Monthly Economic Review March 2014

Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division 4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT MARCH 2014 HIGHLIGHTS  The growth of GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices (real GDP) for 2013-14 is placed at 4.9 per cent as compared to 4.5 per cent for 2012-13 (Advance Estimates released on 7th February, 2014). The GDP growth rate is placed at 4.4 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively in the first, second and third quarters of 2013-14.  Food grains (rice and wheat) stocks held by FCI and State agencies were 48.39 million tonnes as on March 1, 2014 vis-à-vis the buffer stock norm of 25 million tonnes as on January 1, 2014.  Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was (-) 1.9 per cent during February 2014 vis-à-vis 0.6 per cent in February 2013. During April- February 2013-14, IIP growth was (-) 0.1 per cent as compared to 0.9 per cent in April- February 2012-13.  Eight core infrastructure industries registered a growth of 4.5 per cent in February 2014 as compared to 1.3 per cent in February 2013. During April- February 2013-14, these sectors grew by 2.6 per cent as compared to 6.4 per cent during April- February 2012-13.  Broad money (M ) for 2013-14 (up to March 21, 2014) increased by 13.5 per cent as 3 compared to 13.8 per cent during the corresponding period of the last year. The year- on-year growth, as on March 21, 2014 was 13.5 per cent as compared to 13.8 per cent in the previous year.  Exports and imports declined by 3.2 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively, in US dollar terms, during March 2014 over March 2013.  Foreign Currency Assets stood at US$ 278.4 billion at end-March 2014 as compared to US$ 260.8 billion at end-March 2013.  The Rupee appreciated against the US dollar, Pound sterling, Japanese yen and Euro in the month of March 2014 over February 2014.  The WPI inflation for all commodities for the month of March 2014 increased to 5.70 per cent from 4.68 per cent in the previous month.  Gross tax revenue for the financial year 2013-14 (April-February) at Rs 892,007 crore, recorded a growth of 9.8 per cent over 2012-13.  As a proportion of revised estimate, fiscal deficit and revenue deficit during 2013-14 (April–February) was 114.3 per cent and 117.3 per cent respectively. (RANGEET GHOSH) Assistant Adviser (Rangeet.Ghosh@nic.in) 1ECONOMIC GROWTH As per the Advance Estimates of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05 prices) is estimated at 4.9 per cent in 2013-14 with agriculture, industry and services registering growth rates of 4.6 per cent, 0.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively. The GDP growth rate is placed at 4.4 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively in the first, second and third quarters of 2013-14. Table 1: Growth of GDP at factor cost by economic activity (at 2004-05 prices) Growth Percentage Share in GDP Sector 2011- 2012- 2013- 2011- 2012- 2013- 12 13(1R) 14(AE) 12 13(1R) 14(AE) 1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 5.0 1.4 4.6 14.6 14.4 13.9 2 Industry 7.8 1.0 0.7 27.9 28.2 27.3 a Mining & quarrying 0.1 -2.2 -1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 b Manufacturing 7.4 1.1 -0.2 16.2 16.3 15.8 c Electricity, gas & water supply 8.4 2.3 6.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 d Construction 10.8 1.1 1.7 7.6 7.9 7.7 3 Services 6.6 7.0 6.9 57.5 57.4 58.8 Trade, hotels, transport & a 4.3 5.1 3.5 27.3 26.7 26.9 Communication Financing ,insurance, real estate & b 11.3 10.9 11.2 17.3 18.0 19.1 business services c Community, social & personal services 4.9 5.3 7.4 12.9 12.7 12.8 4 GDP at factor cost 6.7 4.5 4.9 100 100 100 1R: 1st Revised Estimates; AE: Advance Estimates. Source: CSO. Table 2: Quarterly Growth Estimate of GDP (Year-on-year in per cent) 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Sector Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 6.5 4.0 5.9 3.4 1.8 1.8 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.6 3.6 2 Industry 10.1 8.2 6.9 6.3 0.3 -0.4 1.7 2.1 0.2 2.3 -0.7 a Mining & quarrying 0.3 -4.6 -1.9 5.8 -1.1 -0.1 -2.0 -4.8 -2.8 -0.4 -1.6 b Manufacturing 12.4 7.8 5.3 4.7 -1.1 0.0 2.5 3.0 -1.2 1.0 -1.9 c Electricity, gas & water supply 8.5 10.3 9.6 5.4 4.2 1.3 2.6 0.9 3.7 7.7 5.0 d Construction 8.9 11.9 12.2 10.2 2.8 -1.9 1.0 2.4 2.8 4.3 0.6 3 Services 6.7 7.0 6.5 6.1 7.2 7.6 6.9 6.3 6.7 6.0 7.6 Trade, hotels, transport & a 5.5 4.7 4.0 3.3 4.0 5.6 5.9 4.8 3.9 4.0 4.3 communication Financing , insurance, real estate b 11.3 12.0 11.1 11.0 11.7 10.6 10.2 11.2 8.9 10.0 12.5 & business services Community, social & personal c 2.4 5.4 5.7 5.7 7.6 7.4 4.0 2.8 9.4 4.2 7.0 services 4 GDP at factor cost 7.6 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.7 Source: CSO. 2Real GDP Growth rate (%) at Factor Cost from Q1 2005-06 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT Rainfall: With respect to rainfall situation in India, the year is categorized into four seasons: winter season (January-February); pre monsoon (March-May); south west monsoon (June- September) and post monsoon (October-December). South west monsoon accounts for more than 75 per cent of annual rainfall. The actual rainfall received during the period 01.03.2014 – 16.04.2014 has been 46.9 mm as against the normal at 49.0 mm. As per the Indian Meteorological Department’s stand on El Nino, as of 17.04.2014, there is no immediate acknowledgement of El- Nino phenomenon. All India production of foodgrains: As per the 2nd advance estimates released by Ministry of Agriculture on 14.02.2014, production of foodgrains during 2013-14 is estimated at 263.20 million tonnes compared to 257.13 million tonnes in 2012-13. Table 3A: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (in Million Tonnes) Crop 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 (2nd advance estimates) Rice 99.18 89.09 95.98 105.30 105.24 106.19 Wheat 80.68 80.80 86.87 94.88 93.51 95.60 Total Pulses 14.57 14.66 18.24 17.09 18.34 19.77 Total Foodgrains 234.47 218.11 244.49 259.29 257.13 263.20 Total Oilseeds 27.72 24.88 32.48 29.79 30.94 32.98 Sugarcane 285.03 292.30 342.38 361.04 341.20 345.92 Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 17.04.2014 was 26.95 million tonnes during 2013-14 and procurement of wheat as on 17.04.2014 was 3.99 million tonnes during 2014-15. 3Table 3B : Procurement in Million Tonnes 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014- 15 Rice 34.20 35.04 34.04 26.95# Wheat 22.51 28.34 38.15 25.09 3.99* Total 56.71 63.38 72.19 51.46 # Position as on 17.4.2014 * Position as on 17.4.2014. Off-take: Off-take of rice during the month of March, 2014 was 21.32 lakh tonnes and off-take of wheat was 17.18 lakh tonnes under TPDS (including NFSA). Stocks: Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on April 1, 2014 were 48.39 million tonnes, which is lower by 18.9 per cent compared to the level of 59.68 million tonnes as on April 1, 2013. Table 4: Off-take and stocks of food grains (Million Tonnes) Off-take Stocks 2011-12 2 0 1 2 - 1 3 2 0 1 3 - 1 4 Apr 1, Apr 1, (Up to Jan 1, 2013 2014# 2014) Rice 32.12 32.64 24.21 35.47 20.28 Unmilled Paddy 10.28 in terms of Rice Wheat 24.26 33.21 23.79 24.21 17.83 Total 56.38 65.85 48.00 59.68 48.39 Note: Buffer Norms for Rice and Wheat are 14.20 Million Tonnes and 7.00 Million Tonnes respectively as on 01.04.2014. # Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state agencies in terms of rice. 4INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Table 5: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production Industry Group April- April- February February February February 2013 2014 2012-13 2013-14 General index 0.9 -0.1 0.6 -1.9 Mining -2.3 -1.1 -7.7 1.4 Manufacturing 1.0 -0.7 2.1 -3.7 Electricity 4.0 6.2 -3.2 11.5 Basic goods 2.4 1.7 -1.8 3.9 Capital goods -7.7 -2.5 9.1 -17.4 Intermediate goods 1.5 3.2 -0.8 4.2 Consumer goods 2.5 -2.8 0.8 -4.5 Durables 2.7 -12.2 -2.6 -9.3 Non-durables 2.3 4.8 3.2 -1.2 Table 6: Production growth (per cent) in core infrastructure-supportive industries Industry April- February April-February February 2013 February 2014 2012-13 2013-14 Coal 5.0 0.9 -6.1 0.1 Crude oil -0.7 -0.1 -4.0 1.9 Natural Gas -14.2 -13.3 -20.1 -4.4 Refinery Products 29.4 1.6 22.9 3.2 Fertilizers -4.0 2.2 -4.0 -0.7 Steel 3.4 4.2 4.7 4.8 Cement 7.6 3.3 3.1 2.3 Electricity 4.1 5.7 -3.7 10.4 Overall growth 6.4 2.6 1.3 4.5 Year-on-Year Growth (%) of IIP 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 5MONEY AND BANKING Broad money (M ) for 2013-14 (up to March 21, 2014) increased by 13.5 per cent as compared 3 to 13.8 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year. The year-on-year growth, as on March 21, 2014 was 13.5 per cent vis-à-vis 13.8 per cent in the previous year. Table 7: Money Stock: Components and Sources (Rs. Billion) Item Outstanding as on Variation over 2013 2014 Financial Year so Year-on- far Year 2012- 2013- 2013 201 Mar. 31 Mar. 21 13 14 4 M3 83,820.2 95,130.5 13.8 13.5 13.8 13.5 1 Components 1.1 Currency with the Public 11,447.4 12,549.0 11.6 9.6 10.8 9.9 1.2 Demand Deposits with Banks 7,469.6 8,062.8 5.1 7.9 6.0 7.9 1.3 Time Deposits with Banks 64,870.9 74,501.7 15.3 14.8 15.4 14.8 1.4 ‘Other’ Deposits with Reserve 32.4 17.0 –46.6 –47.5 –3.5 12.8 Bank 2 Sources (2.1+2.2+2.3+2.4-2.5) 2.1 Net Bank Credit to Government 27,072.1 29,987.0 14.0 10.8 14.9 10.9 2.1.1 Reserve Bank 5,905.8 6,559.9 2.1.2 Other Banks 21,166.3 23,427.1 15.4 10.7 15.4 10.6 2.2 Bank Credit to Commercial 56,646.6 64,494.0 14.3 13.9 14.2 13.8 Sector 2.2.1 Reserve Bank 30.6 85.4 2.2.2 Other Banks 56,616.1 64,408.6 14.3 13.8 14.3 13.7 2.3 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of 16,366.6 18,909.2 6.2 15.5 6.9 15.3 Banking Sector 2.4 Government's Currency 153.4 171.7 14.1 11.9 14.1 11.9 Liabilities to the Public 2.5 Banking Sector's Net Non- 16,418.5 18,431.4 8.3 12.3 9.9 11.8 Monetary Liabilities 2.5.1 Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 6,925.0 8,716.4 15.5 25.9 17.9 24.9 of RBI Source: RBI Reserve money (M ) during the financial year 2013-14 (up to March 28, 2014) showed an 0 increase of 12.6 per cent as compared to increase of 9.2 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. The year-on-year variation revealed an increase of 9.5 per cent (up to March 28, 2014) compared to 8.5 per cent on the corresponding date of the previous year. An important source of reserve money, namely, net foreign exchange assets (NFA) of the RBI (up to March 28, 2014), showed an increase of 15.7 per cent compared to an increase of 5.9 per cent on the corresponding date of the last year. 6Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs): business in India During the financial year 2013-14 (up to March 21, 2014), bank credit registered a growth of 14.3 per cent year-on-year, as compared to 14.1 per cent during the corresponding period last year. Non-food credit during this period increased by 17.8 per cent compared to 8.5 per cent during the corresponding period last year. The aggregate deposits with Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) increased by 14.6 per cent (up to March 21, 2014), as compared to 14.2 per cent in the previous year. Table 8: Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India Items 2013-14 Financial year so Year-on-year far Outstanding as on 2012- 2013- 2013 2014 ( Rs. billion) 13 14 March 29, March 21, 2013 2014 Bank Credit 53902 60131 14.1 14.3 14.1 14.3 Non-Food credit 52928 59146 8.5 11.7 8.5 17.8 Aggregate deposits 67505 77394 14.2 14.6 14.2 14.6 Investments in 20061 22217 15.4 10.7 15.4 10.7 Government and other approved securities Source: RBI 7Table 9 : Policy Rates/Interest Rates (per cent per annum) Item / Week Ended 2013 2014 March 29 March 28 Cash Reserve Ratio (per 4.00 4.00 cent)(1) Bank Rate 8.50 9.00 Repo Rate 7.50 8.00 Reverse Repo Rate 6.50 7.00 Prime Lending Rate(2) 9.70 / 10.00 / 10.25 10.25 Deposit Rate(3) 7.50 / 9.00 8.00 / 9.25 Call Money Rate 8.65 8.59 (Weighted Average)(4) (1) Cash Reserve Ratio relates to Scheduled Commercial Banks (excluding Regional Rural Banks). (2) Prime Lending Rate relates to five major Banks. (3) Deposit Rate relates to major Banks for term deposits of more than one year maturity. (4) Data cover 90-95 per cent of total transactions reported by participants. Source: RBI. As on March 28, 2014, Bank Rate was 9.00 per cent as compared to 8.50 per cent on the corresponding date of last year. As on March 28, 2014, call money rate (weighted average) was 8.59 per cent as compared to 8.65 per cent on the corresponding date of last year. EXTERNAL SECTOR Foreign trade: Exports and imports declined by 3.2 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively, in US dollar terms, during March 2014 over March 2013. Oil imports increased by 17.7 per cent and non-oil imports decreased by 11.8 per cent over the same period. Table 10: Exports and Imports (in US$ million) Item 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 March % (Apr- (Apr- (Apr-Mar) (Apr-Mar) 2013 2014 Change Mar) Mar) in March 2014 Exports 251136 305964 300401 312355 30541 29578 -3.2 Imports 369769 489320 490737 450949 40948 40086 -2.1 Oil 105964 154968 164041 167625 13408 15784 17.7 iNmopno-Ortisl 263805 334352 326696 283324 27540 24302 -11.8 imTrpaodrets -118633 -183356 -190336 -138594 -10406 -10507 1.0 balance Source: Provisional data as per the Press Note of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. 8Table 11: Foreign Currency Assets Amount Variation Rs. Crore US$ million Rs. US$ million At the end of C r o r e (over last year) March, 2008 1196023 299230 359426 107306 March, 2009 1231340 241676 35317 -57554 March, 2010 1150778 254935 -80562 13259 March, 2011 1225999 274580 75221 19645 March, 2012 1333954 260742 107955 -13838 March, 2013 1418339 260775 84385 33 2013-14 (over last month) April 2013 1433397 264372 15058 3597 May 2013 1466378 259555 32981 -4817 June 2013 1524769 255407 58391 -4148 July 2013 1535910 251315 11141 -4092 August 2013 1653926 248433 118016 -2882 September 2013 1568148 249797 -85778 1364 October 2013 1564394 254746 -3754 4949 November 2013 1651502 264686 87108 9940 December 2013 1662880 268653 11378 3967 January 2014 1658880 265519 -4000 -3134 February 2014 1662611 267852 3731 2333 March 2014 1672942 278361 10331 10509 Source: RBI. Exchange rate: The rupee appreciated by 2.0 per cent against US dollar, 1.5 per cent against Pound sterling, 2.3 per cent against Japanese yen and 0.7 per cent against Euro in the month of March 2014 over February 2014. Table 12 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency* US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro March, 2009 51.2287 72.9041 0.5251 66.9207 March, 2010 45.4965 68.4360 0.5018 61.7653 March 2011 44.9684 72.7070 0.5498 62.9660 March, 2012 50.3213 79.6549 0.6103 66.4807 March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951 2013-14 April 2013 54.3757 83.2005 0.5571 70.7652 May 2013 55.0108 84.1087 0.5451 71.3803 June 2013 58.3973 90.4729 0.5999 77.0683 July 2013 59.7754 90.7757 0.6000 78.2026 August 2013 63.2088 97.8657 0.6457 84.1814 September 2013 63.7521 101.0967 0.6427 85.1190 October 2013 61.6156 99.2048 0.6300 84.1044 November 2013 62.6330 100.8780 0.6263 84.5334 December 2013 61.9101 101.3961 0.5983 84.8162 January 2014 62.0731 102.2687 0.5968 84.5621 February 2014 62.2540 102.9724 0.6102 84.9656 March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621 * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis). ** Data from March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate. 9Rupees per US$ (daily) 72 67 62 57 52 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 r p 2A 0-- r p 7A 1-- y a 2M 0-- y a 7M 1-- y a 1M 3-- n 4u 1J -- l 1u 0J -- l 6u 1J -- l 1u 3J -- g u 4A 1-- g u 0A 3-- p 3e 1S -- p 7e 2S -- t c 4O 1-- t c 9O 2-- v o 3N 1-- v o 8N 2-- c e 3D 1-- c e 1D 3-- n 5a 1J -- n 1a 3J -- b 4e 1F -- b 8e 2F -- r a 4M 1-- r a 8M 2-- External assistance and debt service payments: Gross external assistance during 2013-14 (April-March) stands at Rs. 33,659.97 crore as compared to Rs. 27,863.87 crore during the corresponding period of the previous year. Net disbursement stood at Rs. 12,110.79 crore during 2013-14 as compared to Rs. 9,236.41 crore during 2012-13 while net transfers were Rs. 7,748.90 crore during 2013-14 as compared to Rs. 4,663.43 crore during 2012-13. Table 13: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (Rs. Crore)* MARCH During the Financial MARCH During the Financial 2014 year 2013-2014 up to 2013 year March, 2014 2012-2013 up to March, 2013 External Assistance (Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 4,333.59 24,024.83 4,217.93 19,734.88 2) Repayments 1,713.24 18,124.30 1,383.27 16,107.59 3) Interest Payments 602.78 3,879.77 580.43 4,019.31 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 2,620.35 5,900.53 2,834.66 3,627.29 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 2,017.57 2,020.76 2,254.23 -392.02 External Assistance (Non-Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 616.82 6,319.98 558.52 5,759.18 2) Repayments 0.00 3,424.88 221.30 2,519.87 3) Interest Payments 0.00 482.12 26.78 553.67 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 616.82 2,895.10 337.22 3,239.31 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 616.82 2,412.98 310.44 2,685.64 Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 302.34 3,262.34 85.99 2,173.16 2) Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3) Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 302.34 3,262.34 85.99 2,173.16 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 302.34 3,262.34 85.99 2,173.16 Non Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 0.00 52.82 10.88 196.65 2) Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3) Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.00 52.82 10.88 196.65 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.00 52.82 10.88 196.65 Grand Total 1) Gross Disbursements 5,252.75 33,659.97 4,873.32 27,863.87 2) Repayments 1,713.24 21,549.18 1,604.57 18,627.46 3) Interest Payments 602.78 4,361.89 607.21 4,572.98 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 3,539.51 12,110.79 3,268.75 9,236.41 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 2,936.73 7,748.90 2,661.54 4,663.43 *: Data are provisional. 10INFLATION Wholesale Price Index (WPI 2004-05=100): The headline WPI inflation has increased to 5.70 per cent in March 2014 from 4.68 per cent in the previous month. Inflation for primary food articles for the month of March 2014 has increased to 9.90 per cent from 8.12 per cent in the previous month mainly on account of increase in inflation of moong, urad, vegetables, fruits, milk and fish. Accordingly, food inflation (primary food + manufactured food) increased to 7.09 per cent from 5.60 per cent in previous month. Inflation for fuel & power has increased to 11.22 per cent in March 2014 from 8.75 per cent in the last month. Inflation for manufactured products has increased to 3.23 per cent in March, 2014 from 2.76 per cent in February 2014. Non-food manufactured inflation (core as defined by RBI) has gone up to 3.51 per cent in March 2014 from 3.15 per cent in February 2014. The average WPI inflation rate for the last 12 months (April 2013 to March 2014) was 5.93 per cent as compared to 7.35 per cent during the corresponding period in 2012-13. WPI inflation rates for major groups are indicated in Table 14. Table 14: Current Price Situation based on Monthly WPI in March 2014 (Base: 2004-05=100) Major groups Weight Inflation (%) Inflation (%) (%) in (Average of 12 WPI months) 2013- 2012- 2013-14 2012- 14 13 13 ALL COMMODITIES 100.00 5.70 5.65 5.93 7.35 PRIMARY ARTICLES 20.12 7.66 7.36 9.87 9.81 Food articles 14.34 9.90 8.63 12.80 9.90 FUEL AND POWER 14.91 11.22 7.76 10.11 10.33 MANUFACTURED PDT. 64.97 3.23 4.28 2.90 5.41 Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPIs): The all India CPI inflation (combined) increased to 8.31 per cent in March 2014 from 8.03 per cent in February 2014 mainly on account of vegetables, fruits, pulses, milk, spices, and egg, fish & meat. Inflation based on CPI-IW declined to 6.73 per cent in February 2014 from 7.24 per cent in January 2014. Inflation based on CPI-AL & CPI-RL increased to 8.38 per cent and 8.51 per cent respectively in March 2014 from 8.14 per cent and 8.27 per cent respectively in February 2014. Table 15: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI (per cent) WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI(NS) Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2010 Mar-13 5.65 11.44 12.64 12.62 10.39 Apr-13 4.77 10.24 12.32 12.15 9.39 May- 13 4.58 10.68 12.70 12.50 9.31 June-13 5.16 11.06 12.85 12.65 9.87 July-13 5.85 10.85 12.80 12.61 9.64 Aug-13 6.99 10.75 13.21 12.89 9.52 Sep-13 7.05 10.70 12.78 12.44 9.84 Oct-13 7.24 11.06 12.65 12.48 10.17 Nov-13 7.52 11.47 13.43 13.27 11.16 Dec-13 6.40 9.13 11.19 11.18 9.87 Jan-14 5.17 7.24 9.08 9.21 8.79 Feb-14 4.68 6.73 8.14 8.27 8.03 Mar-14 5.70 - 8.38 8.51 8.31 Note: WPI inflation for Feb & Mar-14 and CPI (New Series) inflation for Mar-14 is provisional. 11Table 16: World Commodity Price Data Annual averages Monthly averages Commodity Unit Jan- Dec Jan- Dec Jan- Mar Jan Feb Mar 2012 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 Coal, Australia $/mt 96.4 84.6 77.1 81.6 76.3 73.3 Crude oil, average $/bbl 105.0 104.1 103.7 102.1 104.8 104.0 Natural gas, US $/mmbtu 2.8 3.7 5.2 4.2 6.0 4.9 Cocoa $/kg 2.4 2.4 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 Coffee, Robusta $/kg 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 Tea, auctions avg. $/kg 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.5 Coconut oil $/mt 1111 941 1152 1270 1365 820 Groundnut oil $/mt 2436 1773 1546 1410 1303 1924 Palm oil $/mt 999.3 856.9 875.7 865.0 908.0 854.0 Palm kernel oil $/mt 1110 897 1095 1160 1292 833 Soybean meal $/mt 524.1 545.3 560.3 567.0 594.0 520.0 Soybean oil $/mt 1226 1057 1015 943 985 1116 Soybeans $/mt 591.4 538.4 556.0 566.0 591.0 511.0 Maize $/mt 298.4 259.4 209.9 198.1 209.3 222.3 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 563.0 505.9 443.7 450.0 459.0 422.0 Wheat, US, HRW $/mt 313.2 312.2 297.1 275.5 292.3 323.6 Bananas, US $/mt 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Oranges $/mt 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 Fishmeal $/mt 1558 1747 1633 1531 1564 1803 Meat, chicken $/kg 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Meat, beef $/kg 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.4 Sugar, world $/kg 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 Plywood $/sheets 610.3 560.2 531.5 525.7 535.3 533.6 Cotton A Index $/kg 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 Rubber, TSR20 $/kg 3.2 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 DAP $/mt 539.8 444.9 476.1 438.3 490.6 499.4 Urea $/mt 405.4 340.1 337.5 352.6 344.1 315.8 Copper $/mt 7962 7332 7030 7291 7149 6650 Lead $/mt 2064.6 2139.8 2101.4 2143 2108 2053 Tin $/mt 21126 22283 22636 22064 22821 23024 Nickel $/mt 17548 15032 14661 14101 14204 15678 Zinc $/mt 1950.4 1910.3 2026.5 2036.9 2034.5 2007.9 Gold $/toz 1670 1411 1293 1244 1300 1336 Silver $/toz 31 24 20 20 21 21 Iron ore $/dmt 128.5 135.4 120.4 128.1 121.4 111.8 Source: World Bank – The Pink Sheet. 12PUBLIC FINANCE As a proportion of revised estimate, fiscal deficit and revenue deficit during 2013-14 (April–February) was 114.3 per cent and 117.3 per cent respectively. Table 17: Trends in Central Government Finances: April-February 2014 (Rs. Crore) Revised April-February Col.3 as Col.4 as Per cent change Estimates per cent of per cent of over preceding year 2013-14 2012-13 2013-14 2012-13 2013-14 2012-13 2013-14 RE RE (4/3) 1.Revenue Receipts 1029252 678828 783595 77.9 76.1 14.5 15.4 Gross tax revenue* 1158905 812616 892007 78.3 77.0 15.5 9.8 Tax (net to Centre) 836026 571932 627134 77.1 75.0 15.9 9.7 Non Tax Revenue 193226 106896 156461 82.4 81.0 7.6 46.4 2.Capital Receipts 561182 540711 616162 96.7 109.8 5.2 14.0 of which Recovery of loans 10802 10555 10576 75.0 97.9 -40.4 0.2 Other Receipts 25841 22797 6287 95.0 24.3 731.1 -72.4 Borrowings and other 524539 507359 599299 97.4 114.3 2.8 18.1 liabilities 3.Total Receipts (1+2) 1590434 1219539 1399757 85.2 88.0 10.2 14.8 4.Non-Plan Expenditure 1 1 1 4 9 0 3 8 6 6 5 1 8 9 9 0 823 86.5 88.9 11.3 14.3 (a)+(b) (a) Revenue Account 1027689 787149 899602 85.6 87.5 12.9 14.3 of which: Interest payments 380066 263852 321844 83.3 84.7 11.8 22.0 Major Subsidies 245451 207781 218347 83.8 89.0 64.9 5.1 Pensions 74076 59396 67072 93.0 90.5 14.6 12.9 (b) Capital Account 87214 79369 91221 96.9 104.6 -2.9 14.9 5.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 475532 353021 408934 82.3 86.0 7.5 15.8 (i) Revenue Account 371851 287791 318371 83.8 85.6 3.7 10.6 (ii) Capital Account 103681 65230 90563 76.0 87.3 28.3 38.8 6.Total Expenditure 1590435 1219539 1399757 85.2 88.0 10.2 14.8 (4)+(5)=(a)+(b) (a)Revenue Expenditure 1399540 1074940 1217973 85.1 87.0 10.3 13.3 (b)Of which Grants for 121283 92498 116412 74.4 96.0 -10.8 25.9 creation of Capital Assets (c)Capital Expenditure 190895 144599 181784 86.2 95.2 9.1 25.7 7.Revenue Deficit 370288 396112 434378 101.2 117.3 3.8 9.7 8.Effective Revenue Deficit 249005 303614 317966 113.7 127.7 9.3 4.7 (7-6(b)) 9.Fiscal Deficit 524540 507359 599299 97.4 114.3 2.8 18.1 10.Primary Deficit 144474 243507 277455 119.2 192.0 -5.5 13.9 Source: CGA, *Gross Tax Revenue is prior to devolution to the States. 13