**Executive Summary**
This document outlines the improvements achieved in weather forecasting, particularly in the state of Karnataka, India. It highlights the increased accuracy in predicting severe weather events, including heavy rainfall, due to advancements in forecasting strategies and technology. The information was presented in Loksabha on February 4, 2026.
**Key Points / Main Content**
* **Improved Weather Forecasting Accuracy:**
* Overall prediction skill increased by 30-40% in the last 10 years for all types of severe weather events across India.
* For Karnataka, the 5-year warning of heavy rainfall, including 2025, shows improvements in probability of detection (POD) across different subdivisions:
* North Interior Karnataka: Increased from 52% in 2021 to 88% in 2025 (1-day lead period)
* South Interior Karnataka: Improved from 58% to 70% (Day 1 lead period)
* Coastal Karnataka: Improved from 80% to 92% (Day 1 lead period)
* 15-25% overall improvement observed during 2020-2025 for day-1 to day-5 forecasts of heavy rainfall for the state of Karnataka.
* **Advanced Forecasting Strategies and Technologies:**
* India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)-based forecasting strategy for monthly and seasonal forecasting.
* Accuracy of monsoon prediction improved, with the average absolute error of all India forecast of 2.28% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during 2021-2024, compared to 7.5% in 2017-2020.
* IMD uses the latest techniques and technology for early warning dissemination via mobile-based alert system (SACHET) and shares forecasts with State Emergency Operation Centres/SDMA.
* **Gram Panchayat Level Weather Forecasting (GPLWF) Initiative:**
* Launched by Bharat Sarkar in collaboration with IMD and the Ministry of Panchayati Raj (MoPR) on 24th October 2024.
* Forecasts accessible on platforms like e-Gramswaraj, Meri panchayat app, e-Manchitra of MoPR, and Mausamgram of IMD.
* **Enhanced Dissemination and Outreach:**
* 3,63,806 farmers in Karnataka are directly connected in WhatsApp groups for forecasts & warnings.
* Warnings are also disseminated to fisherfolk and vulnerable communities via WhatsApp through district collector and SDM groups.
* **Expanded Infrastructure:**
* 47 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) are operational across the country, including one in Shaktinagar, Mangalore.
* **Additional Initiatives:**
* Heat Action Plans taken up with the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC).
* Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) launched Mission Mausam to make India a “Weather -ready and Climate -smart” nation.
* **Continuous Improvement:**
* Meteorological Centre, Bengaluru, seeks feedback from user communities and KSNDMC.
* MoU signed with GPS Institute of Agricultural Management and MC Bengaluru for timely delivery of weather advisories to farmers.
**Impact Analysis**
**Farmers, Fisherfolk, and Vulnerable Communities**
* **Impact**: Enhanced access to timely and accurate weather forecasts and warnings, improving their ability to protect their livelihoods and safety.
* **Action Required**: Utilize the weather information disseminated through WhatsApp groups and other platforms to make informed decisions.
**State Emergency Operation Centres/SDMA**
* **Impact**: Access to reliable weather forecasts and warnings enabling them to prepare and respond to severe weather events effectively.
* **Action Required**: Further disseminate weather information to the general public via CAP, social media, websites, WhatsApp groups, Mobile Apps, APIs, etc.
**India Meteorological Department (IMD)**
* **Impact**: Opportunity to improve their forecasting accuracy and dissemination strategies.
* **Action Required**: Continue to implement the latest forecasting techniques and technologies and maintain active collaboration with stakeholders.
**Ministry of Panchayati Raj (MoPR)**
* **Impact**: Improvement of the effectiveness of their services through the integration of weather information.
* **Action Required**: Ensure the accessibility of weather forecasts through digital platforms like e-Gramswaraj, Meri panchayat app, and e-Manchitra.
**Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC)**
* **Impact**: Enables to take Heat Action Plans with IMD.
* **Action Required**: Coordinate and collaborate with IMD to reduce the impact of climate change and extreme weather events.
Key Entities Referenced
India Meteorological Department (IMD): The primary agency responsible for weather forecasting and climate services, playing a central role in the initiatives described.
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES): The government ministry responsible for IMD and Mission Mausam, overseeing weather forecasting and climate change mitigation.
Gram Panchayat Level Weather Forecasting (GPLWF): A recently launched initiative by IMD in collaboration with the Ministry of Panchayati Raj to provide weather forecasts at the local level.
Karnataka: A state of India that is specifically mentioned as an example of the improvements in weather forecasting.
Mission Mausam: A mission launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences to make India a 'Weather -ready and Climate -smart' nation.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: STRENGTHENING
WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM
Key Improvements Achieved in Weather Forecasting
Posted On: 04 FEB 2026 3:27PM by PIB Delhi
The key improvement achieved in the weather forecasting accuracy is the overall increase of average skill of
the predictions by 30-40% during the last 10 years for all types of severe weather events over the Indian
region at lead time of 1-day to 5-day forecasts. For the State of Karnataka, if we consider, e.g., heavy rainfall
events, which are major severe weather events impacting the State, the skill of the latest 5-year warning of
heavy rainfall, including 2025, in terms of probability of detection (POD), is given below by Meteorological
Sub-division-wise.
For the North Interior Karnataka, it shows it has improved from 52% in 2021 to 88% in 2025 at 1- day lead
period, from 48% to 76% for 2-days lead period, 39% to 62% for 3-days lead period, 29% to 57% for 4-days
lead period, and 32% to 48% for 5-days lead period.
Similarly, for South Interior Karnataka, it improved from 58% to 70%; from 51% to 65%, from 45% to
67%, from 39% to 63%, and from 39% to 63% respectably during 2021 to 2025 at Day 1 to Day 5 lead
period and over Coastal Karnataka, it improved from 80% to 92%, from 75% to 89%, from 77% to 87%,
from 68% to 80% and from 72% to 79% during 2021 to 2025 at Day 1 to Day 5 lead period. Overall, a 15-
25% improvement is observed during 2020-2025 for day-1 to day-5 forecasts of heavy rainfall for the State
of Karnataka.
Regarding climate services, from 2021onwards, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been using
the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)-based forecasting strategy to prepare monthly and seasonal forecasting
of temperature and rainfall. The accuracy of monsoon prediction over the country has shown marked
improvement, with the average absolute error of all India forecast of 2.28% of the Long Period Average
(LPA) during the period 2021-2024, compared to that of 7.5% in the preceding four years (2017–2020).
IMD has been using all the latest techniques and technology for early warning dissemination. Currently, the
mobile-based alert system is operational to issue the CAP-based alert through SACHET. All these forecasts
and warnings are also shared with State Emergency Operation Centres/SDMA to further disseminate to the
general public via CAP. Similarly, it was shared via social media, Websites, WhatsApp groups, Mobile Apps,
APIs, etc.
Bharat Sarkar has launched the Gram Panchayat Level Weather Forecasting (GPLWF) initiative recently.
IMD, in collaboration with the Ministry of Panchayati Raj (MoPR), launched GPLWF for nearly all Gram
Panchayats in India on 24th October 2024. These forecasts are accessible on digital platforms such as e-
Gramswaraj (https://egramswaraj.gov.in/), the Meri panchayat app, e-Manchitra of MoPR, and Mausamgram
of IMD (https://mausamgram.imd.gov.in/).Benefiting farmers, fisherfolk and vulnerable communities
Because of initiation and specific intervention from the Government, a total of 3,63,806 farmers across
Karnataka are also directly connected in WhatsApp groups and are directly receiving forecasts & warnings.
For fisherfolk and vulnerable communities, including coastal fishing communities, warnings are also
disseminated via WhatsApp through the district collector group and the SDM group for all 3 coastal districts,
including Dakshina Kannada.
Expanding Doppler Weather Radar coverage, urban climate platforms and Heat Action Plans
Currently, 47 DWRs are in operation across the country, including one C-Band Doppler Weather Radar
operational from 26-11-2025, at Shaktinagar, Mangalore with 87% of the total area of the country coming
under radar coverage. Heat Action Plans have also been taken up in collaboration with the Karnataka State
Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC). Additionally, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
launched Mission Mausam with the goal of making India a “Weather -ready and Climate -smart” nation,
aiming to mitigate the impacts of climate change and extreme weater events.
Roadmap Ahead
Meteorological Centre, Bengaluru, is constantly seeking feedback from the user communities as well as
KSNDMC for strengthening the last-mile delivery of weather and climate advisories. In this regard, an MoU
has been signed with the GPS Institute of Agricultural Management and MC Bengaluru to ensure the timely
delivery of weather and climate advisories to farmers across Karnataka, in addition to Agromet Field Units
(AMFUs).
This information was submitted by Union Minster of State (Independent Charge) Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra
Singh in Loksabha on 4th February 2026.
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