**Executive Summary**
This document reports on the India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s monsoon forecasting and climate resilience efforts in Assam, as presented to Lok Sabha on February 11, 2026. It details the performance of the IMD's Southwest Monsoon 2025 forecast, the initiatives undertaken to improve forecasting capabilities, and the support provided to stakeholders for climate resilience. The report highlights the IMD's use of Multi-Model Ensemble forecasting system and various digital platforms for dissemination of weather and climate services.
**Key Points / Main Content**
* **Monsoon Forecasting:**
* The IMD predicted below-normal rainfall for Northeast India, including Assam and Meghalaya, for the Southwest Monsoon 2025, using the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting System.
* The realized seasonal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon was also below normal, in line with the IMD's forecast.
* Heavy rainfall forecast skill for Assam was 89-94% overall and 75-80% at the district scale at lead time of Day 1 to Day 5.
* **Improving Forecast Capabilities:**
* Initiatives under Mission Mausam include upgrading atmosphere-ocean models, improving observational datasets, and using high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.
* Exploration of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) techniques for weather forecasting.
* **Climate Resilience and Support:**
* Increased investment through Mission Mausam to improve the early warning system.
* Issuance of Impact-based forecasts and agrometeorological advisories to support preparedness and risk mitigation.
* Support extended to State agencies and the Central Water Commission (CWC) by sharing observed and forecast rainfall for improved flood forecasts.
* Use of digital platforms like MAUSAM, Meghdoot, and Damini for timely dissemination of information to farmers, policymakers, and the general public.
* Conducting Climate Service User Forum meetings jointly with the State Government.
* **Satellite Monitoring:**
* Enhanced weather prediction and flood forecasting through satellite-based monitoring, integrating satellite data with surface-based observations.
* Issuance of heavy rainfall warnings, flood-related advisories, and impact-based forecasts.
* Provision of Extended Range Forecasts (ERF) and high-resolution gridded rainfall data.
* District-level agrometeorological advisories through Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) for farmers.
* **Southwest Monsoon 2025 Rainfall (Annexure-1):**
* Assam and Meghalaya subdivision: Below Normal rainfall with -49% departure from LPA, forecast accurate.
* East & NE India (Homogenous rainfall Region): Below Normal rainfall with -33% departure from LPA, forecast accurate.
**Impact Analysis**
**Farmers, Policymakers, and General Public**
* **Impact:** Access to improved weather forecasts, agromet advisories, and early warnings via digital platforms to make informed decisions.
* **Action Required:** Utilize available information from MAUSAM, Meghdoot, and Damini apps for planning and preparedness.
**State Agencies and Central Water Commission (CWC)**
* **Impact:** Enhanced ability to plan for and manage floods and other weather-related risks due to improved data sharing.
* **Action Required:** Leverage shared rainfall data and forecasts to improve flood forecasting and mitigation strategies.
**Government of Assam**
* **Impact:** Improved capacity to support climate resilience in agricultural regions.
* **Action Required:** Participate in Climate Service User Forum meetings to ensure effective utilisation of weather and climate services.
Key Entities Referenced
India Meteorological Department (IMD): The primary agency providing weather forecasting and climate services, crucial for the described initiatives.
Mission Mausam: Project aiming to improve weather forecast capabilities through model upgrades, data assimilation, and AI/ML techniques.
Assam: The specific geographic region where the monsoon forecasting and climate resilience efforts are focused.
Central Water Commission (CWC): Agency supported by IMD with rainfall data for improved flood forecasting.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: MONSOON
FORECASTING AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN
ASSAM
Posted On: 11 FEB 2026 11:41AM by PIB Delhi
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides seamless forecasts across time scales, ranging from
seasonal forecasts to short-range and nowcasts. For the Southwest Monsoon 2025, IMD had predicted
below-normal seasonal rainfall over Northeast India region (which includes Assam) as well as for the
subdivision of Assam and Meghalaya. For this newly implemented Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)
forecasting System was used. The realized seasonal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon over both
the Northeast India region and Assam and Meghalaya subdivision was also below normal, in line with the
IMD’s seasonal forecast. The details are provided in Annexure-1. For issuing short-range rainfall forecasts
and heavy rainfall warnings, IMD primarily uses outputs from various global models. For heavy rainfall
prediction during the Southwest Monsoon 2025, the skill of heavy rainfall forecasts for the Assam State as
a whole is 89-94%, while at the district scale in Assam, it is 75-80% at lead time of Day 1 to Day 5.
Under the Mission Mausam, several initiatives have been taken to further improve forecast capabilities of
the Multi-Model Ensemble framework like upgradation of coupled atmosphere–ocean models,
assimilation of improved observational datasets, and greater use of high-resolution numerical weather
prediction (NWP) models. In addition, initiatives are taken to explore the use of Artificial Intelligence and
Machine Learning (AI/ML) techniques for weather forecasting, including for understanding uncertainties
at sub-seasonal and regional scales.
To enhance climate resilience in monsoon-dependent and flood-prone agricultural regions of Assam, the
Government, through the IMD, has been increasing investment with the new Mission Mausam project to
further improve its early warning system. IMD is also issuing Impact-based forecasts and
agrometeorological advisories to support preparedness and risk mitigation. IMD also extends support to
State agencies and the Central Water Commission (CWC) by timely sharing both observed and forecast
rainfall to improve flood forecasts up to a 7-day lead time, which aids planning in districts affected by
recurrent flooding, riverbank erosion, and rainfall variability. For timely dissemination to the last mile,
various new digital platforms are currently in use in real time, including Common Alerting Protocol
(CAP)-based alerts, and apps like MAUSAM, Meghdoot, and Damini, for the benefit of farmers,
policymakers, and the general public. In addition, IMD conducts Climate Service User Forum meetings
jointly with the State Government to facilitate stakeholder interaction and promote effective utilisation of
weather and climate services.The role of satellite-based monitoring immensely helps in enhancing weather prediction, flood
forecasting, and disaster preparedness, especially for the State of Assam, by integrating various satellite
data, e.g., cloud cover, winds, etc, with surface-based observations from rain gauges, Automatic Weather
Stations (AWS), and Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs). Based on these inputs, IMD issued heavy rainfall
warnings, flood-related advisories, and impact-based forecasts to support timely preparedness and
response by State authorities. For climate resilience, IMD provides Extended Range Forecasts (ERF) with
lead times of up to two weeks to support agricultural planning and reduce exposure to extreme rainfall,
which complements seasonal climate outlooks. IMD also supplies high-resolution gridded rainfall data
and historical climate data to assist hydrological studies and the planning of climate-resilient
infrastructure. In addition, district-level agrometeorological advisories issued under the Gramin Krishi
Mausam Sewa (GKMS) support farmers in crop planning, irrigation, and other field operations under
variable weather conditions.
This information was submitted by Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences and
Science & Technology Dr. Jitendra Singh in Lok Sabha on 11th February 2026.
Annexure-1
Rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon 2025 over Assam and the Northeast Region:
Region 2025 Forecast Climatological Observed Rainfall Remarks
Category of the Normal in mm Percentage Departure from
LPA (1971-2020) LPA (Actual Rainfall in
mm)
Assam and Below Normal -49% of LPA The forecast
Meghalaya (<93% of the was accurate
1762.2 mm
(906.4 mm)
(sub-division) LPA)
East & NE Below Normal 1367.3 mm -33% of LPA The forecast
India (<94% of the was accurate
(920 mm)
(Homogenous LPA)
rainfall Region)
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