Executive Summary:
This document presents the progress of Mission Mausam, addressing advancements in weather forecasting accuracy, the role of Doppler Weather Radars and Automatic Weather Stations, the use of advanced technologies like AI, and national/international collaborations. The mission is currently in its initial implementation phase. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is actively involved in AI/ML research for weather forecasting.
Key Points / Main Content:
* **Weather Forecasting Accuracy:**
* Mission Mausam aims to improve short and medium-range weather forecast accuracy by approximately 5-10%.
* Radars, satellite products, and AWSARG are used for very short-duration, location-specific forecasts (up to 6 hours), particularly for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
* IMD uses observational networks and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to generate forecasts at different time scales, with radar observations refining local-scale nowcasts.
* **Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs):**
* DWRs are essential for detecting, monitoring, and predicting extreme monsoon events.
* DWR observations are available every ten minutes, providing images of cloud types and vertical developments.
* DWRs aid in issuing nowcast warnings for thunderstorms and associated heavy rainfall activities for up to 3 hours.
* **Advanced Technologies (AI/ML):**
* IMD is collaborating with MoES institutions and undertaking AI/ML research activities for weather forecasting applications.
* A Virtual Centre at IITM, Pune, has been established to develop AI/ML-based application tools.
* A dedicated functional group has been established in IMD to strengthen R&D activities in AI/ML.
* IMD has established specialized GPU and CPU-based infrastructure for AI computing.
* IMD has signed MOUs with academic institutions for collaborations and R&D activities, utilizing AI/ML for weather and climate.
* IMD utilizes satellite-based AI-enhanced Advanced Dvorak Technique (AiDT) to estimate Tropical Cyclone intensity and uses AI-based model guidance from ECMWF for tropical cyclone genesis, track, and intensity prediction.
* **National and International Collaborations:**
* MoES institutions (IMD, IITM, NCMRWF) coordinate with developed countries (Korea, Japan, USA, UK, Europe) on meteorological services and early warning systems.
* Knowledge is shared through exchange programs involving forecasters and scientists.
* India operates under the umbrella of Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres for Tropical Cyclone, Severe Weather, and climate services.
Impact Analysis:
* **India Meteorological Department (IMD):**
* *Impact:* IMD is central to the mission, responsible for implementing advanced technologies, collaborating with national and international partners, and improving forecasting accuracy.
* *Action Required:* Continue to develop and implement AI/ML technologies, maintain and expand observational networks, and foster collaborations to adopt global best practices.
* **Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES):**
* *Impact:* MoES oversees Mission Mausam, provides resources, and facilitates collaborations between its institutions.
* *Action Required:* Continue to support IMD and other institutions, promote AI/ML research, and ensure effective coordination.
* **Researchers and Scientists:**
* *Impact:* They are involved in developing and implementing AI/ML models, analyzing weather data, and collaborating with international partners.
* *Action Required:* Participate in training sessions, contribute to AI/ML R&D, and collaborate on knowledge sharing initiatives.
* **General Public:**
* *Impact:* Expected to benefit from more accurate and timely weather forecasts, including early warnings for extreme weather events.
* *Action Required:* Stay informed about weather forecasts and heed warnings issued by authorities.
Key Entities Referenced
Mission Mausam: A project aimed at enhancing the accuracy and outreach of weather forecasting services across India.
Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs): Vital tools used to detect, monitor, and support the prediction of extreme monsoon events, providing short-duration warnings of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
India Meteorological Department (IMD): The primary agency responsible for meteorological observations and weather forecasting in India, part of MoES.
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES): The Indian government ministry responsible for science and technology related to earth sciences, including meteorology.
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AIML): Advanced technologies being adopted to strengthen climate prediction capabilities and improve weather forecasting services.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, Maharashtra: An MoES institution, has established virtual centre to develop AIML based application tools for weather forecasting.
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF): An MoES institution that regularly coordinates with other developed countries regarding their technical advancement with respect to meteorological services and early warning systems.
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF): An international organization whose AI-based model guidance is used by IMD for tropical cyclone genesis, track, and intensity prediction.
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
LOK SABHA
UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 4433
TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 20THAUGUST, 2025
PROGRESS REPORT OF MISSION MAUSAM
4433. SMT. MALA RAJYA LAXMI SHAH:
SHRI P P CHAUDHARY:
SHRI VISHWESHWAR HEGDE KAGERI:
SHRI VIJAY BAGHEL:
MS KANGNA RANAUT:
SHRI PRAVEEN PATEL:
DR. NISHIKANT DUBEY:
Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:
(a) the details of progress achieved under Mission Mausam in enhancing the accuracy and
outreach of weather forecasting services across the country;
(b) the manner in which the installation of Doppler Weather Radars and Automatic
Weather Stations has contributed to improved real-time weather data collection and
early warning systems;
(c) whether the Doppler Weather Radars are equipped to predict extreme monsoon events
and if so, the details thereof;
(d) the details of impact of adopting advanced technologies such as high-resolution
forecasting models and AI-based systems in strengthening climate prediction
capabilities; and
(e) the details of key national and international collaborations established under Mission
Mausam to adopt global best practices in meteorological services and disaster risk
reduction?
ANSWER
THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR
MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
AND EARTH SCIENCES
(DR. JITENDRA SINGH)
(a) Mission Mausam is currently in the beginning phase of its implementation. However,
once implemented, this project will help in the overall improvement of the short and
medium-range weather forecast accuracy by about 5-10 %.
(b) Radars, satellite products, and AWS/ARG are needed mainly for nowcast or for very
short duration forecasts for improving location-based forecasts of likely occurrences of
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall upto 6 hours. Worldwide, for issuing heavy rainfall
forecasts and associated flash floods and other types of floods, weather predictions are
made using various observational systems and then by running various NWP models.
Presently, IMD has a very good observational network consisting of surface, upper air,
and remote sensing (radar and satellite) observations. These observations are
assimilated in various state-of-the-art regional and global numerical models to generate
weather forecasts at different time scales. Radar observations help only in further tuning
at the local scale in terms of nowcast of small-scale severe weather events, mainly used
for nowcast purposes.(c) Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) are vital tools equipped to detect, monitor, and
support the prediction of extreme monsoon events. The DWR observations are available
every ten minutes in the form of images with cloud types and their vertical
developments over areas within the radar. So, it helps in monitoring and issuing
nowcast warnings of thunderstorms, associated with heavy rainfall activities, at a very
short duration of upto 3 hours.
(d) The India Meteorological Department has been interacting and collaborating with other
MoES institutions, and has undertaken several programmes towards Artificial
Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) related research activities for application in
the field of weather forecasting services. Some of them are given Annexure-1.
(e) MoES institutions such as IMD, IITM, NCMRWF, etc., regularly coordinate with other
developed countries regarding their technical advancement with respect to
meteorological services and early warning systems, like Korea, Japan, the USA, UK,
and other European countries. Knowledge-based practices are shared in this field
through the exchange of visits of forecasters and scientists from various countries to
India. Due to such regular interaction, India is moreover under the umbrella of Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centres, Tropical Cyclone, Severe Weather, and climate
services.Annexure-1
Virtual Centre at IITM, Pune, has been established by MoES to develop
AI/ML/DL based application tools.
A dedicated functional group has been established in IMD under MoES to
strengthen the R&D activities in AI/ML.
IMD has established a specialized GPU and CPU-based infrastructure for AI
computing.
IMD has signed MoUs with various Academic Institutions like IITs, IIITs, NITs,
ISRO, DRDO, Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY),
etc, for collaborations and R&D activities, utilizing facets of various AI/ML
applications to weather and climate.
The capacity-building in AI/ML domain with respect to weather and climate are
being done by nominating scientists in training sessions and workshops.
A short-term refresher course on Fundamentals of Artificial Intelligence and
Machine Learning organized by IMD from 27th May 2024 to 31st May 2024.
The usage of AI-based monitoring tools and forecasting models is as follows:
To Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity, satellite-based AI-enhanced Advanced
Dvorak Technique (AiDT), as given by Cooperative Institute for Meteorological
Satellite Studies, is utilised by IMD apart from other products.
IMD also uses AI-based model guidance from the European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) for tropical cyclone genesis, track, and
intensity prediction.
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