**Executive Summary**
This document summarizes observed trends in extreme weather events in India, presenting findings from a Ministry of Earth Sciences report. Key trends include rising temperatures, accelerating sea-level rise, changes in cyclone frequency, and increased heavy rainfall and droughts. The government is enhancing early warning systems and has set up advanced forecasting and monitoring capabilities, with recent upgrades operationalized in 2025.
**Key Points / Main Content**
**Observed Trends in Extreme Weather Events**
* **Temperature Trends:**
* India's average temperature rose by approximately 0.7°C from 1901–2018, primarily due to GHG-induced warming.
* The warmest day and coldest night temperatures increased by about 0.63°C and 0.4°C respectively in the 1986–2015 period.
* **Sea Level Rise:**
* Sea levels in the North Indian Ocean rose at a rate of 1.06-1.75 mm per year between 1874–2004.
* This rate accelerated to 3.3 mm per year in the last two and a half decades (1993–2017).
* **Tropical Cyclones:**
* The annual frequency of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean basin has significantly reduced since 1951–2018.
* However, the frequency of Very Severe Cyclonic Storms during the post-monsoon season increased by approximately one event per decade between 2000–2018.
* **Changes in the Himalayas:**
* The Hindu Kush Himalayas experienced a temperature rise of about 1.3°C from 1951–2014.
* Several areas in the HKH showed a declining trend in snowfall and glacier retreat, while the Karakoram Himalayas saw increased winter snowfall.
* **Heavy Rainfall and Drought:**
* The frequency of daily precipitation extremes (over 150 mm/day) increased by about 75% from 1950–2015.
* The frequency and spatial extent of droughts over India significantly increased between 1951–2015.
**Government Initiatives for Early Warning Systems**
* **Monsoon Mission and Mission Mausam Projects:** These projects have strengthened observational and modeling systems nationwide.
* **Infrastructure Enhancements:** Upgrades include additional Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), Automatic Rain Gauges (ARG), and Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs).
* **Improved Data and Modeling:** Progress has been made in data integration, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, climate models, and GIS-based Decision Support Systems (DSS).
* **Forecasting and Monitoring:** Significant improvements have been achieved in real-time seamless monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of extreme weather events like cyclones, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall.
* **Advanced Forecasting Systems:** Global forecast models (GFS 12 km and NCUM 12 km) have been operational since 2018. The Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS) was made operational in May 2025, providing very high-resolution forecasts (6 km).
* **Enhanced Computing Power:** HPC systems "Arunika" and "Arka," implemented in 2025, increased the Ministry of Earth Sciences' computing power to 28 Peta FLOPS.
* **GIS-Based Decision Support System (DSS):** IMD developed an end-to-end GIS-based DSS for timely detection and monitoring of hazards, providing impact-based early warnings for severe weather events.
* **Dissemination of Alerts:** Improvements in last-mile dissemination include official IMD websites, Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), WhatsApp groups, mobile applications, web portals, and SMS alerts, along with coordination with disaster management authorities.
* **Stakeholder Consultation:** IMD conducts state-level workshops with various government departments to identify gaps and needs for improving weather and climate services.
**Impact Analysis**
* **General Public**
* **Impact:** Exposed to the effects of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, cyclones, heavy rainfall, and droughts, which can impact lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure.
* **Action Required:** Be aware of and respond to early warnings and advisories disseminated through various channels.
* **Disaster Management Authorities**
* **Impact:** Receive enhanced real-time monitoring, forecasting, and early warning information to aid in disaster preparedness and response.
* **Action Required:** Utilize improved data and advisories for effective disaster management planning and execution, and collaborate with IMD for better coordination.
* **Agriculture Sector**
* **Impact:** Affected by changes in rainfall patterns, temperature extremes, and drought conditions impacting crop yields and agricultural practices.
* **Action Required:** Leverage improved weather forecasts and advisories for informed decision-making regarding crop planning, irrigation, and pest management.
* **Water Resources Sector**
* **Impact:** Influenced by changes in rainfall intensity, duration, and drought conditions, affecting water availability and management.
* **Action Required:** Utilize improved forecasting to better manage water resources, anticipate floods or droughts, and plan for water infrastructure.
* **Transport and Aviation Sectors**
* **Impact:** Subject to disruptions from severe weather events like cyclones, heavy rainfall, and fog.
* **Action Required:** Utilize real-time weather information and forecasts to ensure safe operations and minimize disruptions.
* **Health Sector**
* **Impact:** Affected by extreme heat events and potential increases in vector-borne diseases associated with changing weather patterns.
* **Action Required:** Utilize health-specific advisories and forecasts to prepare for and mitigate health risks associated with extreme weather.
* **Urban Planning and Local Communities**
* **Impact:** Face risks from extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall leading to urban flooding, and heatwaves.
* **Action Required:** Incorporate weather and climate information into urban planning and community preparedness strategies.
* **Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) / India Meteorological Department (IMD)**
* **Impact:** Responsible for monitoring, forecasting, and disseminating information on extreme weather events.
* **Action Required:** Continue to enhance and operationalize forecasting systems, integrate data, improve model resolutions, and ensure effective dissemination of warnings.
Key Entities Referenced
Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region: A book containing a detailed assessment report of rainfall and temperature trends and future simulations of extreme weather events.
Monsoon Mission: A government project aimed at enhancing early warning capabilities for extreme weather events.
Mission Mausam: A government project aimed at enhancing early warning capabilities for extreme weather events.
Ministry of Earth Sciences: The government ministry responsible for monitoring and recording extreme weather events and implementing related projects.
India Meteorological Department (IMD): Responsible for operationalizing weather models, developing decision support systems, and disseminating weather alerts.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: EXTREME WEATHER
EVENTS
Posted On: 12 MAR 2026 12:42PM by PIB Delhi
Government has been monitoring and recording the occurrence of various extreme weather events such as
extreme rainfall, heat waves, cyclones, etc. across the country. There have been several studies that
examined observed changes in extreme weather and climate events. Recently, the Ministry of Earth
Sciences has also brought out a detailed assessment report covering various aspects of rainfall and
temperature using longer period observed data as well as future simulations of these events and published
in a book entitled “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region”
(https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2). A brief summary of the observed trends in
the various extreme weather events from the report are given below:
Temperature trends over India with regional changes: India’s average temperature has risen by around
0.7°C during 1901–2018. This rise in temperature is largely on account of GHG-induced warming,
partially offset by forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols and changes in LULC. In the recent 30-year
period (1986–2015), temperatures of the warmest day and the coldest night of the year have risen by about
0.63°C and 0.4°C, respectively.
Sea Level Rise: Sea levels have risen globally because of the continental ice melt and thermal expansion
of ocean water in response to global warming. Sea-level rise in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) occurred at a
rate of 1.06–1.75 mm per year during 1874–2004 and has accelerated to 3.3 mm per year in the last two
and a half decades (1993–2017).
Tropical Cyclones: There has been a significant reduction in the annual frequency of tropical cyclones
over the NIO basin since the middle of the twentieth century (1951–2018). In contrast, the frequency of
very severe cyclonic storms (VSCSs) during the post-monsoon season has increased significantly (+1
event per decade) during the last two decades (2000–2018).
Changes in the Himalayas: The Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) experienced a temperature rise of about
1.3°C during 1951–2014. Several areas of HKH have experienced a declining trend in snowfall and also
the retreat of glaciers in recent decades. In contrast, the high-elevation Karakoram Himalayas have
experienced higher winter snowfall that has shielded the region from glacier shrinkage.
Heavy rainfall and Drought: Frequency of daily precipitation extremes (rainfall intensities >150 mm per
day) increased by about 75% during 1950-2015. The frequency and spatial extent of droughts over India
has increased significantly during 1951-2015.
To enhance early warning capability, the Government has taken various steps under Monsoon Mission and
Mission Mausam projects. Under these projects, observational and modeling systems have been
strengthened across the country with additional AWS, ARG, and Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs), etc.
There is improvement in data integration, NWP models, climate models, and in the development of GIS-
based DSS. There has also been significant improvement in the real-time seamless monitoring, forecasting,
and early warning of various extreme weather events such as cyclones, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall.Under the above projects, two global forecast models, GFS 12 km and NCUM 12 km, have been
operational in real time since 2018. Recently (in May 2025), the Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS)
was made operational to generate weather forecasts at a very high resolution of 6 km to cater weather
services at block and panchayat levels. The computing facilities have also been substantially increased to
integrate voluminous data and run mesoscale, regional, and global models at higher resolution. With the
implementation of the HPC Systems "Arunika" and "Arka" in 2025, the Ministry of Earth Sciences has
enhanced its total computing power to 28 Peta FLOPS, a substantial increase from the previous capacity of
6.8 Peta FLOPS in 2014.
For effective utilization of Observational and NWP products and providing timely early warning against all
types of severe weather, IMD has developed an end-to-end GIS-based Decision Support System (DSS),
which has been working as the front end of the early warning systems for the timely detection and
monitoring of all-weather hazards. It is supported with specific severe weather modules in order to provide
timely impact-based early warnings for extreme weather events like cyclones, Heavy rainfall,
Thunderstorms, lightning, Fog, heatwaves, etc, which have devastating impacts on human lives,
livelihoods, and infrastructure. This system uses all past historical data, their extremes, as well as real-time
surface and upper air meteorological observations available to the system for the Indian region and
neighbourhood. It also includes RADAR observations available every 10 minutes and Satellite products
every 15 minutes. It also uses Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products from a suite of models run
in MoES. The models include meso-scale (including hyperlocal), regional, and global models. Various
models (hyperlocal and mesoscale) are currently operational in real time at the India Meteorological
Department (IMD) and other MoES centres. To provide impact-based forecasts and warnings, DSS
integrates exposure and hazard data.
Various steps have been taken to improve last-mile dissemination of weather alerts, including Impact-
Based Forecasting services and early warning dissemination, which have been strengthened through
official IMD websites, Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), WhatsApp groups, mobile applications, web
portals, SMS alerts, and closer coordination with disaster management authorities. To further advance
weather and climate services in India, IMD conducts multiple state-level stakeholder consultation
workshops with various state government departments. These engagements include users from agriculture,
water resources, energy, disaster management, transport, aviation, media, health, urban planning, and local
communities. The discussions help identify practical gaps, emerging needs, and opportunities to improve
the usability, accessibility, and reach of weather and climate services across the country.
This information was submitted by Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences, Dr.
Jitendra Singh in Rajya Sabha on 12 March 2026.
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NKR/JKP
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