Vision Document on Copper Sector

खान मंत्रालय MINISTRY OF MINES भारत सरकार GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Vision Document on Copper Sector 2025 1 | Co ppe r Visio n D o c um e nt | M inist ry o f M ine sDisclaimer This document has been developed with the objective of providing a strategic framework for the long-term growth of the sector and is intended to serve as an indicative reference for stakeholders across the entire value chain, including upstream, downstream and recycling. This document does not constitute and shouldn’t be construed to be an opinion or report or policy covering any legal or regulatory advice or procedures to detect fraud or illegal acts. The information provided in this document is being disclosed on an ‘as is where is’ basis. The Ministry of Mines, Government of India makes no representation whatsoever, express, implicit or otherwise, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, correctness, reliability and/or completeness of the same as the document mainly relies upon the data provided by consultant, Copper industry players and other stakeholders. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, the Ministry of Mines hereby expressly disclaim any and all liability or responsibility to any party whatsoever in respect of this report, and any related communications, including any conclusions or opinions expressed herein. Neither the Ministry of Mines nor any of its affiliates shall be held liable for any losses, damages, or claims arising from or in connection with the use of this report by any recipient. The sole purpose of this document is to support collaborative efforts towards the sustainable development of the Copper sector in India. All recommendations and data presented are for informational purposes only and subject to further validation and stakeholder inputs. Nothing contained herein shall constitute grounds for an y action by recipients of this document before any writ court or other judicial or quasi-judicial forum. 2 | Co ppe r Visio n D o c um e nt | M inist ry o f M ine s3 | Co ppe r Visio n D o c um e nt | M inist ry o f M ine s4 | Co ppe r Visio n D o c um e nt | M inist ry o f M ine s5 | Co ppe r Visio n D o c um e nt | M inist ry o f M ine s6 | Co ppe r Visio n D o c um e nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 15 Copper: A Strategic Metal for Global Development .............................................................. 18 1. Copper as a critical mineral .................................................................................................... 25 1.1. Copper is a critical mineral – global perspective ................................................................... 29 1.2. Copper as a critical mineral - Indian perspective ................................................................... 31 2. Copper and the world ............................................................................................................ 34 2.1. Megatrends shaping the global copper outlook .................................................................... 34 2.2. Emerging sectors driving the growth trajectory .................................................................... 36 2.3. Prevailing and Evolving Technologies Transforming Copper Value Chain ............................. 40 2.4. Focus on reducing carbon footprint across the copper value chain...................................... 42 2.5. Resource & reserve across major economies and global trends on resource discovery ...... 44 2.6. Copper supply scenario in major economies ......................................................................... 51 2.6.1. Global copper mine production ..................................................................................... 51 2.6.2. Global refined copper production .................................................................................. 54 2.7. Reflection on leading copper producers ................................................................................ 57 2.8. Trends in secondary copper production & refining ............................................................... 62 2.9. Copper trade flow .................................................................................................................. 66 2.9.1. Copper ore and concentrate trade flow ........................................................................ 66 2.9.2. Copper blister and anode trade flow ............................................................................. 68 2.9.3. Refined copper trade flow ............................................................................................. 70 2.10. The challenges impacting the global copper market ..................................................... 75 2.11. Key Takeaways for Indian copper sector ....................................................................... 77 3. Copper and India .................................................................................................................... 80 3.1. Domestic sector-wise usage of copper .................................................................................. 85 3.2. Resource and reserve across regions in India ........................................................................ 88 7 | Co ppe r Visio n D o c um e nt | M inist ry o f M ine s3.3. Copper Supply Scenario ......................................................................................................... 91 3.4. Major copper producers and their expansion Plans ............................................................ 102 3.5. Trade flows ........................................................................................................................... 105 3.5.1. Import and export overview ........................................................................................ 105 3.6. Secondary copper and processing in India .......................................................................... 107 3.7. Key trends and drivers important for growth of Secondary Copper sector ........................ 108 3.8. Safeguarding against future high prices by building functional reserves ............................ 110 3.9. Key highlights of the Indian copper sector .......................................................................... 112 4. Benchmarking with Other Countries: China and Japan ....................................................... 114 5. Expected growth of domestic copper sector ....................................................................... 119 5.1. Expected growth of copper usage in short-term (2030) and Amrit Kaal (2047) ................. 119 5.2. Major copper consuming sectors outlook ........................................................................... 120 5.3. Potential supply scenario in 2030 and Amrit Kaal ............................................................... 128 6. Stakeholder Consultation ..................................................................................................... 135 7. Navigating The Way Forward In The Sector ......................................................................... 139 7.1. Emphasizing on exploration activities .................................................................................. 139 7.2. Enhancing supply chain resiliency ........................................................................................ 141 7.3. Imagining India as a Processing Hub with downstream integration (smelting & refining and fabrication) .................................................................................................................................. 144 7.4. Streamlining & promoting responsible recycling ................................................................. 147 8. Suggested constitution of taskforces to drive the growth of domestic copper industry .... 151 9. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 156 8 | Co ppe r Visio n D o c um e nt | M inist ry o f M ine sList of Graphs Graph 1 Different stages of growth (S-curve) ............................................................................... 27 Graph 2 Metal consumption and economic parameters correlation ........................................... 28 Graph 3 World refined copper usage (in MT) ............................................................................... 36 Graph 4 Refined copper usage region-wise .................................................................................. 37 Graph 5 Semis Production ............................................................................................................ 37 Graph 6 Sector-wise copper usage ............................................................................................... 38 Graph 7 Copper Exploration Budget and Number of Companies Investing ................................. 47 Graph 8 Copper Exploration Budget by Regions (US$ Bn) ........................................................... 47 Graph 9 Mine production (MT) in terms of metal content .......................................................... 51 Graph 10 Country-wise share of copper mine production ........................................................... 52 Graph 11 Refined copper production (MT) .................................................................................. 54 Graph 12 Refined copper production country-wise share ........................................................... 55 Graph 13 Company-wise Copper Production (MT) ...................................................................... 58 Graph 14 Major copper refineries by capacity (MT) .................................................................... 59 Graph 15 Share of secondary copper in refined copper production ............................................ 63 Graph 16 Global Exporters of Copper Ore & Conc. ...................................................................... 67 Graph 17 Global Importers of Copper ore & conc. ....................................................................... 67 Graph 18 Global Copper blister and anode exporters .................................................................. 69 Graph 19 Global Importers of Unrefined Copper (Copper blister and anode) ............................ 69 Graph 20 Global Refined copper Exporters .................................................................................. 70 Graph 21 Global Refined Copper Importers ................................................................................. 71 9 | Co ppe r Visio n D o c um e nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 22 Domestic refined copper usage (MT) ........................................................................... 85 Graph 23 Domestic sector-wise copper usage ............................................................................. 86 Graph 24 Domestic product-wise copper demand ...................................................................... 87 Graph 25 Grade-wise distribution of Indian Copper Resources .................................................. 89 Graph 26 Indian Copper ore production / Hindustan Copper Production (MT) .......................... 93 Graph 27 Domestic MIC production (MT) from HCL .................................................................... 94 Graph 28 Copper Concentrate import and export (MT)............................................................... 94 Graph 29 TC/RC price trend in copper .......................................................................................... 99 Graph 30 Indian Copper Cathode Snapshot (MT) ........................................................................ 99 Graph 31 India's Import and Export of Copper (all forms) (INR Cr) ............................................ 106 Graph 32 India’s Cu Import Category wise share in FY23 ........................................................... 106 Graph 33 Copper scrap trade ...................................................................................................... 107 Graph 34 LME price over the years ............................................................................................ 110 Graph 35 Copper in use (MT), 2020 ............................................................................................ 111 Graph 36 Historical and projected domestic apparent copper demand (in MT) ....................... 119 Graph 37 Domestic copper ore production (MT) projected snapshot ....................................... 130 Graph 38 Copper concentrate scenario in FY47(P) (KT) ............................................................. 132 Graph 39 Domestic refined copper capacity projections FY47(P) (KT) ...................................... 133 10 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sList of Tables Table 1 Key sectors and its end-use that will drive the domestic demand of major minerals .... 25 Table 2 Global Comparison of Per Capita Metal Consumption .................................................... 28 Table 3 Global Economies perspective on copper and critical minerals ...................................... 29 Table 4 Technologies across value chain ...................................................................................... 40 Table 5 Copper reserves ............................................................................................................... 45 Table 6 Major discoveries of copper (1990-2021) ........................................................................ 48 Table 7 Mines undergoing expansion ........................................................................................... 53 Table 8 Copper Smelter/Refinery undergoing expansion ............................................................ 56 Table 9 Direct cost breakdown of mines owned by First Quantum in $/tonne ........................... 59 Table 10 Summary of select underground mines ......................................................................... 61 Table 11 Countries and their Policies on Recycling ...................................................................... 63 Table 12 Initiatives by major copper economies .......................................................................... 65 Table 13 Taxation & Duties on Mining over Major Copper Producing Countries ........................ 74 Table 14 Challenges faced by players in copper value chain ........................................................ 75 Table 15 Operational status of HCL Mines ................................................................................... 92 Table 16 Auctioned copper mines ................................................................................................ 93 Table 17 Domestic refined copper production (KT) ..................................................................... 96 Table 18 Technology being used by Indian players ...................................................................... 97 Table 19 Comparison of pyrometallurgy process ......................................................................... 98 Table 20 Major copper players expansion plans ........................................................................ 104 Table 21 Copper recycling benefits, challenges and solutions in copper recycling ................... 107 11 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 22 Key trends and drivers of secondary copper sector .................................................... 108 Table 23 Comparative analysis of Refined Copper production .................................................. 114 Table 24 Taxation and Financial Incentives ................................................................................ 115 Table 25 Scrap and Recycling Policies ......................................................................................... 115 Table 26 Investment and Acquisition Strategies ........................................................................ 116 Table 27 Domestic mine-wise production FY30 (P) .................................................................... 129 Table 28 Projection of domestic refined copper production FY30 (P) ....................................... 129 Table 29 Potential ore production of auctioned blocks in FY47 ................................................. 131 Table 30 Potential ore production from upcoming blocks in FY47 ............................................ 131 Table 31 Suggested constitution of taskforces ........................................................................... 151 12 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sList of Figures Figure 1 Geological reserve and functional reserve across major copper economies ................. 18 Figure 2 Emissions in Copper industry .......................................................................................... 43 Figure 3 Copper geological presence ............................................................................................ 46 Figure 4 Major Copper producers & their geographies ................................................................ 58 Figure 5 Trade Flow - Copper concentrate ................................................................................... 66 Figure 6 Trade Flow - Copper blister & anode .............................................................................. 68 Figure 7 Trade Flows - Refined Copper ......................................................................................... 70 Figure 8 Indian Copper Resources Snapshot ................................................................................ 89 Figure 9 State-wise preliminary explored blocks .......................................................................... 90 Figure 10 Copper supply snapshot ............................................................................................... 91 Figure 11 Indian Copper Concentrate Imports ............................................................................. 95 Figure 12 Presence of Indian copper producers ......................................................................... 103 Figure 13 Future copper supply scenario ................................................................................... 128 13 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sE xecutive summary The Copper Vision Document outlines a strategic roadmap for India's copper industry to support national growth, sustainability, and energy independence by 2047. Recognizing copper's pivotal role as a critical mineral, the document emphasizes copper's importance across vital sectors— such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, electronics, and infrastructure—which are essential for achieving India's ambitious economic and sustainable development targets. Copper has been recognized as a critical mineral in India's resource strategy, playing a key role in advancing national goals for green energy and electric vehicle (EV) transition. The demand for copper is projected to surge as India accelerates its transition to clean energy technologies, transportation electrification, and digital infrastructure. By 2050, global refined copper demand is expected to reach 53 million tonnes (MT) due to rapid urbanization, infrastructure expansion, and industrialization. In addition to traditional sectors, increased demand is anticipated from renewable energy, EVs, charging infrastructure, and AI. Despite this growing demand, supply is expected to tighten due to factors such as the recent closure of the Cobre Panama mine and Indonesia’s ban on copper concentrate exports. Additional challenges include declining ore grades, environmental oversight, resource nationalism, and escalated operational costs. On a positive note, copper miners are taking steps to reduce emissions and make mining more environmentally friendly. Approximately 73% of carbon emissions in the copper industry occur during mining and beneficiation, with the remainder from smelting, refining, and transport. The largest emission source is the carbonized electricity used to process ore into copper. Miners are increasingly adopting renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies to minimize pollution, enhancing the industry's environmental sustainability. The Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC has recently completed its Phase 3 expansion, achieving a copper production capacity of 650,000 tpa from concentrate and a smelter capacity of 0.5 MTPA. Phase 4 expansion is underway, aiming for an annual ore throughput of 20 million tonnes. New smelter capacities are also emerging in Indonesia, India, the DRC, the USA, and China. However, 15 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sthe increase in smelter and refining capacities has led to a copper concentrate deficit, driving down TC/RC prices. In November 2023, a benchmark agreement between Chilean miner Antofagasta and Chinese smelter Jinchuan set the treatment charge (TC) at USD 80/t—9% lower than the previous year and the first drop in TCs in three years. Given the recent concentrate supply tightening and expanding smelter capacity in China, spot TCs have plunged to negative level. India, the third-largest importer of copper scrap, imported 0.310 MT in CY23, while China imported 1.98 million tonnes. With an increasing focus by major scrap-exporting nations on domestic recycling, the global scrap supply chain is expected to face disruptions. Scrap trade dynamics are evolving as key scrap-producing economies consider restricting scrap exports to encourage domestic recycling. In FY24, India’s refined copper usage stood at 0.844 MT, while total copper apparent usage was 1.718 MT, with the remainder sourced from direct scrap melting and net imports of semi-finished products. Over 90% of copper concentrate requirements were met through imports. Additionally, anode net imports of copper anodes stood at 0.205 MT in FY24. Since the closure of the Sterlite Copper Tuticorin plant, India has been a net importer of copper cathodes, with a net import of 0.335 MT in FY24. Consequently, India's copper (HS code 74) trade deficit has grown from USD 0.76 billion in FY17 to USD 6 billion in FY23, with the copper concentrate trade deficit (HS code 2603) reaching USD 3.4 billion. The three-month average LME copper price in October 2024 was USD 9,724/t, and it is expected to rise further in the long run due to increased demand and supply constraints, impacting the nation’s forex reserves. To address these challenges, the Indian government has introduced several initiatives, including the Exploration License (EL), Reverse Charge Mechanism (RCM) on scrap, Quality Control Order (QCO), and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR). However, further action is required to stimulate domestic demand. For example, China has approximately 116.1 million tonnes of copper in use, which can be recycled within about 20 years to hedge against supply disruptions. In contrast, India has only 15.2 million tonnes, making scrap copper relatively scarce. Policies to 16 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sstandardize copper content in end-use products and public awareness campaigns on copper’s benefits could promote higher energy efficiency and living standards. India's copper demand is projected to reach 3–3.3 million tonnes by 2030 and 8.9–9.8 million tonnes by 2047, reflecting a 2–2.2x increase by 2030 and a 5.9–6.5x increase by 2047. Demand is expected to grow at an elasticity of 1.1–1.3 relative to GDP growth until 2030 and 0.6 – 0.7 until 2047, spurred by the government’s ambitious renewable energy targets (500 GW by 2030, with 50% of power from non-fossil sources) and EV goals (30% EV penetration by 2030), as well as India’s potential role as a global manufacturing hub under the China+1 strategy. These projections should be reviewed and adjusted every 2–3 years as technologies will evolve and copper content in the finished product might vary due to technology change. For instance, copper content in EVs has dropped from 99.32 kgs in 2015 and is expected to be 61.7 kgs in 2030 marking a 38 kgs per car reduction from 2015 to 2030. Such substantial demand increases necessitate a strategic approach to secure supply. By 2047, India must expand its refining capacities by an additional 1 MT by 2030 and another 3.5 MT by 2047. Alongside overseas mine acquisitions, downstream integration near these assets should be prioritized. Furthermore, India must improve its scrap refining capabilities, currently negligible, aiming to refine 15–20% of available scrap in the long term. Given the strategic role of scrap in achieving net-zero goals, major economies are contemplating scrap export bans. India should consider imposing similar restrictions on copper scrap while enhancing domestic scrap collection. Copper in buildings and infrastructure becomes available for recycling after 30–50 years, whereas consumer goods and vehicles provide scrap within 15– 20 years. Government initiatives should thus focus on increasing copper demand in consumer goods to leverage this shorter recycling cycle. To ensure a stable supply of primary raw materials, India should prioritize expanding domestic mining capacity and acquiring or investing in foreign assets in copper-rich regions such as Australia, South America, and Africa. Increased imports from Africa may be feasible following the recent removal of copper concentrate import duties. 17 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sCopper: A Strategic Metal for Global Development The Unique Role of Copper in Society Copper, a highly versatile and essential metal, has been at the core of human development for over 10,000 years. Renowned for its superior properties such as high electrical and thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, and antimicrobial traits, copper is indispensable in energy systems, construction, electronics, and healthcare. Its role extends to sustainability through extensive recycling, making it a cornerstone of the circular economy. Global reserves and per capita consumption across major economies Germany leads in per capita refined copper consumption at 13.6 kg, followed by South Korea at ~11 kg, compared to a global average of 3.2 kg, whereas India’s copper consumption stands at 0.5–0.6 kg, highlighting the growth potential. Major copper economies such as China, Japan EU countries, having limited geological reserves, are focusing on increasing their functional reserve for future use. Figure 1 Geological reserve and functional reserve across major copper economies Source: Secondary Research 18 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sCopper’s Economic and Environmental Impact • Economic Contributions: o Copper mining and processing are creating jobs and infrastructure. o Trade and investment in copper are stimulating economic growth in both developed and emerging economies. • Sustainability through Recycling: o Recycling Rates: Copper is boasting one of the highest recycling rates among metals, preserving its properties. o Energy Savings: Recycling copper is consuming significantly less energy compared to primary production, reducing environmental footprints. Meeting Future Demand: Innovation and Efficiency While global demand for copper is rising, technological advancements, resource discovery, and recycling ensure its availability. Challenges like declining ore grades and environmental concerns necessitate continuous innovation in mining technologies, policies promoting efficient resource utilization and investment in sustainable practices to support long-term copper supply. To achieve Aatmanirbharta (self-sufficiency), it is crucial to define a clear strategy that positions the copper industry as a key driver of India’s economic growth and sustainability objectives. 19 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sStrategic Initiatives for Advancing India’s Copper Sector To meet these objectives and support the anticipated growth in copper demand, India must adopt strategic initiatives to address current challenges and drive the copper sector's sustainable development. 1. Navigating the way forward: Emphasizing on exploration activities About 18% of geological resources are categorized as reserves, indicating that exploration efforts need to be expedited to improve the domestic raw material supply. 20 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s2. Navigating the way forward: Enhancing supply chain resiliency India’s copper concentrate import is expected to reach 91%–97% by 2047, necessitating diversification of supply and foreign asset acquisition for seamless raw material supply. 21 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s3. Navigating the way forward: Imagining India as a processing hub with downstream facilities To meet the domestic refined copper demand, India needs to establish robust midstream and downstream facilities with responsible waste management mechanism. 4. Navigating the way forward: Streamlining and promoting responsible recycling The secondary copper sector will play a significant role in meeting the growing demand; hence, the focus will be on organizing the scrap sector through proper classification of scrap, securing scrap supply, formalizing billing mechanism and promoting sustainable scrap usage. 22 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sImmediate high-impact initiatives: To address critical needs with substantial effects, immediate and strategically important high- impact initiatives need to be adopted. 23 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s1. COPPER AS A CRITICAL MINERAL 24 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s1. C opper as a critical mineral Viksit Bharat@2047: The Amrit Kaal Journey To achieve these ambitious goals, the Government of India (GoI) is allocating significant budgets, introducing progressive policies, and making targeted investments across key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and defence. In each of these sectors, the government is setting clear and ambitious targets for the mid-term (2030) and long-term (2047), providing a strategic roadmap to guide the nation towards realising its Viksit Bharat@2047 vision. Table 1 Key sectors and its end-use that will drive the domestic demand of major minerals Key Sectors Government’s Push Future Outlook Budget allocation for solar • 90% clean grid by 2047 under power grid stands at INR 8,500 Energy the energy independence crore in FY25, a 70% increase pathway from the previous year 25 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sKey Sectors Government’s Push Future Outlook • 51% of India’s population is likely to be living in urban centres. The Indian government has • Infra investment of INR 845-880 allotted ~INR 11 lakh crore for Infrastructure lakh crore is expected between infrastructure development in 2023 & 2047. the 2024-25 budget • 500 MT crude steel capacity & 245 kg per capita consumption by 2047 Ministry of Electronics and • 3x increase in semiconductor Information Technology (MeitY) Consumer market by 2032 received INR 21,936 crore in durables • 9x increase in electronics budget FY25, 52% jump from manufacturing market by 2030 last budget • Various analyst reports project EV penetration to be 87% by PM E-drive (INR 10,900 crores 2047 Transportation from FY24 – FY26), PLI, and • >85% of the value chain Vehicle Scrapping Policy expected to be manufactured in India by 2047 Budget allocation for health is • Indian industry expected to grow INR 90,958 crores in FY25 Health to USD 450 Bn by 2047, from budget, 164% increase from current USD 30 Bn 2013-14 26 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sKey Sectors Government’s Push Future Outlook • Self-reliance in defence sector Budget estimates for FY25 • INR 3 lakh crore annual defence Defence stands at INR 621,940.85 production & INR 50,000 crore crores exports expected by 2028-29 Source: IBEF, PIB, Ministry of Finance, Invest India Metal usage driven by economic growth: India is currently in the early stages of the S-curve of wealth creation, while China is progressing toward becoming a mature economy, and the United States is already displaying the characteristics of a fully matured economy. This presents a significant growth opportunity for India. Graph 1 Different stages of growth (S-curve) Source: ICA 27 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 2 Global Comparison of Per Capita Metal Consumption Per Capita Consumption (Kg) USA China India Global Refined Copper 5.9 10.7 0.5 3.2 Aluminium 14.9 28.0 2.5 11.0 Steel 280.0 645.8 86.7 221.8 Historically, the consumption of key metals in India has grown in parallel with GDP and per capita income. As an emerging economy, India’s metal usage is projected to grow substantially in tandem with its economic growth as increased consumption spurs demand for goods and services, driving growth in sectors such as manufacturing and transportation, which in turn elevates the demand for metals. Graph 2 Metal consumption and economic parameters correlation 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GDP (USD Tn) GDP per capita ('000 USD) Copper apparent usage (MT) Alumnium usage ('0 MT) Steel usage ('00 MT) Manufacturing GVA (USD Tn) Source: ICA, Secondary Research This correlation between metal usage and manufacturing output is not unique to India. A similar trend was observed globally, for instance, in the early 1990s (1994), China’s per capita copper 28 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sconsumption was approximately 1 kg. Over the next two decades, as the Chinese economy underwent rapid industrialization, this figure surged to around 9 kg. Currently, India’s per capita refined copper consumption stands at roughly 0.5 kg, and it is expected to follow a similar trajectory of steep growth in the following years. 1.1. Copper is a critical mineral – global perspective The global push for net-zero emissions by 2050 has intensified the focus on clean energy technologies, driving an unprecedented demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and graphite. These minerals are essential for technologies like electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and advanced grid infrastructure. However, the supply of these critical minerals is concentrated in a few countries, making economies worldwide vulnerable to potential supply chain disruptions. In response, major economies have classified certain minerals as critical and are implementing strategies to safeguard their supply chains. Major economies have recognized copper's indispensable role in clean energy technologies by including it in their critical mineral lists. Table 3 Global Economies perspective on copper and critical minerals • USGS included 50 minerals as critical minerals. • The Department of Energy (DOE) added copper to its list of critical materials due to increasing demands for USA cleaner energy. Cu intensity: • Tax credits for green energy production, 57 tonne/USD bn and electricity storage. • USD 3.1 Bn investment to support domestic production of advanced batteries and EV battery- recycling capabilities. 29 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Expansion of domestic manufacturing and net zero by 2050. • Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) names 35 minerals as critical including copper. • Copper demand is going to increase towards Japan achieving ~90% clean electricity share by 2035. Cu intensity: • Reduce GHG emissions by 46% by 2030, and to 194 tonne/USD bn achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. • Federal govt. created a 'strategic materials' list including copper, separate to its critical mineral list of 24 minerals. Australia • Building strategic material hubs to meet the demand Cu intensity: for clean technology and mitigate supply chain risk. 0 tonne/USD bn • 82% renewable energy in electricity grid by 2030. • Formulate the list of critical minerals according to their industrial requirements & supply risks. • Classified 25 minerals as critical minerals, copper China included in the list due to its importance for clean Cu intensity: technologies. 875 tonne/USD bn • 1,200 GW from Solar & Wind by 2024 as per IEA. • Carbon neutrality by 2060, urbanization agenda, recovery in global electronics sector, rapid expansion of EV market. • Slower future economic growth may impact copper demand. • 34 critical minerals have been designated. The economic and strategic importance of copper and the high risk associated with its supply led to its EU inclusion under the Critical Raw Materials Act. 30 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sCu intensity: • Green energy investment plans under RePowerEU Poland: 369 tonne/USD bn initiative. Spain: 262 tonne/USD bn • Focus on energy security – ~45% of energy from Germany: 220 tonne/USD bn renewable sources. • New-energy vehicle sales and related infrastructure – 1 Mn charging stations by 2025. • Mining industry contributing ~14% of country’s GDP where copper makes up a large part of the total volume of national export. Chile • Copper is going to play a crucial role to achieve the Cu intensity: ambitious target of becoming carbon neutral by 214 tonne/USD bn 2050. Note: Intensity of refined copper usage per GDP refers to the amount of copper used by the semis industry divided by GDP Source: Copper Factbook, Secondary Research 1.2. Copper as a critical mineral - Indian perspective In line with global net-zero initiatives, India has committed to reducing its emissions intensity by 45% by 2030 (from 2005 levels) and aims to achieve Net Zero by 2070. To achieve these ambitions, a 7-member committee was formed by the Ministry of Mines in 2022 and recommended a list of critical minerals, which the government officially released in July 2023, identifying 30 minerals as critical for India's future growth in technologies such as green energy, electric vehicles (EVs), defence, etc. The MMDR Amendment Act, 2023 has empowered the central government to exclusively auction Mining Leases and Composite Licenses for 24 critical and strategic minerals. Additionally, the Act introduced an Exploration License for 29 critical and deep-seated minerals, aiming to facilitate resource identification, encourage private sector participation, and incentivize exploration within 31 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sIndia. While copper is not included in the critical and strategic minerals list, it is part of the critical and deep-seated minerals list. Moreover, the Government of India has taken significant steps to ensure supply chain security for critical minerals through initiatives such as the Mineral Security Partnership (MSP), the establishment of KABIL, and the National Critical Mineral Mission. Source: Secondary Research, Ministry of Mines Reports 32 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s2. COPPER AND THE WORLD 33 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s2. C opper and the world 2.1. Megatrends shaping the global copper outlook Rapid urbanization and increased investments in renewable energy infrastructure are projected to significantly boost refined copper demand, rising from the current ~26 MT to a record-high of ~53 MT by 20501. Rapid technological advancements and pressing environmental concerns, several megatrends are poised to shape the global landscape. • Global climate action and sustainability o 2023 saw a remarkable 50% increase in renewable energy capacity compared to the previous year2. This surge underscores the global commitment to scaling up renewable energy sources. However, to meet the global climate targets3, renewable energy capacity must reach at least 11 terawatts (TW) by 20304. o Electric car sales are expected to reach ~17 million in 2024, accounting for more than one in five cars sold worldwide. By 2030, almost 1 in 3 cars on the roads in China is expected to be electric, and almost 1 in 5 in both the United States and European Union based on today’s energy, climate, and industrial policy settings5. • Urbanization and infrastructure investment o Currently, 56% of the world’s population – 4.4 billion inhabitants live in cities. This trend is expected to continue, with the urban population more than doubling its current size by 2050, at which point nearly 7 of 10 people will live in cities6. o Projects such as China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the G7's Build Back Better World (B3W) are expected to drive significant infrastructure growth at a global level. 1 S&P Global 2 World Economic Forum 3 Limit warming to 1.5⁰C 4 IRENA - International Renewable Energy Agency 5 IEA – Global EV outlook 2024 6 World Bank Group 34 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Resource nationalism o Resource nationalism is becoming increasingly prominent as countries focus on strengthening their supply chain resiliency and promoting local value addition such as processing, refining, etc. By focusing on these areas, countries aim to achieve greater economic stability, reduce dependence on foreign resources, and ensure the sustainable development of their natural resources. • Industry 4.0 and smart technologies o The advent of Industry 4.0 and smart technologies is driving significant advancements in process efficiency across various industries. Key technologies such as autonomous vehicles, drones, robotic systems, virtual reality (VR), and augmented reality (AR) are at the forefront of this transformation, enabling unprecedented levels of automation, precision, and operational effectiveness. • Foreign asset acquisition o China has strategically secured its copper supply chain by acquiring stakes in around 30 foreign-owned copper mines. These overseas assets allow China to import copper concentrates, ensuring a stable and reliable supply for its growing domestic needs. o Other countries might adopt similar strategies to secure their own raw material supplies. • Circularity o The circular economy is rapidly gaining traction as global economies increasingly adopt sustainable practices. This shift is driven by the growing recognition of the need to reduce waste, conserve resources, and promote environmental sustainability. The circular economy is expected to become a US$ 2-3 billion market in the coming years, reflecting the significant investment and interest in sustainable practices. 35 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Green copper o The demand for copper, produced with a significantly lower carbon footprint, is expected to be on rise. This shift is driven by stringent Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) norms that are increasingly shaping market preferences for copper which is responsibly produced. Global refined copper consumption per capita is expected to grow steadily from present 3.2 kg to ~5 kg till middle of the next decade due to Net-Zero targets; after 2035, copper consumption per capita is expected to flatten up to ~5.6 kg till 2050 as fleet electronification is expected to get saturated. 2.2. Emerging sectors driving the growth trajectory Global copper demand has grown at a CAGR of ~2.7% over past two decades, increasing from ~15.6 MT in 2003 to ~27.3 MT in 2024. This growth is driven largely by the transmission and distribution sector, which has relied on copper for decades. However, the global copper market is entering a new age with transition technologies, which is expected to see double-digit growth rates. Graph 3 World refined copper usage (in MT) 6 . 5 7 . 6 1 6 . 6 1 9 . 6 1 0 . 8 1 9 . 7 1 9 . 7 1 1 . 9 1 7 . 9 1 5 . 0 2 4 . 1 2 9 . 2 2 0 . 3 2 5 . 3 2 7 . 3 2 5 . 4 2 3 . 4 2 9 . 4 2 2 . 5 2 1 . 6 2 5 . 6 2 3 . 7 2 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Source: World Copper Factbook 2023, ICSG press release 36 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sAsia stands out as the top consumer, accounting for 74% of world copper usage, followed by Europe, America, and Africa with 15%, 10%, and 1% respectively. Within Asia, China accounts for 50-55% of global copper demand. China drove growth in refined copper usage, in the past decade, usage in developed economies such as the US, and EU has plateaued or declined, while growth has been observed in countries such as India, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam. Graph 4 Refined copper usage region-wise 1% 0% 1% 8% Asia Europe 15% North America Latin America Africa 75% Ocenia Source: World Copper Factbook 2023 Direct melting contributes ~18% of copper semi-finished products, in 2022 copper usage stood at 32 MT, of which 26.1 MT came from refined copper and 5.9 MT came from direct melting of scrap. Asia accounted for 83% of semi-finished copper output. Graph 5 Semis Production 5% Wire 9% 11% Tube Flat rolled products 12% 63% Rods, bars & sections Source: World Copper Factbook 2023 37 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sCopper finds essential use across key traditional sectors like electronics and semiconductors, Infrastructure, energy, and transportation, as highlighted below. While these sectors remain vital for copper consumption, the rise of renewable energy, particularly in solar and wind power generation, along with the electrification of transportation through electric vehicles (EVs) and charging infrastructure, drives further demand growth. Graph 6 Sector-wise copper usage Industrial, 12% Transport, 13% Equipment, 32% Infrastructure, 17% Building Construction, 26% Source: World Copper Factbook 2023 In electronics, copper plays a vital role in enabling high-speed data transmission in global information and communication technologies (ICT). It is widely used in ICT components like subscriber lines, networks, and devices such as mobile phones and computers. Moving to construction, copper and its alloy brass are preferred materials for plumbing fixtures and architectural elements due to their aesthetic appeal and durability. Copper's fire-resistant properties make it a superior choice for applications where safety is paramount, such as in preventing bacterial proliferation in tubing installations. In infrastructure, copper's reliability as a conductor sets the standard for efficient power transmission. It is extensively utilized in power cables across various voltage requirements, thanks to its strength, ductility, and resistance to corrosion. This ensures stable and dependable power supply, contributing significantly to infrastructure stability. 38 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTransportation benefits from copper's properties as well, especially in enhancing efficiency. Copper-nickel alloys are used to reduce drag and improve fuel efficiency in marine vessels. Moreover, its conductivity, durability, and recyclability are crucial for various automotive components like motors, wiring systems, and brakes, thereby playing a key role in transportation systems performance. In industrial settings, copper and its alloys are prized for their durability, machinability, and precise casting. These properties make them ideal for critical components such as gears and bearings, ensuring reliable operation and precision in industrial machinery and equipment. Overall, copper's versatility and performance characteristics make it indispensable across a wide range of sectors, driving innovation and progress in various industries. In line with the traditional sector, there are new emerging sectors that are going to drive the copper demand in coming years. • Renewable Energy Drive o Solar technology to boost demand to ~1.6MT by 2030 at CAGR of 15%. o Wind energy to drive copper demand ~1.3MTPA by 2030. o Green energy sector to contribute ~5 MT by 2030. • EV and Charging Infrastructure o EV sales are expected to reach 31.5 million units by 2030. o Supportive regulations in major economies for EVs, and investment in large EV charging infrastructure. o Higher copper content than ICE, essential for batteries and charging infrastructure. o Additionally, aviation and rail sectors are increasingly relying on copper-intensive components for improved performance and sustainability in modern transportation systems. 39 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Rise of AI and growing demand for T&D infra o Transmission & distribution infrastructure will rise from ~5 MT in 2020 to ~10 MT by 2040. o Underground and subsea lines, electrification of the transportation sector. o Global rise of AI to intensify copper demand from current <1% to 6-7% by 2050 for data centres. 2.3. Prevailing and Evolving Technologies Transforming Copper Value Chain In the pursuit of sustaining and enhancing copper production, leading copper economies and producers have embraced a myriad of technological innovations to revolutionize the process across the copper value chain. Leveraging advancements in exploration methodologies, data analytics, and remote sensing technologies, these entities are reshaping the landscape of mineral exploration. Table 4 Technologies across value chain Value Chain Technology Developed by Pulsed-power technology • I-ROX Technology: BHP and I-ROX have forged enabling the rapid and a collaboration agreement aimed at expediting Mining efficient fragmentation of the advancement of I-ROX's technology and ores through high-intensity business bursts of energy Bioleaching of sulphide ores • Nuton System developed by Rio Tinto and having environmental partnered with McEwen Mining and Arizona Extraction benefits and lower capital of Sonoran to use the technology for green mine investment development 40 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sValue Chain Technology Developed by Leaching of low-grade • Developed by Jetti resources, the technology Extraction primary sulphide ores using being used at 22 active project sites catalyst-based system • SandLixTM technology developed by Anglo Enabling recoveries of over American can deliver metal at roughly half the Extraction 70% in half the time of embodied water and energy intensity than traditional leaching methods conventional concentrator circuits • Grind-circuit roughing, such as the CiDRA P29 Sulphide floatation circuits system Beneficiation for coarse metal particle • Coarse particle scavenging: Eriez’s HydroFloat recovery from slurry system Process • Collaboration between BHP and Microsoft to Optimization Improving copper recovery use new digital technology to optimise in using artificial intelligence concentrator performance at BHP’s Escondida Beneficiation operation in Chile • Research Paper was published on by Key Lab Utilization of Copper Tailings Tailings of Clean Energy Utilization, Zhejiang as Clay for Cement Clinker utilization University, College of Communication Calcination. Engineering China Jiliang University • Developed by MineHub Technologies which is Hyperledger Fabric based being adopted by BHP and China Minmetals. platform for cross border • BHP has a subscription to MineHub platform, Supply Chain copper concentrate trial which will help it gain improved visibility into shipment processed on its supply chains to proactively mitigate blockchain technology disruptions. Source: Mining journals, Secondary research 41 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sIn addition to the above initiatives, companies like BHP operate global accelerator programs like Xplor which targets innovative early-stage mineral exploration companies to find critical resources which are necessary to drive the energy transition. As a part of this initiative, in 2023 BHP announced its first cohort of seven companies, infusing them with cash to carry out R&D and providing them access to internal and external experts. Companies like Mining Process Solutions are developing novel leaching technologies based on glycine, which will be helpful to utilize low-grade copper ores where traditional leaching is prohibited due to environmental or social sensitivities7. Global players like Anglo American and Mitsubishi Materials are collaborating to leverage advanced technology driven traceability solutions to enhance transparency across the copper value chain8. 2.4. Focus on reducing carbon footprint across the copper value chain The global copper industry contributes only 0.2% of total carbon emissions. Within the industry, 85% of emissions come from refined copper production, while the remaining 15% arises from secondary production, semi-finished products, finished goods manufacturing and others. Approximately 73% of emissions occur from mining and beneficiation, with the remainder stemming from smelting, refining, transportation, and other processes. The use of carbon- intensive energy sources primarily drives these emissions. Global efforts to produce low-carbon copper are focused on reducing Scope 2 emissions, either through the generation or purchase of renewable energy. 7 Engineering and Mining Journal December 2022 8 https://www.mining-technology.com/news/anglo-mitsubishi-responsible-copper/?cf-view 42 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sFigure 2 Emissions in Copper industry Some initiatives by global copper players and technology providers to reduce carbon emissions include. Decarbonized electricity: Transition from conventional to renewable energy generation / PPAs at copper mines and production sites • Antofagasta’s Zaldivar copper mine (Chile): Operates with 100% renewable energy, saves 3.50 LT of CO2 annually. • KGHM’s solar plant in Poland is connected to its Legnica smelter which generates 3 GWh of electricity annually. • Grupo México´s wind farm in Mexico provides 600 GWh per year of green electricity to the company´s nearby mining and metallurgical operations. Energy efficiency: Improvements in milling efficiency and smelting technologies, installation of in-pit crushing and conveying systems. 43 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Freeport-McMoRan has reduced energy consumption by 20% with innovative high- pressure grinding rolls. • Flash Smelting Pierce Smith Converting process is evaluated to produce lowest of direct & indirect CO2 emissions. 2.5. Resource & reserve across major economies and global trends on resource discovery Geological nature of copper deposits across the world There are three main categories of copper deposits they are porphyry-type deposits, strata-bound deposits, and massive sulfide deposits. Porphyry-type deposits are the most common and they account for 45% of the world’s copper production. • Porphyry deposits o Porphyry copper deposits are low grade but are important sources of copper because they can be worked at a large scale for low costs. o These deposits are associated with deposits of igneous intrusive rocks with Cu sulfide minerals disseminated in them. o They typically contain between 0.4 and 1 % Cu in concert with smaller amounts of other metals, such as molybdenum, silver, and gold. • Massive sulfide deposits o Deposits of compact massive copper, iron, zinc, and lead sulfide, and associated disseminated sulfide. These deposits have tabular or pond-like form and are interlayered with marine volcanic and sedimentary rocks. o These deposits typically are small with well-defined boundaries and commonly have a copper content from 1.0 to 5.0 percent. o Copper often is produced as a valuable by-product of the other minerals in these deposits. 44 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Strata-bound deposits o These deposits contain layers of sandstone or shale containing disseminated copper minerals and, commonly, valuable amounts of silver. o The second most important in terms of metal reserves, are less common & smaller than porphyry deposits. o The Zambian deposits commonly contain 2 to 4% copper in sulfide minerals, and the Zairian deposits 4 to 6 % copper in carbonate and silicate minerals. Global Copper Reserves and Strategic Investment in Discovery Global reserve increased from ~460 MT in 2020 to ~1 BT in terms of metal content. Current and future exploration opportunities, and technological advancements will lead to increases in geological reserves which is essential for long-term availability of copper. Chile is the country with the largest number of reserves with 19% of global copper reserves, followed by Peru and Australia with 12%, and 10% respectively. Table 5 Copper reserves Country Reserves (Cu Metal Content) (MT)9 % share Chile 190 19 Peru 120 12 Australia 100 10 Russia 80 8 Mexico 53 5 USA 50 5 China 41 4 Poland 34 3 9 The most recent U.S. Geological Survey assessment of global copper resources indicated that, as of 2015, identified resources contained 2.1 billion tons of copper and undiscovered resources contained an estimated 3.5 billion tons 45 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sCountry Reserves (Cu Metal Content) (MT)9 % share Zambia 21 2 Kazakhstan 20 2 Others 291 29 Total 1,000 Source: USGS Figure 3 Copper geological presence Note: PMN – Polymetallic nodules, PMS – Polymetallic sulphides, CFC - Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts Source: USGS, S&P Global Report on Copper Exploration Budget Trends 2023, Deloitte Report-Tracking the trends, World Copper Factbook 2023 Given the demand for copper, there are significant investments that are being made in the exploration field of copper. In the fiscal year of 2023, the budget allocated for copper exploration soared to a decade-high figure of US$3.12 billion, notably eclipsing global non-ferrous exploration expenditure. The graph below shows the trend in exploration budget and the number of participating companies. 46 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 7 Copper Exploration Budget and Number of Companies Investing 4 800 $ s S e U i n ( 3 600 a t p e m g d 2 400 o u C B ) n f n B o o 1 200 r i e t a b r m o 0 0 u l p N x 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E Exploration Budget Number of Companies Source: S&P Global Report on Copper Exploration Budget Trends 2023 In 2023, increased allocations for copper were observed across all regions, with Latin America leading the trend with a year-over-year rise of 19%, reaching a total of $1.43 billion. Graph 8 Copper Exploration Budget by Regions (US$ Bn) 1.43 0.42 0.4 0.24 0.19 0.07 Latin US Australia Canada Africa Pacific America Source: S&P Global Report on Copper Exploration Budget Trends 2023 47 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sAlthough the total amount of copper discovered between 1990 and 2021 has notably increased, there continues to be a downward trend in both the frequency and scale of significant discoveries over the past decade. The recent surge in copper addition primarily stems from previously established discoveries dating back to the 1990s. Notably, only three additional discoveries have been identified in the past five years, contributing a mere 5.6 MT. This trend reflects a strategic shift among companies, directing more exploration resources toward established deposits and operational mines. However, copper exploration increasingly leverages cutting-edge technologies. For example, KoBold Metals, a company focused on the discovery and development of new battery metal resources, uses AI and machine learning to identify potential copper deposits. Table 6 Major discoveries of copper (1990-2021) Copper Number of Copper in reserves resources and Implied delivery Year Exploration Discoveries past discoveries (Mt) cost ($/t) Budget ($M) 1990 8 70.2 528.9 7.5 1991 10 140.7 491.7 3.5 1992 8 44.4 486.5 10.9 1993 10 37.2 624.9 16.8 1994 13 73.5 563.1 7.7 1995 16 100.4 670 6.7 1996 11 62.5 729.9 11.7 1997 17 80.1 758.1 9.5 1998 12 32.3 625.4 19.4 1999 9 34.7 509.4 14.7 48 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sCopper Number of Copper in reserves resources and Implied delivery Year Exploration Discoveries past discoveries (Mt) cost ($/t) Budget ($M) 2000 9 10.7 451 42 2001 11 72.1 419.6 5.8 2002 8 17.4 315.9 18.2 2003 7 19.6 350.6 17.9 2004 7 16.6 584.1 35.2 2005 15 71.4 836.9 11.7 2006 7 26.5 1392.9 52.6 2007 15 75.3 2077.1 27.6 2008 10 78.5 2976.8 37.9 2009 5 19.9 1608.3 80.6 2010 1 1 2257.3 2300.8 2011 7 29.9 3657 122.4 2012 1 0.8 4700.6 5596 2013 4 31 3468.7 111.8 2014 3 22.4 2677.8 119.6 2015 0 0 2081.6 NA 2016 1 0.6 1576.9 2447.1 2017 2 3.9 1704.1 432.2 2018 0 0 2074.8 NA 2019 0 0 2321.2 NA 49 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sCopper Number of Copper in reserves resources and Implied delivery Year Exploration Discoveries past discoveries (Mt) cost ($/t) Budget ($M) 2020 1 1.7 1758.7 1046.8 2021 0 0 2313.6 NA Total 228 1,175.4 47,593.3 Source: S&P Global Report on Copper Discoveries – Declining Trend continues Only 12 out of the 228 deposits examined corresponding to the above data were unearthed in the past decade, comprising merely 60.5 million tonnes, or 5.2%, of the total copper discovered since 1990. Another significant factor contributing to the dearth of major discoveries is a notable shift in exploration sector priorities. Since the 1990s, there has been a substantial reduction in the proportion of annual copper budgets allocated to grassroots exploration, with the 2021 allocation of 34.0% nearing the 2009 low of 32.2%. This contrasts sharply with the late 1990s and early 2000s, when grassroots budgets typically constituted between 50% and 60% of exploration expenditures. New focus areas in copper exploration With around 70% of the Earth's surface covered by oceans, the ocean floor holds promising mineral resources, including copper. As global copper demand rises, the discovery and exploration of new resources become crucial, with sea floor deposits offering potential additional supply. However, the challenge lies in exploiting these deposits while adhering to environmental standards and ensuring economic viability. In light of new developments in science and technology, as well as changing economic circumstances, commercial interest in deep-sea mining has grown in recent years due to the pressing need for new copper sources. The UN-backed International Seabed Authority (ISA) has issued 31 deep-sea exploration licenses. China holds 5 50 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sdeep-sea exploration licenses, Russia holds 4, Japan has 2, and India has 2. Other countries with licenses include Korea, Germany, Jamaica, France, the UK, Poland, and others. Some important projects include: • Solwara 1 Project: Located in the Bismarck Sea, Papua New Guinea (PNG), this project is one of the pioneering efforts in deep-sea mining for copper. • Polymetallic Nodules Project: Situated in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the Pacific Ocean, this project targets polymetallic nodules rich in copper and other valuable minerals. 2.6. Copper supply scenario in major economies 2.6.1. Global copper mine production Copper mine production has experienced steady growth, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.4% from 2019 to 2024. Mining capacity is projected to reach approximately 32 MT within the next five years. Graph 9 Mine production (MT) in terms of metal content 23.0 22.4 21.9 21.0 20.6 20.4 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 CY2024 Source: World Copper Factbook 2023, ICSG press release, S&P Global: The Future of Copper, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Secondary Research 51 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sOn a regional level, Chile remains the world's largest producer of mined copper, accounting for 23% of the global output. Peru and China follow, contributing 12% and 8% respectively. Overall, Latin America plays a pivotal role in copper mining, contributing approximately 39% of the total mine production. Graph 10 Country-wise share of copper mine production Chile, 23% Others, 42% Peru, 12% China, 8% Mexico, 3% USA, 5% Russia, 4% Australia, 4% Source: World Copper Factbook 2023, S&P Global: The Future of Copper, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) The copper industry is currently experiencing a surge in expansion plans announced by major producers. This trend reflects the industry's response to the growing demand for copper and its commitment to ensuring market stability. However, in the short run closure of the Cobre Panama mine might have an impact on copper raw material supply. Declining ore grade, environmental oversight, resource nationalism, escalated operating cost and trade tensions continue to pose challenges in long term. Mines expansion plan of leading copper producers Several new copper mine projects are in the developmental pipeline, with expectations to contribute approximately 10 million tonnes (MT) of copper for processing by 2027. These projects are strategically positioned to address the escalating global demand for copper. 52 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 7 Mines undergoing expansion Capacity Approx. Name of the Tentative Owner Location addition Capex project Year (metal) MTPA (US$ Bn) Oyu Tulgoi Rio Tinto Mongolia 0.300 5.3 2027 Yamana & Catamarca, Mara 0.900 2.78 2026 Glencore Argentina Kalmakyr and (AMMC) Uzbekistan 0.250 15.0 2030 Yoshlik-1 Los Andes Vizcachitas Chile 0.183 2.44 2030 Copper Source: Secondary Research, Company annual reports Vedanta, actively seeking to strengthen its operations, is exploring investment options for expansion projects. One key initiative involves raising approximately US$ 1 Bn to revitalize Konkola Copper Mines, focusing on improving productivity and operational efficiency. Additionally, Vedanta plans to invest around US$ 300 Mn in the Konkola Deep Mining Project, demonstrating its commitment to growth and innovation despite challenging operational conditions. Among the ongoing projects is Quebrada Blanca Phase 2, a $8.2 billion endeavor aimed at increasing production capacity by about 0.320 MTPA. Another significant development is the coupling of the Kamoa-Kakula Mine with the Tenke Fungurume Mine (TFM) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), expected to significantly boost copper output. However, there are challenges on the horizon. The closure of the Cobre Panama mine may lead to a temporary impact on ore supply in the short term. Additionally, copper miners face long- term obstacles such as declining ore grades, stringent environmental regulations, resource 53 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine snationalism, rising operating costs, and trade tensions. Despite these challenges, the commitment to growth and innovation remains strong within the industry. 2.6.2. Global refined copper production Refined copper production has experienced a CAGR of approximately ~2.7%, rising from 24.08 MT in 2019 to 27.5 MT in 2024. Secondary copper production contributed around 17% of the overall refined copper production, underscoring the importance of recycled copper in meeting global demand. In 2023, China alone accounted for over 45% of the refined copper produced globally. While the United States dominated the copper markets in the first half of the 20th century, China has surpassed United States in annual copper mine production and ownership of global mining, smelting, and refining assets. Regionally, Asia contributed approximately 60% of global refined copper production. Graph 11 Refined copper production (MT) 27.5 26.5 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.1 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 CY2024 Source: ICSG press release 54 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 12 Refined copper production country-wise share Others 24% Germany China 2% 45% South Korea 2% USA 3% Russia 4% Japan Congo Chile 6% 7% 7% Source: ICSG Copper Factbook 2023 Smelter production in the copper industry currently stands at 22.88 million tonnes (MT). A significant shift has been observed in the geographical contribution to smelter production, with Asia now accounting for approximately 69% of the global total. In terms of refining, the current capacity utilization factor is approximately 84%, with an anticipated capacity growth rate of 3.3% over the next five years. This growth is essential to meet the increasing demand for refined copper globally. Supporting this several notable smelter/refinery projects are scheduled to commence shortly in India, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the USA, and Indonesia. 55 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 8 Copper Smelter/Refinery undergoing expansion Capacity Name of the Approx. Capex Tentative Owner Location addition project (US$ Bn) Year (MTPA) Rifd Copper Kingdom Smelting & Rifd Project of Saudi 0.4 - 2025 Refinery Arabia Project China New Tongling Copper Nonferrous, China 3.4 - 2023-2026 Smelting Xiamen Capacity C&D Aurubis Pirdop, 2025 Aurubis 0.11 - Expansion Bulgaria (completion) Kazakhstan KAZ Abai, new smelting Minerals, 0.3 1.5 2028 Kazakhstan capacity China NFC Mundra, Kutch Copper Adani Phase 2 – Gujarat, 1 1.2 Ltd Enterprises 2029 India Source: Secondary Research, Company annual reports In addition to the capacity additions mentioned in the table, there's a significant agreement between US-based Freeport-McMoRan and the Indonesian government. This highlights collaborative efforts aimed at boosting smelter capacity in Indonesia. Furthermore, China is poised to experience a substantial increase in smelting capacity as its National Development and Reform Commission targets a rise in non-ferrous metal production. 56 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sHowever, the expansion in China is not without its challenges. Declining spot treatment charges (TC), stricter environmental standards, and restrictions on the imports of poor-quality scrap are likely to impact supply. Despite these challenges, China's commitment to expanding its smelting capacity remains strong. The copper industry is poised for significant developments in both mining and smelting capacities, driven by robust projects and strategic agreements. However, long-term challenges such as environmental regulations and fluctuating market conditions will continue to shape the landscape. Production from mine is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.3% to reach ~42 MT by 2050 and refined copper production to expand at a CAGR of 2.6% to reach ~54 MT by 2050 to meet the growing copper demand across the world. 2.7. Reflection on leading copper producers Leading Copper Producers Production Snapshot Predominant copper mining firms are in Chile, Peru, the USA, Australia, and the DRC, with the top 5 producing companies collectively accounting for 32% of global copper output in 2023. 57 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sFigure 4 Major Copper producers & their geographies Source: World Copper Factbook, Company Investor Presentations, Annual Report Copper production output of various mining companies graph highlights the varying scales of copper production among leading mining companies, with Freeport McMoRan standing out as the top producer with ~1.9 MT of overall copper-related output. Graph 13 Company-wise Copper Production (MT)10 Antofagasto 0.66 First quantum 0.708 Anglo american 0.826 Zijin 1.010 Glencore 1.010 Codelco 1.423 BHP 1.717 Freeport McMoran 1.895 Source: World Copper Factbook, Company Investor Presentations, Annual Report 10 Production includes overall copper related output (Conc., Anode, Cathode) 58 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 14 Major copper refineries by capacity (MT) Guixi 1.1 Jinchuan Gansu 0.7 Shandong Fangyuan 0.7 Daye / Hubei 0.6 Yanggu C&D 0.6 Adani 0.5 Hindalco 0.5 Jinchuan 0.5 Source: World Copper Factbook, Company Investor Presentations, Annual Report Among the world’s top 8 largest copper refineries by capacity, seven are in China, clearly showcasing China's dominance in global copper refining capacity. Production Cost Outlook of Leading Copper Producers A significant portion of mining costs, approximately 50-60%, involves wages and raw materials & consumables. Processing costs account for another 30-50% of the total cost of producing a tonne or pound of copper. Major contributors to these processing costs include energy, sulphuric acid (used in the SX-EW process), and steel. Table 9 Direct cost breakdown of mines owned by First Quantum in $/tonne Parameter Cobre Panama Kansanhi Sentinel Country Panama Zambia Zambia Avg grade 0.45% 0.80% 0.50% Mining 750 2,447 1,631 59 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sParameter Cobre Panama Kansanhi Sentinel Processing 2,006 2,227 1,499 Site administration 198 573 441 TC/RC & freight 838 397 529 Smelter cost - 375 265 Note: These numbers are indicative in nature Source: Annual reports, Mining technology Mining copper also involves extracting numerous valuable by-products such as gold, silver, selenium, tellurium, platinum group metals (PGMs), nickel, sulphuric acid (pyro-smelting), and molybdenum etc depending on ore composition. These by-products play a crucial role in reducing direct expenses, further highlighting the economic benefits of comprehensive resource extraction in the copper mining industry. For example, Freeport McMoran's PTX mine in Indonesia achieved a direct cost of USD 3,307/tonne, but with the inclusion of by-products like gold, the net cost is notably reduced to USD 220/tonne. Summary of select underground mines globally Open-pit copper mines are becoming increasingly scarce, prompting many mining companies to shift their operations underground. This transition to underground mining is driven by the need to access deeper ore bodies and improve resource extraction efficiency. The following table provides a comparative overview of several key underground copper mining projects worldwide. 60 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 10 Summary of select underground mines Kamoa & Oyu Tolgoi Parameter Cozamin Mine Kakula (Hugo North) Ivanhoe Company Rio Tinto Capstone Copper Mines Location DRC Mongolia Mexico Resource (MT) 1390 546 19.64 Avg. Grade (Cu %) 2.72 1.40 1.58 Production (MT) 0.390 0.1681 0.024 Minimum Vertical Thickness 3 5.5 5 (mt) Cut & Fill/ Mining Method Drift-and-fill Block caving Longitudinal & traverse long hole Cu blister, Products Cu Conc. Cu Conc. conc. Avg. Metallurgical Recovery (%) 85.5 - 87.5 93 96 Mining Costs ($/tonne) 38 7.03 37.11 Concentrator, Tailings 3.21 Treatment, and G&A Costs 15 8.32 (G&A only) ($/tonne) Smelter, Refining, and 13.5 - - Transport Costs ($/tonne) Source: Company annual reports, Technical reports, Secondary research 61 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sKamoa & Kakula: • Boasts large copper reserves, highlighting its potential for long-term copper supply. • Known for high-grade copper ore, ensuring higher efficiency and profitability in extraction and processing. Oyu Tolgoi (Hugo North): • Technologically Advanced Operations contributing to cheap and efficient operations. • Leveraging block caving mining method, the cheapest mode of extraction. Cozamin Mine: • Produces significant amounts of zinc and silver, enhancing its economic viability. • Cost is slightly higher due to relatively lower production. 2.8. Trends in secondary copper production & refining Secondary copper offers an efficient and sustainable alternative to primary copper sourced from mining. Secondary copper share in refined copper production (refining secondary) is expected to witness a significant increase from ~17% in 2022 to ~22% by 203511. This growth is primarily driven by the global economy's focus on reducing dependency on primary raw materials and enhancing scrap utility. In China, approximately 25% of refined copper is sourced from refining scrap12. In India use of scrap in primary copper production is negligible, however, with introduction of QCO and upcoming scrap processing facilities is expected to drive secondary copper utilization up to ~5% in short term and ~10% in the long term. 11 S&P Global 12 ICA 62 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 15 Share of secondary copper in refined copper production 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2035 Source: Copper factbook, ICSG report, S&P global report, Statista Government policies have a significant impact on recycling. These policies play a crucial role in shaping the recycling landscape, influencing import duties, and promoting sustainable practices within the industry. Effective regulations can encourage recycling efforts, streamline processes, and ensure the efficient use of resources. Below are the key policies from various countries: Table 11 Countries and their Policies on Recycling Country Policies • In 2021 China announced ban all solid wastes import later on allowed for high grade copper 92-99% Cu • China doesn't have an import duty on copper scrap but it taxes imports of China copper rod at 4% • Copper smelting technologies are evolving. Smelters in China are hybrid, using 20–25% of their input feed as scrap. • Tax credits, deductions, or exemptions for expenses related to recycling USA infrastructure. 63 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sCountry Policies • Recycling Program Grants and the Sustainable Materials Management Grants. Import duty stands at 0%. • Circular Economy Action Plan (CEAP): Released in 2020, this plan aims to EU promote circular economy practices. • Import duty on copper scrap stands at 0% for most of the countries • Reduced basic customs duty to zero in Union Budget 2025-26 India • Govt unveiled the “National Scrap Recycling Policy” to formalize and streamline the scrap metal recycling sector. • Created deposit and refund programs, tax exemptions. Japan • Home Appliance Recycling Law facilitates the collection of scrap materials and their transfer to manufacturers Source: Copper factbook, ICSG report, S&P global report, Statista Copper’s contribution to the circular economy & its promotion worldwide Copper's unique properties, such as durability, versatility, and recyclability, make it a key material for the circular economy. ~8.5 MT of copper are reused annually across the globe. Major copper economies and copper producing companies have taken several initiatives towards circular economy around copper. 64 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 12 Initiatives by major copper economies Country Initiatives by government Initiatives by copper producers • EPA’s Sustainable Materials • Freeport-McMoRan: Implements Management Program: Encourages the USA comprehensive recycling programs recycling and reuse of copper from for copper recovery and reuse electronic waste • Circular Economy Action Plan: • Aurubis: Invests in technology to EU Implements strict recycling targets and enhance copper recycling efficiency policies, including for copper and reduce environmental impact • National Circular Economy • Jiangxi Copper Corporation: Development Strategy: Promotes the China Extensive copper recycling to recycling and reuse of materials, reduce environmental footprint including copper • Home Appliance Recycling Law: • Dowa Holdings Co., Ltd.: Advanced Japan Mandates the recycling of copper from recycling technologies for copper household appliances recovery from e-waste • National Waste Policy: Focuses on • Rio Tinto: Innovative recycling Australia waste reduction and increasing copper programs for copper from mining recycling rates waste and end-of-life products • Copper Mark Certification: Ensures • Codelco: Investing in technologies Chile responsible production and recycling of to improve copper recovery and copper recycling from waste Source: Secondary research 65 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s2.9. Copper trade flow 2.9.1. Copper ore and concentrate trade flow In 2023, the top exporters of copper ores and concentrates were Chile, Peru, and Indonesia. Chile and Peru together, were responsible for 50% of the world's copper ore and concentrate exports. Indonesia accounted for ~7% of copper concentrate exports, ban on copper concentrate exports in 2025 is expected to disrupt the global copper supply chain significantly. Figure 5 Trade Flow - Copper concentrate Note: Figure is intended to illustrate trade flows but no actual trade routes. 66 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 16 Global Exporters of Copper Ore & Conc.13 Chile 27% Peru 23% Indonesia 7% Mexico 6% Kazakhstan 5% Others 32% Graph 17 Global Importers of Copper ore & conc. China 65% Japan 11% South Korea 7% Germany 3% Spain 3% Others 11% In 2023, China accounted for 45% of global refined copper production, while its copper mines only produced 1.7 million tons of copper, making the country largely import-dependent14. To secure its supply chain, China has made significant investments in countries such as Peru, Australia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Papua New Guinea. India accounted for 2% of global copper concentrate imports in 2023. Japan, which is responsible for 5.5% of global refined copper production, lacks sufficient copper reserves and thus relies heavily on 13 HS Code – 260300 – copper ore & concentrate 14 USGS 67 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine simporting the primary raw material. To facilitate this, countries like China and Japan, which have insufficient primary raw materials, have made significant investments in foreign copper assets and implemented a 0% import duty on copper ore and concentrates. In line with the global practices, India has also reduced import duty on copper concentrates to 0% in 2024. 2.9.2. Copper blister and anode trade flow Figure 6 Trade Flow - Copper blister & anode Note: Figure is intended to illustrate trade flows but no actual trade routes. 68 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 18 Global Copper blister and anode exporters15 Zambia 38% Chile 17% DRC 12% Sweden 6% Bulgaria 6% Others 21% In 2023, unrefined copper exports amounted to approximately 1.5 million tons, with Zambia emerging as the largest exporter of unrefined copper. Several factors contribute to Zambia's focus on exporting unrefined copper despite possessing significant refining capacity. Firstly, refining copper is an energy-intensive process, and Zambia faces high energy costs. The infrastructure necessary to support large-scale refined copper production efficiently is also lacking in the country. These challenges make refining less economically viable for Zambia compared to exporting unrefined copper. Graph 19 Global Importers of Unrefined Copper (Copper blister and anode) China 58% India 13% Belgium 10% Canada 9% Korea 3% Others 7% 15 TradeMap (HS Code 740200) – Copper Blister & Anode 69 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s2.9.3. Refined copper trade flow Figure 7 Trade Flows - Refined Copper Note: Figure is intended to illustrate trade flows but no actual trade routes. Graph 20 Global Refined copper Exporters16 Chile 22% DRC 21% Japan 7% Russia 7% Australia 4% Others 39% 16 HS Code 740311 – Trade Map 70 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sThe Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) in 2013 imposed an export ban on copper concentrate, aimed at boosting domestic processing. This move has positioned DRC as the second-largest exporter of refined copper only after Chile. Graph 21 Global Refined Copper Importers17 China 40% USA 9% Italy 6% Germany 5% Turkiye 5% Others 35% China consumes approximately 55-57% of the world's refined copper. Trade flow of copper scrap The global dynamics of scrap trade are poised for significant changes as major scrap-producing economies consider restricting scrap exports to promote domestic recycling and responsible processing. This shift is expected to impact countries with existing scrap refining capacities and influence the global supply chain for scrap materials. o European Union Countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands collectively exported approximately 1 MT of copper scrap in 2023, making the EU one of the major exporters. The “European Green Deal” emphasizes reducing waste, promoting recycling, and retaining valuable 17 TradeMap 71 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sraw materials within the EU. Ongoing discussions in EU are focusing on restricting the export of waste to non-OECD countries to boost domestic recycling efforts and enhance environmental sustainability. If a ban is imposed, it could lead to significant disruptions in the supply chain. o United States of America The United States is the largest copper scrap exporting nation, with 0.880 MT exported in 2023. There is growing awareness and concern regarding the environmental and health impacts associated with exporting scrap materials, particularly to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. Discussions are underway to ensure that exported scrap is processed responsibly and does not contribute to environmental degradation or health risks in receiving countries. o Japan Japan is the 2nd largest copper scrap exporting country, accounting for 0.375 MT in 2023. Renowned for its advanced recycling technology and waste management practices, Japan is investing heavily in cutting-edge recycling technologies and infrastructure to enhance its domestic recycling capacity. India ranks as the 3rd largest importer of scrap, with imports amounting to 0.310 MT in calendar year 2023. India has reduced the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on copper scrap to nil. Meanwhile, China imported 1.98 MT of copper scrap in the same year18. The heightened emphasis on domestic recycling by major scrap exporters is expected to disrupt the global scrap supply chain. In the short term, countries lacking the technological capacity for responsible scrap processing are likely to experience supply disruptions. 18 TradeMap 72 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTrade policy of leading copper-producing economies The global copper industry is undergoing significant policy-driven changes that aim to enhance domestic processing capacities and control the flow of raw materials. Indonesia has imposed a complete export ban on copper concentrate. This policy is designed to compel miners to invest in smelting facilities within the country, thereby boosting local processing capabilities. Similar measures have been also observed globally. For instance, since 2013, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has banned the export of copper and cobalt concentrate to encourage domestic processing. This move aligns with a broader trend where nations are seeking to add value within their borders. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have led to restrictive measures on metal exports. Europe and the USA have imposed restrictions on the import of Russian metals, including aluminum, copper, and nickel, in response to broader political conflicts. These restrictions aim to limit Russia's economic leverage derived from its substantial metal exports. China, a major player in the global copper market, has also tightened its regulations. In 2021, China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) announced it would no longer approve solid waste imports and set stringent minimum copper content requirements for imports of copper scrap to be >92%. This policy is part of China's broader environmental strategy to reduce pollution and ensure higher-quality raw material imports. In addition to that, Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with Japan, Korea, and UAE, where copper semis can come to India at zero or near-zero duties, is creating significant competitive challenges for domestic producers. These shifts indicate a global movement towards greater self-sufficiency in metal processing and stricter control over raw material exports. The impact of these policies will be felt across the supply chain, influencing global copper production, processing, and trade dynamics. 73 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 13 Taxation & Duties on Mining over Major Copper Producing Countries Western Chile Peru China DRC Australia Corporate 25% & income tax & 25% & 19% 30% & 10% 29.5% & 18% 30% & 16% 16% VAT Net profit Royalty base Operating margin Ad valorem Revenue Net revenue before tax 1% - 12% 8% - 26% 5%, 7.5% (depending Royalty depending on (beneficiated 6% 3.5% on operating operating margin ore, raw ore) margin) Special mining tax 50% Super profit 2% - 8.4% on tax – if Ad valorem tax: 1% the operating commodity Any other tax over annual copper - - margin of prices rise by sales profits 25% from obtained reference price quarterly India import Cu Cathode: 2.5% duties & at 50,000 Cu Cathode: Cu Cu Cathode: trade TPA and above this MFN rate & Cathode: Cu Cathode: 5% 5% agreement at MFN rates (5%) ECTA 5% with India & PTA 74 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sOngoing policies related to resource nationalism are expected to increase uncertainties around copper trade flows. As a result, major economies anticipating future demand are reassessing their trade policies & investing in securing overseas assets. India needs to intensify its efforts to address uncertainties in the supply of raw materials by adopting strategies similar to those employed by China. To secure its resource needs, China has proactively invested in foreign mining assets and established long-term offtake agreements, ensuring a stable and diversified supply chain. Currently, Chinese companies have ownership stakes in approximately 30 operational copper projects abroad, along with around 38 more in the exploration phase. In contrast, India has yet to match this level of strategic international engagement. To enhance its supply chain resiliency and reduce dependency on volatile global markets, India should prioritize foreign investments, build strategic partnerships, and negotiate offtake agreements in critical mineral sectors. 2.10. The challenges impacting the global copper market Miners in the copper industry need to navigate challenges from exploration to logistics & supply chain. These challenges include the high lead time for an asset to transition from exploration to the mining phase, obtaining permits for mining, managing community and social conflicts, addressing resource nationalism, and handling technical and financial risks over the medium to long term. Table 14 Challenges faced by players in copper value chain Value Chain Challenges Remarks • ~16.8 years to develop a new copper mine from • High Lead time of exploration to production. Open pit mines Exploration primary copper generally take longer when compared to mines underground mines to reach production due to longer exploration and regulatory approval. 75 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sValue Chain Challenges Remarks • Limited adoption of emerging exploration technologies to explore deep-seated minerals. • Near surface copper deposits are becoming scarcer, leading copper mining is moving deeper underground. • Chile and Peru have experienced political instability in recent years. Zambia changed its • Mining techniques tax regime and mining royalty 10 times in the Extraction • Political instability last decade. • Social opposition • Chile faces social conflicts against lithium and copper mining. Peru has a history of roadblocks by indigenous people in mining projects. • Resource nationalism initiatives in some countries to impact trade flows. • Ore grades at existing operations are expected to decline from an average of 0.61% in 2021 to 0.56% in 2030, will result in higher operational expenditure. • Technical Challenges • Tackling emissions is arguably the most Processing • Declining Ore Grades important environmental issue faced by players and Refining • Environmental in the copper value chain today. Required Concerns additional capex for adopting renewable energy source. • Lack of technology for utilization of sub-grade ore. 76 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sValue Chain Challenges Remarks • There is no clear plan for the large investments needed in new roads, water treatment, and • Lack of power grids in major copper ore-sourcing Infrastructure Logistics & countries. Investments in major Supply Chain • Unpaved roads in the mining corridor can slow sourcing countries. cargo during monsoon. • Climate Change • Extreme weather events across the globe will continue to loom large and impact operations 2.11. Key Takeaways for Indian copper sector As the global copper industry continues to evolve, it is crucial for the Indian copper sector to align with emerging trends and best practices to remain competitive and sustainable. The following key takeaways highlight the strategic areas that need focus to drive growth and efficiency in the Indian copper sector: • Focus on Exploration o Strong emphasis on both greenfield (new mines), brownfield (existing mines) and deep-sea exploration to enhance the potential of converting resources into reserves. • Foreign Asset Acquisition o Companies are pursuing foreign asset acquisitions through various strategic options such as Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), Joint Ventures (JVs), Government-to-Government (G2G) agreements, and sole ownership. For example, China Copper holds sole ownership of the Toromocho Copper mine in central Peru, while China Minmetals has acquired a copper mine in Botswana through sole ownership. 77 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Processing Hub Development o There is a push for countries to position themselves as processing hubs for copper. This initiative is aimed at meeting growing domestic demand and enhancing export capabilities. Establishing processing hubs will also contribute to value addition and economic growth. • Technological Adoption o By embracing the latest operational techniques, such as advanced mining and processing methods to boost copper recovery throughout the value chain, and by implementing digital technologies, the copper industry can significantly enhance process efficiency. • Promotion of Metal Recycling o Promoting metal recycling is essential for improving resource efficiency and maximizing scrap utilization. Developing a circular economy not only reduces waste but also ensures a sustainable supply of copper through the reuse and recycling of materials. This approach supports environmental sustainability and resource conservation. By focusing on these strategic areas, the Indian copper industry can enhance its resource base, improve operational efficiency, and meet the growing global demand sustainably. 78 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s3. COPPER AND INDIA 79 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s3. C opper and India Viksit Bharat@2047 represents India's bold and ambitious journey towards becoming a developed nation by the centenary of its independence. As the nation approaches this historic milestone, it envisions itself as a $35 trillion economy with a per capita income of $20,000 to $21,000. India aims to be a global leader in innovation and technology, a model for human development, and a nation that fosters sustainable growth. This vision marks a transformative era, where India emerges as a global leader in innovation, sustainability, and governance, setting new standards for excellence across industries such as transportation, telecommunications, renewable energy, and health care. The rise in metal intensity in line with GDP growth is expected to drive domestic copper usage in India. In addition to traditional sectors driven by economic growth, emerging sectors such as EVs and renewables will further contribute to copper demand. • Decarbonization intent of the nation o Reduce emission intensity of GDP by 33-35% o Share of non-fossil fuel-based electricity to be 40% • Rapid increase in fleet electrification o EV30@2030: 30% of newly registered private cars, 40% of buses, 70% of commercial cars, and 80% of 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers will be electric by 2030. o PM – EV Drive – Total fund support of INR 10,900 Crs. 80 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Rapid urbanization o 700-900 mn sq meters of commercial and residential space every year till 2030 . o Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY). o Smart City Mission, Udaan to boost infrastructure. • Rising disposable incomes o per capita income is likely to reach ~USD 4,000 by 2030 from ~USD 2,450. • Industrialization o Policies (Make in India, Atmanirbhar Bharat, PLI Schemes, Ujala Yojana, UMPP, etc.) promoting investment for manufacturing in India towards becoming self-reliance and emergence as manufacturing hub. Journey of Indian copper sector in the last decade In recent years, Indian Govt. has taken several steps for the sustainable development of domestic copper sector. 81 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s2015 • The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act (MMDR Act) introduced a significant reform by mandating the auctioning of mineral blocks as the primary method for granting mining leases. This move was aimed at enhancing transparency, fairness, and accountability in the allocation process. Through a competitive bidding process, the auction system ensures that mineral resources are allocated to entities offering the highest value to the government, thus maximizing public revenue. Additionally, it promotes a level playing field for private and public sector participants, encouraging more structured and long-term investments in the mining sector. The auction mechanism under the MMDR Act strengthens investor confidence and aligns resource governance with global best practices. 2018 • The closure of Vedanta’s Sterlite Copper plant in Tuticorin (Thoothukudi), Tamil Nadu, in May 2018 was a significant event driven by environmental concerns. The Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board ordered the shutdown, and despite Vedanta's efforts to reopen the plant, the Madras High Court and Supreme Court upheld the decision, citing public health and environmental protection. The closure impacted India's copper production, making the country a net importer. 2019 • In February 2019, the Government of Maharashtra initiated an e-auction for two copper composite licenses (CLs) in Chandrapur district. Vedanta Ltd emerged as the preferred bidder for both blocks—Thanewasna and Dubarpeth. These licenses, combining prospecting and mining rights, marked a significant step in India's strategy to bolster domestic copper production. • The closure of Hindustan Copper Limited's (HCL) Indian Copper Complex (ICC) smelter in Ghatshila, Jharkhand, has had a major impact on India's copper production capacity. This plant played a crucial role in converting copper concentrate into refined copper, catering to both domestic and international markets. Its shutdown has 82 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sworsened the country's copper supply shortage, further compounded by the earlier closure of Vedanta's Sterlite plant in Tuticorin. 2020 • Adani Enterprises, through its subsidiary Kutch Copper Limited (KCL), is developing a greenfield copper refinery in Mundra, Gujarat, with a planned capacity of 1 MTPA in phases. The initial phase involving a 0.5 MTPA refinery, started the installation in 2020. The second phase aims to double the capacity by 2029, making it the world’s largest single-location custom smelter. This project supports India's 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' initiative by reducing copper imports. 2021 • In the 2021–22 Union Budget, the Indian government lowered the import duty on copper scrap from 5% to 2.5%. This change was designed to encourage domestic copper recycling, improving resource efficiency and minimizing the environmental impact of primary copper production. By making recycled copper more cost-effective, the reduction incentivized local industries to invest in advanced recycling technologies, boosting competitiveness and profitability. Additionally, Indian government reduced the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on copper concentrate from 5% to 2.5%. This move aimed at lowering the cost of copper production, benefiting industries reliant on imported concentrates. • Launched in 2021, the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme for White Goods includes copper tubes as one of its eligible components. The scheme provides incentives ranging from 6% to 4% on incremental sales over a five-year period, aimed at fostering the growth of the white goods sector and reducing reliance on imports. 2022 • In 2022, Vedanta Ltd won Ghanpur Mudholi (West) CL copper block in Maharashtra, increased Vedanta’s copper mining portfolio further. • In November 2022, the Ministry of Mines formed a seven-member committee tasked with identifying minerals vital to India's economic growth and national security. The committee presented a report recommending 30 minerals as critical, including 83 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine scopper, cobalt, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements. The selection was based on factors like economic significance, supply risks, and strategic importance for sectors such as energy, defense, and technology. This initiative seeks to minimize import dependence and strengthen India’s self-reliance in the supply chains of critical minerals. 2023 • In 2023, the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) issued the Copper Products (Quality Control) Order, 2023, under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) Act, 2016. This order requires nine specific copper products to meet Indian Standards (IS) and display the BIS Standard Mark. These products include copper wire rods, electrical rods and bars, copper strips, solid drawn copper tubes, and copper wires for general engineering use. The goal of this order is to improve the quality of domestically produced copper products, reduce the import of substandard goods. • In 2023, India made significant strides in its efforts to secure critical minerals by auctioning two CL copper blocks. Shitalpani Copper Block in Madhya Pradesh won by The Commodity Hub and Minzhari Copper Block won by Hindalco. 2024 • In the 2024–25 Union Budget, the Indian government announced the removal of the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on copper concentrate, cutting it from 2.5% to 0%. This change is intended to reduce copper production costs by making imported concentrates more cost-effective. Additionally, it aligns with the government's broader objectives of boosting domestic manufacturing and fostering self-reliance in critical mineral supply chains, ultimately enhancing India’s competitiveness in the global copper market. • In October 2024, the Indian government introduced a Reverse Charge Mechanism (RCM) for metal scrap transactions under GST. This move aims to improve tax compliance in the informal metal scrap sector, formalize the industry, and reduce tax evasion. 84 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s2025 • In the Union Budget of 2025, the Indian government announced the removal of Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on waste and scrap from twelve critical minerals, including copper. This decision is designed to support domestic manufacturing by ensuring a reliable and affordable supply of key materials such as copper, cobalt, lithium-ion battery waste, lead, and zinc. Furthermore, the government is working towards implementing the policies aimed at recovering critical minerals from mining by- products, further enhancing the resilience of the supply chain. 3.1. Domestic sector-wise usage of copper With a CAGR of approximately 13.15%, there is a significant increase in domestic refined copper usage from 0.489 MT in 2019 to 0.84 MT in 2024. India's refined copper consumption surged more than 0.7 MT in 2023 and 2024, driven by extensive government infrastructure initiatives, a significant shift towards renewable energy, and growth in the automotive and electric vehicle sectors. Graph 22 Domestic refined copper usage (MT) 4 8 3 . 0 7 . 0 2 4 5 7 5 . 0 4 . 0 . 0 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 The government's ambitious targets for renewable energy, including a 500 GW capacity by 2032, and major infrastructure projects under the National Infrastructure Pipeline, have boosted demand. The construction and real estate sectors, accounting for 43% of copper use, and the 85 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sautomotive and consumer durables sectors, each contributing 11% and 12% respectively, have also grown substantially. Refined copper imports grew by 30% in FY2023 and 180% in H1 FY2024, highlighting robust domestic demand that outpaced local production. Graph 23 Domestic sector-wise copper usage 17% 24% 12% 19% 11% 17% Building Construction Infrastructure Industrial Transportation Consumer Durables Diverse Distribution of copper demand by product type, with copper rods accounting for a significant 65% of the total demand. Copper rods are essential in various sectors due to their excellent electrical conductivity, durability, and versatility. They are primarily used in the construction, electrical, and power distribution sectors. • Copper Rods (65% of demand): Copper rods are extensively used in electrical applications such as power distribution and transmission lines, grounding systems, and in the manufacturing of electrical components like bus bars, switchgear, and transformers. Continuous cast copper rods are the primary feed material for the wire and cable industries. Copper rods' high electrical conductivity and thermal properties make them ideal for these applications, ensuring efficient energy transmission and reduced energy losses. • Tubes & Pipes (9% of demand): Copper tubes and pipes are widely utilized in plumbing, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Their resistance to corrosion 86 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sand high thermal conductivity make them suitable for refrigerant lines in air conditioning systems and for water distribution in both residential and commercial buildings. • Rolled Mills (16% of demand): Copper sheets and strips produced by rolled mills are crucial in the electronics industry. They are used in the manufacturing of printed circuit boards (PCBs), connectors, and other electronic components due to their excellent conductivity and reliability. These materials are also employed in roofing, cladding, and other architectural applications for their durability and aesthetic appeal. • Copper in Finished Goods Imports (4% of demand): This category includes copper components that are part of imported finished goods, such as electrical appliances, machinery, and automotive parts. The increase in demand for consumer electronics and electric vehicles has contributed to the growth in this segment. • Other Semi-Finished Products (6% of demand): This segment comprises various semi- finished copper products, including rods, bars, and profiles, which are used in a range of industrial applications. These products are essential in the manufacturing of mechanical parts, fittings, and fasteners, providing strength and resistance to wear and corrosion. Graph 24 Domestic product-wise copper demand 6% 4% 16% 9% 65% Copper Rod Tubes & Pipes Rolled Mills Other Semis Copper in FG Imports 87 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sDomestic apparent copper usage grew by approximately 13% in FY24, reaching around 1.72 million tonnes (MT) compared to 1.52 MT in FY23. The demand for copper was primarily driven by urbanization and higher disposable income, particularly in sectors like building construction, consumer goods, and automobiles. Additionally, government initiatives and both public and private investments in infrastructure and industrial sectors further boosted copper consumption. The copper demand in the net-zero transition accounted for around 4% of total demand in FY24, approximately 0.064 MT, representing a 27% growth from FY23, with 56% of this demand coming from renewable energy and the rest from electric vehicles and charging infrastructure. 3.2. Resource and reserve across regions in India India possesses approximately 1.66 BT of copper ore resources. Of these, 163.89 MT (9.87%) are classified as 'Reserves,' while the remaining 1.5 BT (90.13%) are categorized as 'Remaining Resources'. The total metal content from these copper resources amounts to 12.20 MT, with reserves constituting 2.16 MT19. The state of Rajasthan holds the largest resources of copper ore, amounting to 868 MT (52.25%). This is followed by Madhya Pradesh with 387 MT (23.28%) and Jharkhand with 251 MT (15.14%). Additionally, copper resources are found in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Odisha, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttarakhand, and West Bengal. These states collectively account for the remaining 9.33% of the total copper resources in the country. 19 IBM 88 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sFigure 8 Indian Copper Resources Snapshot India's copper resources present a significant untapped potential, with 35.3% of these resources having more than 1% copper grade. This indicates a promising opportunity to boost domestic ore production in the future. To capitalize on this, India needs to further strengthen its domestic exploration efforts to increase its reserves. Graph 25 Grade-wise distribution of Indian Copper Resources 0.5% 16.1% >=1.85% Cu grade >=1 - <1.85% Cu grade 35.3% >=0.5% - <1% Cu grade 48.0% <0.5% Cu grade 89 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sIn this context, in 2021, a provision was made in the MMDR Act for notification of accredited private exploration agencies under section 4(1) of the Act and such agencies were also made eligible for funding through NMET. Further, NMET was made an autonomous body in 2021. In 2023, a new mineral concession viz. exploration license was introduced in the MMDR Act. NMET has streamlined the process of sanctioning and releasing funds for the fast implementation of exploration projects. A scheme for partial reimbursement of exploration expenses for Composite Licenses (CL) holders has been formulated for the exploration of certain minerals. Figure 9 State-wise preliminary explored blocks Exploration license incentivizes the exploration of 29 critical and deep-seated minerals (includes Copper). This initiative is expected to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and junior mining companies for exploration activities in India. Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL), a government public sector undertaking (PSU), added ~66.59 MT of copper ore resources during FY23 and 56.88 MT in FY24, bringing the total copper ore 90 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sresources of the enterprise to ~755 MT at an average grade of 0.95%. HCL’s budget for exploration has been increased nearly fivefold20 compared to the expenditure over the past decade. In addition to terrestrial deposits, India is also exploring deep-sea resources. The country holds two exploration licenses and plans to launch its Samudrayan mission by 2026. This mission aims to explore polymetallic nodules, which cover vast areas of the abyssal ocean floor and contain significant amounts of critical metals such as manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt. 3.3. Copper Supply Scenario India remains a net importer of copper products throughout the entire copper value chain; hence, to meet the growing demand of copper, India needs to embrace strategic initiatives across the value chain. Figure 10 Copper supply snapshot Mining and beneficiation Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) is the only copper miner in India, having a mining capacity of ~4 MT. India's mined copper production has remained static for the last few years. The transition from opencast to underground mining at Malanjkhand Copper Project in Madhya Pradesh, delays 20 Secondary Research 91 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sin extension and execution of mining leases in Jharkhand, and water shortages in Khetri, Rajasthan were the major reasons for stagnating production levels. However, HCL plans to ramp up ore production by 3x to 9.6 MTPA in short-term and ~12.2 MTPA in long-term. Proposed expansion in Malanjkhand Copper Project is expected to increase the production from 2.5 MTPA to 5 MTPA. Table 15 Operational status of HCL Mines Production Production (MT) State HCL Mines Remark (MT) FY23 FY24 Rajasthan KCC 1.00 1.23 Operational Madhya MCP 2.31 2.55 Operational Pradesh Surda: Received EC and operationalized in FY25 Kendadih: Lease execution is awaited due to statutory Jharkhand ICC 0.03 - clearances Rakha: Lease execution is awaited due to statutory clearances, LOA issued to Mine Developer cum Operator (MDO) Total Production 3.34 3.78 92 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sThe stagnation in copper ore production at Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) can be attributed to regulatory delays & approvals and Operational Challenges. Graph 26 Indian Copper ore production / Hindustan Copper Production (MT) 4.12 3.97 3.78 3.57 3.27 3.35 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 To augment the domestic supply of copper ore except HCL, the GoI has auctioned five copper CL blocks since 2015. The auctioned CL blocks have been envisaged to have potential combined geological resource of more than ~14 MT. Upon successful exploration activities, it has been expected that these blocks can start production in coming 10 years. Table 16 Auctioned copper mines Name of the Auction Preferred Present status of the State block date bidder block The SOP submitted, Madhya Shitalpani Copper 9/9/2023 Commodity pending for forest Pradesh Block Hub clearances, LoI Maharashtra Thanewasana 5/8/2019 Vedanta Exploration underway Maharashtra Dubarpeth 5/9/2019 Vedanta Block surrendered GhanpurMudholi Maharashtra 3/31/2022 Vedanta Ongoing Exploration (West) Minzhari Copper SOP preparation Maharashtra 11/21/2023 Hindalco Block underway 93 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sDue to domestic supply constraints, domestic copper smelters have been largely dependent on imports of copper concentrates. Copper concentrate imports in India have remained around 1 million tonnes over the past three years. Graph 27 Domestic MIC production (MT) from HCL 0.032 0.032 0.027 0.027 0.024 0.025 0.025 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Static mining production, as a result of various operational factors impacted domestic concentrate (MIC) production. Closure of Sterlite Copper in 2018 impacted copper conc. import by 44% in FY19 compared to FY18. In FY25, copper concentrate imports are expected to increase as Adani’s Kutch Copper commenced operations of its 0.5 MT copper unit in Mundra in March 2024. Graph 28 Copper Concentrate import and export (MT) 1.488 1.179 1.019 1.016 0.824 0.822 0.415 0.182 0.213 0.061 0.082 0.035 0.026 0.023 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Import Export 94 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sIn CY2023, India imported ~1 MT of copper concentrate, with a significant portion of these imports coming from a handful of countries. Indonesia stands as the top exporter, accounting for about 27% of India's copper ore and concentrate imports, followed by Chile at 25% and Peru at 14%. Additionally, Panama contributes to 9% of these imports. Collectively, these four countries are responsible for around 75% of India's copper concentrate imports. Figure 11 Indian Copper Concentrate Imports21 This concentration of supply leaves India in a precarious position, particularly because ~90% of the country's copper concentrate requirements were met through imports in FY24. Looking ahead, this dependency is projected to increase to about 95% by FY30. Such heavy reliance on a few key exporters exposes the Indian copper industry to significant risks, including supply chain disruptions due to policy changes or export bans in these nations. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, it is crucial for India to adopt a multifaceted strategy. Apart from increasing downstream capacities, India must focus on enhancing its domestic mining 21 TradeMap (HS Code – 260300) 95 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine scapabilities. Additionally, investing in foreign assets and diversifying its supply chain are essential steps to ensure stability and reduce dependency on imports. By enhancing the nation's recycling capabilities, India can further safeguard its copper industry against potential disruptions and foster greater self-reliance in this critical sector. Refined copper In terms of refined copper, India became a net importer of refined copper following the closure of Vedanta’s 0.400 MTPA Sterlite Copper Thoothukudi plant in May 2018. Domestic refined copper production increased from 0.453 MT in FY19 to 0.509 MT in FY24, growing at a CAGR of approximately ~2.4%. In FY24, domestic refined copper production stood at 0.509 MT, with India importing 0.363 MT and exporting 0.028 MT. Downstream-focused policies have increased demand, resulting in a surge of cathode imports. Table 17 Domestic refined copper production (KT) Annual Production (KT) Refined Cu Company Capacity (KT) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 HCL 68.5 26 16 5 - 0.62 0.007 - Hindalco 500 414 347 326 262 359 407 368 Vedanta 216 (Silvassa) 403 90 77 101 125 148 141 Total 784.5 843 453 408 364 485 555 509 With the commissioning of the new 500 KT smelter and refinery in Mundra, domestic cathode production is expected to rise. In FY23, 71% of imported refined copper was from Japan, attributed to the FTA between India and Japan. 96 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sSmelting & refining technology is predominantly from Finland and Japan, being leveraged globally. Adani for their Mundra facility, utilizing Nerin technology from China, capable of handling scrap for secondary refining route. Table 18 Technology being used by Indian players Availability of Name of Name of Name of Country of Location Indian Plant Company Technology Origin Equivalent Vedanta Tuticorin ISA, MIM Australia No Limited Mitsubishi & No Hindalco Japan & Dahej Flash Smelting Industries Finland Outotec Smelter Nerin (modified No Mundra Adani Group China flash) Flash Smelting No Ghatsila HCL Finland Outotec Vedanta No Tuticorin ISA, MIM Australia Limited Refinery Hindalco No Dahej ISA, MIM Australia Industries Mundra Adani Group Nerin China No 97 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 19 Comparison of pyrometallurgy process Nerin (China) Mitsubishi (Japan) Pyrometallurgy modified Flash Primarily Pyrometallurgy Continuous Process type Smelting Smelting Cost-effectiveness and high Operational consistency, with a high throughput, making their facilities level of automation and integration, Operational suitable for handling diverse contributing higher operational stability efficiency feedstocks, including lower-grade copper losses in slag is lower, leading to of concentrate recovery rates exceeding 95% Utilization of Capable of handling scrap upto scrap for 20%, promoting sustainability and Can handle upto 5% scrap for secondary secondary high-quantity secondary copper refining in smelting facility refining feedstock Adopted more efficient Advanced off-gas cleaning systems and Environmental technologies for improved gas a robust commitment to minimizing considerations recovery rates and reduced ecological impact, having lower energy emissions consumption and emissions Declining TC/RC, impacting the domestic primary producers. TC fell from US$80/tonne conc. in 2024 to US$21.3/tonne conc. in 2025, reflecting a ~73% drop in a year due to supply-tight scenario and over expansion of smelter & refineries. TC is expected to slide further to $8/tonne by late 2025 or 2026, driven by concentrate deficit and relentless smelter competition. 98 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 29 TC/RC price trend in copper 12 150 10 8 100 6 4 50 2 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 RC (c/lb Cu) TC ($/t Conc) From the high of 27.4 c/lb in 2015, the combined TC/RC has softened to 5.4 c/lb in 2025, mainly due to strong smelter growth in China. During 2025, the drastic drop in TC/RC is on account of multiple developments including non-availability of Indonesian concentrate, new smelter additions in Indonesia, India and China and closure of Cobre Panama mine. TC/RC to be subdued for next two years after which the tightness in concentrate market is expected to reduce with augmented mining output and addition of new mines. Graph 30 Indian Copper Cathode Snapshot (MT) 99 | Co ppe r Visio n Do c ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sInitiatives taken to secure supply chain resiliency Establishment of National Mineral Exploration Trust (NMET) (MMDR Act, 2015): The primary purpose of NMET is to systematically explore and identify new mineral resources across the country. By providing funding and support for exploration activities, NMET aims to uncover new mineral deposits, ensuring a steady and reliable supply of essential minerals to meet industrial demands and strengthen the supply chain. MMDR Act, 2021: The amendment to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 2021 aims to accelerate the pace and participation of the private sector in mineral exploration and extraction. A provision was made in the MMDR Act for notification of accredited private exploration agencies under section 4(1) of the Act and such agencies were also made eligible for funding through NMET. Further, NMET was made an autonomous body in 2021. By easing regulatory requirements and providing incentives, the amendment seeks to attract more private investment, thereby boosting exploration activities and increasing mineral production. This increased involvement from the private sector is expected to enhance the efficiency and resilience of the supply chain. Issuance of Composite Licenses: In 2023, the Ministry of Mines issued composite licenses for significant copper blocks, including the Shitalpani Copper Block in Madhya Pradesh and the Minzhar Copper Block in Maharashtra. Additionally, the Ministry announced the auctioning of the Dudhiasol East Nickel and Copper Block in Odisha. By encouraging investment and expediting resource development, these measures help ensure a more resilient supply chain. National Mineral Policy 2019: Issued in February 2019, the National Mineral Policy includes provisions to promote the export of minerals in value-added forms. This policy aims to enhance the value chain by encouraging the processing and refining of minerals within the country before export. By adding more value domestically, the policy not only boosts export revenues but also stabilizes the supply chain by ensuring a steady supply of high-quality, value-added mineral products. 100 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sIntroduction of Non-Ferrous Metal Import Monitoring System (NFMIMS): The Ministry of Mines has introduced the Non-Ferrous Metal Import Monitoring System (NFMIMS) specifically for copper. NFMIMS provides advanced and accurate import information, including the exact quantities of copper being imported. This system assists the copper industry in planning its pricing and production strategies by providing critical data on import trends. By enabling more informed decision-making, NFMIMS contributes to a more stable and resilient supply chain for copper. Industry Delegation to Copper Countries: The Ministry of Mines plans to send industry delegation to countries rich in copper resources, to explore potential copper exploration and mining projects. This international collaboration aims to diversify and secure additional sources of copper, thereby reducing dependency on domestic resources alone. By establishing strong ties with copper-rich countries, India can enhance its supply chain resilience and ensure a steady supply of this critical metal. The India-Chile Mining Industry Round Table, held in April 2025, emphasized strengthening cooperation in copper exploration, production, and value-added processing. With Chile’s global leadership in copper and India’s growing demand, both nations aim to deepen collaboration for a resilient mineral supply chain. Effective utilization of copper slag Copper slag is a waste during pyrometallurgical production of copper from copper concentrates causing environmental pollution, hence various studies have been conducted for utilizing copper slag in construction industries towards sustainable management of by-products. • Copper slag as construction material o India is the largest consumer (~60%) of river sand for construction use compared to global average (~30%). o BIS 383:2016 – Copper slag is an approved material to be used in concrete as fine aggregates, which can replace river sand up to 50% depending on the type of concrete. 101 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine so Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change of India (MoEF&CC) has established guidelines for mandatory usage of by-product (fly-ash) in construction. Similar guideline may be established to promote copper slag usage nearby smelters region. Guidelines may be established mandating the inclusion of copper slag for all state government projects. This will help promote its widespread use in road construction and other infrastructure projects. • Copper slag in PSC manufacturing o According to IS 455:1989, blast furnace slag can currently be used up to 70% in PSC production. o Standard was originally developed to promote the utilization of blast furnace slag in cement manufacturing. o Kutch Copper Limited (KCL) conducted a study with National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCCBM) to replace blast furnace slag in Portland Slag Cement (PSC) with copper slag – using a combination of copper slag and blast furnace slag to produce cement can provide required strength. o BIS to amend IS 455:1989 to include copper slag as a permissible material in the production of slag cement which will facilitate the usage and enhance sustainability. • Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) from copper slag – various studies have been conducted in China for recovering iron from copper slag by a coal-based direct reduction and magnetic separation process. 3.4. Major copper producers and their expansion Plans India's major copper producers are embarking on strategic expansion plans to ensure a steady supply of refined copper for domestic consumption. This response is driven by the need to bridge the supply-demand gap and support the country's growing industrial and technological sectors. 102 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sThe initiatives involve ramping up production capacities, establishing new facilities, and exploring international opportunities. Figure 12 Presence of Indian copper producers Two different production routes exist (pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical), depending on the characteristics of the raw material— sulfide or oxide ores. Production from secondary sources is fed by copper scrap. After initial treatment, which usually includes sorting and shredding, the copper scrap enters the pyrometallurgical production process at different stages. Copper refining is concentrated in 20 countries in the world and India is fortunate to have 1.285 MT of smelting and refining capacity, which will be 1.785 MT by 2029, with the coming up of Kutch Copper Ltd (Adani Group). 103 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sIndia's major copper producers are proactively expanding their production capacities and establishing new facilities to ensure a stable and sufficient supply of copper for domestic needs. These strategic initiatives are essential to meet the rising demand for industrial growth and technological advancements. Companies like HCL, Hindalco, Vedanta, and Adani are positioning themselves to strengthen the country's copper supply chain and support its economic development by enhancing production, setting up new plants, and exploring international opportunities. These efforts will be pivotal in maintaining the competitiveness and sustainability of India's copper industry in the global market. Table 20 Major copper players expansion plans Company Remarks • Ramp up overall ore production by ~3x to 9.6 MTPA by FY29 and 12.2 MTPA subsequently, further enhancement is subject to feasibility and availability of HCL copper resources. • The proposed MCP expansion is expected to increase the output to 5 MTPA. • Plan to invest Rs 2,000 crore to establish a copper and e-waste recycling facility. Hindalco • Expansion of downstream business through the acquisition of copper rods facility. • Set up of 0.125 MTPA CC Rod plant in Saudi Arabia. Vedanta • In the process of operationalization of Konkola Copper mines in Zambia. • $1.2 billion copper refinery project in Mundra, Gujarat having capacity of 0.5 Adani MTPA in phase I. • Phase-II expansion to add 0.5 MTPA by 2029. • JSW Group plans to set up a 500 KTPA copper smelter/refinery in Odisha with JSW feedstock of copper concentrate from Peru, Chile, and domestic supply. 104 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s3.5. Trade flows 3.5.1. Import and export overview The Indian copper industry is marked by a persistent trade deficit, with imports vastly surpassing exports from FY18 to FY24. This period saw significant fluctuations in trade values, with imports rising notably from INR 40,057 crore in FY21 to INR 88,623 crore in FY23. The import composition in FY23 highlights a strong dependence on raw and semi-processed materials, such as copper concentrate (31%), anode copper for refining (18%), and refined copper and alloys (15%)22. This reliance underscores the necessity for India to expand its domestic production and refining capabilities to meet its industrial demand, primarily driven by the manufacturing and construction sectors. The observed export volatility suggests that improving the competitiveness and quality of Indian copper products could stabilize and boost exports. Additionally, fostering a robust recycling ecosystem could reduce import dependency and align with global sustainability trends. Enhancing local production, refining infrastructure, and recycling initiatives are crucial to addressing the strategic challenges in India's copper industry. The Sterlite plant closure had a significant impact on copper concentrate imports, which dropped from 1.488 MT in FY18 to 0.824 MT in FY19. Consequently, the value of copper exports in all forms plummeted from ₹22,415 crore to ₹8,666 crore, a 159% decline influenced by the Sterlite copper’s shutdown. Meanwhile, copper imports in all forms decreased from ₹56,873 crore to ₹49,019 crore, a 16% reduction, driven by the drop in concentrate imports. The COVID-19 pandemic further disrupted copper demand, causing a contraction in FY20 and FY21. However, demand began to recover steadily from FY22 onwards. Despite this recovery, the Indian copper industry has been marked by a persistent trade deficit, with imports significantly outpacing exports from FY18 to FY23. Imports notably increased from INR 40,057 crore in FY21 to INR 88,623 crore in FY23. 22 Ministry of Commerce 105 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 31 India's Import and Export of Copper (all forms) (INR Cr) 56,873 FY18 22,415 49,019 FY19 8,666 44,769 FY20 8,105 40,057 FY21 10,978 74,976 FY22 17,535 88,623 FY23 13,714 Import Export The import composition in FY23 revealed a strong dependence on raw and semi-processed materials, such as copper concentrate (31%), anode copper for refining (18%), and refined copper and alloys (15%). The commencement of Adani’s 0.5 MT copper unit in Mundra is expected to reduce refined copper imports. This plant is projected to add an additional 0.5 MT by 2029, aligning capacities to decrease refined copper imports further. However, imports of primary raw materials will increase. Graph 32 India’s Cu Import Category wise share in FY23 Copper Concentrate 6% 8% Anode Copper for 31% Refining 9% Copper Waste and srap 13% Refined Copper and alloy 18% Copper Wire 15% 106 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s3.6. Secondary copper and processing in India In FY24, India imported 0.310 MT of copper scrap, marking an 10% CAGR compared to FY18. This growth can be attributed to the reduction in import duty on copper scrap from 5% to 2.5% in the Union Budget 2021-22. With initiatives such as the Vehicle Scrapping Policy, Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), and Reverse Charge Mechanism (RCM), recycling in India is expected to increase further. However, refining low-grade scrap in India is currently limited, with direct melting predominantly used for secondary production. With the implementation of policies like the Quality Control Order (QCO), India is poised to expand its secondary refining capacity, reducing the share of direct melting in the coming years. Graph 33 Copper scrap trade 10% CAGR 310 271 257 250 229 212 174 5 7 9 9 20 15 19 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Import Export Table 21 Copper recycling benefits, challenges and solutions in copper recycling Aspects Remarks • Recycling consumes significantly lesser energy than primary extraction. Benefits of Copper • Decreases air and water pollution, lower greenhouse gas Recycling emissions. • Reduces landfill waste, promotes circular economy. 107 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sAspects Remarks Challenges in • Emissions and toxic elements handling. Secondary Copper • EOL scrap is often heterogeneous and contaminated. Production • Efficient collection systems, public awareness, advanced sorting technologies. Solutions in Copper • Stringent quality control, refining technologies. Recycling • Government incentives, subsidies, public-private partnerships. 3.7. Key trends and drivers important for growth of Secondary Copper sector The ramp-up of copper recycling facilities is primarily driven by constraints in primary metal supply, the need to reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainability, and ensuring the security of metal supply. Table 22 Key trends and drivers of secondary copper sector Key Trends Details Examples • Current dynamics clash with climate goals and • China processes 3.5 MT Rebalancing supply security. of copper scrap of secondary • Policies drive deglobalization of scrap trade, annually, 60% metal supply creating new domestic processing. imported. chains • Onshoring scrap supply through stricter quality • North America collects standards and import restrictions. 1.5 MT, 40% exported. 108 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sKey Trends Details Examples • Ensure consistent supply, quality, and compliance • Rio Tinto's acquisition Vertical through value chain ownership. of a 50% stake in integration • Heightened environmental, social, and Matalco for access to and governance oversight. upstream scrap yards consolidation • New business models and innovative recycling in across North America. nascent markets like EV lithium-ion batteries. • Aluminum packaging recycling rates vary • Minimum recycled content laws boost demand Alleviating from 45% in the US to for high-grade material. tight scrap 90% in Brazil. • Efficient collection, sorting, and processing will supply • Copper foil for EV shape the industry. batteries requires high- grade scrap. • Scrap is expected to be complex in near future (Solar Panels, EVs, E-Waste etc.). • BASF and HGI • Natural resources become scarcer and partnership using Revolution in environmental concerns rise giving rise to Urban geophysical techniques recycling mining. and LixTRA leach aid for technology • Enhanced material tracking in scrap ensures improved copper better monitoring, classification, and reuse of recovery. valuable metals. • Carbon prices and • Secondary material prices are set by reporting Disruption to border adjustment agencies. pricing mechanisms help make • Scrap metal prices are discounted from primary mechanisms the underutilized scrap metal prices based on regional supply-demand. pool more economical. 109 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sKey Trends Details Examples • Regulations, tariffs, and carbon policies will impact scrap pricing and historical relationships. • Consumer willingness to pay green premiums is vital for recyclers' profitability. 3.8. Safeguarding against future high prices by building functional reserves In 2024 LME price of copper fluctuates between $ 8,500 – 10,500 /t. Potential disruptions to supply, notably in South America due to depletion of mines, falling ore grades, lack of investment, and long project timescales are expected to drive the prices even higher in the long run. Analysts forecast global electrification will push copper demand to 36.6 MT by 2035, however, supply is anticipated to reach 30.1 MT creating a deficit of 6.5 MT23. Graph 34 LME price over the years 14,000 Increased supply, and slowing demand 12,000 10,000 8,000 China’s Industrialization and Global economic growth 6,000 4,000 Supply constraints, 2,000 global transition to clean energy, and EVs 0 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 23 IISD – Copper Report 110 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sIn FY23 India had a trade deficit worth $ ~3 billion24 in copper concentrates with the expected increase in demand, price and insufficient domestic reserves concentrate import bill is expected to further increase. India needs to reduce reliance on concentrate imports to safeguard itself from supply chain disruptions and to preserve its forex reserves by increasing domestic scrap availability. Graph 35 Copper in use (MT), 202025 World 470.0 China 116.1 North America 85.8 EU 83.4 Latin America 29.4 Japan 27.1 India 15.2 Copper which is 100% recyclable, and the metal used today can be used again & again, is going to help the nation reduce future imports of copper concentrates, which will be needed for our economic development. China has ~116.1 MT of copper within the country, accounting for ~25% of global scrap in use. This copper can be recycled in about 20 years, which will be highly beneficial for hedging against potential supply chain disruptions. In contrast, India has only 15.2 MT, making even copper scrap scarce. Government policies could be introduced to stimulate domestic demand for copper by standardizing the copper content in end-use products and mandating the use of such products in government projects to promote copper usage could increase India’s copper use. Additionally, 24 Ministry of Commerce 25 ICA 111 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sincreasing public awareness of the benefits of copper in everyday applications such as could help achieve a higher standard of living and greater energy efficiency. 3.9. Key highlights of the Indian copper sector India has been largely dependent on imports of primary raw materials for refined copper production. To reduce this dependency, the Government of India (GoI) has increased its focus on exploration through the introduction of Exploration Licenses (EL) and deep-sea exploration initiatives. To address the insufficient domestic resources, the GoI has formed KABIL, launched the Critical Mineral Mission, and joined the Mineral Security Partnership (MSP) to secure the nation’s supply of critical minerals. The domestic copper sector should work toward diversifying the raw material supply chain, decreasing reliance on imported refined copper, and organizing the secondary copper sector. In addition to traditional sectors such as infrastructure and Transmission & Distribution (T&D) driven by urbanization and economic growth, India's copper demand will be further boosted by emerging sectors such as renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs). In FY25, India’s reliance on imported refined copper is expected to decrease with the establishment of new refining unit. About 38% of India's copper demand is currently met through the direct melting of scrap, with only a negligible amount being refined. However, India plans to implement policies such as the Quality Control Order (QCO), which are expected to increase secondary refining in the country. 112 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s4. BENCHMARKING WITH OTHER COUNTRIES: CHINA AND JAPAN 113 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s4. B enchmarking with Other Countries: China and Japan India's refined copper production peaked at 0.843 MT in FY18 but witnessed a significant decline following the closure of the Tuticorin plant. In contrast, countries like China and Japan have achieved remarkable growth and sustainability through strategic investments, policies, and innovations. Production of refined copper: Table 23 Comparative analysis of Refined Copper production Metric India China Japan Stagnant MIC Rapid growth in refined Stable demand, Production production, drop in copper (0.5 MT to 11 minimal imports (8 KT Trends refined copper (0.8 MT MT) refined copper in 2022) to 0.5 MT) Environmental Key Decline post-Sterlite Aging domestic supply oversight, trade Challenges closure sources tensions Renewable Energy Law Policy Limited focus on copper Recycling Law (2001), (2005), Belt and Road Support demand Overseas acquisitions Initiatives 114 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTaxation and financial incentives: Table 24 Taxation and Financial Incentives Metric India China Japan ~40% Domestic, ~55% 15%-35% (1990s), ~50% (1990s), 25-30% Corporate Tax Foreign (1990s) 25% (2023) (2023) Export/Import BCD on Copper Conc.: Tariff on Copper Tariff on Copper Conc.: Taxes 5% (1990), 0% (2024) Conc.: 15% (2000) 0% (Early 2000s) Investment in INR 10,000 Cr Solar Grid $30-$38 Bn (2004- $184 Bn (2005) Renewables (FY 25 Budget) 2005) JETRO subsidies for Special Incentives Limited Direct SOE funding exports Scrap and recycling policies: Table 25 Scrap and Recycling Policies Metric India China Japan Banned imports of Import duty reduced on lower-quality Home Appliance Recycling Focus on copper scrap from 5% categories of scrap in Law (2001) to support the Copper to 2.5% (2021), further 2018 and 2019. 1.5% recycling of copper from Scrap to 0% (2025) tax on imported discarded appliances recycled copper 115 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sInvestment in acquisition strategies: Table 26 Investment and Acquisition Strategies Factor India China Japan Apex NDRC seamless Government None JBIC funding approvals Body Limited to Overseas Debt-trap diplomacy, Joint Ventures (e.g., Lithium (Li) Acquisitions BRI-funded projects Mitsubishi in Escondida) assets $16 Bn in 88 assets Major internal funding, Investment None (since 2010) Japanese banks Infrastructure Heavy investments in Advanced logistics and Minimal Support roads, beneficiation community development Case Studies of Major Acquisitions by China and Japan: • China: Acquisition of Las Bambas (Peru) for $5.85 Bn (2014) and Tenke Fungurume (DRC) for $2.65 Bn (2016) through state-owned enterprises (SOEs), backed by loans from CDB and Axim Bank. 116 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Japan: Mitsubishi Corporation's acquisition of a 10% stake in the Escondida mine (Chile) and a 15% stake in Grasberg mine (Indonesia) through joint ventures, supported by Japanese government loans and internal funding. 117 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s5. EXPECTED GROWTH OF DOMESTIC COPPER SECTOR 118 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s5. E xpected growth of domestic copper sector 5.1. Expected growth of copper usage in short-term (2030) and Amrit Kaal (2047) India’s domestic apparent copper demand is projected to reach 8.8 - 9.8 million tonnes by FY47, with per capita apparent consumption anticipated to increase from ~1.2 kg in FY24 to 5.4 - 6 kg, reflecting a 4.5 - 5-fold growth over 23 years. Comparative historical trends indicate that China’s per capita refined copper consumption rose from 1.04 kg in 1994 to 7.04 kg by 2011, representing a seven-fold increase over 17 years. By 2022, China’s per capita copper consumption stood at 10.49 kg, with further growth expected due to the global transition towards electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy26. In the United States, per capita refined copper consumption was recorded at 8 kg in 1950, reaching a peak of 11 kg before stabilizing. Presently, U.S. consumption remains in the range of 5-7 kg per capita27. These historical patterns suggest that India’s consumption will increase even after 2047. Graph 36 Historical and projected domestic apparent copper demand (in MT) Scenario 1: This has been derived by considering realistic GDP growth of the nation Scenario 2: This has been derived by considering optimistic GDP growth of the nation 26 ICA 27 USGS 119 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sDrivers shaping the growth trajectory • Urbanization & higher disposable income o India’s urban population is expected to grow from 508 million (~35%) in 2023 to 675 million (~43%) in 2035. o Industrialization fueling sectoral copper demand (policy promoting investment in for manufacturing in India). o Metal intensity to rise with GDP growth (estimated to reach from ~USD 3.7 Tn to ~USD 30 Tn by 2047). o Rising disposal incomes with increase in per capita GDP (~USD 4,000 by 2030). • Clean energy transition o Decarbonization efforts aiming to reduce GDP emission intensity by 33-35% from 2005 levels. o India aims for 500 GW of RE installed capacity by 2030 from the current 197 GW and 90% of its energy requirements from RE in 2047. o 30% of all vehicle sales to be electric by 2030 along with growing EV charging infrastructure. o Renewable, EV and associated infrastructure are expected to contribute ~16% in 2030 and ~25% in 2047. 5.2. Major copper consuming sectors outlook • Building construction sector The construction sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~17% in the short term (2030) and ~6% in the long term (2047). The government’s push for infrastructure through initiatives such as the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) and the Smart City Mission is expected to drive growth. 120 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sEconomic factors: o Housing complex and commercial constructions (warehousing and storage facilities) demanding higher safety and a ‘green’ source of energy. o Increased focus on infrastructure and growth in private investment. o Availability of finance and repatriation of NRIs and HNIs enable the purchase/ construction of better-quality buildings (smart buildings). o Continued public investment in infrastructure development and smart cities. o Increased collaboration through the PPP model and rising private investments. Policy/regulatory impact: o Smart City Mission: sustainable and inclusive cities and application of smart solutions. o PMAY: credit-linked subsidy scheme for affordable housing. o Real Estate Investment Trust: to invest in commercial real estate. o 100% FDI in construction development. o Partnership for Energy Efficiency in Buildings (PEEB): promoting sustainable building design and construction. Demographic factors: o Growing population and a higher proportion of young, working people and nuclear families. o Rapid urbanization in tier-2 cities, rising income, and easy credit leading to a real-estate push. o Higher household income and a better standard of living. Other factors: o Energy efficient and environment friendly construction such as Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certified green buildings. o Smaller and mid-sized developers impacted by reforms such as Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, GST, etc. increasing the share of larger developers. 121 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Infrastructure sector Renewable power generation & storage capacities, distribution network & charging infrastructure and railway route electrification will witness rapid growth within the infrastructure sector. Infrastructure is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~12% in short-term (2030) and ~7% in long-term (2047). Economic factors: o Rise in economic activity and growth in international trade. o India emerging as a manufacturing hub will drive demand for infrastructure through logistics and warehousing needs. o Availability of infrastructure finance opportunities and growing PPP. o Technology innovation and associated demand for efficient and environment-friendly infrastructure. Policy/regulatory impact: o Pradhan Mantri Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana, Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gram Jyoti Yojana, Vision ‘24x7 Power for All’, National Mission on Advanced Ultra Supercritical Technology. o Net Zero by 2070: National Wind-Solar Hybrid Policy, National Offshore Wind Energy Policy, National Solar Mission, Rooftop Solar Programme. o Renewable Purchase Obligation: to promote renewable energy. o Make in India, Atmanirbhar Bharat (PLI Schemes). Demographic factors: o Growing population and increasing proportion of young, working population. o Rising urbanization and domestic migration. o Growing per capita income and rising standard of living will lead to demand for high- quality infrastructure. o Railway route electrification, metro rail and high-speed rail projects. o Greater consumer awareness and demand for green infrastructure. 122 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sOther factors: o Focus on clean energy (solar and wind) – grid connected solar roof top and wind-solar PV hybrid systems. o Setting up of UMPP with super-critical technology. o Construction of smart grids and improving energy storage facilities. o Installation of charging infrastructure to enable faster adoption of EV. • Industrial sector Increasing demand for new plants and machineries due to growing industrialization will help the industrial sector to grow at a CAGR of ~7% in short-term (2030) and ~5% in long-term (2047). Economic factors: o Overall economic growth and growth of domestic manufacturing. o Expanding private investment and export driven expansion of industries/manufacturing and plants and machinery. o Focus on energy efficiency as well as incorporation on carbon tax policy. o Increase in private final consumption and resulting demand for more and better goods (which may be serviced by domestic industries). Policy/regulatory impact: o National Manufacturing Policy: enabling policy framework and providing incentives for infrastructure development on PPP basis. o National Capital Goods Policy: enabling ecosystem for capital goods growth and ensuring sustained incentive for domestic manufacturers. o Make in India, Atmanirbhar Bharat (incl. PLI schemes), Start-up India, etc. o Govt. policies and investment support to build manufacturing hubs. o 100% FDI approved in the manufacturing and engineering sectors. 123 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sDemographic factors: o Rising urbanization and resulting demand for products. o Growing population and increasing proportion of young, working population. o Growing income and rising standard of living reflected in demand for goods. o Adoption of automation along with technologies such as IOT, Big data, AI/ML to promote “Smart Manufacturing”. Other factors: o India is emerging as an R&D centre for various industries. o Technological partnerships between companies to enhance capabilities and sustain market uncertainties. o Growth in Merger & Acquisition activity in the industry. o Transportation sector – EV market is expected to grow rapidly. • Transportation sector Focused policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions to drive growth of EV within transportation sector, expected to grow at a CAGR of ~18% in short-term (2030) and ~11% in long-term (2047). Economic factors: o Rising income and standard of living. o Availability of credit and financial options. o Strong export demand for auto components and small cars from India. o Heavy investments in charging infra and manufacturing & value chain development. Policy/regulatory impact: o National Electric Mobility Mission Plan, PM E-drive for promoting EVs. o Make in India, PLI scheme: promotion of local manufacturing. o National Automotive Testing and R&D Infrastructure Project. 124 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine so National rail plan, Metro rail policy, schemes related to special purpose & high capacity wagons. o Vehicle Scrappage Policy: Govt. funded programme to replace old vehicles. Demographic factors: o Growing population and increasing proportion of young, working population. o Growth in tourism (domestic and foreign) and greater consumer awareness and demand for green transport. o Rising urbanization in tier-2 cities to introduce metro linkages. o More investment towards the development of EV infrastructure and railways rolling stock production. Other factors: o Deterrent for growth of ICE vehicles and stricter compliance for automakers w.r.t Carbon emission (BS-VI). o Increased collaboration through PPP models and investments in setting up R&D operations & laboratories in India. o Increased indigenization of global OEMs and the emergence of designing and manufacturing base in India. • Consumer durables sector The rise in organized retail with convenient and easier financing and credit options will drive the consumer durable sector and is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~6% in short-term (2030) and ~7% in long-term (2047). Economic factors: o Organized retail including the growth of digital economy/ e-commerce. o Easy consumer credit. o Growth in rentals of consumer durables particularly in urban areas. o Growing market for luxury and affordable luxury brands and growth in exports. 125 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine so Demand for efficient and environment-friendly alternatives. Policy/regulatory impact: o Quality and energy efficiency standards such as BEE star rating, BIS testing and certification, Indian Cooling Action Plan (ICAP), etc. o Atmanirbhar Bharat, Make in India, Production linked incentive (PLI) scheme, National Policy on Electronics, Scheme for Promotion of Manufacturing of Electric Components and Semi-Conductors: Govt. policies on promoting domestic manufacturing and providing financial incentives. o Focus on Foreign Investment Policy, Foreign Trade Policy. Demographic factors: o Growth in home appliances and electronics items due to increase in urban, semi-urban and rural household. o Growing working population and higher disposable income. o Electrification & availability of reliable power and demographic shift. o Generational preferences shape product design and marketing strategies. Other factors: o Higher energy efficient and eco-friendly large appliances. o Technological advancements and interventions. o Smart Mobile phones, PCs & Laptops as more focus due to online education and digitalization. o Focus on Energy savings and decarbonization. • Diverse sector Increasing adoption of Solar Pumps and various other products like cartridges & gun heads, chemical, musical instruments, marine applications, brazing & welding products, etc. will drive the growth of diverse sector at a CAGR of 4% in the long-term. 126 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sEconomic factors: o Highly price sensitive market; subsidy and income opportunity put Solar Pumps at competitive advantage. o Rising private consumption expenditure and share of agricultural product in this expenditure. o Availability of credit and financial options. o Growth of food processing industry and expand its exports. Policy/regulatory impact: o Subsidies upto 80 to 90 percent for buying solar panels, offered as cash back to purchasers. o Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY). o National Food Security Mission (NFSM). o PM-KUSUM Scheme, Krishi Vikas Yojana. Demographic factors: o Large and growing population. o Urbanization, growth of nuclear families, and increasing proportion of young, working population results in demand for semi-processed/processed food. o Rising disposable income of rural and urban households. o Changing lifestyle and increasing expenditure on healthy and nutritious foods. Other factors: o Growth in India’s agriculture sector and increased mechanization. o Changing technology and innovation. o R&D in the agriculture sector in general and irrigation in particular. 127 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s5.3. Potential supply scenario in 2030 and Amrit Kaal India needs to add ~1 MT of refining capacity every five years to meet the projected demand of about 10 MT. In addition to enhancing mining production, investing in, or acquiring foreign copper assets and enhancing functional reserve will be crucial for supply chain resiliency. Figure 13 Future copper supply scenario28 Short term (2030) scenario About 95% of India's concentrate demand is projected to be met through imports. Enhancing domestic mining capacity by reopening closed mines, expanding existing ones, and bringing auctioned blocks into production will boost domestic production. Additionally, India should consider strengthening offtake agreements with copper-rich nations such as Chile, Peru, and Australia, ensuring a reliable and consistent supply. With the 0% import duty on concentrates, India has a strategic opportunity to diversify sourcing by exploring partnerships with African countries. 28 Assumptions: improvement in process efficiency from ~80% to ~90%, MIC to conc. ratio 4, EOL is around 20 years, focus will be on minimizing imports of unrefined & refined copper and Semis/FGs in long run, whereas foreign assets can be acquired with downstream integration 128 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 27 Domestic mine-wise production FY30 (P) Potential Ore Potential MIC Potential Concentrate State Mines Production Production (KT) Production (KT) (KT) Rajasthan, Madhya KCC, MCP, 9,600 79.49 317.95 Pradesh, ICC (HCL) Jharkhand Thanewasana Maharashtra 35 0.29 1.16 (Vedanta)* Total 9,635 79.78 319.11 Assumption: Ore Grade 0.9%, Recovery 92%, MIC:Conc. 1:4 *Thanewasana auctioned in 2019 is expected to be operationalized in 2030 About 1.5 MT of additional refining capacity is expected to be added by FY30 compared to FY23 levels, mostly from Adani’s 1,000 KT copper unit in Mundra. The increasing addition of new capacities in India is expected to produce 1.6 - 2 MT of refined copper in 2030. Table 28 Projection of domestic refined copper production FY30 (P) Potential Domestic Capacity Sl. No. Company Production (KT) @ 80% (KT) utilization 1 Adani 1,000 800 2 Hindalco 500 400 3 Sterlite 216 173 4 Hindalco (secondary refinery) 50 40 5 Capacity addition 450 360 6 Total 2,216 1,773 129 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sCurrently, almost all scrap undergoes direct melting to form Semis/FGs. Going forward, scrap utilization in secondary refining is expected to reach 5%, while 95% of scrap is estimated to be directly melted to form Semis/FGs. Domestic scrap availability is projected to be 430 - 530 KT29, leaving India import dependent on copper cathodes and scrap for 0.45 – 0.55 MT of copper. Additionally, imposing restrictions on the export of high-grade copper scrap could help boost the secondary copper industry and prevents the loss of nation’s strategic raw material. Long-term (2047) Scenario HCL has a goal to mine 20.2 MT of copper ore in the long term subjected to feasibility and availability of copper resources. Additionally, production of 1 MT of copper ore is expected to be from auctioned & upcoming mines in 2047, leaving India to rely on imports for more than 95% of its ore requirements. Graph 37 Domestic copper ore production (MT) projected snapshot 0.70 21.23 20.20 0.33 HCL Mines Auctioned Mines Upcoming Mines FY47 Mines Prod. 29 India consumed approximately 680 KT of copper in 2010, assuming that about 70% will reach EoL 130 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sTable 29 Potential ore production of auctioned blocks in FY47 State Complex Projected Ore Production (tonnes) Madhya Pradesh Shitalpani Copper Block 13,500 Maharashtra Thanewasana 263,250 Maharashtra GhanpurMudholi (West) 7,500 Maharashtra Minzhari Copper Block 42,375 Total 326,625 India's total copper concentrate demand stands at ~15 MT, while domestic production is projected to meet only 4.6% of the total requirement. This clearly indicates that auctioning small mines is not making a significant impact on the nation’s mineral production leaving India with a substantial estimated concentrate demand gap of ~11.6 MT. Table 30 Potential ore production from upcoming blocks in FY47 Potential Projected Ore State Block mineable Production (tonnes) Reserve (MT) Deravad-Chargarhhia_Udaipur- Rajasthan 0.5 22,500 G4_Cu-Au Rajasthan Dhanota_block_G3 block 2.15 96,750 Madhya Pradesh Bagwari-Sukwari_G4 block 1 45,000 Jharkhand Thakurdicharakmara 0.9 40,500 Jharkhand Musabani-Dumriya-Maheshpur 2.25 101,250 Madhya Pradesh Kubri Kochipur block 3 135,000 Maharashtra Govindpur 0.3 13,500 Madhya Pradesh Mahakoshal 0.3 13,500 Jharkhand Thakurdih 3.25 146,250 Madhya Pradesh Sitapur 1.8 81,000 Total 15 695,250 To bridge this gap, enhancing domestic mining, signing offtake agreements with international copper miners, investing in or acquiring copper mines and mining companies, and diversifying copper concentrate supply will be crucial. 131 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 38 Copper concentrate scenario in FY47(P) (KT) 11,564 15,157 Strategic acquisition of foreign assets to fulfill the demand 2,891 669 34 Auctioned Conc. Demand Gap + Upcoming Mines Existing Mines Conc. From aboard… FY47 Conc. Demand Indian copper units should establish offtake agreements for a certain period with miners in copper-rich regions such as Australia, Chile, and Peru to ensure consistent and reliable access to copper concentrate supplies, e.g., GWM, China signed a 5-year offtake agreement with Pilbara Minerals for Lithium. In addition to offtake agreements, asset acquisition strategies should be established to secure supply. These should include bilateral investment funds in resource-rich countries, targeted bank loans or the acquisition of high-debt companies with promising assets, early investments in startups with high-potential mineral assets, and mandating clear critical asset acquisition targets for PSUs, backed by strong financial support. To meet the projected demand of copper cathodes India needs to add approximately 1 MT of smelting and refining capacity every five years to meet the projected copper demand. Copper cathode supply is expected to reach 4.6 -5.6 MT. 132 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGraph 39 Domestic refined copper capacity projections FY47(P) (KT) 1500 5716 1000 1000 2216 FY30 Capacity Capacity addition Capacity addition Capacity addition Total Capacity b/w FY30 -35 b/w FY35 -40 b/w FY40 -47 In terms of scrap 80% of Scrap is estimated to be directly melted to form Semis/FGs. Domestic scrap supply is estimated to be ~2 – 2.4 MT.30 Mandating high energy-efficient appliances in India by increasing the minimum threshold of BEE standard can help secure scrap supply for the future. The copper demand gap of 1.8–2.2 MT is expected to be met through imports of refined copper or scrap. To achieve this, India could leverage its investments by signing offtake agreements with companies where it has made investments through targeted bank loans. Additionally, refined copper imports are expected to come from Japan, Russia, the DRC, Chile, and Zambia. Indonesia and Middle Eastern countries, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are also anticipated to develop significant copper refining capacities, creating further opportunities for refined copper imports. For scrap imports, Middle Eastern countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, along with developing nations in Africa and Latin America, could be viable sources. This is particularly relevant as developed countries such as the US, EU, Japan, and the UK are expected to export very limited scrap in the future due to their focus on domestic scrap utilization. 30 70% copper consumed in 2027 is estimated to reach EoL 133 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s6. STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION 134 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s6. S takeholder Consultation Stakeholders in India's copper sector face economic, environmental, social, and regulatory challenges. Miners • Complex and lengthy mineral auction process: Delays and uncertainties in mineral auctions hinder timely exploration and development of mining projects, impacting industry growth and investment. • Limited high-grade copper reserves: Scarcity of high-grade copper reserves poses challenges in maintaining production efficiency and meeting quality standards in mining operations. • Absence of contiguous mining legislation: The absence of contiguous mining legislation to incentivize extraction of deep-seated minerals such as copper. • Limited Infrastructure in remote mining regions: The lack of infrastructure in remote mining regions impedes operational efficiency and increases project costs, posing logistical challenges for transportation and resource extraction. • Stringent environmental regulations: Copper miners are facing challenges due to strict ESG regulations, including high compliance costs, environmental sustainability pressures, and social responsibility demands. • Shortage of skilled workforce: Lack of trained workforce hindering mining operations, adoption of digital solutions and safety Smelters & Refineries • Navigating the regulatory landscape is challenging: Adhering the regulatory landscape for capital projects is a lengthy process, requiring multiple permits such as EC, CTE, CTO and other licenses & clearances for power, water, land use, fire safety, etc. 135 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Limited domestic availability of raw materials: Domestic copper smelters rely on imports to meet industrial demand and sustain production, making them vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by export bans, political instability, and social unrest in copper rich nations. • Lack of incentive: No capital or production-linked incentive for setting up smelters, refiners, and fabricators. • High GST on copper concentrates: The 18% GST on copper concentrates places them in a tax bracket just below luxury goods, significantly impacting the cost structure and competitiveness of the copper smelting industry in India. • Intense competition from imported refined copper: The increasing imports of refined copper into India at zero duty under FTAs intensify competition for local producers. • Lack of Availability of Processing Technology: The lack of domestic mid-stream processing technology providers for smelters & refiners of copper in India remains an area of concern. Secondary copper producers • Absence of Standardized Guidelines for using Copper Scrap: Lack of BIS standards that can determine the technical varieties of copper scrap that can be used as a complementary raw material. • Infrastructure and Technology: Insufficient infrastructure and outdated recycling technologies are impacting the efficiency of copper recycling operations. End user • High copper prices: Global price fluctuations and import dependence led to higher prices for finished products. • Limited availability of high-quality copper: Users requiring specific grades might face shortages. 136 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s• Quality & standards: Ensuring the quality and adherence to international standards of copper products is crucial for end-users. Local communities • Environmental concerns: Adverse impact on water, air, and land quality from mining activities, also proper disposal, and management of waste, such as tailings, pose environmental challenges. • Livelihood displacement: Resettlement and rehabilitation of communities affected by mining projects can be inadequate. • Limited benefits sharing: Communities may not see tangible benefits from mining operations in their area. • Health & safety concerns: Mining and processing activities pose potential health and safety risks for workers, addressing these concerns is crucial for maintaining a safe working environment. Government • Balancing competing interests: Striking a balance between promoting production, protecting the environment, ensuring compliance & safety regulations, and protecting community well-being. • Supply chain volatility: About 90% copper primary raw materials are being imported and the number is expected to go up to 95% by 2030. Government needs to focus on securing supply chain and focus on price control mechanisms. • Attracting investments: Creating a conducive environment to attract domestic and foreign investors in the sector while managing the financial challenges. • Developing a skilled workforce: Addressing the skilled workforce shortage requires coordinated efforts from government and industry. 137 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s7. NAVIGATING THE WAY FORWARD IN THE SECTOR 138 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s7. N avigating The Way Forward In The Sector India's copper sector faces multiple challenges that impede its self-sufficiency and growth. Despite an estimated 12.2 MT of copper resources, only 18% are classified as reserves, highlighting limited domestically available raw materials. Additionally, tightening copper supplies from key exporters like Indonesia and Panama have reduced India’s sourcing options. Countries such as Chile and Peru have long-term commitments with global players like Japan and China. Further compounding these issues, copper scrap utilization in Indian refineries remains low due to inadequate technological capabilities, leading to underperformance in recycling and secondary production. Direct melting of copper is predominant in India, resulting in quality standards that lag behind global benchmarks. These challenges underscore the urgent need for strategic interventions to support the copper sector's resilience and growth. 7.1. Emphasizing on exploration activities India’s copper reserves, totaling only 2 MT, are significantly lower than those of Chile (190 million tonnes) and Peru (120 million tonnes). This disparity underscores the urgent need to boost exploration efforts within the country. The entire country has been mapped on 1:50,000 scale through which GSI has been able to comprehensively identify all the possible non-bulk minerals including copper with surface manifestation. Based on geological mapping, known mineral belts and exploration data acquired, GSI had demarcated ~6.88 lakh sq.km. area which is potential for such mineralization and GSI has prioritized geochemical and geophysical mapping over this area. out of 6.88 lakh sq.km. area, ~40% is not fit for reconnaissance stage mineral exploration (G4 stage) due to presence of major water bodies, river channel, eco-sensitive zones, wildlife sanctuaries and dense reserve forest area and non-fertile areas. Therefore, actual OGP area available for reconnaissance stage mineral exploration is ~4.13 lakh sq.km. out of which ~2.13 lakh sq.km. area has already been covered through reconnaissance stage mineral exploration, which accounts for ~30% of the total OGP area. ~2.0 lakh sq.km. area is yet to be covered. 139 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sShort-Term (2030) Strategic Focus Areas Efforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Propose NMET funding for brownfield exploration to augment geological copper resource Encourage more private exploration agencies by making preliminary prospecting data (G4) available on a public platform MinEX and MINEDEX portal of Australia, MEDD and Earthscape portal of Canada provide baseline & specific information 1. Promotion regarding mineral findings of domestic Consider integrating IMIC exploration (following the JORC template) activities alongside UNFC to enhance the credibility and attract investment Adoption of digital technologies AI/ML-based prospecting engine (Proprietary technology from KoBold Metals being used in Zambian copper belt) Geological mapping using hyperspectral data and ML models (conducted by ISRO in eastern part of the Chhatarpur district of MP), etc. Leverage KABIL for conducting 2. feasibility study for identifying Establishment appropriate copper block for of further prospecting and partnership conducting exploration activities with copper- in Chile, Peru, Australia, rich countries Mongolia and other countries for investing KABIL is working in Argentina for in exploration a lithium asset in CAMYEM 140 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sLong-Term (2047) Strategic Focus Areas Efforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Under the Samudrayaan mission, expedite deep sea exploration in the Central Indian Ocean Basin (CIOB) for the mining of 1. Focus on polymetallic nodules (PMN) deep sea exploration India’s Matsya6000 having the for capability of carrying out mining sustainable up to a depth of 6000 mt is still future under development phase – China (Kaituo2) and Japan (Patania II) developed offshore mining vehicle 7.2. Enhancing supply chain resiliency To ensure a resilient copper supply chain, India must address its heavy reliance on imported copper concentrate, as of now over 90% of its needs are met through imports, with about 66% sourced from just three countries. As domestic processing capacity expands, this dependency is set to rise, making India vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, particularly with the growing global focus on resource nationalism. Thus, creating an urgency for foreign asset acquisition. For example, China which has insufficient domestic reserves has invested approximately US $ 16 billion since 2010 in acquiring overseas copper assets, particularly in Africa and other regions, underscoring the importance of securing resources abroad. 141 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sShort-Term (2030) Strategic Focus Areas Efforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Fastrack the re-opening of the closed mines (Rakha, Kendadih, Chandmari) through revenue sharing MDO model Facilitate duty free import for high-capacity mining and beneficiation equipment (LPDT, 1. Domestic LHD, Semi-automatic Production upstream Drill Rigs, Crusher components, capacity etc.) towards augmenting augmentation production from underground mines by leveraging latest mining operational technologies Pre-embedded in-principle statutory clearances for mining lease grant to reduce gestation period from auction to operationalization of mines Review offtake agreements with other countries to reduce dependency on the existing major three importing countries 2. Enhancing (Chile, Indonesia, Peru) to Supply navigate potential export ban on Security and copper concentrate Overseas Investment Introduce dedicated copper chapter in FTA with countries like Chile, Peru for securing fixed quantity of copper concentrate 142 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sEfforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Formulate G2G facilitation to encourage Indian PSUs and private companies to establish partnerships with copper-rich countries, promoting strategic investments in exploration and mining assets abroad Facilitate scheme for PPP model through a simplified 3. Enhancing approval procedure, where Supply Govt. owning the rights in Security and foreign countries and operation Overseas by Indian privet sector Investment Facilitate JVs between overseas mining companies and domestic PSU and private producers at G2G level Provide sovereign guarantee to private & public companies in protecting overseas assets, whereas government could impose levies for protection Long-Term (2047) Strategic Focus Areas Efforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Promote investment by foreign companies such as Codelco, BHP to establish their smelters, 1. FDIs in refineries, other downstream Copper sector industries in India, with government PSUs investing in their overseas projects in return 143 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sEfforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Cost to Required to implement implement Implement Facilitate production-based financing (companies can secure cash by selling rights to receive 2. future production from their Introduction assets), private equity financing of alternate etc. to enable mine owners to financing secure funds for mine mechanism development and setting up mining and beneficiation facilities 7.3. Imagining India as a Processing Hub with downstream integration (smelting & refining and fabrication) Since FY19, India has been a net importer of copper cathode, which intensified after operations at Vedanta’s Thoothukudi smelter stopped in May 2018. The capital-intensive nature of the industry, requiring approximately ₹10,000 crore for a 0.5 MT facility, and stringent regulatory challenges further hinder capacity expansion. 144 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sShort-Term (2030) Strategic Focus Areas Efforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Offer financial support to build 4-5 MTPA of new smelting and refining capacity in long-run 1. Ensuring Capital investment subsidy to support in offset high capital costs building competitive Customs duty exemption: waive domestic duties on imported plant & copper machineries smelting and refining Offer operating subsidy or facility and exemptions (e.g., energy rebates generating on electricity duty) employment GST reduction: implement GST reduced rates from 18% to 12% for the initial years of operations Adjust duty structures to enhance profitability across the value chain without reducing government revenue 2. Ensuring the viability Review existing FTAs (ASEAN, of domestic the UAE, Japan) and avoid copper units importing of refined copper against products (cathodes, rods, wires) expected and other downstream products tight mining (tubes, copper foils, etc.) in new supplies and FTAs being negotiated and revise declining custom duty on refined copper TC/RC and semis/downstream products (7.5% and 10-12% respectively) to make the industry more resilient to low TC/RC cycles 145 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sEfforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Promoting sustainability through the utilization of copper smelter by- products, specifically copper slag Use of copper slag in building and construction within a designated radius around smelters, akin to the fly 3. Define ash guidelines by-product strategy In line with other major economies for (Japan, China), amend cement sustainable manufacturing standards for practices acknowledging copper slag as a raw to material to produce Portland slag effectively cement manage slag and Several studies on producing DRI from emissions copper slag in China Provide substantial subsidies or grants to companies that invest in R&D for advanced metallurgical processes with a priority to projects that focus on reducing environmental impact Allocate dedicated funds for R&D activities in processing technologies under various national innovation foundations, focusing on creating product development technologies that are adaptable to India’s unique mineralogical challenges 4. Driving International collaborations to Innovation encourage partnerships with countries in the having advanced processing Copper technologies with seamless Midstream technology transfer agreements, joint Industry research projects and the establishment of pilot plants in India Developed by Jetti resources, the technology of leaching low-grade primary sulphide ores using catalyst- based system being used at 22 active project sites 146 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sLong-Term (2047) Strategic Focus Areas Efforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Training and capacity building: 1. Driving establish Centres of Excellence Innovation in (COE) and launch national the Copper specialized programs across Midstream copper value chain aimed at Industry developing highly skilled workforce 7.4. Streamlining & promoting responsible recycling Recycling/remelting in India is dominated by unorganized sector. India lacks specific guidelines for copper scrap quality to improve dependency on scrap, unlike China's stringent policies. Heavily dependent on imports of copper concentrate due to weak domestic resource base, recycling is going to play a major role in meeting the demand. Short-Term (2030) Strategic Focus Areas Efforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Provide financial support 1. Enhancing towards building of scrap Sustainability processing facilities including through Scrap efficient segregation Utilization mechanisms 147 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sEfforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Boost secondary refining by enforcing regulations to ensure refining of low-grade scrap Establish a dedicated governing body to monitor and ensure compliance with scrap utilization mandate, levy penalties to non- compliant primary refineries to ensure sustainability Introduce Green Fence Policy to restrict dumping of low-grade scrap Classify imported and domestic scrap and introduce HSN codes for scrap items to track the copper content in end-products 1. Enhancing Sustainability Classify imported and domestic through Scrap scrap in-line with global Utilization classification (ISRI) to facilitate effective recycling and efficient material recovery Develop scrap recycling standards and mandate responsible recycling for seamless supply of imported scrap Introduce policy for export ban of high-grade copper related scrap to improve the availability 2. Reviewing of domestic copper scrap of scrap trade policies Special trade agreements with developed countries such USA, EU, and Japan to secure scrap supply 148 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sLong-Term (2047) Strategic Focus Areas Efforts Potential ROI Time Description Cost to Financial Social Required to implement Benefit Impact Implement Introduce certification for low- carbon copper products as well as incentivization to encourage 1. Focus on adoption of advanced initiatives for technologies, greener practices reducing carbon Provide grants and funding for footprint R&D in low-carbon copper production methods, including carbon capture and storage 149 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s8. SUGGESTED CONSTITUTION OF TASKFORCES TO DRIVE THE GROWTH OF DOMESTIC COPPER INDUSTRY 150 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s8. S uggested constitution of taskforces to drive the growth of domestic copper industry Representatives from various organizations need to step forward and form a taskforce or action committee to support strategic objectives aimed at elevating the domestic copper sector. Table 31 Suggested constitution of taskforces Domestic Excellence Foreign Assets & Trade Domestic Excellence Overall Scrap (Upstream) Agreement (Mid-Downstream) Management Chair – MoM Chair – MoEA Chair – MoM Chair – NITI Aayog Representatives of Representatives of Representatives MoM, Representatives of NITI MoM, MOEF&CC, NITI MoM, NITI Aayog, MoEA, ISO/BSI, BEE, Aayog, DPIIT Aayog, IBM, NMET DGFT, DGFT Representatives of Representatives of HCL, MRAI, HCL, IPCPA, ICA, Representatives of GSI, IPCPA, ICA, ICDC, FIMI, ICDC, ASSOCHAM, Representatives of GSI, MECL, KABIL, HCL and EEPC India, IEEMA, academic institutions & MECL, HCL, MEAI other PSUs IndoAsia Copper and research institutes and other relevant agencies other relevant organization Representatives of Representatives from Representatives from Representatives of IPCPA, ICA, MRAI, DST, CSIR, pioneer integrated copper recycling companies, ASSOCHAM and other academic institutions players, ICA end-use manufacturers relevant bodies and research institutes Representatives from relevant International and Indian research Support from MoC&I organisations, educational institutes Relevant SMEs and Industry experts Relevant Knowledge Partner for value addition and report compilation 151 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sObjectives and mandates of Taskforce committees A. Domestic Excellence (Upstream) Taskforce Facilitating the acceleration of greenfield and brownfield exploration to enhance domestic copper concentrate production (5-7%) in alignment with growing copper demand. Key activities Stakeholders ▪ Facilitate fund allocation from NMET to expedite exploration programmes. MoM, MOEF&CC, ▪ Facilitate the adoption of the latest technologies/equipment for NITI Aayog, IBM, domestic miners through reduced import duties and additional NMET, GSI, MECL, support measures. HCL, MEAI, ▪ Establish dedicated R&D centres to improve copper ore integrated copper beneficiation techniques. players, relevant ▪ Plan for new copper mining projects and facilitate the re-opening research of viable closed mines. organisations, ▪ Chalk out detailed action plans to amend various rules and relevant SMEs regulations at the central and state levels for faster operationalization of mines. B. Foreign Assets & Trade Agreement Taskforce Facilitate securing ~6 MT of concentrate supply by 2030 and 14.5 MT by 2047 and chalk out detailed activity plan for acquiring & protecting foreign copper assets. Key activities Stakeholders MoEA, MoM, NITI ▪ Promote investment of Indian companies to acquire or invest in Aayog, DGFT, HCL, overseas copper mining assets. IPCPA, ICA, MRAI, 152 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sKey activities Stakeholders ▪ Negotiate long-term trade agreements with copper-rich countries IndoAsia Copper, to ensure stable supply. ASSOCHAM, ▪ Collaborate with countries in the Mineral Security Partnership relevant SMEs (MSP) for access to copper resources. ▪ Secure equity stakes in copper mines abroad through partnerships with local governments. ▪ Collaborate with foreign research institutions for advanced copper processing technologies. C. Domestic Excellence (Mid-Downstream) Taskforce Provide financial impetus for investment to add 1 MT smelting and refining capacity in every 5 years and promote indigenous processing technology and sustainability across value chain. Key activities Stakeholders ▪ Identify financial incentives to promote capacity addition across MoM, NITI Aayog, the value chain. CSIR, academic and ▪ Establish a robust monitoring framework to track performance research institutes, and ensure compliance with quality and environmental standards. HCL, IPCPA, ICA, ▪ Monitor the performance of primary copper players and facilitate ICDC, MoEF&CC, the adoption of latest technologies. CPCB, NERI, FIMI, ▪ Frame by-product strategy with monitoring governance EEPC India, IEEMA, mechanism. IndoAsia Copper, ▪ Constitute expert committee and chalk out a detailed plan for the relevant SMEs operationalization of closed smelting and refining facilities. 153 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s▪ Leverage national innovation initiatives for dedicated R&D fund allocation and provide substantial subsidies or grants towards R&D activities. ▪ Frame a strategy for maintaining and increasing copper share in end-use products towards inducing demand for greater future supply. D. Overall Scrap Management Taskforce Facilitate policy support for increasing domestic availability of scrap, classification of scrap for effective utilization and increasing secondary refinery up to 20% in the long run. Key Activities Stakeholders ▪ Develop a national framework for copper scrap grading based on purity levels, alloy composition and contamination thresholds. ▪ Provide policy and financial support for setting up systematic scrap collection and segregation infrastructure. ▪ Draft “Green Fence Policy” aimed to restrict the import of MoEA, RAI, HCL, contaminated and low-quality recycled materials and establish IPCPA, ICA, ICDC, scrap classification and standards. MRAI, IPCPA, ▪ Promote importing of only high-grade scrap, till the development ASSOCHAM, of right recycling facilities. academic and ▪ Introduce export restrictions on high-grade copper scrap to research institutes, retain valuable secondary raw materials within the domestic relevant SMEs market. ▪ Support the adoption of cutting-edge separation and refining technologies to maximize recovery rates. ▪ Encourage industry-academia collaborations for research on improving scrap processing efficiency. 154 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s9. CONCLUSION 155 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s9. C onclusion India’s refined copper consumption is projected to grow by 5 - 6X in the long term (2047), underscoring the necessity for strategic planning and strategic initiatives to mitigate supply chain disruption and demand-supply gap. Domestic Production and Import Dependency Currently, HCL is the only domestic copper miner in India. However, with new copper blocks being auctioned, long-term domestic copper ore production is projected to reach about 21 MT, meeting only 4.6% of domestic concentrate demand. This limited domestic supply underscores India’s heavy reliance on copper concentrate imports, making the nation vulnerable to external market fluctuations. Additionally, growing challenges such as resource nationalism, geopolitical tensions, declining ore grades, and a persistent lack of investment are likely to disrupt the global copper trade dynamic. These issues could leave India with few viable options to source copper, even from major exporters like Australia, Chile, Peru, and Zambia. Strategic Actions The next few decades hold great potential for substantial growth within the Indian copper sector. To lay a strong foundation for a brighter and more resilient future, the industry should focus on several key areas. First, enhancing exploration activities will be crucial in expanding geological resources, allowing India to tap into its domestic potential more effectively. Additionally, adopting emerging technologies can boost mine productivity in existing operations. Alongside this, acquiring or investing in foreign assets is essential to secure a long-term copper supply, helping India mitigate its heavy reliance on imports of primary raw material. Strengthening relationships with copper- rich nations such as Australia, Chile, and Peru will also be critical to ensuring a steady copper concentrate supply. Establishing downstream integrated processing hubs will address the growing domestic demand while creating new export opportunities for India. Beyond expanding domestic processing 156 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine scapacities, India should also consider investing in or establishing smelters and refineries abroad. This approach would secure a steady supply chain, enabling it to better manage supply disruptions arising due to resource nationalism and export ban of copper raw materials. Moreover, a streamlined domestic scrap market could encourage recycling, securing secondary copper supplies and promoting a circular economy within the sector. To sustain this progress, building a skilled workforce and developing R&D centers focused on innovation will be essential. Finally, the drafting of regulatory policies and schemes that facilitate a seamless supply chain, stimulate demand, and promote sustainable development will play a vital role in the sector's evolution, ensuring long-term growth and stability. 157 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sGlossary Abbreviations Full forms ~ Approximately AI Artificial intelligence ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASSOCHAM Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India BCD Basic customs duty BEE Bureau of Energy Efficiency BESS Battery Energy Storage System BIS Bureau of Indian Standards BRI Belt and Road Initiative BS Bharat stage emissions standards BSI British Standards Institution BT Billion tonnes CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CEPA Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement CL Composite licence CO2 Carbon di-oxide CoE Centres of Excellence Conc Concentrate CSIR Council of Scientific and Industrial Research CTE Consent to Establish CTO Consent to Operate Cu Copper DGFT Directorate General of Foreign Trade DOE Department of Energy DPIIT Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade DRC Democratic Republic of Congo DRI Direct reduced iron DST Department of Science and Technology 158 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sEC Environmental Clearance ECTA Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement EEPC India Engineering Export Promotion Council of India EL Exploration Licence EoL End-of-Life EPR Extended Producer Responsibility ESG Environmental, Social, and Governance EU European Union EV Electric Vehicle FAME Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles in India FDI Foreign direct investment FG Finished goods FTA Free Trade Agreement FY Financial Year G2G Government to Government GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income GoI Government of India GSI Geological Survey of India GST Goods and Services Tax GVA Gross value added GW Giga Watt GWH Giga Watt Hour HCL Hindustan Copper Limited HNIs High Net Worth Individuals HSN Harmonized System of Nomenclature IBM Indian Bureau of Mines ICA Internal Copper Association ICA International Copper Association ICAP Indian Cooling Action Plan ICC Indian Copper Complex 159 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sICDC Indian Copper Development Centre ICE Internal Combustion Engine IEA International Energy Agency IEEMA Indian Electrical and Electronics Manufacturers' Association IMIC Indian Mineral Industry Code IPCPA Indian Primary Copper Producers Association ISO International Organization for Standardization ISRI Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JETRO Japan External Trade Organization JORC Joint Ore Reserve Committee JS Joint Secretary JV Joint Venture KABIL Khanij Bidesh India Limited KCC Khetri Copper Complex KT Kilo Tonne KTPA Kilo Tonne Per Annum LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Li Lithium LME London Metal Exchange M&A Mergers and Acquisitions MCP Malanjkhand Copper Project MEAI Mining Engineers' Association of India MECL Mineral Exploration and Consultancy Limited MEE China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry MFN Most Favoured Nation MIC Metal in Concentrate ML Machine Learning MMDR Mines and Minerals Development and Regulation MMDR Act Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act 160 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sMoCI Ministry of Commerce and Industry MoEA Ministry of External Affairs MoEF&CC Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change MoM Ministry of Mines MoR Ministry of Railways MoRTH Ministry of Road Transport and Highways MoU Memorandum of Understanding MP Madhya Pradesh MRAI Material Recycling Association of India MRR Ministry of Ecology & Environment MT Million Tonne MTPA Million Tonne Per Annum NCCBM National Council for Cement and Building Materials NDRC National Development and Reform Commission NFMIMS Non-Ferrous Metal Import Monitoring System NFSM National Food Security Mission NMET National Mineral Exploration Trust NRI Non-resident Indians OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OEM Original equipment manufacturers OGP Obvious Geological Potential PEEB Partnership for Energy Efficiency in Buildings PGE Platinum Group Elements PLI Product Linked Incentive PMAY Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana PMKSY Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana PM-KUSUM Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyaan PPP Public Private Partnership PSC Portland Slag cement PSUs Public Sector Units PTA Preferential Trade Agreement 161 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sPV Photovoltaic QCO Quality Control Order R&D Research and Development RC Refining Charge RCM Reverse Charge Mechanism RE Renewable Energy REEs Rare Earth Elements SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises SOE State owned enterprises SX-EW Solvent Extraction & Electrowinning T&D Transmission & Distribution TC Treatment Charge Tn Trillion ToC Table of contents TPA Tonne Per Annum UMPP Ultra Mega Power Projects UNFC United Nations Framework Classification US/USA United States of America USD United States Dollar VAT Value added tax 162 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sAcknowledgement The Ministry of Mines extends its deepest appreciation to all the stakeholders who contributed for the preparation of the “Vision Document on Copper Sector”. This comprehensive report would not have been possible without the invaluable support and collaboration of the Copper Industry. The Ministry would like to express sincere appreciation to the primary and secondary Copper manufacturers, industry associations, academic institutions, research organizations, and key experts who provided critical data, insights, and guidance throughout the process. Your contributions, whether through data sharing, research findings, or constructive feedback, have enriched the quality and depth of this document. Your expertise and commitment have been instrumental in shaping this vision. The Ministry also acknowledges the use of various sources in the preparation of this report, including industry reports, market analysis, academic research papers, and government publications. The collective knowledge from these sources has been pivotal in ensuring the accuracy and comprehensiveness of our vision for the future of Copper in India. Further appreciation is extended to the team Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) and the team of M/s Deloitte for their significant contributions in the preparation of Vision Document on Copper Sector for India. Thank you all for your unwavering support and dedication to advancing the Copper industry. Together, we look forward to a sustainable and prosperous future. Finally, the Ministry extends its sincere thanks to all others who contributed for the preparation of this report. Link to access “Vision Document on Copper Sector”: https://mines.gov.in/webportal/content/vision-document 163 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine sखान मंत्रालय MINISTRY OF MINES भारत सरकार GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Follow us: | www.mines.gov.in 164 | Co ppe r Vision D oc ume nt | M inist ry o f M ine s