**Executive Summary**
This report, issued by the Ministry of Earth Sciences on February 12, 2026, addresses a parliamentary question regarding the accuracy and improvements of the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) seasonal monsoon forecasts. The document assesses forecast performance over the past three years (2023-2025) and outlines ongoing efforts to enhance forecast precision through technological advancements and data integration. The information was submitted by Union Minister of State Dr. Jitendra Singh in Rajya Sabha.
**Key Points / Main Content**
* **Monsoon Forecast Performance (2023-2025):**
* The IMD's seasonal monsoon forecasts for 2023, 2024, and 2025 were within forecast limits and accurate.
* The average absolute error of the forecast during the 3-year period was 1.9% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
* **Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy:**
* Deviations between forecasted and actual rainfall are mainly due to uncertainties associated with large-scale climate drivers (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole).
* Intra-seasonal variability and shortcomings in simulating synoptic-scale systems also reduce accuracy.
* **Improvements in Forecasting Techniques:**
* The IMD is integrating advanced climate-modeling tools, high-resolution satellite data, Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) systems, and advanced data assimilation techniques.
* High-resolution satellite data from Indian and international satellites are routinely used.
* Enhanced high-performance computing facilities, advanced Numerical Prediction Models, and emerging techniques like AI and ML are being adopted.
* Initiatives such as Mission Mausam aim to further improve forecast accuracy, spatial resolution, and lead time.
* **Ongoing Efforts:**
* IMD is already using the latest technologies and forecasting techniques and remains open to adopting new technologies.
* The improvement of forecasting accuracy is a continuous process.
**Impact Analysis**
**Stakeholder: India Meteorological Department (IMD)**
* **Impact:** Requires continuous efforts to improve forecast accuracy, spatial resolution, and lead time.
* **Action Required:** Continue integrating advanced technologies, enhancing data assimilation techniques, and leveraging initiatives like Mission Mausam.
**Stakeholder: Ministry of Earth Sciences**
* **Impact:** Responsible for overseeing and supporting the IMD's efforts to improve monsoon forecasting.
* **Action Required:** Continue to provide resources and support for the integration of advanced technologies and research initiatives.
**Stakeholder: General Public/Farmers**
* **Impact:** Access to more accurate and reliable monsoon forecasts for planning and decision-making.
* **Action Required:** Utilize available forecast information for agricultural planning and risk management.
Key Entities Referenced
India Meteorological Department (IMD): The primary agency responsible for seasonal monsoon forecast mentioned in the document.
Ministry of Earth Sciences: The ministry under which the India Meteorological Department functions.
Mission Mausam: Initiative to improve forecast accuracy, spatial resolution, and lead time.
ALL India Monsoon Rainfall (% of Long Period Average (LPA)): Metric used for evaluating monsoon rainfall.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: MONSOON
FORECAST ACCURACY AND IMPROVEMENTS
Posted On: 12 FEB 2026 12:55PM by PIB Delhi
The performance of the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) seasonal monsoon forecast during the
past three years (2023-25) is given below:
Year ALL India Monsoon Rainfall (% of Long Period
Average (LPA))
Remark
Actual Forecast ± Model error
2023 95 96 ± 4 Actual Rainfall was Within the
forecast limits and Accurate
2024 108 106± 4 Actual Rainfall was Within the
forecast limits and Accurate
2025 108 106 ± 4 Actual Rainfall was Within the
forecast limits and Accurate
The performance of operational forecast during 2023–2025 shows that the actual rainfall during each of
these 3 years were within the forecast limits and were accurate The average absolute error of the forecast
during the 3 years period was 1.9% of the LPA.
The deviations between forecasted and actual seasonal rainfall mainly arise due to uncertainties associated
with large-scale climate drivers and their representation in forecast models. Seasonal rainfall forecasts are
sensitive to the evolution of ENSO and its influence on the Indian summer monsoon. In addition, the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and its interaction with the monsoon circulation introduces further uncertainty.
The substantial intra-seasonal variability during the monsoon season also restricts forecast reliability,
particularly under climate-change conditions. Furthermore, shortcomings in simulating synoptic-scale
systems, such as Monsoon Low Pressure Systems and their associated rainfall, reduce the accuracy of
early predictions over central India and neighbouring regions.The India Meteorological Department under the Ministry has taken several steps to integrate advanced
climate-modelling tools and high-resolution satellite data to improve forecast precision. These include the
operational use of outputs from coupled global and regional climate models through Multi-Model
Ensemble (MME) systems, and advanced data assimilation techniques to effectively utilize different types
of observations. High-resolution satellite data/imageries from Indian and international satellites are
routinely used for monitoring of clouds, rainfall, sea surface temperatures, winds, and other atmospheric
parameters. In addition, enhanced high-performance computing facilities, advanced Numerical Prediction
Models, and emerging techniques such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are being
adopted under initiatives like Mission Mausam to further improve forecast accuracy, spatial resolution,
and lead time across different time scales.
IMD is already using the latest available technologies and forecasting techniques for the forecasting of
monsoon rainfall. However, improvement of accuracy of the forecasting is a continuous process, and IMD
will always remain open to adopt new technologies and forecasting techniques as and when it is realized.
This information was submitted by Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr.
Jitendra Singh in Rajya Sabha on 12th February 2026.
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