RBI Bulletin - Feb 20, 2026

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA BULLETIN F E B R U A R Y 2 0 2 6 RESERVE BANK OF INDIA B U L L E T I N F E B R U A R Y 2 0 2 6FEBRUARY 2026 VOLUME LXXX NUMBER 2Editorial Committee Sanjay Hansda Ravi Shankar Rekha Misra Anupam Prakash Sunil Kumar Rajeev Jain Snehal Herwadkar V. Dhanya Shweta Kumari Anirban Sanyal Sujata Kundu Editor Asish Thomas George The Reserve Bank of India Bulletin is issued monthly by the Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, under the direction of the Editorial Committee. The Central Board of the Bank is not responsible for interpretation and opinions expressed. In the case of signed articles, the responsibility is that of the author. © Reserve Bank of India 2026 All rights reserved. Reproduction is permitted provided an acknowledgement of the source is made. For subscription to Bulletin, please refer to Section ‘Recent Publications’ The Reserve Bank of India Bulletin can be accessed at https://bulletin.rbi.org.in RNI No. 13997/67 Printed and Published by G. V. Nadhanael on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, Shahid Bhagat Singh Road, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001. Printed at Jayant Printery LLP. 352/54, Girgaum Road, Murlidhar Temple Compound, Near Thakurdwar Post Office, Mumbai - 400 002.CONTENTS Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement (February 6, 2026) Governor’s Statement: February 6, 2026 1 Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) February 4 to 6, 2026 7 Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies 11 Speeches Values in Action: The Making of a Strong Institution 15 Shri Swaminathan J. Articles State of the Economy 17 Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment 49 Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications 67 Current Statistics 81 Recent Publications 136BI-MONTHLY MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT (FEBRUARY 4-6) 2025-26 Governor’s Statement Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) February 4 to 6, 2026 Statement on Developmental and Regulatory PoliciesGovernor’s Statement GOVERNOR’S STATEMENT Governor’s Statement* of the evolving macroeconomic conditions and the outlook, the MPC voted unanimously to keep Sanjay Malhotra the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent; consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate Good morning. I welcome you all to the first under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) remains policy of 2026. We are only in the second month of at 5.00 per cent and the marginal standing facility the new year and have already witnessed momentous (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 5.50 per cent. The actions on the geopolitical and trade-tariff fronts. MPC also decided to continue with the neutral stance. Amidst heightened geo-political tensions and I shall now briefly set out the rationale for the elevated uncertainty, the Indian economy is in a good MPC’s decision. spot with strong growth and low inflation. Inflation The MPC noted that since the last policy meeting, remains below the tolerance band and its outlook external headwinds have intensified though the continues to be benign. High frequency indicators successful completion of trade deals augurs well for suggest continuation of the strong growth momentum the economic outlook. Overall, the near-term domestic in Q3:2025-26 and beyond. With the signing of a inflation and growth outlook remain positive. landmark trade deal with the European Union and Headline inflation during November-December the US trade agreement in sight, growth momentum remained below the tolerance band of the inflation is likely to be sustained for a longer period. target. The revised outlook for CPI inflation in Global growth, supported by tech-investments, Q1:2026-27 and Q2 at 4.0 per cent and 4.2 per cent, accommodative financial conditions and large-scale respectively, continues to be benign and near the fiscal stimulus, is expected to be marginally stronger in inflation target. The slight upward revision in the 2026 than projected earlier. However, the confluence inflation outlook is primarily due to increase in of escalating geopolitical frictions and rising trade prices of precious metals, which contribute about 60- tensions is unravelling the existing world economic 70 basis points. The underlying inflation continues order. Inflation outcomes are heterogeneous across to be low. jurisdictions – remaining above target in most major On the growth front, economic activity remains advanced economies – prompting a divergence resilient. The First Advance Estimates suggest in monetary policy actions as central banks near continuing growth momentum, driven by domestic the end of their current easing cycles. Against a factors amidst a challenging external environment. global backdrop that has increasingly become more The growth outlook remains favourable. cautious, bond market sentiments remain bearish Based on a comprehensive review of the domestic reflecting fiscal sustainability concerns. However, macroeconomic conditions and the outlook, the equity markets, driven by tech stocks, remain upbeat. MPC is of the view that the current policy rate is Decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) appropriate. Accordingly, the MPC voted to continue with the existing policy rate. The MPC also agreed to The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on the retain the neutral stance. Going forward, the MPC will 4th, 5th and 6th of February to deliberate and decide be guided by the evolving macroeconomic conditions on the policy repo rate. After a detailed assessment and the outlook based on data from the new series in * Governor’s Statement - February 6, 2026. charting the future course of monetary policy. RBI Bulletin February 2026 1GOVERNOR’S STATEMENT Governor’s Statement Assessment of Growth and Inflation from IT firms suggest an improvement in business activity.9 Growth On the demand side, the momentum in private The Indian economy continues on a steadily consumption is expected to sustain in 2026-27. improving trajactory, with real GDP poised to Rural demand remains steady,10 with improving register significantly higher growth of 7.4 per agricultural activity and rural labour market cent in 2025-26, as compared to the previous year. conditions.11 Recovery in urban consumption should Amidst global headwinds, private consumption further strengthen with continued support from GST and fixed investment supported growth.1 Net rationalisation and monetary easing. High capacity utilisation,12 accelerating bank credit,13 conducive external demand, however, remained a drag, financial conditions, and government’s continued with imports outpacing exports. On the supply emphasis on infrastructure14 should give an impetus side, growth in real GVA, on the back of a strong to investment activity. Moreover, several measures contribution from the services sector and revival in announced in the Union Budget should also be manufacturing activity, is estimated at 7.3 per cent conducive for growth.15 The recently concluded India- in 2025-26.2 EU free trade agreement (FTA) and the prospective India-USA trade deal along with several other trade Going forward, economic activity is agreements will support exports over the medium- expected to hold up well in 2026-27. Agricultural term. Services exports should remain resilient.16 The activity will be supported by healthy reservoir spillovers emanating from geopolitical tensions, levels,3 robust rabi sowing,4 and improvement in volatility in international financial markets and crop vegetation conditions.5 Improving corporate shifting trade patterns pose risks to the outlook. sector performance6 and sustained momentum in 9 Early results of IT companies suggest an improvement in performance, informal sector should boost manufacturing activity. with net sales growth rising to 8.4 per cent in Q3:2025–26 from 6.7 per cent in Q2:2025–26, and operating profit growth increasing to 10.3 per cent Construction sector growth is expected to remain from 7.2 per cent in the previous quarter. Wage growth also accelerated in firm.7 Services sector should continue to be resilient, Q3 (from 5.6 per cent to 6.5 per cent), indicating a broad-based increase in the nominal GVA of IT companies. with strengthening domestic demand.8 Early results 10 Two-wheeler and tractor retail sales registered double digit growth of 18.7 per cent and 28.8 per cent, respectively, in Q3: 2025-26. 11 According to the monthly periodic labour force survey (PLFS), all-India 1 As per the first advance estimates (FAE), private final consumption unemployment rate remained low at 4.8 per cent in December. Demand for expenditure (PFCE) is estimated to grow at 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 vis-à-vis work under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee 7.2 per cent in the previous year. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is Scheme (MGNREGS) declined by 29.0 per cent in December. estimated to expand strongly by 7.8 per cent as against 7.1 per cent growth 12 As per the quarterly order books, inventories, and capacity utilisation in the last year. (OBICUS) survey of the RBI, seasonally adjusted capacity utilisation (CU) 2 As per the FAE of 2025-26, services sector GVA recorded a growth of 8.8 of the manufacturing sector at 74.8 per cent in Q2:2025-26 was above the per cent and manufacturing sector GVA expanded by 7.0 per cent. long-term average of 73.9 per cent. 3 All-India reservoirs level stood at 66.6 per cent of the total capacity as 13 Bank credit to textiles, chemicals, base metals, and engineering goods on February 5, 2026, as against 61.4 per cent a year ago and a decadal increased y-o-y by 11.8 per cent, 14.8 per cent, 14.2 per cent, and 30.4 per average of 53.3 per cent. cent, respectively, in December 2025. 4 Rabi sowing grew by 2.4 per cent as on January 30, 2026. 14 The central government’s capex is budgeted to expand by 11.5 per cent 5 Satellite-based Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) monitored by ISRO in 2026-27. Effective capital expenditure (including grants-in-aid to state indicates improved rabi crop vegetation health in north-western and governments for capital expenditure) is budgeted to grow at 22.1 per cent. western regions during January 2026 relative to the corresponding period 15 Major sectoral measures include (i) setting up of MSME Growth Fund, last year. India Semiconductor Mission (ISM) 2.0, regional medical hubs, new Freight 6 Early results from a limited set of listed private manufacturing Corridors, Infrastructure Risk Guarantee Fund, three dedicated Chemical companies indicate an increase in operating profit by 8.3 per cent in Parks and (ii) introduction of Scheme for Enhancement of Construction Q3:2025-26 (2.7 per cent in Q3:2024-25). and Infrastructure Equipment, Scheme for Container Manufacturing, and 7 Cement production growth accelerated to 11.1 percent in Q3:2025-26. Integrated Programme for labour intensive textile sector. 8 Services PMI remained in a strong expansionary zone at 58.0 in 16 Services export expanded sharply by 13.0 per cent in December from December and strengthened further to 58.5 in January 2026. 6.7 per cent recorded in November 2025. 2 RBI Bulletin February 2026Governor’s Statement GOVERNOR’S STATEMENT Taking all these factors into consideration, real decline in prices observed during Q4:2024-25 would GDP growth projections for Q1:2026-27 and Q2 are lead to an uptick in y-o-y inflation in Q4:2025-26. revised upwards to 6.9 per cent and 7.0 per cent, Considering all these factors, CPI inflation for 2025-26 respectively.17 The risks are evenly balanced. We are is now projected at 2.1 per cent with Q4 at 3.2 per cent. deferring the projections for the full year to the April CPI inflation for Q1:2026-27 and Q2 are projected at policy as the new GDP series will be released later in 4.0 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively. Excluding the month. precious metals, the underlying inflation pressures Inflation remain muted. The risks are evenly balanced. Headline CPI inflation remained low in In view of the impending release of the new November and December even as it firmed up by one CPI series (base 2024=100) on February 12, 202622, percentage point in these two months. This increase similar to growth, we will present CPI inflation was largely driven by the lower rate of deflation in the projection for the full year 2026-27 in the April 2026 food group.18 Excluding gold, core inflation remained Policy Statement. stable at 2.6 per cent in December19. External Sector Near-term outlook suggests that food supply Despite heightened uncertainty, global trade prospects remain bright on the back of healthy kharif remained relatively robust. India’s merchandise production20, sufficient buffer stocks of foodgrains21, exports, supported by trade diversification efforts, favourable rabi sowing and adequate reservoir levels. grew by 1.9 per cent (y-o-y) in Q3:2025-26 whereas Core inflation, barring potential volatility induced merchandise imports grew by 7.9 per cent (y-o-y) by prices of precious metals, is expected to be during the same period resulting in a widening of the range-bound. Geopolitical uncertainty coupled with trade deficit.23 Robust services exports24 and healthy volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events pose upside risks to inflation. inward remittance receipts25 would keep India’s current account deficit for the current year moderate In terms of the headline inflation trajectory, and sustainable. Moreover, India’s proactive efforts despite the anticipated momentum being muted, in pursuing bilateral and regional trade agreements unfavourable base effects stemming from large with major trading partners are expected to boost 17 Projections for full year 2026-27 will be set out in the Monetary Policy international trade and investment, diversify trading Statement to be announced in April 2026 after incorporating the new partners and integrate India into global value chains.26 GDP and CPI series (base 2024=100) to be released on February 27 and February 12, 2026, respectively. 18 Food group registered a deflation of (-) 1.8 per cent in December 2025 on 22 The new series is likely to incorporate methodological changes, a y-o-y basis, narrowing from (-) 3.7 per cent and (-) 2.8 per cent in October improved data collection and revised weights based on the HCES 2023-24. and November respectively. Within food group, vegetables, pulses, and 23 As India’s merchandise imports grew faster than merchandise exports, spices recorded a deflation of (-) 18.5 per cent, (-) 15.1 per cent and (-) 2.2 trade deficit rose to US$ 91.5 billion in Q3:2025-26 from US$ 88.0 billion per cent, respectively, albeit at a slower rate. in Q2:2025-26 and US$ 78.7 billion in Q3:2024-25. 19 Core inflation hardened to 4.6 per cent in December from 4.3 per cent 24 During Q3:2025-26, services exports at US$ 111.2 billion grew at 7.5 per during October-November, owing to a surge in gold prices. Gold inflation cent y-o-y, while services imports at US$ 53.7 billion expanded by 2.7 per (over 50 per cent y-o-y since October 2025) contributed disproportionately cent. Net services exports grew by 12.3 per cent y-o-y and stood at US$ 57.5 to headline and core numbers. billion during the same period. 20 As per the First Advance Estimates of agricultural production, kharif 25 India’s inward remittances increased by 10.7 per cent y-o-y to US$ 39.0 foodgrains in 2025-26 is estimated to be 2.3 per cent higher than the final billion in Q2:2025-26. estimates of 2024-25. 26 Trade deals with the UK and Oman have been signed; trade deal with 21 As on January 16, 2026, the rice and wheat stock stood at 731 lakh the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) came into effect from October tonnes (9.6 times the buffer norm) and 269 lakh tonnes (1.9 times the 1, 2025; trade deals with New Zealand and the European Union have been buffer norm), respectively. concluded; and trade deal with the US has been announced. RBI Bulletin February 2026 3GOVERNOR’S STATEMENT Governor’s Statement On the external financing side, gross foreign durable liquidity augmenting measures in the second direct investment (FDI) to India increased at a half of January and February 2026.33 robust pace during April-November 2025. Net FDI In response to the cumulative 125 bps cut in the also increased as repatriations declined, despite a policy repo rate, the weighted average lending rate rise in outward FDI.27 India continues to remain an (WALR) of Scheduled Commercial Banks declined attractive FDI destination for greenfield by 105 bps for fresh rupee loans during February- projects.28 Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) to India December 2025 (the interest rate effect34 is 94 bps)35. this year so far (April- February 3)29, however, recorded The weighted average domestic term deposit rate net outflows of US$ 5.8 billion. As on 30th January, (WADTDR) on fresh deposits declined by 95 bps, 2026, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ while that on outstanding deposits softened by 41 723.8 billion, providing a robust merchandise import bps over the same period. cover of more than 11 months. Overall, India’s external sector remains resilient.30 We are confident Money market rates, especially for commercial of meeting our external financing requirements papers (CPs) and certificates of deposit (CDs), comfortably. tightened in January 2026 reflecting (i) moderation in surplus liquidity; (ii) excess supply from bunching of Liquidity and Financial Market Conditions redemptions in CPs and CDs in January; and (iii) year- System liquidity, as measured by the net position end seasonal effects.36 G-sec yields, mirroring global under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF), stood trends, have continued to harden over the last eight at a surplus of ₹0.7 lakh crore (on a daily average basis) months37 due to a host of factors. since the last MPC meeting in December 2025.31 The Going ahead, the Reserve Bank will remain Reserve Bank undertook several measures to provide proactive in liquidity management and ensure durable liquidity in December and January32. Based sufficient liquidity in the banking system to meet on assessment of systemic liquidity and its outlook, the productive requirements of the economy the Reserve Bank announced and undertook further and to facilitate monetary policy transmission. 27 Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to India grew by 16.1 per cent to US$ 64.7 billion in April-November 2025-26 from US$ 55.8 billion Liquidity management would be pre-emptive with a year ago. Net FDI inflows stood higher at US$ 5.6 billion during April- sufficient allowance for unanticipated fluctuations November 2025-26 from US$ 0.8 billion a year ago. 28 During 2025-26 (April-November), greenfield project announcements to in government balances, changes in currency in India stood at US$ 56 billion, marginally lower than US$ 63 billion a year circulation, forex intervention, etc. ago. Top 5 FDI announcements during the year have been by the Amazon, Microsoft, Google, MUFG Bank and Hynfra, which augurs well for FDI inflows, going forward. 33 The Reserve Bank conducted additional OMO purchase auctions 29 During 2025-26 (April-February 3), FPI to India recorded net outflows to amounting to ₹1,00,000 crore, long term forex buy/sell swaps of USD 10 billion, 90-day VRR operation of ₹25,000 crore and a second 90-day VRR the tune of US$ 7.5 billion from the equity segment, while debt segment registered net inflows of US$ 1.7 billion. operation of ₹1,11,500 crore for January and February 2026. 30 India’s external debt to GDP ratio rose marginally to 19.2 per cent at 34 Interest rate effect on transmission to weighted average lending rate (WALR) is calculated by keeping the weight constant (as of January 2025). end-September 2025 from 19.1 per cent at end-March 2025, while the net international investment position (IIP) moderated to (-) 7.2 per cent of 35 The moderation in the weighted average lending rate (WALR) of GDP at end-September 2025 from (-) 8.6 per cent of GDP at end-March outstanding rupee loans has been to the extent of 81 bps. Transmission 2025. has been broad-based across sectors. 31 The average daily net absorption under the liquidity adjustment 36 In response to the cumulative policy repo rate cut of 125 basis points facility (LAF) during October and November stood at ₹0.9 lakh crore and (bps) in the current easing cycle, the WACR, the 3-month T-bill rate, the ₹1.9 lakh crore, respectively. The average daily net absorption under the 3-month CP issued by NBFCs, and the 3-month CD rate declined by 89 bps, LAF declined to ₹0.8 lakh crore in December 2025 and January 2026. In 119 bps, 143 bps, and 127 bps, respectively up to end-December, 2025. February 2026 (up to February 4), average daily net absorption under the However, since the beginning of January and up to February 4, 2026, the LAF increased to ₹1.8 lakh crore. 3-month T-bill rate, the 3-month CP issued by NBFCs, and the 3-month CD 32 The Reserve Bank conducted OMO purchase auctions amounting to rate have hardened by 6 bps, 73 bps and 84 bps, respectively. ₹3,50,000 crore and long-term forex buy/sell swap auction of USD 15.1 37 The 10-year G-sec yield hardened to 6.65 per cent as on February 5, billion in December 2025 and January 2026. 2026 from 6.51 per cent as on December 4, 2025. 4 RBI Bulletin February 2026Governor’s Statement GOVERNOR’S STATEMENT Financial Stability sectors, particularly retail, services and MSMEs. Large industries also recorded higher credit growth. The system-level financial parameters related to capital adequacy, liquidity, asset quality and Additional Measures profitability of Scheduled Commercial Banks I shall now announce some measures that aim (SCBs) continue to remain robust.38 Similarly, the to enhance customer protection, advance financial system-level parameters of NBFCs too are sound, inclusion, enhance flow of credit, strengthen UCBs, with adequate capital position and improved asset promote ease of doing business for NBFCs, and quality39. deepen financial markets. As per latest available data, credit from all Empowering customers sources grew at 13.8 per cent (y-o-y), as compared to For customer protection, we will issue three draft 11.6 per cent (y-o-y) a year ago40. Bank credit growth guidelines: one, relating to mis-selling; two, regarding too recorded an uptick in recent months.41 This recovery of loans and engagement of recovery agents; growth42 is supported by sustained lending to all and three, on limiting liability of customers in un- 38 SCB Parameters: The outstanding credit and deposits increased by authorised electronic banking transactions. It is also 14.54 per cent and 12.68 per cent on a y-o-y basis, respectively, between December 2024 and December 2025. The system-level Capital to Risk proposed to introduce a framework to compensate Weighted Assets Ratio (CRAR) of 17.24 per cent in September 2025 was well above the regulatory minimum level. There was continued improvement customers up to an amount of ₹25000/- for loss in asset quality with the GNPA and NNPA ratios at 2.05 per cent and 0.47 incurred in small-value fraudulent transactions. per cent respectively in September 2025 vis-à-vis 2.54 per cent and 0.48 per cent in September 2024. Liquidity buffers were robust, with an LCR of We will also publish a discussion paper on 131.68 per cent as of end September 2025. The annualised return on assets (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) stood at 1.32 per cent and 13.06 per cent, possible measures to enhance the safety of digital respectively, in September 2025. Net Interest Margin was 3.26 per cent for payments. Such measures may include lagged credits September 2025 (3.52 per cent in September 2024). 39 NBFC Parameters: Total CRAR of NBFCs was 25.11 per cent and Tier and additional authentication for specific class of I CRAR was 23.27 per cent in September 2025, well above the minimum regulatory requirements. GNPA ratio has improved from 2.57 per cent in users like senior citizens. September 2024 to 2.21 per cent in September 2025, while NNPA ratio also improved from 1.04 per cent in September 2024 to 0.99 per cent in Advancing financial inclusion and flow of credit September 2025. RoA for the sector decreased slightly from 3.25 per cent in September 2024 to 2.83 per cent in September 2025. NIM has slightly In the financial inclusion space, we have decreased from 5.51% in September 2024 to 4.24 per cent in September comprehensively reviewed the Lead Bank Scheme, 2025. 40 The total flow of resources from bank and non-bank sources to the Kisan Credit Card Scheme and the Business commercial sector stood higher at ₹29.6 lakh crore in 2025-26 so far as compared to ₹23.3 lakh crore in the corresponding period of the previous Correspondent Model. We shall issue draft revised financial year. The increase in flows from non-food bank credit (₹5.04 lakh guidelines with respect to them. A unified reporting crore) and corporate bond issuances by non-financial entities (₹1.4 lakh crore) have been the major drivers of this growth. portal will also be launched by us for better 41 On a year-on-year basis, bank credit registered a growth of 13.1 per cent management of LBS data. as on January 15, 2026, compared to 11.5 per cent a year ago. During the same period, deposit growth at 10.6 per cent was lower than 10.8 per cent The limit of ₹10 lakh for collateral-free loans to a year ago. During 2025-26 (up to January 15, 2026), the incremental credit to deposit (C/D) ratio was placed at 98.4. MSMEs is proposed to be increased to ₹20 lakh. 42 Sectoral non-food credit data are based on sector-wise and industry- wise bank credit (SIBC) return, which covers select banks accounting To further promote financing to real estate sector, for about 95 per cent of total non-food credit extended by all SCBs, pertaining to the last reporting Friday of the month. Data available till it is proposed to allow banks to lend to REITs with December 2025. Effective December 31, 2025, definition of last reporting certain prudential safeguards. fortnight has been changed to the last day of the month under the Banking Laws (Amendment) Act 2025. Accordingly, the y-o-y growth rates from Strengthening UCBs December 2025 onwards are based on end-of-month data for the current year and data for the last reporting fortnight (as per old definition) for the corresponding month of the previous year. We have four measures for UCBs. RBI Bulletin February 2026 5GOVERNOR’S STATEMENT Governor’s Statement The first two pertain to raising the financial Furthermore, in pursuance of the announcement limits on unsecured loans and loans to nominal made in the Union Budget 2026-27, we propose to members by UCBs. issue the regulatory framework for derivatives on We also propose to remove the tenor and corporate bond indices and total return swaps on moratorium related requirements on housing loans corporate bonds. given by Tier III and Tier IV UCBs. It is also proposed to issue draft revised guidelines To strengthen the managerial and technical for Authorised Dealer banks and stand-alone primary capacity of the UCBs, we shall launch Mission- dealers (SPDs), allowing them more flexibility in SAKSHAM (Sahakari Bank Kshamta Nirman). The undertaking foreign exchange transactions. mission intends to train over 1.4 lakh participants from UCBs. Concluding Remarks Promoting Ease of doing business for NBFCs Before I conclude, I would like to inform that the NBFCs having no public funds and customer Reserve Bank observes Financial Literacy Week (FLW) interface, with asset size not exceeding ₹1000 crore, every year on specific themes of financial education. are proposed to be exempted from the requirement The campaign this year will be launched on 9th of registration. February. In continuation of our ongoing endeavour Moreover, it is proposed to dispense with on re-KYC of bank accounts, the theme this year is the requirement for certain NBFCs to obtain prior ‘KYC – Your First Step to Safe Banking’. I urge all approval to open more than 1000 branches. banks to actively take part in the campaign. Deepening financial markets To conclude, the Indian economy continues to Coming to financial markets, we had earlier register high growth despite a challenging external issued revised draft regulations for ECBs. They have environment clouded by geo-political uncertainties. been finalized and shall be notified shortly. Benign inflation provides the leeway to remain We also propose to remove the limit of ₹2.5 growth-supportive while preserving financial lakh crore for investments under the Voluntary stability. We remain committed to meet the productive Retention Route (VRR). Investment through the VRR requirements of the economy and sustain the growth in each category of securities will be subject to the momentum. investment ceiling for the respective category under the General Route. Thank you. Namaskar and Jai Hind. 6 RBI Bulletin February 2026Monetary Policy Statement, 2025-26 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT 2025-26 Monetary Policy Statement, On the domestic front, real gross domestic product (GDP), as per the First Advance Estimates 2025-26 Resolution of the (FAE), is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent (y-o-y) in Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) 2025-26. Private consumption and fixed investment contributed significantly to overall growth. Net February 4 to 6, 2026* external demand, however, continued to be a drag, with imports outpacing exports. On the supply side, Monetary Policy Decisions real GVA growth of 7.3 per cent is driven by buoyant The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its services sector, resilient agricultural sector and 59th meeting from February 4 to 6, 2026, under the revival in manufacturing activity. chairmanship of Shri Sanjay Malhotra, Governor, Looking ahead, sustained buoyancy in services Reserve Bank of India. The MPC members Dr. Nagesh sector, GST rationalisation, healthy rabi prospects, Kumar, Shri Saugata Bhattacharya, Prof. Ram Singh, monetary easing and benign inflation environment Dr. Poonam Gupta and Shri Indranil Bhattacharyya should support private consumption. Investment attended the meeting. activity, supported by high capacity utilisation, After a detailed assessment of the evolving conducive financial conditions, healthy balance macroeconomic and financial developments and the sheets of financial institutions and corporates, robust outlook, the MPC voted unanimously to keep the credit growth and Government’s continued thrust policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility on capital expenditure, is expected to maintain its (LAF) unchanged at 5.25 per cent. Consequently, the momentum. Moreover, robust domestic demand standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains at 5.00 is likely to attract fresh investments by the private per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate sector. While services exports are expected to remain and the Bank Rate remains at 5.50 per cent. The MPC strong, merchandise exports will get a boost from the also decided to continue with the neutral stance. prospective trade deal with the US. The landmark Growth and Inflation Outlook comprehensive trade pact with the European Union coupled with trade deals with New Zealand and The global economy showed remarkable resilience Oman should help diversify exports and strengthen in 2025, aided and supported by trade frontloading, the external sector. On the other hand, headwinds a milderthananticipated impact of tariffs, broad from geopolitical tensions, uncertain global trade fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary environment, volatility in global financial markets policy. Inflation is on a path of gradual decline, and international commodity prices continue to pose although it remains above target in several advanced downside risks to the outlook. Taking all these factors economies. US yields are trading with an upward into consideration, real GDP growth projections for bias amidst receding expectations of imminent rate Q1:2026-27 and Q2 are revised upwards to 6.9 per cuts underpinned by firm economic data. Equities, supported by sustained investment in tech stocks, cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively (Chart 1).1 The have advanced, even as fiscal strains, geopolitical risks are evenly balanced. uncertainty and monetary policy divergence continue 1 Projections for full year 2026-27 will be set out in the Monetary Policy to impart volatility to financial markets. Resolution to be announced in April 2026 after incorporating the new GDP and CPI series (base 2024=100) to be released on February 27 and * Released on February 6, 2025. February 12, 2026, respectively. RBI Bulletin February 2026 7MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT 2025-26 Monetary Policy Statement, 2025-26 Headline CPI inflation remained low at 0.7 per with Q4 at 3.2 per cent. CPI inflation for Q1:2026-27 cent in November and 1.3 per cent in December, and Q2 are projected at 4.0 per cent and 4.2 per cent, 2025. While food group continued to be in deflation, respectively (Chart 2). Excluding precious metals, the inflation within the fuel group remained moderate underlying inflation pressures remain muted. The in November and December. Core inflation (CPI risks are evenly balanced. excluding food and fuel) too remained benign, despite Rationale for Monetary Policy Decisions the pick up in prices of precious metals. Excluding The MPC noted that since the last policy meeting, gold, core inflation remained stable at 2.6 per cent in external headwinds have intensified though the December. successful completion of trade deals augurs well for Near-term outlook suggests that food the economic outlook. Overall, the near-term domestic supply prospects remain bright on the back of inflation and growth outlook remain positive. healthy kharif production, adequate buffer stocks of Headline inflation during November-December foodgrains and favourable rabi sowing. Core inflation, remained below the tolerance band of the barring potential volatility induced by prices of inflation target. The outlook for CPI inflation in precious metals, is expected to be range-bound. Q1:2026-27 and Q2 continues to be benign and near Geopolitical uncertainty coupled with volatility in the inflation target. The slight upward revision in energy prices and adverse weather events are other the inflation outlook is primarily due to increase in possible upside risks to inflation. In terms of headline prices of precious metals, which contribute about 60- inflation trajectory, unfavourable base effects 70 basis points. The underlying inflation continues stemming from large decline in prices observed in to be low. Q4:2024-25 would lead to an uptick in y-o-y inflation in Q4:2025-26, despite the anticipated momentum On the growth front, economic activity remains being muted. Considering all these factors, CPI resilient. The First Advance Estimates suggest inflation for 2025-26 is now projected at 2.1 per cent continuing growth momentum, driven by domestic 8 RBI Bulletin February 2026 tnec reP Chart 1: Quarterly Projection of Real GDP Growth (y-o-y) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 50 per cent CI 70 per cent CI 90 per cent CI CI - Confidence Interval 32-2202:2Q 32-2202:3Q 32-2202:4Q 42-3202:1Q 42-3202:2Q 42-3202:3Q 42-3202:4Q 52-4202:1Q 52-4202:2Q 52-4202:3Q 52-4202:4Q 62-5202:1Q 62-5202:2Q 62-5202:3Q 62-5202:4Q 72-6202:1Q 72-6202:2Q Chart 2: Quarterly Projection of CPI Inflation (y-o-y) 50 per cent CI 70 per cent CI 90 per cent CI CI - Confidence Interval tnec reP 10 8 6 4 2 0 32-2202:2Q 32-2202:3Q 32-2202:4Q 42-3202:1Q 42-3202:2Q 42-3202:3Q 42-3202:4Q 52-4202:1Q 52-4202:2Q 52-4202:3Q 52-4202:4Q 62-5202:1Q 62-5202:2Q 62-5202:3Q 62-5202:4Q 72-6202:1Q 72-6202:2QMonetary Policy Statement, 2025-26 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT 2025-26 factors amidst a challenging external environment. from neutral to accommodative. Going forward, the The growth outlook remains favourable. MPC will be guided by the evolving macroeconomic conditions and the outlook based on data from the Based on a comprehensive review of the domestic new series in charting the future course of monetary macroeconomic conditions and the outlook, the policy. MPC is of the view that the current policy rate is The minutes of the MPC’s meeting will be appropriate. Accordingly, the MPC voted to continue published on February 20, 2026. with the existing policy rate. The MPC also agreed to retain the neutral stance. However, Prof. Ram The next meeting of the MPC is scheduled for Singh retained his view that the stance be changed April 6 - 8, 2026. RBI Bulletin February 2026 9Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies STATEMENT ON DEVELOPMENTAL AND REGULATORY POLICIES Statement on Developmental transactions were issued in 2017, which deal with scenarios and timelines for zero / limited liability of a and Regulatory Policies customer. In view of the rapid adoption of technology in the banking sector and payments systems, This Statement sets out various developmental since issuance of these instructions, the existing and regulatory policy measures relating to (i) instructions have been reviewed. Accordingly, the Regulations; (ii) Payments System; (iii) Financial draft revised instructions, including a framework Inclusion; (iv) Financial Markets; and (v) Capacity for compensation in case of small value fraudulent Building. transactions, shall be issued shortly for public I. Regulations consultation. 1. Advertising, Marketing and Sales of Financial 4. Bank Lending to Real Estate Investment Trusts Products and Services by Regulated Entities (REs) (REITs) Mis-selling financial products and services Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and by any RE has significant consequences for both Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) were customers as well as the RE. There is a felt need to conceptualised in India with a view to free up banks’ ensure that third party products and services that funds in completed and operational real estate are being sold at the bank counters are suitable to and infrastructure projects by refinancing such customer needs and are commensurate with the exposures with pooled funds of institutional as well risk appetite of individual clients. It has therefore as retail investors. Consistent with these objectives, been decided to issue comprehensive instructions to commercial banks were not permitted, ab initio, to REs on advertising, marketing and sales of financial lend to these entities. While bank lending to InvITs products and services. The draft instructions in this was allowed subsequently, lending to REITs was not regard shall be issued shortly for public consultation. permitted hitherto. Upon review and considering the presence of strong regulatory and governance 2. Conduct of Regulated Entities in Recovery of framework for listed REITs, it is proposed to permit Loans and Engagement of Recovery Agents commercial banks to extend finance to REITs, subject Currently, different sets of instructions are to appropriate prudential safeguards. The existing applicable to different categories of Regulated Entities guidelines in respect of lending to InvITs are also being (REs) with respect to the engagement of recovery harmonised for parity with prudential safeguards agents and conduct related aspects of loan recovery. proposed for lending to REITs. Draft directions in this It has now been decided to review and harmonise regard will be issued shortly for public consultation. all the extant conduct related instructions on 5. Review of Lending norms for UCBs engagement of recovery agents and other aspects In the recent past, several regulatory measures related to recovery of loans. Accordingly, the draft have been undertaken with the objective of providing instructions in this regard shall be issued shortly for greater flexibility to UCBs in their lending operations. public consultation. It is now proposed to rationalise the extant regulatory 3. Review of framework of Limiting Customer norms applicable for unsecured loans by UCBs; limits Liability in digital transactions for lending to nominal members; and the tenor and The extant instructions on limiting the liability moratorium requirements for housing loans. The of customers in unauthorised electronic banking proposed review shall adopt inter alia, a tiered and RBI Bulletin February 2026 11STATEMENT ON DEVELOPMENTAL AND Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies REGULATORY POLICIES simplified approach while maintaining prudential structural shift in the way individuals and businesses discipline, taking into consideration the growth in conduct financial transactions. However, it has total loans and advances of the UCBs over the past been accompanied with growing sophistication of few years. Draft directions in this regard will be fraudulent activities targeting innocent customers. issued shortly for public consultation. In alignment with the objective of promoting digital payments in a safe and secure manner, it 6. Exemption from registration to eligible NBFCs is proposed to issue a Discussion Paper exploring not availing public funds and not having customer the introduction of calibrated safeguards in digital interface (including ‘Type I NBFCs’) payments such as introduction of lagged credits, The Scale-Based Regulatory Framework for additional authentication for specific class of users NBFCs envisages differential regulatory treatment for like senior citizens, etc. The proposed measures are NBFCs that do not avail public funds and do not have intended to mitigate frauds and strengthen customer any customer interface. Given their unique nature, protection. a review of the regulations presently applicable to III. Financial Inclusion these NBFCs has been undertaken. Considering their significantly lower systemic-risk profile, it is proposed 9. Revision in Lead Bank Scheme that such Type-I NBFCs with asset size not exceeding The Reserve Bank has undertaken a detailed ₹1,000 crore, may be exempted from registration review of the existing guidelines on Lead Bank Scheme requirement with the Reserve Bank subject to certain (LBS). It is now proposed to issue a comprehensive specified conditions. The proposed exemption will set of instructions on the Scheme with a view to reduce compliance requirements for these NBFCs. streamline the operational aspects. In the revised Accordingly, draft Amendment Directions will be Scheme, the objectives of LBS and the framework to issued shortly for feedback from stakeholders. achieve them are proposed to be delineated clearly. 7. Amendment of NBFC Branch Authorisation The revised guidelines are expected to enhance the Directions-2025 effectiveness of the Scheme. The draft Circular will At per extant regulatory requirement, NBFC - be issued shortly for public consultation. In addition, Investment and Credit Companies (ICCs) engaged in the Reserve Bank will be launching a unified portal the business of lending against gold collateral with for reporting of Bank-wise LBS data which is currently over 1,000 branches are required to obtain prior fragmented across various portals. This is expected RBI approval for opening new branches. In view to significantly enhance the data quality and provide of the comprehensive prudential and governance better insights towards achieving the objectives of framework applicable to NBFC-ICCs, it is proposed LBS. to dispense with the requirement of prior approval 10. Revision in the Guidelines of Kisan Credit Card for opening branches by such NBFCs. The draft (KCC) instructions in this regard shall be issued shortly seeking stakeholders’ comments. The Reserve Bank has comprehensively reviewed the KCC Scheme with a view to expand coverage, II. Payments System streamline operational aspects and address emerging 8. Discussion Paper on “Exploring safeguards in requirements. It is now proposed to issue a revised set digital payments to curb frauds” of instructions to banks on the Scheme, consolidating Over the past decade, digital payments in India those on agriculture and allied activities. The proposed have expanded at an unprecedented pace, reflecting a guidelines include, among others, standardisation of 12 RBI Bulletin February 2026Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies STATEMENT ON DEVELOPMENTAL AND REGULATORY POLICIES crop season, extension of KCC tenure to six years, 1, 2026, that total return swaps on corporate bonds alignment of drawing limit with Scale of Finance and derivatives on corporate bond indices will be (SoF) for each crop season and inclusion of expenses introduced. Accordingly, a regulatory framework on technological interventions. The draft guidelines to enable the introduction of derivatives on credit will be issued shortly. indices and total return swaps on corporate bonds will be issued shortly for public feedback. 11. Review of guidelines relating to use of Business Correspondents (BCs) by banks 14. Foreign Exchange Dealings of Authorised Dealers Business Correspondents have been functioning Banks and standalone primary dealers authorised as critical enablers of last mile access to financial under FEMA, 1999, access the foreign exchange market services, particularly in respect of underserved, rural, for market making, balance sheet management and and remote locations. Reserve Bank had set up a hedging of risks. The regulatory framework governing committee, consisting of officials from Reserve Bank, the facilities for such Authorised Dealers (ADs) has DFS, IBA and NABARD, to comprehensively examine been reviewed, rationalised and refined in view their operations and make suitable recommendations of the current market practices and requirements, for enhancing their efficiency. Basis the Committee’s domestically and globally. The revised framework recommendations, the related regulatory guidelines provides these ADs with greater flexibility with respect are being reviewed, and the draft amendment to foreign exchange products, risk management and directions will be placed for public consultations platforms. Draft directions in this regard will be shortly. issued shortly for public consultation. 12. Enhancement in Collateral free loan limit from 15. Review of the Voluntary Retention Route for FPI ₹10 lakh to ₹20 lakh investment in debt instruments With a view to facilitate improved access to The Voluntary Retention Route (VRR) was formal credit, support entrepreneurial activity and introduced by the Reserve Bank in March 2019 to strengthen last mile credit delivery for Micro and provide an additional channel for investments by Small Enterprises (MSEs) with limited collateral, it Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) with long-term has been decided to enhance the limit of collateral investment interest in the Indian debt markets. free loans to MSEs from ₹10 lakh to ₹20 lakh. The Over the years, the Bank has been recalibrating the above provisions shall be applicable to all loans to Route to improve operational flexibilities and ease MSE borrowers sanctioned or renewed on or after of doing business. The VRR has been witnessing April 01, 2026. Instructions in this regard will be active investment by FPIs, and over 80 per cent of issued shortly. the current investment limit of ₹2.5 lakh crore has been utilised. With a view to ensuring predictability IV. Financial Markets about the availability of investment limits under the 13. Development of corporate bond market VRR and to further increase ease of doing business, An active derivatives market can facilitate it has been decided that (a) investments under the efficient management of credit risks, improve VRR shall now be reckoned under the limit for FPI liquidity and efficiency in the corporate bond market investments under the General Route; and (b) certain and facilitate issuance of corporate bonds across additional operational flexibilities will be provided to the rating spectrum. An announcement was made FPIs investing under the VRR. Necessary directions in the Union Budget speech delivered on February will be separately issued. RBI Bulletin February 2026 13STATEMENT ON DEVELOPMENTAL AND Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies REGULATORY POLICIES V. Capacity Building a sector-wide capacity-building and certification framework. The capacity building of the sector would 16. Mission Saksham – Capacity Building for the be implemented through a large number of physical UCB Sector training programmes as well as a scalable learning Primary (Urban) Co-operative Banks (UCBs) are platform, to cover about 1.40 lakh participants, across vital institutions for promoting financial inclusion all functions. The Reserve Bank shall endeavour to and serving the unbanked. Securing their next phase conduct these training programmes at locations of growth would depend on developing stronger skills close to participating UCBs, with content delivery and competencies, along with technical capabilities in regional languages to the extent feasible. The and operational resilience in them. To serve this Mission will be pursued in partnership with the objective, the Reserve Bank will soon be launching Umbrella Organisation of UCBs and National / State Mission SAKSHAM (Sahakari Bank Kshamta Nirman)- Federations. 14 RBI Bulletin February 2026SPEECHES Values in Action: The Making of a Strong Institution Shri Swaminathan J.Values in Action: The Making of a Strong Institution SPEECH Values in Action: The Making Customer centricity is mainly about doing the basics right of a Strong Institution* Policies are made at the highest levels. But, in a Shri Swaminathan J. branch, you learn quickly that policies do not meet customers-people do. Good evening. Customer centricity is often spoken about in big The Chairman and members of the Board of Axis terms, but it is usually the basics that matter most. Bank; the MD and CEO and the senior leadership Clarity in communication. Accuracy in execution. team of the Axis Bank family, the Champions Fairness in dealing. Predictability in service. A being recognised today, and colleagues, ladies and respectful tone and timely resolution. gentlemen. The best customer service is often quiet and Thank you for the warm invitation. It is a consistent. Not the occasional grand gesture, but a pleasure to be here at Axis House this evening, and habit of being clear, careful, and responsive. to be part of an occasion that is clearly special for the Ethics as a working discipline institution and its people. Ethics in banking is sometimes treated as a soft Banks routinely honour top performers. But theme. It is not. It is the discipline that protects today’s occasion is different. It honours the people customers, employees, and the institution itself. who shape the character of an institution through their actions. Every large organisation faces moments of temptation: the temptation to cut corners, to Being recognised as a Champion today’s is not postpone a difficult disclosure, to take a convenient just about what you achieved, but how you achieved interpretation, or to treat a complaint as an it. It sends a clear signal across the organisation, that inconvenience. ends count; but means matter. Ethics is what stops small compromises from Why organisational culture matters becoming large problems. It is not about being In my experience, what helps institutions perfect. It is about how you handle grey areas, and meet rising expectations–year after year–is not how fairly and quickly you correct a mistake. only strategy; it is culture. That brings me to The same mindset supports regulatory discipline the theme of five values behind today’s awards– as well. Regulatory discipline should never be seen customer centricity, ethics, teamwork, transparency, as a box-ticking exercise. It is part of institutional and ownership–these are not abstract concepts. They reliability and long-term credibility. are practical guides for daily behaviour. I want to share a few thoughts, briefly on each of these five The importance of Teamwork values. Modern banking risks do not sit neatly within * Speech by Shri Swaminathan J, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank one department, they cut across departmental of India, on Friday, January 30, 2026, at the Axis Champions Awards, Mumbai. boundaries. RBI Bulletin February 2026 15SPEECH Values in Action: The Making of a Strong Institution Institutions respond best when information This is precisely why Champions matter. moves across early and teams coordinate without Champions do not only deliver results; they set ego. Teamwork is therefore a control mechanism. It standards that others copy. People observe what reduces blind spots and improves response time. the organisation celebrates. When an institution celebrates ownership, ethics, and transparency, it Transparency sends a clear message about what success means Transparency means customers are given clear here. information and are not surprised later. It means Closing message decisions are recorded in a way that can be explained. To the awardees: congratulations once again. In today’s world, digital journeys should be You have earned this recognition. But recognition designed so customers are clear about what they also brings responsibility. Keep your standards high are doing, what they are authorising, and what at all times. they are not. Terms, charges, and consent should be unambiguous. Alerts should be timely and To everyone across the Axis family: while today meaningful. And when something does go wrong, Bank recognises 100 Champions, the strength of customers should know quickly what steps to this institution rests on the collective conduct take, and the response should be predictable and of thousands more. Not everyone will receive an supportive. award on stage, but every role contributes to the organisation’s resilience and reputation. Transparency is also closely linked to internal culture. When you say, “Dil Se Open”, it means Let me close with a simple thought. Institutions you are internally open as well. In the healthiest endure not because they avoid all mistakes, but of organisations, people are comfortable raising because they respond to challenges with integrity, concerns, flagging errors–because the organisation humility, and responsibility. In the long run, it is values such early warning signals. Transparency is values, not just strategies, that determine credibility not only about outward communication; it is also and longevity. about inward honesty. Once again, congratulations to all the Champions. Ownership is what makes values real I wish the Axis Bank family continued success, may you all be rooted at all times in good governance, Ownership is the difference between “this is strong ethics, and an unwavering commitment to my task” and “this is my responsibility.” Ownership high standards. shows in the willingness to take a difficult call, correct an error, raise a concern, help a colleague or Once again, thank you for this opportunity. I customer, and follow through until closure. wish you a pleasant evening ahead. Jai Hind. 16 RBI Bulletin February 2026ARTICLES State of the Economy Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and ImplicationsState of the Economy ARTICLE State of the Economy* decline observed across manufacturing and services exports. Global economic activity held up despite a pick- Global equity markets rallied during January up in geopolitical uncertainty. Domestic economy and early February, benefitting from stronger-than- remained resilient with quarterly results of listed expected economic data and Q4:2025 earnings private companies showing strengthening of aggregate results, but subsequently corrected due to technology sales growth. Industrial activity remained strong, and sector sell-offs. Emerging markets outperformed services sector sustained its healthy growth. The Union amidst portfolio diversification away from the US Budget 2026-27 reaffirmed Government’s commitment and reallocation of AI-related investments towards to fiscal consolidation without diluting the focus on long- Asia’s semiconductor manufacturers. Bond markets term growth with stepped up allocation towards capital remained subdued under pressures from elevated expenditure. The headline inflation continues to remain sovereign borrowing alongside continued unwinding of central bank bond holdings. Portfolio flows to benign as per the first print under the revised CPI series. emerging markets surged to around US$ 100 billion Foreign portfolio investments and Indian rupee staged - the highest ever for the month of January - with a comeback with investor sentiments turning around strong inflows into both equity and debt segments. following the India-EU free trade agreement and the Global FDI flows increased in 2025, led by inflows interim India-US trade deal. to developed economies through investments in Introduction data centres and semiconductors, while flows to Global uncertainty continued to decline from its developing economies moderated. peak in September 2025, though it remained above Global commodity prices displayed divergent normal. Geopolitical uncertainty, however, picked- trends across sectors during January and February up in January, contributing to elevated financial so far. The World Bank Commodity Price Index markets volatility. surged to a 10-month high in January, driven by a spike in metal and energy prices. From a record high, Despite the headwinds, global economic activity gold and silver prices corrected sharply towards remained resilient with high frequency indicators the end of January as geopolitical tensions eased signalling some improvement in January. The pace and the revised margin requirements triggered gold of expansion, however, remained depressed with liquidation to raise cash. Crude oil prices firmed up low levels of business optimism in most major on concerns of supply chain disruptions in the wake economies. New export orders continued to contract of persistent tensions between the US and Iran. amidst softer external demand, with broad-based Inflation moderated across major advanced * This article has been prepared by Rekha Misra, Rajib Das, Asish Thomas George, Shashi Kant, Rajni Dahiya, Biswajeet Mohanty, Oorja Yadav, economies (AEs) in January, while exhibiting Amin Ashraf, Bajrangi Lal Gupta, Bhagyashree Chattopadhyay, Nilava Das, divergent movements across major emerging market Harshita Yadav, Ettem Abhignu Yadav, Prashant Kumar, Rishabh Kumar, Siddharth Chapoliya, Sritama Ray, Shivam, Archana Dilip, Manish Kumar and developing economies (EMDEs). Most central Tripathi, Snigdha Yogindran, Shreya Gupta, Monica, Samridhi, Kamal Gupta, Pallak Goyal and Saurabh Sharma. The guidance and comments banks maintained status quo in January-February provided by Dr. Poonam Gupta, Deputy Governor, are gratefully amidst continuing upside risks to inflation and acknowledged. Peer review by Thangzason Sonna, Pawan Gopalakrishnan and Dhanya V is also acknowledged. Views expressed in this article are lingering geopolitical uncertainties. Only Australia those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India. raised its policy rate amidst elevated service costs RBI Bulletin February 2026 17ARTICLE State of the Economy and a tight labour market, while Russia reduced its January. However, adequate liquidity was restored rate to address domestic growth concerns. in February by way of accelerated government spending and RBI’s liquidity measures. Reflecting Domestic economic activity remained resilient liquidity conditions, the weighted average call rate in January, driven by strong demand conditions. transitioned from above the policy repo rate to Quarterly results of listed private companies show below it in February. Growth in bank deposit and strengthening aggregate sales growth. Rabi sowing credit continued to remain robust with the growth concluded with higher acreages under all major in credit outpacing that of deposits. During 2025-26 crops. Industrial activity remained strong, and (up to January 31, 2026), the total flow of financial services sector sustained its healthy growth. resources to the commercial sector rose supported by The Union Budget 2026–27 balanced growth credit from both bank and non-bank sources. imperatives with fiscal prudence. By adhering to a Indian equity market remained subdued credible path of fiscal consolidation, maintaining a in January 2026 amidst tariff uncertainties and strong thrust on capital expenditure, and prioritising renewed geopolitical uncertainty. It received a boost infrastructure, innovation, and human capital through the India-EU trade deal towards the end of development, the Government has reinforced the the month. It rebounded in early February, buoyed foundations for long-term growth. The containment by the announcement of the India-US interim trade of revenue expenditure and sustained focus on growth-enhancing investment underscore the deal and return of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). continued commitment to quality spending. The rupee also bounced back as net FPI flows turned positive. The National Statistics Office (NSO) released the CPI inflation for January 2026, with an updated Set against this, the rest of the article is base (2024=100) on February 12, 2026. In the first structured into four sections. Section II covers inflation print under the revised series, the headline the rapidly evolving developments in the global CPI inflation stood at 2.8 per cent in January with economy. Section III provides an assessment of food and core inflation at 2.1 per cent and 3.4 per domestic macroeconomic conditions. Section IV cent, respectively. After excluding precious metals, encapsulates financial conditions in India, while core inflation dropped to a low of 1.9 per cent. Section V presents the concluding observations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its II. Global Setting bi-monthly review of February 2026, unanimously Global uncertainty, though remaining elevated, decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at declined for the fourth consecutive month in January, 5.25 per cent. The MPC also decided to continue alongside a moderation in policy uncertainty. The with the neutral stance. The decisions were guided geopolitical risk index, however, surged amidst by the resilience of growth momentum and a benign escalating tensions in Venezuela, the Middle East, the outlook for inflation. Russia–Ukraine conflict, and the row over Greenland. Financial conditions showed moderate tightness Rising geopolitical tensions were also a key factor, during the second half of January. Average yields on alongside concerns about AI-related disruptions to the treasury bills, commercial papers (CPs), and interest software industry, for the pick-up in global financial rate on certificate of deposits (CDs) increased in market volatility (Charts II.1a and II.1b). 18 RBI Bulletin February 2026State of the Economy ARTICLE Chart II.1: Global Uncertainty Declined, Market Volatility Increased a. Uncertainty Indices b. Volatility Indices Index (Jan 2024=100) Index (Jan 2025=100) 800 130 120 111 600 110 447 100 400 90 306 80 200 70 0 60 World Uncertainty Index World Policy Uncertainty Index Geopolitical Risk Index (RHS) Sources: Chicago Board Options Exchange; Dario Caldara and Matteo Lacoviello; Bloomberg; and World Uncertainty Index (WUI) database. The global composite PMI improved in January at a relatively modest pace. New export orders from a six-month low in the preceding month. New remained in contraction across major AEs, barring export orders, however, remained in contraction, the UK, Japan and Australia. Among major EMDEs, driven by a broad-based decline in export orders in export orders expanded in India and China, while both manufacturing and services (Table II.1). they remained unchanged in Russia (Charts II.2a and II.2b). Business activity, as reflected in PMI indices, grew across major AEs, except France and Canada. Global commodity prices in January were Among major EMDEs, business activity expansion characterised by divergent price movements across was led by India, with China and Russia expanding sectors. The World Bank commodity price index Table II.1: Global Composite PMI Improved, Export Orders Remained in Contraction Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 PMI Composite 51.8 51.5 52.1 50.8 51.2 51.7 52.5 52.9 52.5 53.0 52.7 52.0 52.5 PMI Manufacturing 50.1 50.6 50.3 49.8 49.5 50.4 49.7 50.9 50.7 50.9 50.5 50.4 50.9 PMI Services 52.2 51.5 52.7 50.8 52 51.8 53.5 53.3 52.9 53.5 53.2 52.4 52.7 PMI Export Orders 49.6 49.7 50.1 47.5 48.0 49.1 48.5 48.9 49.7 48.6 50.0 49.2 49.7 PMI Export Orders: 49.4 49.6 50.1 47.3 48.0 49.2 48.2 48.7 49.5 48.3 49.9 49.1 49.9 Manufacturing PMI Export Orders: 50.2 50.2 50.1 48.2 47.9 48.7 49.4 49.3 50.2 49.4 50.2 49.6 49.0 Services 50 <<<<<<Contraction----------------------------------------------------Expansion>>>>>> Notes: 1. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a diffusion index, captures the change in each variable compared to the prior month, noting whether each has risen/improved, fallen/deteriorated or remained unchanged. A PMI value >50 denote expansion; <50 denote contraction; and =50 denote ‘no change’. 2. Heat map is applied on data from April 2023 onwards. The map is colour coded–red denotes the lowest value, yellow denotes 50 (or the no change value), and green denotes the highest value in each of the PMI series. Source: S&P Global. RBI Bulletin February 2026 19 42-naJ 42-raM 42-yaM 42-luJ 42-peS 42-voN 52-naJ 52-raM 52-yaM 52-luJ 52-peS 52-voN 62-naJ 340 310 280 250 220 190 160 130 100 70 US VIX Emerging Markets VIX EURO STOXX VIX 52-naJ-5 52-beF-8 52-raM-41 52-rpA-71 52-yaM-12 52-nuJ-42 52-luJ-82 52-guA-13 52-tcO-4 52-voN-7 52-ceD-11 62-naJ-41 62-beF-71ARTICLE State of the Economy surged to a 10-month high in January, driven by a by February, largely driven by sharp movements spike in metal and energy prices. In contrast, the in gold and silver prices. Gold prices rose sharply Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index in January on safe-haven demand driven by rising declined in January for the fifth consecutive month, geopolitical tensions, before correcting towards dragged down by lower dairy, meat, and sugar prices the end of the month and into early February on (Chart II.3a). The Bloomberg Commodity Index, easing of tensions, profit-booking and higher margin after witnessing a surge in mid-January, corrected requirements. Thereafter, prices regained some Chart II.3: Commodity and Food Prices a. Monthly Indicators b. Daily Indicators Index (Jan 2024=100) Index (Jan 2025=100) 115 110 105 100 95 90 Gold Bloomberg Commodity Index (RHS) Brent Crude Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization; Bloomberg; and World Bank Pink Sheet. 20 RBI Bulletin February 2026 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 195 125 180 120 165 115 150 135 110 120 105 105 100 90 75 95 Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index World Bank Commodity Price Index 52-naJ-5 52-beF-8 52-raM-41 52-rpA-71 52-yaM-12 52-nuJ-42 52-luJ-82 52-guA-13 52-tcO-4 52-voN-7 52-ceD-11 62-naJ-41 62-beF-71 Chart II.2: Purchasing Managers’ Index: Comparison across Jurisdictions a. S&P Global Composite PMI b. PMI Export Orders (Index) (Index) 60 56 52 48 44 Dec-25 Jan-26 Dec-25 Jan-26 Note: A level of 50 indicates no change in activity, while a reading above 50 signals expansion and below 50 suggests contraction. Source: S&P Global. aidnI eropagniS ailartsuA KU napaJ SU niapS labolG aissuR ynamreG anihC ylatI enozoruE lizarB ecnarF adanaC 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 aidnI ailartsuA napaJ KU anihC aissuR ynamreG labolG ylatI enozoruE SU niapS ecnarF adanaCState of the Economy ARTICLE strength on renewed risk aversion. Crude oil prices Global equity markets rallied during January- also firmed up in January and early February on February on the back of better-than-expected elevated geopolitical tensions (Chart II.3b). economic activity data and Q4: 2025 earnings results, before retreating amidst technology sector sell-offs. Inflation moderated across major AEs in January, In Japan, markets continued their bull run, with while exhibiting divergent movements across major sentiments supported by prospects of fiscal stimulus EMDEs. In the Euro area, headline inflation eased due measures following the decisive mandate in the to lower energy costs. In the US, inflation softened February snap elections. European equity indices amidst easing shelter and energy prices, with core gained amidst investor portfolio diversification away inflation declining to its lowest level in five years. In from the US assets. US markets underperformed December 2025, Japan’s inflation recorded a sharp relative to other markets amidst persistent domestic decline, largely due to a fall in electricity and energy policy uncertainties and technology sector sell-offs. prices, while inflation in the UK picked up, driven by Chinese stocks witnessed selling pressures on weak higher services and food prices (Chart II.4a). Among manufacturing activity and growing concerns of major EMDEs, inflation in China moderated, after taxation on internet firms (Chart II.5a). three consecutive months of increase and moved closer to the deflationary zone, mainly on account of Within the technology segment of global equity lower food prices. Core inflation also eased in China markets, performance diverged between leading after remaining broadly stable in the preceding three artificial intelligence (AI) firms and other software- months. Inflation in South Africa and Brazil edged up as-a-service (SaaS) firms. The S&P 500 traditional due to rising food prices. In Russia, inflation picked Software and Services Index declined sharply relative up again after nine months of decline, following to the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index in February, the increase in value added tax by the government amidst increased competition from generative AI- (Chart II.4b). based products (Chart II.6). Chart II.4: Headline Inflation a. Select AEs b. Select EMDEs (Per cent) (Per cent) 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 Brazil Russia China US (CPI) UK Euro area Japan South Africa India Note: US CPI data is not available for October 2025 due to the US Government shutdown. Sources: Bloomberg; and OECD. RBI Bulletin February 2026 21 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 11 9 7 6.0 5 4.4 3.6 3 2.8 1 0.2 -1 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJARTICLE State of the Economy Global bond indices movements were shaped by alongside continued unwinding of central bank bond mounting concerns about elevated public spending holdings. The US Treasury yields hardened in January with stronger-than-expected jobs data dampening Chart II.6: Steeper Fall in Software and Services Stocks vis-à-vis Generative AI Firms expectations of near-term interest rate cuts by the Index (October 31, 2025=100) US Federal Reserve. However, yields softened in 105 February, reflecting safe-haven demand following a 100 sell-off in equity markets and softer inflation outturn 95 in January. The Japanese yield curve also steepened 90 sharply in January on fiscal concerns but remained 85 steady thereafter following a softer Q4 GDP print. 80 The JP Morgan emerging market bond yield spread 75 narrowed, reflecting an improved economic outlook 70 for emerging markets (Chart II.5b). The US dollar held relatively firm till mid of January, before it faced severe downward pressures S&P Software and Services Industry Index Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Price Return Index over the escalation of geopolitical tensions combined Source: Bloomberg. with investor concerns before the FOMC meeting and 22 RBI Bulletin February 2026 52-voN-1 52-voN-7 52-voN-31 52-voN-91 52-voN-52 52-ceD-1 52-ceD-7 52-ceD-31 52-ceD-91 52-ceD-52 52-ceD-13 62-naJ-6 62-naJ-21 62-naJ-81 62-naJ-42 62-naJ-03 62-beF-5 62-beF-11 62-beF-71 Chart II.5: Global Financial Markets a. Equity Indices: Select Economies b. Government Bond Yields Index (April 07, 2025=100) (Per cent, left scale; Index, right scale) S&P 500 SSE Composite Index Nikkei 225 STOXX 600 Note: Equity markets are represented by S&P 500 for US, SSE Composite Index for US Govt Bonds J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Spread (RHS) China, Nikkei 225 for Japan, and STOXX 600 for Europe. Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg. c. Currency Indices d. Portfolio Flows to EMEs (Index) (US$ billion) 98.8 100 27.4 75 50 71.4 25 0 -25 -50 MSCI EME currency index Dollar index (RHS) Debt Equity Total Source: Bloomberg. Source: Institute of International Finance. 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 195 175 155 135 115 95 52-rpA-4 52-yaM-3 52-nuJ-1 52-nuJ-03 52-luJ-92 52-guA-72 52-peS-52 52-tcO-42 52-voN-22 52-ceD-12 62-naJ-91 62-beF-71 4.9 360 4.7 330 4.5 4.1 300 4.3 270 4.1 240 222.0 3.9 210 52-naJ-50 52-beF-80 52-raM-41 52-rpA-71 52-yaM-12 52-nuJ-42 52-luJ-82 52-guA-13 52-tcO-40 52-voN-70 52-ceD-11 62-naJ-41 62-beF-71 1871.7 1,880 110 1,860 108 1,840 106 1,820 1,800 104 1,780 102 1,760 97.2 100 1,740 1,720 98 1,700 96 52-naJ-50 52-beF-80 52-raM-41 52-rpA-71 52-yaM-12 52-nuJ-42 52-luJ-82 52-guA-13 52-tcO-40 52-voN-70 52-ceD-11 62-naJ-41 62-beF-71State of the Economy ARTICLE debasement fears. It recovered partly towards end- Chart II.7: FDI Inflows Surged in Developed January and early February on the announcement Economies, Moderated in Developing Economies in 2025 of new Federal Reserve Chair (Chart II.5c). Portfolio (US$ billion) flows to emerging markets rose to a five-year high, 2000 supported by an improved outlook for Asia and 1606 investor diversification away from the US assets 1600 (Chart II.5d). 703 1200 899 877 Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows 698 930 865 894 800 surged in 2025, led by higher investments in data 641 centres and advanced chips, reflecting rising demand 400 955 777 728 for AI infrastructure and digital networks. While FDI 596 460 590 509 228 0 to developed economies recorded a sharp increase, 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025* developing economies witnessed a moderation in Developed Economies Total Flows flows (Chart II.7). Developing Economies *: Data for complete year 2025 is estimated based on first three quarters. In January, most systemic central banks Source: UNCTAD. maintained a status quo on policy rates. Among AEs, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Africa also held the US, Japan, Canada, Sweden and South Korea benchmark interest rates steady. In February so far, kept their policy rates unchanged amidst persistent the UK, the Euro area, Mexico and New Zealand kept upside risks to inflation and lingering geopolitical their rates unchanged. In contrast, Australia raised uncertainties. In the case of EMDEs, Brazil, China, its policy rate, while Russia reduced it (Chart II.8). Chart II.8: Most Systemic Central Banks Kept Policy Rates Unchanged in January Type Countries Rate change < -0.75 -0.75 to -0.50 -0.50 to -0.25 -0.25 to <0 0 (No change) >0 to 0.25 0.25 to 0.50 0.50 to 0.75 > 0.75 Colour Note: White-coloured blocks indicate an off-policy month. Source: Bloomberg. RBI Bulletin February 2026 23 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 6202.20.71 Australia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 Canada 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Euro area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Japan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New Zealand 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 Advanced Economies South Korea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sweden 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Switzerland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 United Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 United States 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Brazil 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 China 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 India 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Indonesia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Malaysia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Emerging Market Economies Mexico 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Philippines 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Russia 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -0.5 Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Thailand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0ARTICLE State of the Economy III. Domestic Developments by the resilience of growth momentum and a benign outlook for inflation. Economic activity continued to be resilient in January, underpinned by upbeat demand conditions. Aggregate Demand Quarterly results of listed private companies show Economic activity continued to be resilient in strengthening aggregate sales growth. Industrial January, as evidenced by high-frequency indicators activity remained strong, and services sector of energy consumption, digital payments, trade and sustained its healthy growth. The Union Budget 2026- logistics. E-way bills continued to exhibit double- 27 reaffirmed Government’s commitment to fiscal digit growth supported by GST rate rationalisation. consolidation without diluting the focus on long-term Electricity demand sustained its robust growth, growth with stepped up allocation towards capital primarily due to higher demand on account of the expenditure. The Union Government also accepted cold wave conditions across northern and eastern most of the recommendations of the 16th Finance regions of the country, as well as from sustained Commission, thereby opting for a new formula industrial activity. GST revenue growth held steady. for horizontal devolution of funds recognising the Petroleum consumption growth remained resilient, contribution of states to India’s growth. notwithstanding the deceleration. Digital payments The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its registered steady growth in both transaction value bi-monthly review of February 2026, unanimously and volume. Toll collections in January continued decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at with the declining trend, observed post the 5.25 per cent. The MPC also decided to continue introduction of the FASTag Annual Pass scheme in with the neutral stance. The decisions were guided August 2025 (Table III.1).1 Table III.1: Overall Economic Activity remained Resilient Indicator Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 GST E-Way Bills 23.1 14.7 20.2 23.4 18.9 19.3 25.8 22.4 21.0 8.2 27.6 23.5 15.8 GST Revenue 12.3 9.1 9.9 12.6 16.4 6.2 7.5 6.5 9.1 4.6 3.6 6.1 6.2 Toll Collection 14.8 18.7 11.9 16.6 16.4 15.5 14.8 16.1 13.8 4.6 2.9 0.4 -1.8 Electricity Demand 1.3 2.4 5.7 2.8 -4.8 -2.3 2.6 3.8 3.5 -5.8 -0.6 6.5 4.5 Petroleum Consumption 3.0 -5.2 -3.1 0.2 1.1 0.5 -4.4 4.8 7.0 -1.5 2.8 5.3 2.9 Of Which 6.7 5.0 5.7 5.0 9.2 6.8 5.9 5.5 8.0 7.4 2.6 7.1 5.6 Petrol Diesel 4.2 -1.3 0.9 4.2 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.2 6.5 -0.3 4.7 5.0 3.1 Aviation Turbine Fuel 9.4 4.2 5.7 3.9 4.4 3.3 -2.3 -2.9 -0.8 2.1 5.4 0.3 4.7 Digital Payments - Volume 33.0 26.7 30.8 30.0 29.2 28.3 30.9 31.1 28.1 21.5 30.2 26.8 22.3 Digital Payments - Value 18.6 9.5 17.3 18.4 12.6 17.4 16.6 5.3 13.4 8.8 14.7 15.2 11.5 <<Contraction ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Expansion>> Notes: 1. The y-o-y growth (in per cent) has been calculated for all indicators. 2. The heatmap is applied on data from April 2023 to the latest month for which data is available. Digital Payments data for January 2026 are provisional. 3. The heatmap translates the data range for each indicator into a colour gradient scheme with red denoting the lowest values and green corresponding to the highest values of the respective data series. 4. The data on toll collections for January 2026 growth rate is calculated by aggregating daily data. Sources: Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN); RBI; Central Electricity Authority (CEA); National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI); and Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India (GoI). 1 The annual pass allowed users to make up to 200 trips or travel for a year at a fixed fee, reducing per-trip toll revenue across plazas. 24 RBI Bulletin February 2026State of the Economy ARTICLE Overall demand conditions remained upbeat in labour force participation rate and worker population January. Rural demand strengthened further with ratio declined marginally, reflecting seasonal factors retail sales of two-wheelers and tractors witnessing a such as winter conditions and post-harvest slack.3 pick-up in growth, supported by post-GST momentum The PMI employment for manufacturing registered and healthy rural cash flows from the kharif harvest an uptick in January, while PMI employment for and wedding seasons. Retail passenger vehicle sales services entered the expansionary zone. The Naukri continued to expand in January, albeit at a slower JobSpeak Index showed deceleration in fresh hiring pace. The sales slowdown reflects normalisation of despite steady hiring in sectors such as BPO/ITES, markets following a period of high demand triggered hospitality and real estate. Meanwhile, the demand by GST rate rationalisation. Domestic air passenger for work under the Mahatma Gandhi National traffic recovered after the slump in December caused Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) by the disruption in flight schedules (Table III.2). continued to decline for the seventh-consecutive month, reflecting an improvement in rural labour The all-India unemployment rate declined to 4.8 market conditions (Table III.3). per cent in Q3:2025-26 from 5.2 per cent in Q2, with reductions observed across rural and urban areas.2 During April-December 2025, all the key deficit Further, the labour force participation rate and the indicators of the Centre, as per cent of revised worker population ratio recorded an uptick in rural estimates (RE), were lower than the same period areas while urban areas witnessed a slight slowdown. last year (Chart III.1a).4 The lower fiscal deficit was The all-India unemployment rate, however, on account of higher non-debt capital receipts and marginally increased in January from December deceleration in revenue expenditure.5 In adherence levels, with both rural and urban rates edging up. The to fiscal consolidation,6 the Union government has Table III.2: High Frequency Indicators - Upbeat Demand Conditions Indicator Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Urban Domestic air passenger traffic 14.1 12.1 9.9 9.7 2.6 3.7 -2.5 -0.5 -2.5 3.5 7.0 -4.9 2.9 demand Retail passenger vehicle sales 15.5 -10.3 6.3 1.6 -3.1 2.5 -0.8 0.9 5.8 10.7 19.7 26.6 7.2 Retail automobile Sales 6.6 -7.2 -0.7 2.9 5.4 4.8 -4.3 2.8 5.2 40.5 2.1 14.6 17.6 Rural Retail tractor sales 5.2 -14.5 -5.7 7.6 2.8 8.7 11.0 30.1 3.6 14.2 56.5 15.8 22.9 demand Retail two-wheeler sales 4.2 -6.3 -1.8 2.3 7.3 4.7 -6.5 2.2 6.5 51.8 -3.1 9.5 21.4 <<Contraction ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Expansion>> Notes: 1. The y-o-y growth (in per cent) has been calculated for all indicators. 2. The heatmap is applied on data from April 2023 to the latest month for which data is available. 3. The heatmap translates the data range for each indicator into a colour gradient scheme with red denoting the lowest values and green corre- sponding to the highest values of the respective data series. 4. The data on domestic air passenger traffic for January 2026 growth rate is calculated by aggregating daily data. 5. Data for retail automobile sales consists of sales of two wheelers, three wheelers, passenger vehicles, tractors, and commercial vehicles. Sources: Airports Authority of India; Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA); and Ministry of Rural Development, GoI. 2 https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/publications_reports/publications_reports1770719506668_061eb34b-ec61-4890-9e61-73cc717b4d0b_Quarterly_ Bulletin_PLFS_OCT-DEC_2025.pdf 3 https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/latestReleases/latest_release_1771238931793_de83f41f-e1c3-4581-a99b-3432ee80881c_Monthly_Press_note_ January_2026.pdf 4 As per the latest data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA). 5 During April-December 2025, the non-debt capital receipts and revenue expenditure were at 71.9 per cent and 67.0 per cent of 2025-26 (RE), respectively, as compared to 46.3 per cent and 68.9 per cent of 2024-25 (RE), respectively, in the same period last year. 6 As announced in Union Budget 2021-22. RBI Bulletin February 2026 25ARTICLE State of the Economy Table III.3: High Frequency Indicators for Employment Indicator Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Unemployment rate (PLFS: All-India) 5.1 5.6 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.8 5.0 Unemployment rate (PLFS: Rural) 4.5 5.1 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 Unemployment rate (PLFS: Urban) 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.2 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.5 6.7 7.0 Naukri JobSpeak Index 3.9 4.0 -1.5 8.9 0.3 10.5 6.8 3.4 10.1 -9.3 23.5 13.2 3.4 PMI Employment: Manufacturing 54.8 54.5 53.4 54.2 54.9 55.1 53.3 53.1 52.1 52.4 50.9 50.5 51.1 PMI Employment: Services 56.3 56.2 52.5 53.9 57.1 55.1 51.4 52.2 51.9 51.4 51.6 49.8 50.8 MGNREGA: Work Demand 14.4 2.8 2.2 -6.5 4.4 4.4 -12.3 -26.2 -27.1 -35.1 -32.0 -28.9 -25.7 <<Contraction ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Expansion>> Notes: 1. All PLFS indicators are in the current weekly status and for people aged 15 years and above. 2. The y-o-y growth (in per cent) has been calculated for the Naukri index. 3. The heatmap is applied to data from April 2023 to January 2026. 4. The heatmap translates the data range for each indicator into a colour gradient scheme with red denoting the lowest values and green corresponding to the highest values of the respective data series. 5. All PMI values are reported in index form. A PMI value >50 denotes expansion, <50 denotes contraction and =50 denotes ‘no change’. In the PMI heatmaps, red denotes the lowest value, yellow denotes 50 (or the no change value), and green denotes the highest value in each of the PMI series. 6. MGNREGA is encoded in inverse scale- lowest is marked in green, highest is marked in red. Sources: Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI), GoI; Info Edge; and S&P Global. retained its gross fiscal deficit (GFD) for 2025-26 growth-enhancing capital expenditure. The GFD (RE) at 4.4 per cent of GDP, the same as the budget target for 2026-27(BE) stands at 4.3 per cent of GDP, estimates for the year. with the budgeted consolidation primarily envisaged The Union Budget 2026-27 reaffirmed the focus through rationalisation of revenue expenditure and on fiscal prudence while maintaining the thrust on retention of capital expenditure at the same levels.7 Chart III.1: Government Deficit Indicators (April-December) a. Centre b. States (Actuals as per cent of revised estimates) (Actuals as per cent of budget estimates) 70 160 145.1 60 58.2 54.9 140 50 123.9 42.0 120 40 30 21.6 24.5 100 20 80 10 60 56.7 58.0 52.1 48.1 0 40 -10 -20 20 -19.4 -30 0 Revenue Gross fiscal Primary Revenue Gross fiscal Primary deficit deficit deficit deficit deficit deficit 2024-25 2025-26 2024-25 2025-26 Note: Data pertains to 24 States/UTs. Sources: Controller General of Accounts; Comptroller and Auditor General of India; and Union Budget Documents. 7 The revenue expenditure to capital outlay (RECO) ratio - a summary indicator of the quality of expenditure of the Union government – is budgeted to remain steady in 2026-27. 26 RBI Bulletin February 2026State of the Economy ARTICLE Net tax revenue (as per cent of GDP) of the Centre is while capital expenditure recorded a turnaround budgeted slightly lower from last year. Tax reforms from last year’s contraction.11 such as GST rate rationalisation and simplification of The Government has accepted most of the income tax rules under the new Income Tax Act, 2025 recommendations of the 16th Finance Commission are expected to boost collections over the medium Report (Chairman: Dr. Arvind Panagariya) ensuring run.8 The non-debt capital receipts are budgeted to continuity and predictability in Centre-State grow faster than last year reflecting greater asset fiscal relations, and maintained the states’ share monetisation of the central public sector enterprises in the Centre’s divisible pool at 41 per cent. The (CPSEs) facilitated by setting up of a dedicated real Commission recommended a rebalancing in the estate investment trusts (REITs).9 horizontal devolution formula by introducing a new The deficit indicators of states during April- criterion - states’ contribution to GDP with a weight of December 2025, as a proportion of BE for the financial 10 per cent, reflecting India’s growth ambitions and year, were higher than the same period last year the need to recognise states’ role in driving national (Chart III.1b). The higher deficit was primarily led economic performance. Greater emphasis has been by a moderation in revenue receipts relative to their placed on population, and the weights assigned to budget estimates. Within revenue receipts, growth area, income distance and demographic performance in states’ goods and services tax (SGST), the major have been trimmed. While the weight assigned to source of tax revenue, decelerated.10 States’ revenue forest cover has been retained, the earlier tax effort expenditure grew at a slower pace than a year ago, criterion has been removed (Chart III.2). Chart III.2: Horizontal Devolution Criteria for States 50 (Per cent) 45.0 45 42.5 40 35 30 25 20 17.5 15.0 15.0 15 12.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10 5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0 Income Population Area Forest Cover Demogaphic Contribution Tax effort Distance perfromance to GDP 15th Finance Commission 16th Finance Commission Source: Finance Commission Reports. 8 Net tax revenue of the Centre is budgeted at 7.3 per cent of GDP in 2026-27 in comparison to 7.5 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 (RE). 9 Non-debt capital receipts are budgeted to grow at 84.9 per cent in 2026-27, as compared to 53.1 per cent in 2025-26 (RE). 10 This slowdown partly reflected a one-time negative adjustment in April 2025. Although collections began to recover in Q2:2025-26, they subsequently moderated in Q3:2025-26, reflecting the impact of reductions in GST slabs. 11 The Centre’s enhanced allocation of ₹2 lakh crore towards ‘Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment’ announced in the Union Budget 2026- 27 will provide further boost to States’ capex. RBI Bulletin February 2026 27ARTICLE State of the Economy Trade EU concluded a Free Trade Agreement on January 27. While India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on 96.6 During 2025-26 (April-January), the merchandise per cent of EU goods exports to India, around 99 per trade deficit rose higher than the last year, primarily cent of India’s exports will get preferential access driven by petroleum products, electronic goods, and gold.12 India’s merchandise exports and imports have to EU market. The FTA provides comprehensive expanded during 2025-26 so far.13 measures to address non-tariff barriers as well. In January 2026, the merchandise trade deficit As regards the interim trade deal with the widened reflecting sharper rise in imports (Chart US announced on February 7, India has agreed III.3).14 Exports to China continued to be in double to eliminate or reduce tariffs on all US industrial digits,15 while exports to the US contracted. Both gold goods and a wide range of US food and agricultural and silver imports registered three-digit growth in products. The US has agreed to lower the tariff rate to January. 18 per cent from 50 per cent earlier and allowed zero India concluded landmark deals with two of its duty access for Indian agricultural exports such as major trading partners within a month. India and the spices, tea, coffee, fruits, nuts and processed foods. Chart III.3: India’s Merchandise Trade a. Imports Growing Faster than Exports b. Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened (Y-o-y, per cent) (US$ billion) 25 20 19.2 15 10 5 0.6 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Exports Imports Sources: PIB; and DGCI&S. 12 The merchandise trade deficit during 2025-26 (April-January) was at US$ 283.2 billion as against US$ 247.4 billion during 2024-25 (April-January). 13 16 out of 30 major commodities (accounting for 54.9 per cent of exports basket) and 19 out of 30 major commodities (accounting for 50.4 per cent of imports basket) registered expansion in 2025-26 (April-January). 14 The merchandise trade deficit widened to US$ 34.7 billion in January 2026 from US$ 23.4 billion in January 2025. Merchandise exports stood at US$ 36.6 billion in January 2026 [increase of 0.6 per cent (y-o-y)]. Key segments such as engineering goods, petroleum products, meat, dairy and poultry, marine products and iron ore drove the exports, while gems and jewellery, rice, plastic and linoleum, ready-made garments of all textiles, and oil meals dragged the exports down. Exports to 11 of the top 20 major destinations expanded, with exports to the UAE, Netherlands and China growing, while contracting to the US, the UK and Singapore. Merchandise imports stood at US$ 71.2 billion in January 2026 [expansion of 19.2 per cent (y-o-y)]. Gold, silver, electronic goods, machinery and non-ferrous metals contributed positively to the imports, while coal, iron and steel, pulses, chemical material and products, and organic and inorganic chemicals dragged imports during the month. Imports from 14 of the 20 major destinations expanded, with imports from China, the UAE and the US growing, while contracting from Russia, Iraq and South Korea. 15 Exports to China increased by 55.7 per cent (y-o-y) in January 2026. Export growth to China in 2025-26 (April-January) was 38.4 per cent (y-o-y). 28 RBI Bulletin February 2026 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 100 80 71.2 60 40 36.6 20 0 -20 -23.4 -40 -34.7 -60 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ Exports Imports Trade balanceState of the Economy ARTICLE Chart III.4 Net Services Exports Grew (Y-o-y, per cent) 35 30 25 20 15 13.0 10 7.3 5 0 -5 -10 Exports Imports Source: RBI. RBI Bulletin February 2026 29 42-ceD 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 800 114 112 700 661677 110 600 108 500 106 104 400 328334 102 300 100 200 98 140 100 4545 135 6061 9497 99 46 0 92 Notes: 1. Data as on January 30, 2026. 2. Horizontal line denotes 100 per cent normal area coverage (RHS). Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare; and RBI staff calculations. taehW eciR sesluP slaereC esraoC sdeesliO latoT With these agreements in place, the labour-intensive Chart III.5 Robust Rabi Sowing sectors and export-oriented industries in India are (Lakh hectares, left scale; per cent, right scale) expected to receive a major support. Net services exports rose at a faster pace in December, primarily supported by business and software services (Chart III.4).16 Aggregate Supply Agriculture The rabi sowing has concluded with higher acreages under all major crops, supported by conducive soil moisture, sufficient reservoir levels 2024-25 2025-26 Per cent of full season normal area (RHS) and favourable temperature (Chart III.5).17 However, above-normal temperature has been recorded in some key regions in January and the forecast is of Industry and Services a gradual rise in temperature in February and early March, warranting monitoring of its impact on Quarterly results of listed private non-financial standing crops (Chart III.6).18 companies19 for Q3:2025-26 indicate strengthening of Chart III.6: Temperature Conditions in January 2026 (As per cent of long period average) Notes: 1. Data up to January 31, 2026. 2. Actual temperatures have been recorded in Celsius (°C) and compared with respective Long Period Average (LPA). 3. Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep recorded average temperatures as 101 and 99 per cent of their LPAs respectively. Source: IMD; and RBI staff calculations. 16 Net services exports grew by 18.3 per cent (y-o-y) to US$ 22.7 billion in December 2025 from US$ 19.2 billion in December 2024. During April-December 2025, net services exports increased to US$ 156.3 billion from US$ 135.5 billion during April-December 2024. 17 As on January 30, 2026, the area sown under rabi crops has covered 106.1 per cent of the full season normal acreage, which is 2.4 per cent higher than the corresponding period of last year. 18 https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/extendedrangeforecast.php#. (Accessed on February 18, 2026) 19 Based on results of 2,905 listed non-government non-financial (NGNF) companies for Q3:2025-26.ARTICLE State of the Economy Chart III.7: Sales Growth - Listed Private Non-Financial Companies (Per cent, y-o-y) 14 12 11.0 10.4 10 9.5 8 6 4 2 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Manufacturing IT Services (Non-IT) Note: Data are based on results of 2,905 listed non-government non-financial companies in Q3:2025-26 (1,678 manufacturing, 189 IT, and 812 non-IT services). Sources: Capitaline database; and RBI staff calculations. aggregate sales growth.20 Manufacturing companies During Q3:2025-26, revenue growth for listed recorded double-digit sales growth, supported by banking and financial sector companies moderated, stronger performances in the automobile, electrical while net profit growth increased due to a rise in machinery, food products and non-ferrous metal other income category (Chart III.9).22 industries despite contraction in the petroleum On the investment front, total funds raised for industry.21 Sales growth of IT companies improved, capex purposes through different channels during while that of non-IT services remained broadly stable April-December 2025-26 remained higher than in during the quarter (Chart III.7). the comparable period since 2019-20, indicating Operating profit of manufacturing companies sustained investment optimism (Chart III.10). rose during Q3:2025-26 on a y-o-y basis due to Although the total cost of capex projects sanctioned moderation in growth of other expenses. However, by select banks and financial institutions (FIs) operating profit margin moderated on sequential basis. during Q3 was lower than the previous quarter, the Within the services sector, operating profit growth sanctioned amount in Q3 was above the average improved for IT companies, while it moderated for for the post-COVID period,23 underscoring the non-IT services companies. Nonetheless, operating persistence of investment appetite.24 Majority of the profit margin expanded sequentially for both IT and intended investment is concentrated in the power, non-IT companies during the quarter (Chart III.8). chemical and construction industries. Funds raised 20 Aggregate sales growth was at 9.8 per cent (y-o-y) during Q3:2025-26 from 8.0 per cent in the previous quarter. 21 Barring petroleum industry, sales growth for the manufacturing sector stood at 12.7 per cent. 22 Other income includes commission income from non-fund based banking activities, fees, earnings from foreign exchange and derivative transactions, profit and loss (including revaluation) from investments, dividends from subsidiaries and recoveries from accounts previously written off. 23 Quarterly average sanctioned amount during 2021-22 to 2024-25 was ₹72,982 crore. 24 Total cost of projects in Q3:2025-26 was ₹96,554 crore as compared to ₹1,60,828 crore in Q2:2025-26. The Q2 capex figures were exceptionally high due to a few large projects. 30 RBI Bulletin February 2026State of the Economy ARTICLE Chart III.8: Profitability of Listed Private Non-Financial Companies a. Operating Profit Growth b. Operating Profit Margin (Per cent, y-o-y) (Per cent) 15 30 28 26 11.5 10.6 10.8 24 22.6 10 22 20 21.2 7.7 18 6.5 16 5 14 14.0 12 2.7 10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 0 Manufacturing IT Services (Non-IT) 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Q2:2025-26 Q3:2025-26 Manufacturing IT Services (Non-IT) Note: Data are based on results of 2,905 listed non-government non-financial companies in Q3:2025-26 (1,678 manufacturing, 189 IT, and 812 non-IT services). Sources: Capitaline database; and RBI staff calculations. through external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and high, primarily driven by a robust growth across initial public offerings (IPOs) for capex purposes also all three sectors − manufacturing, mining and increased compared to the preceding quarter. electricity. As per the use-based classification, four out of six segments witnessed an uptick in their Monthly Indicators of Industrial Activity growth over the previous month. Infrastructure and In December, growth in industrial activity, as consumer durables were the best performers with measured by the year-on-year change in the Index double digit expansion signalling strengthening of Industrial Production (IIP), jumped to a 26-month domestic demand. While growth in the capital goods Chart III.9: Performance of Listed Banking and Chart III.10: Private Corporates’ Financial Companies Investment Intentions (Per cent, y-o-y) (₹ thousand crore) 500 18 15.6 450 16 400 85.8 14 13.3 350 12.0 12 300 348.9 10 250 8 200 6.5 6 150 100 4 50 2 0 0 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Revenue Expenditure Operating profit Net profit (Apr-Dec) (P) (P) Total Cost of Projects Sanctioned by Banks/FIs Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 ECBs/ IPOs (Only Capex) Note: Based on a sample of 584 companies constituting around 93.4 per cent of Note: Data for 2024-25 and 2025-26 are provisional. the total market capitalisation of listed banking and financial sector companies. Sources: Data on project finance gathered from banks/FIs; and RBI staff Sources: CMIE Prowess; and RBI staff calculations. calculations. RBI Bulletin February 2026 31ARTICLE State of the Economy segments recorded some softening, it continued The Union Budget 2026-27 has laid down a to remain at elevated levels, reflecting investment clear intent to build a climate-ready infrastructure revival. The index of eight core industries posted a providing further impetus to India’s green transition. four-month high growth in December, led by strong For industrial decarbonisation, it has proposed to growth in steel and cement and turnaround in scale up Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage electricity generation. (CCUS) across hard-to-abate industries such as High-frequency indicators of industrial activity power, steel, cement, refineries and chemicals – remained strong in January. The manufacturing supporting the target of reducing their emissions PMI strengthened, supported by improvements in intensity of GDP by 45 per cent from 2005 levels by new orders, output and employment. Automobile 2030. As a major strategic manufacturing push and production recorded robust growth across segments to elevate India’s role in the global semiconductor in January, albeit at a slower pace, reflecting some value chain, India Semiconductor Mission 2.0 has normalisation following the earlier surge in output been launched with a budget outlay of ₹1,000 crore. on account of the GST rate cuts (Table III.4). The budget also extends customs duty exemptions Table III.4: High Frequency Indicators for Industry Remained Strong Indicator Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 IIP-Headline 5.2 2.7 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.5 4.3 4.1 4.6 0.5 7.2 7.8 IIP Manufacturing 5.8 2.8 4.0 3.1 3.2 3.7 6.0 3.8 5.6 2.0 8.5 8.1 IIP Capital Goods 10.2 8.2 3.6 14.0 13.3 3.0 6.8 4.5 5.4 2.1 10.1 8.1 PMI Manufacturing 57.7 56.3 58.1 58.2 57.6 58.4 59.1 59.3 57.7 59.2 56.6 55.0 55.4 PMI Export Order 58.6 56.3 54.9 57.6 56.9 60.6 57.3 56.1 56.5 54.7 54.1 54.0 54.1 PMI Manufacturing: Future Output 65.1 64.9 64.4 64.6 63.1 62.2 57.6 60.5 64.8 62.3 57.1 56.9 56.4 Eight Core Index 5.1 3.4 4.5 1.0 1.2 2.2 3.7 6.5 3.3 -0.1 2.1 3.7 Electricity Generation: Conventional -1.3 2.4 4.8 -1.8 -8.2 -6.1 -0.8 1.0 0.8 -10.6 -5.0 4.3 1.9 Electricity Generation: Renewable 31.9 12.2 25.2 28.0 18.2 28.7 26.4 22.7 16.4 21.4 22.9 18.0 Automobile Production 9.4 2.3 6.5 -1.7 5.2 1.2 10.7 8.1 10.8 -2.8 22.3 37.1 15.0 Passenger vehicle production 3.7 4.5 11.2 10.8 5.4 -1.8 0.1 -4.1 16.1 9.8 22.8 23.1 5.6 Tractor production 23.7 -7.8 18.5 20.5 9.1 9.8 11.5 9.4 23.0 13.0 37.5 57.9 14.6 Two-wheelers production 10.3 1.6 5.6 -4.1 4.7 1.4 12.3 10.0 9.8 -5.6 20.9 39.9 16.1 Three-wheelers production 16.2 6.5 6.0 4.1 16.9 8.6 24.0 15.8 15.9 15.9 55.4 39.6 33.2 Crude steel production 7.4 6.0 8.5 9.3 11.0 12.6 13.8 12.8 13.7 8.9 10.8 5.3 4.1 Finished steel production 6.7 6.7 10.0 6.6 7.0 10.9 13.8 13.8 14.0 7.2 11.8 2.0 3.2 Import of capital goods 15.5 -0.5 8.6 24.5 15.7 3.4 13.3 0.2 12.7 8.6 13.1 13.2 7.2 <<Contraction ------------------------------------------------------------- Expansion>> Notes: 1. The y-o-y growth (in per cent) has been calculated for all indicators (except for PMI). 2. The heatmap translates the data range for each indicator into a colour gradient scheme with red denoting the lowest values and green corresponding to the highest values of the respective data series. 3. The heatmap is applied on data from April 2023 to the latest month for which data is available. 4. All PMI values are reported in index form. A PMI value >50 denotes expansion, <50 denotes contraction and =50 denotes ‘no change’. In the PMI heatmaps, red denotes the lowest value, yellow denotes 50 (or the no change value), and green denotes the highest value in each of the PMI series. Sources: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI); S&P Global; Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Ministry of Power; Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM); Office of Economic Adviser, GoI; Joint Plant Committee; Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics; and Tractor and Mechanisation Association. 32 RBI Bulletin February 2026State of the Economy ARTICLE on imports of goods required for nuclear projects Chart III.11: Strong Growth in Installed until 2035. Solar Power Capacity (Gigawatts, left scale; per cent, y-o-y, right scale) Over the last two years, solar installed capacity 160 50 has recorded strong growth, coinciding with the 135.8 45 140 launch of Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana in 2024, 38.8 40 120 under which rooftop solar deployment has increased 33.5 35 to over 20 lakh systems, benefiting around 26 lakh 100 30 households as of December 2025 (Chart III.11).25 To 80 25 give further fillip to renewable energy, the Union 20 60 Budget 2026-27 provides policy support through 15.8 15 40 customs duty incentives for solar components and 10 battery energy storage systems. 20 5 0 0 Monthly Indicators of Services Activity 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Solar Power Growth Rate (RHS) India’s services sector sustained its healthy Source: Central Electricity Authority. growth in January. Retail commercial vehicle sales sustained double-digit growth, driven by buying. Port cargo traffic also maintained the growth improving freight sentiment and replacement momentum (Table III.5). Table III.5: Services Sustained its Healthy Growth Indicator Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 PMI Services 56.5 59.0 58.5 58.7 58.8 60.4 60.5 62.9 60.9 58.9 59.8 58.0 58.5 International Air Passenger Traffic 11.1 7.7 6.8 13.0 5.0 3.4 5.5 7.7 7.3 9.7 7.5 6.0 6.8 Domestic Air Cargo 6.9 -2.5 4.9 16.6 2.3 2.6 4.8 7.1 2.8 -2.3 20.5 4.3 International Air Cargo 7.1 -6.3 3.3 8.6 6.8 -1.2 4.2 4.5 2.3 -2.3 12.7 12.6 Port Cargo Traffic 7.6 3.6 13.3 7.0 4.3 5.6 4.0 2.5 11.5 11.9 14.5 12.8 7.6 Retail Commercial vehicle sales 8.2 -8.6 2.7 -1.0 -3.7 6.6 0.2 8.6 2.7 21.1 17.0 24.6 15.1 Steel Consumption 9.0 10.9 13.6 6.0 8.1 9.3 7.3 10.0 8.9 2.4 6.0 3.4 Cement Production 14.3 10.7 12.2 6.3 9.7 8.2 11.6 5.4 5.0 5.2 14.6 13.5 <<Contraction ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Expansion>> Notes: 1. The y-o-y growth (in per cent) has been calculated for all indicators (except for PMI). 2. The heatmap translates the data range for each indicator into a colour gradient scheme with red denoting the lowest values and green corresponding to the highest values of the respective data series. 3. The heatmap is applied to data from April 2023 to the latest month for which data is available. 4. The data on international air passenger traffic for December 2025 growth rate is calculated by aggregating daily data. 5. All PMI values are reported in index form. A PMI value >50 denotes expansion, <50 denotes contraction and =50 denotes ‘no change’. In the PMI heatmaps, red denotes the lowest value, yellow denotes 50 (or the no change value), and green denotes the highest value in each of the PMI series. Sources: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA); Indian Ports Association; Airports Authority of India; Joint Plant Committee; Office of Economic Adviser; and S&P Global. 25 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2222476&reg= 3&lang=1 RBI Bulletin February 2026 33ARTICLE State of the Economy Inflation Table III.6: Year-on-year Inflation in January 2026 Based on the New CPI (2024 =100) Series On February 12, 2026, the National Statistics Office (NSO) released the new CPI series with an S. No Divisions Inflation (per cent) updated base (2024=100) along with year-on-year 1 Food and beverages 2.1 (y-o-y) inflation data for January 2026. The updated 2 Pan, tobacco and intoxicants 2.9 series revised the weights based on the Household 3 Clothing and footwear 3.0 Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-24. Apart 4 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 1.5 5 Furnishings, household equipment and routine 1.4 from the revision of item weights, the CPI 2024 household maintenance series incorporates changes in classification to align 6 Health 2.2 with the United Nation Organization’s Classification 7 Transport 0.1 of Individual Consumption According to (COICOP) 8 Information and communication 0.2 2018 framework (Annex Box A). 9 Recreation, sport and culture 2.3 10 Education Services 3.4 Based on the CPI 2024 base year series, headline 11 Restaurants and accommodation services 2.9 inflation26 stood at 2.8 per cent (y-o-y) in January. 12 Personal care, social protection and 19.0 CPI food, fuel and core (CPI excluding food and fuel) miscellaneous goods and services inflation inflation were 2.1 per cent, 0.4 per cent and 13 Core (Excluding Food and Fuel) 3.4 14 Core excluding precious metals 1.9 3.4 per cent, respectively. Excluding precious metals, Source: NSO. core inflation was lower at 1.9 per cent, indicating that underlying price pressures remain relatively per cent to 4.9 per cent, with the majority of states contained (Table III.6). experiencing inflation below 4 per cent (Chart III.12). Core inflation accounted for the bulk of headline High-frequency food price data up to 17th February 2026 suggests some pressure in cereal inflation in January, followed by food and fuel.27 Within food items, the main positive contributions Chart III.12: Spatial Distribution of Inflation: came from fruits and nuts, milk, dairy products and January 2026 eggs, meat and oils and fats; while vegetables and (Y-o-y, per cent) pulses exerted downward pressures. Among non-food items, gold/diamond/platinum jewellery contributed around 31 basis points to headline inflation.28 Inflation in the urban and rural region stood Inflation Number of at 2.8 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively, in Range States/UTs <2 11 January. Across states/UTs, inflation varied from 0.1 2-4 23 4-6 2 26 As per the provisional data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on February 12, 2026. <2 2-4 4-6 27 Core group contributed around 71 per cent to the overall inflation. Notes: 1. Map is for illustrative purposes only. Food inflation contributed around 28.3 per cent, while fuel had a small 2. Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep experienced inflation contribution of around 0.7 per cent. of 4.3 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively. 28 Gold witnessed a y-o-y inflation of 46.8 per cent. Sources: NSO; and RBI staff calculations. 34 RBI Bulletin February 2026State of the Economy ARTICLE Chart III.13: Food Prices Barring Vegetables Registered an Uptick in February a. Cereals b. Pulses (M-o-m, per cent) (M-o-m, per cent) 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Rice Wheat Gram dal Tur/ Arhar dal Moong dal c. Vegetables d. Edible Oils (M-o-m, per cent) (M-o-m, per cent) Potato Onion Tomato Groundnut oil Sunflower oil Mustard oil Sources: Department of Consumer Affairs, GoI; and RBI staff calculations. prices. Within pulses, a broad-based increase is evident across gram, moong and tur/arhar dal. Within edible oils, prices of sunflower oil, mustard oil and groundnut oil also increased. On Table III.7: Petroleum Products Prices the other hand, among major vegetables, potato, Item Unit Domestic Prices Month-over- month (per cent) tomato and onion prices have softened in February Feb-25 Jan-26 Feb-26^ Jan-26 Feb-26^ (Chart III.13). Petrol ₹/litre 101.1 101.2 101.2 0.0 0.0 Retail selling prices of petrol, diesel and LPG Diesel ₹/litre 90.5 90.5 90.5 0.0 0.0 remained unchanged in February (up to 17th) while it Kerosene ₹/litre 46.4 45.1 44.1 -7.4 -2.2 (subsidised) declined for Kerosene (Table III.7). LPG (non- ₹/cylinder 813.3 863.3 863.3 0.0 0.0 In January, both manufacturing and services subsidised) ^: For the period February 1-17, 2026. PMI showed an increase in the rate of expansion Note: Other than kerosene, prices represent the average Indian Oil of input prices. Input cost in manufacturing rose Corporation Limited (IOCL) prices in four major metros (Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai). For kerosene, prices denote the average of the to a four-month high but remained below the long- subsidised prices in Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai. Sources: IOCL; Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC); and RBI staff term average. The rate of expansion in output estimates. RBI Bulletin February 2026 35 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 4.0 3.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 40.0 20.0 0.0 -3.4 -7.2 -20.0 -35.3 -40.0 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.4 -1.0 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF prices moderated for manufacturing firms, while it increased for services firms (Chart III.14).ARTICLE State of the Economy Chart III.14: PMI: Input and Output Prices a. Manufacturing b. Services Index (50=No Change) Index (50=No Change) 60 55 52.6 52.0 50 45 Input Prices Output Prices Input Prices Prices Charged Note: A level of 50 corresponds to no change in activity, and a reading above 50 denotes expansion and vice versa. Source: S&P. IV. Financial Conditions the month and into February. This rise was primarily Overall financial conditions exhibited some induced by the accelerated government spending tightness from the second half of January till February and a series of liquidity-augmenting measures by the so far (up to 17th) driven by relative tightening in the RBI. The Reserve Bank conducted six variable-rate corporate bond market (Chart IV.1). repo (VRR) auctions in the second half of January From a relatively mild surplus in the second half to address the transient liquidity tightness.29 The of January, system liquidity rose towards the end of Reserve Bank also conducted open market operations 36 RBI Bulletin February 2026 42-naJ 42-raM 42-yaM 42-luJ 42-peS 42-voN 52-naJ 52-raM 52-yaM 52-luJ 52-peS 52-voN 62-naJ 60 55 52.1 52.0 50 45 42-naJ 42-raM 42-yaM 42-luJ 42-peS 42-voN 52-naJ 52-raM 52-yaM 52-luJ 52-peS 52-voN 62-naJ Chart IV.1: Tightening in Financial Conditions (Standard deviation from average since 2012) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 Money Government securities Corporate bond Equity Foreign exchange Financial conditions index (standardised) Note: The financial conditions index provides a metric based on its historical average; in this context, a zero value corresponds to a financial system operating at the historical average level of all the financial indicators included in the index. To present the results, standardised index is used. Source: RBI staff calculations. 52-beF-4 52-beF-81 52-raM-4 52-raM-81 52-rpA-1 52-rpA-51 52-rpA-92 52-yaM-31 52-yaM-72 52-nuJ-01 52-nuJ-42 52-luJ-8 52-luJ-22 52-guA-5 52-guA-91 52-peS-2 52-peS-61 52-peS-03 52-tcO-41 52-tcO-82 52-voN-11 52-voN-52 52-ceD-9 52-ceD-32 62-naJ-6 62-naJ-02 62-beF-3 62-beF-71 Tighter conditions Easier conditions 29 During the second half of January, the RBI conducted 4 VRR auctions with maturities ranging from 2 to 8 days. Additionally, two 90-day VRR auctions were conducted to inject longer term liquidity into the system with the option to prepay the amount borrowed.State of the Economy ARTICLE Chart IV.2: Widening Liquidity Surplus (₹ lakh crore) 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3.5 -4.5 Daily standing deposit facility Variable rate reverse repo Marginal standing facility Variable rate repo Net liquidity adjustment facility Total absorption Source: RBI. (OMOs) purchase auctions amounting to ₹1.5 lakh during January, reflecting liquidity pressures arising crore and 3-year USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap auction of from goods and services tax outflows and a rise USD 10 billion.30 in currency in circulation. Liquidity induced by month-end government spending and RBI’s liquidity Bolstered by adequate liquidity, average net augmenting measures guided the WACR below the absorption under the liquidity adjustment facility repo rate in February (Chart IV.3a).33 Overnight (LAF) increased during January 16, 2026 – February rates in the collateralised segments – as measured 17, 2026, from the preceding one-month period by the benchmark secured overnight rupee rate (Chart IV.2)31, with banks’ availment of the standing (SORR) − generally moved in tandem with the deposit facility (SDF) registering a sharp increase. uncollateralised rate. In money markets, yields on Marginal standing facility (MSF) usage remained treasury bills, commercial papers (CPs), and interest broadly stable, suggesting that day-to-day liquidity rate on certificate of deposits (CDs) increased in mismatches were minimal and well-managed.32 January, reflecting a moderation in surplus liquidity, Money Market excess supply due to bunching of redemptions, and The weighted average call rate (WACR) generally typical year-end seasonal pressures (Chart IV.3b).34 hovered in the upper half of the policy corridor As a result, the average risk premium in the money 30 RBI conducted OMO purchase auctions of Government of India securities for an aggregate amount of ₹1.5 lakh crore in three tranches of ₹0.5 lakh crore each on January 22, 2026, January 29, 2026, and February 5, 2026. All auctions saw good demand. USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap Auction of USD 10 billion for a tenor of 3 years held on February 4, 2026 attracted bids roughly two times the notified amount. 31 Overall, average net absorption under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) stood at ₹1.89 lakh crore during January 16, 2026 – February 17, 2026, higher than ₹0.08 lakh crore during the preceding one-month period. 32 Average balances under the standing deposit facility increased to ₹2.88 lakh crore during January 16, 2026–February 17, 2026, from ₹1.29 lakh crore in the preceding one-month period. Borrowings from the marginal standing facility averaged to ₹0.01 lakh crore during this period, declining marginally from an average of ₹0.02 lakh crore in preceding one-month period. 33 On average, the WACR moderated to 5.21 per cent during January 16, 2026–February 17, 2026, from 5.40 per cent in the preceding one-month period. 34 The average yields on 3-month treasury bills increased by 9 bps while the yields on the 3-month commercial papers issued by NBFCs and 3-month certificate of deposit hardened by 79 bps and 81 bps respectively during January 16, 2026 – February 17, 2026, as compared to the period from December 16, 2025 to January 15, 2026. RBI Bulletin February 2026 37 52-beF-4 52-beF-81 52-raM-4 52-raM-81 52-rpA-1 52-rpA-51 52-rpA-92 52-yaM-31 52-yaM-72 52-nuJ-01 52-nuJ-42 52-luJ-8 52-luJ-22 52-guA-5 52-guA-91 52-peS-2 52-peS-61 52-peS-03 52-tcO-41 52-tcO-82 52-voN-11 52-voN-52 52-ceD-9 52-ceD-32 62-naJ-6 62-naJ-02 62-beF-3 62-beF-71ARTICLE State of the Economy market (the spread between the yields on 3-month Government Securities (G-Sec) Market commercial paper and 91-day treasury bill) also In the fixed-income segment, between January witnessed an uptick.35 In February, although system 19 and February 17, government security (G-sec) liquidity conditions have improved, CP and CD rates yields declined across the term structure other than have remained elevated. at the longer end of the curve (Chart IV.4a & b).36,37 Chart IV.4: Hardening in G-sec Yields a. Movement in G-sec yield b. G-sec Yield Curve (Per cent) (Per cent, left scale; basis points, right scale) 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.66 6.4 6.41 6.1 5.91 5.8 5.5 Tenor (years) Change (February 17, 2026 over January 19, 2026) (RHS) 19-Jan-2026 3 year 5 year 10 year 17-Feb-2026 Sources: Bloomberg; and RBI staff calculations. 35 Increased to 195 bps during the period from January 16, 2026 – February 17, 2026, from 125 bps in the preceding one-month period. 36 The benchmark 10-year G-sec bond (6.48 GS 2035) yield marginally increased to 6.66 per cent as on February 17, 2026, from 6.65 per cent as on January 15, 2026. 37 10-year yield rose to 6.77 per cent on February 2, 2026 from 6.70 per cent for the previous day, marking its sharpest intraday increase since late August, following the Budget announcement of an increase in gross market borrowing for 2026–27 to ₹17.20 lakh crore. 38 RBI Bulletin February 2026 52-beF-81 52-raM-81 52-rpA-51 52-yaM-31 52-nuJ-01 52-luJ-80 52-guA-50 52-peS-20 52-peS-03 52-tcO-82 52-voN-52 52-ceD-32 62-naJ-02 62-beF-71 8.0 30 7.67 7.5 20 7.48 7.0 10 6.5 0 6.0 -10 5.5 -20 5.0 -30 1 3 5 7 9 11 31 51 71 91 Chart IV.3: WACR Moved below the Repo Rate; Money Market Spreads Widened a. Policy Corridor and Call Rate b. Money Market Rates (Per cent) (Per cent) 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.23 7.0 7.02 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 5.32 4.5 Repo rate Weighted average call rate Standing deposit facility Marginal standing facility 3-month treasury bill 3-month certificate of deposit Secured overnight rupee rate (SORR) 3-month commercial paper (NBFC) Sources: RBI; and Bloomberg. 52-beF-81 52-raM-81 52-rpA-51 52-yaM-31 52-nuJ-01 52-luJ-8 52-guA-5 52-peS-2 52-peS-03 52-tcO-82 52-voN-52 52-ceD-32 62-naJ-02 62-beF-71 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.08 5.0 4.5 4.0 52-beF-81 52-raM-81 52-rpA-51 52-yaM-31 52-nuJ-01 52-luJ-8 52-guA-5 52-peS-2 52-peS-03 52-tcO-82 52-voN-52 52-ceD-32 62-naJ-02 62-beF-71State of the Economy ARTICLE Table IV.1: Corporate Bonds Yields Hardened Interest Rates Spread (bps) (Per cent) (Over Corresponding Risk-free Rate) Instrument December 16, 2025 – January 16, 2026 – Variation December 16, 2025 – January 16, 2026 – Variation January 14, 2026 February 16, 2026 January 14, 2026 February 16, 2026 1 2 3 (4 = 3-2) 5 6 (7 = 6-5) (i) AAA (1-year) 7.12 7.53 41 151 181 30 (ii) AAA (3-year) 7.20 7.31 11 122 122 0 (iii) AAA (5-year) 7.34 7.50 16 80 91 11 (iv) AA (3-year) 8.18 8.28 10 221 221 0 (v) BBB (3-year) 11.79 11.91 12 581 582 1 Note: Yields and spreads are computed as averages for the respective periods. Source: FIMMDA. Corporate Bond Market During 2025-26 so far (up to January 31, 2026), Corporate bond yields hardened across tenors total flow of financial resources to the commercial and the rating spectrum, with their spreads over sector increased to ₹34.5 lakh crore from ₹25.5 lakh government securities generally widening (Table crore a year ago (Table IV.2a). Non-bank sources IV.1). New corporate bond issuances increased − corporate bond issuances, and foreign direct in December compared with November. On a investment to India − showed a marked increase cumulative basis, total issuances are lower in the during the year so far. As on January 31, 2026 the current financial year so far than in the same period Chart IV.5: Growth in Reserve Money and last year amidst rising corporate bond yields and the Money Supply (M ) Rebounded 3 shift towards bank credit.38 (Y-o-y, per cent) 13 12.0 Money and Credit 12 11.1 11 10.9 During January 2026, reserve money growth 10 9 (adjusted for CRR) increased, with currency in 8 7 circulation expanding at a robust pace since October 6 5 2025.39 Growth in money supply, notwithstanding 4 the decline in mid-January, rose thereafter, driven by higher aggregate deposits and currency with the public (Chart IV.5).40 Reserve money (CRR adjusted) Money supply Currency in circulation Scheduled commercial banks’ (SCBs’) credit and Notes: 1. With the change in the definition of fortnight vide the Banking Laws (Amendment) Act, 2025, data for reserve money and money supply deposit growth continued to be in double digits during pertain to 15th and last day of the month, effective December 15, 2025. the month, with credit growth outpacing deposit 2. Money supply data include the impact of merger of a non-bank with a bank w.e.f. July 14, 2023. growth (Chart IV.6).41 Source: RBI. 38 Issuances increased to ₹0.74 lakh crore in December 2025 from ₹0.59 lakh crore in November 2025. On a cumulative basis (April–December), it stood at ₹6.83 lakh crore in 2025–26, lower than ₹7.25 lakh crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. 39 Reserve money growth (adjusted for the first-round impact of changes in the cash reserve ratio) increased to 10.9 per cent (y-o-y) as on January 31, 2026 from 9.4 per cent (y-o-y) as on December 31, 2025, while growth in currency in circulation increased to 11.1 per cent (y-o-y) from 10.2 per cent (y-o-y) during the same period. Growth in currency in circulation was 7.2 per cent (y-o-y) on October 31, 2025. 40 Money supply growth moderated marginally to 12.0 per cent (y-o-y) as on January 31, 2026, from 12.1 per cent (y-o-y) as on December 31, 2025. 41 SCBs’ credit growth increased marginally to 14.6 per cent (y-o-y) as on January 31,2026 from 14.5 per cent (y-o-y) as on December 31, 2025. SCBs’ deposit growth declined marginally to 12.5 per cent (y-o-y) from 12.7 per cent (y-o-y) during the same period. RBI Bulletin February 2026 39 52-naJ-60 52-beF-50 52-raM-70 52-rpA-60 52-yaM-60 52-nuJ-50 52-luJ-50 52-guA-40 52-peS-30 52-tcO-30 52-voN-20 52-ceD-20 62-naJ-10 62-naJ-13ARTICLE State of the Economy Chart IV.6: Credit and Deposit Growth Remain Robust (Y-o-y, per cent) 15 14.6 14 13 12.5 12 11 10 9 8 Credit growth Deposit growth Notes: 1. SCBs’ data are inclusive of regional rural banks. Data include the impact of the merger of a non-bank with a bank. 2. With the change in the definition of fortnight vide the Banking Laws (Amendment) Act, 2025, data for SCBs pertain to 15th and last day of the month, effective December 15, 2025. Source: Fortnightly Section 42 Returns, RBI. total outstanding credit to the commercial sector rose Table IV.2b: Outstanding Credit to the by 14.7 per cent, with non-bank sources registering a Commercial Sector growth of 15.1 per cent (Table IV.2b). (₹ lakh crore; Figures in parentheses are y-o-y percentage changes) Source At End-March As on January 31 Overall non-food bank credit42 growth (y-o-y) 2024 2025 2025 2026 P witnessed strengthening across all major sectors in A. Non-Food Bank Credit 164.09 182.07 178.12 203.86 Table IV.2a: Flow of Financial Resources to the (20.2) (11.0) (11.3) (14.4) Commercial Sector B. Non-Bank Sources 77.57 88.86 84.30 97.02 (B1+B2) (₹ lakh crore) (4.2) (14.6) (12.6) (15.1) Source April-March Up to January 31 B1. Domestic Sources 56.59 66.37 62.18 72.80 2023-24 2024-25 2024-25 2025-26 P (4.9) (17.3) (15.5) (17.1) A. Non-Food Bank Credit 21.40 17.98 14.03 21.79 B2. Foreign Sources 20.98 22.49 22.12 24.22 B. Non-Bank Sources 12.64 17.10 11.50 12.69 (2.4) (7.2) (5.2) (9.5) (B1+B2) C. Total Credit (A+B) 241.66 270.94 262.43 300.88 B1. Domestic Sources 10.20 13.86 9.14 9.59 (14.5) (12.1) (11.7) (14.7) B2. Foreign Sources 2.43 3.25 2.36 3.10 P: Provisional. C. Total Flow of 34.04 35.09 25.53 34.47 Notes: 1. Figures in the columns might not add up to the total due to Resources (A+B) rounding off of numbers. P: Provisional. 2. Data on non-bank sources excludes issuances of equities and Notes: 1. Figures in the columns might not add up to the total due to hybrid instruments under domestic sources and foreign direct rounding off of numbers. 2. For detailed notes and data, please refer to Current Statistics investment in equities under foreign sources. Table No: 18(a). 3. Flows based on outstanding data may not tally with the flows Sources: RBI; SEBI; AIFIs; and RBI staff calculations. provided in Table IV.2a due to: (a) Merger of HDFC Limited with HDFC Bank on July 1, 2023; (b) Conversion of some Housing Finance Companies into Non- Banking Financial Companies; and (c) Valuation effect in case of foreign sources. 4. For detailed notes and data, please refer to Current Statistics Table No: 18(b). Sources: RBI; SEBI; AIFIs; and RBI staff calculations. 40 RBI Bulletin February 2026 52-naJ-60 52-naJ-12 52-beF-50 52-beF-02 52-raM-70 52-raM-22 52-rpA-60 52-rpA-12 52-yaM-60 52-yaM-12 52-nuJ-50 52-nuJ-02 52-luJ-50 52-luJ-02 52-guA-40 52-guA-91 52-peS-30 52-peS-81 52-tcO-30 52-tcO-81 52-voN-20 52-voN-71 52-ceD-20 52-ceD-71 62-naJ-10 62-naJ-61 62-naJ-13 42 Provisional data. Non-food credit data are based on fortnightly Section-42 return which covers all SCBs. Sectoral non-food credit data is based on sector-wise and industry-wise bank credit (SIBC) return, which covers select banks accounting for about 95 per cent of total non-food credit extended by all SCBs, pertaining to the last reporting fortnight of the month. The bank groups covered under the SIBC return are – Public Sector Banks, Private Sector Banks, Foreign Banks, and Small Finance Banks.State of the Economy ARTICLE December (Chart IV.7). Agriculture and industrial rate on both fresh and outstanding rupee loans of credit growth surged to double digits. Within scheduled commercial banks declined by 105 basis industries, lending to micro, small and medium points (bps) and 81 bps, respectively. On the deposit enterprises (MSMEs) as well as large industries side, repricing has been faster for fresh deposits due witnessed higher growth. Credit to services sector to the higher share of short-duration bulk deposits, also registered a sharp uptick in growth, attributable while outstanding deposit rates have adjusted to a steep rise in bank lending to NBFCs, along with gradually, reflecting the longer tenors of existing robust growth in sectors such as trade and commercial term deposits (Table IV.3). real estate. Growth in personal loans strengthened, The decline in the weighted average lending rate led by housing, gold and vehicle loan segments. on fresh and outstanding rupee loans was higher Deposit and Lending Rates in the case of private banks relative to public sector In response to the cumulative 125 basis points banks (Chart IV.8). On the deposit side, transmission reduction in the policy repo rate during February– was higher for public sector banks compared to December 2025, the weighted average lending private banks in case of fresh term deposits. Chart IV.7: Bank Credit Growth Recorded an Uptick (Y-o-y, per cent) a. Credit: Agriculture b. Credit: Industry 15 13 12.1 11 9 7 5 c. Credit: Services d. Credit: Personal Loans Source: RBI. RBI Bulletin February 2026 41 42-ceD 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 16 15.3 14 12 10 8 6 42-ceD 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 15 14.4 14 13 12 11 10 42-ceD 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 14 13.3 12 10 8 6 4 42-ceD 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceDARTICLE State of the Economy Table IV.3: Robust Pass-through during the Ongoing Easing Cycle (Basis points) Term Deposit Rates Lending Rates Period Repo Rate WADTDR- WADTDR- EBLR 1-Year MCLR WALR - Fresh Rupee Loans WALR- Fresh Outstanding (Median) Outstanding Deposits Deposits Overall Interest Rate Rupee Loans Effect# (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Tightening Period 250 259 206 250 175 182 191 115 May 2022 to Jan 2025 Easing Phase -125 -95 -41 -125 -55 -105 -94 -81 Feb 2025 to Dec 2025 #: Calculated at January 2025 weights. WALR: Weighted average lending rate; WADTDR; Weighted average domestic term deposit rate. MCLR: Marginal cost of funds-based lending rate; EBLR: External benchmark-based lending rate. Note: Data on EBLR pertain to 32 domestic banks. Source: RBI. Equity Markets announcement of an interim India-US trade deal and strong corporate earnings results for Q3:2025-26 Indian equity markets declined in January even as concerns surrounding artificial intelligence- 2026 amidst uncertainties over US import tariffs led disruptions capped the gains. and renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions. The optimism surrounding the India-EU trade deal and External Sources of Finance the release of GDP growth projections for 2026- During April-December 2025, foreign direct 27 in the Economic Survey supported the equity investment (FDI) remained higher than in the same markets towards the end of January (Chart IV.9). In period last year, both in gross and net terms.43 Gross February, the equity markets were buoyed by the inward FDI remained robust in December, with Chart IV.8: Transmission across Bank Groups (February - December 2025) a. Lending Rates b. Deposit Rates (Basis points) (Basis points) 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -37 -40 -60 -60 -80 -74 -80 -85 -85 -100 -100 -94 -98 -101 -101 -106 -107 -120 -112 -120 -140 WALR WALR -140 WADTDR WADTDR (Fresh Rupee Loans) (Outstanding Rupee Loans) (Fresh Deposits) (Outstanding Deposits) Publicsectorbanks Private banks Foreign banks Public sector banks Private banks Foreign banks Note: Transmission during February to December 2025 is calculated by subtracting the weighted average lending and deposit rates of January 2025 from those of December 2025. Source: RBI. 43 Net FDI rose to US$ 4.0 billion during April-December 2025 from US$ 0.6 billion during the same period last year. Gross inward FDI rose to US$ 73.3 billion during April-December 2025 from US$ 63.1 billion during the same period last year. 42 RBI Bulletin February 2026State of the Economy ARTICLE Singapore, the Netherlands and Mauritius accounting repatriation and outward FDI.44 For outward FDI, for more than 80 per cent of total inflows. The major key destinations were Singapore, the US, the UAE, recipient sectors were transport, manufacturing, the UK and the Netherlands and the major sectors computer services, and electricity and other energy included financial, insurance and business services, generation, distribution and transmission. In and wholesale/retail trade, restaurants, and hotels December 2025, however, net FDI remained negative for the fourth consecutive month due to rise in (Chart IV.10). Chart IV.10: Robust Gross Foreign Direct Investment Inflows a. Gross and Net FDI b. Country-Wise Outward FDI in December 2025 (US$ billion) (US$ million) 15 10 8.6 5 0 -1.6 -5 -10 -15 Net outward FDI Repatriation / Disinvestment Gross Inward FDI Net FDI Source: RBI. 44 Net outward FDI increased by 30.5 per cent (y-o-y) in December 2025. RBI Bulletin February 2026 43 42-ceD 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD Chart IV.9: Domestic Equity Markets Rebounded in February (Index, left scale; ₹ thousand crore, right scale) 88000 13 11 85000 9 82000 7 5 79000 3 76000 1 73000 -1 -3 70000 -5 67000 -7 -9 64000 -11 61000 -13 BSE Sensex FPI+DII flows (RHS) Source: Bloomberg. Singapore US UAE UK Netherlands 0 200 400 600 800 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 62-beF 83451ARTICLE State of the Economy Offshore fund raising via the external commercial borrowings (ECB) route witnessed the highest registrations in the current financial year in December, partly attributable to the rate cut by the US Fed in December. On a cumulative basis, both registrations and net inflows of ECB moderated during April-December 2025 compared to the same period a year ago. The broader decline in offshore funding, amongst other factors, reflects the lower appeal for foreign financing in a domestic rate cut cycle (Chart IV.12).46 India’s foreign exchange reserves remain adequate, providing cover for goods imports for almost a year and around 96 per cent of the external debt outstanding (Chart IV.13).47 While foreign Foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) staged a currency assets continue to have the largest share comeback in February with investor sentiments turning around following the India-EU free trade in India’s foreign exchange reserves, gold’s share agreement and the interim India-US trade deal has increased as on February 06, 2026 over the end- (Chart IV.11).45 December level due to valuation effects.48 Chart IV.12: External Commercial Borrowings - Registrations and Flow Moderated (US$ billion) 50 45 40 35 30 27.6 25 20 15 12.8 10 4.4 2.6 5 0 -5 -10 Registrations Net inflows Source: RBI. 45 During 2025–26 so far (up to February 16, 2026), net FPI registered outflows to the tune of US$ 4.1 billion, driven largely by withdrawals from the equity segment. In February so far (up to 16th), net FPI recorded inflows amounting to US$ 2.3 billion. 46 The registrations of ECBs moderated to US$ 27.6 billion during April-December 2025, from US$ 43.3 billion in the corresponding period a year ago. 47 As on February 06, 2026, the import cover for goods and services was around nine months. 48 Share of gold in India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to 17.2 per cent as on February 06, 2026 from end-December position of 16.2 per cent. 44 RBI Bulletin February 2026 42-rpA 42-yaM 42-nuJ 42-luJ 42-guA 42-peS 42-tcO 42-voN 42-ceD 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 4202 ceD-rpA 5202 ceD-rpA Chart IV.11: Foreign Portfolio Investments Showed Early Signs of Recovery (US$ billion) 6 4 2.3 2 0 -2 -4 -2.4 -6 Equity Debt Total *: Data up to February 16, 2026. Note: Debt includes investments under the hybrid instruments. Source: National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ *62-beFState of the Economy ARTICLE Chart IV.13: India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Comfortable (US$ billion, left scale; months, right scale) 750 717.1 13 650 12 11.6 550 11 450 350 10 Foreign currency assets Gold Special drawing rights (SDRs) Reserve tranche position in IMF Import cover (RHS) *: As on February 06, 2026. Note: The import cover data is based on annualised merchandise imports as per the balance of payments statistics. Source: RBI. RBI Bulletin February 2026 45 42-raM 42-nuJ 42-peS 42-ceD 52-raM 52-nuJ 52-tpeS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ *62-beF Chart IV.14: INR Appreciated vis-à-vis USD amidst Net FPI Inflows 93 92 92 91 91 90 90 89 89 88 Note: Red candles indicate depreciation i.e., INR has closed higher at the week-end than it opened. Green candles indicate appreciation i.e., INR has closed lower at the week-end than it opened. Source: RBI. Foreign Exchange Market January lows (Chart IV.14). In real effective terms, the Indian rupee depreciated in January as depreciation The Indian rupee (INR) depreciated against the of the INR in nominal effective terms more than US dollar in January in the wake of foreign portfolio outflows and uncertainty surrounding the India-US offset higher prices in India vis-à-vis its major trading trade deal. In February, with net foreign portfolio partners (Chart IV.15). flows turning positive, the INR recovered from its 1 keeW 2 keeW 3 keeW 4 keeW 1 keeW 2 keeW 3 keeW 4 keeW 5 keeW 1 keeW 2 keeW Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Chart IV.15: Movements in the 40-Currency Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) a. Monthly Changes b. Decomposition of Monthly Changes (Index (2015-16 = 100), left scale; per cent, right scale) (Per cent) 108 2 106 104 0 102 100 -0.4 98 -2 96 94 94.8 92 -4 Relative price effect Change in REER Change in REER (RHS) REER Nominal exchange rate effect Note: Positive change indicates an appreciation of nominal and real exchange rate and negative change indicates a depreciation. Source: RBI. 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJ 1 0.3 0 -0.4 -1 -0.7 -2 -3 52-naJ 52-beF 52-raM 52-rpA 52-yaM 52-nuJ 52-luJ 52-guA 52-peS 52-tcO 52-voN 52-ceD 62-naJARTICLE State of the Economy V. Conclusion term, it has led to a change in investor sentiments. Foreign portfolio investment into equity and debt Global economic outlook and financial market segment staged a comeback in February. conditions are in a state of flux, being pulled by diverse signals, imparting some amount of volatility On the fiscal front, the continued commitment to market movements. While the simmering to fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability geopolitical tensions, public debt sustainability signals prudent macroeconomic management. The concerns in AEs, stretched valuation of AI firms gradual reduction in the fiscal deficit, combined and disruptions of AI on software services industry, with a sustained emphasis on capital expenditure, are posing negative risk to outlook, robust macro- is expected to crowd in private investment and economic data releases including corporate earnings, improve productive capacity. Support to states for on the other hand, have added to the positive capital investment is also likely to reinforce sub- sentiments. national growth and infrastructure development. The completion of the India-EU free trade The near-term economic outlook for the economy negotiations in end-January and the subsequent remains favorable and is well-positioned to sustain interim trade agreement between India and US are its high growth momentum, driven by consumption, likely to play a significant role in the coming years investment, and productivity-enhancing reforms.49 by improving market access, enhancing export Inflation is expected to remain benign and near competitiveness, and integrating Indian firms more the inflation target50, providing a positive growth deeply into global value chains. In the immediate inflation balance in the near term. 49 The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resolution of February 6, 2026, revised upward the growth projections for Q1:2026-27 and Q2 by 0.2 per cent each to 6.9 per cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively. 50 The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resolution of February 6, 2026, projected the CPI inflation for 2025-26 at 2.1 per cent with Q4 at 3.2 per cent. CPI inflation for Q1:2026-27 and Q2 are now projected at 4.0 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively. 46 RBI Bulletin February 2026State of the Economy ARTICLE Annex Box A: Salient Features of the Revised Consumer Price Index The price base year of the Consumer Price Index elementary level to better capture quality and (CPI) has been revised to 2024=100, replacing the specification changes. previous price base year of 2012=100. The weight As there have been changes in classification, the reference period for the new base year is based on the weights between the old and new series are strictly Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) not comparable across categories. Under the new 2023-24, reflecting the contemporary consumption structure, the weight of the food and beverages patterns and structural economic changes. division has declined from 45.9 per cent in the 2012 The revised series has expanded the coverage of series to 36.8 per cent, of which 3.3 per cent is due surveyed markets and items (from 299 to 358), to reclassification of cooked meals and snacks to a along with the integration of online market price new division named ‘restaurant and accommodation data. The revised basket reveals that items with services’. Within food, the weight of cereals has historically higher price volatility have comparatively declined from 9.7 per cent to 5.9 per cent, pulses lower weights. Methodological enhancements from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent, vegetables from 6.0 include the exclusion of employer-provided housing per cent to 5.2 per cent, and oils and fats from 3.6 per and free public distribution system items, the cent to 2.7 per cent. The weight of CPI core (excluding introduction of rural housing indices, imputation food and fuel) increases from 47.3 per cent to 57.9 for certain missing data (including seasonal items), per cent (including restaurants and accommodation and the adoption of chain-based formulae at the services) [Chart A1]. Chart A1: Revised CPI Weighting Structure Sources: NSO, MoSPI. Source: Expert Group Report on Comprehensive Updation of Consumer Price Index, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India (January 2026). RBI Bulletin February 2026 47Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment ARTICLE Union Budget 2026-27: economic stability with targeted sectoral support, this Budget sends a strong signal of policy continuity An Assessment and commitment to reform. by Akash Raj, Harshita Yadav, On the receipts front, the gross tax revenue is Ettem Abhignu Yadav, Aayushi Khandelwal, budgeted to increase by 8.0 per cent in 2026-27, largely due to accelerated growth in income tax collections Anoop K Suresh, and Shromona Ganguly^ and sustained growth of union excise duties over 2025-26 (Revised Estimates, RE). On the expenditure The Union Budget 2026–27 strikes a careful side, the thrust on capex continues. Notwithstanding balance between growth augmentation and fiscal the fiscal consolidation, the capital expenditure as consolidation, with a strong emphasis on infrastructure, per cent of GDP will be maintained at 3.1 per cent in manufacturing, and technology-led development. It 2026-27 (Budget Estimates, BE). The effective capital reinforces India’s medium-term growth outlook through expenditure1 would increase to 4.4 per cent of GDP higher capital expenditure and targeted sectoral in 2026-27 (BE) from 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2025- initiatives in healthcare, MSMEs, and green transition. 26 (RE), reflecting the focus on growth-enhancing At the same time, it maintains a credible path of fiscal spending. Simultaneously, the revenue expenditure deficit reduction to preserve macro-economic stability. has been contained at 10.5 per cent of GDP in 2026- Overall, the Budget reflects a forward-looking strategy 27 (BE) from 10.8 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 (RE). aimed at strengthening resilience, innovation, and To further encourage State governments to augment inclusive growth in the Indian economy. their capital spending, the ‘Special Assistance as Introduction Loans to States/ UTs (with legislature) for Capital Investment’ has been extended with an enhanced The Union Budget 2026-27 reaffirms the provision of ₹2.0 lakh crore in 2026-27 (BE), higher Government’s commitment to fiscal discipline than ₹1.5 lakh crore in 2025-26 (RE). while reinforcing the aspiration of Viksit Bharat. At The Government has fulfilled its commitment a time of global economic uncertainty, the Budget made in the financial year 2021-22 regarding demonstrates strategic foresight by prioritising bringing down the gross fiscal deficit (GFD) to below infrastructure investment, technological self- 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26. This stands as a reliance, and human capital development while testimony to the Government’s vision of enabling maintaining a credible path of fiscal consolidation. sound public finances while securing growth. For The emphasis on innovation, manufacturing, 2026-27, the GFD is budgeted at 4.3 per cent of GDP, healthcare, and climate-conscious development in line with the Government’s target of reaching a underscores a long-term vision for building a resilient debt-to-GDP ratio of 50(+/-1) per cent by 2030-31. and inclusive Indian economy. By combining macro- Going forward, the targeted glide path of debt-to- ^ The authors are from the Department of Economic and Policy Research of the Reserve Bank of India. Assistance provided by Debapriya GDP ratio would help gradual freeing up of resources Saha, Manager and Harshawardhan Hiraman Chaudhari, Assistant is for other sectoral expenditure. acknowledged. The authors are thankful to Smt. Sangeeta Das for her overall guidance in preparing this article. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views 1 Effective capital expenditure is the sum total of capital expenditure and of the Reserve Bank of India. grants-in-aid for creation of capital assets. RBI Bulletin February 2026 49ARTICLE Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment Against this backdrop, the rest of the article Table 1: Key Indicators2 is divided into eight sections. Section II discusses (Per cent of GDP) Item 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 the underlying drivers of fiscal deficit, followed Actuals BE RE BE by analyses of revenue and expenditure trends in 1 2 3 4 5 Sections III and IV, respectively. Section V outlines 1. Fiscal Deficit 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.3 the Government’s outstanding debt position, while 2. Primary Deficit 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 Section VI focuses on the major sources of fiscal 3. Revenue Deficit 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 4. Effective Revenue Deficit 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.3 deficit financing. Section VII examines the transfer 5. Gross Tax Revenue 11.5 12.0 11.4 11.2 of resources to States and Section VIII presents the 6. Non-Tax Revenue 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.7 concluding observations. 7. Revenue Expenditure 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.5 II. Fiscal Deficit – The Underlying Dynamics 8. Capital Expenditure 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 of which: As envisaged in the Union Budget (i) Capital Outlay 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 9. Effective Capital Expenditure 4.0 4.3 3.9 4.4 2021-22, the central government has adhered to its 10. Debt 56.5 56.1 56.1 55.6 medium-term fiscal consolidation path by bringing Notes: 1. Effective revenue deficit is the difference between revenue the GFD below 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26. For deficit and grants-in-aid for creation of capital assets. 2. Capital outlay is capital expenditure less loans and advances. 2026-27, the GFD is budgeted at 4.3 per cent of GDP 3. Effective capital expenditure is capital expenditure plus grants- in-aid for creation of capital assets. (as against 4.4 per cent in the RE for 2025-26), in 4. External Debt is taken at current exchange rate. Sources: Union budget documents; and RBI staff estimates. line with the Government’s target of debt-to-GDP ratio of 50±1 per cent by 2030-31. The budgeted of 37.1 per cent during 2019-20 to 2024-25 to 56.9 consolidation of GFD in 2026-27 over 2025-26 (RE) is per cent in 2025-26 (RE), is budgeted to marginally envisaged by containment of revenue expenditure at decline to 55.6 per cent of GFD in 2026-27. The share 10.5 per cent of GDP [10.8 per cent in 2025-26 (RE)], of GFD pre-empted by revenue deficit (RD), which while capital expenditure is retained at 3.1 per cent had declined from an average of 60.0 per cent during of GDP. Gross tax revenue is budgeted at 11.2 per 2019-20 to 2024-25 to 33.8 per cent in 2025-26 (RE), cent of GDP, marginally lower than 11.4 per cent in is budgeted to increase marginally to 34.9 per cent in 2025-26 (RE). 2026-27 (Chart 1). The revenue expenditure to capital outlay III. Receipts (RECO) ratio – a summary indicator of the quality Total non-debt receipts recorded a growth of expenditure – is budgeted to remain steady at of 10.7 per cent in 2025-26 (RE) [accounting for 4.4 in 2026-27 (BE). Effective capital expenditure is 9.5 per cent of GDP] as compared to 10.4 per cent budgeted at 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2026-27, higher in 2024-25. During 2025-26, the government’s than 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 (RE) [Table 1]. receipts were supported by strong growth in non- Decomposition of GFD debt capital receipts, and non-tax revenue. For 2026-27 (BE), the government has projected a Capital outlay remains as the primary component slight moderation in the growth of total non-debt of GFD in 2026-27 (BE). However, the share of capital outlay in GFD, which increased from an average 2 For details, please refer to Annex I. 50 RBI Bulletin February 2026Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment ARTICLE Chart 1: Decomposition of Gross Fiscal Deficit (Per cent of GFD) 120 100 80 36.7 36.0 46.9 47.6 60 56.9 54.3 57.1 56.9 55.6 40 59.6 61.6 20 48.7 46.2 36.0 35.8 33.4 33.8 34.9 0 -20 BE Actual BE Actual BE Actual BE RE BE 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Revenue deficit Capital outlay Net lending Miscellaneous capital receipts Source: Union budget documents. receipts, primarily accounting for a contraction Tax Revenues in receipts from goods and services tax (GST) and Gross tax revenue recorded a moderate growth of a marginal decline in non-tax revenue. Gross tax 7.4 per cent in 2025-26 (RE) over 2024-25, on account revenue is budgeted to grow by 8.0 per cent in 2026- of slowdown in income tax and GST collections. 27, along with 9.6 per cent growth in devolution to However, it is budgeted to rise by 8.0 per cent in the States, resulting in 7.2 per cent uptick in net tax 2026-27. Notably, direct taxes continue to remain revenue for 2026-27 (BE). buoyant in 2025-26 (RE) and 2026-27 (BE) [Chart 2]. Chart 2: Trends in Tax Buoyancy a. Major Direct and Indirect Taxes b. Total Tax (Tax buoyancy) (Tax buoyancy) 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.2 -0.5 Corporation Income Tax GST Customs Duty Union Excise 0.0 Tax Duty Gross Tax Revenue Direct Taxes Indirect Taxes 2024-25 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) 2024-25 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) Sources: Union budget documents; and RBI staff estimates. RBI Bulletin February 2026 51ARTICLE Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment Chart 3: Tax-GDP Ratio (Per cent of GDP) 14 11.2 12 10 8 6.9 6 4.3 4 2 0 Gross Tax Revenue Direct Tax Indirect Tax Sources: Union budget documents; and RBI staff estimates. The tax-GDP ratio is budgeted at 11.2 per cent in excise and custom duty exceeded their respective 2026-27 which is marginally lower than 11.4 percent budgetary estimates for 2025-26. In 2026-27, the in 2025-26 (RE), primarily attributable to moderation growth in indirect tax collections is budgeted to in indirect taxes (Chart 3). However, direct tax to moderate to 3.0 per cent reflecting contraction in GDP ratio is budgeted to increase to 6.9 per cent in GST collections (accounting for the impact of GST 2026-27 from 6.8 per cent in 2025-26 (RE). rate rationalisation) and deceleration in growth Direct Taxes in customs duty (Chart 5 and Annex I). However, With a decelerated growth of 9.0 per cent, the direct taxes in 2025-26 (RE) remained below the budgeted estimates for 2025-26, primarily due to slowdown in income tax collections. The corporation tax collections, however, exceeded the budgeted amount by ₹27,000 crore. For 2026-27, the direct taxes are budgeted to sustain their growth momentum, with income tax and corporation tax increasing by 11.5 per cent and 11.0 per cent, respectively (Chart 4). Indirect Taxes Receipts from indirect tax rose (y-o-y) by 5.2 per cent in 2025-26 (RE) but remained below the budgeted amount, primarily on account of slowdown in GST collections. Notably, the receipts from union 52 RBI Bulletin February 2026 10-0002 20-1002 30-2002 40-3002 50-4002 60-5002 70-6002 80-7002 90-8002 01-9002 11-0102 21-1102 31-2102 41-3102 51-4102 61-5102 71-6102 81-7102 91-8102 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 )ER( 62-5202 )EB( 72-6202 Chart 4: Direct Taxes (₹ thousand crore, left scale; per cent of GDP, right scale) 6.9 3,000 7.0 2,500 6.5 2,000 1,500 6.0 1,000 5.5 500 0 5.0 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) Income Tax Corporation Tax Others Direct Taxes as per cent of GDP (RHS) Sources: Union budget documents; and RBI staff estimates.Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment ARTICLE Chart 5: Indirect Taxes Chart 6: Major Components of Non-Tax Revenue (₹ thousand crore, left scale; per cent of GDP, right scale) (₹ thousand crore) 800 2,000 5.5 700 5.0 600 1,500 500 4.3 4.5 400 1,000 300 4.0 200 500 3.5 100 0 0 3.0 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 (RE) (BE) (RE) (BE) Dividends from Public Sector Enterprises Others GST Custom Duty Union Excise Duty Dividends from Financial Institutions including Reserve Bank Indirect Taxes as per cent of GDP (RHS) Interest Receipts Sources: Union budget documents; and RBI staff estimates. Sources: Union budget documents; and RBI staff estimates. reforms in GST framework in terms of simplification non-debt capital receipts are budgeted to sustain of compliance and rate structure is expected to the growth momentum, mainly through an broaden the tax base going forward. elevated miscellaneous capital receipts target of ₹80,000 crore.3 Non-Tax Revenue IV. Expenditure In 2025-26 (RE), the non-tax revenue rose sharply by 24.4 per cent largely driven by the higher During 2025-26 (RE), the total expenditure of than budgeted surplus/dividend transfer from the the Union government grew by 6.7 per cent against Reserve Bank/nationalised banks, and other financial the budgeted growth of 7.4 per cent. Nonetheless, institutions. For 2026-27 (BE), the collections from it remained higher than the growth of 4.7 per cent non-tax revenue (accounting for 1.7 per cent of GDP) attained in 2024-25. The fall in total expenditure are expected to register marginal decline over the in 2025-26 (RE) below its budgeted amount was on collections of 2025-26 (RE) [Chart 6]. However, in account of rationalisation in revenue expenditure contrast, the dividend from public sector enterprises to the tune of ₹75,168 crore, and underutilisation are budgeted to grow by 5.6 per cent in 2026-27, after of the allocated capital expenditure by ₹25,335 recording a contraction in 2025-26 (RE). crore. For 2026-27, the total expenditure is budgeted for a slightly higher growth of 7.7 per cent, with Non-Debt Capital Receipts increase in revenue and capital expenditure at 6.6 Notwithstanding a high growth (y-o-y), per cent and 11.5 per cent, respectively (Table 2). In non-debt capital receipts fell short of budgeted addition to a higher budgeted capex, the allocation estimates by ₹11,974 crore in 2025-26 (RE), due 3 The Union Budget 2026-27 proposes setting up of dedicated Real Estate to a shortfall in miscellaneous capital receipts Investment Trusts (REITs) for gaining traction in the asset monetisation programme of central public sector enterprises, which in turn would (including disinvestment proceeds). In 2026-27, unlock values and boost government finances. RBI Bulletin February 2026 53ARTICLE Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment Table 2: Expenditure of Central Government Item ₹ Thousand Crore Per cent of GDP Growth Rate (per cent) 2024-25 2025-26 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 (BE) (RE) (BE) (BE) (RE) (BE) (RE) (BE) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1. Total Expenditure 4,653 5,065 4,965 5,347 14.1 14.2 13.9 13.6 4.7 6.7 7.7 2. Revenue Expenditure (RE) 3,601 3,944 3,869 4,125 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.5 3.1 7.4 6.6 (i) Interest Payments (IP) 1,116 1,276 1,274 1,404 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.9 14.2 10.2 (ii) Total Subsidies (TS) 423 426 470 455 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 -2.8 11.1 -3.1 of which : Food 200 203 228 228 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -5.6 14.2 -0.2 Fertiliser 171 168 186 171 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 -9.4 9.2 -8.4 Petroleum 14 12 15 12 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 18.3 4.4 -20.1 (iii) RE-IP-TS 2,063 2,242 2,125 2,267 6.2 6.3 6.0 5.8 3.4 3.0 6.7 (iv) Pension and 274 277 287 296 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 14.9 4.7 3.3 Retirement Benefits (v) Defence (Revenue) 291 312 350 365 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.2 20.2 4.5 3. Capital Expenditure 1,052 1,121 1,096 1,222 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 10.8 4.2 11.5 (i) Capital Outlay 855 895 887 943 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 8.5 3.8 6.3 (ii) Loans and Advances 197 226 208 279 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 22.1 5.9 33.8 Source: Union budget documents. under ‘Special Assistance as Loans to States/UTs Capital Outlay (with Legislatures) for Capital Investment’ has been There was a moderation in growth of capital enhanced to ₹2.0 lakh crore in 2026-27 (BE) from outlay from 8.5 per cent in 2024-25 to 3.8 per cent ₹1.5 lakh crore in 2025-26 (RE), to further in 2025-26 (RE). Nonetheless, it is budgeted for encourage State governments to augment their a higher growth of 6.3 per cent in 2026-27 over capital spending. 2025-26 (RE) [Table 3]. The emphasis laid on Table 3: Capital Outlay Item ₹ Thousand Crore Growth Rate (per cent) 2024-25 2025-26 (BE) 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) 2024-25 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1. Total Capital Outlay 855 895 887 943 8.5 3.8 6.3 2. Defence Services 160 180 218 229 3.6 36.5 5.1 3. Capital Outlay (excluding defence) 695 715 669 714 9.7 -3.8 6.7 (i) Major Infrastructure (of which): 624 574 542 609 8.0 -13.2 12.4 a. Transport (of which): 545 513 512 561 6.0 -6.1 9.6 Indian Railways 252 252 252 278 3.9 0.02 10.3 Roads & Bridges 292 259 259 282 8.1 -11.3 9.1 b. Communications 75 50 24 46 23.5 -67.6 91.4 (ii) Industry & Minerals 13 12 11 10 102.1 -13.1 -8.7 (iii) Science, Technology, and Environment 5 8 7 8 -23.8 26.2 21.8 (iv) Others 53 121 110 87 24.3 105.1 -21.0 Source: Union budget documents. 54 RBI Bulletin February 2026Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment ARTICLE capital outlay in the recent years is reflected in reflected in downward trend in RECO ratio and RD- its 20.0 per cent compounded annual growth rate GFD ratio bodes well for fiscal sustainability. (CAGR) recorded during 2020-21 to 2026-27 (BE), in Major Government Schemes comparison to its CAGR of 13.2 per cent registered The outlay on the central sector schemes and during 2014-15 to 2019-20. Major infrastructure centrally sponsored schemes is budgeted to increase (transport, communication, energy and irrigation) by 8.2 per cent and 30.6 per cent, respectively, in remained the thrust of capital outlay and clocked in a 2026-27 over 2025-26 (RE). The highest allocation CAGR of 29.3 per cent during 2020-21 to 2026-27 (BE). amongst the central sector schemes has been made Quality of Expenditure for Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana, In the post-COVID period, the Union followed by Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi. Under the centrally sponsored schemes, the highest government has focused on rationalisation of outlay has been accorded to Viksit Bharat-Guarantee revenue expenditure while providing continuous for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) followed impetus to capital expenditure. During 2020-21 by Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (Rural and Urban to 2026-27 (BE), the CAGR of revenue expenditure combined). Notably, the allocation for Jal Jeevan declined to 5.0 per cent from a CAGR of 9.9 per cent Mission has recorded an increase of nearly 300 per during 2014-15 to 2019-20. The ratio of revenue cent in 2026-27 (BE), after contraction in the previous expenditure to capital outlay (RECO), an indicator of two years (Table 4). the quality of expenditure of the Government has been falling consistently in the recent years4 (Chart The outlay on centrally sponsored schemes 7a). Similarly, the share of revenue deficit (RD) in constitutes a major part of the resources transferred GFD has been declining in recent years (Chart 7b). to the States. With the objective of enhancing visibility This improvement in public expenditure quality as and transparency in fund flows to States under these 12.0 10.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 RBI Bulletin February 2026 55 21-1102 31-2102 41-3102 51-4102 61-5102 71-6102 81-7102 91-8102 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 )ER( 62-5202 )EB( 72-6202 90 80 68.6 70 60 51.0 50 40 34.9 30 20 10 0 Revenue expenditure to capital outlay Average RECO (2014-15 to 2019-20) Average RECO (2020-21 to 2026-27 BE) 21-1102 31-2102 41-3102 51-4102 61-5102 71-6102 81-7102 91-8102 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 )ER( 62-5202 )EB( 72-6202 Chart 7: Quality of Expenditure a. Revenue Expenditure to Capital Outlay b. Quality of GFD (Ratio) (Per cent share) Revenue deficit as per cent of gross fiscal deficit Average RD-GFD (2014-15 to 2019-20) Average RD-GFD (2020-21 to 2026-27 BE) Sources: Union budget documents; and RBI staff estimates. 4 A falling RECO ratio implies improvement in the quality of expenditure of the government.ARTICLE Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment Table 4: Expenditure on Major Government Schemes Item Thousand Crore Per cent of Total Growth Rate Expenditure (per cent) ₹ 2024-25 2025-26 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 (BE) (RE) (BE) (RE) (BE) (RE) (BE) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 A. Central Sector Schemes (of which) : 1,494 1,622 1,637 1,772 32.1 33.0 33.1 5.0 9.6 8.2 1. PM-KISAN 66 64 64 64 1.4 1.3 1.2 7.6 -4.0 0.0 2. Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana 200 203 228 227 4.3 4.6 4.3 - 14.2 -0.1 (PMGKAY) 3. Modified Interest Subvention Scheme (MISS) 23 23 23 23 0.5 0.5 0.4 58.6 0.0 0.0 4. PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana 8 20 17 22 0.2 0.3 0.4 - 117.5 29.4 5. Crop Insurance Scheme 14 12 12 12 0.3 0.2 0.2 11.8 -15.2 -0.5 B. Centrally Sponsored Schemes (of which): 402 542 420 549 8.6 8.5 10.3 -9.5 4.4 30.6 1. Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment 86 86 88 30 1.8 1.8 0.6 -3.7 2.5 -65.9 Guarantee Programme (MGNREGA) 2. Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and - - - 96 - - 1.8 - - - Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) [VB-G RAM Scheme] 3. Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) / National Rural 23 67 17 68 0.5 0.3 1.3 -67.7 -24.8 298.1 Drinking Water Mission 4. Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna 38 78 40 77 0.8 0.8 1.4 -12.1 5.5 89.9 (Rural and Urban) 5. Samagra Shiksha 36 41 38 42 0.8 0.8 0.8 10.5 4.7 10.8 6. National Health Programme* 32 30 30 32 0.7 0.6 0.6 27.5 -5.7 6.5 7. Saksham Anganwadi and POSHAN 2.0 21 22 21 23 0.5 0.4 0.4 -3.6 -0.3 10.3 (Umbrella ICDS - Anganwadi Services, Poshan Abhiyan, Scheme for Adolescent Girls) -: Not available. *: pertains to Flexible Pool for Reproductive and Child Health (RCH) & Health System Strengthening, National Health Programme and National Urban Health Mission. Note: While VB-G RAM G Scheme is to replace MGNREGA, the allocation has been made for both the schemes for 2026-27. Source: Union budget documents. schemes, the Union government had implemented to States based on the pace of expenditure, and avoid Single Nodal Agency (SNA) framework in 2021. It float/idle parking of funds which facilitates saving of seeks to ensure just-in-time release of scheme funds interest cost and transparent budgeting (Box A). Box A: Treasury Single Account and Cash Management by Centre Following the recommendations of the Expenditure model for the centrally sponsored schemes5. In 2022, the Management Commission (2015), Treasury Single Account TSA framework was further extended to the central sector (TSA) was first adopted in India during 2017-18 on pilot schemes with outlay of more than 500 crore, and in June basis, for the central autonomous bodies which received 2024 this threshold was revised to ₹100 crore6. These ₹ reforms were aimed to minimise the borrowing costs of grants-in-aid from the Centre. Subsequently, in 2021, the the government and enhance efficiency in fund flows government implemented the Single Nodal Agency (SNA) (Contd.) 5 Centrally sponsored schemes are those schemes which are jointly funded by the central and state governments and are implemented by the state governments. Under the SNA framework, every state is required to designate a SNA for each centrally sponsored scheme, and a nodal account is opened in a commercial bank at the state level. The funds from the Centre flow to these accounts via the Reserve Bank, whereas the state’s share is directly released to these accounts by the state’s treasury. 6 Central sector schemes are those schemes which are fully funded by the central government and are implemented by the central government machinery. For each central sector scheme, the relevant Department/Ministry designates an autonomous body or a Central Nodal Agency (CNA) and its sub agencies (SAs); with CNAs opening account with the Reserve Bank in the e-kuber. For the schemes covered under SNA/CNA framework, all receipts and payments are made through the centralised account, thereby eliminating the previous system of multiple accounts at different levels. 56 RBI Bulletin February 2026Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment ARTICLE by moving towards ‘just-in time7 release of funds from Table A.1: Regression Results the relevant Ministry/Department to the beneficiaries/ (Dependent variable: Net cash balances) vendors and avoiding float/ idle parking of funds. Independent Variables Regression co-efficient Mean equation In this context, an attempt has been made towards Constant -10.943* assessing the impact of adoption of SNA on cash (2.166) management practice of the central government using the ARMA structure monthly cash balance data8. Autoregressive conditional MA(1) 0.204* (0.029) heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model is used to analyse the MA(12) 0.542* impact of SNA on cash balance volatility for the sample (0.039) period April 1997 to December 2025. Cash balances (net Conditional Variance of market borrowings)9 are calculated as the difference ARCH(2) 0.449* (0.093) between cash inflows and outflows, wherein non-debt Multiplicative Heteroskedasticity receipts and non-market borrowings together account for Constant 4.545* cash inflow and total expenditure is the cash outflow10 (0.191) (Chander, 2014). To assess the impact of SNA on the Dummy for SNA adoption -1.821* (0.473) cash balances, a dummy variable for July 2021 has been Non-debt receipts -0.004* added which marks the wider adoption of TSA through (0.001) implementation of SNA. Total expenditure 0.020* (0.002) The results of the regression indicate that the adoption Summary of SNA had statistically significant and negative impact Number of observations 345 on the volatility of the cash balances, suggesting Log likelihood -1715.79 improvement in the effectiveness of cash management. Note: 1. The figures in parentheses are standard errors. 2. * represents significance level at 5 per cent. Further, it was found that the non-debt receipts and total expenditure have statistically significant impact on Building on the success of TSA and SNA, the Centre the conditional variance. The volatility of cash balances has currently extended the implementation in several phases such as: (a) ‘SNA-Central’ module extending SNA declines as non-debt receipts increases, and it goes up as to previously excluded centrally sponsored schemes the expenditure increases. The regression coefficient of (from April 2023); (b) ‘TSA hybrid’ for central sector ARCH term is statistically significant suggesting that the schemes involving private sub-agencies which has been volatility in cash balances is driven by past shocks and in effect since June 2024; and (c) SNA-SPARSH (System showcases volatility clustering (Table A.1). for Payments and Reporting across Sectors Holistically) In recent years, the number of days for which the which was initially rolled out for two centrally sponsored Centre has taken recourse to ways and means advances schemes (PM USHA and Swachh Bharat Mission- (WMA)/Overdraft (OD) facilities have declined indicating Gramin) in six states (viz., Rajasthan, Odisha, Karnataka, improved cash management practices adopted by the Telangana, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh) on a pilot basis Centre (Chart A.1). in 2023 and later extended to a wider set of schemes11. (Contd.) 7 Just-in-time release of funds ensures that funds are released only when the same are needed for expenditure, not in advance. This eliminates the need for parking of funds at any level, improving cash utilisation and fiscal discipline of the agencies through which government schemes are implemented. 8 The flow component of the Centre’s cash balance has been analysed using the monthly data released by the Controller General of Accounts. 9 Following the methodology in Chander (2014), market borrowing is excluded from the analysis as the same is used by the Government for smoothening out volatility in cash balances. 10 Non-debt receipts include revenue receipts and non-debt capital receipts. Non-market borrowings consist of receipts from public accounts (such as National Small Saving Fund (NSSF), special deposits, state provident fund etc.) and external borrowings. 11 As per the Union budget document 2026-27, 50 out of the 81 notified centrally sponsored schemes have been onboarded in SNA-SPARSH till December 31, 2025. RBI Bulletin February 2026 57ARTICLE Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment 263 270 220 189 173 170 120 106 70 63 70 40 42 45 50 52 25 24 20 16 15 1 6 9 0 9 8 -30 The TSA and SNA systems are complemented by monthly/ strengthen the government’s effort towards establishing quarterly cash flow forecasts from various ministries, a transparent and efficient cash management system. automated daily cash balance report as part of the Public References: Financial Management System and emphasis on reduction Chander, J. (2014). Government Cash Operations: of off-budget borrowing (Fifteenth and Sixteenth Finance Volatility and Management in India. Reserve Bank of Commission). The ongoing extension of the SNA- India Occassional Papers, Vol. 35 and 36, No 1 and 2: 2014 SPARSH over a larger number of schemes would further & 2015. In recent years, the Union government has also shipbuilding as well as sectors focused on cutting- enhanced the allocations of central sector schemes edge technology such as artificial intelligence (AI), dedicated towards the new emerging strategic atomic research and space technology (Chart 8). sectors such biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and 58 RBI Bulletin February 2026 21-1102 31-2102 41-3102 51-4102 61-5102 71-6102 81-7102 91-8102 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 Chart A.1: The Use of WMA/OD Facility by Union Government (Number of days) WMA OD Source: Reserve Bank of India, Annual Report (various years). Chart 8: Outlay on Emerging Strategic Sectors (₹ thousand crore) 25 20 15 10 5 0 2024-25 2025-26 (BE) 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) AI, quantum technology and semi-conductors Biotechnology and pharmaceuticals Atomic research and space technology Shipbuiding, cargo, and maritime development Note: The schemes included in the ‘AI, quantum technology and semi-conductor’ are Bharat-VISTAAR, India Semiconductor Mission 2.0, Modified Programme for Development of Semiconductors and Display Manufacturing Ecosystem in India, IndiaAI Mission, and National Quantum Mission. For ‘Shipbuilding, cargo, and maritime development’ schemes such as Assistance to Ship Building, Research and Development, Shipbuilding Financial Assistance Scheme (SBFAS) and National Shipbuilding Mission, Scheme for Capacity & Capability Development, and credit risk coverage for shipbuilding in India-Shipbuilding Development Scheme (SbDS), Maritime Development Fund, and Cargo Promotion Scheme – JALVAHAK are included. Source: Union budget documents.Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment ARTICLE 35 0.7 30 0.6 25 0.5 20 0.4 15 0.3 10 0.2 5 0.1 0 0.0 The expenditure towards new and renewable payment to revenue receipts ratio is budgeted at 39.7 energy is budgeted to increase to 0.6 per cent of total per cent in 2026-27 in comparison to 38.1 per cent expenditure in 2026-27, led by increased allocations in 2025-26 (RE). The interest rate-growth differential towards PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana (Chart 9). (IRGD), an indicator of debt sustainability, remains Overall, solar energy comprises 93.2 per cent of the favourable (Chart 11a and b). total allocations towards the Ministry of New and VI. Gross Fiscal Deficit Financing Renewable Energy. The gender budget of the Union On the financing side, gross and net market government as a per cent of total expenditure is borrowings for 2026-27 are budgeted at ₹17.2 lakh budgeted at 9.4 per cent in 2026-27 as compared to 8.0 per cent in 2025-26 (RE) [Chart 10]. crore (4.4 per cent of GDP) and ₹11.7 lakh crore (3.0 per cent of GDP), respectively. Net market V. Outstanding Debt borrowings are estimated to finance 69.2 per cent of After peaking at 62.6 per cent of GDP in 2020-21 the GFD in 2026-27 (BE) as compared to 72.7 per cent amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, the total outstanding of GFD in 2025-26 (RE). As per cent of GDP, the net debt of the Union government has been recording a market borrowings are budgeted to decline in 2026- consistent decline. Continuing with the debt-to-GDP 27. Securities issued against small savings and net ratio as the fiscal anchor12, the Union government treasury bills amounting to ₹3.9 lakh crore and ₹1.3 reiterated its commitment to bring down the debt-to- lakh crore, respectively, are budgeted to finance 22.8 GDP ratio to 50 (+/-1) per cent by March 2031. Debt- per cent and 7.7 per cent of GFD, respectively, in to-GDP ratio of the Union government is budgeted to 2026-27 (Chart 12). consolidate to 55.6 per cent of GDP in 2026-27, lower The gradual reduction in the net market than 56.1 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 (RE). The interest borrowing requirements (as per cent of GDP) of the Union government towards the pre-pandemic level is RBI Bulletin February 2026 59 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 )ER( 62-5202 )EB( 72-6202 Chart 9: Expenditure on New and Renewable Energy 400 10 (₹ thousand crore, left scale; per cent, right scale) 350 9 8 300 7 250 6 200 5 150 4 3 100 2 50 1 0 0 Total expenditure on new and renewable energy Expenditure on new and renewable energy as per cent of total expenditure (RHS) Source: Union budget documents. 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 )ER( 62-5202 )EB( 72-6202 Chart 10: Gender Budget (₹ thousand crore, left scale, per cent, right scale) Schemes with 100 per cent provision towards women welfare Schemes with atleast 30 per cent provision towards women welfare Gender budget as per cent of total expenditure (RHS) Source: Union budget documents. 12 In the Union Budget 2025-26, the Government had announced debt-to- GDP ratio as the fiscal anchor from the financial year 2026-27 to 2030-31.ARTICLE Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Debt as per cent of GDP Interest payments as per cent of revenue receipts expected to facilitate greater availability of resources and special assistance as loans to States/UTs (with for the private sector (Table 5). legislature) for capital investment. The gross transfer of resources to States, as a share of GDP, is budgeted VII. Resource Transfer from Centre to States to increase marginally from 6.5 per cent during 2025- The gross transfers to States have been budgeted 26 (RE) to 6.7 per cent during 2026-27 (BE). For 2026- to increase by 12.2 per cent in 2026-27 (BE) from 27, the Budget has allocated ₹2 lakh crore as 50-year 5.0 per cent during 2025-26 (RE), largely on account interest-free loans for States’ capital expenditure, of transfers under centrally sponsored schemes representing a 33.3 per cent increase over 2025-26 60 RBI Bulletin February 2026 90-8002 11-0102 31-2102 51-4102 71-6102 91-8102 12-0202 32-2202 52-4202 72-6202 Chart 11: Outstanding Liabilities and Interest Rate-Growth Differential a. Debt and Interest Burden of Union Government b. Interest Rate - Growth Differential (Per cent) (Percentage points) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sources: Union budget documents; and RBI staff estimates. 21-1102 31-2102 41-3102 51-4102 61-5102 71-6102 81-7102 91-8102 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 )ER( 62-5202 )EB( 72-6202 Chart 12: Sources of Financing Gross Fiscal Deficit (Per cent of GFD) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) Net market borrowings Net treasury bills Securities against small savings External assistance Drawdown of cash balances Others Source: Union budget documents.Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment ARTICLE Finance Commission14 grants to States and Union Table 5: Market Borrowings of the Union Government Territories are budgeted to decline by 15.4 per cent in (₹ crore) 2026-27. Within this, grants to urban and rural local Financial Year Gross Market Net Market bodies continue to grow, with a notable increase Borrowings Borrowings 1 2 3 for urban local bodies, while disaster management 2019-20 7,10,000 4,73,968 grants see a decline. Post devolution revenue deficit (3.5) (2.4) 2020-21 12,60,116 10,32,907 grants have been discontinued (Table 6). (6.3) (5.2) The Centre has announced a multi-sectoral 2021-22 9,68,382 7,04,097 (4.1) (3.0) development push to strengthen regional growth, 2022-23 14,21,000 11,08,259 (5.3) (4.1) industrial capacity, and service delivery across States. 2023-24 15,43,000 11,80,458 It will support mineral rich States in establishing (5.1) (3.9) dedicated rare earth corridors to promote mining, 2024-25 14,00,697 11,62,878 (4.2) (3.5) processing, research and manufacturing of permanent 2025-26 (RE) 14,61,000 11,32,834 magnets. A challenge-based scheme will be launched (4.1) (3.2) 2026-27 (BE) 17,20,000 11,73,210 to help States set up three plug-and-play chemical (4.4) (3.0) parks to boost domestic chemical production and Notes: 1. Gross market borrowings comprise only fresh borrowings. 2. Net market borrowings are excluding the impact of buyback and reduce import dependence. The Centre will also switching of securities. support the creation of five Regional Medical Hubs 3. Figures in parentheses are as per cent of GDP. Source: Union budget documents. through public–private partnerships to promote (RE). Devolution of States’ share in taxes constitutes medical tourism and generate employment for the largest component of gross transfers (Chart 13).13 doctors and allied health professionals. In addition, 7.5 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 RBI Bulletin February 2026 61 61-5102 71-6102 81-7102 91-8102 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 )ER( 62-5202 )EB( 72-6202 Chart 13: Gross Resource Transfer to States and UTs a. Total Transfers to States b. Resource Transfer to States/UTs (Per cent of GDP) (₹ lakh crore) 18 16 15.3 13.9 14 12 10 8 6 5.2 4.0 4 2 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.3 2.4 2.4 0 Devolution Centrally Special Finance Others of states' sponsored assistance commission share in schemes as loan to grants taxes states/UTs for capital investment 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) Source: Union budget documents. 13 For details, please refer to Annex II. 14 For details on the XVI Finance Commission recommendations for States, please refer to Annex III.ARTICLE Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment Table 6: Finance Commission (FC) Grants to States and UTs Item ₹ Lakh Crore Share in Total FC Grants Growth (per cent) (per cent) 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) 2025-26 (RE) 2026-27 (BE) Finance Commission (FC) Grants 1.5 1.3 - - 26.6 -15.4 1. Grant for Local Bodies – Urban Bodies 0.3 0.5 17.0 35.0 35.1 74.0 2. Grant for Local Bodies – Rural Bodies 0.5 0.6 35.5 43.2 31.6 2.9 3. Grants for Disaster Management 0.3 0.3 21.9 21.8 32.7 -15.8 4. Post Devolution Revenue Deficit Grants 0.1 - 9.0 - -44.0 - 5. Others* 0.3 - 16.6 - 139.5 - *: Includes Grants for Health Sector and Grants for shared Municipal Services. Source: Union budget documents. five University Townships will be developed near VIII. Conclusion major industrial and logistics corridors to integrate The Union Budget 2026-27 envisages a path education, research, skills, and housing. The Centre towards Viksit Bharat balancing ambition with will roll out a Coconut Promotion Scheme to enhance inclusion. While the Government continued its production and productivity in major coconut- thrust on capital expenditure, it also delivered on growing States. Under the Purvodaya initiative, it will its promise of fiscal consolidation, by attaining the develop an integrated East Coast Industrial Corridor, gross fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent of GDP in create new tourism destinations, and provide 2025-26 (RE) and further reducing it to 4.3 per cent e-buses. It has also announced a scheme to develop in 2026-27 (BE). Buddhist circuits in select north-eastern States by preserving heritage sites, improving connectivity, and upgrading pilgrim amenities. 62 RBI Bulletin February 2026Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment ARTICLE Annex I: Union Budget 2026-27: Key Fiscal Indicators Item ₹ Thousand Crore Per cent of GDP Growth Rate 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 (BE) (RE) (BE) (RE) (BE) (RE) (BE) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1. Direct Tax 1,956 2,222 2,520 2,421 2,697 6.7 6.8 6.9 13.6 9.0 11.4 (i) Corporation Tax 911 987 1,082 1,109 1,231 3.0 3.1 3.1 8.3 12.4 11.0 (ii) Income Tax 1,011 1,184 1,360 1,248 1,392 3.6 3.5 3.5 17.1 5.4 11.5 (iii) Security Transaction Tax 34 52 78 64 74 0.2 0.2 0.2 54.5 22.0 15.8 2. Indirect Tax 1,509 1,574 1,750 1,657 1,707 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.3 5.2 3.0 (i) GST 957 1,027 1,178 1,046 1,019 3.1 2.9 2.6 7.3 1.9 -2.6 (ii) Customs Duty 233 233 240 258 271 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.04 10.8 5.0 (iii) Excise Duty 309 304 322 342 407 0.9 1.0 1.0 -1.8 12.8 18.8 3. Gross Tax Revenue (1+2) 3,466 3,796 4,270 4,078 4,404 11.5 11.4 11.2 9.5 7.4 8.0 4. Assignment to States 1,129 1,287 1,422 1,393 1,526 3.9 3.9 3.9 13.9 8.2 9.6 5. NCCD Transfers 9 9 10 10 11 0.03 0.03 0.03 7.8 7.2 7.6 6. Net Tax Revenue (3-4-5) 2,327 2,500 2,837 2,675 2,867 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.0 7.2 7. Non-tax Revenue 402 537 583 668 666 1.6 1.9 1.7 33.5 24.4 -0.2 (i) Dividends and Profits 171 308 325 376 391 0.9 1.1 1.0 80.5 21.8 4.1 (ii) Interest Receipts 38 40 48 40 42 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.7 -0.7 4.0 8. Revenue Receipts (6+7) 2,729 3,037 3,420 3,342 3,533 9.2 9.4 9.0 11.3 10.1 5.7 9. Non debt Capital Receipts 60 42 76 64 118 0.1 0.2 0.3 -30.0 53.1 84.9 (i) Miscellaneous Capital Receipts 33 17 47 34 80 0.1 0.1 0.2 -48.1 96.7 136.4 (ii) Recovery of Loans 27 25 29 30 38 0.1 0.1 0.1 -7.6 22.6 27.2 10. Total Receipts 2,789 3,078 3,496 3,406 3,652 9.3 9.5 9.3 10.4 10.7 7.2 (ex. Borrowings) (8+9) 11. Revenue Expenditure (RE) 3,494 3,601 3,944 3,869 4,125 10.9 10.8 10.5 3.1 7.4 6.6 (i) Interest Payments (IP) 1,064 1,116 1,276 1,274 1,404 3.4 3.6 3.6 4.9 14.2 10.2 (ii) Total Subsidies (TS) 435 423 426 470 455 1.3 1.3 1.2 -2.8 11.1 -3.1 of which: Food 212 200 203 228 228 0.6 0.6 0.6 -5.6 14.2 -0.2 Fertiliser 188 171 168 186 171 0.5 0.5 0.4 -9.4 9.2 -8.4 Petroleum 12 14 12 15 12 0.04 0.04 0.03 18.3 4.4 -20.1 (iii) RE-IP-TS 1,995 2,063 2,242 2,125 2,267 6.2 6.0 5.8 3.4 3.0 6.7 12. Capital Expenditure (i + ii) 949 1,052 1,121 1,096 1,222 3.2 3.1 3.1 10.8 4.2 11.5 (i) Capital Outlay 788 855 895 887 943 2.6 2.5 2.4 8.5 3.8 6.3 (ii) Loans & Advances 161 197 226 208 279 0.6 0.6 0.7 22.1 5.9 33.8 13. Total Expenditure (11+12) 4,443 4,653 5,065 4,965 5,347 14.1 13.9 13.6 4.7 6.7 7.7 14. Fiscal Deficit (13-10) 1,655 1,574 1,569 1,558 1,696 4.8 4.4 4.3 -4.8 -1.0 8.8 Source: Union budget documents. RBI Bulletin February 2026 63ARTICLE Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment Annex II: Resource Transfers from Centre to States and UTs with Legislature Item ₹ Thousand Crore Per cent of Gross Transfers Growth Rate 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 (RE) (BE) (RE) (BE) (RE) (BE) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 I. Devolution of States' Share in Taxes 1286.9 1393.0 1526.3 57.8 59.6 58.2 13.9 8.2 9.6 II. Finance Commission Grants 120.9 153.0 129.4 5.4 6.5 4.9 -18.6 26.6 -15.4 of which: 1. Grant for local bodies - Urban Bodies 19.3 26.0 45.3 0.9 1.1 1.7 -9.2 35.1 74.0 2. Grant for local bodies - Rural Bodies 41.3 54.3 55.9 1.9 2.3 2.1 -12.7 31.6 2.9 3. Grants for Health Sector 10.6 25.2 - 0.5 1.1 - 126.0 137.4 - 4. Grants-in-Aid for SDRF 20.3 24.3 22.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 4.3 19.7 -6.9 5. Grants-in-Aid for State Disaster Mitigation Fund 5.0 9.3 5.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 17.2 85.8 -39.1 6. Post Devolution Revenue Deficit Grants 24.5 13.7 - 1.1 0.6 - -52.6 -44.0 - III. Some Important Items of Transfer 202.7 230.1 279.1 9.1 9.9 10.6 26.5 13.6 21.3 of which: 1. Externally Aided Projects-Loan 34.4 47.2 47.8 1.5 2.0 1.8 9.9 37.1 1.2 2. Special Assistance as Loan to States for 149.5 150.0 200.0 6.7 6.4 7.6 36.4 0.3 33.3 Capital Expenditure 3. Special Assistance under the demand - 3.4 10.0 15.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -71.4 198.5 50.0 Transfers to States IV. Total Transfer to States [other than I+II+III] 555.1 498.2 609.0 24.9 21.3 23.2 -2.8 -10.3 22.3 1. Centrally Sponsored Schemes (Revenue) 382.3 399.9 520.3 17.2 17.1 19.9 -10.1 4.6 30.1 2. Central Sector Schemes 19.2 67.9 77.4 0.9 2.9 3.0 27.0 254.2 14.0 3. Other Categories of Expenditure 153.6 30.4 11.2 6.9 1.3 0.4 17.3 -80.2 -63.2 4. Capital Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 5000.0 V. Transfer to Delhi, Puducherry and Jammu and 60.0 61.9 77.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 8.7 3.2 24.4 Kashmir VI. Gross Transfers to States/UTs (I+II+III+IV+V) 2225.5 2336.1 2620.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.8 5.0 12.2 VII. Less Recovery of Loans and Advances 24.6 50.3 50.3 1.1 2.2 1.9 100.9 104.6 0.0 VIII. Net Transfers (VI-VII) 2201.0 2285.9 2570.5 98.9 97.8 98.1 7.2 3.9 12.5 IX. Gross Transfers / GDP (per cent) 6.7 6.5 6.7 NA NA NA NA NA NA X. Net Transfers / GDP (per cent) 6.7 6.4 6.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Union budget documents. 64 RBI Bulletin February 2026Union Budget 2026-27: An Assessment ARTICLE Annex III: Major Recommendations of the Sixteenth Finance Commission Relating to States The Sixteenth Finance Commission (FC-XVI), Path to Macro and Fiscal Stability chaired by Dr. Arvind Panagariya, submitted its • The Commission recommended capping the report on November 17, 2025. The report covers the State’s gross fiscal deficit at 3 per cent of GSDP award period from 2026-27 to 2030-31 and was laid to enhance fiscal credibility and projected the before Parliament on February 1, 2026. The major central government’s fiscal deficit to decline to recommendations of FC-XVI are outlined below: 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2030-31. Tax Devolution • States’ debt is expected to rise modestly to 27.2 per cent of GDP by 2030-31. Including special • The States’ share in the divisible pool has been assistance to States for capital investment, retained at 41 per cent under vertical devolution. consolidated State government debt is projected • Under horizontal devolution, per capita GSDP to increase to 29.9 per cent of GDP by 2030-31. distance continues to carry the highest weight While aggregate debt remains manageable, inter- in the sharing formula. The formula has been State disparities underscore the need for strict moderately recalibrated, with a higher weight fiscal discipline. assigned to population and marginal reductions • States are advised to eliminate off-budget in the weights for area and demographic borrowings and ensure full disclosure through performance. The forest cover criterion has been standardised budget reporting and CAG accounts. retained, while the tax effort criterion has been • Fiscal Responsibility Legislations should be dropped. amended to align with the consolidation path, • A new criterion, States’ contribution to GDP, has mandate reporting of breaches, and include off- been introduced with a weight of 10 per cent. budget borrowings within deficit and debt limits. Grants-in-aid Structural Transformation • Revenue deficit grants to States have been • States should pursue DISCOM privatisation, discontinued, marking a significant departure with accumulated debt transferred to a special from past practice. purpose vehicle. Prepayment or repayment of this debt would be made eligible for Union • No sector specific or State specific grants have incentives, by linking it to the special capital been recommended, representing a clear shift investment incentive scheme. from the approach adopted in FC-XV. • States should review and rationalise subsidies by • New components have been introduced under retaining only well-targeted schemes, introducing grants for urban local bodies, including the sunset or exit clauses, discontinuing off- Special Infrastructure Component and the budget financing, and ensuring comprehensive Urbanisation Premium. disclosure through standardised CAG reporting. • Disaster management grants place greater • The Union and State Governments should emphasis on pre-disaster mitigation and evaluate the performance of Public Sector resilience building, with increased importance Enterprises, close inactive entities to reduce given to the State Disaster Mitigation Fund fiscal strain, and redeploy their land and alongside the State Disaster Response Fund. buildings for alternative productive uses. RBI Bulletin February 2026 65Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications ARTICLE Retail Inflation Volatility in sensitive to supply-side shocks. This composition of high weightage for food (45.9 per cent of the overall India: Sources, Determinants, CPI basket (2012=100)), exposes headline inflation to and Implications heightened volatility. Food prices exhibit substantial volatility mostly driven by weather fluctuations, by Renjith Mohan, Saquib Hasan, disruptions in supply chains, and policy interventions Suvendu Sarkar and Joice John^ such as export/import restrictions, changes in duties and minimum support prices. Fiscal interventions– This article examines the drivers of headline including buffer stock releases, tax adjustments, inflation1 volatility in India. The main source of this and export restrictions– play an important role in volatility is emanating from vegetable prices–especially stabilising prices. Further, monetary policy actions that of tomato, onion, and potato (TOP)–along with also have a role in containing inflation volatility. Price spillovers from non-TOP vegetable prices. Volatility volatility in certain commodities may transmit to has eased under the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) other items. A prudent monetary policy can contain framework relative to the pre-FIT period, even amid this volatility spillover. repeated supply shocks. Since 2021, a major contributor Against this backdrop, the present study to this moderation has been the government’s timely, aims to identify and categorise the drivers of CPI targeted supply-side interventions, which helped dampen headline inflation volatility in India during the commodity-specific price spikes. Overall, India’s inflation FIT period (2016–2025), with particular emphasis management reflects a coordinated strategy where fiscal on the role of food prices and the dynamics of actions curb extreme price movements, while monetary volatility transmission. By combining cross-sectional policy anchors expectations and limits the broader distributional measures of inflation with spillover transmission of relative price shocks. analysis and incorporating government interventions Introduction into an analytical framework, this paper seeks to provide a comprehensive assessment of the Inflation volatility poses significant challenges mechanisms that shaped the retail inflation volatility for macroeconomic stability, particularly in emerging in India. Section II reviews the existing literature on economies like India, where price fluctuations are inflation volatility and food price dynamics; Section driven by a complex interplay of supply shocks, policy III presents some stylised facts on temporal and cross- changes, and structural rigidities. While inflation sectional distribution of headline inflation volatility; targeting framework anchor inflation expectations, Section IV outlines the methodological framework managing short-term volatility continues to remain and empirical findings; and Section V concludes with a formidable challenge. Consumer Price Index (CPI) policy implications. (2012=100) basket in India is structurally predisposed for heightened inflation volatility due to the II. Literature Review significant weight assigned to food, which is highly The relationship between relative price ^ The authors are from the Department of Statistics and Information movements and aggregate inflation has long been Management, Reserve Bank of India. The views expressed in this article are of those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve central to macroeconomic analysis. Ball and Mankiw Bank of India. (1995) argued that inflation cannot be understood 1 The article uses the earlier Consumer Price Index-Combined series with base 2012=100. simply as the average of relative price changes but is RBI Bulletin February 2026 67ARTICLE Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications influenced by the distribution and variability of those intensifying price volatility in perishable items like changes. Large shocks in key sectors such as food vegetables. Bhattacharya and Gupta (2015) had found and energy can transmit beyond their immediate that both supply and demand factors drive food impact, creating aggregate inflationary pressures. inflation in India with wages, input costs and support They further emphasised on how the distributional prices playing key roles. characteristics of shocks also play an important role A focused strand of literature has examined the in price variability mapped through the asymmetry in dynamics of price movements in key vegetables– price changes quantified by skewness. This framework specifically Tomato, Onion, and Potato (TOP)–which provides a theoretical foundation for linking relative are known to exhibit sizable short-term volatility. price volatility to headline inflation, particularly in Roy et al. (2024), provided a detailed empirical economies where food carries substantial weight analysis of the supply-demand and price behaviour in the consumption basket and exhibits distinctive of TOP items, using a balance-sheet framework and price behaviour compared to non-food items. time-series modelling. Their findings highlighted In this context, Walsh (2011) explored the the influence of market arrivals, climatic factors, characteristics of food and non-food inflation across and infrastructural limitations on price formation. countries and highlights that food inflation in many Kishore and Shekhar (2022) assessed the role of low- and middle-income economies tends to exhibit extreme weather events and showed that unseasonal greater persistence and volatility and detailed the rains and cyclones in major producing states had importance of recognising multiple transmission been associated with sharp price movements in TOP channels through which food prices could influence vegetables, with implications for inflation forecasting non-food inflation. Cecchetti and Moessner (2008) accuracy. The impact of climatic variability on also examined the implications of rising global vegetable prices is further elaborated by Singh and commodity prices and found how food prices are Shandilya (2025), who analysed how anomalies in aiding in shaping headline inflation patterns, rainfall and temperature patterns influence vegetable suggesting the need for a broader inclusive approach inflation in general. Their results underscored the to inflation monitoring. rising significance of temperature shocks and the In the Indian context, several studies have need for incorporating weather indicators into food documented the multi-factorial nature of food price monitoring frameworks, especially under a inflation. Gulati and Saini (2013) identified various flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime. macroeconomic and structural drivers such as Patra et al. (2024a, 2024b) offered a careful fiscal imbalances, rising input costs, and shifts examination of the changing role of food inflation in consumption patterns. Dua and Goel (2021) emphasised the role of demand-side and supply- in India’s overall inflation dynamics and suggested side interactions–including inflation expectations, that food prices, traditionally viewed as volatile but minimum support prices, and rainfall conditions. transitory, are increasingly displaying persistence. Sasmal (2015) presented a general equilibrium This persistence, they argued, reflects the cumulative approach to highlight the sectoral asymmetries impact of repeated supply-side shocks, many of contributing to food price pressures. Further, Gulati which are climate related. Episodes of unseasonal and Wardhan (2019) pointed to the influence of rainfall, heatwaves, and other weather anomalies supply chain frictions and post-harvest losses in have disrupted production cycles and supply chains, 68 RBI Bulletin February 2026Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications ARTICLE thereby introducing more systematic, rather than III. Stylised Facts purely episodic, price pressures. In addition to The temporal distribution of the headline documenting this food inflation behaviour, Patra inflation (year-on-year) during 2016-20252 reveals et al. (2024b) explored its transmission to broader that the distribution remained broadly symmetrical macroeconomic variables. They found that persistent with mean at 4.9 per cent and standard deviation at food price shocks also influenced household inflation 1.5 per cent (Chart 1). Headline inflation volatility, expectations, raising the risk of second-round effects as measured by the standard deviation in 12-month through wage demands and price-setting behaviour rolling window, exhibited a significant reduction in the non-food sector. from 2.4 per cent in the pre-FIT period (2012–2016) to 1.5 per cent during (2016–2025). Notably, during Patra et al. (2024c) extended this discussion this period, inflation exceeded the upper tolerance by analysing how fiscal interventions interacted threshold of 6.0 per cent in 26 per cent of the months, with cross-sectional distributional features of while it fell below the 2.0 per cent lower bound only inflation, namely volatility and skewness. Their three times. findings highlight that repeated supply-side shocks Inflation volatility at the sub-group level in food and fuel amplified inflation variability, and (characterising the cross-sectional variation and that government measures–such as buffer stock measured by sub-group level standard deviations) management and import/export policies–helped reveals a marked divergence between food and non- to mitigate these effects. While their analysis food components, with food inflation exhibiting incorporated both volatility and skewness, the higher volatility compared to its non-food counterparts volatility dimension is particularly relevant here, (Chart 2). as it illustrates how supply-side interventions can However, this pattern was not uniform across complement the role of monetary policy in stabilising all food sub-groups. Specifically, items such as inflation outcomes during periods of heightened uncertainty. Chart 1: Temporal Distribution of Headline Inflation (2016-2025) All these reflect a growing recognition of the (probability density) importance of food price dynamics, their broader 0.3 implications for inflation volatility and monetary Inflation Normal Distribution policy formulation in India. The present study builds 0.25 upon these insights by examining the intra-group 0.2 volatility patterns within food inflation, focusing on the role of certain items/sub-groups. This study aims 0.15 to contribute to the existing literature with a specific 0.1 focus on the role of key sources and determinants of inflation volatility, a topic that was touched upon in 0.05 previous articles but warrants a deeper investigation. We further examine how the spillover effects shaped 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Inflation the headline inflation variability in India and was Sources: MoSPI and Authors’ estimates. affected by the supply-side interventions by the Government of India (GoI). 2 From April 2016 till August 2025. RBI Bulletin February 2026 69ARTICLE Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications 60 40 20 0 -20 ‘vegetables,’ ‘pulses,’ ‘spices,’ and ‘oils and fats’ the higher order moments of inflation with headline displayed higher volatility, whereas ‘milk,’ ‘prepared inflation (Ball and Mankiw, 1995) are estimated ; and meals,’ and ‘beverages’ showed relatively lower iv) the role of supply-side interventions by GoI on volatility on an average. This suggests that the headline inflation and its volatility are examined. observed volatility in food inflation was not a IV.i. Sources of Inflation Volatility: Decomposition of generalised phenomenon rather driven by specific Variance in Headline Inflation sub-groups within the food category. In this section we decompose the temporal Taken together, these distributional patterns volatility in headline inflation to its components suggest that headline inflation volatility is driven emanating from sub-group level volatilities and by a small subset of components within food, the covariance among them. Variance of headline warranting a systematic decomposition of variance inflation3 can be decomposed into those from and assessment of volatility spillovers. individual sub-groups and covariances among them IV. Empirical Results (Borio et al. 2023). The results indicate that the variance of headline inflation remained relatively In this section, we present the sources, stable over time, except during 2019–2020 (Chart 3). determinants, and effects of inflation volatility. The approach encapsulates the following analysis: The reduction in inflation volatility observed i) the decomposition of temporal headline inflation from 2019–2023 can be primarily attributed to a volatility to group/subgroup-level volatility and decrease in the covariance among the sub-groups. covariance among them (Borio, et al., 2023) Since 2022-23, the contribution by the covariance revealing the key determinants of headline inflation among the sub-groups turned negative. This period volatility; ii) using generalised forecast error variance coincided with the tightening of monetary policy. The decomposition the channels of volatility spillovers 3 Here, headline inflation was measured by the weighted average of the (Borio et al., 2023) are identified iii) relationship of 12-month log-difference of underlying sub-group-wise prices. 70 RBI Bulletin February 2026 occaboT ,naP gnihtolC raewtooF gnisuoH thgiL dna leuF smeti dlohesuoH htlaeH tropsnarT noitaerceR noitacudE erac lanosreP Chart 2: Distribution of Inflation at Sub-group Level (2016-2025): Boxplot a. Food b. Non-food (y-o-y, per cent) (y-o-y, per cent) 60 40 20 0 -20 Sources: MoSPI and Authors’ estimates. slaereC hsif dna taeM ggE kliM sliO stiurF selbategeV sesluP raguS secipS segareveB slaem deraperP Sub-group Sub-groupRetail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications ARTICLE Chart 3: Contribution to Headline Inflation Variance (per cent) 3.0 2.89 2.16 2.0 1.35 1.01 1.22 1.00 0.38 0.75 0.79 1.0 0.69 0.0 -1.0 Vegetables Other Food Fuel and Light Ex-Food Fuel Covariance b/w sub-groups Total Variance Notes: 1. Variance contributions are computed using CPI weights (2012=100) and include both subgroup variances and cross-subgroup covariances. 2. Estimates for 2025–26 is based on data available up to August 2025. Sources: MoSPI and Authors’ estimates. behaviour of inflation volatility during this period include onion prices during 2019-20, potato prices in reflects the decoupling of price movements across 2020-21, and tomato prices in 2022-23, 2023-24, and sub-groups, rather than broad-based shifts in overall 2024-25. However, it is observed that the covariances price levels. However, inflation volatility increased among the items within the ‘vegetables’ sub-group during 2023-2025 primarily due to the increase in accounted for more than 50 per cent of the total volatility in vegetable prices. In 2025-26 (till Aug- volatility in ‘vegetables’ inflation across the examined 25), more than 80 per cent of variation in headline period, even higher than 65 per cent in 2025-26. inflation is attributed to vegetable prices. However, This suggests the presence of significant volatility these heightened volatilities in sectoral inflations spillovers among these items. The price fluctuations had not translated to higher covariances and further in one vegetable item may transmit to other items amplification of headline inflation volatility. This in the sub-group, thereby, amplifying the volatility suggest that while price changes at the sub-group in overall vegetable inflation. This inter-dependence level exhibited variability, these fluctuations were among vegetable price volatility further complicates largely idiosyncratic and not correlated indicating efforts to isolate the sources and underscores the restricted volatility spillovers. importance of volatility spillovers while analysing Now we turn on to analyse the volatility of inflation volatility at sub-group level. inflation in vegetables to identify its determinants Reading all together, we can conclude that the (Chart 4). sporadic and episodical shocks in TOP prices and the The findings underscore the role of sporadic and covariance among the vegetable prices are responsible episodic price shocks, particularly in the ‘Tomato- for the overall headline volatility. For isolating the Onion-Potato’ (TOP) category, which had been a major specific shocks in vegetable prices that bring in contributor to the volatility in ‘vegetables’ inflation. this heightened volatility, we need to identify the Notable instances of such shocks inducing volatility determinants of volatility in vegetable price inflation. RBI Bulletin February 2026 71 71-6102 81-7102 91-8102 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 62-5202 )52-guA llit( Chart 4: Contribution to ‘Vegetables’ Inflation Variance (contribution to variance) 400 346.9 300 238.5 216.3 216.3 200 163.0 167.6 106.8 69.8 104.2 98.1 100 0 Potato Onion Tomato ex-TOP Covariance b/w items Total Variance Notes: 1. The variance of the vegetables sub-group has been decomposed into item-level vegetables variances and covariances. 2. Estimates for 2025–26 is based on data available up to August 2025. Sources: MoSPI and Authors’ estimates. 71-6102 81-7102 91-8102 02-9102 12-0202 22-1202 32-2202 42-3202 52-4202 lliT( 62-5202 )52-guAARTICLE Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications IV.ii. Determinants of Volatility in Vegetable Prices The results from the GFEVD analysis, conducted over a 12-month horizon, indicate a distinct To capture intra-group determinants of vegetable asymmetry in the transmission of shocks within the inflation volatility, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) ‘vegetables’ sub-group (Table 1). framework was employed (Borio et al., 2023) on the monthly percentage changes of six components of Shocks to the prices of ‘Tomato-Onion-Potato’ CPI vegetable sub-group (Tomato, Onion, Potato, exhibit a lower propensity to generalize compared Garlic, Ginger and ‘Other Vegetables’) using the data to shocks originating from ‘other vegetables.’ In from April 2015 onwards (till August 2025). Tomato- contrast, volatility in the prices of ‘other vegetables’ Onion-Potato (TOP) are known for sporadic price tends to transmit to the prices of TOP items, thereby changes; Garlic and Ginger, exhibit distinct seasonal inducing volatility in the latter. Further, shocks in behaviour and are storable, while ‘Other Vegetables’ TOP prices are not found to be mutually spilling comprise the remaining items in the sub-group. This among themselves. These results indicate that even though the contribution of item-specific shocks of ‘ex- classification facilitates measurable identification of TOP vegetable’ prices to overall ‘vegetable’ inflation origins and directions of volatility spillovers within volatility is relatively small, they have the potential the vegetable basket. To quantify these spillovers, to generalise and amplify the volatility to ‘vegetables’ we employ the Generalized Forecast Error Variance sub-group as a whole, through spillovers. Decomposition (GFEVD)4 at horizon , following the methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). As volatility in headline inflation is largely 𝐻 The GFEVD decomposes the forecast error variance driven by volatility in ‘vegetables’ inflation, we can of each variable into components attributable to now conclude that the volatility in headline inflation its own shocks and to those emanating from other is mainly determined due to the sporadic and components. episodical shocks in prices of ‘Tomato-Onion-Potato’ Table 1: Forecast Error Variance Decomposition – Vegetable Inflation (12-month horizon) Response/Destination Vegetables Spillovers to other Potato Onion Tomato Garlic Ginger Other Veg Destinations Potato 0.55 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.09 0.07 0.26 Onion 0.04 0.72 0.03 0.02 0.14 0.06 0.30 Tomato 0.03 0.03 0.60 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.30 Garlic 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.78 0.05 0.02 0.13 Impulse/ Ginger 0.19 0.04 0.11 0.14 0.57 0.11 0.58 Source Other Veg* 0.19 0.15 0.19 0.01 0.08 0.58 0.62 Own shocks 0.55 0.72 0.60 0.78 0.57 0.58 Spillovers from 0.45 0.28 0.40 0.22 0.43 0.42 other sources Notes: 1. repersents proportional contribution from other sources; 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2. repersents proportional contributions from own shocks. 3. *: “Other Veg” group defined as the Vegetables sub-group excluding Potato, Onion, Tomato, Garlic, and Ginger. Sources: MoSPI and Authors’ estimates. 4 Unlike traditional FEVD approaches based on Cholesky decomposition–which require orthogonalisation and are sensitive to the ordering of variables– the GFEVD allows for contemporaneous correlation across shocks and yields results invariant to variable ordering. This is particularly useful in the context of food price dynamics, where simultaneous responses to common shocks (e.g., weather anomalies or logistics disruptions) are likely. 72 RBI Bulletin February 2026Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications ARTICLE (TOP) and spillovers emanating from the volatility in volatility and skewness play a significant role in prices of ‘ex-TOP’ vegetables. Now we turn on to the driving the headline inflation dynamics in India. For implications of volatility for inflation management. the headline CPI, the coefficient on inflation volatility and skewness is positive and statistically significant. IV.iii. Impact of Volatility and Asymmetry on Inflation This aligns with the theoretical framework of Ball In this section we assess whether the and Mankiw (1995), who emphasised that inflation distributional moments – standard deviation (σ) and reflects not only average relative price changes but t skewness (γ) affects changes in headline inflation also their variability. This is also in line with the t (Ball and Mankiw, 1995). The regression specification results of Patra et al. (2014) for India based on WPI. is as follows: Put differently, when relative price shocks widen the distribution of sectoral inflation rates, they elevate π α β π β σ β γ ε (1) t t t t t headline inflation over and above the effect of average wher∆e, = π t +i s 1 ∆the– 1 c+h an2 g∆e i+n 2s e∆aso+n al ly adjusted movements. The results suggest that India’s inflation annualised headline inflation. As vegetables are the trajectory has been particularly sensitive to the ∆ main contributor of headline inflation volatility, volatility dimension of relative prices, underscoring alternatively we use the volatility (σv ) and skewness the persistent influence of food and other supply- t (γv ) for vegetables in the regression equation (1). driven shocks on aggregate inflation outcomes. t The regression estimates provided in Table 2 Focusing specifically on the vegetables subgroup, (model 2 and 3) clearly indicates that cross-sectional the results reveal that volatility within this narrower basket also has a significant bearing on headline Table 2: Regression Results inflation (model 4 in Table 2). The positive and robust Sample Period: Dependent Variable: π t coefficient on vegetable volatility highlights that Apr-15 to Aug-25 (1) (2) (3) ∆(4) (5) fluctuations in highly perishable and policy-sensitive π t -0.22** -0.25* -0.26* -0.27** -0.22** items such as tomato, onion, and potato extend (0.02) (0.07) (0.08) (0.04) (0.02) –1 ∆ beyond their direct contribution to the overall index. σ 0.83** t (0.03) By contrast, the skewness of vegetable inflation does ∆ γ 1.30** not emerge as statistically significant, suggesting t (0.00) ∆ that it is the magnitude of dispersion, rather than 0.26** v asymmetry in the distribution of vegetable inflation Δσt (0.00) that drives the transmission to aggregate inflation 0.29 Δγv t (0.74) (model 5 in Table 2). Taken together, these findings α -0.18 -0.38 -0.31 -0.35 -0.19 reaffirm that headline inflation dynamics are shaped (0.74) (0.47) (0.57) (0.51) (0.74) not only by average price changes but also by the Diagnostics cross-sectional volatility of its key components. Now, ARCH LM test 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 p-value we turn on to the role of supply-side management Breusch-Godfrey 0.00 0.40 0.14 0.92 0.00 in determining the inflation developments and LM test p-value volatility in India. Notes: 1. p-value are in brackets: * p<0.1, ** p<0.05 2. As the variables were found to be difference stationary, the IV.iv. Supply Side Measures by Government and estimation is carried out in the first difference. 3. p-values correspond to the robust standard errors in model 2, 3 Inflation Volatility and 4 and Newey-West errors in model 1 and 5. 4. As the null hypothesis of no ARCH effect is rejected in all Finally, we examine whether supply-side models, this strengthens the case for GARCH model exploration. Sources: MoSPI and Authors’ estimates. interventions conducted by GoI (a gist of some of RBI Bulletin February 2026 73ARTICLE Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications the measures are provided in Annex Table I) had Mean equation: any impact on headline inflation and its variability. π α β π β M β ( M G) ε (2) t t t t t t To quantify the fiscal supply-management actions, Volat∆ilit y= e q u+a ti1o ∆n:–1 + 2 ∆ + 3 ∆ × ∆ + we construct an index of supply-side measures following Patra et al. (2024c). Specifically, we code h ρ ρ M ρ ( M G) ρ ε ρ h (3) t t t t t t 2 a binary indicator (G it), that takes the value 1 when where,= h +is t1h ∆e co +n d2i ti∆ona ×l v∆aria +n ce3 of– 1 i+n fla4 tio–n1 at t a supply-management intervention is undertaken time t, ε provides the ARCH term and h is the t t for commodity in month , and 0 otherwise. The GARCH t2e–1rm. Substituting M t σ t yields th –e 1 cross- aggregate index is then computed as a CPI-weighted sectional volatility-based equation, while M γ 𝑖 𝑡 = t t (2012=100) sum across commodities, i.e. G t iw i G it, yields the cross-sectional skewness-based equation. = where w i denotes the CPI basket weight of s e =l e ∑ct item This formulation aids in measuring how supply 5 (Chart 5). This procedure yields a monthly measure side measures interact with distributional features of the extent of targeted supply-side actions–such as of headline inflation and its effects on inflation 𝑖 import facilitation, export restrictions, stock limits, volatility. and buffer stock releases–allowing us to estimate how Results in Table 3 show that even though the such interventions interact with inflation dynamics cross-sectional volatility is not statistically significant and volatility. in the mean equation (after the inclusion of ARCH/ We estimate GARCH (1,1) where distributional GARCH terms), its interaction with the index of moments and their interaction with interventions supply-side measures is statistically significant and affect both the level and conditional volatility of negative. This suggests that supply side measured headline inflation. effectively dampened the ill effects of heightened Chart 5: Index of Supply Management Measures (index) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Note: Supply management constructed using Patra et al. (2024c) methodology and extended the index beyond December 2023. Sources: Patra et al. (2024c) and Authors’ estimates. 5 The select commodities include vegetables like potato, onion, and tomato; pulses like masur, urad, tur, moong, chana, cereals like rice and wheat; refined oil, petrol, diesel, LPG, and sugar. 74 RBI Bulletin February 2026 02-beF 02-rpA 02-nuJ 02-guA 02-tcO 02-ceD 12-beF 12-rpA 12-nuJ 12-guA 12-tcO 12-ceD 22-beF 22-rpA 22-nuJ 22-guA 22-tcO 22-ceD 32-beF 32-rpA 32-nuJ 32-guA 32-tcO 32-ceD 42-beF 42-rpA 42-nuJ 42-guA 42-tcO 42-ceD 52-beF 52-rpA 52-nuJ 52-guARetail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications ARTICLE Limitations and Scope for future Work: This Table 3: Regression Results: GARCH Model article examines a more aggregated picture of temporal Sample Period: Feb-20 to Jul-25 (1) (2) and broader sub-groupwise sources of headline Mean Equation Dependent Variable: π t inflation volatility. However, inflation volatility can π t -0.19 ∆* -0.24** –1 (0.07) (0.04) emanate from dis-aggregate sources often rooted ∆ σ 0.578 t in product-specific (based on perishability), spatial (0.13) ∆ (production versus consumption centres and supply γ 0.97** t (0.04) chains), and temporal (weather related anomalies) ∆ σ t × ΔG t -0.21** characteristics. Future work could incorporate a more (0.01) ∆ disaggregated approach focusing on these key drivers γ× ΔG -0.13 t t (0.43) of volatility. ∆ α 0.51 0.18 (0.43) (0.79) IV. Conclusion Variance Equation Dependent Variable: h t The analysis reveals that much of the volatility σ 0.22** t (0.03) in headline inflation emanates from the vegetables, ∆ γ 0.54** driven by sharp and sporadic shocks to 'Tomato– t (0.00) ∆ Onion–Potato' (TOP) prices and amplified by spillovers σ× ΔG -0.10* t t (0.08) from ‘ex-TOP’ vegetables. Further, the headline ∆ γ× ΔG -0.04 inflation volatility moderated during the period from t t (0.60) ∆ 2016–2025, even in the face of substantial supply- ρ 2.29** 2.65** (0.00) (0.00) side shocks. The decline in volatility since 2021–2022 ARCH/GARCH is closely associated with a reduction in sectoral ARCH (1) 0.12 0.20* covariance and sectoral price shocks no longer broadly (0.23) (0.08) propagate across the inflation basket. This indicates GARCH (1) 0.35 0.28 (0.14) (0.11) that under the FIT regime, inflation expectations p-values are in brackets and are robust (Huber–White type); * p<0.1, remain anchored. The regression analyses suggest ** p<0.05 Sources: MoSPI and Authors’ estimates. that while cross-sectional volatility is the key driver of temporal inflation variability, its adverse effects are volatility on headline inflation. In the variance significantly mitigated by supply-side interventions equation, as expected, cross-sectional volatility is by the government (such as buffer stock releases, positive and statistically significant, confirming that trade adjustments, and import facilitation). In relative price dispersion magnifies the temporal particular, these interventions have been effective not inflation variability. Here again, the interaction with only in dampening immediate inflationary pressures supply-side measures is negative and significant, but also in curbing the volatility in inflation. For an implying that interventions were successful in emerging economy like India, where food accounts for containing the inflation volatility. Taken together, a large share in CPI basket and food prices are highly these findings reflect the food supply management vulnerable to weather shocks and supply disruptions, measures by GoI not only successfully muted the these findings carry important policy implications – inflationary effects of adverse supply-side shocks but price stability can be achieved efficiently by effective also prevented the volatility spillovers. monetary and fiscal coordination. RBI Bulletin February 2026 75ARTICLE Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications References Patra, M. D., J. K. Khundrakpam, and A. T. George, (2014), “Post-Global Crisis Inflation Dynamics in Ball, L. and N G Mankiw (1995). Relative-price Changes India: What has Changed?” in Shekhar Shah, Barry as Aggregate Supply Shocks, Quarterly Journal of Bosworth and Arvind Panagariya eds. India Policy Economics, Vol 110, No 1, pp 161–93. Forum 2013-14, Volume 10, Sage Publications, July. Bhattacharya, R., and Gupta, A. S. (2015). Food Inflation Patra, M. D., John, J., and George, A. T. (2024a). Are in India: Causes and Consequences. National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. Working Paper, 151. Food Prices the ‘True’ Core of India’s Inflation?. RBI Bulletin, January 2024. Borio, C., Lombardi, M., Yetman, J., and Zakrajšek, E. (2023). The two-regime View of Inflation. BIS Papers. Patra, M. D., John, J., and George, A. T. (2024b). Are Food Prices Spilling Over?. RBI Bulletin, August 2024. Cecchetti, S., and Moessner, R. (2008). Commodity Prices and Inflation Dynamics. BIS Quarterly Review. Patra, M., Bhattacharyya, I., and John, J. (2024c). Pushing Back Post-pandemic Price Pressures: A Diebold, F. X., and Yilmaz, K. (2012). Better to Give Monetary-Fiscal Symphony. Economic and Political than to Receive: Predictive Directional Measurement Weekly, 59. of Volatility Spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57–66. Roy, R., Gupta, S., Wardhan, H., Sarkar, S., et al. (2024). Vegetables Inflation in India: A Study of Tomato, Dua, P., and Goel, N. (2021). Determinants of Inflation Onion, and Potato (TOP). RBI Working Paper Series in India: A Structuralist Approach. Delhi School of 08/2024. Economics Working Paper. Sasmal, J. (2015). Uneven Growth and Food Price Gulati, A., and Saini, S. (2013). Taming Food Inflation in India. ICRIER Working Paper No. 279. Inflation in India: A CGE Approach. Economic Modelling. Gulati, A., and Wardhan, H. (2019). Post-Harvest Losses and Value Chain Inefficiencies in India. Singh, N., and Shandilya, L. K. (2025). Impact of ICRIER. Weather Anomalies on Vegetable Prices in India. RBI Bulletin, May 2025. Kishore, V., and Shekhar, H. (2022). Extreme Weather Events and Vegetable Inflation in India. Economic Walsh, J. P. (2011). Reconsidering the Role of Food and Political Weekly, Vol LVII Nos 44 and 45. Prices in Inflation. IMF Working Paper 11/71. 76 RBI Bulletin February 2026Retail Inflation Volatility in India: Sources, Determinants, and Implications ARTICLE Annex Table 1: Some major supply-side measures by Government of India in Food Commodities since 20236 Time Commodity Action Implementing Agencies 2023 (Ongoing) Pulses Tur and urad under ‘Free Import Category’; 0 per cent import duty Department of Consumer Affairs (DoCA) on tur and urad 2023 Pulses Stock limits imposed on tur and urad under Essential Commodities DoCA, State Governments Act 2023 Chana Chana buffer released as ‘Bharat Dal’; sold at Rs. 60/kg (1kg) and NAFED, NCCF, Kendriya Bhandar, DoCA Rs. 55/kg (bulk). The prices were revised in late 2024. 2023 (Ongoing) Multiple Use of Price Stabilisation Fund (PSF) for buffer procurement and DoCA, NAFED, NCCF subsidised retail July 2023 Tomato Procurement from AP, Karnataka, Maharashtra during supply NAFED, NCCF disruption Aug 2023 Tomato Retail sale launched at Rs. 90/kg, later reduced to Rs. 40/kg via DoCA, NAFED, NCCF mobile vans Aug 2023 Onion MEP of $800/ton imposed to curb exports DGFT, Ministry of Commerce Sep 2023 Onion Onion buffer stock raised to 5 LMT; retail sales launched at DoCA, NAFED, NCCF Rs. 35/kg Oct 2023 Onion Distribution via Railways, e-commerce, and mobile vans DoCA, Indian Railways, NCCF, NAFED Oct 2023 Rice Export ban on non-basmati rice; MEP of $950/ton on basmati rice DGFT, Ministry of Commerce Nov 2023 Wheat ‘Bharat Atta’ launched at Rs. 27.50/kg DoCA, FCI, NAFED, NCCF, Kendriya Bhandar Nov 2023 - Wheat Weekly e-auctions under OMSS(D); 101.5 LMT sale targeted FCI, DoCA Mar 2024 Sep 2024 Onion Onion buffer sales resumed; retail price capped at Rs. 35/kg DoCA, NCCF, NAFED Sep–Oct 2024 Onion Extended distribution via Railways, e-commerce, cooperatives DoCA, Railways, NCCF, NAFED, State Govts Dec 2024 and Wheat Further revised down the stock limit on wheat. Stock limits DoCA, FCI May 2025 extended till Mar-26 during May-25 6 NAFED: National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Ltd. NCCF: National Cooperative Consumers’ Federation of India Ltd. DGFT: Directorate General of Foreign Trade FCI: Food Corporation of India Sources: 1. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1975040 2. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2054873 3. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2065722 RBI Bulletin February 2026 77CURRENT STATISTICS Select Economic Indicators Reserve Bank of India Money and Banking Prices and Production Government Accounts and Treasury Bills Financial Markets External Sector Payment and Settlement Systems Occasional SeriesCURRENT STATISTICS Contents No. Title Page 1 Select Economic Indicators 81 Reserve Bank of India 2 RBI – Liabilities and Assets 82 3 Liquidity Operations by RBI 83 4 Sale/ Purchase of U.S. Dollar by the RBI 84 4A Maturity Breakdown (by Residual Maturity) of Outstanding Forwards of RBI (US$ Million) 85 5 RBI's Standing Facilities 85 Money and Banking 6 Money Stock Measures 86 7 Sources of Money Stock (M) 87 3 8 Monetary Survey 88 9 Liquidity Aggregates 89 10 Reserve Bank of India Survey 90 11 Reserve Money – Components and Sources 90 12 Commercial Bank Survey 91 13 Scheduled Commercial Banks' Investments 91 14 Business in India – All Scheduled Banks and All Scheduled Commercial Banks 92 15 Deployment of Gross Bank Credit by Major Sectors 93 16 Industry-wise Deployment of Gross Bank Credit 94 17 State Co-operative Banks Maintaining Accounts with the Reserve Bank of India 95 18 (a) Flow of Financial Resources to Commercial Sector in India 96 18 (b) Outstanding Credit to Commercial Sector in India 97 Prices and Production 19 Consumer Price Index (Base: 2024=100) 98 20 Other Consumer Price Indices 98 21 Monthly Average Price of Gold and Silver in Mumbai 98 22 Wholesale Price Index 99 23 Index of Industrial Production (Base: 2011-12=100) 103 Government Accounts and Treasury Bills 24 Union Government Accounts at a Glance 103 25 Treasury Bills – Ownership Pattern 104 26 Auctions of Treasury Bills 104 Financial Markets 27 Daily Call Money Rates 105 28 Certificates of Deposit 106 29 Commercial Paper 106 RBI Bulletin February 2026 79CURRENT STATISTICS No. Title Page 30 Average Daily Turnover in Select Financial Markets 106 31 New Capital Issues by Non-Government Public Limited Companies 107 External Sector 32 Foreign Trade 108 33 Foreign Exchange Reserves 108 34 Non-Resident Deposits 108 35 Foreign Investment Inflows 109 36 Outward Remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for Resident Individuals 109 37 Indices of Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the Indian Rupee 110 38 External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) – Registrations 111 39(a) Invoicing in INR of Exports of Goods and Software and Imports of Goods from/to India 112 39(b) Settlement in INR of Exports of Goods and Software and Imports of Goods from/to India 112 40 India’s Overall Balance of Payments (US $ Million) 113 41 India's Overall Balance of Payments (` Crore) 114 42 Standard Presentation of BoP in India as per BPM6 (US $ Million) 115 43 Standard Presentation of BoP in India as per BPM6 (` Crore) 116 44 India’s International Investment Position 117 Payment and Settlement Systems 45 Payment System Indicators 118 Occasional Series 46 Small Savings 120 47 Ownership Pattern of Central and State Governments Securities 121 48 Combined Receipts and Disbursements of the Central and State Governments 122 49 Financial Accommodation Availed by State Governments under various Facilities 123 50 Investments by State Governments 124 51 Market Borrowings of State Governments 125 52 (a) Flow of Financial Assets and Liabilities of Households - Instrument-wise 126 52 (b) Stocks of Financial Assets and Liabilities of Households- Select Indicators 129 Notes: .. = Not available. – = Nil/Negligible. P = Preliminary/Provisional. PR = Partially Revised. 80 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 1: Select Economic Indicators 2024-25 2025-26 Item 2024-25 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 1 2 3 4 5 1 Real Sector (% Change) 1.1 GVA at Basic Prices 7.3 6.5 5.8 7.6 8.1 1.1.1 Agriculture 3.1 1.5 4.1 3.7 3.5 1.1.2 Industry 5.8 7.8 2.1 5.8 7.9 1.1.3 Services 8.8 7.2 7.4 9.0 9.0 1.1a Final Consumption Expenditure 6.8 7.0 6.1 7.1 6.5 1.1b Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7.8 6.7 6.7 7.8 7.3 2024 2025 2024-25 Nov. Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 5 1.2 Index of Industrial Production 4. 0 5. 0 3 . 7 7 . 2 7 . 8 2 Money and Banking (% Change) 2.1 Scheduled Commercial Banks 2.1.1 Deposits 10.3 10.7 9.8 10.2 12.7 2.1.2 Credit # 11.0 10.6 11.2 11.5 14.5 2.1.2.1 Non-food Credit # 11.0 10.6 11.1 11.4 14.4 2.1.3 Investment in Govt. Securities 9. 7 8. 4 10 . 1 5 . 3 4 . 4 2.2 Money Stock Measures 2.2.1 Reserve Money (M0) 4.3 7.1 4.9 1.6 2.9 2.2.2 Broad Money (M3) 9.4 10.8 9.0 9.9 12.1 3 Ratios (%) 3.1 Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00 4.50 4.25 3.25 3.00 3.2 Statutory Liquidity Ratio 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 3.3 Cash-Deposit Ratio 4.3 5.1 4.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 Credit-Deposit Ratio 80.8 79.5 80.4 80.5 81.7 3.5 Incremental Credit-Deposit Ratio # 86.1 69.8 82.6 76.6 91.2 3.6 Investment-Deposit Ratio 29.7 29.7 29.9 28.4 27.7 3.7 Incremental Investment-Deposit Ratio 28.1 28.1 30.8 11.2 8.2 4 Interest Rates (%) 4.1 Policy Repo Rate 6.25 6.50 6.50 5.50 5.25 4.2 Fixed Reverse Repo Rate 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 4.3 Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) Rate * 6.00 6.25 6.25 5.25 5.00 4.4 Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate 6.50 6.75 6.75 5.75 5.50 4.5 Bank Rate 6.50 6.75 6.75 5.75 5.50 4.6 Base Rate 9.10/10.40 9.10/10.40 9.10/10.40 8.35/10.00 8.35/10.00 4.7 MCLR (Overnight) 8.15/8.45 8.15/8.45 8.15/8.45 7.80/7.95 7.80/7.95 4.8 Term Deposit Rate >1 Year 6.00/7.25 6.00/7.25 6.00/7.25 5.85/6.60 5.85/6.60 4.9 Savings Deposit Rate 2.70/3.00 2.70/3.00 2.70/3.00 2.50/2.50 2.50/2.50 4.10 Call Money Rate (Weighted Average) 6.35 6.70 6.71 5.45 5.43 4.11 91-Day Treasury Bill (Primary) Yield 6.52 6.49 6.55 5.36 5.26 4.12 182-Day Treasury Bill (Primary) Yield 6.52 6.66 6.70 5.52 5.48 4.13 364-Day Treasury Bill (Primary) Yield 6.47 6.65 6.69 5.53 5.54 4.14 10-Year G-Sec Par Yield (FBIL) 6.62 6.79 6.76 6.55 6.67 5 Reference Rate and Forward Premia 5.1 INR-US$ Spot Rate (Rs. Per Foreign Currency) 85.5 8 84.5 0 85.5 9 89.4 6 89.8 3 5.2 INR-Euro Spot Rate (Rs. Per Foreign Currency) 92.32 89.36 89.11 103.63 105.85 5.3 Forward Premia of US$ 1-month (%) 3.12 1.94 3.70 2.15 5.24 3-month (%) 2.56 1.98 2.91 2.06 3.52 6-month (%) 2.28 2.18 2.61 2.21 3.08 6 Inflation (%) 6.1 All India Consumer Price Index 4.6 5.5 5.2 0.5 1.2 6.2 Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers 3.39 3.9 3.5 2.6 3.1 6.3 Wholesale Price Index 2.3 2.2 2.6 -0.1 0.8 6.3.1 Primary Articles 5.2 5.5 6.0 -2.5 0.2 6.3.2 Fuel and Power -1.3 -4.0 -2.6 -2.3 -2.3 6.3.3 Manufactured Products 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.8 7 Foreign Trade (% Change) 7.1 Imports 6.9 16.8 2.7 -1.9 8.7 7.2 Exports 0. 1 -5. 3 -1 . 5 19 . 0 1 . 8 Note : Financial Benchmark India Pvt. Ltd. (FBIL) has commenced publication of the G-Sec benchmarks with effect from March 31, 2018 as per RBI circularFMRD.DIRD. 7/14.03.025/2017-18 dated March 31, 2018. FBIL has started dissemination of reference rates w.e.f. July 10, 2018. #: Bank credit growth and related ratios for all fortnights from December 3, 2021 to November 18, 2022 are adjusted for past reporting errors by select scheduled commercial banks (SCBs). Data include the impact of merger of a non-bank with a bank w.e.f. July 1, 2023. As per the Banking Laws (Amendment) Act, 2025, the definition of fortnight has been revised fr om alternate Friday s to 15th and last cal e ndar day of a mont h , w.e.f. December 15, 2025. *: As per Press Release No. 2022-2023/41 dated April 08, 2022. RBI Bulletin February 2026 81CURRENT STATISTICS Reserve Bank of India No. 2: RBI - Liabilities and Assets * (₹ Crore) Item As on the Last Friday/ Friday 2025-26 2025 2026 Jan. Jan. 02 Jan. 09 Jan. 16 Jan. 23 Jan. 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 Issue Department 1.1 Liabilities 1.1.1 Notes in Circulation 3683836 3564965 3890959 3928244 3942195 3960191 3957204 1.1.2 Notes held in Banking Department 11 12 13 11 16 14 15 1.1/1.2 Total Liabilities (Total Notes Issued) or Assets 3683847 3564977 3890972 3928255 3942212 3960205 3957219 1.2 Assets 1.2.1 Gold 235379 217109 355814 360705 378440 401346 449050 1.2.2 Foreign Securities 3448129 3347525 3534589 3567077 3563355 3558533 3507886 1.2.3 Rupee Coin 340 343 569 473 416 326 283 1.2.4 Government of India Rupee Securities - - - - - - - 2 Banking Department 2.1 Liabilities 2.1.1 Deposits 1709285 1446595 1412760 1492117 1508674 1627682 1706143 2.1.1.1 Central Government 100 101 101 100 100 100 100 2.1.1.2 Market Stabilisation Scheme - - - - - - - 2.1.1.3 State Governments 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 2.1.1.4 Scheduled Commercial Banks 943060 924083 775690 734446 770438 755585 765515 2.1.1.5 Scheduled State Co-operative Banks 7776 7772 6883 6357 7818 7289 6993 2.1.1.6 Non-Scheduled State Co-operative Banks 5963 4567 4390 4425 4354 4256 4275 2.1.1.7 Other Banks 46963 46275 37286 37587 37617 37926 37678 2.1.1.8 Others 593085 362067 475769 574109 538516 673647 723695 2.1.1.9 Financial Institution Outside India 112296 101688 112599 135051 149788 148836 167843 2.1.2 Other Liabilities 2150508 2034572 2806303 2810382 2898169 3045272 3234854 2.1/2.2 Total Liabilities or Assets 3859793 3481167 4219063 4302499 4406843 4672954 4940997 2.2 Assets 2.2.1 Notes and Coins 11 12 13 11 17 14 15 2.2.2 Balances Held Abroad 1413591 1344426 1473104 1428062 1558765 1646721 1694337 2.2.3 Loans and Advances 2.2.3.1 Central Government - - - - - - - 2.2.3.2 State Governments 26284 19332 35042 13012 20162 16817 13448 2.2.3.3 Scheduled Commercial Banks 251984 256989 20841 121580 885 76369 136350 2.2.3.4 Scheduled State Co-op.Banks - - - - - - - 2.2.3.5 Industrial Dev. Bank of India - - - - - - - 2.2.3.6 NABARD - - - - - - - 2.2.3.7 EXIM Bank - - - - - - - 2.2.3.8 Others 36426 20988 17374 19552 13200 14413 15965 2.2.3.9 Financial Institution Outside India 111768 101053 112632 135094 149917 148940 167680 2.2.4 Bills Purchased and Discounted 2.2.4.1 Internal - - - - - - - 2.2.4.2 Government Treasury Bills - - - - - - - 2.2.5 Investments 1560630 1319974 1883381 1899355 1945654 2009748 2065618 2.2.6 Other Assets 459101 418394 676675 685833 718242 759932 847584 2.2.6.1 Gold 429510 396899 647699 656602 688886 730583 817420 82 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 3: Liquidity Operations by RBI (₹ Crore) Date Standing OMO (Outright) Net Injection (+)/ Liquidity Absorption (-) Liquidity Adjustment Facility Facilities (1+3+5+7+9-2-4-6 -8) Sale Purchase Variable Variable Reverse Rate Repo Rate MSF SDF Repo Reverse Repo Repo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dec. 1, 2025 - - - 56935 808 212277 -522 - - -268926 Dec. 2, 2025 - - - 50017 780 173009 -1359 - - -223605 Dec. 3, 2025 - - - - 806 158529 - - - -157723 Dec. 4, 2025 - - - 72377 810 146034 - - - -217601 Dec. 5, 2025 - - - 100024 2101 139697 -270 - - -237890 Dec. 6, 2025 - - - - 523 117007 - - - -116484 Dec. 7, 2025 - - - - 332 120448 - - - -120116 Dec. 8, 2025 - - - - 2586 161952 - - - -159366 Dec. 9, 2025 - - - - 1014 194103 270 - - -192819 Dec. 10, 2025 - - - - 946 175972 - - - -175026 Dec. 11, 2025 - - - - 2361 195055 697 - - -191997 Dec. 12, 2025 - - - - 2154 224663 - - 50000 -172509 Dec. 13, 2025 - - - - 2709 169149 9599 - - -156841 Dec. 14, 2025 - - - - 2868 167254 -205 - - -164591 Dec. 15, 2025 - - 24969 - 2694 156385 -10103 - - -138825 Dec. 16, 2025 - - 127170 - 5418 105016 -20 - - 27553 Dec. 17, 2025 - - 57175 - 354 151004 1675 - - -91800 Dec. 18, 2025 - - 50053 - 4354 136767 - - - -82360 Dec. 19, 2025 - - - - 314 125711 484 - 50000 -74913 Dec. 20, 2025 - - - - 7248 111526 - - - -104278 Dec. 21, 2025 - - - - 2173 94924 - - - -92751 Dec. 22, 2025 - - 15507 - 3452 76861 - - - -57902 Dec. 23, 2025 - - 112655 - 412 179720 28 - - -66625 Dec. 24, 2025 - - 87347 - 696 120117 357 - 4155 -27562 Dec. 25, 2025 - - - - 360 112877 - - - -112517 Dec. 26, 2025 - - 203028 - 504 151649 - - - 51883 Dec. 27, 2025 - - - - 226 130817 - - - -130591 Dec. 28, 2025 - - - - 277 132680 - - - -132403 Dec. 29, 2025 - - - - 3413 145638 -10 - - -142235 Dec. 30, 2025 - - 143718 - 1203 147105 6 - 50000 47822 Dec. 31, 2025 - - 30770 - 1936 204547 - - - -171841 RBI Bulletin February 2026 83CURRENT STATISTICS No. 4: Sale/ Purchase of U.S. Dollar by the RBI i) Operations in onshore / offshore OTC segment Item 2024 2025 2024-25 Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 1 Net Purchase/ Sale of Foreign Currency (US $ Million) (1.1-1.2) -34511 -15150 -9710 -10020 1.1 Purchase (+) 364200 53898 14350 18330 1.2 Sale (–) 398711 69048 24060 28350 2 ₹ equivalent at contract rate (₹ Crores) -291233 -128753 -85402 -88548 3 Cumulative (over end-March) (US $ Million) -34511 -36106 -43289 -53309 (₹ Crore) -291233 -306406 -381708 -470256 4 Outstanding Net Forward Sales (-)/ Purchase (+) at the end of month (US -84345 -67938 -66045 -62353 $ Million) ii) Operations in currency futures segment Item 2024 2025 2024-25 Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 1 Net Purchase/ Sale of Foreign Currency (US $ Million) (1.1-1.2) 0 0 0 0 1.1 Purchase (+) 31415 3552 2583 2012 1.2 Sale (–) 31415 3552 2583 2012 2 Outstanding Net Currency Futures Sales (-)/ Purchase (+) at the end of 0 -3450 -1150 -691 month (US $ Million) 84 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 4 A : Maturity Breakdown (by Residual Maturity) of Outstanding Forwards of RBI (US $ Million) Item As on December 31 , 2025 Long (+) Short (-) Net (1-2) 1 2 3 1. Upto 1 month 0 20260 -20260 2. More than 1 month and upto 3 months 0 5975 -5975 3. More than 3 months and upto 1 year 0 4395 -4395 4. More than 1 year 0 31723 -31723 Total (1+2+3+4) 0 62353 -62353 No. 5: RBI’s Standing Facilities (₹ Crore) Item As on the Last Reporting Fortnights 2024-25 2025 2026 Jan. 24 Aug. 22 Sep. 19 Oct. 31 Nov. 28 Dec. 31 Jan. 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 MSF 9961 3232 1818 310 5489 2144 1936 2260 2 Export Credit Refinance for Scheduled Banks 2.1 Limit - - - - - - - - 2.2 Outstanding - - - - - - - - 3 Liquidity Facility for PDs 3.1 Limit 9900 9900 14900 14900 14900 14900 14900 14900 3.2 Outstanding 9517 9556 10985 10319 11518 9637 10788 13252 4 Others 4.1 Limit 76000 76000 76000 76000 76000 76000 76000 76000 4.2 Outstanding - - - - - - - - 5 Total Outstanding (1+2.2+3.2+4.2) 19478 12788 12803 10629 17007 11781 12724 15512 RBI Bulletin February 2026 85CURRENT STATISTICS Money and Banking No. 6: Money Stock Measures (₹ Crore) Item Outstanding as on March 31/last reporting Fortnights of the month/ reporting Fortnights 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. 27 Nov. 28 Dec. 15 Dec. 31 1 2 3 4 5 1 Currency with the Public (1.1 + 1.2 + 1.3 – 1.4) 3630751 3459977 3772033 3820476 3828361 1.1 Notes in Circulation 3687816 3525519 3827317 3873968 3883627 1.2 Circulation of Rupee Coin 35889 34940 38812 38978 39152 1.3 Circulation of Small Coins 743 743 743 743 743 1.4 Cash on Hand with Banks 93696 101225 94838 93213 95162 2 Deposit Money of the Public 2953329 2812342 3276126 3180123 3537656 2.1 Demand Deposits with Banks 2840023 2710713 3158233 3065541 3422658 2.2 'Other' Deposits with Reserve Bank 113307 101629 117894 114582 114999 3 M1 (1 + 2) 6584081 6272318 7048159 7000599 7366017 4 Post Office Saving Bank Deposits 213981 204701 224085 224085 224085 5 M2 (3 + 4) 6798062 6477019 7272244 7224684 7590102 6 Time Deposits with Banks 20702508 20307146 22088554 22057742 22432527 7 M3 (3 + 6) 27286589 26579464 29136713 29058340 29798544 8 Total Post Office Deposits 1458844 1404663 1575869 1575869 1575869 9 M4 (7 + 8) 28745433 27984127 30712582 30634209 31374413 86 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 7 : Sources of Money Stock (M) 3 (₹ Crore) Sources Outstanding as on March 31/last reporting Fortnights of the month/reporting Fortnights 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. 27 Nov. 28 Dec. 15 Dec. 31 1 2 3 4 5 1 Net Bank Credit to Government 8510825 7901119 8849635 8814395 8750686 1.1 RBI’s net credit to Government (1.1.1–1.1.2) 1508105 1000891 1644157 1612903 1545561 1.1.1 Claims on Government 1591591 1276034 1751645 1806900 1898852 1.1.1.1 Central Government 1558903 1254193 1732679 1778025 1882558 1.1.1.2 State Governments 32688 21841 18966 28875 16294 1.1.2 Government deposits with RBI 83485 275143 107488 193996 353291 1.1.2.1 Central Government 83443 275101 107445 193954 353248 1.1.2.2 State Governments 42 42 42 42 42 1.2 Other Banks’ Credit to Government 7002720 6900228 7205477 7201492 7205125 2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 19068129 18529356 20338419 20506634 21144789 2.1 RBI’s credit to commercial sector 38246 10519 11701 11439 20322 2.2 Other banks’ credit to commercial sector 19029883 18518837 20326717 20495194 21124468 2.2.1 Bank credit by commercial banks 18243972 17743037 19529443 19694564 20320788 2.2.2 Bank credit by co-operative banks 766659 757258 776466 779863 782433 2.2.3 Investments by commercial and co-operative banks in other securities 19252 18541 20808 20767 21247 3 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector (3.1 + 3.2) 6148527 5801239 6544991 6688751 6585472 3.1 RBIs net foreign exchange assets (3.1.1 - 3.1.2) 5550947 5324382 5957943 6101703 5998424 3.1.1 Gross foreign assets 5550956 5324384 5957940 6101694 5998425 3.1.2 Foreign liabilities 9 2 -3 -9 0 3.2 Other banks’ net foreign exchange assets 597580 476857 587048 587048 587048 4 Government’s Currency Liabilities to the Public 36632 35683 39555 39721 39895 5 Banking Sector’s Net Non-monetary Liabilities 6477524 5687933 6635886 6991160 6722299 5.1 Net non-monetary liabilities of RBI 2147427 1891177 2654752 2810781 2769495 5.2 Net non-monetary liabilities of other banks (residual) 4330098 3796756 3981134 4180379 3952804 M₃(1+2+3+4–5) 27286589 26579464 29136713 29058340 29798544 RBI Bulletin February 2026 87CURRENT STATISTICS No. 8: Monetary Survey (₹ Crore) Item Outstanding as on March 31/last reporting Fortnights of the month/reporting Fortnights 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. 27 Nov. 28 Dec. 15 Dec. 31 1 2 3 4 5 Monetary Aggregates NM₁ (1.1+1.2.1+1.3) 6584081 6272318 7048159 7000599 7366017 NM₂ (NM₁ + 1.2.2.1) 15768688 15282471 16845174 16781342 17316449 NM₃ (NM₂ +1.2.2.2 + 1.4 = 2.1 + 2.2 + 2.3 – 2.4 – 2.5) 27909568 27249981 29698502 29577875 30303667 1 Components 1.1 Currency with the Public 3630751 3459977 3772033 3820476 3828361 1.2 Aggregate Deposits of Residents 23250261 22733275 24929376 24800525 25534730 1.2.1 Demand Deposits 2840023 2710713 3158233 3065541 3422658 1.2.2 Time Deposits of Residents 20410239 20022562 21771143 21734984 22112072 1.2.2.1 Short-term Time Deposits 9184607 9010153 9797014 9780743 9950433 1.2.2.1.1 Certificates of Deposits (CDs) 527375 499061 576412 554411 572678 1.2.2.2 Long-term Time Deposits 11225631 11012409 11974129 11954241 12161640 1.3 'Other' Deposits with RBI 113307 101629 117894 114582 114999 1.4 Call/Term Funding from Financial Institutions 915248 955100 879199 842292 825578 2 Sources 2.1 Domestic Credit 28800727 27590850 30478174 30615348 31132873 2.1.1 Net Bank Credit to the Government 8510825 7901119 8849635 8814395 8750686 2.1.1.1 Net RBI credit to the Government 1508105 1000891 1644157 1612903 1545561 2.1.1.2 Credit to the Government by the Banking System 7002720 6900228 7205477 7201492 7205125 2.1.2 Bank Credit to the Commercial Sector 20289901 19689731 21628539 21800953 22382188 2.1.2.1 RBI Credit to the Commercial Sector 38246 10519 11701 11439 20322 2.1.2.2 Credit to the Commercial Sector by the Banking System 20251656 19679212 21616838 21789513 22361866 2.1.2.2.1 Other Investments ( Non-SLR Securities) 1208294 1146977 1271838 1273257 1222086 2.2 Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public 36632 35683 39555 39721 39895 2.3 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of the Banking Sector 5605462 5300371 6099038 6261070 6168522 2.3.1 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of the RBI 5550947 5324382 5957943 6101703 5998424 2.3.2 Net Foreign Currency Assets of the Banking System 54514 -24011 141095 159367 170098 2.4 Capital Account 4481184 4396739 5405272 5571132 5483625 2.5 Other items (net) 2052068 1280185 1512992 1767132 1553998 88 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 9: Liquidity Aggregates (₹ Crore) Aggregates 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 5 1 NM₃ 27896780 27249981 29532475 29698502 30303667 2 Postal Deposits 756787 739921 818598 826918 826918 3 L₁ ( 1 + 2) 28653567 27989902 30351073 30525420 31130585 4 Liabilities of Financial Institutions 95148 73559 123930 134011 133272 4.1 Term Money Borrowings 10 16 5 5 5 4.2 Certificates of Deposit 80810 59920 108215 118100 117150 4.3 Term Deposits 14328 13622 15711 15907 16117 5 L₂ (3 + 4) 28748715 28063460 30475003 30659431 31263857 6 Public Deposits with Non-Banking Financial Companies 121178 116921 .. .. 133871 7 L₃ (5 + 6) 28869893 28180381 .. .. 31397729 Note : Figures in the columns might not add up to the total due to rounding off of numbers. RBI Bulletin February 2026 89CURRENT STATISTICS No. 10: Reserve Bank of India Survey (₹ Crore) Item Outstanding as on March 31/last reporting Fortnights of the month/reporting Fortnights 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. 27 Nov. 28 Dec. 15 Dec. 31 1 2 3 4 5 1 Components 1.1 Currency in Circulation 3724448 3561202 3866872 3913689 3923523 1.2 Bankers’ Deposits with the RBI 991488 1000260 829653 796904 760614 1.2.1 Scheduled Commercial Banks 926001 939428 778275 747481 712617 1.3 ‘Other’ Deposits with the RBI 113307 101629 117894 114582 114999 Reserve Money (1.1 + 1.2 + 1.3 = 2.1 + 2.2 + 2.3 – 2.4 – 2.5) 4829243 4663090 4814418 4825175 4799135 2 Sources 2.1 RBI’s Domestic Credit 1389090 1194202 1471673 1494533 1530311 2.1.1 Net RBI credit to the Government 1508105 1000891 1644157 1612903 1545561 2.1.1.1 Net RBI credit to the Central Government (2.1.1.1.1 + 2.1.1.1.2 + 2.1.1.1.3 + 2.1.1.1.4 – 2.1.1.1.5) 1475460 979092 1625234 1584071 1529310 2.1.1.1.1 Loans and Advances to the Central Government - - - - - 2.1.1.1.2 Investments in Treasury Bills - - - - - 2.1.1.1.3 Investments in dated Government Securities 1558574 1253916 1732147 1777660 1881967 2.1.1.1.3.1 Central Government Securities 1558574 1253916 1732147 1777660 1881967 2.1.1.1.4 Rupee Coins 329 278 531 365 591 2.1.1.1.5 Deposits of the Central Government 83443 275101 107445 193954 353248 2.1.1.2 Net RBI credit to State Governments 32646 21798 18924 28832 16251 2.1.2 RBI’s Claims on Banks -157261 182792 -184186 -129810 -35572 2.1.2.1 Loans and Advances to Scheduled Commercial Banks -157261 182792 -184186 -129810 -35572 2.1.3 RBI’s Credit to Commercial Sector 38246 10519 11701 11439 20322 2.1.3.1 Loans and Advances to Primary Dealers 9182 8459 9637 8266 10788 2.1.3.2 Loans and Advances to NABARD - - - - - 2.2 Government’s Currency Liabilities to the Public 36632 35683 39555 39721 39895 2.3 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of the RBI 5550947 5324382 5957943 6101703 5998424 2.3.1 Gold 668162 566843 946227 1004524 1000011 2.3.2 Foreign Currency Assets 4882794 4757541 5011713 5097169 4998414 2.4 Capital Account 1875114 1803583 2434303 2596916 2527850 2.5 Other Items (net) 272313 87594 220449 213866 241645 No. 11: Reserve Money - Components and Sources (₹ Crore) Outstanding as on March 31/last reporting Item Fortnights of the month/reporting Fortnights 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. 27 Nov. 28 Dec. 15 Dec. 31 1 2 3 4 5 Reserve Money (1.1 + 1.2 + 1.3 = 2.1 + 2.2 + 2.3 + 2.4 + 2.5 – 2.6) 4829243 4663090 4814418 4825175 4799135 1 Components 1.1 Currency in Circulation 3724448 3561202 3866872 3913689 3923523 1.2 Bankers' Deposits with RBI 991488 1000260 829653 796904 760614 1.3 ‘Other’ Deposits with RBI 113307 101629 117894 114582 114999 2 Sources 2.1 Net Reserve Bank Credit to Government 1508105 1000891 1644157 1612903 1545561 2.2 Reserve Bank Credit to Banks -157261 182792 -184186 -129810 -35572 2.3 Reserve Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 38246 10519 11701 11439 20322 2.4 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 5550947 5324382 5957943 6101703 5998424 2.5 Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public 36632 35683 39555 39721 39895 2.6 Net Non- Monetary Liabilities of RBI 2147427 1891177 2654752 2810781 2769495 90 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 12: Commercial Bank Survey (₹ Crore) Item Outstanding as on last reporting Fortnights of the month/ reporting Fortnights of the month 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. 27 Nov. 28 Dec. 15 Dec. 31 1 2 3 4 5 1 Components 1.1 Aggregate Deposits of Residents 22288331 21778008 23942644 23809113 24537038 1.1.1 Demand Deposits 2698049 2569573 3013417 2919952 3274722 1.1.2 Time Deposits of Residents 19590283 19208435 20929227 20889160 21262316 1.1.2.1 Short-term Time Deposits 8815627 8643796 9418152 9400122 9568042 1.1.2.1.1 Certificates of Deposits (CDs) 527375 499061 576412 554411 572678 1.1.2.2 Long-term Time Deposits 10774655 10564639 11511075 11489038 11694274 1.2 Call/Term Funding from Financial Institutions 915248 955100 879199 842292 825578 2 Sources 2.1 Domestic Credit 26154974 25490460 27697336 27861542 28434470 2.1.1 Credit to the Government 6697298 6595249 6886017 6880904 6884483 2.1.2 Credit to the Commercial Sector 19457676 18895211 20811320 20980638 21549986 2.1.2.1 Bank Credit 18243972 17743037 19529443 19694564 20320788 2.1.2.1.1 Non-food Credit 18207441 17686899 19449642 19610614 20232815 2.1.2.2 Net Credit to Primary Dealers 13742 13661 18546 21325 15575 2.1.2.3 Investments in Other Approved Securities 630 498 455 454 500 2.1.2.4 Other Investments (in non-SLR Securities) 1199332 1138015 1262875 1264295 1213124 2.2 Net Foreign Currency Assets of Commercial Banks (2.2.1-2.2.2-2.2.3) 54514 -24011 141095 159367 170098 2.2.1 Foreign Currency Assets 529621 443646 607602 640031 646918 2.2.2 Non-resident Foreign Currency Repatriable Fixed Deposits 292270 284584 317411 322757 320455 2.2.3 Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings 182837 183074 149097 157907 156366 2.3 Net Bank Reserves (2.3.1+2.3.2-2.3.3) 791777 845902 1045332 958626 831651 2.3.1 Balances with the RBI 882415 939428 778275 747481 712617 2.3.2 Cash in Hand 81874 89267 82870 81335 83462 2.3.3 Loans and Advances from the RBI 172512 182792 -184186 -129810 -35572 2.4 Capital Account 2581900 2568985 2946799 2950045 2931605 2.5 Other items (net) (2.1+2.2+2.3-2.4-1.1-1.2) 1215785 1010259 1115120 1378085 1141997 2.5.1 Other Demand and Time Liabilities (net of 2.2.3) 878795 813552 906039 1126026 911657 2.5.2 Net Inter-Bank Liabilities (other than to PDs) 116551 130568 45080 54187 60256 No. 13: Scheduled Commercial Banks’ Investments (₹ Crore) Item As on 2024 2025 March 21, 2025 Dec. 27 Nov. 28 Dec. 15 Dec. 31 1 2 3 4 5 1 SLR Securities 6697928 6595747 6886472 6881358 6884983 2 Other Government Securities (Non-SLR) 165500 157389 162007 165975 170257 3 Commercial Paper 63163 60941 66570 63910 53160 4 Shares issued by 4.1 PSUs 13874 13264 14793 14702 14675 4.2 Private Corporate Sector 95984 97546 101278 103353 105182 4.3 Others 7664 7491 7486 7461 7099 5 Bonds/Debentures issued by 5.1 PSUs 130308 127702 134189 130737 134811 5.2 Private Corporate Sector 248138 232630 253873 251652 260398 5.3 Others 150000 157698 181118 177724 187208 6 Instruments issued by 6.1 Mutual funds 119867 92068 138013 142660 75549 6.2 Financial institutions 204865 191321 204674 206121 204785 Note: Data against column Nos. (1), (2) & (3) are Final and for column Nos. (4) & (5) data are Provisional. Data include the impact of merger of a non-bank with a bank w.e.f. July 1, 2023. As per the Banking Laws (Amendment) Act, 2025, the definition of fortnight has been revised from alternate Fridays to 15th and last calendar day of a month, w.e.f. December 15, 2025. RBI Bulletin February 2026 91CURRENT STATISTICS No. 14: Business in India - All Scheduled Banks and All Scheduled Commercial Banks (₹ Crore) Item As on the Last Reporting Friday (in case of March)/Last Friday/Last Day All Scheduled Banks All Scheduled Commercial Banks 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024-25 2024-25 Dec. Nov. Dec. Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Number of Reporting Banks 208 208 196 197 135 135 121 121 1 Liabilities to the Banking System 458011 461496 440488 464928 451305 456515 432607 456940 1.1 Demand and Time Deposits from Banks 315675 296174 330192 347494 309414 291575 322856 340111 1.2 Borrowings from Banks 112027 138393 78737 84135 111976 138334 78659 84010 1.3 Other Demand and Time Liabilities 30310 26929 31559 33299 29916 26606 31093 32820 2 Liabilities to Others 25053097 24491884 26719462 27289143 24557481 24014317 26193834 26751094 2.1 Aggregate Deposits 23055487 22522349 24764446 25374431 22580601 22062591 24259499 24857493 2.1.1 Demand 2748263 2617452 3063407 3327804 2698049 2569573 3012861 3274722 2.1.2 Time 20307224 19904896 21701039 22046627 19882552 19493019 21246638 21582771 2.2 Borrowings 920568 959775 884674 830784 915248 955100 879199 825578 2.3 Other Demand and Time Liabilities 1077042 1009761 1070342 1083928 1061632 996626 1055135 1068023 3 Borrowings from Reserve Bank 311466 244697 2144 168974 311466 244697 2144 168974 3.1 Against Usance Bills /Promissory Notes - - - - - - - - 3.2 Others 311466 244697 2144 168974 311466 244697 2144 168974 4 Cash in Hand and Balances with Reserve Bank 985044 1051004 879673 813199 964289 1028694 861146 796079 4.1 Cash in Hand 84399 91928 85542 85865 81874 89267 82870 83462 4.2 Balances with Reserve Bank 900645 959076 794131 727334 882415 939428 778275 712617 5 Assets with the Banking System 432645 410612 495495 503503 348496 339609 406073 412260 5.1 Balances with Other Banks 273720 271169 328462 336346 215801 216738 265093 271662 5.1.1 In Current Account 13239 16333 10617 17232 10619 13938 8538 14383 5.1.2 In Other Accounts 260481 254836 317844 319113 205182 202800 256555 257279 5.2 Money at Call and Short Notice 44772 30173 56085 54657 25838 18342 36427 36097 5.3 Advances to Banks 43856 42099 33165 37201 39504 40682 32470 35293 5.4 Other Assets 70296 67172 77783 75299 67353 63847 72083 69208 6 Investment 6850574 6747371 7058156 7054974 6697928 6595747 6886472 6884983 6.1 Government Securities 6842024 6739533 7044782 7044429 6697298 6595249 6886017 6884483 6.2 Other Approved Securities 8550 7839 13374 10545 630 498 455 500 7 Bank Credit 18708286 18194821 20013530 20811790 18243972 17743037 19529443 20320788 7a Food Credit 87145 106755 131775 139946 36531 56139 79801 87972 7.1 Loans, Cash-credits and Overdrafts 18370704 17870643 19639760 20404211 17909851 17422048 19157526 19915122 7.2 Inland Bills-Purchased 76523 73546 88953 97113 74963 72063 88732 96940 7.3 Inland Bills-Discounted 222320 212904 249024 272764 221059 211819 248008 271627 7.4 Foreign Bills-Purchased 15357 15770 13188 13827 15122 15551 12953 13616 7.5 Foreign Bills-Discounted 23382 21957 22605 23874 22977 21557 22225 23483 Note: Data in column Nos. (4) & (8) are Provisional Data include the impact of merger of a non-bank with a bank w.e.f. July 1, 2023. As per the Banking Laws (Amendment) Act, 2025, the definition of fortnight has been revised from alternate Fridays to 15th and last calendar day of a month, w.e.f. December 15, 2025. 92 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 15: Deployment of Gross Bank Credit by Major Sectors (₹ Crore) Outstanding as on Growth(%) Mar. 21, Financial 2024 2025 Y-o-Y Sector 2025 year so far Dec. 27 Nov. 28 Dec. 31 2025-26 2025 1 2 3 4 % % I. Bank Credit (II + III) 18243972 17743037 19527313 20322515 11.4 14.5 II. Food Credit 36531 56139 79801 87972 140.8 56.7 III. Non-food Credit 18207441 17686899 19447512 20234543 11.1 14.4 1. Agriculture & Allied Activities 2287060 2239028 2417050 2509224 9.7 12.1 2. Industry (Micro and Small, Medium and Large) 3985660 3893504 4219433 4413257 10.7 13.3 2.1 Micro and Small 798473 778529 952302 1020007 27.7 31.0 2.2 Medium 363245 350739 397098 422441 16.3 20.4 2.3 Large 2823942 2764237 2870032 2970809 5.2 7.5 3. Services 5093565 4905686 5359639 5654179 11.0 15.3 3.1 Transport Operators 261575 255608 276292 253187 -3.2 -0.9 3.2 Computer Software 32915 31582 40914 42275 28.4 33.9 3.3 Tourism, Hotels & Restaurants 83366 80492 92182 96721 16.0 20.2 3.4 Shipping 7304 7102 10675 10457 43.2 47.2 3.5 Aviation 46072 45998 48649 51012 10.7 10.9 3.6 Professional Services 195957 189579 202814 210379 7.4 11.0 3.7 Trade 1184550 1107395 1230778 1300841 9.8 17.5 3.7.1. Wholesale Trade¹ 646099 580890 657179 708140 9.6 21.9 3.7.2 Retail Trade 538451 526505 573600 592701 10.1 12.6 3.8 Commercial Real Estate 523264 512114 570144 590850 12.9 15.4 3.9 Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs)² of which, 1635102 1621001 1723493 1865190 14.1 15.1 3.9.1 Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) 323182 319955 346320 352976 9.2 10.3 3.9.2 Public Financial Institutions (PFIs) 228678 218657 253237 291503 27.5 33.3 3.10 Other Services³ 1123459 1054817 1163697 1233266 9.8 16.9 4. Personal Loans 5971696 5812624 6486418 6648250 11.3 14.4 4.1 Consumer Durables 23201 23794 23028 22569 -2.7 -5.1 4.2 Housing 3010477 2931739 3195341 3256351 8.2 11.1 4.3 Advances against Fixed Deposits 141842 141575 147076 163243 15.1 15.3 4.4 Advances to Individuals against share & bonds 10080 9791 9752 10194 1.1 4.1 4.5 Credit Card Outstanding 284366 291087 296070 294068 3.4 1.0 4.6 Education 137456 133139 149800 152789 11.2 14.8 4.7 Vehicle Loans 622793 613296 680536 714631 14.7 16.5 4.8 Loan against gold jewellery⁴ 206284 168128 358645 382706 85.5 127.6 4.9 Other Personal Loans 1535197 1500075 1626170 1651698 7.6 10.1 5. Priority Sector (Memo) (i) Agriculture & Allied Activities⁵ 2287794 2236648 2433930 2554979 11.7 14.2 (ii) Micro & Small Enterprises⁶ 2239409 2145252 2588509 2755699 23.1 28.5 (iii) Medium Enterprises⁷ 601451 575433 648766 679642 13.0 18.1 (iv) Housing 746651 751317 992100 1028285 37.7 36.9 (v) Education Loans 62826 62993 74051 77388 23.2 22.9 (vi) Renewable Energy 10325 8035 11555 11323 9.7 40.9 (vii) Social Infrastructure 1316 999 1060 1277 -3.0 27.8 (viii) Export Credit 12479 12455 11052 10749 -13.9 -13.7 (ix) Others 49552 55138 41797 42822 -13.6 -22.3 (x) Weaker Sections including net PSLC- SF/MF 1864606 1748608 1944735 2001782 7.4 14.5 Notes: (1) Data are provisional. Bank credit, Food credit and Non-food credit data are based on fortnightly Section-42 return, which covers all scheduled commercial banks (SCBs), while sectoral non-food credit data are based on sector-wise and industry-wise bank credit (SIBC) return, which covers select banks accounting for about 95 per cent of total non-food credit extended by all SCBs." (2) With effect from December 31, 2025, definition of last reporting fortnight has been changed to the last day of the month under the Banking Laws (Amendment) Act 2025. Accordingly, the y-o-y growth rates from December 2025 onwards are based on end-of-month data for the current year and data for the last reporting fortnight (as per old definition) for the corresponding month of the previous year. 1 Wholesale trade includes food procurement credit outside the food credit consortium. 2 NBFCs include HFCs, PFIs, Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), NBFCs engaged in gold loan and others. 3 “Other Services” include Mutual Fund (MFs), Banking and Finance other than NBFCs and MFs, and other services which are not indicated elsewhere under services. 4 Since May 2024, a bank has changed the classification of a category of agricultural loan into “Loans against gold jewellery” under retail segment. 5 “Agriculture and Allied Activities” under the priority sector also include priority sector lending certificates (PSLCs). 6 “Micro and Small Enterprises” under the priority sector include credit to micro and small enterprises in industry and services sectors and also include PSLCs. 7 “Medium Enterprises” under the priority sector include credit to medium enterprises in industry and services sectors. RBI Bulletin February 2026 93CURRENT STATISTICS No. 16: Industry-wise Deployment of Gross Bank Credit (₹ Crore) Outstanding as on Growth(%) Financial 2024 2025 Y-o-Y Mar. 21, year so far Industry 2025 Dec. 27 Nov. 28 Dec. 31 2025-26 2025 1 2 3 4 % % 2 Industries (2.1 to 2.19) 3985660 3893504 4219433 4413257 10.7 13.3 2.1 Mining & Quarrying (incl. Coal) 56818 53938 63042 64877 14.2 20.3 2.2 Food Processing 219525 211985 210297 236770 7.9 11.7 2.2.1 Sugar 28522 19889 15479 20369 -28.6 2.4 2.2.2 Edible Oils & Vanaspati 20927 21798 21197 24850 18.7 14.0 2.2.3 Tea 5084 6470 4962 5296 4.2 -18.1 2.2.4 Others 164992 163827 168659 186254 12.9 13.7 2.3 Beverage & Tobacco 35515 30671 37001 37450 5.4 22.1 2.4 Textiles 277267 264056 280594 295291 6.5 11.8 2.4.1 Cotton Textiles 107495 98417 101828 108972 1.4 10.7 2.4.2 Jute Textiles 4288 4340 4769 4967 15.8 14.4 2.4.3 Man-Made Textiles 49186 48667 49845 51060 3.8 4.9 2.4.4 Other Textiles 116298 112631 124151 130291 12.0 15.7 2.5 Leather & Leather Products 12980 12804 13363 13717 5.7 7.1 2.6 Wood & Wood Products 27826 26601 29023 30312 8.9 14.0 2.7 Paper & Paper Products 52848 51508 55634 57587 9.0 11.8 2.8 Petroleum, Coal Products & Nuclear Fuels 154179 139840 172308 194376 26.1 39.0 2.9 Chemicals & Chemical Products 267815 263645 292402 302682 13.0 14.8 2.9.1 Fertiliser 32011 31829 33023 34473 7.7 8.3 2.9.2 Drugs & Pharmaceuticals 88524 87821 92078 95548 7.9 8.8 2.9.3 Petro Chemicals 28797 27836 35752 36059 25.2 29.5 2.9.4 Others 118482 116160 131549 136601 15.3 17.6 2.10 Rubber, Plastic & their Products 103465 98914 106098 108654 5.0 9.8 2.11 Glass & Glassware 13443 12508 13490 13760 2.4 10.0 2.12 Cement & Cement Products 59753 61542 63202 64559 8.0 4.9 2.13 Basic Metal & Metal Product 433501 432757 478578 494162 14.0 14.2 2.13.1 Iron & Steel 300156 306185 325440 335076 11.6 9.4 2.13.2 Other Metal & Metal Product 133345 126572 153138 159086 19.3 25.7 2.14 All Engineering 240136 227081 274666 296171 23.3 30.4 2.14.1 Electronics 52863 50109 61109 68839 30.2 37.4 2.14.2 Others 187273 176971 213557 227332 21.4 28.5 2.15 Vehicles, Vehicle Parts & Transport Equipment 119450 115495 127141 137486 15.1 19.0 2.16 Gems & Jewellery 85814 87876 103392 110067 28.3 25.3 2.17 Construction 160037 152439 163802 171001 6.9 12.2 2.18 Infrastructure 1364369 1346090 1402230 1442457 5.7 7.2 2.18.1 Power 692160 662760 754948 782253 13.0 18.0 2.18.2 Telecommunications 123850 129505 111841 111963 -9.6 -13.5 2.18.3 Roads 334147 341683 338571 343718 2.9 0.6 2.18.4 Airports 9156 8733 6055 6426 -29.8 -26.4 2.18.5 Ports 5916 6282 7683 8186 38.4 30.3 2.18.6 Railways 13415 13158 8921 10102 -24.7 -23.2 2.18.7 Other Infrastructure 185726 183969 174211 179810 -3.2 -2.3 2.19 Other Industries 300921 303756 333171 341878 13.6 12.6 Note: With effect from December 31, 2025, definition of last reporting fortnight has been changed to the last day of the month under the Banking Laws (Amendment) Act 2025. Accordingly, the y-o-y growth rates from December 2025 onwards are based on end-of-month data for the current year and data for the last reporting fortnight (as per old definition) for the corresponding month of the previous year. 94 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 17: State Co-operative Banks Maintaining Accounts with the Reserve Bank of India (₹ Crore) Item As on Reporting Day 2024 2025 2024-25 Nov. 29 Sep. 19 Sep. 26 Oct. 03 Oct. 17 Oct. 31 Nov. 14 Nov. 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Number of Reporting Banks 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 1 Aggregate Deposits (2.1.1.2+2.2.1.2) 146871.0 138154.1 151034.0 148551.8 150775.4 152753.9 151855.9 150082.8 153247.4 2 Demand and Time Liabilities 2.1 Demand Liabilities 29215.6 26562.1 27597.3 27650.6 29425.1 27060.4 26385.0 27891.5 27456.8 2.1.1 Deposits 2.1.1.1 Inter-Bank 9022.9 6670.1 7310.3 7368.7 7963.4 7557.8 6223.1 6758.9 6058.8 2.1.1.2 Others 14063.9 13187.7 13625.5 13622.1 14507.1 13392.4 13407.9 14723.0 14397.7 2.1.2 Borrowings from Banks 700.0 1454.3 792.5 608.7 422.7 60.0 521.9 874.7 810.7 2.1.3 Other Demand Liabilities 5428.9 5249.9 5869.0 6051.0 6532.0 6050.2 6232.2 5534.9 6189.6 2.2 Time Liabilities 201100.7 176625.0 201723.4 200770.1 200264.8 203742.6 203386.8 203565.6 204259.5 2.2.1 Deposits 2.2.1.1 Inter-Bank 66874.3 50047.3 62785.7 61947.2 62396.4 62767.6 63251.3 66600.1 63747.4 2.2.1.2 Others 132807.1 124966.4 137408.6 134929.7 136268.3 139361.6 138448.0 135359.8 138849.7 2.2.2 Borrowings from Banks 643.9 651.9 611.2 611.2 610.4 610.4 610.4 610.4 610.4 2.2.3 Other Time Liabilities 775.4 959.5 917.9 3282.0 989.7 1003.0 1077.1 995.3 1052.1 3 Borrowing from Reserve Bank 699.5 999.5 1039.5 4 Borrowings from a notified bank / Government 126928.5 112111.7 115950.8 116165.0 115264.0 116571.4 118368.0 116858.6 114537.1 4.1 Demand 53459.8 45109.3 52968.9 52721.9 51600.6 53416.1 51539.0 51639.4 51408.3 4.2 Time 73468.7 67002.4 62981.9 63443.0 63663.4 63155.3 66829.0 65219.2 63128.8 5 Cash in Hand and Balances with Reserve Bank 13390.9 11145.5 11915.4 11251.0 11268.6 10312.4 10267.4 10556.4 9537.0 5.1 Cash in Hand 1052.1 821.1 944.9 785.4 777.4 807.4 856.3 840.0 847.3 5.2 Balance with Reserve Bank 12338.8 10324.4 10970.6 10465.7 10491.2 9505.0 9411.1 9716.4 8689.7 6 Balances with Other Banks in Current Account 1656.3 1118.1 1071.2 1372.6 1027.5 1074.1 2667.8 1000.7 1220.1 7 Investments in Government Securities 77220.1 75074.9 86633.1 85526.0 86105.5 84453.8 85525.4 84883.9 84862.8 8 Money at Call and Short Notice 26531.1 12457.8 23026.6 24402.8 21641.2 22712.7 21181.3 23692.4 23910.4 9 Bank Credit (10.1+11) 174828.8 166666.0 171716.7 171610.0 174205.9 174730.5 174327.4 175598.5 174894.0 10 Advances 10.1 Loans, Cash-Credits and Overdrafts 174590.4 166480.4 171600.4 171489.2 174067.9 174587.2 174150.0 175411.9 174724.0 10.2 Due from Banks 124607.6 111546.4 120618.4 120950.7 121547.8 122061.5 123042.1 123039.7 123414.0 11 Bills Purchased and Discounted 238.4 185.6 116.3 120.8 138.0 143.2 177.4 186.5 170.0 RBI Bulletin February 2026 95CURRENT STATISTICS (₹ Crore) 96 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ' RBI Bulletin February 2026 97CURRENT STATISTICS Prices and Production No. 19: Consumer Price Index (Base: 2024=100) Division 2025* Rural Urban Combined Rural Urban Combined Jan.25 Dec.25 Jan.26 (P) Jan.25 Dec.25 Jan.26 (P) Jan.25 Dec.25 Jan.26 (P) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 01. Food and beverages 102.3 102.9 102.5 101.9 103.9 103.9 101.8 104.4 104.3 101.9 104.1 104.0 02. Paan, tobacco and intoxicants 103.1 102.8 103.0 101.6 104.2 104.4 101.2 103.9 104.4 101.5 104.1 104.4 03. Clothing and footwear 105.0 103.9 104.6 103.1 106.4 106.6 102.5 104.7 104.8 102.9 105.8 105.9 04. Housing, water, electricity, gas and 101.6 101.2 101.3 100.8 102.1 102.1 100.3 101.8 102.0 100.5 101.9 102.0 other fuels 05. Furnishings, household equipment and 102.5 102.4 102.4 101.6 103.0 103.1 101.5 102.6 102.8 101.5 102.8 103.0 routine household maintenance 06. Health 102.8 103.3 103.0 101.6 103.6 103.7 101.9 104.1 104.2 101.7 103.8 103.9 07. Transport 100.9 100.8 100.8 100.6 100.6 100.7 100.6 100.6 100.6 100.6 100.6 100.6 08. Information and communication 103.5 103.1 103.4 103.3 103.5 103.5 102.9 103.0 103.0 103.1 103.3 103.3 09. Recreation, sport and culture 102.7 102.6 102.7 101.8 103.6 103.9 101.6 103.8 104.2 101.7 103.7 104.0 10. Education services 103.4 104.1 103.8 101.6 104.6 104.8 102.1 105.7 105.7 101.9 105.3 105.3 11. Restaurants and accommodation 103.8 104.7 104.3 102.7 104.7 104.8 102.8 106.3 106.6 102.8 105.5 105.7 services 13. Personal care, social protection and 108.2 108.4 108.3 102.9 116.6 123.1 103.2 116.4 122.1 103.0 116.5 122.6 miscellaneous goods and services All India General CPI 102.8 102.7 102.8 101.8 104.2 104.6 101.5 104.0 104.3 101.7 104.1 104.5 Source: National Statistical Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India. P: Provisional '*': Arithmetic mean of all monthly indices of calendar year 2025. No. 20: Other Consumer Price Indices Item Base Year Linking 2024-25 2024 2025 Factor Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers 2016 2.88 142.6 143.7 148.2 148.2 2 Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers 2019 9.69 - 137.1 137.4 137.1 3 Consumer Price Index for Rural Labourers 2019 9.78 - 136.9 137.3 137.0 Source: Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour and Employment, Government of India. CPI-AL and RL indices for 2024 (Base Year 2019) are calculated using the published inflation rates. No. 21: Monthly Average Price of Gold and Silver in Mumbai Item 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 1 Standard Gold (₹ per 10 grams) 75842 76195 122962 131172 2 Silver (₹ per kilogram) 89131 89265 155010 198182 Source: India Bullion & Jewellers Association Ltd., Mumbai for Gold and Silver prices in Mumbai. 98 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 22: Wholesale Price Index (Base: 2011-12 = 100) 2025 2026 Commodities Weight 2024-25 Jan. Nov. Dec.(P) Jan.(P) 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 ALL COMMODITIES 100.000 154.9 155.0 156.2 157.0 157.8 1.1 PRIMARY ARTICLES 22.618 192.5 189.7 192.9 194.2 193.9 1.1.1 FOOD ARTICLES 15.256 205.3 199.8 205.0 206.6 202.9 1.1.1.1 Food Grains (Cereals+Pulses) 3.462 210.1 213.2 205.3 205.9 206.3 1.1.1.2 Fruits & Vegetables 3.475 241.4 210.7 235.6 240.9 220.4 1.1.1.3 Milk 4.440 185.8 187.0 191.4 191.6 191.7 1.1.1.4 Eggs, Meat & Fish 2.402 173.4 174.7 176.7 176.7 181.1 1.1.1.5 Condiments & Spices 0.529 232.7 231.6 210.9 214.1 223.1 1.1.1.6 Other Food Articles 0.948 213.6 217.1 224.5 224.4 223.3 1.1.2 NON-FOOD ARTICLES 4.119 161.7 167.5 169.2 171.1 180.2 1.1.2.1 Fibres 0.839 161.4 161.5 164.4 166.9 173.8 1.1.2.2 Oil Seeds 1.115 181.5 183.4 203.3 209.9 218.7 1.1.2.3 Other non-food Articles 1.960 138.7 142.7 138.6 139.6 141.0 1.1.2.4 Floriculture 0.204 277.4 343.7 296.7 279.1 371.2 1.1.3 MINERALS 0.833 229.0 227.2 257.5 257.4 256.2 1.1.3.1 Metallic Minerals 0.648 219.2 216.3 252.4 252.3 251.1 1.1.3.2 Other Minerals 0.185 263.4 265.7 275.2 275.3 273.9 1.1.4 CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS 2.410 151.3 150.9 134.0 133.4 139.1 1.2 FUEL & POWER 13.152 150.0 152.0 146.4 148.3 145.9 1.2.1 COAL 2.138 135.6 135.6 136.1 137.0 138.0 1.2.1.1 Coking Coal 0.647 143.4 143.4 146.4 149.5 152.6 1.2.1.2 Non-Coking Coal 1.401 125.8 125.8 126.6 126.6 126.6 1.2.1.3 Lignite 0.090 232.4 231.0 209.4 209.4 209.4 1.2.2 MINERAL OILS 7.950 156.2 155.0 148.7 148.8 146.3 1.2.3 ELECTRICITY 3.064 144.1 155.8 147.7 154.7 150.2 1.3 MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS 64.231 142.6 143.4 145.2 145.6 147.5 1.3.1 MANUFACTURE OF FOOD PRODUCTS 9.122 172.0 177.5 178.8 178.4 179.6 1.3.1.1 Processing and Preserving of meat 0.134 155.7 157.3 157.9 159.9 159.9 1.3.1.2 Processing and Preserving of fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs and products thereof 0.204 144.9 145.4 153.4 154.3 156.4 1.3.1.3 Processing and Preserving of fruit and Vegetables 0.138 132.6 132.8 134.0 134.0 134.2 1.3.1.4 Vegetable and Animal oils and Fats 2.643 168.5 187.5 186.0 186.6 188.5 1.3.1.5 Dairy products 1.165 180.8 181.9 188.9 189.1 189.5 1.3.1.6 Grain mill products 2.010 186.9 190.4 184.8 183.5 184.8 1.3.1.7 Starches and Starch products 0.110 167.0 164.1 146.5 144.9 144.7 1.3.1.8 Bakery products 0.215 170.5 174.9 177.2 177.2 179.8 1.3.1.9 Sugar, Molasses & honey 1.163 139.1 138.6 144.5 143.9 143.9 1.3.1.10 Cocoa, Chocolate and Sugar confectionery 0.175 160.6 171.7 174.9 177.1 176.6 1.3.1.11 Macaroni, Noodles, Couscous and Similar farinaceous products 0.026 156.7 161.0 163.9 168.6 154.0 1.3.1.12 Tea & Coffee products 0.371 190.7 161.8 187.2 180.5 180.4 1.3.1.13 Processed condiments & salt 0.163 192.6 194.1 191.3 191.8 193.1 1.3.1.14 Processed ready to eat food 0.024 152.7 155.4 155.0 155.1 154.6 1.3.1.15 Health supplements 0.225 185.1 189.5 190.3 189.1 192.2 1.3.1.16 Prepared animal feeds 0.356 204.1 199.0 204.3 203.7 206.7 1.3.2 MANUFACTURE OF BEVERAGES 0.909 134.1 134.4 135.9 135.4 135.8 1.3.2.1 Wines & spirits 0.408 136.0 136.9 138.7 138.4 138.5 1.3.2.2 Malt liquors and Malt 0.225 138.7 138.9 140.4 140.4 140.3 1.3.2.3 Soft drinks; Production of mineral waters and Other bottled waters 0.275 127.5 126.8 127.9 126.9 128.1 1.3.3 MANUFACTURE OF TOBACCO PRODUCTS 0.514 177.8 181.2 181.9 183.0 183.7 1.3.3.1 Tobacco products 0.514 177.8 181.2 181.9 183.0 183.7 RBI Bulletin February 2026 99CURRENT STATISTICS No. 22: Wholesale Price Index (Contd.) (Base: 2011-12 = 100) Commodities Weight 2024-25 2025 2026 Jan. Nov. Dec.(P) Jan.(P) 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.3.4 MANUFACTURE OF TEXTILES 4.881 136.3 137.0 138.7 139.1 140.4 1.3.4.1 Preparation and Spinning of textile fibres 2.582 121.4 120.8 119.8 119.6 120.4 1.3.4.2 Weaving & Finishing of textiles 1.509 158.3 160.9 167.2 168.6 170.9 1.3.4.3 Knitted and Crocheted fabrics 0.193 124.0 124.1 124.9 125.4 127.0 1.3.4.4 Made-up textile articles, Except apparel 0.299 160.4 162.0 162.0 161.4 161.1 1.3.4.5 Cordage, Rope, Twine and Netting 0.098 142.7 146.1 165.3 167.0 171.8 1.3.4.6 Other textiles 0.201 134.9 136.6 133.7 134.7 134.4 1.3.5 MANUFACTURE OF WEARING APPAREL 0.814 153.4 154.2 157.2 156.8 157.4 1.3.5.1 Manufacture of Wearing Apparel (woven), Except fur Apparel 0.593 150.9 151.4 155.1 154.6 155.7 1.3.5.2 Knitted and Crocheted apparel 0.221 160.1 161.6 162.8 162.8 162.2 1.3.6 MANUFACTURE OF LEATHER AND RELATED PRODUCTS 0.535 125.3 127.5 127.8 127.6 128.5 1.3.6.1 Tanning and Dressing of leather; Dressing and Dyeing of fur 0.142 106.1 112.2 110.0 109.3 110.8 1.3.6.2 Luggage, HandbAgs, Saddlery and Harness 0.075 142.5 142.3 143.2 141.9 144.0 1.3.6.3 Footwear 0.318 129.7 130.9 132.1 132.4 132.7 1.3.7 MANUFACTURE OF WOOD AND PRODUCTS OF WOOD AND CORK 0.772 149.2 149.6 150.6 151.2 151.3 1.3.7.1 Saw milling and Planing of wood 0.124 141.1 141.7 142.1 143.6 145.6 1.3.7.2 Veneer sheets; Manufacture of plywood, Laminboard, Particle board and Other panels and Boards 0.493 148.6 149.0 149.8 150.5 150.0 1.3.7.3 Builder's carpentry and Joinery 0.036 215.3 214.5 213.9 213.9 213.9 1.3.7.4 Wooden containers 0.119 140.6 140.6 143.9 143.4 143.7 1.3.8 MANUFACTURE OF PAPER AND PAPER PRODUCTS 1.113 139.2 139.5 140.4 140.2 140.3 1.3.8.1 Pulp, Paper and Paperboard 0.493 144.6 144.5 145.5 145.2 144.9 1.3.8.2 Corrugated paper and Paperboard and Containers of paper and Paperboard 0.314 147.3 149.0 149.8 149.6 150.8 1.3.8.3 Other articles of paper and Paperboard 0.306 122.4 121.6 122.5 122.5 122.2 1.3.9 PRINTING AND REPRODUCTION OF RECORDED MEDIA 0.676 187.3 190.0 189.3 189.6 191.1 1.3.9.1 Printing 0.676 187.3 190.0 189.3 189.6 191.1 1.3.10 MANUFACTURE OF CHEMICALS AND CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 6.465 136.5 136.8 136.7 137.0 137.2 1.3.10.1 Basic chemicals 1.433 138.6 139.7 140.9 142.4 143.1 1.3.10.2 Fertilizers and Nitrogen compounds 1.485 143.1 142.9 143.4 143.6 143.7 1.3.10.3 Plastic and Synthetic rubber in primary form 1.001 133.6 133.8 132.4 132.4 132.3 1.3.10.4 Pesticides and Other agrochemical products 0.454 128.8 129.2 130.6 131.1 130.7 1.3.10.5 Paints, Varnishes and Similar coatings, Printing ink and Mastics 0.491 139.5 139.1 138.0 138.3 138.4 1.3.10.6 Soap and Detergents, Cleaning and Polishing preparations, Perfumes and Toilet preparations 0.612 139.7 140.6 142.3 142.5 142.7 1.3.10.7 Other chemical products 0.692 135.4 135.5 132.8 132.4 132.5 1.3.10.8 Man-made fibres 0.296 104.9 104.7 100.9 100.5 100.9 1.3.11 MANUFACTURE OF PHARMACEUTICALS, MEDICINAL CHEMICAL AND BOTANICAL PRODUCTS 1.993 144.3 145.0 146.4 146.3 145.7 1.3.11.1 Pharmaceuticals, Medicinal chemical and Botanical products 1.993 144.3 145.0 146.4 146.3 145.7 1.3.12 MANUFACTURE OF RUBBER AND PLASTICS PRODUCTS 2.299 129.0 129.3 128.5 127.9 128.2 1.3.12.1 Rubber Tyres and Tubes; Retreading and Rebuilding of Rubber Tyres 0.609 115.6 117.1 113.9 113.9 114.0 1.3.12.2 Other Rubber Products 0.272 112.1 112.6 112.3 111.5 112.2 1.3.12.3 Plastics products 1.418 138.1 137.8 137.8 137.1 137.3 1.3.13 MANUFACTURE OF OTHER NON-METALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS 3.202 131.5 132.2 132.4 132.7 133.4 1.3.13.1 Glass and Glass products 0.295 163.2 163.7 163.2 161.8 162.8 1.3.13.2 Refractory products 0.223 121.6 125.2 124.5 124.4 124.3 1.3.13.3 Clay Building Materials 0.121 124.4 134.5 134.4 140.9 143.1 1.3.13.4 Other Porcelain and Ceramic Products 0.222 124.6 125.1 126.1 126.3 126.3 1.3.13.5 Cement, Lime and Plaster 1.645 130.4 130.2 130.5 130.6 131.8 100 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 22: Wholesale Price Index (Contd.) (Base: 2011-12 = 100) Commodities Weight 2024-25 2025 2026 Jan. Nov. Dec.(P) Jan.(P) 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.3.13.6 Articles of Concrete, Cement and Plaster 0.292 139.2 140.4 138.9 139.1 138.7 1.3.13.7 Cutting, Shaping and Finishing of Stone 0.234 134.4 135.4 140.3 140.5 140.8 1.3.13.8 Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products 0.169 95.2 94.1 92.7 92.8 92.9 1.3.14 MANUFACTURE OF BASIC METALS 9.646 139.7 137.2 136.9 137.4 145.4 1.3.14.1 Inputs into steel making 1.411 133.6 129.4 131.1 131.4 159.8 1.3.14.2 Metallic Iron 0.653 141.8 131.5 126.3 126.6 137.6 1.3.14.3 Mild Steel - Semi Finished Steel 1.274 117.9 117.3 113.4 114.7 117.8 1.3.14.4 Mild Steel -Long Products 1.081 140.4 138.5 133.3 133.2 137.3 1.3.14.5 Mild Steel - Flat products 1.144 134.2 128.9 127.2 126.0 131.6 1.3.14.6 Alloy steel other than Stainless Steel- Shapes 0.067 135.4 132.7 124.3 125.3 132.9 1.3.14.7 Stainless Steel - Semi Finished 0.924 131.1 127.5 119.9 120.3 123.8 1.3.14.8 Pipes & tubes 0.205 164.7 163.7 160.7 159.2 159.6 1.3.14.9 Non-ferrous metals incl. precious metals 1.693 157.4 158.6 169.5 172.0 178.3 1.3.14.10 Castings 0.925 144.9 144.2 144.3 144.6 144.5 1.3.14.11 Forgings of steel 0.271 172.2 172.4 172.8 172.9 171.9 1.3.15 MANUFACTURE OF FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS, EXCEPT MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 3.155 136.0 135.3 136.3 136.3 136.5 1.3.15.1 Structural Metal Products 1.031 130.8 130.2 130.8 130.8 132.2 1.3.15.2 Tanks, Reservoirs and Containers of Metal 0.660 149.5 147.2 149.8 149.9 149.0 1.3.15.3 Steam generators, Except Central Heating Hot Water Boilers 0.145 109.8 108.1 113.1 113.1 113.2 1.3.15.4 Forging, Pressing, Stamping and Roll-Forming of Metal; Powder Metallurgy 0.383 138.0 137.9 131.9 131.7 130.5 1.3.15.5 Cutlery, Hand Tools and General Hardware 0.208 102.0 102.3 104.5 104.4 104.4 1.3.15.6 Other Fabricated Metal Products 0.728 144.9 145.3 147.8 148.0 148.0 1.3.16 MANUFACTURE OF COMPUTER, ELECTRONIC AND OPTICAL PRODUCTS 2.009 121.5 121.5 121.4 121.0 121.8 1.3.16.1 Electronic Components 0.402 117.9 118.6 120.9 120.0 121.1 1.3.16.2 Computers and Peripheral Equipment 0.336 134.2 132.7 129.7 129.7 129.7 1.3.16.3 Communication Equipment 0.310 146.0 146.3 147.6 146.9 146.9 1.3.16.4 Consumer Electronics 0.641 101.1 99.9 96.5 96.4 98.1 1.3.16.5 Measuring, Testing, Navigating and Control equipment 0.181 119.9 121.9 127.8 127.8 127.8 1.3.16.6 Watches and Clocks 0.076 167.9 172.7 180.0 177.9 178.1 1.3.16.7 Irradiation, Electromedical and Electrotherapeutic equipment 0.055 114.4 116.1 114.7 118.2 118.2 1.3.16.8 Optical instruments and Photographic equipment 0.008 107.4 107.9 118.8 118.8 118.9 1.3.17 MANUFACTURE OF ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT 2.930 133.7 134.0 136.3 136.3 137.6 1.3.17.1 Electric motors, Generators, Transformers and Electricity distribution and Control apparatus 1.298 132.3 133.1 133.0 132.7 133.6 1.3.17.2 Batteries and Accumulators 0.236 141.3 140.9 145.4 145.2 144.3 1.3.17.3 Fibre optic cables for data transmission or live transmission of images 0.133 118.6 114.3 118.4 118.6 117.9 1.3.17.4 Other electronic and Electric wires and Cables 0.428 154.4 155.0 164.9 167.6 173.0 1.3.17.5 Wiring devices, Electric lighting & display equipment 0.263 118.4 118.1 119.8 118.7 120.4 1.3.17.6 Domestic appliances 0.366 131.8 131.8 131.3 131.0 131.4 1.3.17.7 Other electrical equipment 0.206 123.4 124.7 128.6 127.6 127.6 1.3.18 MANUFACTURE OF MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 4.789 130.8 131.1 132.9 133.1 132.9 1.3.18.1 Engines and Turbines, Except aircraft, Vehicle and Two wheeler engines 0.638 132.8 132.6 137.3 137.3 136.9 1.3.18.2 Fluid power equipment 0.162 134.5 135.6 135.3 135.3 135.0 1.3.18.3 Other pumps, Compressors, Taps and Valves 0.552 118.5 118.9 121.2 122.2 122.8 1.3.18.4 Bearings, Gears, Gearing and Driving elements 0.340 128.5 129.7 132.4 132.9 133.6 1.3.18.5 Ovens, Furnaces and Furnace burners 0.008 86.6 88.3 89.2 91.3 92.6 1.3.18.6 Lifting and Handling equipment 0.285 130.0 130.1 132.0 132.1 132.3 RBI Bulletin February 2026 101CURRENT STATISTICS No. 22: Wholesale Price Index (Concld.) (Base: 2011-12 = 100) Commodities Weight 2024-25 2025 2026 Jan. Nov. Dec.(P) Jan.(P) 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.3.18.7 Office machinery and Equipment 0.006 130.2 130.2 130.2 130.2 130.2 1.3.18.8 Other general-purpose machinery 0.437 145.3 141.9 142.9 143.9 141.2 1.3.18.9 Agricultural and Forestry machinery 0.833 145.5 146.6 145.9 146.1 144.9 1.3.18.10 Metal-forming machinery and Machine tools 0.224 123.2 124.1 127.4 127.7 127.6 1.3.18.11 Machinery for mining, Quarrying and Construction 0.371 89.8 91.0 93.3 93.1 93.4 1.3.18.12 Machinery for food, Beverage and Tobacco processing 0.228 126.1 126.9 126.7 126.9 125.9 1.3.18.13 Machinery for textile, Apparel and Leather production 0.192 141.4 145.1 143.8 143.3 146.4 1.3.18.14 Other special-purpose machinery 0.468 144.9 144.0 147.5 147.2 147.9 1.3.18.15 Renewable electricity generating equipment 0.046 69.2 69.0 68.8 69.1 68.7 1.3.19 MANUFACTURE OF MOTOR VEHICLES, TRAILERS AND SEMI-TRAILERS 4.969 129.9 130.1 130.4 130.4 130.5 1.3.19.1 Motor vehicles 2.600 130.6 131.0 130.1 130.0 130.4 1.3.19.2 Parts and Accessories for motor vehicles 2.368 129.1 129.0 130.7 130.7 130.6 1.3.20 MANUFACTURE OF OTHER TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT 1.648 145.2 145.7 151.8 151.6 153.0 1.3.20.1 Building of ships and Floating structures 0.117 180.5 188.4 190.7 190.8 190.8 1.3.20.2 Railway locomotives and Rolling stock 0.110 108.9 109.2 111.3 111.3 110.7 1.3.20.3 Motor cycles 1.302 146.0 146.0 152.9 152.7 154.5 1.3.20.4 Bicycles and Invalid carriages 0.117 134.9 134.4 137.9 138.0 137.9 1.3.20.5 Other transport equipment 0.002 163.2 165.7 167.0 166.7 167.3 1.3.21 MANUFACTURE OF FURNITURE 0.727 160.3 161.8 164.1 164.3 164.2 1.3.21.1 Furniture 0.727 160.3 161.8 164.1 164.3 164.2 1.3.22 OTHER MANUFACTURING 1.064 183.8 187.8 250.0 266.5 277.6 1.3.22.1 Jewellery and Related articles 0.996 185.4 189.7 255.7 273.3 285.2 1.3.22.2 Musical instruments 0.001 201.9 197.2 206.3 205.7 204.8 1.3.22.3 Sports goods 0.012 164.9 167.7 173.0 173.1 173.2 1.3.22.4 Games and Toys 0.005 163.1 164.8 169.6 169.3 168.7 1.3.22.5 Medical and Dental instruments and Supplies 0.049 158.6 156.5 162.1 163.2 164.2 2 FOOD INDEX 24.378 192.9 191.5 195.2 196.0 194.2 Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India. 102 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 23: Index of Industrial Production (Base:2011-12=100) Industry Weight 2023-24 2024-25 April-December December 2024-25 2025-26 2024 2025 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 General Index 100.00 146.7 152.6 150.3 156.1 158.0 170.3 1 Sectoral Classification 1.1 Mining 14.37 128.9 132.8 127.0 127.1 143.2 153.0 1.2 Manufacturing 77.63 144.7 150.6 148.5 155.7 157.2 169.9 1.3 Electricity 7.99 198.3 208.6 209.8 210.8 192.8 204.9 2 Use-Based Classification 2.1 Primary Goods 34.05 147.7 153.5 150.8 152.1 157.7 164.6 2.2 Capital Goods 8.22 106.6 112.6 108.9 116.9 114.7 124.0 2.3 Intermediate Goods 17.22 157.3 164.0 162.3 171.3 170.1 182.8 2.4 Infrastructure/ Construction Goods 12.34 176.3 188.2 183.6 200.9 195.4 219.1 2.5 Consumer Durables 12.84 118.6 128.0 126.8 133.9 123.8 139.0 2.6 Consumer Non-Durables 15.33 153.7 151.4 150.7 151.0 166.9 180.7 Source : Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India. Government Accounts and Treasury Bills No. 24: Union Government Accounts at a Glance (₹ Crore) Financial Year April – December Item 2025-26 Percentage to Revised (Revised 2025-26 2024-25 Estimates (Actuals) (Actuals) Estimates) 2025-26 2024-25 1 2 3 4 5 1 Revenue Receipts 3342323 2479109 2290710 74.2 74.2 1.1 Tax Revenue (Net) 2674661 1939254 1843053 72.5 72.1 1.2 Non-Tax Revenue 667662 539855 447657 80.9 84.3 2 Non Debt Capital Receipt 64027 46047 27295 71.9 46.3 2.1 Recovery of Loans 30190 18226 18301 60.4 70.4 2.2 Other Receipts 33837 27821 8994 82.2 27.3 3 Total Receipts (excluding borrowings) (1+2) 3406350 2525156 2318005 74.1 73.7 4 Revenue Expenditure 3869087 2593063 2546757 67.0 68.9 of which : 4.1 Interest Payments 1274338 911059 808313 71.5 71.0 5 Capital Expenditure 1095755 787935 685337 71.9 67.3 6 Total Expenditure (4+5) 4964842 3380998 3232094 68.1 68.5 7 Revenue Deficit (4-1) 526764 113954 256047 21.6 42.0 8 Fiscal Deficit (6-3) 1558492 855842 914089 54.9 58.2 9 Gross Primary Deficit (8-4.1) 284154 -55217 105776 -19.4 24.5 Sources: Controller General of Accounts (CGA), Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Union Budget 2026-27. RBI Bulletin February 2026 103CURRENT STATISTICS No. 25: Treasury Bills – Ownership Pattern (₹ Crore) 2024-25 2024 2025 Item Dec. 27 Nov. 21 Nov. 28 Dec. 5 Dec. 12 Dec. 19 Dec. 26 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 91-day 1.1 Banks 26554 8030 5888 4769 4942 5630 7006 8147 1.2 Primary Dealers 25258 6404 16737 18314 12915 11616 11511 9748 1.3 State Governments 40315 109146 87428 92934 104434 102640 115431 115495 1.4 Others 115688 88165 97276 93016 95244 92654 88382 86005 2 182-day 2.1 Banks 44887 49106 45085 44002 45240 41465 41467 38754 2.2 Primary Dealers 62218 34108 40276 42451 37346 38987 43407 47594 2.3 State Governments 11078 8515 16430 15430 13944 10744 8744 8744 2.4 Others 104994 80386 85439 85346 90214 92848 89426 88952 3 364-day 3.1 Banks 72304 76181 72918 76901 75373 73229 71573 71002 3.2 Primary Dealers 86939 104156 81117 80376 81560 80644 81075 85326 3.3 State Governments 37389 35184 45822 46164 46058 44787 45054 43392 3.4 Others 162757 160663 160965 157723 158867 163526 165652 161972 4 14-day Intermediate 4.1 Banks 4.2 Primary Dealers 4.3 State Governments 188072 173736 190449 171204 89757 151632 143551 168003 4.4 Others 572 449 766 1723 1660 472 1094 835 Total Treasury Bills (Excluding 14 day 790381 760045 755380 757428 766136 758771 768729 765131 Intermediate T Bills) # # 14D intermediate T-Bills are non-marketable unlike 91D, 182D and 364D T-Bills. These bills are ‘intermediate’ by nature as these are liquidated to replenish shortfall in the daily minimum cash balances of State Governments. Note: Primary Dealers (PDs) include banks undertaking PD business. No. 26: Auctions of Treasury Bills (Amount in ₹ Crore) Date of Notified Bids Received Bids Accepted Total Cut- Implicit Yield Auction Amount Total Face Value Total Face Value Issue off at Cut-off Price Number Number (6+7) Price (per cent) Competitive Non- Competitive Non- ( ₹ ) Competitive Competitive 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 91-day Treasury Bills 2025-26 Nov. 26 7000 139 35645 7027 41 6980 7027 14006 98.68 5.3633 Dec. 3 7000 145 35278 13028 36 6972 13028 20000 98.68 5.3480 Dec. 10 7000 135 26089 11016 51 6984 11016 18000 98.70 5.2702 Dec. 17 7000 168 34427 20710 33 6981 20710 27691 98.70 5.2780 Dec. 24 7000 124 27135 8364 28 6980 8364 15344 98.71 5.2579 182-day Treasury Bills 2025-26 Nov. 26 6000 103 35438 1011 9 5989 1011 7000 97.32 5.5244 Dec. 3 6000 110 27139 2523 22 5991 2523 8514 97.32 5.5282 Dec. 10 6000 75 15185 1511 44 5989 1511 7500 97.34 5.4785 Dec. 17 6000 101 17599 816 51 5984 816 6800 97.33 5.4961 Dec. 24 6000 69 17759 8 16 5992 8 6000 97.34 5.4755 364-day Treasury Bills 2025-26 Nov. 26 6000 113 30382 665 14 5791 665 6456 94.77 5.5347 Dec. 3 6000 121 21691 985 52 5815 985 6800 94.76 5.5450 Dec. 10 6000 100 16425 1629 47 5971 1629 7600 94.80 5.4949 Dec. 17 6000 91 15600 1684 47 5700 1570 7270 94.80 5.5044 Dec. 24 6000 67 14695 244 46 5756 244 6000 94.77 5.5387 104 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS Financial Markets No. 27: Daily Call Money Rates (Per cent per annum) Range of Rates Weighted Average Rates As on Borrowings/ Lendings Borrowings/ Lendings 1 2 December 01, 2025 4.75-5.60 5.42 December 02, 2025 4.75-5.50 5.34 December 03, 2025 4.75-5.60 5.35 December 04, 2025 4.75-5.55 5.43 December 05, 2025 4.60-5.50 5.31 December 06, 2025 4.70-5.40 4.93 December 08, 2025 4.50-5.30 5.19 December 09, 2025 4.50-5.25 5.19 December 10, 2025 4.50-5.28 5.20 December 11, 2025 4.50-5.25 5.20 December 12, 2025 4.50-5.25 5.18 December 15, 2025 4.50-5.40 5.25 December 16, 2025 4.50-5.70 5.41 December 17, 2025 4.50-5.65 5.46 December 18, 2025 4.50-5.50 5.36 December 19, 2025 4.50-5.70 5.36 December 20, 2025 4.50-4.99 4.77 December 22, 2025 4.50-5.65 5.38 December 23, 2025 4.50-5.65 5.42 December 24, 2025 4.50-5.57 5.47 December 26, 2025 4.60-5.57 5.46 December 29, 2025 4.50-6.00 5.48 December 30, 2025 4.50-5.62 5.48 December 31, 2025 4.60-5.75 5.55 January 1, 2026 4.50-5.45 5.35 January 2, 2026 4.50-5.50 5.36 January 3, 2026 4.50-4.85 4.75 January 5, 2026 4.50-5.50 5.40 January 6, 2026 4.50-5.45 5.31 January 7, 2026 4.50-5.48 5.30 January 8, 2026 4.50-5.80 5.40 January 9, 2026 4.50-5.60 5.43 January 12, 2026 4.30-5.40 5.32 January 13, 2026 4.50-5.55 5.34 January 14, 2026 4.60-5.50 5.39 Note: Includes Notice Money. RBI Bulletin February 2026 105CURRENT STATISTICS No. 28: Certificates of Deposit 2025 2026 Item Jan. 24 Dec. 15 Dec. 31 Jan. 15 Jan. 31 1 2 3 4 5 1 Amount Outstanding (₹ Crore) 499396.94 554967.84 568136.12 574586.15 588698.82 1.1 Issued during the fortnight (₹ Crore) 30080.60 60187.45 88511.76 40188.61 64409.69 2 Rate of Interest (per cent) 7.07-7.88 5.24-6.87 5.25-6.87 5.25-6.70 5.25-7.84 No. 29: Commercial Paper Item 2025 2026 Jan. 31 Dec. 15 Dec. 31 Jan. 15 Jan. 31 1 2 3 4 5 1 Amount Outstanding (₹ Crore) 456483.15 473476.30 451053.35 453838.55 438787.05 1.1 Reported during the fortnight (₹ Crore) 69001.15 79654.00 59006.25 26659.20 41076.20 2 Rate of Interest (per cent) 7.12-13.77 5.81-12.12 5.99-13.53 5.92-13.42 6.18-14.47 No. 30: Average Daily Turnover in Select Financial Markets (₹ Crore) Item 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. 27 Nov. 21 Nov. 28 Dec. 5 Dec. 12 Dec. 19 Dec. 26 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 Call Money 18990 18396 28904 30785 26949 32741 32335 28949 2 Notice Money 2506 177 507 7395 7222 508 7416 554 3 Term Money 941 539 945 1870 1933 711 1711 1361 4 Triparty Repo 692068 698889 707312 915718 684359 773289 909662 773807 5 Market Repo 578912 452238 687971 837027 745395 717181 812641 650252 6 Repo in Corporate Bond 5212 8475 13615 14008 14748 16696 11618 14861 7 Forex (US $ million) 131877 130014 125026 143479 152092 140295 153364 131973 8 Govt. of India Dated Securities 56065 63621 98171 115899 113665 137156 84213 100381 9 State Govt. Securities 3971 10874 5673 5680 7927 7736 6955 6618 10 Treasury Bills 10.1 91-Day 2514 6006 2615 4052 3472 3636 7178 4244 10.2 182-Day 2218 3089 3118 2767 3428 6163 3560 4871 10.3 364-Day 1854 2669 2795 2627 3391 2481 4228 4659 10.4 Cash Management Bills 11 Total Govt. Securities (8+9+10) 66622 86258 112371 131025 131883 157172 106134 120773 11.1 RBI 1715 306 430 542 626 10145 11329 1445 106 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 31: New Capital Issues by Non-Government Public Limited Companies (Amount in ₹ Crore) 2024-25 2024-25 (Apr.-Dec.) 2025-26 (Apr.-Dec.) * Dec. 2024 Dec. 2025 * Security & Type of Issue No. of Amount No. of Amount No. of Amount No. of Amount No. of Amount Issues Issues Issues Issues Issues 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Equity Shares 464 210190 368 189017 417 213906 48 31119 63 50516 1.1 Public 322 190478 261 172137 312 170016 34 27031 51 23553 1.2 Rights 142 19712 107 16881 105 43891 14 4088 12 26963 2 Public Issue of 43 8149 33 6712 33 7084 4 806 4 580 Bonds/ Debentures 3 Total (1+2) 507 218339 401 195729 450 220990 52 31925 67 51097 3.1 Public 365 198627 294 178849 345 177099 38 27837 55 24133 3.2 Rights 142 19712 107 16881 105 43891 14 4088 12 26963 * : Data is Provisional Note : 1. Since April 2020, monthly data on equity issues is compiled on the basis of their listing date. 2. Figures in the columns might not add up to the total due to rounding off numbers. 3. The table covers only public and rights issuances of equity and debt. It does not include data on private placement of debt, qualified institutional placements and preferential allotments. Source : Securities and Exchange Board of India. RBI Bulletin February 2026 107CURRENT STATISTICS External Sector No. 32: Foreign Trade 2024 2025 2024-25 Item Unit Dec. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 Exports ₹ Crore 3703412 321282 304331 319134 301550 337545 346688 US $ Million 437705 37804 34773 36133 34106 38001 38482 1.1 Oil ₹ Crore 535157 40021 36510 41643 32727 33773 39439 US $ Million 63383 4709 4172 4715 3701 3802 4378 1.2 Non-oil ₹ Crore 3168255 281261 267820 277491 268824 303772 307249 US $ Million 374321 33095 30602 31418 30404 34199 34104 2 Imports ₹ Crore 6089909 496989 542389 610267 672930 556838 572508 US $ Million 720241 58479 61974 69095 76109 62689 63547 2.1 Oil ₹ Crore 1570226 115543 116064 123926 130782 125374 129746 US $ Million 185779 13595 13262 14031 14792 14115 14402 2.2 Non-oil ₹ Crore 4519683 381447 426324 486341 542148 431464 442761 US $ Million 534462 44883 48713 55064 61318 48574 49146 3 Trade Balance ₹ Crore -2386497 -175707 -238058 -291133 -371379 -219293 -225819 US $ Million -282537 -20675 -27201 -32962 -42003 -24688 -25066 3.1 Oil ₹ Crore -1035069 -75521 -79554 -82283 -98055 -91600 -90307 US $ Million -122396 -8886 -9090 -9316 -11090 -10312 -10024 3.2 Non-oil ₹ Crore -1351428 -100186 -158504 -208850 -273324 -127692 -135512 US $ Million -160141 -11788 -18111 -23646 -30913 -14376 -15042 Note: Data in the table are provisional. Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics. No. 33: Foreign Exchange Reserves 2025 2026 Item Unit Feb. 07 Dec. 26 Jan. 02 Jan. 09 Jan. 16 Jan. 23 Jan. 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 Total Reserves ₹ Crore 5580726 6258848 6194458 6195896 6373302 6523645 6657540 US $ Million 638261 696610 686801 687193 701360 709413 723774 1.1 Foreign Currency Assets ₹ Crore 4757453 5027961 4978585 4966747 5093544 5176327 5173119 US $ Million 544106 559612 551990 550866 560518 562885 562392 1.2 Gold ₹ Crore 631357 1018151 1003513 1017307 1067327 1131929 1266470 US $ Million 72208 113320 111262 112830 117454 123088 137683 Volume (Metric Tonnes) 879.01 880.18 880.34 880.34 880.34 880.34 880.34 1.3 SDRs SDRs Million 13705 13712 13712 13712 13712 13712 13712 ₹ Crore 156319 168943 169366 168956 169967 172303 174333 US $ Million 17878 18803 18778 18739 18704 18737 18953 1.4 Reserve Tranche Position in IMF ₹ Crore 35597 43793 42994 42886 42465 43086 43619 US $ Million 4069 4875 4771 4758 4684 4703 4746 * Difference, if any, is due to rounding off. Note: Exclude investment in foreign currency denominated bonds issued by IIFC (UK), SDRs transferred by Government of India to RBI, foreign currency received under SAARC and ACU currency swap arrangements and RBI’s contribution to funding of Nexus Global Payments. Foreign currency assets in US dollar take into account appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies (such as Euro, Sterling, Yen and Australian Dollar) held in reserves. Foreign exchange holdings are converted into rupees at rupee-US dollar RBI holding rates. No. 34: Non-Resident Deposits (US $ Million) Scheme Outstanding Flows 2024 2025 2024-25 2025-26 2024-25 Dec. Nov. Dec. (P) Apr.-Dec. Apr.-Dec.(P) 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 NRI Deposits 164677 161804 167973 169274 13333 11204 1.1 FCNR(B) 32809 32198 34672 34851 6465 2042 1.2 NR(E)RA 100733 99565 100502 100789 3572 5065 1.3 NRO 31135 30041 32799 33634 3296 4097 P: Provisional. 108 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 35: Foreign Investment Inflows (US $ Million) 2024-25 2025-26 (P) 2024 (P) 2025 (P) Item 2024-25 Apr.-Dec. Apr.-Dec. Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.1 Net Foreign Direct Investment (1.1.1-1.1.2) 959 593 3986 -189 -475 -1612 1.1.1 Direct Investment to India (1.1.1.1-1.1.1.2) 29130 19077 28865 1915 1065 1134 1.1.1.1 Gross Inflows/Gross Investments 80615 63088 73314 7321 6409 8582 1.1.1.1.1 Equity 50993 41383 50380 4458 3931 5778 1.1.1.1.1.1 Government 2208 1848 1681 1248 81 50 1.1.1.1.1.2 RBI 34686 27367 34606 1543 1663 4207 1.1.1.1.1.3 Acquisition of shares 13124 11457 11587 1583 1888 1223 1.1.1.1.1.4 Equity capital of unincorporated bodies 975 711 2505 85 298 298 1.1.1.1.2 Reinvested earnings 22759 16594 18540 1978 2208 2208 1.1.1.1.3 Other capital 6863 5112 4394 884 270 596 1.1.1.2 Repatriation/Disinvestment 51486 44011 44449 5406 5343 7448 1.1.1.2.1 Equity 49525 42326 42616 5212 5260 7253 1.1.1.2.2 Other capital 1960 1685 1832 194 84 195 1.1.2 Foreign Direct Investment by India 28171 18485 24878 2104 1541 2746 (1.1.2.1+1.1.2.2+1.1.2.3-1.1.2.4) 1.1.2.1 Equity capital 16945 10624 14785 1241 705 1953 1.1.2.2 Reinvested Earnings 6846 5135 5707 571 634 634 1.1.2.3 Other Capital 7955 5335 6445 597 260 654 1.1.2.4 Repatriation/Disinvestment 3575 2608 2059 304 58 495 1.2 Net Portfolio Investment (1.2.1+1.2.2+1.2.3-1.2.4) 3564 9423 -4155 1812 683 -4121 1.2.1 GDRs/ADRs - - - - - - 1.2.2 FPIs 3283 9278 -2912 1791 708 -4192 1.2.3 Offshore funds and others - - - - - - 1.2.4 Portfolio investment by India -281 -145 1244 -21 24 -71 1 Foreign Investment Inflows 4523 10015 -169 1623 208 -5733 P: Provisional No. 36: Outward Remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for Resident Individuals (US $ Million) 2024 2025 Item 2024-25 Dec. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 5 1 Outward Remittances under the LRS 29563.12 2315.96 2364.45 1937.19 2263.67 1.1 Deposit 705.26 48.10 47.16 38.80 54.60 1.2 Purchase of immovable property 322.82 30.14 44.64 46.71 47.90 1.3 Investment in equity/debt 1698.94 179.34 273.09 174.04 218.14 1.4 Gift 2938.69 229.47 197.53 194.33 201.30 1.5 Donations 11.81 0.63 0.87 0.81 0.89 1.6 Travel 16964.57 1323.64 1352.59 1101.46 1300.17 1.7 Maintenance of close relatives 3722.03 279.02 273.86 248.25 262.70 1.8 Medical Treatment 81.19 5.13 5.04 4.70 4.20 1.9 Studies Abroad 2918.91 210.20 163.26 120.94 165.88 1.10 Others 198.90 10.31 6.40 7.15 7.89 RBI Bulletin February 2026 109CURRENT STATISTICS No. 37: Indices of Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the Indian Rupee 2025 2026 2023-24 2024-25 Jan. Dec. Jan. Item 1 2 3 4 5 40-Currency Basket (Base: 2015-16=100) 1 Trade-Weighted 1.1 NEER 90.75 91.01 90.70 82.69 82.14 1.2 REER 103.86 105.41 104.49 95.14 94.76 2 Export-Weighted 2.1 NEER 93.13 93.52 93.11 84.66 84.59 2.2 REER 101.37 102.50 101.43 92.48 92.66 6-Currency Basket (Trade-weighted) 1 Base : 2015-16 =100 1.1 NEER 83.62 82.38 82.01 74.95 74.09 1.2 REER 101.66 102.72 102.07 93.99 93.23 2 Base : 2022-23 =100 2.1 NEER 97.31 95.87 95.44 87.22 86.22 2.2 REER 99.86 100.90 100.26 92.32 91.58 Note: Data for 2024-25 and 2025-26 so far is provisional. 110 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 38: External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) – Registrations (Amount in US $ Million) Item 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 1 Automatic Route 1.1 Number 1328 112 106 129 1.2 Amount 47800 6234 2243 3122 2 Approval Route 2.1 Number 51 12 1 6 2.2 Amount 13384 3309 159 1314 3 Total (1+2) 3.1 Number 1379 124 107 135 3.2 Amount 61184 9543 2402 4436 4 Weighted Average Maturity (in years) 5.05 4.50 4.70 4.70 5 Interest Rate (per cent) 5.1 Weighted Average Margin over alternative reference rate (ARR) for Floating Rate Loans@ 1.48 1.45 1.56 1.38 5.2 Interest rate range for Fixed Rate Loans 0.00-11.67 0.00-10.60 0.00-10.50 0.00-10.00 Borrower Category I. Corporate Manufacturing 13900 3685 200 821 II. Corporate-Infrastructure 15462 533 1479 757 a.) Transport 614 0 0 275 b.) Energy 6900 0 283 176 c.) Water and Sanitation 28 0 0 0 d.) Communication 13 0 0 0 e.) Social and Commercial Infrastructure 184 0 48 0 f.) Exploration,Mining and Refinery 5356 530 950 300 g.) Other Sub-Sectors 2367 3 198 6 III. Corporate Service-Sector 3226 685 179 541 IV. Other Entities 1026 3 0 354 a.) units in SEZ 26 3 0 4 b.) SIDBI 0 0 0 0 c.) Exim Bank 1000 0 0 350 V. Banks 0 0 0 0 VI. Financial Institution (Other than NBFC ) 0 - 0 0 VII. NBFCs 26318 4614 541 1944 a). NBFC- IFC/AFC 12389 3042 147 879 b). NBFC-MFI 459 0 89 76 c). NBFC-Others 13470 1572 305 989 VIII. Non-Government Organization (NGO) 0 0 0 0 IX. Micro Finance Institution (MFI) 0 0 0 0 X. Others 1252 23 3 19 Note: Based on applications for ECB/Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) which have been allotted loan registration number during the period. @ With effect from July 01, 2023, the benchmark rate is changed to Alternative Reference Rate (ARR) RBI Bulletin February 2026 111CURRENT STATISTICS No. 39a: Invoicing in INR of Exports of Goods and Software and Imports of Goods from/to India (INR billion) Apr-Dec Apr-Dec Apr-Mar Apr-Mar 2025-26 2024-25 2024-25 2023-24 1 2 3 4 2315.03 2213.99 3063.09 2862.53 Exports (6.08%) (5.84%) (5.90%) (5.86%) 2223.73 1795.16 2598.87 1941.41 Imports (4.82%) (4.18%) (4.54%) (3.70%) Notes: 1. Figures in parentheses indicate percentage share of INR compared to all currencies. 2. All figures are based on AD bank reporting on EDPMS/IDPMS portal and hence are subject to updates/corrections from time to time. Source: EDPMS/IDPMS portal. No. 39b: Settlement in INR of Exports of Goods and Software and Imports of Goods from/to India (INR billion) Apr-Dec Apr-Dec Apr-Mar Apr-Mar 2025-26 2024-25 2024-25 2023-24 1 2 3 4 1203.21 1222.12 1645.62 1737.57 Exports (2.84%) (3.17%) (3.13%) (3.54%) 1139.58 720.47 1127.89 993.41 Imports (2.36%) (1.64%) (1.94%) (1.84%) Notes: 1. Figures in parentheses indicate percentage share of INR compared to all currencies. 2. All figures are based on AD bank reporting on EDPMS/IDPMS portal and hence are subject to updates/corrections from time to time. Source: EDPMS/IDPMS portal. 112 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 40: India’s Overall Balance of Payments (US$ Million) Item Jul-Sep 2024 Jul-Sep 2025 (P) Credit Debit Net Credit Debit Net 1 2 3 4 5 6 Overall Balance Of Payments (1+2+3) 563182 544568 18614 640815 651732 -10917 1 Current Account (1.1+ 1.2) 245798 266660 -20862 266736 279046 -12310 1.1 Merchandise 100645 189176 -88530 109397 196840 -87443 1.2 Invisibles (1.2.1+1.2.2+1.2.3) 145153 77485 67668 157339 82206 75133 1.2.1 Services 93406 48945 44461 101622 50734 50888 1.2.1.1 Travel 7635 9367 -1732 6813 9457 -2645 1.2.1.2 Transportation 8668 9188 -520 7768 8726 -958 1.2.1.3 Insurance 885 786 100 964 724 240 1.2.1.4 G.n.i.e. 147 316 -169 154 306 -152 1.2.1.5 Miscellaneous 76070 29288 46782 85923 31520 54402 1.2.1.5.1 Software Services 44164 4539 39624 49523 5640 43883 1.2.1.5.2 Business Services 25176 15548 9628 29471 16129 13342 1.2.1.5.3 Financial Services 2190 1265 926 1816 615 1200 1.2.1.5.4 Communication Services 519 497 21 732 548 184 1.2.2 Transfers 35275 2875 32400 39041 2603 36438 1.2.2.1 Official 28 311 -283 35 225 -190 1.2.2.2 Private 35247 2564 32683 39006 2378 36628 1.2.3 Income 16472 25665 -9193 16677 28870 -12193 1.2.3.1 Investment Income 14477 24643 -10166 14518 27759 -13241 1.2.3.2 Compensation of Employees 1995 1023 972 2159 1111 1048 2 Capital Account (2.1+2.2+2.3+2.4+2.5) 317384 277459 39924 373261 372686 575 2.1 Foreign Investment (2.1.1+2.1.2) 203245 186216 17029 161520 164391 -2871 2.1.1 Foreign Direct Investment 21137 23958 -2821 25940 23065 2876 2.1.1.1 In India 20589 15622 4967 25155 13839 11317 2.1.1.1.1 Equity 13846 15016 -1171 17373 13265 4107 2.1.1.1.2 Reinvested Earnings 5435 5435 6073 6073 2.1.1.1.3 Other Capital 1309 606 702 1709 573 1136 2.1.1.2 Abroad 548 8336 -7788 785 9226 -8441 2.1.1.2.1 Equity 548 4583 -4035 785 5373 -4588 2.1.1.2.2 Reinvested Earnings 0 1712 -1712 0 1902 -1902 2.1.1.2.3 Other Capital 0 2041 -2041 0 1951 -1951 2.1.2 Portfolio Investment 182108 162258 19850 135580 141327 -5747 2.1.2.1 In India 181433 161618 19815 134786 140255 -5468 2.1.2.1.1 FIIs 181433 161618 19815 134786 140255 -5468 2.1.2.1.1.1 Equity 160273 149590 10683 113496 122643 -9147 2.1.2.1.1.2 Debt 21160 12028 9132 21290 17612 3678 2.1.2.1.2 ADR/GDRs 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.1.2.2 Abroad 675 640 35 794 1072 -279 2.2 Loans (2.2.1+2.2.2+2.2.3) 40856 31392 9464 167163 163783 3379 2.2.1 External Assistance 3726 1577 2148 2182 1695 486 2.2.1.1 By India 6 26 -20 6 11 -5 2.2.1.2 To India 3720 1551 2168 2176 1685 491 2.2.2 Commercial Borrowings 17481 15485 1995 147344 147389 -45 2.2.2.1 By India 5059 8028 -2969 140445 142094 -1649 2.2.2.2 To India 12421 7457 4964 6899 5295 1604 2.2.3 Short Term to India 19650 14330 5320 17638 14699 2938 2.2.3.1 Buyers' credit & Suppliers' Credit >180 days 15107 14330 777 15831 14699 1132 2.2.3.2 Suppliers' Credit up to 180 days 4543 0 4543 1807 0 1807 2.3 Banking Capital (2.3.1+2.3.2) 52432 46345 6087 34260 32370 1891 2.3.1 Commercial Banks 52112 46345 5767 34260 32317 1943 2.3.1.1 Assets 17627 18853 -1226 10699 7986 2714 2.3.1.2 Liabilities 34485 27492 6993 23561 24332 -771 2.3.1.2.1 Non-Resident Deposits 28921 22753 6167 23330 20876 2454 2.3.2 Others 319 0 319 0 52 -52 2.4 Rupee Debt Service 0 2 -2 0 1 -1 2.5 Other Capital 20850 13504 7346 10318 12140 -1822 3 Errors & Omissions 0 448 -448 818 0 818 4 Monetary Movements (4.1+ 4.2) 0 18614 -18614 10917 0 10917 4.1 I.M.F. 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 Foreign Exchange Reserves (Increase - / Decrease +) 0 18614 -18614 10917 0 10917 Note: P: Preliminary. RBI Bulletin February 2026 113CURRENT STATISTICS No. 41: India’s Overall Balance of Payments (₹ Crore) Item Jul-Sep 2024 Jul-Sep 2025 (P) Credit Debit Net Credit Debit Net 1 2 3 4 5 6 Overall Balance Of Payments (1+2+3) 4717571 4561652 155919 5595501 5690827 -95326 1 Current Account (1.1+ 1.2) 2058962 2233718 -174756 2329098 2436589 -107491 1.1 Merchandise 843069 1584657 -741588 955235 1718776 -763542 1.2 Invisibles (1.2.1+1.2.2+1.2.3) 1215892 649061 566832 1373864 717813 656050 1.2.1 Services 782427 409991 372436 887346 443000 444345 1.2.1.1 Travel 63958 78464 -14506 59486 82579 -23093 1.2.1.2 Transportation 72610 76965 -4355 67832 76194 -8362 1.2.1.3 Insurance 7417 6581 836 8416 6323 2093 1.2.1.4 G.n.i.e. 1228 2643 -1415 1348 2675 -1326 1.2.1.5 Miscellaneous 637214 245338 391875 750263 275229 475034 1.2.1.5.1 Software Services 369945 38026 331920 432424 49247 383177 1.2.1.5.2 Business Services 210894 130244 80650 257337 140839 116498 1.2.1.5.3 Financial Services 18349 10595 7754 15855 5374 10482 1.2.1.5.4 Communication Services 4345 4167 177 6394 4787 1607 1.2.2 Transfers 295485 24079 271406 340897 22726 318171 1.2.2.1 Official 232 2601 -2369 304 1964 -1660 1.2.2.2 Private 295252 21478 273775 340593 20762 319831 1.2.3 Income 137980 214990 -77010 145621 252086 -106466 1.2.3.1 Investment Income 121268 206423 -85155 126769 242388 -115619 1.2.3.2 Compensation of Employees 16712 8568 8145 18851 9698 9153 2 Capital Account (2.1+2.2+2.3+2.4+2.5) 2658609 2324178 334431 3259261 3254238 5024 2.1 Foreign Investment (2.1.1+2.1.2) 1702512 1559865 142647 1410371 1435441 -25070 2.1.1 Foreign Direct Investment 177057 200687 -23630 226507 201396 25112 2.1.1.1 In India 172466 130862 41604 219652 120836 98816 2.1.1.1.1 Equity 115979 125784 -9805 151696 115832 35864 2.1.1.1.2 Reinvested Earnings 45525 0 45525 53031 0 53031 2.1.1.1.3 Other Capital 10961 5078 5884 14926 5004 9922 2.1.1.2 Abroad 4591 69825 -65234 6855 80560 -73705 2.1.1.2.1 Equity 4591 38393 -33802 6855 46915 -40060 2.1.1.2.2 Reinvested Earnings 0 14337 -14337 0 16612 -16612 2.1.1.2.3 Other Capital 0 17095 -17095 0 17033 -17033 2.1.2 Portfolio Investment 1525455 1359178 166277 1183864 1234045 -50181 2.1.2.1 In India 1519799 1353816 165984 1176935 1224684 -47749 2.1.2.1.1 FIIs 1519799 1353816 165984 1176935 1224684 -47749 2.1.2.1.1.1 Equity 1342550 1253064 89486 991031 1070898 -79866 2.1.2.1.1.2 Debt 177250 100752 76498 185903 153786 32117 2.1.2.1.2 ADR/GDRs 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.1.2.2 Abroad 5656 5363 293 6929 9361 -2432 2.2 Loans (2.2.1+2.2.2+2.2.3) 342239 262961 79279 1459640 1430132 29508 2.2.1 External Assistance 31210 13212 17997 19050 14804 4246 2.2.1.1 By India 52 217 -166 52 94 -42 2.2.1.2 To India 31158 12995 18163 18998 14710 4288 2.2.2 Commercial Borrowings 146429 129714 16715 1286582 1286978 -396 2.2.2.1 By India 42379 67249 -24870 1226344 1240743 -14399 2.2.2.2 To India 104050 62465 41585 60238 46235 14003 2.2.3 Short Term to India 164601 120034 44566 154008 128350 25658 2.2.3.1 Buyers' credit & Suppliers' Credit >180 days 126546 120034 6511 138232 128350 9882 2.2.3.2 Suppliers' Credit up to 180 days 38055 0 38055 15776 0 15776 2.3 Banking Capital (2.3.1+2.3.2) 439202 388217 50985 299155 282647 16508 2.3.1 Commercial Banks 436527 388217 48311 299155 282190 16965 2.3.1.1 Assets 147657 157925 -10268 93424 69730 23694 2.3.1.2 Liabilities 288870 230292 58579 205730 212460 -6729 2.3.1.2.1 Non-Resident Deposits 242259 190597 51662 203712 182285 21427 2.3.2 Others 2675 0 2675 0 457 -457 2.4 Rupee Debt Service 0 15 -15 0 13 -13 2.5 Other Capital 174656 113120 61536 90095 106005 -15909 3 Errors & Omissions 0 3756 -3756 7142 0 7142 4 Monetary Movements (4.1+ 4.2) 0 155919 -155919 95326 0 95326 4.1 I.M.F. 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 Foreign Exchange Reserves (Increase - / Decrease +) 0 155919 -155919 95326 0 95326 Note: P: Preliminary. 114 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 42: Standard Presentation of BoP in India as per BPM6 (US$ Million) Item Jul-Sep 2024 Jul-Sep 2025 (P) Credit Debit Net Credit Debit Net 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Current Account (1.A+1.B+1.C) 245798 266630 -20832 266735 279027 -12292 1.A Goods and Services (1.A.a+1.A.b) 194051 238120 -44069 211018 247574 -36555 1.A.a Goods (1.A.a.1 to 1.A.a.3) 100645 189176 -88530 109397 196840 -87443 1.A.a.1 General merchandise on a BOP basis 100660 168484 -67825 109128 177811 -68683 1.A.a.2 Net exports of goods under merchanting -14 0 -14 268 0 268 1.A.a.3 Nonmonetary gold 20691 -20691 19029 -19029 1.A.b Services (1.A.b.1 to 1.A.b.13) 93406 48945 44461 101622 50734 50888 1.A.b.1 Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others 276 20 256 193 29 164 1.A.b.2 Maintenance and repair services n.i.e. 90 263 -172 102 359 -258 1.A.b.3 Transport 8668 9188 -520 7768 8726 -958 1.A.b.4 Travel 7635 9367 -1732 6813 9457 -2645 1.A.b.5 Construction 1263 951 312 1317 959 358 1.A.b.6 Insurance and pension services 885 786 100 964 724 240 1.A.b.7 Financial services 2190 1265 926 1816 615 1200 1.A.b.8 Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. 448 3877 -3428 423 4493 -4070 1.A.b.9 Telecommunications, computer, and information services 44772 5333 39439 50359 6398 43961 1.A.b.10 Other business services 25176 15548 9628 29471 16129 13342 1.A.b.11 Personal, cultural, and recreational services 1107 1794 -688 1363 1591 -228 1.A.b.12 Government goods and services n.i.e. 147 316 -169 154 306 -152 1.A.b.13 Others n.i.e. 747 238 509 879 945 -66 1.B Primary Income (1.B.1 to 1.B.3) 16472 25665 -9193 16677 28870 -12193 1.B.1 Compensation of employees 1995 1023 972 2159 1111 1048 1.B.2 Investment income 13047 24205 -11158 12257 26432 -14174 1.B.2.1 Direct investment 2923 12884 -9961 2965 15098 -12133 1.B.2.2 Portfolio investment 78 4152 -4074 103 4444 -4341 1.B.2.3 Other investment 1168 6945 -5778 1106 6723 -5617 1.B.2.4 Reserve assets 8878 223 8655 8084 168 7916 1.B.3 Other primary income 1430 438 992 2261 1327 933 1.C Secondary Income (1.C.1+1.C.2) 35275 2844 32430 39040 2584 36456 1.C.1 Financial corporations, nonfinancial corporations, households, and NPISHs 35247 2564 32683 39006 2378 36628 1.C.1.1 Personal transfers (Current transfers between resident and/non-resident households) 34422 1803 32619 38157 1748 36410 1.C.1.2 Other current transfers 826 761 64 848 630 218 1.C.2 General government 27 280 -253 34 206 -172 2 Capital Account (2.1+2.2) 186 197 -11 213 370 -157 2.1 Gross acquisitions (DR.)/disposals (CR.) of non-produced nonfinancial assets 7 68 -61 25 268 -242 2.2 Capital transfers 179 129 50 188 103 86 3 Financial Account (3.1 to 3.5) 317198 295906 21292 383966 372334 11631 3.1 Direct Investment (3.1A+3.1B) 21137 23958 -2821 25940 23065 2876 3.1.A Direct Investment in India 20589 15622 4967 25155 13839 11317 3.1.A.1 Equity and investment fund shares 19280 15016 4264 23446 13265 10180 3.1.A.1.1 Equity other than reinvestment of earnings 13846 15016 -1171 17373 13265 4107 3.1.A.1.2 Reinvestment of earnings 5435 5435 6073 6073 3.1.A.2 Debt instruments 1309 606 702 1709 573 1136 3.1.A.2.1 Direct investor in direct investment enterprises 1309 606 702 1709 573 1136 3.1.B Direct Investment by India 548 8336 -7788 785 9226 -8441 3.1.B.1 Equity and investment fund shares 548 6295 -5747 785 7275 -6490 3.1.B.1.1 Equity other than reinvestment of earnings 548 4583 -4035 785 5373 -4588 3.1.B.1.2 Reinvestment of earnings 1712 -1712 1902 -1902 3.1.B.2 Debt instruments 0 2041 -2041 0 1951 -1951 3.1.B.2.1 Direct investor in direct investment enterprises 2041 -2041 1951 -1951 3.2 Portfolio Investment 182108 162258 19850 135580 141327 -5747 3.2.A Portfolio Investment in India 181433 161618 19815 134786 140255 -5468 3.2.1 Equity and investment fund shares 160273 149590 10683 113496 122643 -9147 3.2.2 Debt securities 21160 12028 9132 21290 17612 3678 3.2.B Portfolio Investment by India 675 640 35 794 1072 -279 3.3 Financial derivatives (other than reserves) and employee stock options 6359 11892 -5533 5820 9441 -3621 3.4 Other investment 107594 79185 28409 205708 198502 7206 3.4.1 Other equity (ADRs/GDRs) 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.4.2 Currency and deposits 29240 22753 6487 23330 20928 2402 3.4.2.1 Central bank (Rupee Debt Movements; NRG) 319 0 319 0 52 -52 3.4.2.2 Deposit-taking corporations, except the central bank (NRI Deposits) 28921 22753 6167 23330 20876 2454 3.4.2.3 General government 0 0 3.4.2.4 Other sectors 0 0 3.4.3 Loans (External Assistance, ECBs and Banking Capital) 44398 40654 3744 160456 160526 -70 3.4.3.A Loans to India 39333 32600 6733 20005 18421 1584 3.4.3.B Loans by India 5065 8054 -2989 140451 142105 -1654 3.4.4 Insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes 47 3 44 45 65 -21 3.4.5 Trade credit and advances 19650 14330 5320 17638 14699 2938 3.4.6 Other accounts receivable/payable - other 14259 1444 12814 4241 2284 1957 3.4.7 Special drawing rights 0 0 0 0 3.5 Reserve assets 0 18614 -18614 10917 0 10917 3.5.1 Monetary gold 0 0 3.5.2 Special drawing rights n.a. 0 0 0 0 3.5.3 Reserve position in the IMF n.a. 0 0 3.5.4 Other reserve assets (Foreign Currency Assets) 0 18614 -18614 10917 0 10917 4 Total assets/liabilities 317198 295906 21292 383966 372334 11631 4.1 Equity and investment fund shares 187183 183437 3746 144385 153761 -9376 4.2 Debt instruments 115757 92412 23345 224422 216289 8134 4.3 Other financial assets and liabilities 14259 20058 -5799 15158 2284 12874 5 Net errors and omissions 0 448 -448 818 0 818 Note: P: Preliminary. RBI Bulletin February 2026 115CURRENT STATISTICS No. 43: Standard Presentation of BoP in India as per BPM6 (₹ Crore) Jul-Sep 2024 Jul-Sep 2025 (P) Item Credit Debit Net Credit Debit Net 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Current Account (1.A+1.B+1.C) 2058959 2233464 -174505 2329091 2436427 -107336 1.A Goods and Services (1.A.a+1.A.b) 1625497 1994649 -369152 1842580 2161777 -319196 1.A.a Goods (1.A.a.1 to 1.A.a.3) 843069 1584657 -741588 955235 1718776 -763542 1.A.a.1 General merchandise on a BOP basis 843190 1411333 -568142 952892 1552621 -599729 1.A.a.2 Net exports of goods under merchanting -121 0 -121 2342 0 2342 1.A.a.3 Nonmonetary gold 0 173325 -173325 0 166155 -166155 1.A.b Services (1.A.b.1 to 1.A.b.13) 782427 409991 372436 887346 443000 444345 1.A.b.1 Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others 2316 169 2147 1683 253 1430 1.A.b.2 Maintenance and repair services n.i.e. 755 2199 -1444 890 3139 -2249 1.A.b.3 Transport 72610 76965 -4355 67832 76194 -8362 1.A.b.4 Travel 63958 78464 -14506 59486 82579 -23093 1.A.b.5 Construction 10580 7963 2616 11499 8374 3125 1.A.b.6 Insurance and pension services 7417 6581 836 8416 6323 2093 1.A.b.7 Financial services 18349 10595 7754 15855 5374 10482 1.A.b.8 Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. 3754 32473 -28719 3693 39235 -35543 1.A.b.9 Telecommunications, computer, and information services 375037 44672 330366 439727 55864 383863 1.A.b.10 Other business services 210894 130244 80650 257337 140839 116498 1.A.b.11 Personal, cultural, and recreational services 9269 15029 -5760 11899 13895 -1995 1.A.b.12 Government goods and services n.i.e. 1228 2643 -1415 1348 2675 -1326 1.A.b.13 Others n.i.e. 6260 1994 4266 7679 8256 -577 1.B Primary Income (1.B.1 to 1.B.3) 137980 214990 -77010 145621 252086 -106466 1.B.1 Compensation of employees 16712 8568 8145 18851 9698 9153 1.B.2 Investment income 109290 202753 -93463 107030 230798 -123768 1.B.2.1 Direct investment 24485 107928 -83443 25888 131832 -105944 1.B.2.2 Portfolio investment 653 34776 -34123 901 38803 -37902 1.B.2.3 Other investment 9783 58180 -48396 9655 58701 -49046 1.B.2.4 Reserve assets 74369 1870 72499 70587 1463 69124 1.B.3 Other primary income 11978 3669 8309 19739 11590 8149 1.C Secondary Income (1.C.1+1.C.2) 295482 23825 271657 340890 22564 318327 1.C.1 Financial corporations, nonfinancial corporations, households, and NPISHs 295252 21478 273775 340593 20762 319831 1.C.1.1 Personal transfers (Current transfers between resident and/non-resident households) 288337 15102 273235 333185 15259 317926 1.C.1.2 Other current transfers 6915 6376 539 7408 5503 1905 1.C.2 General government 230 2347 -2117 297 1801 -1504 2 Capital Account (2.1+2.2) 1558 1649 -91 1863 3233 -1370 2.1 Gross acquisitions (DR.)/disposals (CR.) of non-produced nonfinancial assets 57 570 -513 220 2338 -2117 2.2 Capital transfers 1501 1079 422 1642 895 747 3 Financial Account (3.1 to 3.5) 2657054 2478702 178352 3352732 3251167 101565 3.1 Direct Investment (3.1A+3.1B) 177057 200687 -23630 226507 201396 25112 3.1.A Direct Investment in India 172466 130862 41604 219652 120836 98816 3.1.A.1 Equity and investment fund shares 161505 125784 35720 204726 115832 88894 3.1.A.1.1 Equity other than reinvestment of earnings 115979 125784 -9805 151696 115832 35864 3.1.A.1.2 Reinvestment of earnings 45525 0 45525 53031 0 53031 3.1.A.2 Debt instruments 10961 5078 5884 14926 5004 9922 3.1.A.2.1 Direct investor in direct investment enterprises 10961 5078 5884 14926 5004 9922 3.1.B Direct Investment by India 4591 69825 -65234 6855 80560 -73705 3.1.B.1 Equity and investment fund shares 4591 52730 -48139 6855 63527 -56672 3.1.B.1.1 Equity other than reinvestment of earnings 4591 38393 -33802 6855 46915 -40060 3.1.B.1.2 Reinvestment of earnings 0 14337 -14337 0 16612 -16612 3.1.B.2 Debt instruments 0 17095 -17095 0 17033 -17033 3.1.B.2.1 Direct investor in direct investment enterprises 0 17095 -17095 0 17033 -17033 3.2 Portfolio Investment 1525455 1359178 166277 1183864 1234045 -50181 3.2.A Portfolio Investment in India 1519799 1353816 165984 1176935 1224684 -47749 3.2.1 Equity and investment fund shares 1342550 1253064 89486 991031 1070898 -79866 3.2.2 Debt securities 177250 100752 76498 185903 153786 32117 3.2.B Portfolio Investment by India 5656 5363 293 6929 9361 -2432 3.3 Financial derivatives (other than reserves) and employee stock options 53269 99618 -46349 50820 82434 -31614 3.4 Other investment 901273 663300 237973 1796215 1733292 62922 3.4.1 Other equity (ADRs/GDRs) 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.4.2 Currency and deposits 244933 190597 54337 203712 182742 20971 3.4.2.1 Central bank (Rupee Debt Movements; NRG) 2675 0 2675 0 457 -457 3.4.2.2 Deposit-taking corporations, except the central bank (NRI Deposits) 242259 190597 51662 203712 182285 21427 3.4.2.3 General government 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.4.2.4 Other sectors 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.4.3 Loans (External Assistance, ECBs and Banking Capital) 371907 340546 31361 1401074 1401687 -613 3.4.3.A Loans to India 329476 273079 56397 174678 160850 13828 3.4.3.B Loans by India 42431 67467 -25036 1226396 1240837 -14441 3.4.4 Insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes 393 25 368 389 569 -180 3.4.5 Trade credit and advances 164601 120034 44566 154008 128350 25658 3.4.6 Other accounts receivable/payable - other 119439 12098 107341 37031 19945 17086 3.4.7 Special drawing rights 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.5 Reserve assets 0 155919 -155919 95326 0 95326 3.5.1 Monetary gold 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.5.2 Special drawing rights n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.5.3 Reserve position in the IMF n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.5.4 Other reserve assets (Foreign Currency Assets) 0 155919 -155919 95326 0 95326 4 Total assets/liabilities 2657054 2478702 178352 3352732 3251167 101565 4.1 Equity and investment fund shares 1567963 1536583 31380 1260751 1342621 -81870 4.2 Debt instruments 969652 774102 195550 1959624 1888601 71023 4.3 Other financial assets and liabilities 119439 168016 -48578 132357 19945 112412 5 Net errors and omissions 0 3756 -3756 7142 0 7142 Note: P: Preliminary. 116 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 44: India’s International Investment Position (US$ Million) Item As on Financial Year/Quarter End 2024-25 2024 2025 Sep. Jun. Sep. Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1. Direct investment Abroad/in India 270441 556981 254440 555427 279381 571150 287822 562167 1.1 Equity Capital* 173559 521931 162382 522784 179652 535345 186142 525772 1.2 Other Capital 96882 35050 92058 32643 99729 35804 101679 36395 2. Portfolio investment 15426 272037 12366 294342 16305 272551 13352 258740 2.1 Equity 10391 141938 11073 170934 13111 147392 9285 133005 2.2 Debt 5034 130098 1293 123408 3193 125159 4067 125735 3. Other investment 179744 633985 151739 627923 187449 650275 188635 643296 3.1 Trade credit 33680 131163 32997 131221 33680 131087 32206 133987 3.2 Loan 26865 250440 22904 239374 25439 260183 25651 258308 3.3 Currency and Deposits 80425 167598 57076 164076 83622 171749 80770 168875 3.4 Other Assets/Liabilities 38774 62797 38762 70807 44708 64520 50009 59440 3.5 Special drawing rights (Net) 21987 22445 22737 22687 4. Reserves 668326 705782 698118 700089 5. Total Assets/ Liabilities 1133937 1463003 1124327 1477692 1181253 1493976 1189897 1464202 6. Net IIP (Assets - Liabilities) -329066 -353364 -312723 -274305 Note: * Equity capital includes share of investment funds and reinvested earnings. RBI Bulletin February 2026 117CURRENT STATISTICS Payment and Settlement Systems No. 45: Payment System Indicators PART I - Payment System Indicators - Payment & Settlement System Statistics System Volume (Lakh) Value (₹ Crore) FY 2024-25 2024 2025 FY 2024-25 2024 2025 Dec. Nov. Dec. Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 A. Settlement Systems Financial Market Infrastructures (FMIs) 1 CCIL Operated Systems (1.1 to 1.3) 47.40 3.78 4.08 5.07 296218030 27448820 28209256 34813891 1.1 Govt. Securities Clearing (1.1.1 to 1.1.3) 17.87 1.49 1.53 1.71 185733719 16506680 17161813 20459216 1.1.1 Outright 10.56 0.84 0.88 0.94 16056018 1348782 1226375 1358772 1.1.2 Repo 4.72 0.41 0.44 0.51 77286611 6377679 7838569 9176297 1.1.3 Tri-party Repo 2.58 0.24 0.21 0.26 92391091 8780219 8096869 9924147 1.2 Forex Clearing 28.06 2.16 2.46 3.27 100639565 9919285 10100567 13484010 1.3 Rupee Derivatives @ 1.46 0.13 0.08 0.10 9844746 1022855 946876 870666 B. Payment Systems I Financial Market Infrastructures (FMIs) - - - - - - - - 1 Credit Transfers - RTGS (1.1 to 1.2) 3024.55 262.29 284.89 317.67 201387682 19163587 16881605 21969481 1.1 Customer Transactions 3010.32 261.11 283.75 316.41 181153129 17161423 15505696 19992108 1.2 Interbank Transactions 14.23 1.17 1.14 1.26 20234553 2002163 1375908 1977373 II Retail 2 Credit Transfers - Retail (2.1 to 2.6) 2061014.91 183786.41 221600.52 232522.27 79881976 6935632 7313610 8086110 2.1 AePS (Fund Transfers) @ 3.64 0.31 0.26 0.21 190 17 11 12 2.2 APBS $ 32964.43 2451.41 3375.31 2357.78 554034 58705 69483 81224 2.3 IMPS 56249.68 4411.64 3689.31 3799.33 7139110 601549 615177 662452 2.4 NACH Cr $ 16938.86 1315.94 1690.81 1240.69 1670223 135695 163208 168800 2.5 NEFT 96198.05 8307.02 8175.04 8777.58 44461464 3814966 3834099 4376909 2.6 UPI @ 1858660.25 167300.09 204669.79 216346.68 26056955 2324700 2631633 2796713 2.6.1 of which USSD @ 17.24 1.56 0.56 0.52 185 16 7 5 3 Debit Transfers and Direct Debits (3.1 to 3.3) 21659.95 1905.47 1987.04 2012.39 2208583 198303 226304 242667 3.1 BHIM Aadhaar Pay @ 230.08 17.18 19.28 17.39 6907 547 609 600 3.2 NACH Dr $ 19762.28 1738.32 1835.73 1858.15 2199327 197549 225517 241878 3.3 NETC (linked to bank account) @ 1667.59 149.97 132.03 136.85 2349 207 178 189 4 Card Payments (4.1 to 4.2) 63861.15 5608.59 6041.95 6447.58 2605110 228548 222942 241961 4.1 Credit Cards (4.1.1 to 4.1.2) 47740.76 4328.50 5029.84 5398.34 2109197 187949 188799 204687 4.1.1 PoS based $ 24571.10 2240.03 2538.40 2726.32 795022 73048 75640 78476 4.1.2 Others $ 23169.66 2088.46 2491.45 2672.02 1314175 114901 113159 126210 4.2 Debit Cards (4.2.1 to 4.2.1 ) 16120.39 1280.10 1012.11 1049.24 495914 40599 34143 37274 4.2.1 PoS based $ 11980.33 964.50 763.31 794.35 332556 27609 22754 24599 4.2.2 Others $ 4140.06 315.60 248.80 254.89 163358 12990 11389 12675 5 Prepaid Payment Instruments (5.1 to 5.2) 70254.08 6377.99 8973.35 9755.15 216751 18992 24639 27044 5.1 Wallets 52898.40 4830.75 7347.33 8094.62 154066 14437 19265 20834 5.2 Cards (5.2.1 to 5.2.2) 17355.68 1547.24 1626.02 1660.53 62686 4556 5374 6210 5.2.1 PoS based $ 8240.14 684.93 682.35 694.23 11512 991 1365 1391 5.2.2 Others $ 9115.54 862.31 943.66 966.30 51174 3565 4010 4819 6 Paper-based Instruments (6.1 to 6.2) 6095.38 506.56 448.60 476.39 7113350 587879 570251 620352 6.1 CTS (NPCI Managed) 6095.38 506.56 448.60 476.39 7113350 587879 570251 620352 6.2 Others 0.00 – – – – – – – Total - Retail Payments (2+3+4+5+6) 2222885.46198185.02 239051.46 251213.79 92025771 7969354 8357746 9218135 Total Payments (1+2+3+4+5+6) 2225910.01198447.31 239336.34 251531.46293413453 27132941 25239350 31187617 Total Digital Payments (1+2+3+4+5) 2219814.63197940.75 238887.74 251055.07286300103 26545062 24669100 30567264 118 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS PART II - Payment Modes and Channels System Volume (Lakh) Value (₹ Crore) 2024 2025 2024 2025 FY 2024-25 FY 2024-25 Dec. Nov. Dec. Dec. Nov. Dec. 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 A. Other Payment Channels 1 Mobile Payments (mobile app based) (1.1 to 1.2) 1756976.91 156763.28 187787.15 198740.92 39206221 3455808 3769403 4029352 1.1 Intra-bank $ 110801.96 9183.14 10306.94 10679.51 7207439 618347 637681 694233 1.2 Inter-bank $ 1646174.95 147580.14 177480.21 188061.41 31998782 2837461 3131722 3335119 2 Internet Payments (Netbanking / Internet Browser Based) @ (2.1 to 2.2) 47478.09 4072.71 3527.10 3757.66 131858133 12203095 11864143 15193135 2.1 Intra-bank @ 13056.37 1155.00 809.63 875.29 69086996 6414756 6241771 8063055 2.2 Inter-bank @ 34421.72 2917.71 2717.48 2882.36 62771136 5788339 5622372 7130080 B. ATMs 3 Cash Withdrawal at ATMs $ (3.1 to 3.3) 60308.11 4950.77 4404.78 4469.09 3063077 252471 235313 240222 3.1 Using Credit Cards $ 97.25 8.12 6.72 6.96 5084 429 378 393 3.2 Using Debit Cards $ 59965.70 4923.54 4380.23 4444.02 3046987 251161 234055 238925 3.3 Using Pre-paid Cards $ 245.16 19.11 17.83 18.11 11005 881 880 904 4 Cash Withdrawal at PoS $ (4.1 to 4.2) 3.58 0.29 0.14 0.14 37 3 2 2 4.1 Using Debit Cards $ 3.33 0.26 0.12 0.12 35 3 2 2 4.2 Using Pre-paid Cards $ 0.25 0.03 0.02 0.02 3 0 0 0 5 Cash Withrawal at Micro ATMs @ 11640.55 910.87 1048.96 926.03 296622 23195 27358 24083 5.1 AePS @ 11640.55 910.87 1048.96 926.03 296622 23195 27358 24083 PART III - Payment Infrastructures (Lakh) System As on 2024 2025 March Dec. Nov. Dec. 2025 1 2 3 4 Payment System Infrastructures 1 Number of Cards (1.1 to 1.2) 11006.97 10990.04 11465.79 11501.30 1.1 Credit Cards 1098.85 1080.56 1148.76 1157.84 1.2 Debit Cards 9908.12 9909.48 10317.03 10343.46 2 Number of PPIs @ (2.1 to 2.2) 13401.46 13272.19 19107.13 20873.16 2.1 Wallets @ 8678.44 8907.25 14410.18 16170.73 2.2 Cards @ 4723.02 4364.94 4696.95 4702.43 3 Number of ATMs (3.1 to 3.2) 2.56 2.55 2.51 2.50 3.1 Bank owned ATMs $ 2.20 2.19 2.13 2.13 3.2 White Label ATMs $ 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 4 Number of Micro ATMs @ 14.82 14.76 14.27 14.15 5 Number of PoS Terminals 110.98 100.01 112.54 114.75 6 Bharat QR @ 67.18 63.83 59.53 58.90 7 UPI QR * 6579.30 6335.30 7282.00 7313.65 @: New inclusion w.e.f. November 2019 #: Data reported by Co-operative Banks, LABs and RRBs included with effect from December 2021. $ : Inclusion separately initiated from November 2019 - would have been part of other items hitherto. *: New inclusion w.e.f. September 2020; Includes only static UPI QR Code Note : 1. Data is provisional. 2. ECS (Debit and Credit) has been merged with NACH with effect from January 31, 2020. 3. The data from November 2019 onwards for card payments (Debit/Credit cards) and Prepaid Payment Instruments (PPIs) may not be comparable with earlier months/ periods, as more granular data is being 4. Only domestic financial transactions are considered. The new format captures e-commerce transactions; transactions using FASTags, digital bill payments and card-to-card transfer through ATMs, etc.. published along with revision in data definitions. Also, failed transactions, chargebacks, reversals, expired cards/ wallets, are excluded. Part I-A. Settlement systems 1.1.3: Tri- party Repo under the securities segment has been operationalised from November 05, 2018. Part I-B. Payments systems 4.1.2: ‘Others’ includes e-commerce transactions and digital bill payments through ATMs, etc. 4.2.2: ‘Others’ includes e-commerce transactions, card to card transfers and digital bill payments through ATMs, etc 5. Available from December 2010. 5.1: includes purchase of goods and services and fund transfer through wallets. 5.2.2: includes usage of PPI Cards for online transactions and other transactions. 6.1: Pertain to three grids – Mumbai, New Delhi and Chennai. 6.2: ‘Others’ comprises of Non-MICR transactions which pertains to clearing houses managed by 21 banks. Part II-A. Other payment channels 1: Mobile Payments – o Include transactions done through mobile apps of banks and UPI apps. o The data from July 2017 includes only individual payments and corporate payments initiated, processed, and authorised using mobile device. Other corporate payments which are not initiated, processed, and authorised using mobile device are excluded. 2: Internet Payments – includes only e-commerce transactions through ‘netbanking’ and any financial transaction using internet banking website of the bank. Part II-B. ATMs 3.3 and 4.2: only relates to transactions using bank issued PPIs. Part III. Payment systems infrastructure 3: Includes ATMs deployed by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) and White Label ATM Operators (WLAOs). WLAs are included from April 2014 onwards. RBI Bulletin February 2026 119CURRENT STATISTICS Occasional Series No. 46: Small Savings (₹ Crore) Scheme 2024-25 2024 2025 Aug. Jun. Jul. Aug. 1 2 3 4 5 1 Small Savings Receipts 192292 12130 23045 19184 8699 Outstanding 2052408 1940611 2101723 2120608 2129278 1.1 Total Deposits Receipts 144769 9998 20808 17444 8336 Outstanding 1443556 1361210 1490623 1508067 1516403 1.1.1 Post Office Saving Bank Deposits Receipts 20641 -205 4681 4384 4823 Outstanding 212332 199017 215091 219475 224298 1.1.2 Sukanya Samriddhi Yojna Receipts 41391 2005 2456 1943 775 Outstanding 199001 169154 207352 209295 210070 1.1.3 National Saving Scheme, 1987 Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 1.1.4 National Saving Scheme, 1992 Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 1.1.5 Monthly Income Scheme Receipts 16620 1710 2170 2049 387 Outstanding 285630 278161 291795 293844 294231 1.1.6 Senior Citizen Scheme 2004 Receipts 24859 2436 3310 2840 659 Outstanding 200326 187824 208642 211482 212141 1.1.7 Post Office Time Deposits Receipts 32755 3052 5269 5025 1086 Outstanding 338531 322122 351401 356426 357512 1.1.7.1 1 year Time Deposits Outstanding 165641 152099 174422 178088 178875 1.1.7.2 2 year Time Deposits Outstanding 14819 13491 15974 16439 16548 1.1.7.3 3 year Time Deposits Outstanding 10816 9773 11513 11801 11864 1.1.7.4 5 year Time Deposits Outstanding 147255 146759 149492 150098 150225 1.1.8 Post Office Recurring Deposits Receipts 9171 1005 3050 1299 630 Outstanding 206307 202963 215524 216823 217453 1.1.9 Post Office Cumulative Time Deposits Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 1.1.10 Other Deposits Receipts -676 -6 -128 -96 -24 Outstanding 1071 1617 459 363 339 1.1.11 PM Care for children Receipts 8 1 0 0 0 Outstanding 358 352 359 359 359 1.2 Saving Certificates Receipts 32992 1788 2283 1686 278 Outstanding 446106 431065 450867 452254 452503 1.2.1 National Savings Certificate VIII issue Receipts 10891 1180 2270 1845 447 Outstanding 194798 190261 199906 201751 202198 1.2.2 Indira Vikas Patras Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 1.2.3 Kisan Vikas Patras Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 1.2.4 Kisan Vikas Patras - 2014 Receipts 12166 -174 1874 1440 205 Outstanding 232726 225184 237545 238985 239190 1.2.5 National Saving Certificate VI issue Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 1.2.6 National Saving Certificate VII issue Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 1.2.7 M.S. Certificates Receipts 9935 782 -1861 -1599 -374 Outstanding 28212 22543 24274 22675 22301 1.2.8 Other Certificates Outstanding -9630 -6923 -10858 -11157 -11186 1.3 Public Provident Fund Receipts 14531 344 -46 54 85 Outstanding 162746 148336 160233 160287 160372 Note : Data on receipts from April 2017 are net receipts, i.e., gross receipt minus gross payment. Source: Accountant General, Post and Telegraphs. 120 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 47 : Ownership Pattern of Central and State Governments Securities (Per cent) Central Government Dated Securities 2024 2025 Category Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. 1 2 3 4 5 (A) Total (in ₹. Crore) 11271589 11422728 11642652 11854200 12137000 1 Commercial Banks 37.55 37.98 36.18 35.28 35.43 2 Co-operative Banks 1.35 1.36 1.29 1.29 1.32 3 Non-Bank PDs 0.77 0.65 0.76 0.59 0.60 4 Insurance Companies 25.95 26.14 25.81 25.95 25.81 5 Mutual Funds 3.14 3.11 2.68 2.46 2.77 6 Provident Funds 4.25 4.25 4.24 4.35 4.45 7 Pension Funds 4.86 5.05 4.91 4.96 4.90 8 Financial Institutions 0.63 0.64 0.71 0.74 0.76 9 Corporates 1.60 1.45 1.49 1.26 1.25 10 Foreign Portfolio Investors 2.80 2.81 3.12 2.80 2.97 11 RBI 11.16 10.55 12.78 14.21 13.54 12 Others 5.92 6.01 6.01 6.13 6.22 12.1 State Governments 2.19 2.21 2.25 2.29 2.37 State Governments Securities 2024 2025 Category Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. 1 2 3 4 5 (B) Total (in ₹. Crore) 5909490 6055711 6399564 6524417 6721556 1 Commercial Banks 34.39 35.11 35.40 35.54 35.00 2 Co-operative Banks 3.29 3.22 3.08 3.02 3.06 3 Non-Bank PDs 0.60 0.53 0.61 0.60 0.65 4 Insurance Companies 25.56 25.16 24.07 24.12 24.12 5 Mutual Funds 1.93 1.89 1.93 1.84 2.16 6 Provident Funds 23.02 22.90 23.60 23.72 23.65 7 Pension Funds 4.87 4.82 5.07 4.96 5.10 8 Financial Institutions 1.57 1.58 1.48 1.59 1.61 9 Corporates 1.95 1.97 2.05 1.93 1.93 10 Foreign Portfolio Investors 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.02 11 RBI 0.60 0.58 0.55 0.54 0.53 12 Others 2.18 2.19 2.10 2.12 2.17 12.1 State Governments 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.27 Treasury Bills 2024 2025 Category Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. 1 2 3 4 5 (C) Total (in ₹. Crore) 747242 760045 790381 784059 754280 1 Commercial Banks 44.74 40.45 46.58 42.87 39.45 2 Co-operative Banks 1.58 1.22 2.17 1.80 1.58 3 Non-Bank PDs 2.28 1.41 2.09 1.10 2.03 4 Insurance Companies 5.26 4.73 4.23 4.07 4.26 5 Mutual Funds 15.06 15.41 16.15 15.72 17.60 6 Provident Funds 0.26 0.04 0.20 0.09 0.07 7 Pension Funds 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 8 Financial Institutions 6.36 6.77 7.73 6.31 6.34 9 Corporates 4.66 4.56 4.50 3.77 3.80 10 Foreign Portfolio Investors 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.02 0.01 11 RBI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12 Others 19.65 25.29 16.23 24.26 24.85 12.1 State Governments 14.95 20.11 11.23 18.34 18.53 Notes: (1) The table format is revised since monthly Bulletin for the month of June 2023. (2) Central Government Dated Securities include special securities and Sovereign Gold Bonds. (3) State Government Securities include special bonds issued under Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY). (4) Bank PDs are clubbed under Commercial Banks. (5) The category ‘Others’ comprises State Governments, DICGC, PSUs, Trusts, Foreign Central Banks, HUF/ Individuals etc. (6) Data since September 2023 includes the impact of the merger of a non-bank with a bank. RBI Bulletin February 2026 121CURRENT STATISTICS No. 48: Combined Receipts and Disbursements of the Central and State Governments (₹ Crore) Item 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 RE 2025-26 BE 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Total Disbursements 6353359 7098451 7880522 8579810 9780079 10552103 1.1 Developmental 3823423 4189146 4701611 5080834 5902870 6267297 1.1.1 Revenue 3150221 3255207 3574503 3662324 4242036 4460702 1.1.2 Capital 550358 861777 1042159 1330917 1516738 1641425 1.1.3 Loans 122844 72163 84949 87593 144096 165170 1.2 Non-Developmental 2442941 2810388 3069896 3379466 3740051 4132065 1.2.1 Revenue 2271637 2602750 2895864 3182576 3547080 3867191 1.2.1.1 Interest Payments 1060602 1226672 1377807 1557492 1685503 1883576 1.2.2 Capital 169155 175519 171131 192384 187711 259891 1.2.3 Loans 2148 32119 2902 4506 5259 4983 1.3 Others 86995 98916 109015 119510 137158 152741 2 Total Receipts 6397162 7156342 7855370 8637956 9518133 10451896 2.1 Revenue Receipts 3688030 4823821 5447913 6105757 7125956 7875214 2.1.1 Tax Receipts 3193390 4160414 4809044 5407849 6080098 6808169 2.1.1.1 Taxes on commodities and services 2076013 2626553 2865541 3170243 3545348 3937254 2.1.1.2 Taxes on Income and Property 1114805 1530636 1939559 2233860 2530235 2866137 2.1.1.3 Taxes of Union Territories (Without Legislature) 2572 3225 3943 3745 4516 4778 2.1.2 Non-Tax Receipts 494640 663407 638870 697908 1045858 1067045 2.1.2.1 Interest Receipts 33448 35250 42975 53199 56247 70403 2.2 Non-debt Capital Receipts 64994 44077 62716 62275 62562 104103 2.2.1 Recovery of Loans & Advances 16951 27665 15970 28918 26747 32172 2.2.2 Disinvestment proceeds 48044 16412 46746 33357 35815 71931 3 Gross Fiscal Deficit [ 1 - ( 2.1 + 2.2 ) ] 2600335 2230553 2369892 2411778 2591561 2572787 3A Sources of Financing: Institution-wise 3A.1 Domestic Financing 2530155 2194406 2332768 2356657 2559568 2549296 3A.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government 890012 627255 687904 438038 907254 ... 3A.1.1.1 Net RBI Credit to Government 107493 350911 529 -257913 314894 ... 3A.1.2 Non-Bank Credit to Government 1640143 1567151 1644864 1918619 1652314 ... 3A.2 External Financing 70180 36147 37124 55121 31992 23490 3B Sources of Financing: Instrument-wise 3B.1 Domestic Financing 2530155 2194406 2332768 2356657 2559568 2549296 3B.1.1 Market Borrowings (net) 1696012 1213169 1651076 1921529 1996297 2050268 3B.1.2 Small Savings (net) 458801 526693 358764 415472 437189 304076 3B.1.3 State Provident Funds (net) 41273 28100 13880 19847 16957 17531 3B.1.4 Reserve Funds 4545 42153 68803 90431 76177 42662 3B.1.5 Deposits and Advances 25682 42203 51989 22555 7954 48430 3B.1.6 Cash Balances -43802 -57891 25152 -58146 261946 100207 3B.1.7 Others 347643 399980 163104 -55032 -236951 -13878 3B.2 External Financing 70180 36147 37124 55121 31992 23490 4 Total Disbursements as per cent of GDP 32.0 30.1 29.3 28.5 29.6 29.6 5 Total Receipts as per cent of GDP 32.2 30.3 29.2 28.7 28.8 29.3 6 Revenue Receipts as per cent of GDP 18.6 20.4 20.3 20.3 21.5 22.1 7 Tax Receipts as per cent of GDP 16.1 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.4 19.1 8 Gross Fiscal Deficit as per cent of GDP 13.1 9.5 8.8 8.0 7.8 7.2 … : Not available; RE: Revised Estimates; BE: Budget Estimates Source : Budget Documents of Central and State Governments. Note: GDP data is based on 2011-12 base. GDP for 2025-26 is from Union Budget 2025-26. Data pertains to 28 States and 8 Union Territories. 1 & 2: Data are net of repayments of the Central Government (including repayments to the NSSF) and State Governments. 1.3: Represents compensation and assignments by States to local bodies and Panchayati Raj institutions. 2:D ata are net of variation in cash balances of the Central and State Governments and includes borrowing receipts of the Central and State Governments. 2.2.2: From 2022-23 onwards, disinvestment receipts refer to miscellaneous capital receipts. 3A.1.1: Data as per RBI records. 3B.1.1:B orrowings through dated securities. 3B.1.2:R epresent net investment in Central and State Governments’ special securities by the National Small Savings Fund (NSSF). This data may vary from previous publications due to adjustments across components with availability of new data. 3B.1.6:I nclude Ways and Means Advances by the Centre to the State Governments. 3B.1.7:I nclude Treasury Bills, loans from financial institutions, insurance and pension funds, remittances, cash balance investment account. 122 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 49: Financial Accommodation Availed by State Governments under various Facilities (₹ Crore) During December-2025 Sr. State/Union Territory Special Drawing Ways and Means Overdraft (OD) No Facility (SDF) Advances (WMA) Average Number Average Number Average Number amount of days amount of days amount of days availed availed availed availed availed availed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 Andhra Pradesh 6808.18 31 2137.48 28 2444.63 14 2 Arunachal Pradesh - - - - - - 3 Assam 804.08 8 - - - - 4 Bihar - - - - - - 5 Chhattisgarh 1278.21 1 - - - - 6 Goa - - - - - - 7 Gujarat - - - - - - 8 Haryana 475.53 8 - - - - 9 Himachal Pradesh - - 635.63 30 289.23 15 10 Jammu & Kashmir UT 38.57 2 218.97 2 - - 11 Jharkhand 657.44 1 - - - - 12 Karnataka - - - - - - 13 Kerala 1704.75 29 989.36 22 - - 14 Madhya Pradesh - - - - - - 15 Maharashtra - - - - - - 16 Manipur 84.57 21 88.51 9 - - 17 Meghalaya 589.47 29 241.00 20 251.71 14 18 Mizoram 112.51 9 - - - - 19 Nagaland 165.85 26 - - - - 20 Odisha - - - - - - 21 Puducherry - - - - - - 22 Punjab 5955.06 31 988.45 29 338.64 5 23 Rajasthan 2440.14 28 1442.21 9 - - 24 Tamil Nadu - - - - - - 25 Telangana 4840.00 31 624.48 16 942.91 2 26 Tripura - - - - - - 27 Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - 28 Uttarakhand 1592.87 31 - - - - 29 West Bengal - - - - - - Notes: 1. SDF is availed by State Governments against the collateral of Consolidated Sinking Fund (CSF), Guarantee Redemption Fund (GRF) & Auction Treasury Bills (ATBs) balances and other investments in government securities. 2. WMA is advance by Reserve Bank of India to State Governments for meeting temporary cash mismatches. 3. OD is advanced to State Governments beyond their WMA limits. 4. Average amount availed is the total accommodation (SDF/WMA/OD) availed divided by number of days for which accommodation was extended during the month. 5. - : Nil. Source: Reserve Bank of India. RBI Bulletin February 2026 123CURRENT STATISTICS No. 50: Investments by State Governments (₹ Crore) As on end of December 2025 Consolidated Guarantee Budget Sr. State/Union Auction Treasury Sinking Fund Redemption Fund Stabilisation No Territory Bills (ATBs) (CSF) (GRF) Fund (BSF) 1 2 3 4 5 1 Andhra Pradesh 11880 1216 - 0 2 Arunachal Pradesh 3145 8 - 11900 3 Assam 8488 96 - 0 4 Bihar 15288 1204 - 16500 5 Chhattisgarh 8777 1022 - 15499 6 Goa 1250 438 - 0 7 Gujarat 16342 546 - 4000 8 Haryana 2783 1814 - 0 9 Himachal Pradesh - - - 0 10 Jammu & Kashmir UT 56 56 - 0 11 Jharkhand 3198 - 805 0 12 Karnataka 22053 2485 - 30686 13 Kerala 3452 249 - 0 14 Madhya Pradesh - 1362 - 1300 15 Maharashtra 74887 3283 - 0 16 Manipur 74 149 - 0 17 Meghalaya 1361 116 - 0 18 Mizoram 589 103 - 0 19 Nagaland 2023 49 - 0 20 Odisha 19522 2181 21918 26929 21 Puducherry 618 - - 2350 22 Punjab 10738 982 - 0 23 Rajasthan 2981 1460 - 4800 24 Tamil Nadu 3697 - - 12666 25 Telangana 8431 1846 - 0 26 Tripura 1405 32 - 0 27 Uttarakhand 6045 325 - 0 28 Uttar Pradesh 25165 6572 - 35000 29 West Bengal 15265 1153 - 6000 Total 269514 28747 22723 167631 Note: 1. CSF, GRF and BSF are reserve funds maintained with RBI. 2. ATBs include Treasury bills of 91 days, 182 days and 364 days purchased through non-competitive bidding in the primary market. 3. '-: Not Applicable (not a member of the scheme). 124 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 51: Market Borrowings of State Governments (₹ Crore) 2025-26 Total amount 2023-24 2024-25 raised, so far in October November December 2025-26 Sr. State No. Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Gross Net Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 Andhra Pradesh 68400 55330 78205 57123 3900 2400 3000 2450 7000 5000 56072 43022 2 Arunachal Pradesh 902 672 1010 704 - - 200 200 375 375 575 445 3 Assam 18500 16000 19000 13850 - -500 - -500 1900 1900 10204 7754 4 Bihar 47612 29910 47546 30890 5500 4000 3000 1000 5310 5310 39810 34232 5 Chhattisgarh 32000 26213 24500 16913 2000 - 3000 200 2000 500 11470 4470 6 Goa 2550 1560 1050 250 200 200 100 -50 100 -54 1200 196 7 Gujarat 30500 11947 38200 16280 3000 700 4000 1700 6000 3200 32500 14040 8 Haryana 47500 28364 49500 31710 6000 6000 1000 200 4000 2100 30500 18270 9 Himachal Pradesh 8072 5856 7359 4725 200 -300 300 - 1350 1350 8269 6119 10 Jammu & Kashmir UT 16337 13904 13170 11416 1000 860 1150 850 1070 920 8625 6585 11 Jharkhand 1000 -2505 3500 -2005 - -500 - -1000 - -500 2000 -1000 12 Karnataka 81000 63003 92025 71525 - -3000 - -6000 12000 7813 12000 -2188 13 Kerala 42438 26638 53666 37966 2000 500 3500 2250 3850 2800 36338 22538 14 Madhya Pradesh 38500 26264 63400 47206 8200 8200 4000 500 6400 4900 49477 38477 15 Maharashtra 110000 79738 123000 90917 19000 16000 4000 - 10000 6000 99000 74000 16 Manipur 1426 1076 1500 1037 - - 150 75 150 75 1650 1150 17 Meghalaya 1364 912 1882 997 - -360 - -100 984 934 2634 1604 18 Mizoram 901 641 1169 939 110 110 110 110 105 105 800 665 19 Nagaland 2551 2016 1550 950 - - - -100 500 500 900 450 20 Odisha 0 -4658 20780 17780 1000 1000 - - 1000 500 8000 7500 21 Puducherry 1100 475 1600 880 - -125 - -125 350 350 900 450 22 Punjab 42386 29517 40828 32466 4000 2500 517 17 2000 1400 31750 21496 23 Rajasthan 73624 49718 75185 49479 10000 7980 6200 3450 6000 4500 60300 40468 24 Sikkim 1916 1701 1951 1621 500 500 500 275 - - 1500 1275 25 Tamil Nadu 113001 75970 123625 89894 11000 6525 13000 8125 23000 20250 95300 65550 26 Telangana 49618 39385 56209 42199 5000 3798 9100 8100 9300 8300 69300 55950 27 Tripura 0 -550 0 -150 - - - -300 500 500 1300 800 28 Uttar Pradesh 97650 85335 45000 23185 5500 1524 6000 4000 11015 9437 34515 12728 29 Uttarakhand 6300 3800 10400 8000 1500 1250 1000 600 1500 1300 7000 4400 30 West Bengal 69910 48910 76500 54600 1500 500 2000 -700 11965 9665 39465 24965 Grand Total 1007058 717140 1073310 753345 91110 59763 65827 25227 129724 99429 753353 506411 - : Nil. Note: The State of J&K has ceased to exist constitutionally from October 31, 2019 and the liabilities of the State continue to remain as liabilities of the new UT of Jammu and Kashmir. Source: Reserve Bank of India. RBI Bulletin February 2026 125CURRENT STATISTICS No. 52 (a): Flow of Financial Assets and Liabilities of Households - Instrument-wise (Amount in ` Crore) 2022-23 Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Net Financial Assets (I-II) 287802.7 297217.6 293954.9 451660.3 1330635.4 Per cent of GDP 4.4 4.6 4.3 6.4 4.9 I. Financial Assets 577822.4 632335.6 748109.7 968986.1 2927253.7 Per cent of GDP 8.9 9.8 11.0 13.6 10.9 of which: 1.Total Deposits (a+b) 185429.1 317361.2 280233.1 325852.7 1108876.2 (a) Bank Deposits 163172.4 299532.7 256399.7 307866.8 1026971.5 i. Commercial Banks 158613.3 300565.0 248459.8 284968.0 992606.2 ii. Co-operative Banks 4559.0 -1032.4 7939.8 22898.9 34365.3 (b) Non-Bank Deposits 22256.8 17828.6 23833.5 17985.9 81904.7 of which: Other Financial Institutions (i+ii) 6504.8 2076.7 8081.6 2234.0 18897.1 i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 4230.6 3267.2 3246.9 3945.8 14690.4 ii. Housing Finance Companies 2274.2 -1190.5 4834.7 -1711.8 4206.6 2. Life Insurance Funds 73357.5 151737.1 167581.7 156268.5 548944.9 3. Provident and Pension Funds (including PPF) 146719.1 118171.9 136388.4 216513.6 617793.1 4. Currency 66438.9 -54579.3 76760.1 148990.1 237609.7 5. Investments 51502.6 48530.1 49778.6 64150.6 213961.9 of which: (a) Mutual Funds 35443.5 44484.0 40205.9 58954.5 179087.8 (b) Equity 13560.9 1378.2 6434.1 1664.9 23038.1 6. Small Savings (excluding PPF) 54375.1 51114.5 37367.7 57210.6 200068.0 II. Financial Liabilities 290019.7 335118.0 454154.8 517325.8 1596618.3 Per cent of GDP 4.5 5.2 6.7 7.3 5.9 Loans/Borrowings 1. Financial Corporations (a+b) 289781.5 334879.7 453916.6 517087.5 1595665.3 (a) Banking Sector 234235.0 263450.2 370782.9 383843.2 1252311.4 of which: i. Commercial Banks 230283.8 261265.3 368304.6 331291.0 1191144.8 (b) Other Financial Institutions 55546.4 71429.5 83133.7 133244.3 343353.9 i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 30531.7 36650.3 55791.7 94565.3 217539.1 ii. Housing Finance Companies 22336.7 33031.2 24903.3 36745.8 117017.0 iii. Insurance Corporations 2678.0 1747.9 2438.7 1933.2 8797.8 2. Non-Financial Corporations (Private Corporate Business) 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 135.0 3. General Government 204.5 204.5 204.5 204.5 818.0 126 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 52 (a): Flow of Financial Assets and Liabilities of Households - Instrument-wise (Contd.) (Amount in ` Crore) 2023-24 Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Net Financial Assets (I-II) 349607.1 283994.4 294431.6 666547.4 1594580.4 Per cent of GDP 4.8 3.9 3.8 8.4 5.3 I. Financial Assets 671244.1 810128.8 805066.2 1187279.1 3473718.2 Per cent of GDP 9.3 11.2 10.4 14.9 11.5 of which: 1.Total Deposits (a+b) 266680.3 407948.0 296931.3 406706.9 1378266.4 (a) Bank Deposits 253004.1 501768.5 277432.0 390720.4 1422924.9 i. Commercial Banks 243833.9 502260.7 280096.7 383460.6 1409651.9 ii. Co-operative Banks 9170.2 -492.2 -2664.7 7259.8 13273.0 (b) Non-Bank Deposits 13676.2 -93820.5 19499.4 15986.5 -44658.5 of which: Other Financial Institutions (i+ii) -485.4 -107982.1 5337.7 1824.9 -101304.9 i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 6119.3 4782.3 4895.8 1942.9 17740.3 ii. Housing Finance Companies -6604.7 -112764.4 441.9 -118.0 -119045.2 2. Life Insurance Funds 157301.9 140356.8 160135.2 189267.6 647061.4 3. Provident and Pension Funds (including PPF) 163686.0 148356.1 153435.1 253882.9 719360.2 4. Currency -48636.2 -36700.8 56719.0 146643.8 118025.7 5. Investments 41014.3 72664.6 79238.2 108336.6 301253.8 of which: (a) Mutual Funds 32085.6 55768.8 60134.6 90973.0 238962.1 (b) Equity 3756.7 7146.3 9941.1 8236.1 29080.1 6. Small Savings (excluding PPF) 91197.8 77504.1 58607.4 82441.4 309750.7 II. Financial Liabilities 321637.1 526134.4 510634.6 520731.7 1879137.8 Per cent of GDP 4.5 7.3 6.6 6.5 6.2 Loans/Borrowings 1. Financial Corporations (a+b) 321519.8 526016.2 510516.4 520613.5 1878665.8 (a) Banking Sector 213606.3 868873.9 402647.1 392330.5 1877457.7 of which: i. Commercial Banks 208026.5 875654.0 389898.0 382557.9 1856136.4 (b) Other Financial Institutions 107913.6 -342857.7 107869.2 128283.0 1208.0 i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 81448.8 59683.7 85031.8 100836.5 327000.7 ii. Housing Finance Companies 23784.0 -404294.0 21233.4 25852.9 -333423.7 iii. Insurance Corporations 2680.7 1752.6 1604.0 1593.6 7631.0 2. Non-Financial Corporations (Private Corporate Business) 33.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 138.0 3. General Government 83.5 83.5 83.5 83.5 334.0 RBI Bulletin February 2026 127CURRENT STATISTICS No. 52 (a): Flow of Financial Assets and Liabilities of Households - Instrument-wise (Concld.) (Amount in ` Crore) 2024-25 Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Net Financial Assets (I-II) 551994.2 496676.1 271043.1 674489.0 1994202.4 Per cent of GDP 7.0 6.3 3.2 7.6 6.0 I. Financial Assets 840665.3 901135.4 689663.5 1129381.1 3560845.4 Per cent of GDP 10.6 11.5 8.1 12.8 10.8 of which: 1.Total Deposits (a+b) 274567.9 403591.4 158320.8 418183.6 1254663.6 (a) Bank Deposits 254885.4 388328.6 141290.0 401577.5 1186081.4 i. Commercial Banks 251171.1 389734.0 147864.7 395337.4 1184107.2 ii. Co-operative Banks 3714.3 -1405.4 -6574.7 6240.0 1974.2 (b) Non-Bank Deposits 19682.4 15262.8 17030.8 16606.1 68582.2 of which: Other Financial Institutions (i+ii) 7461.4 3041.8 4809.8 4385.1 19698.2 i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 6289.7 3230.0 4444.5 4220.0 18184.2 ii. Housing Finance Companies 1171.7 -188.2 365.4 165.1 1514.0 2. Life Insurance Funds 175427.0 178835.2 90159.4 90393.0 534814.6 3. Provident and Pension Funds (including PPF) 170218.2 170219.6 170758.3 281332.6 792528.6 4. Currency 34212.5 -57615.2 70840.8 162236.1 209674.1 5. Investments 120638.2 152637.1 159255.2 103720.8 536251.4 of which: (a) Mutual Funds 106987.0 137618.0 124132.0 97193.0 465930.0 (b) Equity 14448.0 15645.0 36063.1 7410.3 73566.5 6. Small Savings (excluding PPF) 65601.6 53467.4 40329.0 73515.0 232913.0 II. Financial Liabilities 288671.1 404459.3 418620.4 454892.1 1566642.9 Per cent of GDP 3.7 5.2 4.9 5.2 4.7 Loans/Borrowings 1. Financial Corporations (a+b) 288492.4 404280.6 418441.7 454713.3 1565928.0 (a) Banking Sector 205040.4 322147.7 319626.6 387045.6 1233860.3 of which: i. Commercial Banks 208525.3 321241.4 302569.3 379856.5 1212192.4 (b) Other Financial Institutions 83452.0 82132.9 98815.0 67667.7 332067.7 i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 65813.7 65488.7 75764.5 39833.9 246900.8 ii. Housing Finance Companies 15125.2 14233.6 20561.4 25756.8 75677.0 iii. Insurance Corporations 2513.1 2410.7 2489.1 2077.1 9489.9 2. Non-Financial Corporations (Private Corporate Business) 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 139.0 3. General Government 144.0 144.0 144.0 144.0 576.0 Notes : 1. Net Financial Savings of households refer to the net financial assets, which are measured as difference of financial asset and liabilities flows. 2. Preliminary estimates for 2024-25 and revised estimates for 2022-23 and 2023-24. 3. The preliminary estimates for 2024-25 will undergo revision with the release of first revised estimates of national income, consumption expenditure, savings, and capital formation, 2024-25 by the NSO. 4. Non-bank deposits apart from other financial institutions, comprises state power utilities, co-operative non credit societies etc. 5. Figures in the columns may not add up to the total due to rounding off. 128 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 52 (b): Stocks of Financial Assets and Liabilities of Households- Select Indicators (Amount in ` Crore) Item Jun-2022 Sep-2022 Dec-2022 Mar-2023 Financial Assets (a+b+c+d+e+f+g+h) 25621348.1 26423992.1 27187715.6 27844981.1 Per cent of GDP 102.8 102.6 103.3 103.5 (a) Bank Deposits (i+ii) 11843527.1 12143059.7 12399459.4 12707326.2 i. Commercial Banks 10987692.1 11288257.2 11536717.0 11821685.0 ii. Co-operative Banks 855834.9 854802.6 862742.4 885641.2 (b) Non-Bank Deposits of which: Other Financial Institutions 216170.0 218246.7 226328.2 228562.2 i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 74794.2 78061.4 81308.3 85254.0 ii. Housing Finance Companies 141375.8 140185.3 145020.0 143308.2 (c) Life Insurance Funds 5325967.3 5559681.9 5786592.6 5795430.6 (d) Currency 2950343.2 2895763.9 2972524.0 3121514.1 (e) Mutual funds 2048097.3 2260209.7 2355315.8 2367792.5 (f) Public Provident Fund (PPF) 851913.4 858591.1 864730.6 939449.0 (g) Pension Funds 744459.2 796454.0 853412.0 898343.0 (h) Small Savings (excluding PPF) 1640870.6 1691985.1 1729352.9 1786563.5 Financial Liabilities (a+b) 8911860.9 9246740.6 9700657.2 10217744.7 Per cent of GDP 35.8 35.9 36.9 38.0 Loans/Borrowings (a) Banking Sector 7095467.7 7358918.0 7729700.9 8113544.1 of which: i. Commercial Banks 6620073.1 6881338.5 7249643.0 7580934.1 ii. Co-operative Banks 473897.0 476024.8 478486.9 530915.0 (b) Other Financial Institutions 1816393.1 1887822.6 1970956.3 2104200.7 of which: i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 869174.9 905825.3 961617.0 1056182.3 ii. Housing Finance Companies 835181.3 868212.5 893115.8 929861.7 iii. Insurance Corporations 112036.9 113784.8 116223.5 118156.7 RBI Bulletin February 2026 129CURRENT STATISTICS No. 52 (b): Stocks of Financial Assets and Liabilities of Households- Select Indicators (Contd.) (Amount in ` Crore) Item Jun-2023 Sep-2023 Dec-2023 Mar-2024 Financial Assets (a+b+c+d+e+f+g+h) 28754605.9 29637615.0 30737884.8 32025210.0 Per cent of GDP 104.2 104.4 105.0 106.3 (a) Bank Deposits (i+ii) 12960330.3 13462098.8 13739530.7 14130251.1 i. Commercial Banks 12065518.9 12567779.6 12847876.2 13231336.9 ii. Co-operative Banks 894811.4 894319.2 891654.5 898914.3 (b) Non-Bank Deposits of which: Other Financial Institutions 228076.8 120094.7 125432.4 127257.3 i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 91373.3 96155.6 101051.4 102994.3 ii. Housing Finance Companies 136703.5 23939.1 24381.0 24263.0 (c) Life Insurance Funds 6064436.9 6255801.1 6553726.0 6820611.8 (d) Currency 3072877.9 3036177.0 3092896.0 3239539.8 (e) Mutual funds 2626046.1 2829859.3 3156299.3 3387208.3 (f) Public Provident Fund (PPF) 955060.6 960343.6 964851.5 1051376.5 (g) Pension Funds 970016.0 1017975.0 1091276.0 1172651.0 (h) Small Savings (excluding PPF) 1877761.2 1955265.4 2013872.8 2096314.2 Financial Liabilities (a+b) 10539264.5 11065280.7 11575797.1 12096410.5 Per cent of GDP 38.2 39.0 39.6 40.2 Loans/Borrowings (a) Banking Sector 8327150.3 9196024.2 9598671.3 9991001.8 of which: i. Commercial Banks 7788960.6 8664614.6 9054512.6 9437070.5 ii. Co-operative Banks 536409.2 529527.7 542240.6 551852.1 (b) Other Financial Institutions 2212114.2 1869256.5 1977125.7 2105408.7 of which: i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 1137631.1 1197314.8 1282346.6 1383183.0 ii. Housing Finance Companies 953645.7 549351.7 570585.1 596438.0 iii. Insurance Corporations 120837.4 122590.0 124194.0 125787.7 130 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS No. 52 (b): Stocks of Financial Assets and Liabilities of Households- Select Indicators (Concld.) (Amount in ` Crore) Item Jun-2024 Sep-2024 Dec-2024 Mar-2025 Financial Assets (a+b+c+d+e+f+g+h) 33253098.6 34421189.5 34532805.6 35264710.9 Per cent of GDP 107.9 109.6 107.2 106.6 (a) Bank Deposits (i+ii) 14385136.5 14773465.1 14914755.1 15316332.6 i. Commercial Banks 13482508.0 13872242.0 14020106.6 14415444.1 ii. Co-operative Banks 902628.6 901223.2 894648.5 900888.5 (b) Non-Bank Deposits of which: Other Financial Institutions 134718.7 137760.5 142570.3 146955.5 i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 109284.0 112514.0 116958.5 121178.5 ii. Housing Finance Companies 25434.7 25246.5 25611.9 25777.0 (c) Life Insurance Funds 7123527.6 7385938.1 7272871.3 7293099.1 (d) Currency 3273752.3 3216137.1 3286977.8 3449213.9 (e) Mutual funds 3866386.1 4291914.4 4224091.7 4128924.5 (f) Public Provident Fund (PPF) 1059829.5 1063056.1 1064212.0 1157449.2 (g) Pension Funds 1247832.0 1337535.0 1371615.0 1443509.0 (h) Small Savings (excluding PPF) 2161915.8 2215383.2 2255712.2 2329227.2 Financial Liabilities (a+b) 12384902.9 12789183.5 13207625.1 13662338.5 Per cent of GDP 40.2 40.7 41.0 41.3 Loans/Borrowings (a) Banking Sector 10196042.2 10518189.9 10837816.5 11224862.1 of which: i. Commercial Banks 9645595.7 9966837.1 10269406.4 10649262.8 ii. Co-operative Banks 548284.4 549069.4 566104.4 573131.8 (b) Other Financial Institutions 2188860.7 2270993.6 2369808.7 2437476.4 of which: i. Non-Banking Financial Companies 1448996.8 1514485.5 1590250.0 1630083.9 ii. Housing Finance Companies 611563.2 625796.8 646358.2 672115.0 iii. Insurance Corporations 128300.7 130711.4 133200.5 135277.5 Notes : 1. Data as ratios to GDP have been calculated based on the Provisional Estimates of National Income 2024-25, released by NSO on May 30, 2025. 2. Pension funds comprises funds with the National Pension Scheme. 3. Outstanding deposits with Small Savings are sourced from the Controller General of Accounts, Government of India. 4. Non-bank deposits apart from other financial institutions, comprises state power utilities, co-operative non credit societies etc. Data for outstanding deposits are available only for other financial institutions. 5. Figures in the columns may not add up to the total due to rounding off. RBI Bulletin February 2026 131CURRENT STATISTICS Explanatory Notes to the Current Statistics Table No. 1 1.2& 6: Annual data are average of months. 3.5 & 3.7: Relate to ratios of increments over financial year so far. 4.1 to 4.4, 4.8,4.9 &5: Relate to the last friday of the month/financial year. 4.5, 4.6 & 4.7: Relate to five major banks on the last Friday of the month/financial year. 4.10 to 4.12: Relate to the last auction day of the month/financial year. 4.13: Relate to last day of the month/ financial year 7.1&7.2: Relate to Foreign trade in US Dollar. Table No. 2 2.1.2: Include paid-up capital, reserve fund and Long-Term Operations Funds. 2.2.2: Include cash, fixed deposits and short-term securities/bonds, e.g., issued by IIFC (UK). Table No. 4 Maturity-wise position of outstanding forward contracts is available at http://nsdp.rbi.org.in under ‘‘Reserves Template’’. Table No. 5 Special refinance facility to Others, i.e. to the EXIM Bank, is closed since March 31, 2013. Table No. 6 For scheduled banks, March-end data pertain to the last reporting Friday. 1.1: Notes in Circulation include CBDC-Retail (R) and CBDC-Wholesale (W). 1.4: Cash on Hand with Banks includes CBDC-W. 2.2: Exclude balances held in IMF Account No.1, RBI employees’ provident fund, pension fund, gratuity and superannuation fund. Table Nos. 7 & 11 3.1 in Table 7 and 2.4 in Table 11: Include foreign currency denominated bonds issued by IIFC (UK). Table No. 8 NM and NM do not include FCNR (B) deposits. 2 3 2.4: Consist of paid-up capital and reserves. 2.5: includes other demand and time liabilities of the banking system. Table No. 9 Financial institutions comprise EXIM Bank, SIDBI, NABARD and NHB. L and L are compiled monthly and L quarterly. 1 2 3 Wherever data are not available, the last available data have been repeated. Table No. 13 Data against column Nos. (1), (2) & (3) are Final and for column Nos. (4) & (5) data are Provisional. 132 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS Table No. 14 Data in column Nos. (4) & (8) are Provisional. Table No. 17 2.1.1: Exclude reserve fund maintained by co-operative societies with State Co-operative Banks 2.1.2: Exclude borrowings from RBI, SBI, IDBI, NABARD, notified banks and State Governments. 4: Include borrowings from IDBI and NABARD. Table No. 25 Primary Dealers (PDs) include banks undertaking PD business. Table No. 31 Exclude private placement and offer for sale. 1: Exclude bonus shares. 2: Include cumulative convertible preference shares and equi-preference shares. Table No. 33 Exclude investment in foreign currency denominated bonds issued by IIFC (UK), SDRs transferred by Government of India to RBI and foreign currency received under SAARC and ACU currency swap arrangements. Foreign currency assets in US dollar take into account appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies (such as Euro, Sterling, Yen and Australian Dollar) held in reserves. Foreign exchange holdings are converted into rupees at rupee-US dollar RBI holding rates. Table No. 35 1.1.1.1.2 & 1.1.1.1.1.4: Estimates. 1.1.1.2: Estimates for latest months. ‘Other capital’ pertains to debt transactions between parent and subsidiaries/branches of FDI enterprises. Data may not tally with the BoP data due to lag in reporting. Table No. 36 1.10: Include items such as subscription to journals, maintenance of investment abroad, student loan repayments and credit card payments. Table No. 37 Increase in indices indicates appreciation of rupee and vice versa. For 6-Currency index, base year 2022-23 is a moving one, which gets updated every year. REER figures are based on Consumer Price Index (combined). The details on methodology used for compilation of NEER/REER indices are available in December 2005, April 2014 and January 2021 issues of the RBI Bulletin. Table No. 38 Based on applications for ECB/Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) which have been allotted loan registration number during the period. RBI Bulletin February 2026 133CURRENT STATISTICS Table Nos. 40, 41, 42, 43 & 44 Explanatory notes on these tables are available in December issue of RBI Bulletin, 2012. Table No. 45 Part I-A. Settlement systems 1.1.3: Tri- party Repo under the securities segment has been operationalised from November 05, 2018. Part I-B. Payments systems 4.1.2: ‘Others’ includes e-commerce transactions and digital bill payments through ATMs, etc. 4.2.2: ‘Others’ includes e-commerce transactions, card to card transfers and digital bill payments through ATMs, etc. 5: Available from December 2010. 5.1: includes purchase of goods and services and fund transfer through wallets. 5.2.2: includes usage of PPI Cards for online transactions and other transactions. 6.1: Pertain to three grids – Mumbai, New Delhi and Chennai. 6.2: ‘Others’ comprises of Non-MICR transactions which pertains to clearing houses managed by 21 banks. Part II-A. Other payment channels 1: Mobile Payments – Include transactions done through mobile apps of banks and UPI apps. o The data from July 2017 includes only individual payments and corporate payments initiated, o processed, and authorised using mobile device. Other corporate payments which are not initiated, processed, and authorised using mobile device are excluded. 2: Internet Payments – includes only e-commerce transactions through ‘netbanking’ and any financial transaction using internet banking website of the bank. Part II-B. ATMs 3.3 and 4.2: only relates to transactions using bank issued PPIs. Part III. Payment systems infrastructure 3: Includes ATMs deployed by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) and White Label ATM Operators (WLAOs). WLAs are included from April 2014 onwards. Table No. 47 (-) represents nil or negligible The table format is revised since monthly Bulletin for the month of June 2023. Central Government Dated Securities include special securities and Sovereign Gold Bonds. State Government Securities include special bonds issued under Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY). Bank PDs are clubbed under Commercial Banks. The category ‘Others’ comprises State Governments, DICGC, PSUs, Trusts, Foreign Central Banks, HUF/ Individuals etc. Data since September 2023 includes the impact of the merger of a non-bank with a bank. 134 RBI Bulletin February 2026CURRENT STATISTICS Table No. 48 GDP data is based on 2011-12 base. GDP for 2023-24 is from Union Budget 2023-24. Data pertains to all States and Union Territories. 1 & 2: Data are net of repayments of the Central Government (including repayments to the NSSF) and State Governments. 1.3: Represents compensation and assignments by States to local bodies and Panchayati Raj institutions. 2: Data are net of variation in cash balances of the Central and State Governments and includes borrowing receipts of the Central and State Governments. 3A.1.1: Data as per RBI records. 3B.1.1: Borrowings through dated securities. 3B.1.2: Represent net investment in Central and State Governments’ special securities by the National Small Savings Fund (NSSF). This data may vary from previous publications due to adjustments across components with availability of new data. 3B.1.6: Include Ways and Means Advances by the Centre to the State Governments. 3B.1.7: Include Treasury Bills, loans from financial institutions, insurance and pension funds, remittances, cash balance investment account. Table No. 49 SDF is availed by State Governments against the collateral of Consolidated Sinking Fund (CSF), Guarantee Redemption Fund (GRF) & Auction Treasury Bills (ATBs) balances and other investments in government securities. WMA is advance by Reserve Bank of India to State Governments for meeting temporary cash mismatches. OD is advanced to State Governments beyond their WMA limits. Average amount Availed is the total accommodation (SDF/WMA/OD) availed divided by number of days for which accommodation was extended during the month. - : Nil. Table No. 50 CSF and GRF are reserve funds maintained by some State Governments with the Reserve Bank of India. ATBs include Treasury bills of 91 days, 182 days and 364 days invested by State Governments in the primary market. --: Not Applicable (not a member of the scheme). The concepts and methodologies for Current Statistics are available in Comprehensive Guide for Current Statistics of the RBI Monthly Bulletin (https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=17618) Time series data of ‘Current Statistics’ is available at https://data.rbi.org.in. Detailed explanatory notes are available in the relevant press releases issued by RBI and other publications/releases of the Bank such as Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy. RBI Bulletin February 2026 135RREECCEENNTT PPUUBBLLIICCAATTIIOONNSS Recent Publications of the Reserve Bank of India Name of Publication Price India Abroad 1. 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Banking Glossary (English-Hindi) `100 per copy (over the counter) `150 per copy (inclusive of postal charges) Notes 1. Many of the above publications are available at the RBI website (www.rbi.org.in). 2. Time Series data are available at the Database on Indian Economy (https://data.rbi.org.in). 3. The Reserve Bank of India History 1935-2008 (5 Volumes) are available at leading book stores in India. * Concession is available for students, teachers/lecturers, academic/education institutions, public libraries and Booksellers in India provided the proof of eligibility is submitted. 136 RBI Bulletin February 2026RREECCEENNTT PPUUBBLLIICCAATTIIOONNSS General Instructions 1. All communications should be addressed to: Director, Division of Reports and Knowledge Dissemination, Department of Economic and Policy Research (DRKD, DEPR), Reserve Bank of India, Amar Building, Ground Floor, Sir P. M. Road, Fort, P. B. No.1036, Mumbai - 400 001. 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