Monthly Economic Review May 2015

Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division 4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT MAY 2015 ***** HIGHLIGHTS  The growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) market prices is estimated at 7.3 per cent in 2014-15 (Provisional Estimates). The growth of Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices for agriculture & allied sectors, industry sector and services sector are estimated at 0.2 per cent, 6.1 per cent and 10.2 per cent respectively in 2014-15 as compared to the corresponding rates of 3.7 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 9.1 per cent respectively in 2013-14.  Stocks of food grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI and State agencies were 63.0 million tonnes as on June 1, 2015 vis-à-vis the buffer stock norm of 21.0 million tonnes as on April 1, 2015.  Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was 4.1 per cent during April 2015 as compared to 3.7 per cent in April 2014. In the year 2014-15, IIP growth was 2.8 per cent as compared to (-) 0.1 per cent in the previous year.  Eight core infrastructure industries registered a contraction of 0.4 per cent in April 2015 as compared to growth of 5.7 per cent in April 2014. In the year 2014-15, these sectors grew by 3.6 per cent as compared to 4.2 per cent growth in the previous year.  Growth in broad money (M3)on year-on-year basis was 11.0 per cent on May 29, 2015 which was 13.2 per cent on the corresponding date of previous year.  Merchandise exports and imports declined by 20.2 per cent and 16.5 per cent respectively in US$ terms in May 2015 over May 2014.  Foreign exchange reserves were US$ 352.5 billion at end-May 2015 as compared to US$ 341.4 billion at end-March 2015 and US$ 312.4 billion at end-May 2014.  The rupee depreciated against the US dollar, Pound sterling, Euro and Japanese yen in May 2015, by 1.6 per cent, 5.0 per cent, 4.8 and 0.6 percent respectively over April 2015.  The WPI inflation for all commodities in May 2015 stood at (-) 2.4 per cent as compared to (-) 2.7 per cent in April 2015.  Gross tax revenue in April 2015, at ` 34816 crore, grew by 20.9 per cent over April 2014.  As per the provisional accounts released by the Controller General of Accounts for 2014- 15, fiscal deficit was 4.0 per cent of GDP and revenue deficit was 2.8 per cent of GDP. (Narendra Jena) Economic Officer jena.narendra@nic.in 11. ECONOMIC GROWTH  The growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) market prices is estimated at 7.3 percent in 2014-15 (provisional estimates), as compared to 6.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent in 2013-14 and 2012-13 respectively (Table 1).  The growth rate of Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices for agriculture & allied sectors, industry sector and services sector are estimated to be at 0.2 per cent, 6.1 per cent and 10.2 per cent respectively in 2014-15 compared to the corresponding rate of 3.7 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 9.1 per cent respectively in 2013-14 (Table 1).  The growth rate of quarterly GVA at constant basic prices for all four quarters of 2014-15 is estimated at 6.7 per cent (Q1), 8.4 per cent (Q2), 6.6 per cent (Q3) and 7.5 per cent (Q4), compared to the corresponding rate of 7.0 per cent (Q1), 7.5 per cent (Q2) , 6.4 per cent (Q3) and 6.7 per cent (Q4) in 2013-14 (Table 2).  The final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP increased from 69.8 per cent in 2012-13 to 71.0 per cent in 2013-14 and further to 71.5 per cent in 2014-15. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP declined from 31.4 per cent in 2012-13 to 29.7 per cent in 2013-14 to 28.7 per cent in 2014-15.  There was a decline in the rate of gross domestic saving from 33.9 per cent of the GDP in 2011-12 to 31.8 per cent in 2012-13 and further to 30.6 per cent in 2013-14. This was caused mainly by the sharp decline in the rate of household physical savings. 2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT  Rainfall: With respect to rainfall situation in India, the year is categorized into four seasons: winter season (January-February); pre monsoon (March-May); south west monsoon (June- September) and post monsoon (October-December). South west monsoon accounts for more than 75 per cent of annual rainfall. The actual rainfall received during the monsoon period 01.06.2015 – 17.06.2015, has been 80.7 mm as against the normal at 72.8 mm. Rainfall has been excess/normal in 24 sub divisions as compared to 8 during the corresponding period last year.  All India production of food grains: As per the 3rd advance estimates released by Ministry of Agriculture on 13.05.2015, production of total foodgrains during 2014-15 is estimated at 251.1 million tonnes, compared to 265.6 million tonnes in 2013-14 and 257.1 million tonnes in 2012-13 (Table 3). 2 Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 19.06.2015 was 29.9 million tonnes during Kharif Marketing Season (October–September) 2014-15 and procurement of wheat was 27.5 million tonnes during Rabi Marketing Season (April-March) 2015-16 (Table 4).  Off-take: The off-take of rice in April 2015 was 20.9 lakh tonnes. This comprises 18.3 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month of May 2015) and 2.6 lakh tonnes under other schemes. The off-take of wheat was 18.7 lakh tonnes comprising 17.1 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month of May, 2015) and 1.6 lakh tonnes under other schemes.  Stocks: Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on June 1, 2015 were 63.0 million tonnes, which is lower by 9.8 per cent compared to the level of 69.8 million tonnes as on June 1, 2014 (Table 5). 3. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE Index of Industrial Production (IIP)  The higher growth of IIP at 4.1 per cent for April 2015 as compared to 3.7 per cent in April 2014 is due to lower base effect, comparatively higher growth of 5.1 per cent in manufacturing sector and despite contraction in the eight core sectors.  The 1.4 per cent growth in mining in April 2015 is boosted by the 7.9 per cent growth in coal and moderated by degrowth in crude oil and natural gas.  The 5.1 per cent growth in manufacturing is contributed by growth in machinery and equipment (20.6%), wood and wood Products (16.2%), electrical machinery (13.4%), wearing apparel (10.1 %) and chemicals and chemical products (9.5 %).  In terms of use based classification, all categories viz. basic goods, capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods including consumer durables and non-durables have shown positive growth in April 2015. Mild positive growth in consumer durables has occurred after contraction continuously for the last ten months.  Degrowth in electricity and cement and low growth in steel production moderated growth in basic goods to 2.8 per cent in April 2015.  Growth in capital goods at 11.1 per cent in April 2015 was assisted by double digit growth in the production of three wheelers and medium and heavy commercial vehicles.  The production of passenger vehicles increased by 10.8 per cent in April 2015, which boosted the growth of consumer durables segment. Eight Core Industries  April 2015 is the second successive month of contraction in the eight core industries . Six sectors viz. crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, cement and electricity have experienced negative growth in April 2015.  Electricity had registered impressive growth in 2014-15. However, it has been slowing down since December 2014 and in April 2015 it declined by 1.1 per cent .  The growth in coal production increased by 7.9 per cent in April 2015. Production by Coal India Limited and its subsidiary companies surpassed the target.  After attaining mild positive growth in March 2015, crude oil production has slipped again. Oil production declined by 2.7 per cent in April 2015. 3 Natural gas production declined by 3.6 per cent in April 2015 mainly because of poor onshore production by ONGC and OIL and offshore production by private/JVC.  Refinery production declined by 2.9 per cent in April 2015. BPCL, HPCL and RIL increased production while Indian Oil experienced fall of 11.2 percent due to planned shut down and technical problems in some refineries.  Cement declined by 2.4 per cent in April 2015, after experiencing negative growth in March 2015.  Steel production increased by 0.6 per cent in April 2015. India’s steel imports jumped by 51.6 per cent in April 2015 as compared with the year ago period. Domestic steel production is affected by cheap imports and raw material issues.  Fertiliser production declined by 0.04 per cent in April 2015 after achieving a growth of 5.2 per cent in March 2015. The CCEA has recently approved gas pooling for urea sector which will enable the units to get gas at pooled price.  A comparison between growth in IIP and eight core industries is given in the chart below. Some Infrastructure Indicators  The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 996.5 million at the end of March 2015 to 999.7 million at the end of April 2015. The overall tele-density in India stood at 79.6 at end-April 2015; the urban tele-density was149.1 and rural tele-density was 48.4.  The rail freight (tonnes originating) grew by 1.2 per cent in April 2015 and by 4.2 per cent during April-March 2014-15. The net tonne kilometers of rail freight grew by 1.2 per cent in April 2015 and by 5.2 per cent during April -March 2014-15. Total revenue from commodities increased by 12.2 per cent in 2014-15.  The cargo handled in major ports grew by 5.3 per cent to 100.9 million tonnes in April-May 2015 from 95.9 million tonnes in April-May 2014.  Power Sector Scenario (Source: Central Electricty Authority): Electricity generation registered a contraction of 5.5 per cent in May 2015 to 94.9 billion units from 90.0 billion units in May 2014. 4 The electricity capacity addition was 965.0 MW in April 2015, compared to 135.0 MW in April 2014.  The total installed capacity for electricity was 272503.0 MW as on 31st May 2015 of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 69.5 per cent, 15.3 per cent , 13.1 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively. 4. FINANCIAL MARKETS Money and Banking  Growth in broad money (M3) on year-on-year basis was 11.0 per cent on May 29, 2015 which was 13.2 per cent on the corresponding date of the previous year. An important source of reserve money, namely, net foreign exchange assets (NFA) of the Reserve Bank of India increased by 22.6 per cent (up to May 29, 2015) as compared to an increase of 14.3 percent during the corresponding period of the previous year.  Growth in bank credit stood at 9.8 per cent as in May 2015 on year-on-year basis which was 12.5 per cent in the corresponding month of previous year.  The growth rate of aggregate deposits with scheduled commercial banks decreased to 11.5 per cent in May, 2015 on year-on-year basis from 13.4 per cent on the corresponding period of the previous year. Investment in government and other securities increased by 14.5 per cent from 10.1 per cent a year ago.  Interest rate (Bank rates in per cent) as on May 29, 2015 was 8.50 per cent as compared to 9.00 per cent on the corresponding date of the last year. As on May 29, 2015, call money rate (weighted average) was 7.52 per cent as compared to 7.78 per cent on the corresponding date of the last year. 5. EXTERNAL SECTOR  Foreign trade: Exports and imports declined by 20.2 per cent and 16.5 per cent respectively in US$ terms in May 2015 over May 2014. Oil and non-oil imports declined by 41.0 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively during May 2015 (y-o-y). The sharper decline in imports caused trade deficit to decline to US$ 10.4 billion in May 2015, compared to US$ 11.2 billion in May 2014.  Foreign exchange reserves were US$ 352.5 billion at end-May 2015 as compared to US$ 341.4 billion at end-March 2015 and US$ 312.4 billion at end-May 2014.  Current account deficit (CAD): Current Account Deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to US$ 27.9 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) in 2014-15 from US$ 32.4 billion (1.7 per cent of GDP) in the previous year.  Net capital inflows increased to US$ 89.3 billion (4.4 per cent of GDP) in 2014-15 from US$ 47.9 billion (2.6 per cent of GDP) in 2013-14 owing largely to higher net inflows of FDI, portfolio investment and NRI deposits.  Exchange rate: The rupee depreciated against the US dollar, Pound sterling, Euro and Japanese yen in May 2015, by 1.6 per cent, 5.0 per cent, 4.8 and 0.6 percent respectively over the previous month of April 2015.  External Debt: India’s external debt remains within manageable limits as indicated by the external debt-GDP ratio of 23.2 per cent at end-December 2014 vis-à-vis 23.7 per cent at end-March 2014. External debt stock stood at US$ 461.9 billion at end-December 2014 recording an increase of 3.5 per cent over the level at end-March 2014. Short-term external 5debt was US$ 85.6 billion at end-December 2014, declining of 6.7 per cent over the level at end-March 2014. Long-term debt accounted for 81.5 per cent of the total external debt at end-December 2014 (79.5 per cent at end-March 2014).  External assistance and debt service payments: Gross external assistance stood at ` 1543.4 crore in May 2015 as compared to ` 1331.8 crore in May 2014. 6. INFLATION  Wholesale Price Index (WPI 2004-05=100): The headline WPI inflation remained negative for the seventh month in a row and reached (-) 2.4 per cent in May 2015 from (-) 2.7 per cent in the previous month (April 2015). Inflation for food articles for the month of May 2015 declined to 3.8 per cent from 5.7 per cent in the previous month on account of decline in inflation in all sub-groups of food articles except pulses. Food inflation (food articles + food products) also declined to 2.3 per cent from 3.5 per cent in the previous month.  Inflation in fuel & power was (-) 10.5 per cent in May 2015 compared to (-) 13.0 per cent in the previous month. Inflation for Manufactured products stood at (-) 0.6 per cent in May 2015 as compared to (-) 0.5 per cent in the previous month.  Non-food manufactured product inflation (core as defined by RBI) declined to (-) 0.6 per cent from (-) 0.4 per cent in the previous month. 6 The average WPI inflation rate for the last 12 months (June 2014 to May 2015) was 0.6 per cent as compared to 6.2 per cent during the corresponding period last year.  Consumer Price Index: The all India CPI inflation (New Series- Combined) increased marginally to 5.0 per cent in May 2015 from 4.9 per cent in April 2015. Inflation in terms of Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) declined to 4.8 per cent in May 2015 from 5.1 per cent in the previous month mainly on account of cereals, milk, fruits, vegetables and sugar. The contribution of food group to overall CPI inflation has been declining in the last three months.  Inflation based on CPI-IW declined to 5.8 per cent in April 2015 from 6.3 per cent in March 2015. Inflation based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL was below 5 per cent in April 2015.  Inflation in global commodity prices remained subdued in May 2015. However, Crude prices showed a rising trend and crossed $60/bbl in May 2015. Global year-on-year inflation was negative for all broad groups in May 2015 (Table 14). The weakness in global commodity prices is expected to continue for the rest of the year as per the latest Commodity Markets Outlook (April 2015) of the World Bank. 77. PUBLIC FINANCE  The budget estimates the fiscal deficit for 2015-16 is 3.9 per cent as compared to 4.0 per cent in 2014-15 (provisional actual). The budget estimates for revenue deficit for 2015-16 is 2.8 per cent, the same as the provisional actual in 2014-15.  The growth in the provisional actual figures for April, 2015-16 over April, 2014-15 is the following;  Gross tax revenue at ` 34816 crore increased by 20.9 per cent in April 2015-16.  Revenue Receipts (net to Centre) at ` 25313 crore increased by 265.3 per cent in April 2015- 16.  Tax revenue (net to Centre) at ` (-) 2813 crore declined by 387.9 per cent.  Non-tax revenue at ` 28126 crore increased by 372.5 per cent.  Non-plan revenue expenditure increased by 13.7 per cent.  Plan expenditure grew by 52.7 per cent.  Total expenditure, at `154617 crore, grew by 28.3 per cent. 8. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN MAY 2015  The social security schemes pertaining to the insurance and pension sector, Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana and the Atal Pension Yojana were launched by the Government of India.  The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) gave approval for modifications of the guidelines for infrastructure development under the Mega Food Park Scheme. This will streamline and smoothen the implementation of the scheme.  CCEA approved two major policy initiatives aimed at improving the availability of equity in the market and authorized the National Highways Authority of India to intervene in languishing projects suffering from lack of funds.  The Central Government notified 1st June 2015 as the date from which the rate of Service Tax of 14 per cent would become applicable. The provisions levying Education Cess and Secondary and Higher Education Cess would also cease to have effect from same date as the same would be subsumed in the service tax rate of 14 per cent. 8 A committee on revisiting and revitalizing the PPP model of infrastructure development was constituted in pursuance of the announcement in Union Budget 2015-16. The committee will review the experience of PPP policy, analyse risks involved and propose design modifications to contractual arrangements.  Government gave approval for nineteen proposals of Foreign Direct Investment amounting to ` 2165 crore approximately.  The Union Cabinet has given its approval to review of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy on investments by Non-Resident Indians (NRIs), Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) and Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs).The decision that NRI includes OCI cardholders as well as PIO cardholders is meant to align the FDI policy with the stated policy of the Government to provide PIOs and OCIs parity with NRIs in respect of economic, financial and educational fields. Further the decision that NRIs investment under Schedule 4 of FEMA (Transfer or Issue of Security by Persons Resident Outside India) Regulations will be deemed to be domestic investment made by residents, is meant to provide clarity in the FDI policy as such investment is not included in the category of foreign investment. The measure is expected to result in increased investments across sectors and greater inflow of foreign exchange remittance leading to economic growth of the country.  CCEA approved the proposal to review the investment limit for cases requiring prior approval of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board/CCEA.  The Union Cabinet gave approval to allow the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) as an eligible financial instrument/structure under the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) 1999.  High Level Committee on Direct Tax Matters, headed by Justice A.P. Shah, was constituted to examine the levy of MAT on FIIS for the period prior to 01.04.2015. The Committee will also examine the related legal provisions, judicial/quasi judicial pronouncements and relevant aspects.  The Union Cabinet gave approval for revising the Double Taxation Avoidance Convention (DTAC), signed in 1985 between India and the Republic of Korea. **** 9TABLES Table 1: Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 Prices) (in per cent) Growth Share in GVA Sector 2012- 2013- 2014-15 2012- 2013- 2014- 13 14 (PE) 13 14 15 (PE) Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1.2 3.7 0.2 17.7 17.2 16.1 Industry 2.4 4.5 6.1 32.3 31.7 31.4 Mining & quarrying -0.2 5.4 2.4 3.0 3.0 2.9 Manufacturing 6.2 5.3 7.1 18.3 18.1 18.1 Electricity, gas ,water supply & other 4.0 4.8 7.9 2.4 2.3 2.3 utility services Construction -4.3 2.5 4.8 8.6 8.3 8.1 Services 8.0 9.1 10.2 50.0 51.1 52.5 Trade, hotels, transport, communication 9.6 11.1 10.7 18 18.8 19.4 and services related to broadcasting Financial, real estate & professional 8.8 7.9 11.5 19.5 19.7 20.5 services Public administration, defence and Other 4.7 7.9 7.2 12.5 12.6 12.6 Services GVA at basic prices 4.9 6.6 7.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 GDP at market prices 5.1 6.9 7.3 --- --- --- Source: CSO. PE: Provisional Estimates. Table 2: Quarter-wise Growth of GVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (per cent) 2013-14 2014-15 Sectors Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2.7 3.6 3.8 4.4 2.6 2.1 -1.1 -1.4 Industry 4.8 4.0 5.0 4.3 7.7 7.6 3.6 5.6 Mining & quarrying 0.8 4.5 4.2 11.5 4.3 1.4 1.5 2.3 Manufacturing 7.2 3.8 5.9 4.4 8.4 7.9 3.6 8.4 Electricity, gas ,water supply & other utility services 2.8 6.5 3.9 5.9 10.1 8.7 8.7 4.2 Construction 1.5 3.5 3.8 1.2 6.5 8.7 3.1 1.4 Services 10.2 10.6 9.1 6.4 8.7 10.4 12.5 9.2 Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting 10.3 11.9 12.4 9.9 12.1 8.9 7.4 14.1 Financial, real estate & professional services 7.7 11.9 5.7 5.5 9.3 13.5 13.3 10.2 Public administration, defence and Other Services 14.4 6.9 9.1 2.4 2.8 7.1 19.7 0.1 GVA at basic prices 7.2 7.5 6.6 5.3 7.4 8.4 6.8 6.1 Source: CSO. 10Table 3: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (3rd Adv. Est.) Crops Production (in Million Tonnes) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 (Final) (Final) (3rd AE) Total Foodgrains 257.1 265.6 251.1 Rice 105.2 106.7 102.5 Wheat 93.5 95.9 90.8 Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 40.4 Total Pulses 18.3 19.8 17.4 Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 27.4 Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 356.6 Cotton 34.2 35.9 35.3 Table 4 : Procurement in Million Tonnes Crop 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Rice# 34.2 35.0 34.0 31.8 29.9* -- Wheat@ 22.5 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0 27.5⃰ Total 56.7 63.4 72.2 56.9 58.0 27.5 # Kharip Marketing Season (October-September), @ Rabi Marketing Season (April-March), * Position as on 19.06.2015 Table 5: Off-Take and Stocks of Food Grains (Million Tonnes) Off-take Stocks 2012- 2013- 2014-15 June 1, Crops 2011-12 June 1, 2014 13 14 (Till April) 2015 1. Rice 32.1 32.6 29.2 4.0 20.7 16.5 2. Unmilled Paddy# 12.4 9.2 3. Converted Unmilled 7.6 6.2 Paddy in terms of Rice 4. Wheat 24.3 33.2 30.6 3.9 41.6 40.4 Total (Rice & 56.4 65.9 59.8 8.0 69.8 63.0 Wheat)(1+3+4) # Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state agencies in terms of rice. Table 6: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production Industry Group April-March, 2013-14 April-March, 2014-15 April-2014 April-2015 General index -0.1 2.8 3.7 4.1 Mining -0.6 1.4 1.7 0.6 Manufacturing -0.8 2.3 3.0 5.1 Electricity 6.1 8.4 11.9 -0.5 Basic goods 2.1 6.9 8.6 2.8 Capital goods -3.6 6.3 13.4 11.1 Intermediate goods 3.1 1.7 3.0 3.3 Consumer goods -2.8 -3.4 -4.8 3.1 Durables -12.3 -12.5 -7.7 1.3 Non-durables 4.8 2.8 -2.7 4.4 11Table 7: Production Growth (Per Cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries (Year-On-Year) Industry Group April-March, April-March, April-2014 April-2015 2013-14 2014-15 Coal 1.3 8.4 6.2 7.9 Crude oil -0.2 -0.9 -0.1 -2.7 Natural Gas -13.0 -5.2 -7.7 -3.6 Refinery Products 1.5 0.4 -1.9 -2.9 Fertilizers 1.5 -0.1 11.1 -0.04 Steel 11.5 0.8 6.9 0.6 Cement 3.1 5.7 7.3 -2.4 Electricity 6.0 8.1 11.9 -1.1 Overall growth 4.2 3.6 5.7 -0.4 Table 8: Money Stock: Components and Sources Item Outstanding as on Variation over (%) 2015 Financial Year-on- (Rupees Billion) Year so far Year Mar. 31 May 29 2014- 2015- 2014 2015 15 16 M3 105,756.8 108,392.8 2.6 2.5 13.2 11.0 Components (1.1+1.2+1.3+1.4) Currency with the Public 13,869.9 14,457.7 5.1 4.2 11.3 10.4 Demand Deposits with Banks 8,963.5 9,123.3 4.2 1.8 14.0 7.8 Time Deposits with Banks 82,777.5 84,696.7 2.0 2.3 13.5 11.3 ‘Other’ Deposits with Reserve 145.9 115.1 7.8 –21.1 –51.4 443.1 Bank Sources (2.1+2.2+2.3+2.4-2.5) Net Bank Credit to Government 30,151.2 31,857.7 1.8 5.7 9.0 2.8 Reserve Bank 3,734.1 4,235.6 Other Banks 26,417.1 27,622.1 3.5 4.6 10.5 13.7 Bank Credit to Commercial 70,558.0 71,150.9 0.9 0.8 12.3 9.4 Sector Reserve Bank 148.5 64.2 Other Banks 70,409.6 71,086.6 0.9 1.0 12.3 9.5 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of 22,021.1 23,099.7 1.0 4.9 16.2 18.8 Banking Sector Government's Currency 194.4 194.4 2.1 – 12.6 9.9 Liabilities to the Public Banking Sector's Net Non- 17,168.0 17,909.8 –6.2 4.3 6.1 –0.3 Monetary Liabilities Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 7,941.6 8,569.4 –2.0 7.9 12.5 3.7 of RBI Source: RBI 12Table 9: Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India (Rupees Billion) Item Outstanding Outstanding Outstanding Outstanding Variation over as on May as on May as on Mar. as on May (%) 31, 2013 30, 2014 20, 2015 29, 2015 Year-on-Year 2014 2015 Bank Credit 53687.8 60415.2 65,646.8 66334.2 12.5 9.8 Non-Food credit 52507.4 59249.5 64,702.6 65168.8 12.8 10.0 Aggregate deposits 69495.3 78835.9 85,856.4 87892.7 13.4 11.5 Investments in 20826.2 22924.9 25,052.4 26239.2 10.1 14.5 Government. And other approved securities Source: RBI Table 10: Ratios and Rates( in percent) Item/Week Ended 2014 2015 May 30 May 29 Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00 4.00 Statutory Liquidity Ratio 23.00 21.50 Policy Repo Rate 8.00 7.50 Reverse Repo Rate 7.00 6.50 Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate 9.00 8.50 Bank Rate 9.00 8.50 Base Rate 10.00/10.25 9.75/10.25 Term Deposit Rate >1 Year 8.00/9.05 8.00/8.50 Savings Deposit Rate 4.00 4.00 Call Money Rate (Weighted Average) 7.78 7.52 Table 11: Exports and Imports (in US$ million) Item 2013-14 2014-15 2014-15 2015-16 2014-15 2015-16 % Change in April-May May (P) May 2015 Exports 314416 309567 53633 44401 27999 22347 -20.2 Imports 450214 447522 74953 65800 39233 32753 -16.5 Oil imports 164770 138323 27443 15982 14465 8539 -41.0 Non-Oil 285443 309199 47511 49818 24768 24214 -2.2 imports Trade -135798 -137955 -21321 21399 -11235 -10406 7.4 Balance 13Table 12: Foreign Currency Assets At the end of (Over last year) Amount Variations (Rupees (US Dollar (Rupees (US Dollar Billion) Million) Billion) Million) 2012-13 14126 259726 821 -343 2013-14 16609 276359 2483 16633 2014-15 19855 317324 3246 40964 2014-15 (Over last Month) April 17118 283707 509 7348 May 16842 285292 -276 1585 June 17459 289320 617 4029 July 17693 292510 234 3190 August 17685 291393 -9 -1117 September 17770 288005 85 -3388 October 17862 290366 93 2361 November 18039 290822 177 456 December 18723 295947 684 5125 January 18747 303325 24 7378 February 19305 312200 558 8875 March 19855 317324 550 5123 2015-16 April 20538 327153 684 9830 20865 327820 327 667 May Source: RBI Table 13 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency* US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro March 2011 44.9684 72.7070 0.5498 62.9660 March, 2012 50.3213 79.6549 0.6103 66.4807 March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951 March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621 2014-15 April 2014 60.3566 101.0794 0.5886 83.3495 May 2014 59.3050 99.9398 0.5828 81.4886 June 2014 59.7307 100.9836 0.5853 81.2410 July 2014 60.0586 102.6220 0.5907 81.3943 August 2014 60.8952 101.8085 0.5917 81.1423 September 2014 60.8649 99.3131 0.5677 78.6014 October 2014 61.3420 98.7168 0.5687 77.9117 November 2014 61.7042 97.2826 0.5305 76.9857 December 2014 62.7530 98.1115 0.5260 77.3553 January 2015 62.2314 94.5460 0.5255 72.7682 February 2015 62.0376 95.0079 0.5233 70.4671 March 2015 62.4498 93.4422 0.5190 67.5548 April 2015 62.7532 93.9083 0.5253 67.7934 May 2015 63.8003 98.8205 0.5283 71.2135 * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis). ** Data from March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate. 14Table 14: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)* May-15 FY 2015-16 May-14 FY 2014-15 External Assistance (Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 1,399.3 2,847.0 1,048.5 2,202.6 2) Repayments 1,360.7 2,239.0 1,065.8 1,657.3 3) Interest Payments 151.8 420.2 168.3 446.4 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 38.6 608.0 -17.3 545.2 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -113.2 187.8 -185.6 98.8 External Assistance (Non-Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 138.1 245.4 448.4 2) Repayments 302.2 306.7 284.9 289.2 3) Interest Payments 22.1 25.0 20.7 22.7 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -302.2 -168.5 -39.5 159.2 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -324.3 -193.5 -60.2 136.5 Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 144.1 166.4 35.0 120.0 2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 144.1 166.4 35.0 120.0 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 144.1 166.4 35.0 120.0 Non-Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.9 2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.9 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.9 Grand Total 1) Gross Disbursements 1,543.4 3,151.5 1,331.8 2,773.8 2) Repayments 1,662.9 2,545.7 1,350.6 1,946.5 3) Interest Payments 173.9 445.2 189.0 469.1 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -119.5 605.8 -18.9 827.3 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -293.4 160.6 -207.9 358.3 *: Data are provisional. Table 15: Year-on-Year Global Inflation for Major Groups/Sub-Groups (Per cent) May-2014 March-2015 April-2015 May-2015 Energy 4.7 -46.6 -43.7 -39.5 Non-energy -2.4 -15.0 -15.2 -14.5 Agriculture -0.8 -16.0 -15.6 -16.0 Beverages 24.0 -13.7 -14.1 -11.2 Food -4.9 -17.4 -16.9 -19.0 Raw Materials 0.6 -13.3 -12.8 -9.9 Fertilizers -19.7 -5.0 -2.0 -4.2 Metals & Minerals -3.9 -13.5 -15.7 -12.1 Precious Metals -10.0 -13.8 -9.7 -8.5 15Table 16: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (per cent) WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI-NS Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012 Apr-2014 5.5 7.1 8.4 8.7 8.5 May-2014 6.2 7.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 Jun-2014 5.7 6.5 7.7 7.8 6.8 Jul-2014 5.4 7.2 8.0 8.1 7.4 Aug-2014 3.9 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.0 Sep-2014 2.4 6.3 6.9 7.1 5.6 Oct-2014 1.7 5.0 6.1 6.4 4.6 Nov-2014 -0.2 4.1 4.6 5.0 3.3 Dec-2014 -0.5 5.9 5.5 5.7 4.3 Jan-2015 -0.9 7.2 6.2 6.5 5.2 Feb-2015 -2.2 6.3 6.1 6.2 5.4 Mar-2015 -2.3 6.3 5.2 5.5 5.3 Apr-2015 -2.7 5.8 4.4 4.7 4.9 May-2015 -2.4 -- -- -- 5.0 Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI-New Series inflation for last one month are provisional. Table 17: Fiscal Indicators- Rolling Targets as Percentage of GDP (at current market prices) Provisional Budget Targets for Actuals Estimates 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Effective Revenue Deficit 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.0 Revenue Deficit 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.0 Fiscal Deficit 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 Gross Tax Revenue 9.8 10.3 10.5 10.7 Tax Revenue (net to Centre) 7.1 6.5 6.7 6.8 Non-Tax Revenue 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 Total Expenditure 13.0 12.6 12.1 11.6 Total outstanding liabilities at the end of the year --- 46.1 44.7 42.8 Notes: 1. The ratio to GDP at current market prices are based on the CSO’s National Accounts 2011-12 Series. 2. “Total outstanding liabilities” include external public debt at current exchange rates. For projections, constant exchange rates have been assumed. Liabilities do not include part of NSSF and total MSS liabilities which are not used for Central Government deficit. 16Table 18: Trends in Central Government Finances : April, (2015-16) Budget April Col.3 as Col.4 as Per cent change Estimates (` Crore) per per cent over preceding ( ` Crore) cent of of year 2014- 2015-16 2015-16 2014-15 2015-16@ 15 BE BE 2014- 2015- 15 16 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1.Revenue Receipts 1141575 6929 25313 0.6 2.2 -12.3 265.3 Gross tax revenue* 1449491 28794 34816 2.1 2.4 2.5 20.9 Tax (net to Centre) 919842 977 -2813 0.1 -0.3 -69.4 -387.9 Non Tax Revenue 221733 5952 28126 2.8 12.7 26.5 372.5 2.Capital Receipts 635902 113598 129304 18.8 20.3 21.2 13.8 of which Recovery of loans 10753 144 173 1.4 1.6 16.1 20.1 Other Receipts 69500 0 1608 0.0 2.3 - - Borrowings and other 555649 113454 127523 21.4 23.0 21.2 12.4 liabilities 3.Total Receipts (1+2) 1777477 120527 154617 6.7 8.7 18.6 28.3 4.Non-Plan 1312200 97500 119457 8.0 9.1 27.3 22.5 Expenditure (a)+(b) (a) Revenue Account 1206027 91769 104298 8.2 8.6 24.4 13.7 of which: Interest payments 456145 23284 16994 5.5 3.7 37.8 -27.0 Major Subsidies 243811 31779 41130 12.6 16.9 32.1 29.4 Pensions 88521 5507 9031 6.7 10.2 -12.2 64.0 (b) Capital Account 106173 5731 15159 5.4 14.3 101.4 164.5 5.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 465277 23027 35160 4.0 7.6 -8.2 52.7 (i) Revenue Account 330020 16315 24110 3.6 7.3 -21.1 47.8 (ii) Capital Account 135257 6712 11050 5.5 8.2 53.0 64.6 6.Total Expenditure 1777477 120527 154617 6.7 8.7 18.6 28.3 (4)+(5) (a)Revenue Expenditure 1 536047 108084 128408 6.9 8.4 14.5 18.8 (b) of which Grants for 110551 10112 18367 6.0 16.6 0.2 81.6 creation of Capital Assets (c)Capital Expenditure 241430 12443 26209 5.5 10.9 72.1 110.6 7.Revenue Deficit 394472 101155 103095 26.7 26.1 16.9 1.9 8.Effective Revenue 283921 91043 84728 43.3 29.8 19.1 -6.9 Deficit (7-6(b)) 9.Fiscal Deficit 555649 113454 127523 21.4 23.0 21.2 12.4 10.Primary Deficit 99504 90170 110529 86.6 111.1 17.5 22.6 Source: Controller General of Accounts. @ Provisional actuals figures. * Gross Tax Revenue is prior to devolution to the States. ****** 17