Parliament Question: India's Rainfall Deficit

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 512 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 22ND JULY, 2026 INDIA'S RAINFALL DEFICIT 512. SHRI V K SREEKANDAN: Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state: (a) whether it is a fact that according to India Meteorological Department, India’s rainfall deficit at 35% as monsoon progress stalls and if so, the details thereof; (b) whether it is also a fact that the shortfall in rainfall is concentrated in the regions the monsoon has failed to cover and if so, the details thereof; (c) whether it is also a fact that central India faces 63% deficit as monsoon’s first round loses momentum and if so, the details thereof; and (d) whether it is a fact that forecasters globally have warned be a Super El Nino year and if so, the details thereof? ANSWER THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH) (a) No. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), has not reported a 35% rainfall deficit for the country as a whole. Rainfall across the country is monitored daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonally. Any rainfall deficit is assessed for the corresponding period and region based on the Long Period Average (LPA). The rainfall status varies spatially and temporally during the progress of the Southwest Monsoon season, and temporary deficits over certain regions or during specific periods may occur due to the intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon. Up to 30 June 2026, the cumulative All India Southwest Monsoon rainfall was 40% below the LPA. As of 14 July 2026, the cumulative All India Southwest Monsoon rainfall was 21% below the LPA. (b) No. The rainfall deficit is not confined to regions where the monsoon has not advanced; it has also been observed in areas where it has already advanced. During the period from 1 June to 14 July 2026, 19 out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions across the country received deficient rainfall. (c) No. By the end of June 2026, Central India recorded a rainfall deficiency of 50% of the LPA. Subsequently, the region received substantial rainfall from 30 June to 8 July 2026, significantly reducing the rainfall deficiency. As of 14 July 2026, the cumulative rainfall deficiency over Central India has reduced and stands at 11% below the LPA.(d) No. IMD, along with other international climate prediction centers, has predicted the development of El Nino conditions during the 2026 southwest monsoon season. During June 2026, El Nino conditions remained weak. It is likely to be weak to moderate during July and moderate during August, and become moderate to strong by the end of September. There is no officially defined category known as a "Super El Nino". Operationally, El Nino events are generally classified as weak, moderate, or strong based on the magnitude of sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean. *****