**Executive Summary**
This document, a response to a Parliament Question posted on February 12, 2026, by PIB Delhi, details the accuracy and advancements in India's weather forecasting systems. It highlights improvements in monsoonal rainfall prediction accuracy by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The document also lists locations of operational Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) across India as of 2026.
**Key Points / Main Content**
* **Forecasting Strategy:**
* IMD follows a seamless forecasting strategy for monsoonal rainfall, issuing forecasts and warnings at different time and spatial scales.
* Forecasting includes nowcasting (up to 6 hours), short to medium range (up to 7 days), extended range (up to 4 weeks), and monthly/seasonal long-range forecasts.
* **Accuracy Assessment (2025):**
* Seasonal long-range forecasts for the Southwest Monsoon were highly accurate, with the actual rainfall closely matching the forecast.
* Heavy rainfall forecast performance demonstrated high skill, with a Probability of Detection of 0.85.
* **Technological Advancements:**
* Since 2021, IMD has adopted a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach for monthly and seasonal forecasting.
* The Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS), an advanced computer simulation model, is operational at a 6 km spatial resolution.
* Computing facilities have been substantially increased, with the implementation of "Arunika" and "Arka" boosting computing power to 28 Peta FLOPS.
* IMD is integrating AI and ML methods for enhanced model performance.
* The weather observation system comprises 48 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) covering approximately 92% of the country, along with satellite-based monitoring and around 6,300 rain gauge stations.
* **Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) Network:**
* A total of 48 DWRs are installed and operational across India (locations listed in Annexure-1).
* The DWR network has helped improve monitoring and forecasting of severe weather events.
* **Monsoon Rainfall Verification:**
* Verification details for All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall forecasts from 2021 to 2025 are provided, showing accuracy.
**Impact Analysis**
**Stakeholder: General Public**
* **Impact:** Improved and more accurate weather forecasts leading to better preparedness for severe weather events.
* **Action Required:** Stay informed about weather forecasts and warnings issued by IMD through official channels.
**Stakeholder: Farmers**
* **Impact:** More reliable rainfall forecasts can aid in better crop planning, irrigation management, and overall agricultural productivity.
* **Action Required:** Utilize weather forecasts to make informed decisions regarding planting, harvesting, and other agricultural activities.
**Stakeholder: Disaster Management Agencies**
* **Impact:** Enhanced forecasting capabilities provide timely warnings, facilitating effective disaster preparedness and response.
* **Action Required:** Use IMD forecasts and radar data for planning evacuation strategies and resource allocation during extreme weather conditions.
**Stakeholder: Researchers and Scientists**
* **Impact:** Access to advanced weather models and data for improving forecast accuracy and studying climate patterns.
* **Action Required:** Collaborate with IMD to develop and refine weather forecasting models and technologies.
**Stakeholder: India Meteorological Department (IMD)**
* **Impact:** Highlights the advancements and accuracy of weather forecasting, enabling improved disaster preparedness.
* **Action Required:** Continue to integrate new technology to further improve monitoring and forecasting of severe weather events.
Key Entities Referenced
India Meteorological Department (IMD): The primary organization responsible for weather forecasting and related services, mentioned throughout the document.
Doppler Weather Radar (DWR): Network of weather radars across the country used for weather monitoring and forecasting.
Ministry of Earth Sciences: The ministry under which the IMD operates and which has enhanced computing power for weather forecasting.
Mission Mausam: Project to develop advanced forecasting tools, including the Bharat Forecast System.
Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS): Advanced computer simulation model developed under Mission Mausam for weather forecasting.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: ACCURACY OF
WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Posted On: 12 FEB 2026 12:53PM by PIB Delhi
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been following a seamless forecasting strategy for
monsoonal rainfall. As per this strategy, it issues forecasts and warnings on different time scales and for
different spatial scales. Nowcasting- up to six hours for all types of severe weather at all districts and
around 1200 stations. Short to medium range (up to 7 days) forecasts for rainfall over cities, blocks,
districts, and meteorological subdivisions. Extended range (up to 4 weeks) forecasts for 36 meteorological
sub-divisions. Monthly and seasonal long-range forecasts for rainfall for the whole country and for
homogenous region.
The latest assessment of the accuracy of its seasonal long range for Southwest Monsoon in the current
year 2025 shows it was highly accurate and the forecast, issued in April 2025, for the southwest monsoon
(June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was 105% of long period average (LPA) while the
actual season rainfall for the country as a whole was 108 % of LPA and it was within errors range of the
forecast issued. The spatial probability forecasts were also largely accurate across most regions of the
country. Similarly, the monthly rainfall forecasts closely matched the observed values and remained within
the forecast limits.
The latest assessment of Heavy rainfall Forecast Performance shows in 2025, the heavy rainfall forecast
demonstrated high skill, with Probability of Detection of 0.85, indicating it was in overall accuracy.
IMD has adopted a new strategy for monthly and seasonal forecasting since 2021 based on the Multi-
Model Ensemble (MME) approach. The strategy utilizes coupled global climate models (CGCMs from
various global climate prediction and research centers, including IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate
Forecasting System (MMCFS). The performance of IMD's seasonal forecasting system has shown
improvement following the adoption of the MME-based approach. The verification details of IMD's
seasonal forecasts for All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall for the period 2021 to 2025 are given below:
Year ALL India Monsoon Rainfall (LPA)
Actual (%) Forecast (%) Remark
2021 99 101 Accurate2022 106.5 103 Accurate
2023 95 96 Accurate
2024 108 106 Accurate
2025 108 106 Accurate
***Model error ± 4% of LPA
For seasonal and short-range weather prediction, IMD uses a range of advanced tools, models, and
observation systems as part of its operational forecasting framework. Under the Mission Mausam project,
already Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS), an advanced computer simulation model has been developed,
and it has been operational at a very high spatial resolution of 6 km. It has also a capability to provide
predictions of rainfall events up to 10 days, covering the short and medium range. Further, to support such
high-resolution models running regularly, the Computing facilities have also been substantially increased
to integrate voluminous data and to run meso-scale, regional, and global models at higher resolution.
Recently, with the implementation of the High Power Computing Systems "Arunika" and "Arka", the
Ministry of Earth Sciences has enhanced its total computing power to 28 Peta FLOPS in 2025, a
substantial increase from the previous capacity of 6.8 Peta FLOPS in 2014.
IMD is gradually integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)–based methods to
enhance model performance, post-process model outputs, pattern recognition, bias correction, and
probabilistic forecast interpretation. The weather observation system presently consists of 48 Doppler
Weather Radars (DWRs) covering nearly 92% of the country, along with high-resolution satellite-based
monitoring and around 6,300 rain gauge stations.
There are a total of 48 DWRs installed and operational in India. The locations where the DWR network
has been established across the country are given in Annexure-1. This has helped IMD improve
monitoring and forecasting of severe events such as cloudbursts, thunderstorms, lightning, and cyclones.
This information was submitted by Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr.
Jitendra Singh in Rajya Sabha on 12th February 2026.
Annexure-1
Locations of the current Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) network in the country:
S. No. State Location
1. Andhra Pradesh Machilipatnam2. Andhra Pradesh Visakhapatnam
3. Andhra Pradesh Sriharikota, ISRO
4. Assam Mohanbari
5. Assam Jorhat
6. Bihar Patna
7. Chhattisgarh Raipur
8. Goa Goa
9. Gujarat Bhuj
10. Himachal Pradesh Jot
11. Himachal Pradesh Murari Devi
12. Himachal Pradesh Kufri
13. Karnataka Mangalore
14. Kerala Kochi
15. Kerala VSSC, Thiruvananthpuram
(ISRO)
16. Madhya Pradesh Bhopal
17. Madhya Pradesh Silkheda (IITM)
18. Maharashtra Mumbai
19. Maharashtra Nagpur
20. Maharashtra IITM Solapur
21. Maharashtra Veravali
22. Maharashtra Mumbai, Juhu (IITM)23. Maharashtra Mumbai, Panvel (IITM)
24. Maharashtra Mumbai, Kalyan, Dombivali (IITM)
25. Maharashtra Mumbai, Vasai, Virar (IITM)
Maharashtra Mahabaleshwar (IITM)
26.
27. Meghalaya Cherrapunji (ISRO)
28. Odisha Gopalpur
29. Odisha Paradip
30. Punjab Patiala
31. Rajasthan Jaipur
32. Tamil Nadu Chennai
33. Tamil Nadu Karaikal
34. Tamil Nadu NIOT Chennai
35. Telangana Hyderabad
36. Tripura Agartala
37. Uttarakhand Lansdowne
38. Uttarakhand Mukteshwar
39. Uttarakhand Surkanda Devi
40. Uttar Pradesh Lucknow
41. West Bengal Kolkata
42. Jammu & Kashmir Banihal Top
43. Jammu & Kashmir Jammu
44. Jammu & Kashmir Srinagar45. Delhi Ayanagar
46. Delhi Palam
47. Delhi HQ Mausam Bhawan
48. Ladakh Leh
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