Read or download the official PDF of this gazette notification issued by the Ministry of Earth Sciences on 5th August 2026. Classified under Press Release.
Executive Summary
This report details the Ministry of Earth Sciences' response regarding preparedness for El Niño conditions during the 2026 Southwest Monsoon. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted below-normal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to the likely development of El Niño. While regular monitoring and inter-departmental coordination are ongoing, no specific district-wise risk assessments or guidelines have been issued to States for the 2026 season.
Key Points / Main Content
Monsoon Forecasts and El Niño Impact
The IMD revised its 2026 Southwest Monsoon forecast from 92% of the LPA (issued April 13, 2026) to 90% of the LPA, with a model error of ±4%.
El Niño conditions are expected to develop during the 2026 monsoon season, which historically correlates with weaker monsoons.
Since 1950, 7 out of 16 El Niño years resulted in below-normal rainfall, with a strong inverse relationship noted during the latter half of the season (September).
Monitoring and Data Dissemination
The IMD provides daily monsoon updates, monthly El Niño status reports, and rainfall data at district and block levels.
A "crop weather watch" is maintained for the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW), providing weekly reports on past rainfall and two-week forecasts.
Regular climate outlooks and early warnings for heatwaves and extreme weather are disseminated to Central Ministries and State Governments.
Institutional Collaboration
The IMD participates in regular coordination meetings with the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), and MoAFW.
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) is working with agriculture and dam management departments to utilize experimental forecasts for water and crop management.
The Ministry confirmed that no specific district-wise risk assessment studies or guidelines for tackling El Niño impacts were issued to States for 2026.
Impact Analysis
Central Ministries (PMO, MHA, MoAFW)Impact
These bodies receive critical technical inputs and participate in regular meetings to oversee national-level preparedness and crop monitoring.
Action Required
Continue utilizing weekly and monthly IMD updates to coordinate inter-ministerial response measures and agricultural planning.
State GovernmentsImpact
States are provided with seasonal outlooks and early warnings for extreme events but currently lack specific federal district-level El Niño risk assessments for 2026.
Action Required
Apply disseminated weather and climate forecasts to implement local-level preparedness and response strategies for below-normal rainfall.
Agriculture and Dam Management DepartmentsImpact
These departments receive experimental seasonal-to-medium range forecasts from the IITM regarding ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) impacts.
Action Required
Incorporate rainfall and ENSO impact data into irrigation scheduling, water storage planning, and agricultural advisory services.
Key Entities Referenced
India Meteorological Department (IMD): The nodal agency responsible for assessing El Niño's impact on monsoons and issuing seasonal Long Range Forecasts to guide national preparedness and planning.
Ministry of Earth Sciences: The primary ministry overseeing weather assessment, climate research, and the dissemination of extreme weather warnings to central and state stakeholders.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM): A research institution under MoES that provides experimental forecasts for agriculture and dam management to mitigate ENSO-related impacts.
Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW): A key stakeholder ministry that utilizes IMD data for its 'crop weather watch' to monitor rainfall impacts on national agriculture.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: Preparedness for EI
Nino Conditions
प्रव तथ: 05 AUG 2026 1:57PM by PIB Delhi
India Meteorological Department (IMD) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences assesses the likely impact
of El Niño on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. In general, during the El Nino event, the Indian
summer monsoon is weaker than normal, and the intensity of the El Nino also decides the amount of
impact on the monsoon. Since 1950, there have been 16 El Niño years, out of which 7 years had impacted
Indian monsoon rainfall when rainfall was below normal. However, there is a stronger inverse relationship
between El Niño and rainfall during the later half of the monsoon season (particularly with September
rainfall).
The IMD regularly issues seasonal and monthly forecasts for rainfall and temperature. IMD issued a
below-normal rainfall forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season. In its First Stage Long Range
Forecast, issued on 13 April 2026, IMD predicted the seasonal rainfall to be 92% of the Long Period
Average (LPA) with a model error of ±5%. Subsequently, in the Second Stage Long Range Forecast, IMD
revised the seasonal rainfall forecast to 90% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%. IMD also indicated
the likely development of El Niño conditions during the Southwest Monsoon season in its seasonal
forecasts, thereby providing advance guidance for preparedness and planning by the concerned
stakeholders.
In addition, IMD provides regular updates on monsoon rainfall at daily intervals and El Nino conditions at
monthly intervals. IMD also provides rainfall at district and block levels to all stakeholders and
participates in meetings conducted by PMO, MHA, MoAFW regularly and provides relevant inputs.
Under crop weather watch of MoAFW every week, IMD provides past rainfall and forecast of rainfall for
the next two weeks.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), MoES, based on the experimental forecast of 2026 in the
seasonal to short and medium range, is working with Agriculture and dam management departments to
provide the impact of rainfall and developing ENSO in agriculture and water management
Ministry of Earth Sciences has not issued any district-wise risk and impact assessment study or guidelines
to the States regarding tackling the impacts of El Niño during 2026.
However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, regularly
issues weather and climate forecasts, seasonal outlooks, and early warnings related to rainfall, heatwaves,
and other extreme weather events, which are disseminated to all concerned Central Ministries, State
Governments, and other stakeholders to support preparedness and appropriate response measures.
This information was given by the Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra
Singh in a written reply in Lok Sabha today.
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