**Summary:**
The Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution utilizes predictive models for price stabilization of essential commodities. Currently, a model-based price forecasting system, in conjunction with fundamental analysis, is primarily used for pulses. The Department of Consumer Affairs monitors daily prices of 38 essential food commodities collected from 566 price monitoring centers nationwide. This data, along with indicative price trends, informs decisions regarding calibrated releases from buffer stocks and adjustments to trade policies such as import duties and export restrictions. State-specific retail price and volatility data, including data from Odisha, are used to optimize interventions. Specifically, price variations within a state over the past month and year, relative to the all-India average, are compared to prioritize the release of onions from buffer stocks. In 2024-25, approximately 6,975 MT of onion were released in Bhubaneshwar, Odisha, to stabilize prices in both retail and wholesale markets. While predictive analytics, including fundamental analysis and price seasonality, are deployed for perishable commodities like onions and tomatoes, model-based forecasting is also used regularly.
Key Entities Referenced
Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution: The Indian government ministry responsible for consumer affairs, food, and public distribution.
SMT. SANGEETA KUMARI SINGH DEO: Member of LOK SABHA who raised the question about price stabilization of commodities.
SHRI B.L. VERMA: The Minister of State in the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution who provided the answer to the LOK SABHA question.
Odisha: A state in India, specifically mentioned in relation to retail prices, volatility, and onion release from buffer stocks.
pulses: An essential commodity for which the price forecasting model is used.
onions: A perishable commodity that the Government plans to expand predictive analytics to cover.
tomatoes: A perishable commodity that the Government plans to expand predictive analytics to cover.
Bhubaneshwar, Odisha: The capital city of Odisha, where onion was released to stabilize prices.
Government of India
Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution
Department of Consumer Affairs
LOK SABHA
UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 1783
TO BE ANSWERED ON 30.07.2025
USE OF PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR PRICE STABILIZATION OF COMMODITIES
1783. SMT. SANGEETA KUMARI SINGH DEO:
Will the Minister of CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC
DISTRIBUTION be pleased to state:
(a) whether the price forecasting model developed by the Government is currently being used to
predict retail prices of essential commodities beyond pulses and if so, the details of additional
commodities included;
(b) the number of instances since 2023 in which model-generated insights led to the Government
intervention through buffer stock release, duty rationalisation or export restrictions;
(c) whether any state-specific data on retail prices and volatility, including for Odisha is being
utilised to target such interventions more effectively and if so, the details thereof;
(d) whether the Government plans to expand predictive analytics to cover perishable commodities
such as onions and tomatoes; and
(e) if so, the details of expected timeline and implementation framework?
ANSWER
THE MINISTER OF STATE
CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
(SHRI B.L. VERMA)
(a) to (e) : Department of Consumer Affairs monitors the daily prices of 38 essential food commodities
submitted by the 566 price monitoring centres across the country. The daily report of prices and
indicative price trends are analysed for appropriate decisions on targeting the calibrated release of stocks
from the buffer, changes in trade policy instruments like rationalization of import duty, restrictions on
export of the commodity etc. Model based price forecasting model is being used in analyzing price trends
in respect of pulses, together with fundamental analysis, which takes into account details regarding the
crop and market dynamics to understand the emerging scenario and for formulating inputs for policy
decisions.
The analyses of price trends across the states are being used in calibrating and targeting the
release of onions from the buffer. For targeting the release, price variations in a state over the past one
month and one year and variations over all-India average are compared to determine and prioritise the
release. During 2024-25, about 6,975 MT of onion were released in Bhubaneshwar, Odisha both in the
retail as well as in wholesale markets to stabilize the prices.
The prices of perishable commodities like onion and tomato are being analysed using
fundamental analysis and price seasonality. These types of predictive analytics are deployed and being
used on regular basis, together with model basis forecasting.
*****