**Executive Summary**
The Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare conducted an AI-based pilot for local monsoon onset forecasts to assist 13 states during the 2025 Kharif season. Utilizing a blended model of artificial intelligence and historical data, the initiative reached over 3.88 crore farmers to guide sowing and land preparation decisions. Based on positive feedback, the government will integrate this capability into a national system for 2026 through a collaboration between IITM, IMD, and ISRO.
**Key Points / Main Content**
**Pilot Program and Technology**
* **Implementation:** The Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare partnered with Development Innovation Lab-India to provide agriculturally relevant local monsoon forecasts.
* **Model Composition:** The pilot used an open-source blended model including NeuralGCM, the ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), and 125 years of historical rainfall data from the IMD.
* **Focus:** Forecasts were probabilistic and specifically targeted the local onset of the monsoon to assist in crop sowing timelines.
**Communication and Reach**
* **Dissemination:** Forecasts were sent via SMS through the M-Kisan portal to 3,88,45,214 farmers.
* **Language Support:** Alerts were provided in five regional languages: Hindi, Odia, Marathi, Bangla, and Punjabi.
**Results and Farmer Adoption**
* **Feedback Surveys:** Telephonic surveys conducted in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar via Kisan Call Centers measured the pilot's effectiveness.
* **Behavioral Change:** Between 31% and 52% of surveyed farmers adjusted planting decisions, specifically regarding land preparation, sowing timing, and crop/input choices.
**Future Scaling and National Integration**
* **National System:** The government has decided to transition the pilot into a permanent national capability for 2026.
* **Institutional Collaboration:** The project will leverage in-house expertise from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), India Meteorological Department (IMD), and Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO).
* **Technical Enhancement:** Dynamical models from IITM, which show high accuracy in simulating local onsets, are currently being integrated into the AI framework.
**Impact Analysis**
**Farmers**
**Impact**
Access to localized, high-tech weather forecasts allowed farmers to mitigate risks associated with monsoon variability. A significant portion of the farming community successfully optimized their sowing schedules and resource allocation.
**Action Required**
Farmers should continue to monitor M-Kisan portal alerts and utilize localized onset data to inform land preparation and crop selection.
**Government Research Institutions (IITM, IMD, ISRO)**
**Impact**
These institutions are now responsible for transitioning a pilot project into a robust, in-house national technological solution.
**Action Required**
Collaborate to integrate IITM’s dynamical models into the existing AI framework to ensure the system is operational for the 2026 season.
**Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare**
**Impact**
The Ministry is moving from a collaborative pilot phase with external labs to a self-sustained national forecasting system.
**Action Required**
Oversee the integration of multi-agency data and ensure the continued dissemination of forecasts in regional languages to nearly 4 crore farmers.
Key Entities Referenced
AI-based pilot for local monsoon onset forecasts: A technological initiative conducted to provide probabilistic forecasts for agriculturally relevant monsoon onset to support Kharif sowing decisions.
Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare: The primary government department that conducted the AI pilot and is responsible for implementing the forecasting capability into the national system.
Development Innovation Lab-India: The collaborative partner that worked with the government to develop and conduct the agriculturally relevant local monsoon forecasts.
M-Kisan portal: The digital communication platform used to disseminate local monsoon onset forecasts via SMS to over 3.88 crore farmers across 13 states.
India Meteorological Department (IMD): The national meteorological agency providing historical rainfall data and collaborating on the development of the in-house technological forecasting solution.
Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare
Government Conducts AI-Based Pilot for Local
Monsoon Forecasting to Support Kharif Sowing
Decisions
Posted On: 17 MAR 2026 7:12PM by PIB Delhi
In the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, an AI-based pilot was conducted in collaboration
with the Development Innovation Lab-India on agriculturally relevant local monsoon onset forecasts
across parts of 13 states in India for Kharif 2025. An open-source blended model was used, including
NeuralGCM, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) Artificial
Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), and historical rainfall data from 125 years from the India
Meteorological Department (IMD).
The probabilistic forecasts predicted only the local onset of the monsoon, which is essential for deciding
on the date of sowing crops. Local monsoon onset forecasts were sent via SMS through the M-Kisan
portal to 3,88,45,214 farmers in 13states in five regional languages- Hindi, Odia, Marathi, Bangla, and
Punjabi.
Telephonic farmer feedback surveys were conducted in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar through Kisan Call
Centers after the forecasts were sent. The survey revealed that 31% to 52% farmers adjusted their planting
decisions, primarily through changes in land preparation and sowing timing, which included crop and
input choice.
Further, the Government has decided to implement this capability into the national system based on an
equivalent in-house technological solution, leveraging collaboration among the Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology (IITM), India Meteorological Department (IMD), and Indian Space Research Organisation
(ISRO). As the dynamical models from IITM have demonstrated better skills in simulating the local onset,
they are being integrated into the AI framework for 2026.
This information was given by Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Shri Bhagirath
Choudhary in a written reply in Lok Sabha today.
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