**Executive Summary**
The document addresses a parliamentary question regarding the accuracy of cyclone forecasts issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). It highlights improvements in forecasting accuracy from 2016-2025 due to continuous upgrades in technology and analysis. It also presents data on cyclone-related deaths from 2014-2023 as well as annual average track forecast errors (km) and annual average intensity forecast errors (kt) during 2016-2025. The information was submitted on February 5, 2026.
**Key Points / Main Content**
* **Forecast Accuracy Improvement:**
* Significant improvement in cyclone forecast accuracy over the last decade.
* Improvement in track forecast accuracy by 20-25%.
* Landfall and intensity forecast accuracy improved by 35-45% in 2021-2025 compared to 2016-2020.
* **Forecasting and Warning System:**
* IMD's cyclone forecasting and warning system is highly accurate in track and intensity prediction.
* Utilizes state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models, multi-model ensemble, advanced data assimilation techniques, and continuous monitoring.
* Employs satellites, Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs), ocean buoys, coastal observational networks, and in-house developed Decision Support Systems (DSS).
* **Mission Mausam:**
* Government of India launched Mission Mausam in early 2025.
* Aims to expand and modernize India's weather observation network and forecasting systems.
* Includes increasing weather stations, upgrading radar networks, and using machine-learning and modern models.
* Utilizes High Performance Computing Systems (HPCSs) and intelligent Decision Support Systems (DSSs).
* **Data on Deaths:**
* Presents State/UT-wise data on deaths due to cyclones from 2014-2023.
* Data sourced from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) and the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA).
* Early warnings and timely action by the government have significantly reduced loss of life due to cyclones.
* **Annual Averages (2016-2025):**
* The document includes tables with annual averages of track forecast errors, intensity forecast errors, and landfall point errors during 2016-2025.
**Impact Analysis**
**Stakeholder: Government (Central & State)**
* **Impact:** The government has significantly reduced loss of life in recent times by providing early warnings and taking timely action
* **Action Required:** Continue to improve the monitoring, forecasting, and dissemination of warning infrastructure by expanding and modernizing India's weather observation network and forecasting systems.
**Stakeholder: India Meteorological Department (IMD)**
* **Impact:** IMD is responsible for year-wise analysis of the accuracy of cyclone forecasts
* **Action Required:** Continue to work towards improving forecasting accuracy through the use of improved forecasting technologies and techniques.
**Stakeholder: General Public**
* **Impact:** Benefits from improved accuracy in cyclone forecasting, which enables better preparedness and reduced risk of loss of life and property.
* **Action Required:** Stay informed about cyclone forecasts and heed warnings issued by authorities.
Key Entities Referenced
India Meteorological Department (IMD): Primary agency responsible for cyclone forecasting and warnings in India.
Ministry of Earth Sciences: The central ministry to which the IMD is affiliated, overseeing weather forecasting and related activities.
Mission Mausam: A Government of India initiative launched in early 2025 to improve weather observation and forecasting.