Monthly Economic Review October 2016

Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division 4(3)/Ec. Dn. /2012 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT OCTOBER 2016 ***** HIGHLIGHTS  As per the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) 2016-17, released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on November 30, 2016, the growth rate of GDP in Q2 of 2016-17 was 7.3 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.6 per cent in Q2 of 2015-16 and 7.1 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17. The growth rate for the first half (H1) of the current year works out to 7.2 per cent as against a growth of 7.5 per cent in H1 of 2015-16.  The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices in Q2 of 2016-17 was 7.1 per cent, as compared to the growth rate of 7.3 per cent in Q2 of 2015-16. At the sectoral level, agriculture, industry and services sectors grew at the rate of 3.3 per cent, 5.2 per cent and 8.9 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2016-17.  Stocks of foodgrains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on November 1, 2016 were 43.9 million tonnes, as compared to 51.2 million tonnes as on November 1, 2015.  Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was 0.7 per cent in September 2016 as compared to 3.7 per cent in September 2015. The IIP growth during April-September 2016-17 was (-) 0.1 per cent as compared to 4.0 per cent during the corresponding period of previous year.  Eight core infrastructure industries grew by 6.6 per cent in October 2016, as compared to 3.8 per cent in October 2015. The growth of these industries during April-October 2016-17 was 4.9 per cent, as compared to 2.8 per cent during the corresponding period of previous year.  Growth of money supply on year on year basis (YoY) as of 14th October 2016 stood at 11.5 per cent as compared to a growth rate of 10.6 per cent recorded in the corresponding date in the previous year.  Merchandise exports and imports increased by 9.6 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively in US dollar terms in October 2016 over October 2015. During October 2016, oil imports increased by 4.0 per cent and non-oil imports increased by 9.3 per cent respectively over October 2015. During April-October 2016, merchandise exports and imports declined by 0.2 per cent and 10.9 per cent respectively.  Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 366.2 billion as at end-October 2016 as compared to US$ 360.2 billion at end March 2016. The rupee appreciated against Pound sterling, Japanese Yen and Euro by 6.3 per cent, 1.7 per cent and 1.7 per cent in October 2016 over the previous month of September 2016. The value of Rupee vis-à-vis US dollar broadly remained unchanged.  The WPI headline inflation declined to 3.4 per cent in October 2016 from 3.6 per cent in September 2016. CPI (New Series) inflation decreased to 4.2 per cent in October 2016 from 4.4 per cent in September 2016.  Gross tax revenue during April- October 2016-17 recorded a growth of 18 per cent over April- October 2015-16. Tax revenue (net to the Centre) increased by 23.6 per cent during April- October 2016-17. The Budget Estimate of the fiscal deficit as per cent of GDP at current market price for 2016-17 is 3.5 per cent as compared to 3.9 per cent in 2015-16. (Narendra Jena) Economic Officer jena.narendra@nic.in 11. ECONOMIC GROWTH  As per the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) 2016-17, released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on November 30, 2016, the growth rate of GDP in Q2 of 2016-17 was 7.3 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.6 per cent in Q2 of 2015-16 and 7.1 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17. The growth rate for the first half (H1) of the current year works out to 7.2 per cent as against a growth of 7.5 per cent in H1 of 2015-16.  The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant (2011-12) basic prices in Q2 of 2016-17 was 7.1 per cent, as compared to the growth rate of 7.3 per cent in Q2 of 2015-16. At the sectoral level, agriculture, industry and services sectors grew at the rate of 3.3 per cent, 5.2 per cent and 8.9 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2016-17 (Table 2).  The growth rate of GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2015-16 was 7.6 per cent (provisional estimates) as compared to the growth rate of 7.2 per cent (1st revised estimates) in 2014-15 (Table 1).  The share of total final consumption in GDP at current prices in 2015-16 was at 70.1 per cent as compared to 68.5 per cent in 2014-15. The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP) declined from 30.8 per cent in 2014-15 to 29.3 per cent in 2015-16.  The saving rate (ratio of gross saving to GDP) for the years 2014-15 and 2013-14 was 33.0 per cent as compared to 33.8 per cent in 2012-13. The investment rate (gross capital formation to GDP) in 2014-15 was 34.2 per cent, as compared to 34.7 per cent and 38.6 per cent respectively in 2013-14 and 2012-13. 2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT  Rainfall: The cumulative rainfall received for the country as a whole, during the period 1st October – 16th November, 2016, has been 39.0 per cent below normal. The actual rainfall received during this period has been 60.9 mm as against the normal at 99.4 mm. Out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 5 subdivisions received excess season rainfall, 9 subdivisions received normal season rainfall and the remaining 22 subdivisions received deficient/scanty/no season rainfall.  All India production of food grains: As per the 1st Advance Estimates released by Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare on 22nd September 2016, production of kharif food grains during 2016-17 is estimated at 135.0 million tonnes compared to 124.1 million tonnes in 2015-16 (1st AE) (Table 3).  Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 1st November 2016 was 11.9 million tonnes during Kharif Marketing Season 2016-17 whereas procurement of wheat as on 01.11.2016 was 23.0 million tonnes during Rabi Marketing Season 2016-17 (Table 4).  Off-take: Off-take of rice during the month of September, 2016 was 28.4 lakh tonnes. This comprises 23.4 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month of October, 2016) and 5.0 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total off-take was 28.6 lakh tonnes comprising 18.0 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month of October, 2016) and 10.6 lakh tonnes under other schemes. Cumulative Off-take of food grains during 2016-17 (till September, 2016) was 35.2 million tonnes (Table 5).  Stocks: Stocks of food-grains (rice and wheat) held by FCI as on November 1, 2016 were 43.9 million tonnes, compared to 51.2 million tonnes as on November 1, 2015 (Table 6). 23. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE Index of Industrial Production (IIP)  The modest growth of IIP in September 2016 at 0.7 per cent is due to negative growth in mining and capital goods sector. Also lower growth in manufacturing sector affected overall IIP growth.  The mining sector contracted by 3.1 per cent in September 2016 as compared to a growth of 3.5 per cent growth in September 2015. The contraction in mining sector is due to lower production of coal, crude oil and natural gas sectors.  The manufacturing production showed a marginal positive growth of 0.9 per cent in September 2016 as compared to 2.7 per cent growth in the corresponding month of previous year. Positive growth in industry groups like textiles; basic metals; food products and beverages; coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; and other non metallic mineral products contributed positively to the growth of the sector.  In terms of use based classification, sectors like basic goods, intermediate goods, consumer durable goods and consumer non-durable goods registered positive growth while capital goods have registered contraction in September 2016. Eight Core Industries  Eight Core industries registered a growth of 6.6 per cent in October 2016 as compared to a growth of 3.8 per cent in October 2015 because of the positive growth in all the five core sectors except coal, crude oil and natural gas sectors. Steel sector has attained robust growth.  Coal production decreased by 1.6 per cent in October 2016 on Y-o-Y basis as compared to a growth of 6.6 per cent growth in October 2015  Crude oil production during October 2016 declined by 3.2 per cent as compared to a decline of 2.1 per cent in production during the corresponding month of previous year  Natural gas production fell by 1.4 per cent in October 2016 as compared to a decline of 1.8 per cent in the corresponding period of previous year.  Refinery production increased by 15.1 per cent in October 2016 as compared to a decline of 4.4 per cent in production during the corresponding period of previous year.  Fertilizers production achieved 0.8 per cent growth in October 2016 as compared to 16.8 per cent in October 2015, Steel production increased by 16.9 per cent in October 2016 as compared to decline of 5.5 per cent in October 2015 and Cement production attained a growth of 6.2 per cent in October 2016 as compared to 12.2 per cent in October 2015. Comparison of Core Industry Growth and IIP Growth 10.0 5.0 0.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 'r p A 'y a M 'n u J 'lu J 'g u A 'p e S 't c O 'v o N 'c e D 'n a J 'b e F 'r a M 'r p A 'y a M 'n u J 'lu J 'g u A 'p e S 't c O 'v o N 'c e D 'n a J 'b e F 'r a M 'r p A 'y a M 'n u J 'lu J 'g u A 'p e S -5.0 IIP Growth Core Industry Growth 3Some Infrastructure Indicators  The number of telephone subscribers in India declined from 1,058.9 million at the end of July 2016 to 1,053.4 million at the end of August 2016. The overall tele-density in India stood at 82.5 per hundred individuals at end-August 2016; the urban tele-density was 152.0 and rural tele- density was 51.0.  The traffic handled in major ports grew by 6.3 per cent, to 370.0 million tonnes in April-October 2016 from 348.2 million tonnes in the corresponding period of previous year.  Power Sector Scenario  As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation grew by 1.3 per cent in October 2016. Growth of electricity generation was 4.5 per cent during April-October 2016.  The addition to power generation capacity was 3928.5 MW during April-October 2016, as compared to 8196.0 MW during April-October 2015. During 2015-16, the addition to power generation capacity was 23,976.6 MW, as compared to 22,566.3 MW during the previous year.  The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 307278.3 MW at the end of October 2016, of which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 69.1 per cent, 14.0 per cent , 14.9 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively. 4. FINANCIAL MARKETS Money and Banking  Money Supply: Growth of money supply on year on year basis (Y-O-Y) as of 14th October 2016 stood at 11.5 per cent as compared to a growth rate of 10.6 per cent recorded in the corresponding period in the previous year. As regards the components of money supply, the growth of ‘currency with the public’ registered a growth of 17.3 percent as of 14th October 2016 against 11.0 percent registered during the corresponding period a year ago. The growth rate of time deposits with banks was 9.8 per cent as of 14th October as against 10.7 per cent in recorded in the corresponding period a year ago. On the other hand, demand deposits increased by 17.6 percent as of 14th October as against 7.6 percent during the same period last year. The details of sources of money supply are given in the Table 9. Growth of Deposits, Credit and Investments by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs)  Growth of Aggregate deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) as of 14th October 2016 was 10.4 per cent on YoY basis as compared to 10.6 per cent recorded during the corresponding date of the previous year. In terms of bank credit, YoY growth was 8.9 per cent as of 14th October 2016 as against 9.2 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago. The YoY growth of investment in Government and other approved securities by SCBs was 8.8 per cent as of 14th October 2016 as compared to 10.7 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Lending and deposit rates  The base lending rate as of 28th October 2016 was 9.30/9.65 percent as compared to 9.30/9.70 percent during the corresponding period a year ago. The term deposit rates for above one year was 6.50/7.30 per cent as of 28th October 2016 as against 7.00/7.90 per cent during the corresponding period a year ago. 45. EXTERNAL SECTOR  Foreign trade: Merchandise exports and imports increased by 9.6 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively in US$ terms in October 2016 over October 2015. During October 2016, oil imports increased by 4.0 per cent and non-oil imports increased by 9.3 per cent respectively over October 2015. During April-October 2016, merchandise exports and imports declined by 0.2 per cent and 10.9 per cent respectively (Table 10).  Balance of Payments: The current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to US$ 0.3 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in Q1 of 2016-17, significantly lower than US$ 6.1 billion (1.2 per cent of GDP) in Q1 of 2015-16. Net invisibles’ earning was US$ 23.5 billion in Q1 of 2016-17 as against US$ 28.0 billion Q1 of the previous year. Net capital inflows, however, declined to US$ 7.3 billion (1.4 per cent of GDP) in Q1of 2015-16 from US$ 17.6 billion (3.5 per cent of GDP) in Q1 of 2015-16.  Foreign Exchange Reserves: Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 366.2 billion as on end October 2016 as compared to US$ 360.2 billion at end March 2016 (Table 11).  Exchange Rate: The rupee appreciated against Pound sterling, Japanese Yen and Euro by 6.3 per cent, 1.7 per cent and 1.7 per cent in October 2016 over the previous month of September 2016. The value of Rupee vis-à-vis US dollar broadly remained unchanged (Table 12).  External Debt: India’s external debt remains within manageable limits as indicated by the external debt-GDP ratio of 23.4 per cent at end-June 2016. India’s external debt stood at US$ 479.7 billion at end-June 2016, recording a decline of 1.1 per cent over the level at end-March 2016. Long-term debt was 397.6 billion at end-June 2016, as compared to US$ 401.7 billion at end-March 2016. Short-term external debt was US$ 82.1 billion at end-June 2016, as compared to US$ 83.4 billion at end-March 2016. Exchange Rate Rupee per US Dollar 70.0 68.0 66.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O 41/rp 41/nu 41/gu 41/tc 41/ce 51/be 51/rp 51/nu 51/gu 51/tc 51/ce 61/be 61/rp 61/nu 61/gu 61/tc India's Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billion) 380.0 370.0 360.0 350.0 340.0 330.0 320.0 310.0 300.0 290.0 280.0 A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O 1/rp 1/nu 1/gu 1/tc 1/ce 1/be 1/rp 1/nu 1/gu 1/tc 1/ce 1/be 1/rp 1/nu 1/gu 1/tc 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 56. INFLATION  The Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPI): The all India CPI inflation (New Series- Combined) eased to 4.2 per cent in October 2016 from 4.4 per cent in September 2016 mainly on account of fall in food prices. Food inflation based on Consumer Food Price Index declined to 3.3 per cent in October 2016 from 4.0 per cent in September 2016 mainly on account of fall in inflation in oils & fats and pulses & products. CPI fuel and light inflation declined to 2.8 per cent in October 2016 from 3.1 per cent in the previous month.  Inflation based on CPI-IW for September 2016 declined to 4.1 per cent from 5.3 per cent in the previous month. Inflation based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL stood at 3.2 per cent and 3.3 per cent respectively in October 2016 (Table 16).  Wholesale Price Index (WPI): The headline WPI inflation declined to 3.4 per cent in October 2016 from 3.6 per cent in September 2016. WPI food inflation (food articles + food products) declined to 6.3 per cent in October 2016 from 7.5 per cent in the previous month mainly on account of pulses, fruits & vegetables and egg, meat & fish. Inflation in fuel & power increased to 6.2 per cent in October 2016 from 5.6 per cent in the previous month. Inflation for manufactured products and non-food manufactured products (core) stood at 2.7 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively in October 2016 as compared to 2.5 per cent and 0.6 per cent in the previous month.  Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data): Food inflation based on World Bank food index declined to 5.9 per cent in October 2016 from 8.5 per cent in September 2016. Energy prices as measured by the World Bank energy index increased by 6.6 per cent (y-o-y) and ‘metals & minerals’ increased by 2.9 per cent in October 2016 (Table 15). Inflation based on WPI and CPI (in per cent) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 /r p A /y a M /n u J /lu J /g u A /p e S /tc O /v o N /c e D /n a J /b e F /ra M /r p A /y a M /n u J /lu J /g u A /p e S /tc O /v o N /c e D /n a J /b e F /ra M /r p A /y a M /n u J /lu J /g u A /p e S WPI headline WPI food CPI headline CPI food (CFPI) 7. PUBLIC FINANCE  The budget estimate of the fiscal deficit as per cent of GDP at current market price for 2016-17 is 3.5 per cent as compared to 3.9 per cent in 2015-16. The Budget estimate for revenue deficit as per cent of GDP at current market price for 2016-17 is 2.3 per cent, as compared to 2.5 per cent in 2015-16. 6The growth in provisional figures for 2016-17(April-September) over 2015-16 are as follows:  Gross tax revenue for the financial year 2016-17 (April- September) was Rs. 6,95,693 crore, recorded a growth of 16.6 per cent over 2015-16.  Revenue Receipts increased by 10.4 per cent in 2016-17(April- September) to Rs. 5,66,923 crore.  Tax revenue (net to Centre) increased to Rs. 4,48,155 crore, a growth of 21.2 per cent over 2015- 16.  Non-tax revenue of Rs. 1,18,768 crore, declined by 17.3 per cent.  Non-plan expenditure increased by 7.4 per cent.  Plan expenditure increased by 27.1 per cent.  Total expenditure amounting Rs. 10,27,728 crore, increased by 12.9 per cent. 8. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN OCTOBER 2016  The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved an acquisition by ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) for 11 per cent stake in JSC Vankorneft from M/s Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft), the National Oil Company of Russian Federation (Russia).  The CCEA approved the mechanism for revision of ethanol price for supply to public sector oil marketing companies to carry out the ethanol blended petrol programme.  The Central Government has announced opening of at least one Krishi Vigyan Kendra in all districts of the country. This will provide advanced agriculture technical assistance to the farmers near their farms itself.  The Government of India has announced the repurchase of its Securities through reverse auction for an aggregate amount of Rs. 20,000 crore (face value).  A new revised Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement between India and Korea for the Avoidance of Double Taxation and the Prevention of Fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income was signed on 18th May 2015. It came into force on 12th September 2016.  The Union Cabinet approved to release an instalment of Dearness Allowance to Central Government employees and Dearness Relief to Pensioners w.e.f. 01.07.2016 representing an increase of 2 per cent of the revised Basic Pay/Pension, to compensate for price rise.  The Union Cabinet approved for establishment and operationalisation of a National Academic Depository. ***** 7TABLES Table 1: Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity (at 2011-12 Prices) (in per cent) Growth Share in GVA 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Sector (2nd RE) (1st RE) (PE) (2nd RE) (1st RE) (PE) Agriculture, forestry & fishing 4.2 -0.2 1.2 17.5 16.3 15.4 Industry 5.0 5.9 7.4 31.6 31.2 31.3 Mining & quarrying 3.0 10.8 7.4 2.9 3.0 3.1 Manufacturing 5.6 5.5 9.3 17.4 17.1 17.5 Electricity, gas ,water supply & other utility services 4.7 8.0 6.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 Construction 4.6 4.4 3.9 9.0 8.8 8.5 Services 7.8 10.3 8.9 51.0 52.5 53.4 Trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting services 7.8 9.8 9.0 18.4 18.9 19.2 Financial, real estate & professional services 10.1 10.6 10.3 20.3 21.0 21.6 Public administration, defence and other Services 4.5 10.7 6.6 12.3 12.7 12.6 GVA at basic prices 6.3 7.1 7.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 GDP at market prices 6.6 7.2 7.6 --- --- --- Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO). 2nd RE: Second Revised Estiamtes , 1st RE: First Revised Estiamtes, PE: Provisional Estimates. Table 2: Quarter-wise Growth of GVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (per cent) Sectors 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2.3 2.8 -2.4 -1.7 2.6 2.0 -1.0 2.3 1.8 3.3 Industry 8.0 5.9 3.8 5.7 6.7 6.3 8.6 7.9 6.0 5.2 Mining & quarrying 16.5 7.0 9.1 10.1 8.5 5.0 7.1 8.6 -0.4 -1.5 Manufacturing 7.9 5.8 1.7 6.6 7.3 9.2 11.5 9.3 9.1 7.1 Electricity, gas ,water 10.2 8.8 8.8 4.4 4.0 7.5 5.6 9.3 9.4 3.5 supply & other utility services Construction 5.0 5.3 4.9 2.6 5.6 0.8 4.6 4.5 1.5 3.5 Services 8.6 10.7 12.9 9.3 8.8 9.0 9.1 8.7 9.6 8.9 Trade, hotels, transport, 11.6 8.4 6.2 13.1 10.0 6.7 9.2 9.9 8.1 7.1 communication and services related to broadcasting Financial, real estate & 8.5 12.7 12.1 9.0 9.3 11.9 10.5 9.1 9.4 8.2 professional services Public administration, 4.2 10.3 25.3 4.1 5.9 6.9 7.2 6.4 12.3 12.5 defence and Other Services GVA at Basic Price 7.4 8.1 6.7 6.2 7.2 7.3 6.9 7.4 7.3 7.1 GDP at market prices 7.5 8.3 6.6 6.7 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.9 7.1 7.3 Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO). 8Table 3: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (1st Adv. Est.) Crops Production (in Million Tonnes) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 (4th AE) (1st AE) Total Foodgrains 257.1 265.0 252.0 252.2 135.0 Rice 105.2 106.7 105.5 104.3 93.9 Wheat 93.5 95.9 86.5 93.5 -- Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 42.9 37.9 32.5 Total Pulses 18.3 19.3 17.2 16.5 8.7 Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 27.5 25.3 23.4 Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 362.3 352.2 305.2 Cotton# 34.2 35.9 34.8 30.1 32.1 Source: DES, DAC&FW, M/o Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. 1st AE: 1st Advance Estimates of Kharif crops only, 4th AE : Fourth Advance Estimates, # Million bales of 170 kgs. each. Table 4 : Procurement of Crops in Million Tonnes Crops 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Rice# 35.0 34.0 31.8 32.0 34.2 11.9$ Wheat@ 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0 28.1 23.0$ Total 63.3 72.2 56.9 60.2 62.3 34.9 # Kharif Marketing Season (October-September), @ Rabi Marketing Season (April-March), $ Position as on 01.11.2016 Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution. Table 5: Off-Take of Food Grains (Million Tonnes) Crops 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 (Till September) Rice 32.6 29.2 30.7 31.8 18.4 Wheat 33.2 30.6 25.2 31.8 16.8 Total 65.8 59.8 55.9 63.6 35.2 (Rice & Wheat) Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution. Table 6: Stocks of Food Grains (Million Tonnes) Crops November 1, 2015 November 1, 2016 1. Rice 11.3 12.5 2. Unmilled Paddy# 14.6 18.7 3. Converted Unmilled Paddy in terms of 9.8 12.5 Rice 4. Wheat 30.1 18.8 Total (Rice & Wheat)(1+3+4) 51.2 43.9 # Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state agencies in terms of rice. 9Table 7: Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production Industry Group April-Sept. 2015-16 April-Sept. 2016-17 Sept. 2015 Sept. 2016 General index 4.0 -0.1 3.7 0.7 Mining 1.7 0.0 3.5 -3.1 Manufacturing 4.2 -0.8 2.7 0.9 Electricity 4.5 5.1 11.4 2.4 Basic goods 4.5 4.0 4.2 4.0 Capital goods 7.8 -21.4 10.1 -21.6 Intermediate goods 1.9 3.7 1.8 2.2 Consumer goods 2.5 1.7 1.2 6.0 Durables 7.7 7.6 8.5 14.0 Non-durables -0.6 -2.4 -3.6 0.1 Source: Central Statistics Office. Table 8: Production Growth (per cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries Industry April-Oct. April-Oct. October. 2015 October. 2016 2015-16 2016-17 Coal 4.4 0.7 6.6 -1.6 Crude oil 0.1 -3.3 -2.1 -3.2 Natural Gas -2.1 -4.0 -1.8 -1.4 Refinery Products 2.4 8.9 -4.4 15.1 Fertilizers 10.6 4.8 16.8 0.8 Steel -0.7 8.5 -5.5 16.9 Cement 2.9 4.8 12.2 6.2 Electricity 5.9 4.7 13.8 2.8 Overall growth 2.8 4.9 3.8 6.6 Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, DIPP (Ministry of Commerce & Industry) Table 9: Broad Money (M3) and its sources (₹ Billion) Item Outstanding as on Y-O-Y Growth 2016 2015 2016 Mar. 31 Oct. 14 % % M3 1,16,176.2 123,931.5 10.6 11.5 Sources Net Bank Credit to Government 32,384.8 37,340.0 5.8 13.8 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 78,030.7 79,118.8 9.2 8.5 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector 25,337.2 25,900.7 20.1 7.3 Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public 219.1 232.7 12.1 12.7 Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 19,795.6 18,660.7 7.8 -1.2 Source: RBI 10Table 10 : Merchandise Exports and Imports (in US$ million) Item 2015-16 2015 2016 % Change 2015-16 2016-17 % Change October (April-October) Exports 262290 21456 23513 9.6 155179 154913 -0.2 Imports 381007 31148 33674 8.1 233418 208083 -10.9 Oil Imports 82944 6868 7141 4.0 55139 46439 -15.8 Non-Oil 298062 24280 26532 9.3 178279 161645 -9.3 Imports Trade Deficit -118716 -9692 -10160 - -78239 -53170 - Source: Provisional data as per the Press Note of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry Table 11: Foreign Exchange Reserves (in Billion) End of Financial Year Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation (Rupees ) (US Dollar) (Rupees ) (US Dollar ) At the end of year (Variation over last year) 2012-13 15884 292.0 823 -2.4 2013-14 18284 304.2 2400 12.2 2014-15 21376 341.6 3093 37.4 2015-16 23787 360.2 2411 18.6 At the end of month (Variation over last month) April-2015 22110 351.9 733 10.2 May-2015 22437 352.5 328 0.6 June-2015 22660 356.0 222 3.5 July-2015 22580 353.5 -80 -2.5 August-2015 23199 351.4 619 2.1 September -2015 22940 350.3 -259 1.1 October-2015 23025 354.2 85 3.9 November-2015 23285 350.2 260 -3.9 December 2015 23135 350.4 -150 0.1 January 2016 23586 349.6 370 -2.4 February 2016 23744 348.4 158 -1.2 March 2016 23787 360.2 44 11.8 April 2016 24040 363.0 253 2.9 May 2016 24174 361.6 134 -1.4 June 2016 24442 363.5 268 1.9 July 2016 24446 366.5 4 3.0 August 2016 24448 366.8 2 0.3 September 2016 24693 372.0 245 5.2 October 2016 24413 366.2 -280 -5.8 Source: RBI 11Table 12 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency* US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951 March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621 March 2015 62.4498 93.4422 0.5190 67.5548 March 2016 67.0581 95.3894 0.5935 74.4543 2015-16 April 2015 62.7532 93.9083 0.5253 67.7934 May 2015 63.8003 98.8205 0.5283 71.2135 June 2015 63.8607 99.3620 0.5165 71.5874 July 2015 63.6350 99.0771 0.5161 70.0292 August 2015 65.0723 101.4870 0.5287 72.5145 September 2015 66.2178 101.6029 0.5515 74.3909 October 2015 65.0580 99.7563 0.5419 73.0629 2016-17 April 2016 66.4695 95.2721 0.6070 75.4092 May 2016 66.9067 97.2485 0.6148 75.6918 June 2016 67.2969 95.5533 0.6389 75.5728 July 2016 67.2076 88.5198 0.6449 74.3591 August 2016 66.9396 87.7976 0.6606 75.0042 September 2016 66.7377 87.7152 0.6549 74.8257 October 2016 66.7481 82.5534 0.6438 73.6340 Source: Reserve Bank of India. * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis). ** Data from March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate. Table 13: Balance of Payments (US $ billion) 2014-15 2015-16 2015-16 2016-17 (April-March) Q1 Q1 Exports, f.o.b 316.5 266.4 68.0 66.6 Imports, c.i.f 461.5 396.4 102.2 90.5 Trade balance -144.9 -130.1 -34.2 -23.8 Net services 76.5 69.7 17.8 15.8 Invisibles (net) 118.1 107.9 28.0 23.5 Current A/C Balance -26.9 -22.2 -6.1 -0.3 Capital/Finance A/C of Which Foreign Investment (net) 73.5 31.9 10.2 6.2 FDI (net) 31.3 36.0 10.0 4.1 Portfolio (net) 42.2 -4.1 0.2 2.1 Non-Resident Deposits (net) 14.1 16.1 5.9 1.4 Other capital flows (net) -2.5 -4.8 0.8 1.2 Total CapitalA/C (net) 88.3 40.1 17.6 7.3 Reserve Movement (-increase) and (+ decrease) -61.4 -17.9 -11.4 -7.0 Memo Items/Assumptions Current Account Balance/GDP (%) -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -0.1 Net Capital Flows/GDP (%) 4.3 1.9 3.5 1.4 Source: Reserve Bank of India 12Table 14: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)* October 2015 2015-16 October 2016 2016-17 (Apr.-Oct.) (Apr.-Oct.) External Assistance (Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 1,695.0 20,692.8 2,210.3 15,315.7 2) Repayments 1,020.7 14,411.3 943.4 12,412.8 3) Interest Payments 370.5 2,717.5 287.8 1988.12 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 674.3 6,281.6 1,267.0 2,902.9 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 303.8 3,564.1 979.2 914.8 External Assistance (Non-Government Account) 1) Gross Disbursement 834.2 1,489.3 402.7 3,273.6 2) Repayments 0.0 2,127.5 4.7 1,732.6 3) Interest Payments 1.5 297.4 0.5 240.5 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 834.2 -638.2 398.0 1,541.0 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 832.6 -935.6 397.6 1,300.5 Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 194.4 518.1 168.2 1,228.9 2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 194.4 518.1 168.2 1,228.9 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 194.4 518.1 168.2 1,228.9 Non-Government Grants 1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 0.0 4.0 48.8 2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 0.0 4.0 48.8 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 0.0 4.0 48.8 Grand Total 1) Gross Disbursements 2,723.6 22,700.2 2,785.3 19,866.9 2) Repayments 1,020.7 16,538.8 948.0 14,145.4 3) Interest Payments 372.0 3,014.9 288.2 2,228.7 4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 1,702.9 6,161.4 1,837.2 5,721.6 5) Net Transfers (4-3) 1,330.8 3,146.5 1,549.0 3,492.9 *: Data are provisional. Source: Office of the Controller of Aid, Accounts and Audit, Ministry of Finance Table 15: Year-on-Year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (in per cent) October 2015 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 Energy -43.8 -3.2 -2.6 6.6 Non-energy -15.1 2.1 2.6 2.0 Agriculture -11.5 3.9 5.4 3.1 Beverages -13.1 0.2 3.4 1.8 Food -13.0 7.6 8.5 5.9 Raw Materials -6.1 -3.4 -1.6 -3.4 Fertilizers -9.3 -25.4 -23.8 -23.4 Metals & Minerals -24.7 1.9 -0.9 2.9 Precious Metals -6.1 21.6 19.8 9.4 Source: World Bank 13Table 16: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (in per cent) WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI (NS-Combined) Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012 2014-15 2.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 5.9 2015-16 -2.5 5.6 4.4 4.6 4.9 Oct-2015 -3.7 6.3 4.4 4.7 5.0 Nov-2015 -2.0 6.7 4.9 5.0 5.4 Dec-2015 -1.1 6.3 5.7 5.8 5.6 Jan-2016 -1.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.7 Feb-2016 -0.9 5.5 5.0 5.3 5.3 Mar-2016 -0.5 5.5 5.0 5.1 4.8 Apr-2016 0.8 5.9 5.3 5.6 5.5 May-2016 1.2 6.6 6.0 6.1 5.8 June-2016 2.1 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.8 July-2016 3.7 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.1 August 2016 3.9 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.0 Sept- 2016 3.6 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4 Oct-2015 3.4 - 3.2 3.3 4.2 Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI (New Series-Combined) inflation for last one month are provisional. Source: Office of Economic Adviser- DIPP, Labour Bureau and Central Statistics Office. Table 17: Fiscal Indicators- Rolling Targets as Percentage of GDP (at current market prices) 2014-15 Revised Provisional Budget Targets for Estimates Actual Estimates 2015-16 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Gross Tax Revenue 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 Tax Revenue (net to Centre) 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 Non-Tax Revenue 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.8 Total Expenditure 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.1 12.6 12.2 Major Subsidy 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 Total Defence Expenditure 1.76 1.66 1.66 1.65 1.6 1.6 Total outstanding liabilities at # 47.6 # 47.1 46.8 44.4 the end of the year Revenue Deficit 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.3 Effective Revenue Deficit 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.0 Fiscal Deficit 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.0 3.0 Notes: 1. The ratio to GDP at current market prices are based on the CSO’s National Accounts 2011-12 Series. 2. “Total outstanding liabilities” include external public debt at current exchange rates. For projections, constant exchange rates have been assumed. Liabilities do not include part of NSSF and total MSS liabilities which are not used for Central Government deficit. # Note available 14Table 18: Trends in Central Government Finances : April-September 2016-17 Items Budget Growth Growth Estimates April-September (April- (April- Sept.) Sept.) 2016-17 2015-16 2016-17 2015-16 2016-17 (Rs. Crore) (Rs Crore) (Rs. Crore) (Per cent) (Per cent) 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.Revenue Receipts 1377022 513369 566923 22.8 10.4 Gross tax revenue⃰ 1630888 596884 695693 21.7 16.6 Tax (net to Centre) 1054101 369736 448155 14.4 21.2 Non Tax Revenue 322921 143633 118768 51.7 -17.3 2.Capital Receipts 601038 397176 460805 -10.6 16.0 of which Recovery of loans 10634 5810 6802 11.5 17.1 Other Receipts 56500 12803 6015 10481.0 -53.0 Borrowings and other liabilities 533904 378563 447988 -13.7 18.3 3.Total Receipts (1+2) 1978060 910545 1027728 5.6 12.9 4.Non-Plan Expenditure 1 4 2 8 0 5 0 656729 705095 6.7 7.4 (a)+(b) (a) Revenue Account 1327408 611379 648296 7.6 6.0 of which: Interest payments 492670 197653 213229 6.5 7.9 Major Subsidies 231782 140259 142643 -12.4 1.7 Pensions 123368 55171 59643 19.4 8.1 (b) Capital Account 100642 45350 56799 -4.7 25.2 5.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 550010 253816 322633 3.1 27.1 (i) Revenue Account 403628 170998 244507 -12.2 43.0 (ii) Capital Account 146382 82818 78126 60.7 -5.7 6.Total Expenditure 1978060 910545 1027728 5.6 12.9 (4)+(5)=(a)+(b) (a)Revenue Expenditure 1731036 782377 892803 2.5 14.1 (b)Of which Grants for creation of 166840 64874 100762 -2.1 55.3 Capital Assets (c)Capital Expenditure 247024 128168 134925 29.3 5.3 7.Revenue Deficit 354014 269008 325880 -22.0 21.1 8.Effective Revenue Deficit (7-6(b)) 187174 204134 225118 -26.8 10.3 9.Fiscal Deficit 533904 378563 447988 -13.7 18.3 10.Primary Deficit 41234 180910 234759 -28.5 29.8 Source: Controller Genral of Accounts, *: Gross Tax Revenue is prior to devolution to the States. ******* 15