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Ministry of Finance
Department of Economic Affairs
Economic Division
4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012
MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT
OCTOBER 2015
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HIGHLIGHTS
As per the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the Central
Statistics Office (CSO) on 30th November 2015, the growth rate of GDP at constant (2011-12)
market prices for the second quarter (Q2) (July-September) of 2015-16 is estimated at 7.4 per
cent as compared to the growth of 7.0 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16, and 7.5 per cent in Q4 of 2014-
15. Growth in the first half (H1) of 2015-16 works out to 7.2 per cent.
The growth of Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices for agriculture &
allied sectors, industry sector and services sector are estimated at 2.2 per cent, 6.8 per cent and
8.8 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2015-16 as compared to the corresponding rates of 2.1 per
cent, 7.6 per cent and 10.4 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2014-15.
Stocks of food grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on September 1, 2015 were 50.8 million
tonnes, compared to 57.3 million tonnes as on September 1, 2014.
Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was 3.6 per cent in September 2015 as
compared to 2.6 per cent in September 2014. On a cumulative basis, for the period April-
September 2015-16, the IIP growth was 4.0 per cent as compared to the growth of 2.9 per cent
during the same period of the previous year. Manufacturing sector grew by 2.6 per cent in
September 2015 and 4.2 per cent in April-September 2015.
Eight core infrastructure industries grew by 3.2 per cent in September 2015 as compared to
growth of 2.6 per cent in September 2014. The cumulative growth of core industries during
April-September 2015-16 is 2.3 per cent as compared to growth of 5.1 per cent during April-
September 2014-15.
The growth of money Supply (YoY) in October 2015 was 11.0 per cent, lower than 11.7 percent
recorded in the corresponding period a year ago.
Merchandise exports and imports declined by 17.5 per cent and 21.2 per cent (in US$ terms) in
October 2015 over October 2014. During April-October 2015, merchandise exports and imports
declined by 17.6 per cent and 15.2 per cent respectively.
Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 353.6 billion in 30th October 2015 as compared to US$
350.3 billion in end-September 2015 and US$ 341.6 billion in end-March 2015.
The rupee appreciated against the US dollar, Pound sterling, Japanese yen and Euro by 1.8 per
cent, 1.9 per cent, 1.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively in October 2015 over the previous
month of September 2015.
The WPI inflation for all commodities reached to (-) 3.8 per cent in October 2015 from (-) 4.5 per
cent in September 2015. The all India CPI inflation (New Series- Combined) increased to 5.0 per
cent in October 2015 from 4.4 per cent in September 2015. The WPI inflation during April-
October 2015 averaged (-) 3.5 per cent while inflation as per CPI (Combined) averaged 4.6 per
cent during the period.
Gross tax revenue during April-September 2015-16 was ` 5,96,884 crore, recorded growth of
21.7 per cent over April-September 2014-15.
(Narendra Jena)
Economic Officer
jena.narendra@nic.in
11. ECONOMIC GROWTH
As per the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the Central
Statistics Office (CSO) on 30th November 2015, the growth rate of GDP at constant (2011-12)
market prices for the second quarter (Q2) (July-September) of 2015-16 is estimated at 7.4 per
cent as compared to the growth of 7.0 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16, and 7.5 per cent in Q4 of 2014-
15. Growth in the first half (H1) of 2015-16 works out to 7.2 per cent.
The growth of Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices for agriculture &
allied sectors, industry sector and services sector are estimated at 2.2 per cent, 6.8 per cent and
8.8 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2015-16 as compared to the corresponding rates of 2.1 per
cent, 7.6 per cent and 10.4 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2014-15 (Table 2).
The private final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP increased from 58.7 per cent
in Q2 of 2014-15 to 60.0 per cent in Q2 of 2015-16. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a
percentage of GDP declined from 28.9 per cent in Q2 of 2014-15 to 28.3 per cent in Q2 of 2015-
16.
The growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) market prices was
estimated at 7.3 per cent in 2014-15 (full year; provisional estimates), as compared to 6.9 per
cent and 5.1 per cent in 2013-14 and 2012-13 respectively (Table 1).
There was a decline in the rate of gross domestic saving from 33.9 per cent of the GDP in 2011-
12 to 31.8 per cent in 2012-13 and further to 30.6 per cent in 2013-14. This was primarily due to
the sharp decline in the rate of household physical savings.
2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT
Rainfall: The cumulative rainfall received for the country as a whole, during the period 1st
October – 18th November 2015, has been 28 per cent below normal. The actual rainfall received
this period has been 72.2 mm as against the normal at 100.9 mm. Out of the total 36
meteorological subdivisions, 3 subdivision received excess season rainfall, 5 subdivisions
received normal season rainfall and the remaining 28 subdivisions received deficient/scanty
season rainfall.
2 All India production of food grains: As per the 1st advance estimates released by Ministry of
Agriculture on 16.09.2015, production of kharif foodgrains during 2015-16 is estimated at 124.1
million tonnes, compared to 120.3 million tonnes in 2014-15 (1st AE) (Table 3).
Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 20.11.2015 was 12.9 million tonnes during Kharif
Marketing Season 2015-16 and procurement of wheat as on 20.11.2015 was 28.1 million tonnes
during Rabi Marketing Season 2015-16 (Table 4).
Off-take: Off-take of rice during the month of August, 2015 was 27.0 lakh tonnes. This comprises
22.8 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month of September,
2015) and 4.1 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total off-take was 21.9
lakh tonnes comprising of 18.5 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for
the month of September, 2015) and 3.4 lakh tonnes under other schemes. Cumulative Off-take of
foodgrains during 2015-16 (till August 2015) is 26.3 million tonnes (Table 5).
Stocks: Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on September 1, 2015 were 50.8
million tonnes, compared to 57.3 million tonnes as on September 1, 2014 (Table 6).
3. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
The IIP growth in September 2015 was 3.6 per cent, mainly due to higher electricity growth at
11.4 per cent and moderate growth in mining sector and manufacturing sector at 3.0 per cent
and 2.6 per cent respectively.
The growth of mining sector at 3.0 per cent in September 2015 is positive development
compared to 0.1 per cent growth in September 2014 and is moderate because of de growth in
production of crude oil at 0.1 per cent and lower growth in natural gas at 0.9 per cent. The coal
mining growth was also not satisfactory at 1.9 per cent in September 2015. Still it is expected
that in the near future the coal production will increase since Coal India is acquiring new mines
and is also expanding the existing ones.
The manufacturing growth is at 2.6 per cent in September 2015 as compared to 2.7 per cent of
growth in the corresponding month of previous year. The industry groups like furniture,
electrical machinery & apparatus, chemicals and chemical products, tobacco products and motor
vehicles have boosted manufacturing growth while the industry groups like publishing, printing
& reproduction of recorded media, wearing apparel, medical, precision & optical instruments,
watches a clocks, radio, TV and communication equipment and food products and beverages
have pulled down the manufacturing growth.
In terms of use based classification, basic goods, capital goods, intermediate goods and
consumer goods including consumer durables registered positive growth in September 2015
while the consumer non-durable goods registered negative growth.
Basic goods growth has improved to at 4.0 per cent in September 2015 due to a substantial
growth of the electricity sector at 11.4 per cent. An appreciable increase in propylene, ethylene,
aluminum wires & extrusions, carbon steel, plates have boosted the growth in basic goods.
Intermediate goods are growing at a positive rate for last eleven months. In September 2015,
the intermediate goods have attained 2.1 per cent growth due to items like particle boards,
polypropylene, steel structure, LPG and cotton yarn.
The capital goods production have increased by 10.5 per cent in September 2015 because of
increase in production of items like earth moving machinery, commercial vehicles, aluminum
conductor, cylinders and plastic machinery. This sector had experienced a deceleration of 2.0
3per cent in June 2015, and double digit growth of 10.6 per cent and 21.4 per cent in July 2015
and August 2015 respectively.
The growth of Consumer goods at 0.6 per cent is because of negative growth of consumer non-
durable goods at (-) 4.6 per cent, though the consumer durable goods grew at 8.4 per cent in
September 2015.
The growth in Consumer durable goods is due to impressive growth in Gems & Jewelry, Wood
Furniture, Car/Cab tyre, Scooter and Mopeds and Passenger Cars. The production of Gems &
Jewellery grew at 147.9 per cent has also boosted the consumer durables.
The negative growth of Consumer non-durable goods sector at (-) 4.6 per cent is due to decrease
in production of items like Sugar, Leather garments, Newspapers, Apparels and Tea.
The items like Gems and jewellery; electricity; cable, rubber insulated; commercial vehicles;
antibiotics and it’s preparations have positively contributed to the IIP while items like
stainless/alloy steel; leather garments; telephone instruments including mobile phone and
accessories; tractors and instant food mixes have contributed negatively to the index in
September 2015.
Eight Core Industries
Eight Core industries have also shown significant improvement with growth rate of 3.2 per cent
in September 2015 as compared to 1.1 per cent in July 2015 and 2.6 per cent in August 2015,
due to higher growth of fertilizers at 18.1 per cent and electricity at 10.8 per cent in September
2015.
Coal production has increased by 1.9 per cent in September 2015 on Y-O-Y basis. Though the
coal production growth is low, but it is improving as compared to the previous two month’s
growth. Coal Limited (CIL) and its subsidiary companies have achieved 96.0 per cent of the
target in September 2015.
Crude oil production during September 2015 is 0.1 per cent lower than the production during
the corresponding period of last year, after registering high growth of 5.6 per cent in the month
of August 2015. Though the crude oil production of ONGC is 2.6 per cent higher than the
production achieved in the corresponding month of last year, the OIL’s crude oil production in
September 2015 at (-) 6.3 per cent, has affected the crude oil production growth. The production
of Pvt./JV oil companies is 3.2 per cent lower as compared toSeptember 2014.
Natural gas production has increased by 0.9 per cent in September 2015 compared to the
corresponding period of last year mainly because of increase of production by both ONGC and
OIL by 2.1 per cent and 4.3 per cent respectively. However, Pvt./JVs’ companies gas production
during September 2015 is 3.1 per cent lower than the production in September 2014.
Refinery production has increased by 0.5 per cent in September 2015 which is lower than the
growth rate of the last four months. Though the production has been increased in IOC and joint
ventures like Bharat Oman Refineries Ltd and HPCL Mittal Energy but the production by
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, and Chennai
Petroleum Corporation Ltd has dropped.
Fertilizers production has increased substantially by 18.1 per cent in September 2015 as
compared to (-) 11.6 per cent growth in September 2014. The growth in fertilizer production
has been positive in the last seven months. Due to positive growth in Urea production since April
2015 and double digit growth of complex grade fertilizers over the period, the growth in
fertilizer growth has been positive.
4 Steel production has declined by 2.5 per cent in September 2015 over the same period last year.
Imports have increased by 11.1 per cent and exports declined by 15.2 per cent in September
2015.
Cement has shown a negative growth at (-) 1.5 per cent in September 2015 after showing
positive growth for the last four months. Since the real estate and construction activities are
taking place, the demand for cement is significant. The issue is that the cement industries are not
utilizing fully their installed capacity. Due to lower production the price of cement is also picking
up.
Some Infrastructure Indicators
The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1014.2 million at the end of
August 2015 to 1022.6 million at the end of September 2015. The overall tele-density in India
stood at 81.0; the urban tele-density was 152.8 and rural tele-density was 48.7 at end-
September 2015.
The traffic handled in major ports grew by 3.7 per cent to 347.9 million tonnes in April-October
2015 from 335.6 million tonnes in April-October 2014.
Power Sector Scenario (Source: Central Electricty Authority):
Electricity generation grew by 10.8 per cent in September 2015 and 4.4 per cent during
April-September 2015.
The addition to power generation capacity was 1951 MW in September 2015, compared
to 660 MW in September 2014. The addition to power generation capacity was 6602 MW
during April-September 2015 as compared to 8978 MW during April-September 2014.
The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 278733.6 MW as on 30st
September 2015 of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources
was 69.7 per cent, 15.2 per cent , 13.1 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively.
4. FINANCIAL MARKETS
Money and Banking
Broad Money (M3) or Money Supply: The Growth of Money Supply (YoY) in October 2015
decelerated to 11.0 per cent as compared to a growth rate of 11.7 percent recorded in the
corresponding period a year ago.The growth rate of time deposits was 11.1 percent in October
52015 as against 11.9 percent in October 2014. Growth in Demand deposits with the banks
showed a sharp decline from 12.1 percent in October 2014 to 9.0 percent in October 2015. Table
9, presents YoY growth rates of the components of Money Supply.
Growth of Deposits, Credit and Investments by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs)
Growth of Aggregate deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) as on October 16,
2015 decelerated to 11.2 per cent on year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, as compared to 11.9 per cent
recorded on the corresponding date of the previous year. In regard to bank credit, Y-o-Y growth
in October 2015 was 9.5 per cent as compared to 10.6 per cent in the corresponding period of
the previous year. In terms of non-food credit, Y-o-Y growth was 9.8 per cent in October 2015 as
against 10.7 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago. The Y-o-Y growth of investment in
Government and other approved securities by SCBs was 11.1 per cent in October 2015 as
compared to 10.3 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year, indicating risk
aversion by SCBs.
Reduction in Policy Repo rates
On the basis of reduction of policy repo rates by RBI in September 2015, there has been
reduction in base lending rates. The base lending rate on October 16, 2015 was 9.30/9.70
percent as compared to 10.00/10.25 percent on October 24, 2014. The term deposit rates above
one year was 7.00/7.90 percent on 16th October 2015 as against 8.00/9.05 percent during the
corresponding month of previous year.
5. EXTERNAL SECTOR
Foreign trade: Exports and imports declined by 17.5 per cent and 21.2 per cent respectively in
US$ terms in October 2015 over the corresponding period of the previous year. During October
2015, Oil imports and non-oil imports declined by 45.3 per cent and 9.9 per cent over the
corresponding period of the previous year.
Balance of Payment Situation: India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to US$
6.2 billion (1.2 per cent of GDP) in 2015-16 (April-June) from US$ 7.8 billion (1.6 per cent of
GDP) in corresponding period of the previous year. Net invisibles’ earning was placed at US$
28.0 billion in 2015-16 (April-June) as against US$ 26.7 billion over corresponding period of the
previous year. Net capital inflows, however, declined to US$ 17.6 billion (3.4 per cent of GDP) in
2015-16 (April-June) from US$ 19.0 billion (3.8 per cent of GDP) in the corresponding period of
2014-15.
Foreign Exchange Reserves: Foreign Exchange Reserves stood at US$ 353.6 billion as on 30th
October 2015 as compared to US$ 350.3 billion at end-September 2015.
Exchange Rate: The rupee appreciated against the US dollar, Pound sterling, Japanese yen and
Euro by 1.8 per cent, 1.9 per cent, 1.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent in October 2015 respectively
over the previous month of September 2015.
External Debt: India’s external debt remains within manageable limits as indicated by the
external debt-GDP ratio of 24.0 per cent at end-June 2015 vis-à-vis 23.7 per cent at end-March
2015. External debt stock stood at US$ 482.9 billion at end-June 2015 recording an increase of
1.8 per cent over the level at end-March 2015. Short-term external debt was US$ 84.4 billion at
end-June 2015, as compared to US$84.7 billion at end-March 2015. Long-term debt accounted
for 82.5 per cent of total external debt at end-June 2015 (82.1 per cent at end-March 2015).
66. INFLATION
Wholesale Price Index (WPI 2004-05=100): The headline WPI inflation remained negative
since November 2014 and is placed at (-) 3.8 per cent in October 2015. Inflation for food articles
for the month of October 2015 increased to 2.4 per cent from 0.7 per cent in the previous month.
Accordingly, food inflation (food articles+ food products) increased to 1.7 per cent from 0.2 per
cent in the previous month mainly on account of pulses, vegetables, condiments & spices, edible
oils and oil cakes.
Inflation in fuel & power stood at (-)16.3 per cent in October 2015 compared to (-) 17.7per cent
in the previous month. Inflation for manufactured products remained unchanged at (-) 1.7 per
cent as in September 2015.
Non-food manufactured products inflation (core as defined by RBI) in October 2015 stood at (-)
2.1 per cent as compared to (-)1.9 per cent in previous month.
Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPIs): The all India CPI inflation (New Series-
Combined) increased to 5.0 per cent in October 2015 from 4.4 per cent in September 2015.
Inflation in terms of Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) increased to 5.2 per cent in October
72015 from 3.9 per cent in September 2015 driven by rise in prices of vegetables, fruits, oils &
fats and pulses.
Inflation based on CPI-IW for September 2015 increased to 5.1 per cent from 4.3 per cent in
August 2015. Inflation based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL increased to 3.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent
respectively in September 2015 as compared to 3.0 per cent and 3.2 per cent in August 2015.
Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data): Global commodity
prices continued to remain weak. Global year-on-year inflation was negative for all broad groups
in October 2015 (Table 14).
7. PUBLIC FINANCE
The budget estimate of the fiscal deficit for 2015-16 is 3.9 per cent as compared to 4.0 per cent
in 2014-15(provisional). The budget estimate for revenue deficit for 2015-16 is 2.8 per cent, the
same as the provisional in 2014-15.
The growth in provisional figures for 2015-16(April-September) over 2014-15 (April-
September), is the following :
Gross tax revenue, at ` 5,96,884 crore, increased by 21.7 per cent in April-September 2015-
16.
Revenue Receipts (net to Centre), at ` 5,13,369 crore, increased by 22.8 per cent in April-
September 2015-16.
Tax revenue (net to Centre), at ` 3,69,736 crore, increased by 14.4 per cent.
Non-tax revenue, at ` 1,43,633 crore, increased by 51.7 per cent.
Non-plan expenditure increased by 6.7 per cent.
Plan expenditure grew by 3.1 per cent.
Total expenditure, at ` 9,10,545 crore, increased by 5.6 per cent.
88. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN OCTOBER 2015
The Union Cabinet approved for the formation of a Group ‘A’ service of the technical cadre of the
Ministry of Skill Development & Entrepreneurship (MSD&E). The new service will be named as the
Indian Skill Development Service (ISDS).
The Government decided to train 10,000 young “barefoot” technicians in the basic concepts of civil
engineering and involve them in planning, doing layout, measuring and supervising MGNREGA works
in 2,500 most backward blocks across India.
The Union Cabinet approved for setting up of three new All India Institutes of Medical Sciences
(AllMS) at Nagpur in Maharashtra, at Manglagiri in Andhra Pradesh and at Kalyani in West Bengal
under Pradhan Mantri Swasthya Suraksha Yojna (PMSSY).
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved to implement the World Bank
assisted National Watershed Management Project "Neeranchal" with a total outlay of $357 million
and implement the project at the National level as well as in the nine States of Andhra Pradesh,
Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan and Telangana.
The Union Cabinet approved the construction of a National War Memorial and a National War
Museum at Princess Park, near India Gate, New Delhi in memory of all Indian soldiers who have
made the supreme sacrifice for the country post-independence. The estimated cost of the project will
be around Rs. 500 crore.
The Union Cabinet has approved the Protocol amending the Agreement between India and Vietnam
for the avoidance of double taxation and for prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on
income.
Government approved eleven (11) proposals of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) amounting to Rs.
1,567.91 crore.
The CCEA has given its ex-post facto approval for a Special Banking Arrangement (SBA) for a loan of
Rs.7000 crore with the consortium of Public Sector Banks led by State Bank of India (SBI) and Punjab
National Bank (PNB) for settlement of outstanding indigenous urea subsidy bills of fertilizer
companies in 2014-15.
The CCEA approved for construction of 13072 houses and 113 barracks of various types at 68
locations of the Central Industrial Security Force, Central Reserve Police Force and Indo-Tibetan
Border Police during 12th Five Year Plan (2012-2017). The estimated cost of Rs. 3090.98 crore.
The CCEA approved for one time fund infusion to revive and physically complete languishing
national highway projects under the extension of provision available for BOT (Toll) projects to BOT
(annuity) projects.
Government has decided to set up a National Tribal Advisory Council for effecting monitoring and
implementation of various tribal welfare schemes.
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9TABLES
Table 1: Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 Prices) (in per cent)
Growth Share in GVA
Sector
2012- 2013- 2014-15 2012- 2013- 2014-
13 14 (PE) 13 14 15 (PE)
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1.2 3.7 0.2 17.7 17.2 16.1
Industry 2.4 4.5 6.1 32.3 31.7 31.4
Mining & quarrying -0.2 5.4 2.4 3.0 3.0 2.9
Manufacturing 6.2 5.3 7.1 18.3 18.1 18.1
Electricity, gas ,water supply & other
4.0 4.8 7.9 2.4 2.3 2.3
utility services
Construction -4.3 2.5 4.8 8.6 8.3 8.1
Services 8.0 9.1 10.2 50.0 51.1 52.5
Trade, hotels, transport, communication
9.6 11.1 10.7 18 18.8 19.4
and services related to broadcasting
Financial, real estate & professional
8.8 7.9 11.5 19.5 19.7 20.5
services
Public administration, defence and Other
4.7 7.9 7.2 12.5 12.6 12.6
Services
GVA at basic prices 4.9 6.6 7.2 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP at market prices 5.1 6.9 7.3 --- --- ---
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO). PE: Provisional Estimates.
Table 2: Quarter-wise Growth of GVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (per cent)
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Sectors Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Agriculture, forestry & 1.9 2.2
fishing 2.7 3.6 3.8 4.4 2.6 2.1 -1.1 -1.4
Industry 4.8 4.0 5.0 4.3 7.7 7.6 3.6 5.6 6.5 6.8
Mining & quarrying 0.8 4.5 4.2 11.5 4.3 1.4 1.5 2.3 4.0 3.2
Manufacturing 7.2 3.8 5.9 4.4 8.4 7.9 3.6 8.4 7.2 9.3
Electricity, gas ,water 3.2 6.7
supply & other utility
services 2.8 6.5 3.9 5.9 10.1 8.7 8.7 4.2
Construction 1.5 3.5 3.8 1.2 6.5 8.7 3.1 1.4 6.9 2.6
Services 10.2 10.6 9.1 6.4 8.7 10.4 12.5 9.2 8.9 8.8
Trade, hotels, transport,
communication and
services related to
broadcasting 10.3 11.9 12.4 9.9 12.1 8.9 7.4 14.1 12.8 10.6
Financial, real estate &
professional services 7.7 11.9 5.7 5.5 9.3 13.5 13.3 10.2 8.9 9.7
Public administration,
defence and Other
Services 14.4 6.9 9.1 2.4 2.8 7.1 19.7 0.1 2.7 4.7
GVA at basic prices 7.2 7.5 6.6 5.3 7.4 8.4 6.8 6.1 7.1 7.4
GDP at market prices 7.0 7.5 6.4 6.7 6.7 8.4 6.6 7.5 7.0 7.4
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO).
10Table 3: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (1st Adv. Est.)
Crops Production (in Million Tonnes)
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16$
(Final) (Final) (4th AE) (1st AE)
Total Foodgrains 257.1 265.0 252.7 124.1
Rice 105.2 106.7 104.8 90.6
Wheat 93.5 95.9 88.9 -
Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 41.8 27.9
Total Pulses 18.3 19.3 17.2 5.6
Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 26.7 19.9
Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 359.3 341.4
Cotton 34.2 35.9 35.5 33.5
$: Covers only Kharif Crops.
Table 4 : Procurement of Crops in Million Tonnes
Crops 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Rice# 34.2 35.0 34.0 31.8 32.2 12.9 β
Wheat@ 22.5 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0 28.1β
Total 56.7 63.4 72.2 56.9 60.2 41.0
# Kharip Marketing Season (October-September), @ Rabi Marketing Season (April-March), β Position as on
20.11.2015.
Table 5: Off-Take of Food Grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
(Till August)
Rice 32.6 29.2 30.7 14.2
Wheat 33.2 30.6 25.2 12.1
Total 65.9 59.8 55.9 26.3
(Rice & Wheat)
Table 6: Stocks of Food Grains (Million Tonnes)
Crops September 1, 2014 September 1, 2015
1. Rice 17.3 13.9
2. Unmilled Paddy# 6.7 3.6
3. Converted Unmilled Paddy in terms 4.5 2.4
of Rice
4. Wheat 35.5 34.5
Total (Rice & Wheat)(1+3+4) 57.3 50.8
# Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state
agencies in terms of rice.
11Table 7: Per centage Change in Index of Industrial Production
Industry Group April-Sept. 2014-15 April-Sept. 2015-16 Sept. 2014 Sept. 2015
General index 2.9 4.0 2.6 3.6
Mining 1.7 1.5 0.1 3.0
Manufacturing 2.2 4.2 2.7 2.6
Electricity 10.4 4.5 3.9 11.4
Basic goods 7.8 4.4 5.0 4.0
Capital goods 6.0 7.9 12.3 10.5
Intermediate goods 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.1
Consumer goods -4.2 2.4 -4.0 0.6
Durables -12.5 7.6 -11.1 8.4
Non-durables 1.9 -0.9 1.3 -4.6
Table 8: Production growth (per cent) in Core Infrastructure-supportive industries
Industry April-Sept. 2014-15 April-Sept. 2015-16 Sept. -2014 Sept.- 2015
Coal 7.7 4.2 7.6 1.9
Crude oil -1.2 0.4 -1.1 -0.1
Natural Gas -5.8 -2.1 -5.8 0.9
Refinery Products -2.7 3.6 -2.6 0.5
Fertilizers 0.0 8.0 -11.6 18.1
Steel 6.6 -0.4 6.6 -2.5
Cement 9.7 1.3 3.7 -1.5
Electricity 10.4 4.1 3.9 10.8
Overall growth 5.1 2.3 2.6 3.2
Table 9: YoY growth rate of components of M3 (In Per cent)
Governments Banking Sectors
Net Bank Bank Credit to Net Foreign
Currency Net Non-
Date Credit to Commercial Exchange Assets of
Liabilities to the monetary
Government Sector Banking Sector
Public Liabilities
Oct-2015 5.9 9.3 19.2 12.1 5.0
Oct -2014 3.5 10.4 12.8 11.2 -4.8
Oct -2013 13.7 16.1 11.6 14.0 19.5
Oct 2012 20.1 16.0 -0.4 13.6 16.8
Oct -2011 22.4 19.4 19.0 5.2 58.4
Oct -2010 22.6 20.8 0.1 13.2 10.9
12Table 10: Exports and Imports (in US$ million)
Item 2014-15 2014 2015 % Change in 2014-15 2015-16 % Change in
October 2015 April- October
October April-October 2015
Exports 310338 25891 21353 -17.5 187289 154292 -17.6
Imports -15.2
448033 39469 31120 -21.2 273558 232054
Oil imports -42.1
138326 12517 6846 -45.3 94896 54975
Non-Oil -0.9
309708 26952 24274 -9.9 178662 177079
imports
Trade -
-137695 -13577 -9767 - -86269 -77762
Balance
Source: Provisional data as per the Press Note of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Table 11: Foreign Exchange Reserves (in Billion)
Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation
End of Financial Year
(Rupees ) (US Dollar) (Rupees ) (US Dollar )
At the end of year (Variation over last year)
2012-13 15884 292.0 823 -2.4
2013-14 18284 304.2 2400 12.2
2014-15 21376 341.6 3093 37.4
At the end of month (Variation over last month)
April-2015 22110 351.9 733 10.2
May-2015 22437 352.5 328 0.6
June-2015 22660 356.0 222 3.5
July-2015 22580 353.5 -80 -2.5
August-2015 23199 351.4 619 2.1
September -2015 22940 350.3 -259 1.1
October 2015* 22999 353.6 59 3.3
*: as 30th October, 2015, Source: RBI
13Table 12 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency*
US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro
March, 2012 50.3213 79.6549 0.6103 66.4807
March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951
March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621
2014-15
Oct-14 61.3420 98.7168 0.5687 77.9117
Nov-14 61.7042 97.2826 0.5305 76.9857
Dec-14 62.7530 98.1115 0.5260 77.3553
Jan-15 62.2314 94.5460 0.5255 72.7682
Feb-15 62.0376 95.0079 0.5233 70.4671
Mar-15 62.4498 93.4422 0.5190 67.5548
2015-16
Apr-15 62.7532 93.9083 0.5253 67.7934
May-15 63.8003 98.8205 0.5283 71.2135
Jun-15 63.8607 99.3620 0.5165 71.5874
Jul-15 63.6350 99.0771 0.5161 70.0292
Aug-15 65.0723 101.4870 0.5286 72.5145
Sep-15 66.2178 101.6029 0.5515 74.3909
Oct-2015 65.0580 99.7563 0.5419 73.0629
Source: Reserve Bank of India, * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis), ** Data from
March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate.
14Table 13: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)*
Oct-15 FY 2015-16 Oct-14 FY 2014-15
External Assistance (Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 1,905.7 15,011.1 1,208.1 14,333.6
2) Repayments 943.4 12,412.8 844.0 10,811.3
3) Interest Payments 287.8 1,988.1 300.1 2,097.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 962.3 2,598.2 364.2 3,522.2
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 674.5 610.1 64.1 1,425.2
External Assistance (Non-Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 2,870.9 189.7 2,238.5
2) Repayments 0.0 1,727.9 4.4 2,437.5
3) Interest Payments 0.0 240.1 1.9 260.4
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 1,143.0 185.3 -199.0
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 902.9 183.4 -459.5
Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 12.8 1,070.0 118.3 578.7
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 12.8 1,070.0 118.3 578.7
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 12.8 1,070.0 118.3 578.7
Non-Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 2.5 75.4 2.3 6.8
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 2.5 75.4 2.3 6.8
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 2.5 75.4 2.3 6.8
Grand Total
1) Gross Disbursements 1,921.0 19,027.4 1,518.5 17,157.6
2) Repayments 943.4 14,140.7 848.3 13,248.8
3) Interest Payments 287.8 2,228.2 302.0 2,357.4
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 977.6 4,888.7 670.1 3,908.7
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 689.9 2,658.5 368.2 1,551.3
*: Data are provisional.
Table 14: Year-on-year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (Per cent)
Oct-14 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15
Energy -17.2 -50.9 -48.9 -43.8
Non-energy -5.9 -18.2 -16.2 -15.0
Agriculture -5.8 -14.3 -12.7 -11.3
Beverages 28.6 -12.1 -12.5 -13.0
Food -10.1 -16.8 -14.8 -12.9
Raw Materials -8.8 -8.5 -6.9 -5.7
Fertilizers 4.0 -7.3 -9.3 -9.3
Metals & Minerals -7.3 -28.9 -25.5 -24.7
Precious Metals -10.0 -16.1 -11.5 -6.1
15Table 15: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (per cent)
WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI (NS)
Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012
Oct-14 1.7 5.0 6.1 6.4 4.6
Nov-14 -0.2 4.1 4.6 5.0 3.3
Dec-14 -0.5 5.9 5.5 5.7 4.3
Jan-15 -0.9 7.2 6.2 6.5 5.2
Feb-15 -2.2 6.3 6.1 6.2 5.4
Mar-15 -2.3 6.3 5.2 5.5 5.3
Apr-15 -2.4 5.8 4.4 4.7 4.9
May-15 -2.2 5.7 4.4 4.6 5.0
Jun-15 -2.1 6.1 4.5 4.7 5.4
Jul-15 -4.0 4.4 2.9 3.2 3.7
Aug-15 -5.1 4.3 3.0 3.2 3.7
Sep-15 -4.5 5.1 3.5 3.7 4.4
Oct-15 -3.8 - - - 5.0
Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI (New Series) inflation for last one month are provisional.
Table 16: Fiscal Indicators- Rolling Targets as Per centage of GDP
(at current market prices)
Provisional Actuals Budget Estimates Targets for
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Effective Revenue Deficit 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.0
Revenue Deficit 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.0
Fiscal Deficit 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0
Gross Tax Revenue 9.8 10.3 10.5 10.7
Tax Revenue (net to Centre) 7.1 6.5 6.7 6.8
Non-Tax Revenue 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4
Total Expenditure 13.0 12.6 12.1 11.6
Total outstanding liabilities at --- 46.1 44.7 42.8
the end of the year
Notes:
1. The ratio to GDP at current market prices are based on the CSO’s National Accounts 2011-12 Series.
2. “Total outstanding liabilities” include external public debt at current exchange rates. For projections,
constant exchange rates have been assumed. Liabilities do not include part of NSSF and total MSS
liabilities which are not used for Central Government deficit.
16Table 17: Trends in Central Government Finances : April -September, (2015-16)
Budget April-September Col.3 as Col.4 as Per cent change
Estimates (` Crore) per per cent over preceding
( ` Crore) cent of of year
2014- 2015-16
2015-16 2014-15 2015-16@ 15 BE BE 2014- 2015-
15 16
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
I. Revenue Receipts 1141575 417896 513369 35.1 45 7.2 22.8
Gross tax revenue* 1449491 490618 596884 36 41.2 7.1 21.7
Tax (net to Centre) 919842 323191 369736 33.1 40.2 5.1 14.4
Non Tax Revenue 221733 94705 143633 44.6 64.8 15.1 51.7
II. Capital Receipts 635902 444157 397176 73.4 62.5 6.0 -10.6
of which
Recovery of loans 10753 5210 5810 49.5 54 -6.6 11.5
Other Receipts 69500 121 12803 0.2 18.4 -91.8 10481
Borrowings and other 555649 438826 378563 82.6 68.1 6.5 -13.7
liabilities
III. Total Receipts (I+II) 1777477 862053 910545 48.0 51.2 6.6 5.6
IV.Non-Plan Expenditure 1 3 1 2 2 0 0 6 1 5 7 6 4 6 5 6 729 50.5 50 7.5 6.7
(a)+(b)
(a) Revenue Account 1206027 568202 611379 51.0 50.7 9.4 7.6
of which:
Interest payments 456145 185670 197653 43.5 43.3 16.0 6.5
Major Subsidies 243811 160133 140259 63.7 57.5 1.1 -12.4
Pensions 88521 46206 55171 56.4 62.3 34.8 19.4
(b) Capital Account 106173 47562 45350 45.2 42.7 -11.5 -4.7
V.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 465277 246289 253816 42.8 54.6 4.3 3.1
(i) Revenue Account 330020 194747 170998 42.9 51.8 0.9 -12.2
(ii) Capital Account 135257 51542 82818 42.4 61.2 19.6 60.7
VI. Total Expenditure 1777477 862053 910545 48.0 51.2 6.6 5.6
(IV)+(V)
(a) Revenue Expenditure 1 536047 762949 782377 48.7 50.9 7.1 2.5
(b) of which Grants for 110551 66269 64874 39.4 58.7 -4.7 -2.1
creation of Capital Assets
(c) Capital Expenditure 241430 99104 128168 43.7 53.1 2.3 29.3
VII. Revenue Deficit 394472 345053 269008 91.2 68.2 7.1 -22.0
VIII. Effective Revenue 283921 278784 204134 132.6 71.9 10.3 -26.8
Deficit (7-6(b))
IX. Fiscal Deficit 555649 438826 378563 82.6 68.1 6.5 -13.7
X. Primary Deficit 99504 253156 180910 243.0 181.8 0.4 -28.5
Source: Controller General of Accounts. @ Provisional actuals figures. * Gross Tax Revenue is prior to
devolution to the States.
******
17