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Ministry of Finance
Department of Economic Affairs
Economic Division
4(8)/Ec. Dn. /2017
MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT
MAY 2018
*****
HIGHLIGHTS
The growth of GDP at constant prices for the fourth quarter of 2017-18 was 7.7 per cent, which is higher as
compared to the growth registered in previous six quarters.
The growth of GDP at constant prices for the year 2017-18 is estimated to be 6.7 per cent, as compared to
7.1 per cent in 2016-17.
The production of food-grains during 2017-18 is estimated at 279.5 million tonnes (third advance estimate),
as compared to 275.1 million tonnes in 2016-17 (final estimate). The total stocks of rice and wheat held by
FCI as on 1st June 2018 was 73.3 million tonnes compared to 62.2 million tonnes as on 1st June 2017.
IIP grew by 4.9 per cent in April 2018, as compared to a growth of 3.2 per cent recorded in April 2017. IIP
growth during 2017-18 was 4.3 per cent, as compared to growth of 4.6 per cent during 2016-17.
Production of Eight Core industries grew by 4.7 per cent in April 2018, as compared to 2.6 per cent in April
2017.
Growth of money supply (on year on year basis) as on 25th May 2018, stood at 10.7 per cent, as compared to
a growth of 6.6 per cent recorded as on 27th May 2017.
The value of merchandise exports and imports increased by 5.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively in US$
terms in April 2018 over April 2017.
India’s current account deficit as percentage of GDP was 1.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2017-18. Foreign
Exchange Reserves stood at US$ 412.8 billion as on 25th May 2018.
The CPI inflation increased to 4.9 per cent in May 2018 from 4.6 per cent in April 2018. The WPI inflation
increased to 4.4 per cent in May 2018 from 3.2 per cent in April 2018.
The budget estimate of the fiscal deficit for 2018-19 has been set at 3.3 per cent of GDP, as compared to 3.5
per cent in 2017-18(PA).
_________________________________
This report is based on the information received from Macro unit, Agriculture unit, Industry & Infrastructure unit,
Money & Banking unit, Price unit, Trade & BOP unit, EDMU, Public Finance unit of the Economic Division and Aid,
Accounts and Audit Division. The Report has been prepared by Shri Pradyut Kumar Pyne, Shri Narendra Jena
(Economic Officer), under the supervision of Shri Arvinder Singh Sachdeva (Senior Economic Adviser).
11. ECONOMIC GROWTH
The provisional estimates (PE) of national income released by Central Statistics Office (CSO) on 31st
May 2018, estimated the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant market prices for the
year 2017-18 to be 6.7 per cent (Figure 1 and Table 1).
The growth rate of GDP at constant
Figure 1: Growth rate of GDP and GVA (per cent)
market prices was 7.1 per cent (first (at constant prices)
revised estimate) in 2016-17 and 8.2 per GDP GVA
9.0
cent in 2015-16 (second revised
estimate). 8.0
The growth in Gross Value Added
7.0
(GVA) at constant basic prices for the
year 2017-18 is estimated to be 6.5 per 6.0
cent (PE). At the sectoral level,
5.0
agriculture, industry and services
sectors are estimated to grow at the rate
4.0
of 3.4 per cent, 5.5 per cent and 7.9 per 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
cent respectively in 2017-18.
Fig 2 : Quarterly growth of GDP and GVA (%)
As per the quarterly estimates, the (at constant prices)
GDP GVA
growth of GDP at constant prices for
10.0
fourth quarter (January-March) of 2017-
9.0
18 was 7.7 per cent, as compared to the
growth of 6.1 per cent recorded in the 8.0
corresponding quarter of the previous
7.0
year.
6.0
The upswing in the trend of quarterly
growth, which started in the second 5.0
quarter of 2017-18, sustained with an
4.0
even higher growth in third and fourth - Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
quarters (Figure 2 and Table 2).
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
The share of total final consumption in GDP at current prices in 2017-18 is estimated to be 70.5 per
cent, as compared to 69.9 per cent in 2016-17. The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed capital
formation to GDP) is estimated to be 28.5 per cent in 2017-18, which is the same as in previous two
years.
The saving rate (measured as a share of gross saving to GDP) for the year 2016-17 was 30.0 per cent,
as compared to 31.3 per cent in 2015-16. The investment rate (measured as a share of gross capital
formation to GDP) was 30.6 per cent in 2016-17, as compared to 32.3 per cent in 2015-16.
2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT
Rainfall: There has been no deficiency in the cumulative rainfall received for the country as a whole
during the period 1st June 2018 to 18th June 2018. The actual rainfall received during this period has
been equal to the normal rainfall of 78.7 mm. Out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 2
subdivisions received large excess rainfall, 15 subdivisions received excess rainfall, 6 subdivisions
2received normal rainfall, 11 subdivisions received deficient rainfall and 2 subdivisions received large
deficient rainfall. No subdivision remained without rainfall during the period.
Fig 3 : Production of food-grains
(in million tonnes)
All India production of food-grains:
300
As per the 3rd Advance Estimates (AE) Kharif Rabi
250
released by Ministry of Agriculture &
Farmers Welfare on 16th May 2018, the 200
production of food-grains during 2017- 150
18 is estimated at 279.5 million tonnes 100
compared to 275.1 million tonnes in
50
2016-17 (Final Estimate) (Figure 3 and
0
Table 3).
Procurement: Procurement of Rice as on 31st May 2018 during Kharif Marketing Season 2017-18
was 33.5 million tonnes, whereas procurement of wheat during Rabi Marketing Season 2018-19 was
34.2 million tonnes (Table 4).
Offtake: The offtake of rice all schemes during the month of April 2018 has been 25.83 lakh tonnes.
This comprises 24.52 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month
of May 2018) and 1.31 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total offtake has
been 17.87 lakh tonnes comprising of 17.05 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the
allocation for the month of May 2018) and 0.82 lakh tonnes under other schemes. The cumulative
offtake of food-grains during 2018-19 (upto April) is 9.0 million tonnes (Table 5).
Stocks: The total stocks of rice and wheat held by FCI as on 1st June 2018 was 73.3 million tonnes
compared to 62.2 million tonnes as on 1st June 2017 (Table 6).
3. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
The general IIP grew by 4.9 per cent in April 2018, as compared to a growth of 3.2 per cent recorded
in April 2017. The cumulative growth of IIP for 2017-18 was 4.3 per cent, as compared to a growth
of 4.6 per cent recorded in 2016-17 (Table 7).
The production of the manufacturing
Fig 3: Index of Industrial Production growth (%)
sector grew by 5.2 per cent in April
Mining and Manufacturing
2018, as compared to the growth of 2.9
12.0
per cent in April 2017 (Figure 4). The IIP-General Manufacturing
10.0
manufacturing sector’s growth during
2017-18 was 4.5 per cent, as compared 8.0
to growth of 4.4 per cent during 2016- 6.0
17.
4.0
The production of the mining sector
2.0
grew by 5.1 per cent in April 2018.
0.0
During 2017-18, production of this
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during 2016-17.
3 In terms of use based classification, all sectors have registered positive growth in April 2018. Notably
capital goods production grew by 13.0 per cent in April 2018, as compared to a contraction of 4.8 per
cent recorded in April 2017. Infrastructure/construction goods sector registered a robust production
growth of 7.5 per cent in April 2018, as compared to a growth of 4.7 per cent in April 2017.
Performance of Eight Core Industries
Production of eight core infrastructure industries grew by 4.7 per cent in April 2018, as compared to
2.6 per cent in April 2017. During 2017-18, the production of eight core industries grew by 4.3 per
cent, as compared to the growth of 4.8 per cent in 2016-17 (Table 8).
The growth in cement production has
Fig. 5: Eight Core Industries -Production growth
rebounded since November 2017. (in per cent)
Production of this sector grew by 16.6
25.0
per cent in April 2018, as compared to Eight core - overall Steel Cement
20.0
a contraction of 5.2 per cent in April
15.0
2017 (Figure 5). During 2017-18,
10.0
cement production grew by 6.3 per
5.0
cent, as compared to a growth of (-) 1.2
0.0
per cent in 2016-17. 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Production of the steel sector increased
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-10.0
by 3.5 per cent in April 2018, as
-15.0
compared to a growth of 9.0 per cent in
-20.0
April 2017.
Coal production grew by 16.0 per cent in April 2018, as compared to a contraction of 3.3 per cent in
April 2017. Crude oil production contracted by 0.8 per cent and natural gas production increased by
7.4 per cent in April 2018.
Growth of production of petroleum refinery products was 2.7 per cent in April 2018, as compared to
a growth of 0.2 per cent in April 2017. Production of fertilizers grew by 4.6 per cent in April 2018, as
compared to a growth of 6.2 per cent in April 2017.
Some Infrastructure Indicators
The number of telephone subscribers in India declined from 1206 million at the end of March 2018
to 1148 million at end April 2018. The overall tele-density in India declined from 92.8 per hundred
individuals at end of March 2018 to 88.3 at end April 2018; the urban tele-density was 156.5 and rural
tele-density was 56.7 at end April 2018.
The traffic handled at major ports grew by 2.4 per cent to 116.3 million tonnes in April-May 2018-19,
from 113.5 million tonnes in the corresponding period of previous year.
The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 3,43,898 MW at the end of May 2018, of
which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 64.8 per cent, 13.2 per cent,
20.1 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively.
As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation grew by 3.1 per cent in May 2018 (Year
on Year basis).
44. FINANCIAL MARKETS
Money and Banking
Money Supply: Growth of Money Supply (M3) on year on year basis (Y-o-Y) as on 25th May 2018
stood at 10.7 per cent, as compared to a growth of 6.6 per cent as on 27th May 2017. As regards the
components of money supply, the growth of ‘currency with the public’ was 31.1 per cent as on 25th
May 2018, as against a growth of (-) 14.9 per cent as on 27th May 2017. The growth rate of ‘time
deposits with banks’ was 8.0 per cent as on 25th May 2018, as against a growth of 8.8 per cent as on
27th May 2017. On the other hand, ‘demand deposits’ grew by 8.4 per cent as on 25th May 2018, as
against a growth of 21.4 per cent as on 27th May 2017. The details of sources of money supply are
given in Table 9.
Growth of Aggregate deposits of
Fig 6 : Growth of Bank Credit -as on (Y-o-Y)
Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) as (in per cent)
on 25th May 2018 was 8.5 per cent on
25.0
YoY basis, as compared to a growth of
10.4 per cent recorded as on 27th April
20.0
2017. In terms of bank credit, YoY
growth was 13.1 per cent as on 25th May 15.0
2018, as against a growth of 4.7 per cent
10.0
recorded as on 27th April 2017 (Figure
6). The YoY growth of investment in 5.0
Government and other approved
0.0
securities by SCBs was 5.3 per cent as
1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8
on 25th May 2018, as compared to a 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2
growth of 17.6 per cent recorded as on -r p A - p e S - b e F -lu J -c e D -y a M -tc O -r a M -g u A -n a J -n u J - v o N -r p A - p e S - b e F -lu J -c e D -y a M
27th April 2017.
Lending and deposit rates: The base lending rate as on 8th June 2018 was 8.70/9.45 per cent, as
compared to 9.10/9.60 per cent during the corresponding date a year ago. The term deposit rates for
above one year was 6.25/7.00 per cent as on 8th June 2018, as against 6.25/6.90 per cent during the
corresponding date a year ago.
5. EXTERNAL SECTOR
Merchandise Trade
Foreign trade: merchandise exports and
Fig 7 : Growth of merchandise exports and imports
imports during May 2018 increased by (in per cent)
20.2 per cent and 14.9 per cent 50 0
respectively in US$ terms. During May
40
2018, oil imports increased by 49.5 per
-50
30
cent and non-oil imports increased by 6.0
per cent over May 2017 (Table 10). 20
-100
During April-May 2018-19, the value of 10
merchandise exports and imports
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Trade Balance in US$ bn.(RHS) Exports Imports
cent respectively in April-May 2018-19.
5 The value of merchandise trade deficit in May 2018 was US$ 14.6 billion, higher as compared to the
level of US$ 13.8 billion in April 2017. During April-May 2018, merchandise trade deficit increased
to US$ 28.3 billion, as compared to US$ 27.1 billion in April-May 2017.
India’s Balance of Payments:
India’s current account deficit (CAD) Fig 8: Current Account Deficit
was US$ 13.0 billion (1.9 per cent of (as percentage of GDP)
2.5
GDP) in the fourth quarter (January –
March) of 2017-18, as compared to US$
2.0
2.6 billion (0.4 per cent of GDP) in the
corresponding quarter of 2016-17 1.5 AnnualCAD
(% of GDP)
(Figure 8). As compared to the previous
1.0
quarter, CAD moderated somewhat in
the fourth quarter of 2017-18. On
0.5
cumulative basis, CAD was US$ 48.7
billion (1.9 per cent of GDP) in 2017- 0.0
18, as compared to US$ 14.4 billion (0.6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
per cent of GDP) in 2016-17 (Table 11). -0.5 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
In 2017-18, the net invisibles balance (invisible receipts minus invisible payments) was US$ 111.3
billion, as compared to US$ 97.1 billion in the previous year (Table 11).
Net FDI inflows in 2017-18 moderated to US$ 30.3 billion from US$ 35.6 billion in 2016-17. Portfolio
investment recorded a net inflow of US$ 22.1 billion in 2017-18, as against an inflow of US$ 7.6 billion
a year ago.
Fig. 9 : Foreign Exchange Reserve
Foreign Exchange Reserves: Foreign
(in US$ billion)
exchange reserves stood at US$ 412.8 450
billion at 25th May 2018, as compared to
410
US$ 424.5 billion at end-March 2018
(Table 12 and Figure 9). 370
Gold, RTP & SDRs
330
Foreign
In 2017-18, there was an accretion of
Currency
290
US$ 43.6 billion to the foreign exchange Assets
reserves as compared with US$ 21.6
250
billion a year ago (on a BoP basis) 4 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 1
(Table 11).
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Note: RTP: Reserve Tranche Position, SDRs: Special Drawing Rights
Fig. 10: Movement of Exchange Rate
( `per unit of US $ )
Exchange Rate:
70
The rupee depreciated against the US
68
dollar (Figure 10), and Japanese Yen
66
While appreciating against Pound
sterling, and Euro in May 2018 over the 64
previous month of April 2018. (Table 62
13). 60
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6External Debt:
Fig. 11 : India's External Debt
(in US$ billion)
India’s external debt stood at US$ 529.7
550
billion at end-March 2018, recording an
increase of 12.4 per cent over the level
at end-March 2017. Long-term debt was 400
US$ 427.5 billion at end-March 2018, as
compared to US$ 383.2 billion at end-
250
March 2017. Short-term external debt
Long term debt
(by original maturity) was US$ 102.2
billion at end-March 2018, as compared 100
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6. INFLATION
Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPIs):
The all India Consumer Price Index – Combined (CPI-C) inflation increased to 4.9 per cent in May
2018 from 4.6 per cent in April 2018. Food inflation based on Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI)
increased to 3.1 per cent in May 2018 from 2.8 per cent in April 2018 due to increase in prices of
cereals & products, oils & fats, fruits and vegetables. CPI Fuel and light inflation for May 2018
increased to 5.8 per cent as compared to 5.2 per cent in April 2018.
Headline inflation based on Consumer Price Index (Combined) for 2017-18 averaged 3.6 per cent
(provisional), as compared to 4.5 per cent in 2016-17 and 4.9 per cent in 2015-16.
Inflation based on CPI-IW for April 2018 decreased to 4.0 per cent as compared to 4.4 in March
2018. Inflation based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL stood at 2.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively in
April 2018 (Table 15).
Inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI):
The WPI inflation increased to 4.4 per
Fig. 12 : Inflation in WPI and CPI
cent in May 2018 from 3.2 per cent in (in per cent)
April 2018. WPI food inflation (food
9.0
articles + food products) increased to
7.0
1.1 per cent in May 2018 from 0.7 per
5.0
cent in April 2018, mainly on account
3.0
of rise in prices of cereals, vegetables,
1.0
egg, meat & fish and edibles oils
-1.0 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
(Figure 12).
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Inflation in Fuel & power was 11.2 per -5.0
cent in May 2018, as compared to 7.9
-7.0
WPI All Commodities WPI Food
per cent in April 2018.
CPI Headline CPI Food (CFPI)
Inflation for Manufactured products increased to 3.7 per cent in May 2018 from 3.1 per cent in April
2018. Inflation for Non-food manufactured products (core) increased to 4.4 per cent in May 2018, as
compare to 3.6 per cent in April 2018.
The average WPI inflation stood at 2.9 per cent (provisional) in 2017-18, as compared to 1.7 per cent
in 2016-17.
7Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data)
Food inflation based on World Bank Food index stood at 4.5 per cent in May 2018, as compared to
6.3 per cent in April 2018. Energy prices as measured by the World Bank energy index increased by
46.3 per cent (Y-o-Y basis) and ‘metals & minerals’ inflation stood at 20.1 per cent in May 2018 (Table
16)
7. PUBLIC FINANCE
The Union Budget 2018-19 was
Fig 13 : Gross Fiscal Deficit
presented on 1st February 2018. As per
(as percentage of GDP)
the Provisional Actuals for 2017-18, the
4.5
fiscal deficit of the Central Government
4.0
as percentage of GDP is 3.5 per cent, as 3.5
against the corresponding budget 3.0
2.5
estimate of 3.2 per cent. The fiscal
2.0
deficit is budgeted to decline to 3.3 per 1.5
cent of GDP in 2018-19 (Figure 13). 1.0
0.5
The Budget estimates for revenue
0.0
deficit, as percentage of GDP at current 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
market price for 2018-19 is 2.2 per cent, (RE) (BE)
as compared to 2.6 per cent in 2017-18
(RE).
The growth in provisional figures for 2017-18 and growth figures for April 2018 are as follows
o Gross Tax Revenue (GTR) for the year 2017-18 was ` 19,19,182 crore, recorded a growth of
11.9 per cent over 2016-17. GTR for April 2018 was ` 1,13,330 crore, recorded a growth of
58.7 per cent over April 2017.
o Revenue Receipts (net to Centre) increased by 4.3 per cent (` 14,35,185 crore) in 2017-18 over
2016-17 and in April 2018, it increased by 101.4 per cent (` 70,657 crore) over April 2017.
o Tax revenue (net to Centre) increased to ` 12,42,662 crore, recorded a growth of 12.8 per cent over
2016-17. In April 2018, it increased by 149.8 per cent (` 57,533) over April 2017.
o Non-tax revenue declined by 29.9 per cent (` 1,92,523 crore) in 2017-18 over 2016-17, while
in April 2018, it increased by 8.9 per cent.
o Revenue expenditure in 2017-18 increased by 11.0 per cent, while in April 2018, it declined by
17.2 per cent.
o Capital expenditure in 2017-18 declined by 7.9 per cent, while it increased by 62.8 per cent in
April 2018.
o Total expenditure for 2017-18 amounting ` 21,42,667 crore (increased by 8.3 per cent over
2016-17). In April 2018, total expenditure was ` 2,23,417 crore.
8. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN MAY 2018
The Union Cabinet approved for extending the investment limit from ` 7.5 lakhs to ` 15 lakhs as well
as extension of time limits for subscription from 4th May 2018 to 31st March, 2020 under the Pradhan
8Mantri Vaya Vandan Yojana as part of Government's commitment for financial inclusion and social
security.
The Union Cabinet approved the continuation of Pradhan Mantri Swasthya Suraksha Yojana beyond
12th Five Year Plan to 2019-20 to boost the expansion of healthcare infrastructure in the country with
an estimated outlay of ` 14,832 crore. Under this scheme, new AIIMS are established and
Government medical colleges are upgraded.
The Union Cabinet approved for setting up of a new All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS)
in Deoghar, Jharkhand with estimated outlay of ` 1103 crore under the Pradhan Mantri Swasthya
Suraksha Yojana.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved to providing financial assistance at the rate
of ` 5.50 per quintal of cane crushed in sugar season 2017-18 to sugar mills to offset the cost of cane,
in order to help sugar mills to clear cane dues of farmers.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved for expansion and upgradation of integrated
terminals at Chennai, Guwahati & Lucknow Airports, at a cost of ` 2467 crore, ` 1383 crore and `
1232 crore, respectively.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved for the Umbrella Scheme, "Green Revolution
– Krishonnati Yojana" in agriculture sector beyond 12th Five Year Plan for the period from 2017-18
to 2019-20 with the Central Share of ` 33,269.98 crore.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved an initial Corpus of ` 5,000 crore for setting
up of a dedicated “Micro Irrigation Fund” with NABARD under Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee
Yojana.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved for waiving of Penal Interest on Government
Loans to Visakhapatnam Port Trust and Paradip Port Trust.
*****
9TABLES
Table 1 : Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity and GDP at Market Prices (per cent)
Sectors Growth Rate at Constant Share in GVA at Current
(2011-12) Prices (%) Prices (%)
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2nd RE 1st RE PE 2nd RE 1st RE PE
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 0.6 6.3 3.4 17.7 17.9 17.1
Industry 9.8 6.8 5.5 29.8 29.3 29.1
Mining & quarrying 13.8 13.0 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.5
Manufacturing 12.8 7.9 5.7 16.8 16.8 16.7
Electricity, gas, water supply & other 4.7 9.2 7.2 2.7 2.6 2.6
utility services
Construction 3.7 1.3 5.7 7.9 7.4 7.4
Services 9.6 7.5 7.9 52.5 52.8 53.9
Trade, hotel, transport storage 10.3 7.2 8.0 18.3 18.2 18.5
Financial , real estate & prof. services 10.9 6.0 6.6 20.9 20.6 20.8
Public administration, defence and 6.1 10.7 10.0 13.2 13.9 14.5
other services
GVA at basic prices 8.1 7.1 6.5 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP at market prices 8.2 7.1 6.7 --- --- ---
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO).
Notes: 2nd RE: Second Revised Estimates, 1st RE: First Revised Estimates, PE: Provisional Estimates..
Table 2: Quarter-wise Growth of GVA and GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices (per cent)
Sectors 2016-17 2017-18
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 4.3 5.5 7.5 7.1 3.0 2.6 3.1 4.5
Industry 8.3 6.8 7.1 5.0 0.1 6.1 7.1 8.8
Mining & quarrying 10.5 9.1 12.1 18.8 1.7 6.9 1.4 2.7
Manufacturing 9.9 7.7 8.1 6.1 -1.8 7.1 8.5 9.1
Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services 12.4 7.1 9.5 8.1 7.1 7.7 6.1 7.7
Construction 3.0 3.8 2.8 -3.9
1.8 3.1 6.6 11.5
Services 9.4 7.9 6.5 6.3
9.5 6.8 7.7 7.7
Trade, hotel, transport, communication and 8.9 7.2 7.5 5.5 8.4 8.5 8.5 6.8
services related to broadcasting
Financial, real estate & professional services 10.5 8.3 2.8 1.0 8.4 6.1 6.9 5.0
Public administration, defence and other services 7.7 8.0 10.6 16.4 13.5 6.1 7.7 13.3
GVA at basic price 8.3 7.2 6.9 6.0 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.6
GDP at market prices 8.1 7.6 6.8 6.1 5.6 6.3 7.0 7.7
Source: CSO.
10Table 3 : Production of Major Agricultural Crops (3rdAdv. Est.)
Crops Production (Million Tonnes)
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
(Final) (3rdAE)
Total Food-grains 257.1 265.0 252.0 251.6 275.1 279.5
Rice 105.2 106.7 105.5 104.4 109.7 111.5
Wheat 93.5 95.9 86.5 92.3 98.5 98.6
Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 42.9 38.5 43.8 44.9
Total Pulses 18.3 19.3 17.2 16.4 23.1 24.5
Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 27.5 25.3 31.3 30.6
Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 362.3 348.4 306.1 355.1
Cotton# 34.2 35.9 34.8 30.0 32.6 34.9
Source: DES, DAC&FW, M/o Agriculture & Farmers Welfare.
Note: 3rdAE: 3rdAdvance Estimates, # Million bales of 170 kgs. each.
Table 4 : Procurement of Crops (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Rice# 34.0 31.8 32.0 34.2 38.1 33.5
Wheat@ 38.2 25.1 28.0 28.1 23.0 30.8 34.2
Total 72.2 56.9 60.2 62.3 61.1 64.3 34.2
Source: FCI and DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution.
Notes: Procurement of rice as on 31.05.2018.
# Kharif Marketing Season (October-September), @ Rabi Marketing Season (April-March)
Table 5 : Offtake of Food-grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19*
Rice 29.2 30.7 31.8 32.8 34.4 5.4
Wheat 30.6 25.2 31.8 29.1 24.8 3.6
Total 59.8 55.9 63.6 61.9 59.2 9.0
(Rice & Wheat)
Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution.
Note: *: upto April 2018
Table 6: Stocks of Food-grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops June 1, 2017 June 1, 2018
1. Rice 22.1 24.3
2. Unmilled Paddy# 10.1 7.9
3. Converted Unmilled Paddy in terms of 6.7 5.2
Rice
4. Wheat 33.4 43.8
Total (Rice & Wheat)(1+3+4) 62.2 73.3
Source: FCI
Notes: # Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state agencies in terms of rice.
11Table 7 : Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production (Base 2011-12)
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 April 2017 April 2018*
General 3.3 4.6 4.3 3.2 4.9
Sectoral
Mining 4.3 5.3 2.3 3.0 5.1
Manufacturing 2.9 4.4 4.5 2.9 5.2
Electricity 5.7 5.8 5.4 5.4 2.1
Use-based
Primary goods 5.0 4.9 3.7 3.0 3.1
Capital goods 3.0 3.2 3.9 -4.8 13.0
Intermediate goods 1.5 3.3 2.3 3.6 1.6
Infrastructure/ construction goods 2.8 3.9 5.6 4.7 7.5
Consumer durables 3.3 2.9 0.7 -0.7 4.3
Consumer non-durables 2.6 7.9 10.4 8.8 7.0
Source: CSO.
Note: * : Figures for March 2018 are as per Quick Estimates.
Table 8 : Production growth (per cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries
Industry 2016-17 2017-18 April -2017 April -2018
Coal 3.2 2.6 -3.3 16.0
Crude oil -2.5 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8
Natural Gas -1.0 2.9 2.0 7.4
Refinery Products 4.9 4.6 0.2 2.7
Fertilizers 0.2 0.03 6.2 4.6
Steel 10.7 5.6 9.0 3.5
Cement -1.2 6.3 -5.2 16.6
Electricity 5.8 5.3 5.3 2.2
Overall growth 4.8 4.3 2.6 4.7
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, DIPP (Ministry of Commerce & Industry).
Table 9 : Broad Money - Sources
(₹ Billion)
Item Outstanding as on Growth* as on
2018 27th May 25th May
2017 2018
31st March 25th May % %
M3 1,40,114.1 1,40,283.6 6.6 10.7
Sources
Net Bank Credit to Government 40,147.3 42,127.3 15.4 2.6
Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 92,389.0 91,510.7 4.4 12.5
Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector 28,946.2 29,482.8 1.9 13.2
Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public 256.5 257.0 12.8 1.8
Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 21,624.9 23,094.2 8.0 5.0
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
Note: * : Year on Year growth.
12Table 10 : Exports and Imports (US$ billion)
Item 2017-18 May Growth April-May Growth
(%) (%)
2017 2018 2017 2018
Exports 303.3 24.0 28.9 20.2 48.7 54.8 12.6
Imports 464.7 37.9 43.5 14.9 75.8 83.1 9.7
Oil Imports 108.6 7.7 11.5 49.4 15.0 21.9 45.6
Non-Oil 356.1 30.2 32.0 6.0 60.7 61.2 0.8
Imports
Trade Deficit 161.4 13.9 14.6 -- 27.1 28.3 --
Source: Provisional data as per the Press Release of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry;
Note: P: Provisional
Table 11 : Balance of Payments: (US$ billion)
Items 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
(Jan-Mar) (Jan-Mar)
Merchandise Exports 280.1 309.0 77.4 82.2
Merchandise Imports 392.6 469.0 107.1 123.8
Trade Balance -112.4 -160.0 -29.7 -41.6
Net Invisibles 97.1 111.3 26.7 28.6
Current Account Balance -15.3 -48.7 -3.1 -13.1
Commercial Borrowings (MT & LT) -601 -0.2 -0.9 1.0
Foreign Investment (Net) 43.2 52.4 15.8 8.7
Foreign Direct Investment (Net) 35.6 30.3 5.0 6.4
Foreign Portfolio Investment (Net) 7.6 22.1 10.8 2.3
Capital Account Balance (including error & omission) 36.8 92.3 10.8 26.3
Change in Reserves (Increase - / Decrease +) -21.6 -43.6 -7.3 -13.2
Trade balance/GDP (%) -4.9 -6.1 -4.9 -5.9
Net Invisible Balance / GDP (%) 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1
Current Account Balance/ GDP (%) -0.6 -1.9 -0.4 -1.9
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
13Table 12 : Foreign Exchange Reserves (in Billion)
End of Financial Year Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation
(Rupees ) (US Dollar) (Rupees ) (US Dollar )
At the end of year (Variation over last year)
2013-14 18284 304.2 2400 12.2
2014-15 21376 341.6 3093 37.4
2015-16 23787 360.2 2411 18.6
2016-17 23982 370.0 195 9.8
2017-18 27609 424.5 3627 54.6
At the end of month (Variation over last month)
2017-18
April 2017 23968 373.3 -14 3.4
May 2017 24529 380.1 561 6.8
June 2017 25019 386.5 489 6.4
July 2017 25221 393.7 202 7.1
August 2017 25463 397.8 243 4.2
September 2017 26149 400.2 686 2.4
October 2017 25854 399.2 -295 -1.0
November 2017 25894 401.9 40 2.7
December 2017 26148 409.1 254 7.1
January 2018 26897 422.4 749 13.3
February 2018 27400 421.0 503 -1.4
March 2018 27609 424.5 209 3.5
2018-19
April 2018 28073 420.5 464 -4.0
May 2018* 28135 412.8 62 -7.7
Source: Reserve Bank of India,
Note: * : As on 25th May 2018
Table 13 : Rupees per unit of foreign currency*
Financial Year US dollar Pound sterling Euro Japanese yen
2013-14** 60.5019 96.3058 81.1745 0.6040
2014-15 61.1436 98.5730 77.5210 0.5583
2015-16 65.4647 98.5730 72.2907 0.5459
2016-17 67.0731 87.6952 73.6141 0.6204
2017-18 64.4551 85.5128 75.4379 0.5816
Monthly
April 2017 64.5071 81.5426 69.1656 0.5857
May 2017 64.4248 83.2101 71.2258 0.5745
June 2017 64.4430 82.5126 72.4139 0.5814
July 2017 64.4559 83.7544 74.2036 0.5734
August 2017 63.9684 83.0433 75.5956 0.5822
September 2017 64.4409 85.7254 76.7891 0.5822
October 2017 65.0813 85.9151 76.4800 0.5764
November 2017 64.8626 85.7741 76.1211 0.5749
December 2017 64.2423 86.1115 75.9975 0.5688
January 2018 63.6369 87.6509 77.4493 0.5726
February 2018 64.3738 90.0763 79.5625 0.5963
March 2018 65.0213 90.8382 80.2499 0.6134
2018-19
April 2018 65.6363 92.5691 80.6612 0.6102
May 2018 67.5394 90.9732 79.8248 0.6155
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
Notes: * : FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis),
** : Data from March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate.
14Table 14 : External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)*
May-2017 2017-18 May -2018 2018-19
(April-May) (April-May)
External Assistance (Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 3,198.8 5,362.8 2,549.1 4,997.8
2) Repayments 1,127.2 2,453.3 1,754.3 2,869.6
3) Interest Payments 190.5 625.6 369.0 776.4
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 2,071.7 2,909.6 794.8 2,128.1
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 1,881.2 2,283.9 425.8 1,351.7
External Assistance (Non-Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 149.8 267.8 59.5 59.5
2) Repayments 322.2 357.6 2.6 33.6
3) Interest Payments 111.8 117.4 0.4 11.4
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -172.4 -89.8 56.9 25.9
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -284.2 -207.2 56.5 14.5
Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 3.9 26.6 9.8 27.5
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 3.9 26.6 9.8 27.5
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 3.9 26.6 9.8 27.5
Non-Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Grand Total
1) Gross Disbursements 3,352.5 5,657.2 2,618.3 5,084.7
2) Repayments 1,449.4 2,810.8 1,756.9 2,903.2
3) Interest Payments 302.3 743.0 369.5 787.8
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 1,903.1 2,846.3 861.5 2,181.5
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 1,600.8 2,103.3 492.0 1,393.7
Source: Office of the Controller of Aid, Accounts and Audit, Ministry of Finance.
Note: * : Data are provisional.
15Table 15 : Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (per cent)
WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI-C
Base : 2011-12 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012
2014-15 1.2 6.3 6.6 6.9 5.9
2015-16 -3.7 5.6 4.4 4.6 4.9
2016-17 1.7 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5
2017-18 (P) 2.9 3.1 2.2 2.3 3.6
Apr-17 3.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 3.0
May-17 2.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.2
Jun-17 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.5
Jul-17 1.9 1.8 0.8 1.0 2.4
Aug-17 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.2 3.3
Sep-17 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.5 3.3
Oct-17 3.7 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.6
Nov-17 4.0 4.0 3.1 3.1 4.9
Dec-17 3.6 4.0 2.7 2.8 5.2
Jan-18 3.0 5.1 2.9 2.9 5.1
Feb-18 2.7 4.7 2.3 2.5 4.4
Mar-18 2.5 4.4 2.4 2.5 4.3
Apr-18 3.2 4.0 2.1 2.3 4.6
May-18 4.4 - - - 4.9
Source: Office of Economic Adviser- DIPP, Labour Bureau and Central Statistics Office.
Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI-C inflation for last one month are provisional.
Table 16 : Year-on-Year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (per cent)
May-17 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18
Energy 13.7 23.9 30.6 46.3
Non-energy 2.5 3.7 8.3 8.5
Agriculture -2.5 1.6 4.8 3.6
Beverages -9.3 -2.6 1.3 3.5
Food -2.1 2.1 6.3 4.5
Raw Materials 0.3 2.3 2.5 0.9
Fertilizers -12.3 -0.8 9.3 14.6
Metals & Minerals 20.4 9.2 16.8 20.1
Precious Metals -1.4 5.0 3.0 3.5
Source: World Bank.
16Table 17 : Fiscal parameters of the Central Government ( ` crore )
2016-2017 (Actual) 2017-2018 (BE) 2017-2018 (PA) 2018-2019 (BE)
1. Revenue Receipts 1374203 1515771 1435185 1725738
2. Tax Revenue (Net to Centre) 1101372 1227014 1242662 1480649
3. Non-Tax Revenue 272831 288757 192523 245089
4. Capital Receipts 600991 630964 707482 716475
5. Recovery of Loans 17630 11933 15624 12199
6. Other Receipts 47743 72500 100195 80000
7. Borrowings and Other Liabilities 535618 546531 591663 624276
8. Total Receipts (1+4) 1975194 2146735 2142667 2442213
9. Total Expenditure (10+12) 1975194 2146735 2142667 2442213
10. On Revenue Account 1690584 1836934 1878963 2141772
11. Interest Payments 480714 523078 529243 575795
12. On Capital Account 284610 309801 263704 300441
13. Revenue Deficit (10-1) 316381 321163 443778 416034
(Per cent of GDP) 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.2
14. Fiscal Deficit (9-1-5-6) 535618 546531 591663 624276
(Per cent of GDP) 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.3
15. Primary Deficit (14-11) 54904 23453 62420 48481
(Per cent of GDP) 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3
Source: Union Budget 2018-19; Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance
Notes: BE: Budget estimate; PA: Provisional Actual.
17