PARLIAMENT QUESTION: AI IN WEATHER FORECASTING

**Executive Summary** The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in collaboration with various centers of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), is employing Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) for advanced weather forecasting. Key initiatives include AI/ML-based techniques for cyclone intensity estimation and the development of experimental weather models. These efforts aim to enhance weather predictions and disseminate real-time information to farmers for improved crop management. **Key Points / Main Content** * **AI/ML Applications in Weather Forecasting** * Utilizes AI/ML-based Advanced Dvorak Technique (AiDT) for estimating cyclone intensity. * Employs AI/ML-based data-driven models like Pangu, GraphCast, and FourCastNet for experimental weather forecasts. * AI supports nowcasting, bias correction, and hyper-local predictions for cyclones and monsoon rainfall. * Hybrid AI-physics ensembles are used for sub-seasonal to seasonal outlooks, integrating ENSO-monsoon links and IMDAA reanalysis. * **National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Initiatives** * Integrates global AI foundation models (Pangu-Weather, GraphCast, FourCastNet, GenCast) on the Arunika supercomputer. * Utilizes outputs from NCMRWF's Mithuna-FS coupled model for rapid medium-range forecasts. * Generates probabilistic forecasts for extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall, heatwaves). * Performs downscaling to block-level resolution. * **Dissemination of Weather Information to Farmers** * The AI/ML tool "Bhashini" disseminates weather information to farmers in their regional languages. * Real-time weather updates and early warnings are provided to farmers for better crop management and increased income. * A weather-based crop advisory service offers information on weather, crop health, and appropriate measures. * Information is disseminated via mobile phones, print and electronic media, Doordarshan, internet, and SMS through Public-Private Partnership (PPP) initiatives. * **Panchayat-Level Forecasts and Digital Platforms** * Panchayat-level weather forecasts covering almost all Gram Panchayats in India have been launched in collaboration with the Ministry of Panchayati Raj (MoPR). * Forecasts are accessible through digital platforms like e-Gramswaraj, Meri Panchayat app, e-Manchitra, and Mausamgram. * IMD developed the AI/ML-based tool meteoGAN for area-specific rainfall information with 300-meter spatial resolution. * **Farmer Access to Information** * Farmers receive location-specific forecasts and agromet advisories through mobile apps like 'Meghdoot' and 'Mausam'. * Social media platforms (WhatsApp, Facebook) are also used for dissemination. * IMD has integrated services with IT platforms of 21 State Governments, enabling approximately 15.6 million farmers to access information in English and regional languages. **Impact Analysis** * **Farmers** * **Impact:** Enhanced access to real-time, location-specific weather forecasts and agromet advisories, enabling informed decisions for crop management, potentially leading to higher yields and increased income. Improved preparedness for extreme weather events. * **Action Required:** Utilize provided digital platforms, mobile apps, and dissemination channels to access weather information and advisories. * **India Meteorological Department (IMD)** * **Impact:** Advancement in weather forecasting capabilities through AI/ML integration, improved accuracy of predictions, and wider dissemination of weather-related information. * **Action Required:** Continue development and deployment of AI/ML tools and dissemination strategies. * **Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)** * **Impact:** Facilitation of advanced meteorological research and operational forecasting through AI/ML integration. * **Action Required:** Support and coordinate AI/ML initiatives within meteorological centers. * **National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)** * **Impact:** Enhanced capacity for rapid medium-range forecasts, probabilistic extreme event prediction, and high-resolution downscaling of weather information. * **Action Required:** Continue to integrate and utilize global AI foundation models and supercomputing resources. * **Ministry of Panchayati Raj (MoPR)** * **Impact:** Improved delivery of weather services at the Panchayat level, supporting local agricultural planning and disaster preparedness. * **Action Required:** Continue collaboration with IMD for Panchayat-level weather forecast dissemination through digital platforms.

Key Entities Referenced