See Full Document Text
Ministry of Finance
Department of Economic Affairs
Economic Division
4(8)/Ec. Dn. /2017
MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT
MARCH 2018
*****
HIGHLIGHTS
The growth of GDP at constant prices for third quarter of 2017-18 was 7.2 per cent, which was higher as
compared to the growth registered in previous four quarters.
The growth of GDP at constant prices for the year 2017-18 is estimated to be 6.6 per cent, as compared to
7.1 per cent in 2016-17.
The production of food-grains during 2017-18 is estimated at 277.5 million tonnes (second advance estimate),
as compared to 275.1 million tonnes in 2016-17 (final estimate). The total stocks of rice and wheat held by
FCI as on 1st March 2018 was 47.9 million tonnes, as compared to 40.7 million tonnes as on 1st March
2017.
IIP grew by 7.1 per cent in February 2018, as compared to a growth of 1.2 per cent in February 2017. IIP
growth during April- February 2017-18 was 4.3 per cent, as compared to growth of 4.7 per cent during
April- February 2016-17.
Production of Eight Core industries grew by 5.3 per cent in February 2018, as compared to 0.6 per cent in
February 2017.
Growth of money supply (on year on year basis) as of 30th March 2018 stood at 9.6 per cent, as compared to
a growth of 6.9 per cent recorded in the corresponding period in the previous year.
The value of merchandise exports and imports increased by 0.7 per cent and 7.1 per cent respectively in US$
terms in March 2018 over March 2017.
Foreign Exchange Reserves stood at US$ 424.4 billion as on 30th March 2018.
The CPI inflation decreased to 4.3 per cent in March 2018 from 4.4 per cent in February 2018. The WPI
inflation remained unchanged at 2.5 per cent in March 2018 as reported in the previous month.
The budget estimate of the fiscal deficit for 2018-19 has been set at 3.3 per cent of GDP, as compared to 3.5
per cent in 2017-18(RE).
_________________________________
This report is based on the information received from Macro unit, Agriculture unit, Industry & Infrastructure unit,
Money & Banking unit, Price unit, Trade & BOP unit, EDMU, Public Finance unit of the Economic Division and Aid,
Accounts and Audit Division. The Report is prepared by Shri Pradyut Kumar Pyne, Shri Narendra Jena (Economic
Officer), and Ms. Aakanksha Arora (Deputy Director) under the supervision of Shri Arvinder Singh Sachdeva (Senior
Economic Adviser).
11. ECONOMIC GROWTH
The second advance estimates (2nd AE) of national income released by Central Statistics Office (CSO)
on 28th February 2018, estimated the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant market
prices for the year 2017-18 to be 6.6 per cent (Figure 1 and Table 1).
The growth rate of GDP at constant
market prices was 7.1 per cent (first
revised estimate) in 2016-17 and 8.2 per
cent in 2015-16 (second revised
estimate).
The growth in Gross Value Added
(GVA) at constant basic prices for the
year 2017-18 is estimated to be 6.4 per
cent (2nd AE). At the sectoral level,
agriculture, industry and services sectors
grew at the rate of 3.0 per cent, 4.8 per
cent and 8.3 per cent respectively in
2017-18.
As per the quarterly estimates, the
growth of GDP at constant prices for
third quarter (October-December) of
2017-18 was 7.2 per cent, as compared
to the growth of 6.8 per cent recorded in
the corresponding quarter of the
previous year.
The upswing in quarterly growth, which
started in the second quarter of 2017-18,
sustained with an even higher growth in
third quarter (Figure 2 and Table 2).
The share of total final consumption in GDP at current prices in 2017-18 is estimated to be at 70.2
per cent, as compared to 69.9 per cent in 2016-17. The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed
capital formation to GDP) is estimated to be at 28.5 per cent in 2017-18, same as in previous two
years.
The saving rate (measured as a share of gross saving to GDP) for the year 2016-17 was 30.0 per cent,
as compared to 31.3 per cent in 2015-16. The investment rate (measured as a share of gross capital
formation to GDP) was 30.6 per cent in 2016-17, as compared to 32.3 per cent in 2015-16.
2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT
Rainfall: The cumulative rainfall received for the country as a whole, during the period 1st March
2018 to 11th April 2018, has been 31 per cent below normal. The actual rainfall received during this
period has been 29.9 mm, as against the normal at 43.3 mm. Out of the total 36 meteorological
subdivisions, 8 subdivisions received large excess rainfall, 1 subdivision received excess rainfall, 6
subdivisions received normal rainfall, 13 subdivisions received deficient rainfall, 6 subdivisions
received large deficient rainfall and 2 subdivisions received no rain at all.
2 All India production of food-grains: As per the 2nd AE released by Ministry of Agriculture &
Farmers’ Welfare on 27th February 2018, the production of food-grains during 2017-18 is estimated at
277.5 million tonnes, as compared to 275.1 million tonnes in 2016-17 (Final Estimate) (Table 3).
Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 1st March 2018, during kharif marketing season 2017-18
was 30.1 million tonnes, whereas procurement of wheat during rabi marketing season 2017-18 was
30.8 million tonnes (Table 4).
Offtake: The offtake of rice in all schemes during the month of January 2018 has been 27.7 lakh
tonnes. This comprises 25.8 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the
month of February 2018) and 2 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total
offtake has been 20.8 lakh tonnes comprising of 18.4 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake
against the allocation for the month of February 2018) and 2.4 lakh tonnes under other schemes. The
cumulative offtake of food-grains during 2017-18 is 54.1 million tonnes (Table 5).
Stocks: The total stocks of rice and wheat held by FCI as on 1st March 2018 was 47.9 million tonnes,
as compared to 40.7 million tonnes as on 1st March 2017 (Table 6).
3. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
The general IIP grew by 7.1 per cent in February 2018, as compared to a growth of 1.2 per cent in
February 2017. The cumulative growth of IIP for the period April- February 2017-18 was 4.3 per
cent, as compared to a growth of 4.7 per cent during the corresponding period of previous year
(Table 7).
The growth of production of the
manufacturing sector was 8.7 per cent in
February 2018, as compared to the
growth of only 0.7 per cent in February
2017 (Figure 3). The manufacturing
sector’s growth during April- February
2017-18 was 4.6 per cent, as compared
to growth of 4.4 per cent during April-
February 2016-17.
Growth of the manufacturing sector has
been strong during the period
November 2017 to February 2018.
The average growth of manufacturing production during November-February 2017-18 was 9.1 per
cent as compared to the growth of 2.0 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year.
The production of the mining sector contracted by 0.3 per cent in February 2018, as compared to a
growth of 4.6 per cent in February 2017. During April- February 2017-18, production of this sector
grew by 2.3 per cent, as compared to a growth of 4.8 per cent during same period of previous year.
In terms of use based classification, all sectors, namely, primary goods, capital goods, intermediate
goods, infrastructure/construction goods, consumer durable goods and consumer non-durable goods
have registered positive growth. Notably, the output of the capital goods sector, a proxy for the
investment activity of the economy grew by 20 per cent in February 2018, a 27 months high.
3Performance of Eight Core Industries
Production of eight core infrastructure industries grew by 5.3 per cent in February 2018, as compared
to 0.6 per cent in February 2017. On cumulative basis, during April-February 2017-18, the production
of eight core industries grew by 4.3 per cent, as compared to the growth of 4.7 per cent in the
corresponding period of previous year (Table 8).
The growth in cement production has
rebounded since November 2017.
Production of the sector grew by 22.9
per cent in February 2018, as compared
to a contraction of 15.8 per cent in
February 2017 (Figure 4). During April-
February 2017-18, cement production
grew by 5.7 per cent, as compared to a
growth of (-) 0.6 per cent during the
same period of the previous year.
Production of the steel sector increased
by 5.0 per cent in February 2018, as
compared to an increase of 8.7 per cent
in February 2017.
Coal production grew by 1.4 per cent in February 2018, as compared to a growth of 6.6 per cent in
February 2017. Crude oil and natural gas production contracted in February 2018 by 2.4 per cent and
1.5 per cent respectively.
Growth of production of petroleum refinery products was 7.8 per cent in February 2018, as
compared to a contraction of 2.8 per cent in February 2017. Production of fertilizers grew by 5.3 per
cent in February 2018, as compared to a contraction of 4.0 per cent in February 2017.
Some Infrastructure Indicators
The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1175 million at the end of January 2018
to 1180 million at end February 2018. The overall tele-density in India stood at 90.9 per hundred
individuals at end February 2018; the urban tele-density was 163.2 and rural tele-density was 57.5.
The traffic handled in major ports grew by 4.8 per cent to 679.4 million tonnes in 2017-18, from
648.4 million tonnes in the corresponding period of previous year.
The addition to power generation capacity was about 9,505 MW during April-March 2017-18, as
compared to 14,209 MW during the previous year.
The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 3,44,002 MW at the end of March 2018, of
which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 64.8 per cent, 13.2 per cent,
20.1 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively.
As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation grew by 3.1 per cent in March 2018.
The electricity generation grew by of 4.0 per cent in 2017-18.
44. FINANCIAL MARKETS
Money and Banking
Money Supply: Growth of money supply on year on year (Y-o-Y) basis as of 30th March 2018 stood
at 9.6 per cent, as compared to a growth of 6.9 per cent recorded in the corresponding period in the
previous year. As regards the components of money supply, the growth of ‘currency with the public’
was 39.2 per cent as of 30th March 2018, as compared to the growth of (-) 20.8 per cent registered
during the corresponding period a year ago. The growth rate of ‘time deposits with banks’ was 6.2 per
cent as of 30th March 2018, as compared to the growth of 10.2 per cent in recorded in the
corresponding period a year ago. On the other hand, ‘demand deposits’ grew by 6.8 per cent as of 30th
March 2018, as compared to the growth of 18.4 per cent during the same period last year. The details
of sources of money supply are given in Table 9.
Growth of Aggregate deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) as of 30th March 2018
was 6.7 per cent (on Y-o-Y basis), as compared to 11.3 per cent recorded during the corresponding
date of the previous year. In terms of bank credit, growth was 10.3 per cent as of 30th March 2018, as
compared to 4.5 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago. The growth of investment in
Government and other approved securities by SCBs was 10.0 per cent as of 30th March 2018, as
compared to 17.4 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Lending and deposit rates: The base lending rate as of 6th April 2018 was 8.70/9.45 per cent as
compared to 9.10/9.60 per cent during the corresponding period a year ago. The term deposit rates
for above one year was 6.25/6.75 per cent as of 6th April 2018, as compared to 6.50/7.00 per cent
during the corresponding period a year ago.
5. EXTERNAL SECTOR
Merchandise Trade
Foreign trade: The value of merchandise exports and imports increased by 0.7 per cent and 7.1 per
cent respectively in US$ terms in March 2018 over March 2017. During March 2018, oil imports and
non-oil imports increased by 13.9 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively over March 2017 (Table 10).
During 2017-18, the value of
merchandise exports and imports
increased by 9.8 per cent and 19.6 per
cent respectively (Figure 5). Oil imports
and non-oil imports increased by 25.5
per cent and 17.9 per cent respectively in
2017-18.
The value of merchandise trade deficit in
March 2018 was US$ 13.7 billion, as
compared to the level of US$ 10.7
billion in March 2017. During 2017-18,
merchandise trade deficit increased to
US$ 156.8 billion, as compared to US$
108.5 billion in 2016-17.
5India’s Balance of Payments:
India’s current account deficit (CAD) was US$ 13.5 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in third quarter
(October –December) of 2017-18, as compared to US$ 8.0 billion (1.4 per cent of GDP) in the
corresponding quarter of 2016 -17 (Figure 6). On cumulative basis, CAD stood at US$ 35.6 billion
(1.9 per cent of GDP) during April-December of 2017-18, as compared to US$ 11.8 billion (0.7 per
cent of GDP) during the corresponding period of 2016 -17 (Table 11).
During April-December 2017, the net
invisibles balance (invisible receipts
minus invisible payments) was US$ 83.2
billion, as compared to US$ 71.0 billion
in the corresponding period of the
previous year.
Net FDI inflows during April-December
2017 moderated to US$ 23.7 billion
from US$ 30.6 billion during the
corresponding period of the previous
year. Portfolio investment recorded a net
inflow of US$ 19.8 billion during April-
December 2017 as against a net outflow
of US$ 3.2 billion in the corresponding
period a year ago.
Foreign Exchange Reserves: Foreign
Exchange Reserves stood at US$ 424.4
billion as on 30th March 2018, as
compared to US$ 370.0 billion at end-
March 2017 (Table 12 and Figure 7).
In 2017-18 (till 30th March 2018), there
was an accretion of US$ 54.4 billion to
the foreign exchange reserves (Table 12).
Note: RTP: Reserve Tranche Position, SDRs: Special Drawing Rights
Exchange Rate:
The rupee depreciated against the US
dollar, Pound sterling, Euro and
Japanese Yen by 1.0 per cent, 0.8 per
cent, 0.9 per cent and 2.8 per cent
respectively in March 2018 over
February 2018 (Table 13 and Figure 8).
However, during 2017-18, the rupee
6appreciated vis-à-vis US$ by 4.1 per
cent.
External Debt:
India’s external debt stood at US$ 513.4
billion at end-December 2017, recording
an increase of 8.8 per cent over the level
at end-March 2017. Long-term debt was
US$ 415.8 billion at end-December 2017
as compared to US$ 383.7 billion at end-
March 2017. Short-term external debt
was US$ 97.6 billion at end-December
2017, as compared to US$ 88.1 billion at
end-March 2017 (Figure 9).
6. INFLATION
Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPIs):
The all India Consumer Price Index – Combined (CPI-C) inflation declined to 4.3 per cent in March
2018 from 4.4 per cent in February 2018. Food inflation based on Consumer Food Price Index
(CFPI) decreased to 2.8 per cent in March 2018 from 3.3 per cent in February 2018, on account of
fall in inflation in meat & fish, egg, milk & products, vegetables and sugar & confectionery. CPI Fuel
and light inflation for March 2018 declined to 5.7 per cent as compared to 6.9 per cent in February
2018.
Headline inflation based on Consumer Price Index (Combined) for 2017-18 averaged 3.6 per cent
(provisional), as compared to 4.5 per cent in 2016-17 and 4.9 per cent in 2015-16.
Inflation based on CPI-IW for February 2018 decreased to 4.7 per cent from 5.1 per cent in January
2018. Inflation based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL stood at 2.3 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively in
February 2018 (Table 15).
Inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI):
The WPI inflation remained same at
2.5 per cent in March 2018, as reported
in the previous month. WPI food
inflation (food articles + food
products) decreased to (-) 0.1 per cent
in March 2018 from to 0.1 per cent in
February 2018.
Inflation in Fuel & power increased to
4.7 per cent in March 2018, as
compared to 3.8 per cent in February
2018.
Inflation for manufactured products
was 3.0 per cent in March 2018, which
was the same as in February 2018.
7 Inflation for Non-food manufactured products (core) decreased to 3.5 per cent in March 2018, as
compared to 3.9 per cent in February 2018.
The average WPI inflation stood at 2.9 per cent (provisional) in 2017-18, as compared to 1.7 per cent
in 2016-17.
Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data)
Food inflation based on World Bank Food index stood at 2.1 per cent in March 2018, as compared to
(-)1.8 per cent in February 2018. Energy prices as measured by the World Bank energy index
increased by 23.9 per cent (Y-o-Y) and ‘metals & minerals’ decreased by 9.2 per cent in March 2018
(Table 16).
7. PUBLIC FINANCE
The Union Budget 2018-19 was
presented on 1st February 2018. As per
the revised estimate for 2017-18, the
fiscal deficit of the Central Government
as percentage of GDP is 3.5 per cent, as
against the corresponding budget
estimate of 3.2 per cent. The fiscal
deficit is budgeted to decline to 3.3 per
cent of GDP in 2018-19 (Figure 11).
The Budget estimates for revenue
deficit, as percentage of GDP at current
market price for 2018-19 is 2.2 per cent,
as compared to 2.6 per cent in 2017-
18(RE).
The growth in provisional figures for 2017-18 (April-February) over 2016-17 are as follows:
o Gross tax revenue for the financial year 2017-18 (April- February) was ` 15,68,391 crore,
recorded a growth of 15.8 per cent over 2016-17.
o Revenue Receipts (net to Centre) increased by 7.6 per cent in 2017-18 (April- February) to `
11,77,678 crore.
o Tax revenue (net to Centre) increased to ` 1,05,546 crore, a growth of 17.0 per cent over
2016-17.
o Non-tax revenue of ` 1,42,132 crore, decreased by 32.0 per cent.
o Revenue expenditure increased by 10.7 per cent.
o Capital expenditure increased by 38.3 per cent.
o Total expenditure amounting ` 19,99,171 crore, increased by 14.0 per cent.
8. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN MARCH 2018
The Union Cabinet approved the proposal for establishment of National Financial Reporting
Authority (NFRA). The establishment of NFRA as an independent regulator for the auditing
profession is one of the key changes brought in by the Companies Act 2013.
8 The Union Cabinet approved the proposal of the Ministry of Finance to introduce the Fugitive
Economic Offenders Bill, 2018 in Parliament. The Bill would help in laying down measures to deter
economic offenders from evading the process of Indian law by remaining outside the jurisdiction of
Indian courts.
The Union Cabinet approved two key measures in telecom sector to facilitate investments,
consolidation in the sector and enhancing ease of doing business. These include restructuring
the deferred payment liabilities of spectrum auction of telecom service providers and revising the limit
of the cap for spectrum holding for telecom service providers.
The Union Cabinet approved the continuation of Swatantra Sainik Samman Yojana during 2017-2020
beyond the 12th Five Year Plan which ended on 31st March 2017. It provides for a monthly Samman
Pension to freedom fighters, as a token of respect for their contribution in the national freedom
struggle and on their demise, to their eligible dependents viz. spouses and thereafter, unmarried and
unemployed daughters and dependent parents, as per prescribed eligibility norms and procedure.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved for promotion of Agricultural
Mechanization for in-situ Management of crop residue in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and NCT
of Delhi.
The Union Cabinet approved an Agreement for the Avoidance of Double Taxation and the
Prevention of Fiscal Evasion with respect to taxes on income between India and Iran.
The CCEA approved to continue Urea Subsidy Scheme up to 2019-20 of Department of Fertilizers at
a total estimated cost of ` 1,64,935 crore.
The Union Cabinet approved the North East Industrial Development Scheme (NEIDS), 2017 with
financial outlay of ` 3,000 crores up to March 2020. NEIDS is a combination of the incentives to
promote industrialization and to boost employment and income generation in the States of the North
Eastern Region.
The Union Cabinet approved for the continuation of the National Health Mission – with effect from
1st April 2017 to 31st March 2020 with a budgetary support of ` 85,217 crore as Central Share for this
period.
The Union Cabinet approved the launch of a new Centrally Sponsored Ayushman Bharat -National
Health Protection Mission having central sector component under Ayushman Bharat Mission
anchored in the MoHFW. The scheme has the benefit cover of ` 5 lakh per family per year. The
target beneficiaries of the proposed scheme will be more than 10 crore families belonging to poor and
vulnerable population based on Socio-Economic Caste Census database.
The Union Cabinet approved for restructuring of National Skill Development Fund and National
Skill Development Corporation to strengthen governance, implementation and monitoring
framework.
*****
9TABLES
Table 1 : Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity at Constant (2011-12) Prices (per cent)
Sectors Growth Rate (%) Share in GVA (%)
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2nd RE 1st RE 2nd AE 1st RE 2nd AE
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 0.6 6.3 3.0 15.4 15.3 14.8
Industry 9.8 6.8 4.8 31.6 31.5 31.0
Mining & quarrying 13.8 13.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.2
Manufacturing 12.8 7.9 5.1 18.1 18.2 18.0
Electricity, gas, water supply & other 4.7 9.2 7.3 2.1 2.2 2.2
utility services
Construction 3.7 1.3 4.3 8.2 7.8 7.7
Services 9.6 7.5 8.3 53.0 53.2 54.2
Trade, hotel, transport storage 10.3 7.2 8.3 19.0 19.0 19.3
Financial , real estate & prof. services 10.9 6.0 7.2 21.9 21.7 21.8
Public administration, defence and 6.1 10.7 10.1 12.2 12.6 13.0
other services
GVA at basic prices 8.1 7.1 6.4 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP at market prices 8.2 7.1 6.6 --- --- ---
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO).
Notes: 2nd RE: Second Revised Estimates, 1st RE: First Revised Estimates, 2nd AE: Second Advance Estimates.
Table 2 : Quarter-wise Growth of GVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (per cent)
Sectors 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2.3 2.7 -2.3 1.0 4.3 5.5 7.5 7.1 2.7 2.7 4.1
Industry 7.9 7.6 10.7 11.0 8.3 6.8 7.1 5.0 0.1 5.9 6.8
Mining & quarrying 11.3 11.4 12.0 12.3 10.5 9.1 12.1 18.8 1.8 7.1 -0.1
Manufacturing 9.7 10.9 14.8 14.2 9.9 7.7 8.1 6.1 -1.8 6.9 8.1
Electricity, gas, water supply & 2.6 5.6 3.9 7.6 12.4 7.1 9.5 8.1 7.1 7.7 6.1
other utility services
Construction 4.3 0.2 4.3 4.6 3.0 3.8 2.8 -3.9 1.5 2.8 6.8
Services 9.3 10.2 9.4 9.8 9.4 7.9 6.5 6.3 9.6 7.1 7.7
Trade, hotel, transport, 10.5 8.5 10.4 13.1 8.9 7.2 7.5 5.5 8.4 9.3 9.0
communication and services
related to broadcasting
Financial, real estate & 10.4 13.3 10.2 8.8 10.5 8.3 2.8 1.0 8.9 6.4 6.7
professional services
Public administration, defence 5.5 6.6 6.9 6.1 7.7 8.0 10.6 16.4 13.2 5.6 7.2
and other services
GVA at basic price 7.8 8.4 7.3 8.7 8.3 7.2 6.9 6.0 5.6 6.2 6.7
GDP at market prices 7.8 8.1 7.1 9.1 8.1 7.6 6.8 6.1 5.7 6.5 7.2
Source: CSO.
10Table 3 : Production of Major Agricultural Crops (2nd Adv. Est.)
Crops Production (Million Tonnes)
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
(Final) (2nd AE)
Total Food-grains 257.1 265.0 252.0 251.6 275.1 277.5
Rice 105.2 106.7 105.5 104.4 109.7 111.0
Wheat 93.5 95.9 86.5 92.3 98.5 97.1
Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 42.9 38.5 43.8 45.4
Total Pulses 18.3 19.3 17.2 16.4 23.1 24.0
Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 27.5 25.3 31.3 29.9
Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 362.3 348.4 306.1 353.2
Cotton# 34.2 35.9 34.8 30.0 32.6 33.9
Source: DES, DAC&FW, M/o Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare.
Notes: 2nd AE: 2nd Advance Estimates, # : Million bales of 170 kgs. each.
Table 4 : Procurement of Crops (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Rice# 35.0 34.0 31.8 32.0 34.2 38.1 30.1
Wheat@ 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0 28.1 23.0 30.8
Total 63.3 72.2 56.9 60.2 62.3 61.1 60.9
Source: FCI and DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution.
Notes: Procurement of rice as on 1st March 2018.
# : Kharif Marketing Season (October-September), @ : Rabi Marketing Season (April-March).
Table 5 : Offtake of Food-grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 *
Rice 32.6 29.2 30.7 31.8 32.8 31.6
Wheat 33.2 30.6 25.2 31.8 29.1 22.5
Total 65.8 59.8 55.9 63.6 61.9 54.1
(Rice & Wheat)
Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution.
Note: *: up to January 2018.
Table 6 : Stocks of Food-grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops 1st March 2017 1st March 2018
1. Rice 20.4 23.3
2. Unmilled Paddy# 16.5 14.2
3. Converted Unmilled Paddy in terms of Rice 10.9 9.4
4. Wheat 9.4 15.2
Total (Rice & Wheat) (1+3+4) 40.7 47.9
Source: FCI.
Notes: # : Since September 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state agencies in
terms of rice.
11Table 7 : Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production (Base 2011-12)
2015-16 2016-17 2016-17 2017-18 February February
(Apr-Feb.) (Apr-Feb.) 2017 2018
Mining 4.3 5.3 4.8 2.3 4.6 -0.3
Manufacturing 2.9 4.3 4.4 4.6 0.7 8.7
Electricity 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.2 1.2 4.5
Primary goods 5.0 4.9 4.8 3.8 0.8 3.7
Capital goods 3.0 3.2 2.5 5.3 -2.4 20.0
Intermediate goods 1.5 3.3 3.4 2.1 2.3 3.3
Infrastructure/ construction goods 2.8 3.9 4.2 5.2 -1.9 12.6
Consumer durables 3.3 3.0 3.4 0.3 -4.6 7.9
Consumer non-durables 2.6 8.0 8.0 10.2 10.4 7.4
General 3.3 4.6 4.7 4.3 1.2 7.1
Source: CSO.
Note: * : Figures for February 2017-18 are Quick Estimates.
Table 8 : Production growth (per cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries
Industry April-February April-February February -2017 February -2018
2016-17 2017-18
Coal 2.3 1.6 6.6 1.4
Crude oil -2.8 -0.8 -3.4 -2.4
Natural Gas -1.9 3.1 -2.1 -1.5
Refinery Products 5.2 4.9 -2.8 7.8
Fertilizers 0.5 -0.2 -4.0 5.3
Steel 10.7 5.9 8.7 5.0
Cement -0.6 5.7 -15.8 22.9
Electricity 5.8 5.2 1.2 4.0
Overall growth 4.7 4.3 0.6 5.3
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, DIPP (Ministry of Commerce & Industry).
Table 9 : Broad Money - Sources
(₹ Billion)
Item Outstanding Growth*
(as on)
2017 2018 2017 2018
Mar. 31 Mar. 30 % %
M3 1,27,919.4 140,114.8 6.9 9.6
Sources
Net Bank Credit to Government 38,566.1 40,058.1 20.6 3.9
Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 84,114.9 92,389.3 4.2 9.6
Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector 25,582.3 28,873.1 1.1 12.9
Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public 250.9 256.0 14.5 2.0
Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 20,594.8 21,431.7 11.0 4.1
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
Note: * : Year on Year growth.
12Table 10 : Exports and Imports (US$ million)
Item 2016-17 2017 2018 % Change in 2016-17 2017-18 % Change in
Mar 2018 2017-18(Apr-
March over (Apr-Mar) Mar) over 2016-
Mar 2017 17 (Apr-Mar)
Exports 275852 29302 29109 -0.7 275852 302840 9.8
Imports 384356 39947 42801 7.1 384356 459670 19.6
Oil Imports 86964 9750 11108 13.9 86964 109110 25.5
Non-Oil Imports 297392 30196 31693 5.0 297392 350560 17.9
Trade Deficit -108504 -10645 -13692 - -108504 -156830 -
Source: Provisional data as per the Press Release of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
Table 11 : Balance of Payments: (US$ billion)
Items 2015-16 2016-17 2016-17 2017-18
(Apr.-Mar.) (Apr.-Mar.) (Apr.-Dec.) (Apr.-Dec.)
Merchandise Exports 266.4 280.1 202.8 226.8
Merchandise Imports 396.4 392.6 285.5 345.6
Trade Balance -130.1 -112.4 -82.7 -118.9
Net Invisibles 107.9 97.1 70.9 83.2
Current Account Balance -22.2 -15.3 -11.8 -35.6
Commercial Borrowings (MT & LT) -4.5 -6.1 -5.2 -0.9
Foreign Investment (Net) 31.9 43.2 27.4 43.6
Foreign Direct Investment (Net) 36.0 35.6 30.6 23.7
Foreign Portfolio Investment (Net) -4.1 7.6 -3.2 19.8
Capital Account Balance (including error & omission) 40.1 41.5 41.1 42.9
Change in Reserves (Increase - / Decrease +) -17.9 -21.6 -14.2 -30.3
Trade balance/GDP (%) -6.2 -4.9 -5.0 -6.2
Net Invisible Balance / GDP (%) 5.1 4.3 4.3 4.4
Current Account Balance/ GDP (%) -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -1.9
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
13Table 12 : Foreign Exchange Reserves (in Billion)
End of Financial Year Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation
(Rupees ) (US Dollar) (Rupees ) (US Dollar )
At the end of year (Variation over last year)
2012-13 15884 292.0 823 -2.4
2013-14 18284 304.2 2400 12.2
2014-15 21376 341.6 3093 37.4
2015-16 23787 360.2 2411 18.5
2016-17 23982 370.0 195 9.8
2017-18* 27598 424.4 3616 54.4
At the end of month (Variation over last month)
2017-18
April 2017 23968 373.3 -14 3.4
May 2017 24529 380.1 561 6.8
June 2017 25019 386.5 489 6.4
July 2017 25221 393.7 202 7.1
August 2017 25463 397.8 243 4.2
September 2017 26149 400.2 686 2.4
October 2017 25854 399.2 -295 -1.0
November 2017 25894 401.9 40 2.7
December 2017 26148 409.1 254 7.1
January 2018 26897 422.4 749 13.3
February 2018 27400 421.0 503 -1.4
March 2018* 27598 424.4 198 3.4
Source: Reserve Bank of India,
Notes: * : As on 30th March, 2018
Table 13 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency*
Financial Year US dollar Pound sterling Euro Japanese yen
2012-13** 54.4099 86.1380 70.0693 0.6585
2013-14 60.5019 96.3058 81.1745 0.6040
2014-15 61.1436 98.5730 77.5210 0.5583
2015-16 65.4647 98.5730 72.2907 0.5459
2016-17 67.0731 87.6952 73.6141 0.6204
2017-18 64.4551 85.5129 75.4378 0.5818
Monthly
2017-18
April 2017 64.5071 81.5426 69.1656 0.5857
May 2017 64.4248 83.2101 71.2258 0.5745
June 2017 64.4430 82.5126 72.4139 0.5814
July 2017 64.4559 83.7544 74.2036 0.5734
August 2017 63.9684 83.0433 75.5956 0.5822
September 2017 64.4409 85.7254 76.7891 0.5822
October 2017 65.0813 85.9151 76.4800 0.5764
November 2017 64.8626 85.7741 76.1211 0.5749
December 2017 64.2423 86.1115 75.9975 0.5688
January 2018 63.6369 87.6509 77.4493 0.5726
February 2018 64.3738 90.0763 79.5625 0.5963
March 2018 65.0213 90.8382 80.2499 0.6134
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
Notes: * : FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis),
** : Data from March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate.
14Table 14 : External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)*
Mar -2017 2016-17 Mar -2018 2017-18
External Assistance (Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 7,354.3 41,001.4 5,970.8 44,096.6
2) Repayments 2,668.3 26,194.9 3,206.4 26,685.3
3) Interest Payments 761.3 5,144.3 915.2 5,934.3
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 4,686.0 14,806.5 2,764.4 17,411.4
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 3,924.7 9,662.3 1,849.2 11,477.1
External Assistance (Non-Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 2,235.4 6,663.6 61.1 2,267.9
2) Repayments 852.6 5,124.0 109.8 3,817.2
3) Interest Payments 52.4 689.6 9.7 777.9
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 1,382.8 1,539.6 -48.8 -1,549.3
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 1,330.4 850.0 -58.4 -2,327.2
Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 19.7 978.9 15.1 1,418.9
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 19.7 978.9 15.1 1,418.9
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 19.7 978.9 15.1 1,418.9
Non-Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 11.2 0.0 0.0
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 11.2 0.0 0.0
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 11.2 0.0 0.0
Grand Total
1) Gross Disbursements 9,609.3 48,655.2 6,046.9 47,783.4
2) Repayments 3,520.9 31,318.9 3,316.2 30,502.5
3) Interest Payments 813.7 5,833.9 924.8 6,712.2
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 6,088.4 17,336.3 2,730.8 17,281.0
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 5,274.7 11,502.4 1,805.9 10,568.8
Source: Office of the Controller of Aid, Accounts and Audit, Ministry of Finance.
Note: * : Data are provisional.
15Table 15 : Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (per cent)
WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI-C
Base : 2011-12 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012
2014-15 1.2 6.3 6.6 6.9 5.9
2015-16 -3.7 5.6 4.4 4.6 4.9
2016-17 1.7 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5
2017-18 (P) 2.9 - - - 3.6
Apr-17 3.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 3.0
May-17 2.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.2
Jun-17 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.5
Jul-17 1.9 1.8 0.8 1.0 2.4
Aug-17 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.2 3.3
Sep-17 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.5 3.3
Oct-17 3.7 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.6
Nov-17 4.0 4.0 3.1 3.1 4.9
Dec-17 3.6 4.0 2.7 2.8 5.2
Jan-18 3.0 5.1 2.9 2.9 5.1
Feb-18 2.5 4.7 2.3 2.5 4.4
Mar-18 2.5 - - - 4.3
Source: Office of Economic Adviser- DIPP, Labour Bureau and Central Statistics Office.
Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI-C inflation for last one month are provisional and 2017-18 are also
provisional.
Table 16 : Year-on-Year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (per cent)
Mar-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018
Energy 38 23.4 15.9 23.9
Non-energy 9.2 2.3 2.2 3.7
Agriculture 3.8 -4.0 -2.3 1.6
Beverages -4.4 -11.7 -7.3 -2.6
Food 5 -3.9 -1.8 2.1
Raw Materials 5.2 0.1 -1.5 2.3
Fertilizers -2 -5.0 -3.9 -0.8
Metals & Minerals 26.4 18.8 13.7 9.2
Precious Metals 1.2 9.7 5.0 5
Source: World Bank.
16Table 17 : Fiscal parameters of the Central Government ( ` crore )
2016-2017 (Actual) 2017-2018 (BE) 2017-2018 (RE) 2018-2019 (BE)
1. Revenue Receipts 1374203 1515771 1505428 1725738
2. Tax Revenue (Net to Centre) 1101372 1227014 1269454 1480649
3. Non-Tax Revenue 272831 288757 235974 245089
4. Capital Receipts 600991 630964 712322 716475
5. Recovery of Loans 17630 11933 17473 12199
6. Other Receipts 47743 72500 100000 80000
7. Borrowings and Other Liabilities 535618 546531 594849 624276
8. Total Receipts (1+4) 1975194 2146735 2217750 2442213
9. Total Expenditure (10+12) 1975194 2146735 2217750 2442213
10. On Revenue Account 1690584 1836934 1944305 2141772
11. Interest Payments 480714 523078 530843 575795
12. On Capital Account 284610 309801 273445 300441
13. Revenue Deficit (10-1) 316381 321163 438877 416034
(Per cent of GDP) 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.2
14. Fiscal Deficit (9-1-5-6) 535618 546531 594849 624276
(Per cent of GDP) 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.3
15. Primary Deficit (14-11) 54904 23453 64006 48481
(Per cent of GDP) 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3
Source: Union Budget 2018-19.
Notes: BE: Budget estimate; RE: Revised estimate.
17