Monthly Economic Review May 2014

Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division 4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT MAY 2014 HIGHLIGHTS  The overall growth of GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices (real GDP) for 2013-14 is placed at 4.7 per cent as compared to 4.5 per cent for 2012-13 (as per the Provisional Estimates released on 30th May, 2014). The GDP growth rate is placed at 4.7 and 5.2 per cent respectively in the first and second quarters, and 4.6 per cent each in third and fourth quarters of 2013-14.  Food grains (rice and wheat) stocks held by FCI and State agencies were 69.84 million tonnes as on June 1, 2014 vis-à-vis the buffer stock norm of 21.20 million tonnes as on April 1, 2014 and 31.90 million tonnes as on July 1, 2014.  Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was 3.4 per cent in April 2014 as compared to 1.5 per cent in April 2013. In 2013-14, IIP registered a growth of (-) 0.1 vis-à-vis 1.1 per cent in 2012-13.  Eight core infrastructure industries registered a growth of 4.2 per cent in April 2014 as compared to 3.7 per cent in April 2013. In 2013-14, these sectors grew by 2.7 per cent as compared to 6.5 per cent in 2012-13.  Broad money (M ) for 2014-15 (up to May 30, 2014) increased by 2.7 per cent as 3 compared to 2.8 per cent during the corresponding period of the last year. The year-on- year growth, as on May 30, 2014 was 13.2 per cent as compared to 12.5 per cent in the previous year.  Exports increased by 12.4 per cent and imports declined by 11.4 per cent, in US dollar terms, in May 2014 over May 2013.  Foreign Currency Assets stood at US$ 287.3 billion at end-May 2014 as compared to US$ 259.6 billion at end-May 2013.  The Rupee appreciated against US dollar, Pound sterling, Japanese yen and Euro in the month of May 2014 over April 2014.  The WPI inflation for all commodities for the month of May 2014 has increased to 6.01 per cent from 5.20 per cent in April 2014.  Gross tax revenue in 2013-14 stood at Rs 1,138,832 crore, recording a growth of 9.9 per cent over 2012-13.  As a proportion of revised estimate, fiscal deficit and revenue deficit during 2013-14 was 96.9 per cent and 97.3 per cent respectively. (RANGEET GHOSH) Assistant Adviser (Rangeet.Ghosh@nic.in) 1ECONOMIC GROWTH As per the Provisional Estimates of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05 prices) is estimated at 4.7 per cent in 2013-14 with agriculture, industry and services registering growth rates of 4.7 per cent, 0.4 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively. The GDP growth rate is placed at 4.7 per cent, 5.2 per cent in the first and second quarters respectively and 4.6 per cent each in the third and fourth quarters of 2013-14. Table 1: Growth of GDP at factor cost by economic activity (at 2004-05 prices) Growth Percentage Share in GDP 2013- 2013- 2011- 2012- 14 2011- 2012- 14 Sector 12 13(1R) (PE) 12 13(1R) (PE) 1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 5.0 1.4 4.7 14.4 13.9 13.9 2 Industry 7.8 1.0 0.4 28.2 27.3 26.1 a Mining & quarrying 0.1 -2.2 -1.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 b Manufacturing 7.4 1.1 -0.7 16.3 15.8 14.9 c Electricity, gas & water supply 8.4 2.3 5.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 d Construction 10.8 1.1 1.6 7.9 7.7 7.4 3 Services 6.6 7.0 6.8 57.4 58.8 59.9 Trade, hotels, transport & a communication 4.3 5.1 3.0 26.7 26.9 26.4 Financing, insurance, real estate & b business services 11.3 10.9 12.9 18.0 19.1 20.6 Community, social & personal c services 4.9 5.3 5.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 4 GDP at factor cost 6.7 4.5 4.7 100 100 100 1R: 1st Revised Estimates; PE: Provisional Estimates. Source: CSO. Table 2: Growth of Quarterly Estimates of GDP at Constant (2004-05) Prices 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Sector Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 6.5 4.0 5.9 3.4 1.8 1.8 0.8 1.6 4.0 5.0 3.7 6.3 2 Industry 10.1 8.2 6.9 6.3 0.3 -0.4 1.7 2.1 -0.4 2.6 -0.4 -0.2 a Mining & quarrying 0.3 -4.6 -1.9 5.8 -1.1 -0.1 -2.0 -4.8 -3.9 0.0 -1.2 -0.4 b Manufacturing 12.4 7.8 5.3 4.7 -1.1 0.0 2.5 3.0 -1.2 1.3 -1.5 -1.4 c Electricity, gas & water supply 8.5 10.3 9.6 5.4 4.2 1.3 2.6 0.9 3.8 7.8 5.0 7.2 d Construction 8.9 11.9 12.2 10.2 2.8 -1.9 1.0 2.4 1.1 4.4 0.6 0.7 3 Services 6.7 7.0 6.5 6.1 7.2 7.6 6.9 6.3 7.2 6.3 7.2 6.4 Trade, hotels, transport & a communication 5.5 4.7 4.0 3.3 4.0 5.6 5.9 4.8 1.6 3.6 2.9 3.9 Financing, insurance, real estate b and business services 11.3 12.0 11.1 11.0 11.7 10.6 10.2 11.2 12.9 12.1 14.1 12.4 Community, social & personal 10. c services 2.4 5.4 5.7 5.7 7.6 7.4 4.0 2.8 6 3.6 5.7 3.3 4 9. GDP at factor cost 7.6 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.7 5.2 4.6 4.6 Source: CSO. 2Real GDP Growth rate (%) at Factor Cost from Q1 2005-06 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT Rainfall: With respect to rainfall situation in India, the year is categorized into four seasons: winter season (January-February); pre monsoon (March-May); south west monsoon (June- September) and post monsoon (October-December). South west monsoon accounts for more than 75 per cent of annual rainfall. The actual rainfall received during the Monsoon period 01.06.2014 – 11.06.2014, has been 23.0 mm as against the normal at 41.0 mm. Rainfall has been in excess and normal in 8 sub divisions as compared to 30 during the corresponding period last year. As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Long Range Forecast report released on 9th June, 2014, the ESSO-IITM coupled dynamical model predicts moderate El-Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific for summer months and chances of El Nino occurring during monsoon are very high (more than 70%). On the other hand conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean are warmer than normal uniformly throughout the basin. All India production of foodgrains: As per the 3rd advance estimates released by Ministry of Agriculture on 15.05.2014, production of total foodgrains during 2013-14 is estimated at 264.38 million tonnes as compared to 257.13 million tonnes in 2012-13. Table 3A: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (in Million Tonnes) 2013-14 Crop 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 (3rd advance estimates) Rice 99.18 89.09 95.98 105.30 105.24 106.29 Wheat 80.68 80.80 86.87 94.88 93.51 95.85 Total Pulses 14.57 14.66 18.24 17.09 18.34 19.57 Total Food 234.47 218.11 244.49 259.29 257.13 264.38 grains Total Oilseeds 27.72 24.88 32.48 29.79 30.94 32.41 Sugarcane 285.03 292.30 342.38 361.04 341.20 348.38 Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 13.06.2014 was 29.60 million tonnes during 2013-14 and procurement of wheat as on 13.06.2014 was 27.79 million tonnes during 2014-15. 3Table 3B : Procurement in Million Tonnes Crop 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Rice 34.20 35.04 34.04 29.60* Wheat 22.51 28.34 38.15 25.09 27.79* Total 56.71 63.38 72.19 54.69 * Position as on 13.06.2014 Off-take: Off-take of rice during the month of April, 2014 was 21.54 lakh tonnes. This comprises 19.30 lakh tonnes under TPDS and 2.24 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total off take was 17.91 lakh tonnes comprising of 16.19 lakh tonnes under TPDS and 1.72 lakh tonnes under other schemes. Stocks: Stocks of foodgrains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on June 1, 2014 were 69.84 million tonnes, lower by 10.1 per cent compared to the level of 77.70 million tonnes as on June 1, 2013. Table 4: Off-take and stocks of food grains (Million Tonnes) Crop Off-take Stocks 2011-12 2 0 1 2 - 1 3 2 0 1 3 - 1 4 June 1, June 1, (Up to 2013 2014# April 1, 2014) Rice 32.12 32.64 21.53 33.31 20.65 Unmilled Paddy in terms of 7.61 Rice Wheat 24.26 33.21 17.91 44.39 41.58 Total 56.38 65.85 39.44 77.70 69.84 Note: Buffer norms for rice and wheat are 14.20 million tonnes and 7.00 million tonnes respectively as on 1.4.2014 and 11.80 million tonnes & 20.10 million tonnes as on 01.07.2014 respectively. # Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state agencies in terms of rice. 4INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Table 5: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production Industry Group 2012-13 2013-14 April 2013 April 2014 General index 1.1 -0.1 1.5 3.4 Mining -2.3 -0.6 -3.4 1.2 Manufacturing 1.3 -0.8 1.8 2.6 Electricity 4.0 6.1 4.2 11.9 Basic goods 2.4 2.1 1.4 6.8 Capital goods -6.0 -3.6 -0.3 15.7 Intermediate goods 1.6 3.1 2.5 4.4 Consumer goods 2.4 -2.7 1.7 -5.1 Durables 2.0 -12.2 -9.6 -7.6 Non-durables 2.8 5.0 11.3 -3.3 Table 6: Production Growth (Per Cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries Industry 2012-13 2013-14 April 2013 April 2014 Coal 4.6 0.7 1.2 3.3 Crude oil -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 -0.1 Natural Gas -14.5 -13.0 -17.4 -7.7 Refinery Products 29.0 1.7 6.2 -2.2 Fertilizers -3.4 1.5 -2.4 11.1 Steel 4.1 4.9 10.1 3.1 Cement 7.7 3.0 5.2 6.7 Electricity 4.0 5.6 3.5 11.2 Overall growth 6.5 2.7 3.7 4.2 Year-on-Year Growth (%) of IIP 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 00000000000011111111111111111111111111 -4.0 'b e F'r p A'n u J'g u A't c O'c e D'b e F'r p A'n u J'g u A't c O'c e D'b e F'r p A'n u J'g u A,t c O'c e D'b e F'r p A'n u J'g u A't c O'c e D'b e F'r p A'n u J'g u A't c O'c e D'b e F'r p A'n u J'g u A't c O'c e D'b e F'r p A -8.0 5MONEY AND BANKING Broad money (M ) for 2014-15 (up to May 30, 2014) increased by 2.7 per cent as compared to 3 2.8 per cent during the corresponding period of the last year. The year-on-year growth, as on May 30, 2014 was 13.2 per cent as compared to 12.5 per cent in the previous year. Table 7: Money Stock: Components and Sources (Rs. Billion) Item Outstanding as on Variation over 2014 Financial Year so Year-on-Year far 2013-14 2014-15 2013 2014 Mar. 31 May 30 M3 95,066.4 97,622.6 2.8 2.7 12.5 13.2 1 Components 1.1 Currency with the Public 12,482.9 13,092.9 3.1 4.9 9.5 11.3 1.2 Demand Deposits with Banks 8,062.8 8,439.8 –1.6 4.7 9.2 13.7 1.3 Time Deposits with Banks 74,501.7 76,070.7 3.2 2.1 13.4 13.5 1.4 ‘Other’ Deposits with Reserve 19.1 19.1 34.5 0.4 190.2 –56.1 Bank 2 Sources (2.1+2.2+2.3+2.4-2.5) 2.1 Net Bank Credit to 30,504.6 30,957.1 4.9 1.5 14.1 8.9 Government 2.1.1 Reserve Bank 7,077.5 6,699.5 2.1.2 Other Banks 23,427.1 24,257.6 3.7 3.5 12.6 10.4 2.2 Bank Credit to Commercial 64,497.0 65,045.1 2.1 0.8 13.8 12.4 Sector 2.2.1 Reserve Bank 88.4 82.9 2.2.2 Other Banks 64,408.6 64,962.2 2.2 0.9 13.9 12.3 2.3 Net Foreign Exchange Assets 18,998.4 19,197.6 2.3 1.0 2.4 14.7 of Banking Sector 2.4 Government's Currency 171.7 171.7 2.5 – 14.6 9.2 Liabilities to the Public 2.5 Banking Sector's Net Non- 19,105.2 17,748.8 3.6 –7.1 8.8 4.8 Monetary Liabilities 2.5.1 Net Non-Monetary 8,524.2 8,268.7 6.1 –3.0 6.5 12.5 Liabilities of RBI Source: RBI Reserve money (M ) during the financial year 2014-15 (up to May 30, 2014) declined by 0.6 per 0 cent as compared to increase of 1.7 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. The year-on-year variation revealed an increase of 11.8 per cent (up to May 30, 2014) compared to 7.1 per cent on the corresponding date of the previous year. An important source of reserve money, namely, net foreign exchange assets (NFA) of the RBI (up to May 30, 2014), showed an increase of 1.1 per cent compared to an increase of 2.4 per cent on the corresponding date of the last year. 6Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs): business in India During the current financial year 2014-15 (up to May 30, 2014), Bank credit registered an increase of 1.2 per cent, as compared to 2.1 per cent during the corresponding period last year. The y-o-y variation revealed an increase of 13.0 per cent as compared to 13.9 per cent during the same period in the previous year. Non-Food credit during this period increased by 0.6 per cent as compared to 1.9 per cent during the corresponding period of last year. The y-o-y variation revealed an increase of 13.1 per cent compared to 14.4 per cent during the same period in the previous year. The aggregate deposits with Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) increased by 2.9 per cent (up to May 30, 2014), identical to the corresponding period last year. The y-o-y variation revealed an increase of 14.1 per cent as compared to 13.1 per cent in the previous year. Table 8: Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India Items 2014-15 Financial year so far Year-on-year Outstanding as on 2013-14 2014- 2013 2014 ( Rs. billion) 15 March 28, May 30, 2014 2014 Bank Credit 60131 60674 2.1 1.2 13.9 13.0 Non-Food credit 59146 59508 1.9 0.6 14.4 13.1 Aggregate deposits 77394 79289 2.9 2.9 13.1 14.1 Investments in Government. 22217 23037 3.8 4.1 12.7 10.6 And other approved securities Source: RBI 7Table 9 : Policy Rates/Interest Rates (per cent per annum) Item / Week Ended 2013 2014 May 31 May 30 Cash Reserve Ratio (per 4.00 4.00 cent)(1) Bank Rate 8.25 9.00 Repo Rate 7.25 8.00 Reverse Repo Rate 6.25 7.00 Prime Lending Rate(2) 9.70 / 10.25 10.00 / 10.25 Deposit Rate(3) 7.50 / 9.00 8.00 / 9.05 Call Money Rate (Weighted 7.22 7.78 Average)(4) (1) Cash Reserve Ratio relates to Scheduled Commercial Banks (excluding Regional Rural Banks). (2) Prime Lending Rate relates to five major Banks. (3) Deposit Rate relates to major Banks for term deposits of more than one year maturity. (4) Data cover 90-95 per cent of total transactions reported by participants. Source: RBI As on May 30, 2014, the Bank Rate was 9.00 per cent as compared to 8.25 per cent on the corresponding date of last year. As on May 30, 2014 call money rate (weighted average) was 7.78 per cent as compared with 7. 22 per cent on the corresponding date of the previous year. EXTERNAL SECTOR Foreign trade: Exports increased by 12.4 per cent and Imports declined by 11.4 per cent, in US dollar terms during May 2014 over May 2013. Oil imports increased by 2.5 per cent and Non-Oil imports decreased by 17.9 per cent during May 2014 over May 2013. Table 10: Exports and imports (in US$ million) April-May* May* % Change 2013-14 2014-15 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 in May Item (Apr-Mar) (Apr-Mar) (Apr-Mar) 2013 2014 2014 Exports 305964 300401 312610 49264 53633 24911 27999 12.4 Imports 489320 490737 450068 86310 74953 44285 39233 -11.4 Oil 154968 164041 165148 27173 27443 14120 14465 2.5 iNmopno-Ortisl 334352 326696 284920 59137 47511 30165 24768 -17.9 imTrpaodrets -183356 -190336 -137458 -37046 -21321 -19374 -11235 -42.0 balance Note: * Provisional data as per the Press Note of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. 8Table 11: Foreign Currency Assets Amount Variation Rs. Crore US$ million Rs. Crore US$ million At the end of (over last year) March, 2008 1196023 299230 359426 107306 March, 2009 1231340 241676 35317 -57554 March, 2010 1150778 254935 -80562 13259 March, 2011 1225999 274580 75221 19645 March, 2012 1333954 260742 107955 -13838 March, 2013 1418339 260775 84385 33 March, 2014 1672942 278361 254603 17586 2014-15 (over last month) April, 2014 1723905 285710 50963 7349 May, 2014 1695975 287290 -27930 1580 Source: RBI. Exchange rate: The rupee appreciated by 1.8 per cent against US dollar, 1.1 per cent against Pound sterling, 1.0 per cent against Japanese yen and 2.3 per cent against Euro in the month of May 2014 over April 2014. Table 12 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency* US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro March, 2009 51.2287 72.9041 0.5251 66.9207 March, 2010 45.4965 68.4360 0.5018 61.7653 March 2011 44.9684 72.7070 0.5498 62.9660 March, 2012 50.3213 79.6549 0.6103 66.4807 March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951 March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621 2014-15 April 2014 60.3566 101.0794 0.5886 83.3495 May 2014 59.3050 99.9398 0.5828 81.4886 * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis). ** Data from March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate. Rupee per US$ 72 67 62 57 52 9External assistance and debt service payments: Gross external assistance during April-May 2014 stands at Rs. 2450.3 crore as compared to Rs. 3673.8 crore during the corresponding period of the previous year. Net disbursement stood at Rs. 796.8 crore during April-May 2014 as compared to Rs. 2067 crore during April-May 2013 while net transfers were Rs. 341.9 crore during April-May 2014 as compared to Rs. 1628.7 crore during April-May 2013. Table 13: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (Rs. Crore)* MAY During the Financial MAY During the Financial 2014 year 2014-15 up to 2013 year May, 2014 2013-14 up to May, 2013 External Assistance (Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 916.57 2,070.60 1,311.14 2,770.91 2) Repayments 1,057.56 1,649.14 925.44 1,449.32 3) Interest Payments 176.52 454.58 147.57 408.90 4) Net Disbursement -140.99 421.46 385.70 1,321.59 (1-2) 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -317.51 -33.12 238.13 912.69 External Assistance (Non-Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 61.24 264.26 289.63 478.54 2) Repayments 0.00 4.31 155.18 157.50 3) Interest Payments 0.00 0.34 26.09 29.36 4) Net Disbursement 61.24 259.95 134.45 321.04 (1-2) 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 61.24 259.61 108.36 291.68 Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 32.35 115.41 393.18 424.37 2) Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3) Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4) Net Disbursement 32.35 115.41 393.18 424.37 (1-2) 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 32.35 115.41 393.18 424.37 Non-Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2) Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3) Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4) Net Disbursement 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1-2) 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Grand Total 1) Gross Disbursements 1,010.16 2,450.27 1,993.95 3,673.82 2) Repayments 1,057.56 1,653.45 1,080.62 1,606.82 3) Interest Payments 176.52 454.92 173.66 438.26 4) Net Disbursement -47.40 796.82 913.33 2,067.00 (1-2) 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -223.92 341.90 739.67 1,628.74 *: Data are provisional. 10INFLATION Wholesale Price Index (WPI 2004-05=100): The headline WPI inflation has gone up to 6.01 per cent in May 2014 from 5.20 per cent in the previous month. Inflation for Primary food articles (wt. 14.34%) for the month of May 2014 has increased to 9.50 per cent from 8.64 per cent in the previous month mainly on account of higher inflation in moong, masur, urad, fruits, milk, fish, meat, condiments & spices and coffee . Inflation, however, has declined in cereals, vegetables and eggs. Food inflation (primary food + manufactured food) (wt. 24.31 %) has thus increased to 6.98 per cent from 6.34 per cent in the previous month. Inflation for Fuel & power (wt. 14.91%) has increased to 10.53 per cent for the month of May 2014 from 8.93 per cent in the previous month on account of diesel, electricity and petrol. Inflation for manufactured products (wt. 64.97%) increased to 3.55 per cent in May 2014. Non-food manufactured inflation (core as defined by RBI) also increased to 3.84 per cent in May 2014 from 3.40 per cent in the previous month. Increase in inflation of wood, paper, chemicals and basic metals has more than offset the decline in textiles, leather, rubber, non-metallic mineral products and machinery. The average WPI inflation rate for the last 12 months (June 2013 to May 2014) was 6.13 per cent as compared to 6.87 per cent during the corresponding period in 2013- 14. The build-up of inflation since March is 0.78 per cent as against 0.76 per cent in the corresponding period last year. WPI inflation rates for major groups are indicated in Table 14. Table 14: Current Price Situation based on Monthly WPI in May 2014 (Base: 2004-05=100) Major groups Weight Cumulative Inflation (%) I n flation (%) (%) change (%) Since (Average of 12 March months) 2014- 2013-14 2014-15 2013- 2014-15 2013- 15 14 14 ALL COMMODITIES 100.00 0.78 0.76 6.01 4.58 6.13 6.87 PRIMARY ARTICLES 20.12 3.09 1.88 8.58 5.72 10.21 9.01 Food articles 14.34 4.13 4.20 9.50 8.25 13.02 9.28 FUEL AND POWER 14.91 -0.98 0.16 10.53 7.27 10.46 9.67 MANUFACTURED PDT. 64.97 0.26 0.40 3.55 3.25 2.98 5.11 Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPIs): The all India CPI inflation (combined) declined to 8.28 per cent in May 2014 from 8.59 per cent in April 2014 on account of cereals and vegetables. Inflation based on CPI-IW stood at 7.08 per cent in April 2014 as compared to 6.70 per cent in March 2014. Inflation based on other sector specific CPI’s (CPI-AL &RL) was above 8 per cent in May 2014. Table 15: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPIs (per cent) WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI(NS) Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2010 May- 13 4.58 10.68 12.70 12.50 9.31 June-13 5.16 11.06 12.85 12.65 9.87 July-13 5.85 10.85 12.80 12.61 9.64 Aug-13 6.99 10.75 13.21 12.89 9.52 Sep-13 7.05 10.70 12.78 12.44 9.84 Oct-13 7.24 11.06 12.65 12.48 10.17 Nov-13 7.52 11.47 13.43 13.27 11.16 Dec-13 6.40 9.13 11.19 11.18 9.87 Jan-14 5.11 7.24 9.08 9.21 8.79 Feb-14 5.03 6.73 8.14 8.27 8.03 Mar-14 6.00 6.70 8.38 8.51 8.31 Apr-14 5.20 7.08 8.44 8.72 8.59 May-14 6.01 - 8.07 8.33 8.28 Note: WPI inflation for Apr & May-14 and CPI (New Series) inflation for May-14 is provisional. 11Table 16: World Commodity Price Data Annual averages Monthly averages Commodity Unit Jan- Dec Jan- Dec Jan- Apr Mar Apr May 2012 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 Coal, Australia $/mt 96.4 84.6 75.6 73.3 72.8 73.7 Crude oil, average $/bbl 105.0 104.1 104.3 104.0 104.9 105.7 Natural gas, US $/mmbtu 2.8 3.7 5.0 4.5 4.7 4.6 Cocoa $/kg 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 Coffee, Robusta $/kg 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Tea, auctions avg. $/kg 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 Coconut oil $/mt 1111 941 1358 1394 1356 1404 Groundnut oil $/mt 2436 1773 1262 1221 1174 1200 Palm oil $/mt 999.3 856.9 907.7 961.0 911.0 893.3 Palm kernel oil $/mt 1110 897 1277 1381 1299 1254 Soybean meal $/mt 524.1 545.3 578.0 584.0 566.0 578.8 Soybean oil $/mt 1226 1057 979 1002 999 965 Soybeans $/mt 591.4 538.4 538.9 500.0 516.0 521.3 Maize $/mt 298.4 259.4 213.9 222.3 222.4 217.3 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 563.0 505.9 422.8 422.0 395.0 388.0 Wheat, US, HRW $/mt 313.2 312.2 310.2 323.6 324.9 334.7 Bananas, US $/mt 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 Oranges $/mt 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Fishmeal $/mt 1558 1747 1612 1653 1658 1656 Meat, chicken $/kg 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 Meat, beef $/kg 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.3 Sugar, world $/kg 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Plywood $/sheets 610.3 560.2 532.7 533.6 532.5 536.5 Cotton A Index $/kg 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 Rubber, TSR20 $/kg 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 DAP $/mt 539.8 444.9 468.7 499.4 470.6 444.6 Urea $/mt 405.4 340.1 320.5 315.8 291.1 299.1 Copper $/mt 7962 7332 6931 6650 6674 6891 Lead $/mt 2064.6 2139.8 2097.7 2053 2087 2097 Tin $/mt 21126 22283 22917 23024 23405 23271 Nickel $/mt 17548 15032 16152 15678 17374 19401 Zinc $/mt 1950.4 1910.3 2033.1 2007.9 2027.2 2059.0 Gold $/toz 1670 1411 1293 1336 1298 1289 Silver $/toz 31 24 20 21 20 19 Iron ore $/dmt 128.5 135.4 115.3 111.8 114.6 100.6 Source: World Bank – The Pink Sheet 12PUBLIC FINANCE As a proportion of revised estimate, fiscal deficit and revenue deficit during 2013-14 was 96.9 per cent and 97.3 per cent respectively. Table 17: Trends in Central Government Finances: April-March 2013-14 (Rs. Crore) 2012-13 2013-14 Variations Provisional per cent change Prov. over 2013-14 2013-14 (P) RE 2012- as percent of over 2012-13 13 RE Actual Actuals BE RE Provisional Absolute (%) (%) Revenue Receipts 877613 1056330 1029251 1015279 -13972 98.6 15.7 Gross tax revenue⋆ 1036235 1235870 1158905 1138832 -20073 98.3 9.9 Tax (net to 740256 884078 836025 816046 -19979 97.6 10.2 Centre) Non Tax 137357 172252 193226 199233 6007 103.1 45.0 Non-Debt Capital 42158 66468 36644 40057 3413 109.3 -5.0 Receipts Recovery of loans 16268 10654 10803 12502 1699 115.7 -23.1 Disinvestment 25890 55814 25841 27555 1714 106.6 6.4 Proceeds Total Non-Debt 919771 1122798 1065895 1055336 -10559 99.0 14.7 Receipt Memo items Corporation Tax 356326 419520 393677 394677 1000 100.3 10.8 Income Tax 196512 240919 236194 237789 1595 100.7 21.0 Union Excise Duty 175845 196805 178787 169469 -9318 94.8 -3.6 Customs 165346 187308 175056 172132 -2924 98.3 4.1 Service Tax 132601 180141 164927 154630 -10297 93.8 16.6 Total (Memo 1026630 1224693 1148641 1128697 -19944 98.3 9.9 Items) Devolution to 291547 346992 318230 318230 0 100.0 9.2 States Non-Plan 996742 1109975 1114902 1110400 -4502 99.6 11.4 Expenditure (a+b) (a) On Revenue 914301 992908 1027688 1023047 -4641 99.5 11.9 Account of which: (1) Interest 313169 370684 380066 377502 -2564 99.3 20.5 Payments (2) Major 247493 220972 245451 247596 2145 100.9 0.0 Subsidies (3) Pensions 69478 70726 74076 74606 530 100.7 7.4 (b) On Capital 82441 117067 87214 87353 139 100.2 6.0 Account Plan Expenditure 413625 555322 475532 453085 -22447 95.3 9.5 (a) Revenue 329208 443260 371851 352543 -19308 94.8 7.1 Account (b) Capital Account 84417 112062 103681 100542 -3139 97.0 19.1 Total Expenditure 1410367 1665297 1590434 1563485 -26949 98.3 10.9 Grants for Capital Assets 115513 174656 121283 129839 8556 107.1 12.4 Capital Expenditure 166858 229129 190895 187895 -3000 98.4 12.6 Revenue Deficit 365896 379838 370288 360311 -9977 97.3 -1.5 Effective Revenue Deficit 250383 205182 249005 230472 -18533 92.6 -8.0 Fiscal Deficit 490596 542499 524539 508149 -16390 96.9 3.6 Primary Deficit 177427 171815 144473 130647 -13826 90.4 -26.4 Source: CGA, *Gross Tax Revenue is prior to devolution to the States. 13