Parliament Question: Accuracy of cyclone forecasts

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES RAJYA SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 682 ANSWERED ON 05/02/2026 ACCURACY OF CYCLONE FORECASTS 682. SHRI RANDEEP SINGH SURJEWALA: Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state: (a) the year-wise analysis of accuracy of cyclone forecasts issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) during the last five years, including lead time and track/intensity prediction accuracy; (b) the number of cyclones making landfall in India each year during that period and the number of lives lost in each of these events, district-wise; and (c) the steps taken to strengthen real-time forecasting, impact-based warnings, community dissemination systems and infrastructure resilience in cyclone-prone regions? ANSWER THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH) (a) The year-wise analysis of the accuracy of cyclone forecasts, including track, intensity, and landfall, issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 2016–2025 is provided in Annexure-1. There has been significant improvement in cyclone forecast accuracy during the last decade due to the continuous upgradation of observations, analysis, and prediction tools & techniques, improvements in numerical modeling, including enhanced data assimilation, higher resolution, improved physics, warning products generation and dissemination, etc. There is an improvement in track forecast accuracy by 20 to 25%, landfall and intensity (Maximum Sustained Wind- MSW) forecast accuracy by 35 to 45% in the recent five years (2021-2025) compared to the previous five years (2016-2020). (b) The latest data on deaths due to cyclones in the State/UT-wise during 2014-2023, as available from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), is given in Annexure-2 along with the number of cyclones making landfall in India (last row). The early warnings by the IMD and the timely action taken by the Government (Central & State) have significantly reduced the loss of life due to cyclones in recent times. (c) IMD’s cyclone forecasting and warning system is distinguished by its high accuracy in track and intensity prediction, achieved through the use of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models, multi-model ensemble, advanced data assimilation techniques, and continuous monitoring using satellites, Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs), ocean buoys, coastal observational networks and finally the in-house developed Decision Support System (DSS) for the generation forecasts and warnings.In order to further improve the monitoring, forecasting, and dissemination of warning infrastructure, the Government of India has launched Mission Mausam in early 2025, which aims to expand and modernise India’s weather observation network and forecasting systems. This includes increasing the number of weather stations, upgrading radar networks, and using machine-learning and modern models to improve forecasting accuracy, with coherent support from High Performance Computing Systems (HPCSs) and intelligent Decision Support Systems (DSSs).Annexure-1 Annual average track forecast errors (km) during 2016-2025: 36- 48- 72- 84- 96- 120- Year 12-hr 24-hr 60-hr 108-hr hr hr hr hr hr hr 2016 59.7 96.1 129.6 185.1 238 291.7 330.4 379.5 344.1 438.3 2017 43.7 61.4 87.2 107.6 190.1 189.6 292.5 304.2 158.7 159.7 2018 55.4 87.5 99.2 124.2 131.2 134.3 165.8 189 220.8 247.6 2019 41 68.6 87.8 103.7 120.4 148.6 177.7 217.8 261.3 337.5 2020 50.3 72.5 76.4 85.3 89.1 111.4 105.5 88.8 86.3 93.3 2021 43.7 62.9 82.6 91.4 105.7 164 248 15.3 2022 42.3 77.5 108 167.1 204.2 315.3 378.2 535.3 576.5 2023 48.3 76.5 98.4 120.7 138.8 147.2 157.3 176.8 181.5 224.8 2024 37.6 65.6 76.9 83.5 100.3 114 70 153 2025 42 80 102 120 169 204 245 129 Annual average intensity forecast errors (kt) during 2016-2025: 36- 48- 72- 84- 96- 108- Year 12-hr 24-hr 60-hr 120-hr hr hr hr hr hr hr 2016 4.6 7.2 8.5 8.3 9.7 11.2 14 18.4 9.5 5 2017 4.3 5.7 10.8 12.4 9 8.2 9 7.8 5 3.7 2018 4.8 8.2 12 11.6 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.8 13.3 9.2 2019 5.5 8.7 11.7 12.7 14.7 17.4 19.3 19.8 19.9 21.2 2020 5 7.1 8.7 8.8 9.7 9.3 10.8 13.9 8.7 4.3 2021 3.5 6.2 8.6 9.5 9.3 10.8 18.8 21 2022 2.4 3.8 4.2 4 3.8 5 5.6 6.7 10.3 2023 3.7 7.3 9.1 10.7 11.3 12.5 13.9 16.5 15.3 18.3 2024 2.3 4.1 5.2 5.3 4.7 5 5 5 2025 1.7 3.1 4.7 2.7 3.5 3.9 2.9 1 1 kt = 1.85 kmph Annual average landfall point errors during 2016-2025: 48- 60- 72- 84- 96- Year 12-hr 24-hr 36-hr 108-hr 120-hr hr hr hr hr hr 2016 7.8 14.1 71.6 127.2 129.2 180.1 253.2 286 403.4 2017 19.1 50.4 29.8 59 2018 26.7 44 42.1 40.3 56.4 67.6 2019 8.9 27.1 21.9 34.7 15 37.2 2020 10 17.6 53.5 69.7 27.7 43 77 47 47 2021 6.8 16.4 10.6 19.8 97 158.5 2022 16.5 14.8 21.7 24.5 20.2 4.5 4.9 2023 13.0 17.0 31.2 48.8 65.8 65.7 66.6 71.1 9.1 2024 5.4 14.4 19 24 18 2.2 1.1 1.1 2025 71 76 113 82 113 121 128Annexure-2 State/UT-wise Number of Deaths d ue to Cyclones During 2014-2023 S 201 201 201 201 201 202 202 202 202 L State/UT 2014 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 Andhra 41 0 3 1 7 0 3 0 1 1 1 Pradesh Arunachal 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 Pradesh 3 Assam 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 4 Bihar 1 0 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 Chhattisgar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 h 6 Goa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 Gujarat 6 0 0 0 0 3 0 40 0 0 8 Haryana 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Himachal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Pradesh 10 Jharkhand 3 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 11 Karnataka 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 12 Kerala 0 0 0 113 1 0 0 0 0 0 Madhya 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Pradesh 14 Maharashtra 2 0 3 0 1 0 2 72 0 0 15 Manipur 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 16 Meghalaya 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 17 Mizoram 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 Nagaland 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 Odisha 0 0 0 0 6 14 0 0 0 0 20 Punjab 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 21 Rajasthan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 Sikkim 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 Tamil Nadu 0 0 2 6 95 0 0 0 0 0 24 Telangana 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 Tripura 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 Uttar 7 13 0 3 5 11 0 0 0 0 26 Pradesh 27 Uttarakhand 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 West 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 2 2 0 28 Bengal Total number of 62 15 15 133 124 33 35 115 9 1 deaths (in 28 States) A & N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 29 Islands 30 Chandigarh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0D&N Haveli and 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Daman&Diu 31 @+ 32 Delhi UT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jammu & 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 33 Kashmir @* 34 Ladakh @ - - - - - - 0 0 0 0 35 Lakshadweep 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 Puducherry 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Number of 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 0 1 Deaths (in 8 UTs) Total deaths in the 62 15 15 133 125 33 37 118 9 2 country Number of Cyclones that 1 0 1 0 3 2 4 3 1 1 made landfall Source of data regarding number of deaths: National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). As per the data provided by the State/UTs ‘+’ Combined data of erstwhile D & N HAVELI AND DAMAN & DIU UT during 2014-2019 ‘*’ Data of erstwhile JAMMU & KASHMIR State, including LADAKH, during 2014-2019 ‘@’ Data of the newly created Union Territory ********