**Executive Summary**
This document reports on the accuracy of weather forecasts, the dissemination of early warnings, and the delivery of climate services for the year 2025. It highlights improvements in weather forecasting and dissemination, especially concerning monsoon forecasts. The information was submitted to Lok Sabha on 11th February 2026.
**Key Points / Main Content**
* **Weather Forecast Accuracy in 2025**
* Southwest monsoon forecast: 105% of Long Period Average (LPA) with ± 5% error (April 2025), updated to 106% of LPA with ± 4% error (end of May 2025); actual rainfall was 108% of LPA.
* Spatial and monthly rainfall forecasts: Largely accurate across regions and matched observed values.
* Forecast accuracy over Delhi: Rainfall (93%), max temperature (84%), minimum temperature (68%), dense fog occurrences (75%).
* **Dissemination of Early Warnings & Climate Services**
* IMD uses various digital platforms: Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), Application Programming Interface, Website, Mobile Apps, Social media, etc.
* 77.64 Cr SMSs sent out during Cyclone "MonTha."
* Real-time data, forecasts, and warnings timely shared and disseminated to State Emergency Operation Centres.
* **Strengthening Weather and Climate Forecasting Systems**
* Installation of additional AWS, ARG, and DWR.
* Improvement of data integration and development of GIS-based DSS.
* Improvement of NWP and climate models, real-time monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems.
* Shift to sector-specific, color-coded Impact-based Forecast (IBF) and risk-based warning (RBW) up to district/sub-city levels.
* Application of AI/ML.
* Customization of bulletins and warnings.
* Increased computational power and use of supercomputers (Arka and Arunika).
* Panchayat Mausam Seva.
* State-of-the-art dissemination system (mobile app, CAP, WhatsApp groups, etc.).
* **Mission Mausam**
* A new Central Sector Scheme launched to make Bharat a "Weather-ready and Climate-smart" nation, with IMD as a major player.
**Impact Analysis**
**Stakeholder:** Government (Ministry of Earth Sciences)
* **Impact:** The government has successfully improved weather and climate forecasting systems.
* **Action Required:** Continue strengthening these systems and implementing new techniques/technologies.
**Stakeholder:** India Meteorological Department (IMD)
* **Impact:** Recognized as a major player in making Bharat a "Weather-ready and Climate-smart" nation.
* **Action Required:** Maintain accurate forecasting, improve dissemination methods, and support the "Mission Mausam" scheme.
**Stakeholder:** State Emergency Operation Centres
* **Impact:** Benefit from timely dissemination of real-time data, forecasts, and warnings.
* **Action Required:** Utilize the information provided by IMD to prepare for and respond to weather-related events.
**Stakeholder:** Citizens/Public
* **Impact:** Receive improved weather forecasts and early warnings through various digital platforms.
* **Action Required:** Stay informed about weather conditions and heed warnings to ensure personal safety.
Key Entities Referenced
India Meteorological Department (IMD): Primary agency responsible for weather forecasting mentioned in the document.
Mission Mausam: A Central Sector Scheme launched by MoES to make Bharat a weather-ready and climate-smart nation.
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES): The ministry responsible for the Mission Mausam scheme and related initiatives.
Common Alerting Protocol (CAP): A dissemination system for early warnings.
Delhi: The forecasts mentioned have accuracy percentages for the weather parameters in Delhi.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: ACCURACY OF
WEATHER FORECASTS
Posted On: 11 FEB 2026 11:42AM by PIB Delhi
There have been significant improvements achieved in the accuracy of weather forecasts, the
dissemination of early warnings, and the delivery of climate services during the year 2025. India
Meteorological Department (IMD)’s monsoon forecast for the 2025 southwest monsoon season was
highly accurate. The first stage long range forecast, issued in April 2025, for the Southwest Monsoon
(June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was 105% of Long Period Average (LPA) with a
model error of ± 5% of LPA and the update forecast issued in the end of May 2025 was 106% of LPA with
a model error of ± 4% of LPA. The actual seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole was 108% of LPA.
The spatial probability forecasts were also largely accurate across most regions of the country. Similarly,
the monthly rainfall forecasts closely matched the observed values and remained within the forecast
limits.
For the dissemination of early warnings and the delivery of climate services. IMD uses various digital
platforms. This includes Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), Application Programming Interface, Website,
Mobile Apps, Social media, etc. For example, during the recent Cyclone “MonTha”, a total of 77.64 Cr.
SMSs were sent to the people. All real-time data, forecasts, and warnings were also timely shared and
disseminated to State Emergency Operation Centres.
Accuracy of forecasts over Delhi for the weather parameters such as rainfall, max temperature, minimum
temperature, and occurrences of dense fog during the year 2025 is 93%, 84%, 68% and 75% respectively.
Government is continuously working to strengthen weather and climate forecasting systems in the
country. New techniques and technologies have been implemented from time to time to improve weather
and climate forecasting systems. There has been significant progress in this direction with:
Strengthening of the observing system with installation of additional AWS, ARG, and DWR, etc.
Improvement of the data integration and development of GIS-based DSS.
Improvement of NWP models and climate models, as well as a real-time seamless monitoring, forecasting,
and early warning system.
Shifting from conventional weather forecast and warning to sector-specific color-coded Impact-based
forecast (IBF) and risk-based warning (RBW) up to district/sub-city levels with dynamical impact and risk
matrix
Application of AI/ML
Customisation of bulletins and warningsSubstantial increase of computational power to integrate voluminous data and to run meso-scale, regional,
and global models at a further higher resolution scale, with improvement of process understanding and
model physics. Supercomputers (Arka and Arunika) are being used for this purpose.
Panchayat Mausam Seva.
A state-of-the-art dissemination system with the use of a mobile app, Common Alerting Protocol (CAP),
WhatsApp groups, etc.
Recently, a new Central Sector Scheme, "Mission Mausam", has been launched by MoES with the
goal of making Bharat a "Weather-ready and Climate-smart" nation, with IMD as a major player.
This information was submitted by Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth
Sciences and Science & Technology Dr. Jitendra Singh in Lok Sabha on 11th February 2026.
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