**Executive Summary**
On April 20, 2026, NITI Aayog released the seventh edition of the “Trade Watch Quarterly,” covering India’s trade performance for Q3 FY26 (October–December 2025). The publication provides a comprehensive assessment of global and domestic trade trends, with a specific thematic focus on the gems and jewellery sector. The report outlines strategic priorities to address structural constraints and enhance India's export competitiveness in an evolving global landscape.
**Key Points / Main Content**
**Q3 FY2025-26 Trade Performance**
* **Merchandise Trade:** India’s merchandise exports grew by 1.6%, while imports rose by 7.9%.
* **Services Trade:** Services exports showed strong growth of 7.8%, maintaining a sustained surplus that anchored the external balance.
* **Resilience:** Overall trade performance remained resilient despite global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
**Gems and Jewellery Sector Analysis**
* **Market Share:** India accounts for 7.8% of world exports in this sector (valued at $29.5 billion), excluding raw gold.
* **Core Strengths:** Export strength is concentrated in diamonds and precious metal jewellery, with Surat serving as the world’s largest cutting and polishing hub.
* **Emerging Segments:** The report identifies lab-grown diamonds as a key emerging segment for future growth and diversification.
**Structural Challenges and Constraints**
* **Market Concentration:** Exports are heavily directed toward limited markets, specifically the United States, UAE, and Hong Kong.
* **Operational Barriers:** The sector faces a fragmented MSME base, limited value addition, and heavy reliance on imported raw materials.
* **Resource Gaps:** Critical issues include a "credit gap" caused by a lack of trust from financial institutions, alongside skill and design gaps.
**Policy and Strategic Priorities**
* **Value Addition:** A strategic push is required to move toward higher value addition and integration into global trading hubs.
* **Innovation:** Investment in technology, skills, and improved access to raw materials is essential for maintaining competitiveness.
**Impact Analysis**
**Policymakers**
**Impact:** They are provided with data-driven insights and forward-looking recommendations to shape trade policy.
**Action Required:** Develop and implement conducive policy frameworks to improve access to finance and raw materials while supporting sectoral integration into global value chains.
**Gems and Jewellery Industry (including MSMEs)**
**Impact:** The industry must adapt to structural shifts in global trade and evolving demand patterns.
**Action Required:** Focus on diversifying export bases, investing in technology and skill development, and increasing value addition in products.
**Financial Institutions**
**Impact:** Identified as a contributing factor to the sector's credit gap due to a lack of trust.
**Action Required:** Re-evaluate credit assessment frameworks to provide better access to finance for gems and jewellery businesses.
**Researchers and Academia**
**Impact:** They gain access to a comprehensive resource for studying global and domestic trade trends.
**Action Required:** Utilize the publication's data to support informed decision-making and further analytical research on trade competitiveness.
Key Entities Referenced
NITI Aayog: India's premier policy think tank which launched the 'Trade Watch Quarterly' to provide trade assessments and policy recommendations.
Trade Watch Quarterly: A quarterly publication that evaluates global and domestic trade trends and identifies policy priorities to enhance India's export performance.
Gems and Jewellery Sector: The primary thematic focus of the report, identified as a critical pillar of India’s manufacturing ecosystem and a major export contributor.
Suman Bery: Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog who released the publication and highlighted strategies for strengthening domestic capabilities and export diversification.
Surat: Identified as the world’s largest cutting and polishing hub, serving as a central location for India's diamond and jewellery industry.
NITI Aayog
NITI Aayog launches seventh edition of “Trade
Watch Quarterly”
Posted On: 20 APR 2026 5:12PM by PIB Delhi
Shri Suman Bery, Vice-Chairman, NITI Aayog, released the latest edition of the “Trade Watch Quarterly”
publication for Quarter 3 of FY26 (October-December 2025) on 20th April 2026, in New Delhi. It was
released in the distinguished presence of Member, NITI Aayog, Shri Arvind Virmani and other senior
officials.
The publication provides a comprehensive assessment of global and domestic trade trends at a time when
global trade has demonstrated resilience despite persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
The thematic section of this quarter’s edition focuses on India’s gems and jewellery sector, examining
global demand dynamics, India’s export profile, emerging segments such as lab-grown diamonds, and its
positioning within global value chains. It also identifies key structural constraints, evolving demand
patterns, and policy priorities required to strengthen competitiveness and enhance export performance.
India’s trade performance in Q3 FY2025-26 reflected a mixed but resilient trend, with merchandise
exports registering modest growth of 1.6% while imports rose at a faster pace of 7.9%. In contrast,
services exports grew strongly by 7.8%, with relatively moderate growth in services imports, resulting in a
sustained surplus that continued to anchor the overall external balance.
Gems and jewellery, the thematic focus of this quarter’s edition remains a critical pillar of India’s labour-
intensive manufacturing ecosystem and a significant contributor to trade. Excluding raw gold, the global
market size is estimated at around $378 billion in 2024, with India’s exports valued at $29.5 billion,
accounting for a 7.8% share in the world exports.
India’s export strength in the sector remains concentrated in diamonds and precious metal jewellery, which
together account for over half of global demand ~ $207.3 billion. In these segments, India has achieved a
strong global presence, with exports of $26.7 billion, reflecting its established role as a global processinghub driven by value addition in imported raw materials, with Surat emerging as the world’s largest cutting
and polishing hub.
The analysis highlights that India’s trade structure in the sector is characterised by high product and
market concentration. Exports are largely directed towards a few key markets, notably the United States,
UAE, and Hong Kong, while imports are concentrated in a limited number of suppliers for raw materials.
Despite these opportunities, the sector faces structural challenges including limited value addition due to a
fragmented MSME base, heavy reliance on imported inputs, credit gap due to lack of trust from financial
institutions, skill and design gaps, and limited integration into global trading hubs. Addressing these issues
will require a strategic push towards higher value addition, diversification into emerging segments,
improved access to finance and raw materials, investment in technology and skills, and the development
of a more integrated and globally competitive ecosystem supported by conducive policy frameworks.
Addressing the occasion, Shri Suman Bery stated that “as global trade undergoes structural shifts, India’s
ability to diversify its export base while strengthening domestic capabilities in key sectors will be critical
to sustaining growth and enhancing resilience. In sectors such as gems and jewellery, aligning with
evolving global demand, strengthening value addition, and addressing structural constraints is essential for
maintaining competitiveness.”
Member, Dr. Arvind Virmani also appreciated the analytical depth of the publication and noted that
strengthening integration into global value chains, alongside targeted sectoral interventions, will be central
to sustaining India’s export momentum and generating quality employment.
The edition serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, industry, researchers, and academia, offering
data-driven insights and forward-looking policy recommendations to support informed decision-making
and strengthen India’s trade competitiveness in an evolving global landscape.
The full publication can be accessed at: https://niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2026-04/Trade-Watch-Quarterl
y-Oct-Dec-Q3-FY-2025-26.pdf
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