**Executive Summary**
This document details the improvements in cyclone forecasting accuracy and lead time in Odisha, attributed to initiatives like Mission Mausam. Implemented since late 2024, Mission Mausam has enhanced early warning systems and observational capabilities. Key deadlines include the proposed installation of new Doppler Weather Radars by 2026.
**Key Points / Main Content**
* **Mission Mausam and its Impact:**
* Mission Mausam, implemented since late 2024, has improved the accuracy and lead time of cyclone and extreme rainfall forecasts for coastal districts, including Odisha.
* It subsumes the ACROSS scheme and has strengthened monitoring, early warning systems, observational networks, and modelling capabilities of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), India Meteorological Department (IMD), and other organizations.
* **Improvements in Forecast Accuracy (2021โ2025 vs. 2016โ2020):**
* **Landfall Point Forecast Error:** Reduced by 35โ45% for 24โ48 hours lead and approximately 20% for 36โ72 hours lead.
* **Track Forecast Error:** Showed a 5โ10% improvement up to 48 hours lead.
* **Intensity Forecast Error:** Reduced by 35โ45% up to 72 hours lead.
* **Improvements in Lead Time:**
* Comparable landfall point forecast accuracy (34 km) is now achieved at a 48-hour lead (2021โ25) compared to a 24-hour lead (2016โ20), indicating an improvement of about 24 hours.
* Comparable intensity forecast accuracy (7.9 knots) is achieved at approximately 60 hours lead (2021โ25) compared to a 24-hour lead (2016โ20), indicating an improvement of about 36 hours.
* **Heavy Rainfall Forecast Accuracy:**
* Probability of Detection (PoD) for heavy rainfall (up to five days) has improved.
* PoD for Day-1 improved from 0.74 (2016โ20) to 0.79 (2021โ25).
* PoD for Days 2โ5 also showed significant improvements.
* **Reduction in Fatalities:**
* Improved early warning preparedness has led to a significant reduction in loss of life during recent cyclonic events since 2010.
* Examples include zero deaths for Cyclone Biparjoy and Cyclone Dana, and significantly fewer deaths compared to the 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone.
* **IMD Infrastructure in Odisha:**
* Continuous strengthening of forecasting and observational infrastructure, including AWS, ARGs, HWSRs, and DWRs.
* Current infrastructure includes manned observatories, AWS, ARGs, HWSRs, weather observation systems at airports, Doppler Weather Radars at Paradip and Gopalpur, a Flood Meteorological Office, and a Cyclone Warning Centre in Bhubaneswar.
* **Proposed Infrastructure under Mission Mausam:**
* Installation of two C-Band Doppler Weather Radars at Sambalpur and Balasore by 2026.
* Installation of one X-Band Doppler Weather Radar at Bhubaneswar.
* A proposed S-Band Doppler Weather Radar at Puri.
* These additions aim to further strengthen cyclone monitoring, rainfall forecasting, and early warning capabilities for Odisha and adjoining coastal regions.
**Impact Analysis**
* **Coastal Districts (including Odisha)**
* **Impact:** Enhanced accuracy and lead time of cyclone and extreme rainfall forecasts, leading to improved early warning preparedness and a reduction in loss of life. Strengthening of monitoring and early warning systems.
* **Action Required:** Utilize improved forecast information for timely preparedness and evacuation measures.
* **Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), India Meteorological Department (IMD), and Sister Organizations**
* **Impact:** Strengthened observational networks, modelling capabilities, and early warning systems. Improved capacity to monitor and forecast cyclones and extreme rainfall.
* **Action Required:** Continue to implement and leverage modernization projects and new initiatives like Mission Mausam.
* **State Governments**
* **Impact:** Provided with more accurate and timely early warnings, enabling more effective evacuation measures.
* **Action Required:** Continue to undertake effective evacuation measures based on timely forecasts to reduce casualties.
* **Public in Coastal Regions**
* **Impact:** Increased safety due to improved early warnings and preparedness measures against cyclonic events and extreme rainfall.
* **Action Required:** Be aware of and respond to early warnings issued by meteorological agencies.
* **Local Communities and Fisherfolk**
* **Impact:** Better ability to prepare for and mitigate risks associated with cyclonic storms and heavy rainfall.
* **Action Required:** Adhere to advisories and warnings related to weather conditions.
Key Entities Referenced
Mission Mausam: A modernization project and initiative focused on improving cyclone and extreme rainfall forecasts, subsuming the ACROSS scheme.
ACROSS scheme: The erstwhile scheme subsumed by Mission Mausam, contributing to monitoring and early warning systems.
India Meteorological Department (IMD): The primary government department responsible for forecasting and strengthening observational infrastructure, including in Odisha.
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES): The overarching ministry under which Mission Mausam and IMD operate, enhancing observational network and modeling capabilities.
Odisha: The specific geographical location central to the scope and impact of the Mission Mausam initiative discussed in the policy.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: Mission Mausam in
Odisha
Posted On: 11 MAR 2026 12:14PM by PIB Delhi
Various modernization projects and implementation of new initiatives such as Mission Mausam have
significantly contributed to improving the accuracy and lead time of cyclone and extreme rainfall
forecasts for coastal districts, including those in Odisha. Mission Mausam, implemented since late 2024
by subsuming the erstwhile ACROSS scheme, has strengthened monitoring and early warning systems
and enhanced the observational network and modelling capabilities of the Ministry of Earth Sciences
(MoES), the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and other sister organizations.
A comparative analysis of operational forecast accuracy of cyclone track, landfall point and intensity
during 2021โ2025 vis-ร -vis 2016โ2020 indicates notable improvements:
Landfall point forecast error for 24, 48 and 72 hours lead periods during 2021โ25 were 19.0 km, 34.4 km
and 77.3 km respectively, compared to 31.9 km, 61.5 km and 91.9 km during 2016โ20, indicating an
improvement of 35โ45% for 24โ48 hours lead period and about 20% improvement for 36โ72 hours lead
period.
Average track forecast errors were 73 km, 116 km and 168 km during 2021โ25 compared to 77 km, 117
km and 159 km during 2016โ20 for 24, 48 and 72 hours lead periods respectively, showing 5โ10%
improvement up to 48 hours.
Average absolute error in intensity forecast was 5.3 knots, 7.5 knots and 9.1 knots for 24, 48 and 72 hours
during 2021โ25 compared to 7.9 knots, 11.4 knots and 14.1 knots during 2016โ20, reflecting 35โ45%
improvement up to 72 hours lead period.
Further, the improvement in lead time is also evident. The landfall point forecast error of 32 km at 24
hours lead period during 2016โ20 is comparable to 34 km at 48 hours lead period during 2021โ25,
indicating an improvement of about 24 hours in lead time for similar accuracy. Similarly, the intensity
forecast error of 7.9 knots at 24 hours lead period during 2016โ20 is comparable to 7.9 knots at about 60
hours lead period during 2021โ25, indicating an improvement of about 36 hours in lead time.
Similarly, the accuracy of heavy rainfall forecasts (up to five days) has improved. The average Probability
of Detection (PoD) for the recent five years (2021โ2025) is 0.79 for Day-1, compared to 0.74 during
2016โ2020. For Day-2 to Day-5, PoD improved from 0.61 to 0.71 (for Day 2), 0.60 to 0.68 (for Day 3),
0.56 to 0.69 (for Day 4), and 0.57 to 0.63 (for Day 5) respectively.Data indicates a significant reduction in loss of life during recent cyclonic events due to improved early
warning lead preparedness by State Governments. Since 2010, there has been a substantial decline in
cyclone-related fatalities.
For instance, in recent years:
Cyclone Biparjoy (2023, Gujarat) โ Zero deaths
Cyclone Michaung (2023, Tamil Nadu & Andhra Pradesh) โ 19 deaths
Cyclone Dana (Odisha) โ Zero deaths
Cyclone Fengal (2024, Tamil Nadu) โ 10 deaths
Cyclone Montha (2025, Andhra Pradesh) โ 8 deaths
These figures are significantly lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone, which resulted in
thousands of fatalities. The reduction in casualties is primarily attributed to timely early warnings issued
by IMD and effective evacuation measures undertaken by State Governments based on these forecasts.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been continuously strengthening forecasting and
observational infrastructure across the country, including Odisha, through installation and upgradation of
meteorological observation systems such as Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), Automated Rain Gauges
(ARG), High Wind Speed Recorders (HWSR), and Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs).
At present, Odisha has:
39 manned surface meteorological observatories
29 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS)
136 Automated Rain Gauge (ARG) stations
6 High Wind Speed Recorders (HWSR)
Current Weather Observation Systems at four airports
Two Doppler Weather Radars at Paradip and Gopalpur, operating round the clock
A Flood Meteorological Office (FMO) at IMD Bhubaneswar functioning round the clock
A Cyclone Warning Centre at IMD Bhubaneswar
In addition to the existing network, the following infrastructure is proposed to be installed under Mission
Mausam:
Two C-Band Doppler Weather Radars at Sambalpur and Balasore by 2026
One X-Band Doppler Weather Radar at BhubaneswarOne S-Band Doppler Weather Radar proposed at Puri
These additions will further strengthen cyclone monitoring, rainfall forecasting, and early warning
capabilities for Odisha and the adjoining coastal regions.
This information was submitted by Minister of State (Independent Charge) For Earth Sciences Dr.
Jitendra Singh in Lok Sabha today.
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