (7)) (8)
1.Revenue Receipts 1515771 65691 83012 25.5 26.4
Gross tax revenue* 1911579 131858 164833 38.3 25.0
Tax (net to Centre) 1227014 49690 67668 149.8 36.2
Non Tax Revenue 288757 16001 15344 -50.7 -4.1
2.Capital Receipts 630964 232355 376014 10.4 61.8
of which
Recovery of loans 11932 390 398 63.9 2.1
Other Receipts 72500 2979 2255 85.3 -24.3
Borrowings and other liabilities 546532 228986 373361 9.8 63.0
3.Total Receipts (1+2) 2146735 298046 459026 13.4 54.0
4.Total Expenditure 2146735 298046 459026 13.4 54.0
(a)Revenue Expenditure 1836934 264815 406490 17.6 53.5
Of which Grants for creation of 195350 33863 42805 53.0 26.4
Capital Assets
Interest payments 523078 54714 69014 12.9 26.1
Major Subsidies 240339 45751 117215 -7.7 156.2
Pensions 131201 18870 36027 20.4 90.9
(b)Capital Expenditure 309801 33231 52536 -12.0 58.1
5.Revenue Deficit 321163 199124 323478 15.3 62.5
6.Effective Revenue Deficit (7-6(b)) 125813 165261 280673 9.7 69.8
7.Fiscal Deficit 546532 228986 373361 9.8 63.0
8.Primary Deficit 23454 174272 304347 8.8 74.6
Source: Controller Genral of Accounts, *: Gross Tax Revenue is prior to devolution to the States.
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