Monthly Economic Review November 2014

Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division 4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT NOVEMBER 2014 ***** HIGHLIGHTS  The GDP growth in the first half of the 2014-15 is estimated at 5.5 per cent as against 4.9 per cent during the same period of previous year. GDP growth in the second quarter (July- September 2014) was estimated at 5.3 per cent as against 5.2 per cent in Q2 of 2013-14. At the sectoral level growth rates are 3.2 per cent for agriculture and allied sectors, 2.2 per cent for industry sector and 7.1 per cent for service sector in Q2 of 2014-15.  Food grains (rice and wheat) stocks held by FCI and State agencies were 49.5 million tonnes as on December 1, 2014 which is 17.1 per cent less than the level of 59.7 million tonnes as on December 1, 2013.  Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was (-) 4.2 per cent during October 2014 as compared to a decline of 1.2 in October 2013. During April-October 2014- 15, IIP growth was 1.9 per cent as compared to 0.2 per cent growth in April- October 2013- 14.  Eight core infrastructure industries registered 6.3 per cent growth in October 2014 as compared to decline of 0.1 per cent in October 2013. During April-October 2014-15, these sectors grew by 4.3 per cent as compared to 4.2 per cent growth during April-October 2013-14.  During 2014-15 (up to November 28, 2014) broad money (M ) increased by 7.3 per cent as 3 compared to 9.4 per cent during the corresponding period of the last year. The year-on- year growth, as on November 28, 2014 was 11.0 per cent as compared to 14.9 per cent in the previous year.  Exports and imports increased by 7.3 per cent and 26.8 per cent respectively, in USdollar terms during November 2014 over November 2013.  Foreign Currency Assets stood at US$ 293.2 billion at end-November 2014 as compared to US$ 264.7 billion at end-November 2013.  The rupee depreciated against US dollar and appreciated against Japanese yen, Pound sterling and Euro in the month of November 2014 over October 2014.  The WPI inflation for all commodities for the month of November2014 declined to 0.0 per cent from 1.8 per cent in October 2014.  Gross tax revenue revenue for the financial year 2014-15 (April-October) at ` 5,63,598 crore, recorded growth of 5.9 per cent over 2013-14.  As proportion of Budget estimate, fiscal deficit and revenue deficit during 2014-15(April- October) was 89.6 per cent and 98.5 per cent respectively. (Narendra Jena) Economic Officer jena.narendra@nic.in 1ECONOMIC GROWTH As per the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July- September) of 2014-15, released by CSO (on November 28, 2014), GDP growth at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices is estimated at 5.3 per cent as against 5.2 per cent in Q2 of 2013-14. Growth rate for the first quarter of 2014-15 was 5.7 per cent. The growth rate during the first half of 2014-15 stood at 5.5 per cent. At the sectoral level growth rates are 3.2 per cent for agriculture and allied sectors, 2.2 per cent for industry sector and 7.1 per cent for service sector in Q2 of 2014- 15. Table 1: Growth of GDP at factor cost by economic activity (at 2004-05 prices) (per cent) Growth Share in GDP Sector 2011- 2012- 2013- 2011- 2012- 2013- 12 13(1R) 14 (PE) 12 13(1R) 14 (PE) Agriculture, forestry & fishing 5.0 1.4 4.7 14.4 13.9 13.9 Industry 7.8 1.0 0.4 28.2 27.3 26.1 Mining & quarrying 0.1 -2.2 -1.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 Manufacturing 7.4 1.1 -0.7 16.3 15.8 14.9 Electricity, gas & water supply 8.4 2.3 5.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Construction 10.8 1.1 1.6 7.9 7.7 7.4 Services 6.6 7.0 6.8 57.4 58.8 59.9 Trade, hotels, transport & 4.3 5.1 3.0 26.7 26.9 26.4 communication Financing, insurance, real estate & 11.3 10.9 12.9 18.0 19.1 20.6 business services Community, social & personal 4.9 5.3 5.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 services GDP at factor cost 6.7 4.5 4.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 1R: 1st Revised Estimates; PE: Provisional Estimates. Source: CSO. Table 2: Quarterly Estimates of GDP Growth at Constant (2004-05) Prices (per cent) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Sectors Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1.8 1.8 0.8 1.6 4.0 5.0 3.7 6.3 3.8 3.2 Industry 0.3 -0.4 1.7 2.1 -0.4 2.6 -0.4 -0.2 4.2 2.2 Mining & quarrying -1.1 -0.1 -2.0 -4.8 -3.9 0.0 -1.2 -0.4 2.1 1.9 Manufacturing -1.1 0.0 2.5 3.0 -1.2 1.3 -1.5 -1.4 3.5 0.1 Electricity, gas & water supply 4.2 1.3 2.6 0.9 3.8 7.8 5.0 7.2 10.2 8.7 Construction 2.8 -1.9 1.0 2.4 1.1 4.4 0.6 0.7 4.8 4.6 Services 7.2 7.6 6.9 6.3 7.2 6.3 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.1 Trade, hotels, transport & 4.0 5.6 5.9 4.8 1.6 3.6 2.9 3.9 2.8 3.8 communication Financing, insurance, real 11.7 10.6 10.2 11.2 12.9 12.1 14.1 12.4 10.4 9.5 estate and business services Community, social & personal 7.6 7.4 4.0 2.8 10.6 3.6 5.7 3.3 9.1 9.6 services GDP at factor cost 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.7 5.2 4.6 4.6 5.7 5.3 Source: CSO. 2AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT Rainfall: With respect to rainfall situation in India, the year is categorized into four seasons: winter season (January-February); pre monsoon (March-May); south west monsoon (June-September) and post monsoon (October-December). South west monsoon accounts for more than 75 per cent of annual rainfall. The actual rainfall received during the period from 01.10.2014 to 17.12.2014 has been 83.8 mm as against the normal of 120.2 mm. Table 3 shows rabi area coverage as December 19, on 2014-15 and 2013-14. There has been a decline in the overall rabi coverage (-5.3 %) in 2014-15 vis-a-vis the corresponding period of 2013- 14. Table 3: Rabi Area Coverage – as on 19.12.2014 % change in 2014-15 Area Sown (in lakh hectare) Crops over 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2012-13 2013-14 Wheat 253.2 273.1 268.3 5.9 -1.8 Rice 1.7 2.2 2.2 27.6 1.8 Total Coarse Cereals 54.8 53.9 48.2 -12.0 -10.5 Jowar 37.5 35.4 29.7 -21.0 -16.2 Bajra 9.6 11.2 10.6 10.3 -5.5 Maize 7.0 6.6 7.2 2.9 8.6 Total Pulses 121.2 132.8 119.9 -1.1 -9.7 Gram 83.1 89.5 75.2 -9.5 -16.0 Lentil 13.5 14.6 14.5 7.4 -0.8 Fieldpea 7.2 7.7 8.2 14.0 6.6 Moongbean 1.6 2.6 2.9 80.1 13.3 Uradbean 3.7 4.3 5.0 35.1 16.1 Total Oilseeds 76.3 78.1 72.5 -5.0 -7.1 Rapeseed & Mustard 63.7 66.6 63.0 -1.0 -5.3 Groundnut 3.7 3.3 3.2 -13.6 -3.9 Sunflower 4.1 3.2 2.3 -43.8 -28.4 Total Rabi Area 507.3 540.0 511.1 0.8 -5.3 Source: DAC. All India production of food grains: As per the 1st advance estimates released by Ministry of Agriculture on 19.09.2014, production of total kharif foodgrains during 2014-15 is estimated at 3120.3 million tonnes compared to 129.3 million tonnes in 2013-14 and 117.2 million tonnes in 2012-13. Table 4: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (First Adv. Est.) Kharif Crops Production (in Million Tonnes) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Rice 85.6 92.3 88.0 Total Pulses 5.3 6.0 5.2 Pigeon Pea (Tur/Arhar) 2.8 3.0 2.7 Urdbean 1.1 1.3 1.2 Moongbean 0.7 0.9 0.7 Total Coarse Cereals 26.3 31.0 27.1 Jowar 2.6 2.6 1.6 Bajra 6.6 8.7 7.5 Maize 14.9 17.8 16.0 Total Oilseeds 18.8 24.0 19.7 Groundnut 3.8 5.6 5.0 Soyabean 12.6 15.7 11.8 Sugarcane 335.3 341.8 342.8 Cotton 33.4 35.3 34.6 Total Kharif Foodgrains 117.2 129.3 120.3 Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 19.12.2014 was 11.9 million tonnes during Kharif Marketing Season 2014-15 and procurement of wheat was 28.0 million tonnes during Rabi Marketing Season 2014-15. Table 5 : Procurement in Million Tonnes Crop 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Rice 34.2 35.0 34.0 31.8 11.9* Wheat 22.5 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0 Total 56.7 63.4 72.2 56.9 39.9 * Position as on 19.12.2014 Off-take: Off-take of rice during the month of September, 2014 was 32.9 lakh tonnes. This comprises 26.0 lakh tonnes under TPDS and 6.9 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total off-take was 24.2 lakh tonnes comprising of 19.9 lakh tonnes under TPDS and 4.3 lakh tonnes under other schemes. Stocks: Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on December 1, 2014 were 49.5 million tonnes, which is lower by 17.1 per cent compared to the level of 59.7 million tonnes as on December 1, 2013. Table 6: Off-take and stocks of food grains (Million Tonnes) Off-take Stocks 2012- 2013- 2014-15 Dec 1, Crops 2011-12 Dec 1, 2013 13 14 (Till Sep.) 2014 Rice 32.1 32.6 29.2 15.9 14.2 10.6 Unmilled Paddy# 21.5 16.9 Converted Unmilled 14.4 11.3 Paddy in terms of Rice Wheat 24.3 33.2 30.6 12.1 31.1 27.6 Total (Rice & Wheat) 56.4 65.9 59.8 27.9 59.7 49.5 Note: Buffer Norms for Rice & Wheat are 7.2 Million Tonnes & 14.0 Million Tonnes as on 1.10.2014 respectively. # Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state agencies in terms of rice. 4INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Table 7: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production (Year-on-Year) April-October, April-October, October, October, Industry Group 2013-14 2014-15 2013 2014 General index 0.2 1.9 -1.2 -4.2 Mining -2.6 2.4 -2.9 5.2 Manufacturing -0.1 0.7 -1.3 -7.6 Electricity 5.3 10.7 1.3 13.3 Basic goods 1.1 7.6 -0.4 5.8 Capital goods -0.2 4.8 2.5 -2.3 Intermediate goods 2.7 1.6 2.7 -3.1 Consumer goods -1.7 -6.3 -5.0 -18.6 Durables -11.3 -16.0 -12.0 -35.2 Non-durables 6.8 1.0 1.9 -4.3 Table 8: Production growth (per cent) in core infrastructure-supportive industries (Year- on-Year) April-October, April-October. October, October, Industry 2013-14 2014-15 2013 2014 Coal 1.3 8.5 -3.5 16.2 Crude oil -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 1.0 Natural Gas -16.1 -5.6 -13.5 -4.2 Refinery Products 3.5 -1.7 -5.0 4.2 Fertilizers 2.7 -1.1 4.1 -7.0 Steel 11.9 2.3 5.8 2.3 Cement 4.0 8.1 0.9 -1.0 Electricity 5.1 10.5 1.3 13.2 Overall growth 4.2 4.3 -0.1 6.3 5MONEY AND BANKING Broad money (M ) for 2014-15 (up to November 28, 2014) increased by 7.3 per cent as compared 3 to 9.4 per cent during the corresponding period of the last year. The year-on-year growth, as on November 28, 2014 was 11.0 per cent as compared to 14.9 per cent in the previous year. Table 9: Money Stock: Components and Sources (as on November 28, 2014) Variation over (Per cent) Outstanding as on (`. billion) Financial Year Item Year-on-Year so far Mar. 31, Nov-28. 2013- 2014- 2013 2014 2014 2014 14 15 M3 94,973.3 1,01,918.6 9.4 7.3 14.9 11 Components Currency with the Public 12,483.4 13,069.2 5.9 4.7 11.1 8.2 Demand Deposits with Banks 8,043.9 8,679.1 –0.7 7.9 6.1 16 Time Deposits with Banks 74,426.3 80,090.8 11.2 7.6 16.5 10.9 ‘Other’ Deposits with 19.7 79.5 145.2 304.5 234.4 0.1 Reserve Bank Sources Net Bank Credit to Government 30,386.0 31,167.0 10.8 2.6 14.9 3.8 Reserve Bank 6,987.1 5,568.2 Other Banks 23,398.9 25,598.9 10.6 9.4 12.9 9.2 Bank Credit to Commercial 64,424.8 67,247.7 7.3 4.4 13.7 10.5 Sector Reserve Bank 88.4 42.1 Other Banks 64,336.4 67,205.5 7.3 4.5 13.8 10.5 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of 19,239.5 20,382.0 14.4 5.9 15.7 8.8 Banking Sector Government's Currency 173.4 182.6 9.1 5.3 13.7 9.1 Liabilities to the Public Banking Sector's Net Non- 19,250.4 17,060.70 9.4 –11.4 12 –4.8 Monetary Liabilities Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 8,433.2 8,323.9 27.6 –1.3 24.2 –5.8 of RBI Source: RBI During the financial year 2014-15 (up to November 28, 2014) reserve money (M ) increased by 0.9 0 per cent as compared to an increase of 6.7 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. The year-on-year variation revealed an increase of 8.2 per cent (up to November 28, 2014) compared to an increase of 12.1 per cent on the corresponding date of the previous year. An important source of reserve money, namely, net foreign exchange assets (NFA) of the RBI (up to November 28, 2014), showed an increase of 7.6 per cent compared to an increase of 14.4 per cent on the corresponding date of the last year. 6Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs): business in India During 2014-15 (up to November 28, 2014), bank credit registered an increase of 4.8 per cent, as compared to an increase of 7.3 per cent during the corresponding period last year. The year-on- year variation revealed an increase of 11.3 per cent as compared to an increase of 13.9 per cent during the corresponding date of the previous year. Table 10: Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India (as on November 28, 2014) Items 2014-15 Variation over (%) Outstanding as on Financial year Year-on-year (` billion) so far 2013- 2014- 2013 2014 March 28, November 14 15 2014 28, 2014 Bank Credit 60131 62844 7.3 4.8 13.9 11.3 Non-food credit 59146 61769 7.7 4.4 14.6 11.1 Aggregate deposits 77394 83171 10.3 7.9 15.6 11.7 Investments in Government, and 22217 24299 10.5 9.8 12.7 9.6 other approved securities Source: RBI Table 11 : Policy Rates/Interest Rates (per cent per annum) Item / Week Ended 2013 2014 November 29 November 28 Cash Reserve Ratio (per cent)(1) 4.00 4.00 Bank Rate 8.75 9.00 Repo Rate 7.75 8.00 Reverse Repo Rate 6.75 7.00 Prime Lending Rate(2) 10.00 / 10.25 10.00 / 10.25 Deposit Rate(3) 8.00 / 9.05 8.00 / 9.00 Call Money Rate (Weighted 8.27 7.90 Average)(4) (1) Cash Reserve Ratio relates to Scheduled Commercial Banks (excluding Regional Rural Banks). (2) Prime Lending Rate relates to five major Banks. (3) Deposit Rate relates to major Banks for term deposits of more than one year maturity. (4) Data cover 90-95 per cent of total transactions reported by participants. Source: RBI As on November 28, 2014, Bank Rate was 9.00 per cent as compared to 8.75 per cent in the corresponding date of last year. 7EXTERNAL SECTOR Foreign trade: Exports and imports increased by 7.3 per cent and 26.8 per cent respectively, in US dollar terms during November 2014 over November 2013. Oil imports declined by 9.7 per cent and non-oil imports increased by 49.6 per cent during November 2014 over November2013. Table 12: Exports and imports (in US$ million) Item 2011- 2012- 2013- April-November(P) November (P) % Change 12 13 14 2013-14 2014-15 2013 2014 in November 2014 Exports 305964 300401 314405 205437 215756 24202 25961 7.3 Imports 489320 490737 450200 302327 316373 33773 42822 26.8 Oil 154968 164041 164765 108285 106558 12979 11716 -9.7 iNmopno-Ortisl 334352 326696 285435 194042 209815 20794 31106 49.6 imTrpaodrets -183356 -190336 -135794 -96890 -100617 -9571 -16861 79.2 balance Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, P: Provisional. Table 13: Foreign Currency Assets Amount Variation `crore US$ million ` crore US$ million At the end of (over last year) March, 2008 1196023 299230 359426 107306 March, 2009 1231340 241676 35317 -57554 March, 2010 1150778 254935 -80562 13259 March, 2011 1225999 274580 75221 19645 March, 2012 1333954 260742 107955 -13838 March, 2013 1418339 260775 84385 33 March, 2014 1672942 278361 254603 17586 2014-15 (over last month) April, 2014 1723905 285710 50963 7349 May, 2014 1695975 287290 -27930 1580 June, 2014 1750649 291322 54674 4032 July 2014 1781343 294504 30694 3182 August 2014 1780496 293380 -847 -1124 September 2014 1791486 290360 10990 -3020 October 2014 1800667 292719 9181 2359 November 2014 1818427 293168 17760 449 Source: RBI. Exchange rate: The rupee depreciated by 0.6 per cent against US dollar and appreciated by 1.5 per cent against Pound sterling, by 1.2 per cent against Euro and by 7.2 per cent against Japanese yen in the month of November 2014 over October 2014. 8Table 14 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency* US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro March, 2010 45.4965 68.4360 0.5018 61.7653 March 2011 44.9684 72.7070 0.5498 62.9660 March, 2012 50.3213 79.6549 0.6103 66.4807 March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951 March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621 2014-15 April 2014 60.3566 101.0794 0.5886 83.3495 May 2014 59.3050 99.9398 0.5828 81.4886 June 2014 59.7307 100.9836 0.5853 81.2410 July 2014 60.0586 102.6220 0.5907 81.3943 August 2014 60.8396 101.8085 0.5917 81.1 423 September 2014 60.8651 99.3131 0.5677 78.6014 October 2014 61.3420 98.7168 0.5687 77.9117 November 2014 61.7042 97.2826 0.5305 76.9857 * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis). ** Data from March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate. 9External assistance and debt service payments: Gross external assistance during April- November 2014 stood at ` 19,357.76 crore as compared to ` 18,148.89 crore during the corresponding period of the previous year. Net disbursement stood at ` 4,317.36 crore during April- November 2014 as compared to ` 5,405.96 crore during April- November 2013. Table 15: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (`crore)* 2014-15 up 2013-14 up November to November to 2014 November, 2013 November, 2014 2013 External Assistance (Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 1,777.1 16,110.8 1,419.3 12,981.6 2) Repayments 1,502.0 12,313.3 1,410.6 10,879.0 3) Interest Payments 174.2 2,271.2 170.2 2,253.6 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 275.1 3,797.5 8.7 2,102.6 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 100.9 1,526.3 -161.4 -151.0 External Assistance (Non-Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 258.7 2,497.1 217.7 3,884.2 2) Repayments 289.6 2,727.1 359.2 1,864.0 3) Interest Payments 19.8 280.2 27.0 285.4 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -31.0 -230.0 -141.5 2,020.2 5) Net Transfers (4-3) -50.7 -510.2 -168.5 1,734.8 Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 201.4 744.9 456.5 1,233.8 2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 201.4 744.9 456.5 1,233.8 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 201.4 744.9 456.5 1,233.8 Non-Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 5.0 14.8 49.3 2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 5.0 14.8 49.3 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 5.0 14.8 49.3 Grand Total 1) Gross Disbursements 2,237.2 19,357.8 2,108.3 18,148.9 2) Repayments 1,791.6 15,040.4 1,769.8 12,742.9 3) Interest Payments 194.0 2,551.4 197.2 2,539.1 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 445.6 4,317.4 338.5 5,406.0 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 251.6 1,766.0 141.3 2,866.9 *: Data are provisional. 10INFLATION Wholesale Price Index (WPI 2004-05=100): The headline WPI inflation declined to a five-year low of 0.0 per cent in November 2014 from 1.8 per cent in the previous month (October 2014). Inflation for food articles for the month of November 2014 declined to 0.6 per cent from 2.7 per cent in the previous month mainly on account of lower inflation in cereals, vegetables, fruits, milk and condiments & spices. Accordingly, food inflation (primary food + manufactured food) came down from 2.5 per cent in October 2014 to 0.8 per cent in November 2014. Inflation in fuel & power dropped to -4.9 per cent in November 2014 from 0.4 per cent in the previous month. Inflation for manufactured products moderated to 2.0 per cent in November 2014 from 2.4 per cent in the previous month. Non-food manufactured inflation (core as defined by RBI) also eased to 2.2 per cent in November 2014 from 2.5 per cent in the previous month on account of moderation in all sub groups in the core group except non-metallic mineral products, wood and leather. The average WPI inflation rate for the last 12 months (December 2013 to November 2014) was 4.4 per cent as compared to 6.4 per cent during the corresponding period in 2013-14. The build-up of inflation since March is 0.7 per cent as against 6.7 per cent in the corresponding period last year. WPI inflation rates for major groups are indicated in Table 16. Table 16: Current Price Situation based on Monthly WPI in November2014 (Base: 2004-05=100) Cumulative change Inflation (%) Inflation (%) Weight (%) Since March (Avg. of 12 months) Major groups (%) 2014- 2014- 2013- 2013- 2013-14 2014-15 15 15 14 14 ALL COMMODITIES 100 0.7 6.7 0.0 7.5 4.4 6.4 PRIMARY ARTICLES 20.12 5.4 14.3 -1.0 15.3 5.4 10.6 Food Articles 14.34 9.8 19.5 0.6 19.7 7.1 13.1 FUEL AND POWER 14.91 -7.0 9.4 -4.9 11.1 6.4 9.9 MANUFACTURED PDT. 64.97 0.8 2.4 2.0 2.9 3.3 3.5 Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPIs): The all India CPI inflation (combined) moderated to 4.4 per cent in November 2014 (lowest since its introduction in January 2012) from 5.5 per cent in October 2014 on account of moderation in inflation for all broad groups. Inflation based on CPI-IW declined to 5.0 per cent in October 2014 from 6.3 per cent in September 2014. Inflation based on other CPIs (CPI-AL &RL) was above 6 per cent in October2014. Table 17: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (per cent) WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI(NS) Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2010 Nov-13 7.5 11.5 13.4 13.3 11.2 Dec-13 6.4 9.1 11.2 11.2 9.9 Jan-14 5.1 7.2 9.1 9.2 8.8 Feb-14 5.0 6.7 8.1 8.3 8.0 Mar-14 6.0 6.7 8.4 8.5 8.3 Apr-14 5.5 7.1 8.4 8.7 8.6 May-14 6.2 7.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 Jun-14 5.7 6.5 7.7 7.8 7.5 Jul-14 5.4 7.2 8.0 8.1 8.0 Aug-14 3.9 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.7 Sep-14 2.4 6.3 6.9 7.1 6.5 Oct-14 1.8 5.0 6.1 6.4 5.5 Nov-14 0.0 - - - 4.4 Note: WPI inflation for October & November-14 and CPI (New Series) inflation for November-14 is provisional. 11Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data) Global year-on-year inflation was negative for all broad groups except beverages and fertilizers in November 2014. Actual price data reveal that, while prices of most of the commodities have declined, prices of oils& meals (except soybean oil), barley, maize, sorghum, wheat, potassium chloride, aluminium and tin have increased in November 2014 compared to previous month. Table 18: Year-on-year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (%) Nov-13 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Energy 1.1 -11.4 -17.2 -23.2 Non-energy -8.4 -4.4 -5.9 -4.6 Agriculture -8.6 -5.1 -5.8 -4.7 Beverages -8.3 26.9 28.6 24.4 Food -10.8 -9.2 -10.1 -7.5 Raw Materials -2.0 -7.4 -8.8 -9.7 Fertilizers -25.8 0.5 4.0 5.4 Metals & Minerals -5.0 -3.5 -7.3 -5.6 Precious Metals -27.8 -10.2 -10.0 -10.9 12PUBLIC FINANCE As a proportion of Budget estimate, fiscal deficit and revenue deficit during April-October 2014-15 was 89.6 per cent and 98.5 per cent respectively. Table 19: Trends in Central Government Finances : April-September 2014-15 Budget April-October Col.3 as Col.4 as Per cent change Estimates ( (` Crore) per per over preceding ` Crore) cent of cent of year 2014-15 2013- 2014- 2013- 2014- 2013- 2014- 14 15 14 BE 15 BE 14 15 (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1.Revenue Receipts 1189763 456041 480073 43.2 40.4 12.8 5.3 Gross tax revenue* 1364524 532221 563598 43.1 41.3 9.3 5.9 Tax (net to Centre) 977258 356526 368872 40.3 37.7 6.8 3.5 Non Tax Revenue 212505 99515 111201 57.8 52.3 41.3 11.7 2.Capital Receipts 605129 465968 482015 76.5 79.7 24.2 3.4 of which Recovery of loans 10527 6493 6142 60.9 58.3 10.7 -5.4 Other Receipts 63425 1589 122 2.8 0.2 14.6 -92.3 Borrowings and other 531177 457886 475751 84.4 89.6 24.5 3.9 liabilities 3.Total Receipts (1+2) 1794892 922009 962088 55.4 53.6 18.3 4.3 4.Non-Plan Expenditure 1 2 1 9 8 9 2 6 5 3 9 5 0 6 9 5 0 9 7 58.9 57 17.9 6.3 (a)+(b) (a) Revenue Account 1114609 591816 641498 59.6 57.6 17.2 8.4 of which: Interest payments 427011 184422 205974 49.8 48.2 18.3 11.7 Major Subsidies 251397 173134 178105 78.4 70.8 17.0 2.9 Pensions 81983 41913 53737 59.3 65.5 21.2 28.2 (b) Capital Account 105283 62134 53599 53.1 50.9 25.5 -13.7 5.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 575000 268059 266991 48.3 46.4 19.2 -0.4 (i) Revenue Account 453503 217235 211209 49 46.6 17.7 -2.8 (ii) Capital Account 121497 50824 55782 45.4 45.9 25.8 9.8 6.Total Expenditure 1794892 922009 962088 55.4 53.6 18.3 4.3 (4)+(5) (a)Revenue Expenditure 1568112 809051 852707 56.3 54.4 17.3 5.4 (b)Of which Grants for 168104 80237 73705 45.9 43.8 36.1 -8.1 creation of Capital Assets (c)Capital Expenditure 226780 112958 109381 49.3 48.2 25.6 -3.2 7.Revenue Deficit 378349 353010 372634 92.9 98.5 23.8 5.6 8.Effective Revenue Deficit 210245 272773 298929 132.9 142.2 20.5 9.6 (7-6(b)) 9.Fiscal Deficit 531177 457886 475751 84.4 89.6 24.5 3.9 10.Primary Deficit 104166 273464 269777 159.2 259 29.0 -1.3 Source: Controller General of Accounts. * Gross Tax Revenue is prior to devolution to the States. 13