**Executive Summary**
The Ministry of Earth Sciences reports on the forecasting of heavy rains and landslides, detailing the accuracy of current forecasting models used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Geological Survey of India (GSI). The report highlights improvements in forecast accuracy and the implementation of new initiatives, including the Mission Mausam and advanced forecasting systems. The document was issued on December 17, 2023.
**Key Points / Main Content**
* **Forecasting Accuracy:**
* The skill score for 24-hour detection of heavy rainfall over meteorological subdivisions is 85% in 2024.
* The accuracy of IMD's heavy rainfall forecasts varies from 85% to 58% for lead times of one to five days, respectively.
* Overall forecast accuracy for heavy rainfall events across the country improved by about 40% in 2023-2024 compared to 2014.
* **Landslide Forecasting:**
* GSI issues regional landslide forecasts/early warnings based on rainfall thresholds to 21 districts in 8 states during the monsoon period.
* The GSI's landslide forecast model is primarily based on rainfall thresholds derived from historical data.
* The evaluation shows a hit rate of more than 80% across the forecasting zones of operational districts.
* **Enhancements and Initiatives:**
* The Ministry aims to improve forecast accuracy through enhanced observational networks, skilled human resources, and robust infrastructure.
* The implementation of Mission Mausam is a major new initiative.
* 47 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) are in operation across India, with 87% of the country's area under radar coverage.
* The Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS) is operational at a 6-km spatial resolution and can predict rainfall events up to 10 days.
* The Mithuna Forecast System (Mithuna-FS) is a new-generation global coupled model operating at 12-km resolution.
* A 4-km high-resolution regional model is available for simulating monsoon dynamics, cyclones, and mesoscale extreme events.
* A 330-m hyper-resolution urban model is available for fog, visibility, and air-quality forecasting over Delhi.
* **Dissemination of Information:**
* IMD issues timely alerts and forecasts through various platforms, including mass media, internet, public website, IMD Apps, and social media.
* IMD has launched seven services with the 'UMANG' Mobile App.
* IMD has developed mobile Apps such as 'MAUSAM', 'Meghdoot', and 'Damini.'
* The Common Alert Protocol (CAP) is also being implemented by the IMD.
* **Early Warning System:**
* IMD is equipped with a Decision Support System (DSS) based real-time multi-hazard impact based early warning system (EWS).
* The system integrates real-time and historical data to provide timely forecasts and impact-based warnings.
* The IMD has Meteorological Centres (MCs) and special centers like Cyclone Warning Centers.
* The overall skill of forecasting these severe weather events has been improved by 30-40% over the last 10 years.
**Impact Analysis**
**The Public**
* **Impact:** The public benefits from more accurate and timely weather forecasts and warnings, helping them to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of heavy rains and landslides.
* **Action Required:** Stay informed about weather forecasts and warnings issued by the IMD through various platforms (media, apps, websites) and heed the advice provided.
**Vulnerable Populations**
* **Impact:** Better dissemination of weather warnings to vulnerable populations will assist with evacuation and safety measures.
* **Action Required:** Understand and follow the specific warnings and suggested actions provided by the IMD and other relevant authorities.
**India Meteorological Department (IMD)**
* **Impact:** The IMD is responsible for implementing and maintaining the forecasting systems, disseminating information, and improving accuracy.
* **Action Required:** Continue to enhance forecasting models, upgrade infrastructure, and effectively communicate warnings to the public.
**Geological Survey of India (GSI)**
* **Impact:** The GSI is responsible for issuing regional landslide forecasts/early warnings.
* **Action Required:** Continue to monitor rainfall thresholds and issue timely warnings to affected areas.
**Ministry of Earth Sciences and Ministry of Mines**
* **Impact:** Both ministries have a continued directive to support and enhance the infrastructure and capabilities necessary to improve forecasting of heavy rains and landslides.
* **Action Required:** Ensure adequate funding, resources, and coordination to support the initiatives and programs of the IMD and GSI.
Key Entities Referenced
India Meteorological Department (IMD): National agency responsible for weather forecasting and related services.
Ministry of Earth Sciences: The ministry under which IMD operates and which is driving improvements in weather forecasting.
Mission Mausam: A Government initiative to improve weather forecasting through infrastructure upgrades.
Geological Survey of India (GSI): Agency mandated to issue regional landslide forecasts/early warnings based on rainfall thresholds under the Ministry of Mines.
Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS): Advanced weather forecasting model developed under Mission Mausam.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: FORECASTING OF
HEAVY RAINS AND LANDSLIDES
प्रव तथ: 17 DEC 2025 5:00PM by PIB Delhi
The current forecasting models used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) are highly
accurate. In 2024, the skill score for 24-hour (one-day) advance detection of heavy rainfall over
meteorological subdivisions stands at 85%. At present, the accuracy of IMD's heavy rainfall
forecasts, measured as the percentage of correct warnings, is 85%, 73%, 67%, 63% and 58% for
lead times ranging from one to five days, respectively. Overall, forecast accuracy for heavy rainfall
events across the country improved by about 40% in 2023–2024 compared to 2014.
The Geological Survey of India (GSI), under the Ministry of Mines, has been mandated to
issue regional landslide forecasts/early warnings based on rainfall thresholds. Currently, GSI issues
operational/experimental daily regional landslide forecast bulletins to 21 districts in 08 (eight)
States during the monsoon period. GSI's landslide forecast model is primarily based on rainfall
thresholds derived from historical rainfall and landslide occurrence data, in conjunction with daily
rainfall forecast data received from institutions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Regarding the
efficiency of this current forecast model, the evaluation shows a hit rate of more than 80% across
the forecasting zones of operational districts, viz, Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Nilgiris and
Rudraprayag.
Improving the accuracy of weather forecasts requires enhanced state-of-the-art
observational networks, skilled human resources to undertake research and development for the
development of numerical weather prediction models, and robust infrastructure, such as high-
performance computing systems to run these models at the required high resolution to predict
weather patterns caused by climate change. The Ministry is in continuous endeavour of augmenting
the observational and R&D infrastructure towards achieving better accuracy in weather forecasting.
The major new initiative undertaken by the Government is the implementation of the
Mission Mausam. A couple of Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) have already been installed under
the mission. Currently, 47 radars are in operation across India, with 87% of the country's total area
under radar coverage. Under the Mission Mausam, the Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS), an
advanced weather forecasting model, has been developed and is operational at a high spatial
resolution of 6-km. It also has the capability to provide predictions of rainfall events up to 10 days,
covering the short and medium-range forecasts. Due to its higher resolution and improved
dynamics, it generates weather forecasts at the panchayat or cluster of panchayats level. Further, a
major achievement is the introduction of the Mithuna Forecast System (Mithuna-FS). This new-
generation global coupled model integrates the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice
components with state-of-the-art physics and an upgraded data assimilation framework. Currently,
this forecasting system operates at 12-km resolution, marking a significant advancement in India's
medium-range localized weather forecasting capability. The Mithuna-FS suite also includes –A 4-km high-resolution regional model for accurate simulation of monsoon dynamics, cyclones, and
mesoscale extreme events over the Indian subcontinent;
A 330-m hyper-resolution urban model for fog, visibility, and air-quality forecasting over the Delhi
region.
IMD consistently issues timely alerts and forecasts to the public and concerned stakeholders.
Various steps have been taken to ensure effective dissemination of warnings to vulnerable
populations. IMD's weather information, including alerts and warnings to the public, is provided
through various platforms:
Mass Media: Radio/TV, Newspaper network (AM, FM, Community Radio, Private TV), Prasar
Bharati, and private broadcasters.
Weekly & Daily Weather Video.
Internet (e-mail), FTP
Public Website (mausam.imd.gov.in)
IMD Apps: Mausam/Meghdoot/Damini/Rain Alarm/Umang.
Social Media: Facebook, X, Instagram, BLOG
i. X: https://twitter.com/Indiametdept
ii. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/India.Meteorological.Department/
iii. Blog: https://imdweather1875.wordpress.com/
iv. Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mausam_nwfc
v. YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_qxTReoq07UVARm87CuyQw
IMD has launched seven of its services (Current Weather, Nowcast, City Forecast, Rainfall
Information, Tourism Forecast, Warnings, and Cyclone) with the 'UMANG' Mobile App for use by
the public. Moreover, IMD developed a mobile App, 'MAUSAM' for weather forecasting,
'Meghdoot' for Agromet advisory dissemination, and 'Damini' for lightning alerts. The Common
Alert Protocol (CAP), developed by the NDMA, is also being implemented to disseminate
warnings by the IMD.
IMD currently is equipped with a Decision Support System (DSS) based real-time multi-hazard
impact based early warning system (EWS), which integrates all types of real-time and historical
data, numerical weather prediction products, etc., to effectively monitor, detect and provide timely
forecasts and impact-based warnings with suggested actions up to districts and city/station levels
against all types of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall events, droughts etc. IMD has
Meteorological Centres (MCs) in each State and also special centers like Cyclone Warning Centers
available for each impacted State, which provide services during cyclones and heavy rainfall
seasons round the clock, respectively. As a result of these new initiatives, the overall skill of
forecasting these severe weather events has been improved by 30-40% over the last 10 years.
*****
NKR/AK
(रलीज़ आईडी: 2205318) आगंतुक पटल : 332
इस वज्ञ को इन भाषाओ ंम पढ़: ही