Parliament Question: Accurate Weather Forecasting

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 1902 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 11TH FEBRUARY, 2026 ACCURATE WEATHER FORECASTING †1902. SHRI SANATAN PANDEY: Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state: (a) the details of new techniques being used by the Government for accurate weather forecasting in view of the rapidly changing weather pattern and natural calamities during the last few years; (b) whether any new technology is under consideration to be used in future and if so, the details thereof; and (c) the details of types of technologies for which we are dependent on foreign institutions for weather forecasting? ANSWER THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH) (a) In view of the occurrences of higher frequencies of natural calamities during the last few years, the Government has strengthened and modernized observational systems, developed and operationalized new weather and climate models to improve the prediction of various severe weather events at a more granular scale. Systematic modernisation activities undertaken through Monsoon Mission and Mission Mausam to increase High Performance Computing (HPC), data integration, and the application of new techniques and technologies, such as AI/ML-based systems, to the weather prediction methodology. Some of the major progress achieved till 2025, compared to 2014, is given in Annexure-1. Under Monsoon Mission and Mission Mausam, two global forecast models, such as GFS 12 km and NCUM 12 km, have been operational in real time since 2018. The Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS) has been operational since May 2025 at a very high resolution of 6 km to cater to block-levels and, further, to panchayat levels. To provide computational support for such high-resolution models and to enable regular real-time operation, the computing facilities have also been substantially increased in computational power to integrate voluminous data and run mesoscale, regional, and global models at higher resolution. Recently, with the implementation of the HPC Systems "Arunika" and "Arka", the Ministry of Earth Sciences has enhanced its total computing power to 28 Peta FLOPS in 2025, a substantial increase from the previous capacity of 6.8 Peta FLOPS in 2014.To automate and integrate data and forecasts, IMD has developed an end-to-end GIS- based Decision Support System (DSS) that serves as the front end of the early warning systems for the timely detection and monitoring of all-weather hazards. It is supported by specific severe weather modules to provide timely, impact-based early warnings for extreme weather events such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, fog, and heatwaves, which have devastating impacts on human lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. This system uses all historical data, their extremes, as well as real-time surface and upper-air meteorological observations available to it for the Indian region and neighbourhood. It also includes radar observations available every 10 minutes and Satellite products available every 15 minutes. It also uses Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products from a suite of models run in MoES. To provide impact- based forecasts and warnings, the DSS integrates exposure and hazard data. (b) Yes. To address further gap areas in the weather and climate services and to effectively use new technologies in the future, the Ministry of Earth Sciences has implemented Mission Mausam Scheme. Mission Mausam Scheme is a multi-faceted and transformative initiative to boost India's weather and climate-related science, research, and services. In addition, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies is also improving the precision of predictions by enhancing model accuracy and prediction resolution. (c) MoES institutions rely on foreign institutions primarily for core modeling frameworks, advanced assimilation techniques, and high-end computing hardware related to numerical weather prediction. Core Modeling Frameworks: Through MoES, NCMRWF (National Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting) is a core partner in the "Momentum" partnership with the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. The aim of the Momentum Partnership is to provide a framework for all partners to effectively use and contribute to the development of a world-leading seamless modelling framework for NWP. The NCMRWF-NWP system is based on the Momentum Partnership's advanced Unified Model system. This modelling system used an advanced dynamical core (END Game) and representation of physical processes. The data assimilation system is Hybrid 4D- Var. The ensemble prediction system used the En-4DEnVar system. 4D-Var/Hybrid Data Assimilation: UKMO-sourced variational codes customized for NCUM, handling radar/satellite observations critical for monsoon/cyclone initialization. Hardware and Software: Supercomputing Components: NVIDIA/AMD GPUs in Arunika supercomputer, plus CUDA libraries for AI/ML acceleration (GraphCast/Pangu downscaling).Annexure-1 Parameter/ December December 2025 System 2014 Automatic 12 1008 Weather Station network Doppler 15 47 Weather Radar Rain Gauge 3500 6700 Stations Runway Visual 20 186 (49 Drishti + 137 FSM RVR) Range Systems Current weather 29 Airports out All airports are equipped with RWY instruments, indicating of 99 Airports including all new airports (137 Digital Current Weather systems at RWY Indicating System at 93 Airport out of 107 Airports) Pressure Mercury Digital Barometers measuring Barometers No of stations for 300 cities 1601 cities City forecasts Nowcast stations 141 1211 High 1.1 Peta flops 28 Peta flops Performance Processing Processing speed Computing speed (HPC) Upper air 43 RS/RW 56 RS/RW Stations. observations Stations 62 Pilot Balloon stations 62 Pilot Balloon stations High Wind 19 36 (Goa station decommissioned) Speed Recorders Early Warnings No extended Since April, 2018, extended range outlook are being for Tropical range outlook issued for cyclogenesis over entire North Indian Ocean Cyclones was issued. for next two weeks every Thursday. No pre-genesis Since April, 2022, pre-genesis forecast of track & forecast of track intensity are being issued from low pressure stage itself. & intensity was issued. Early Warnings Early Warnings for Tropical Cyclones were issued 5 for Tropical days in advance from deep depression stage since April, Cyclones were 2018. issued 3 days in advance fromdeep depression stage. 24 Hours 24 Hours forecast error was reduced to 16.2 km during forecast error 2020-24. was 125 km during 2006-13. 72 Hours 72 Hours forecast error was reduced to 69.5 km during forecast error 2020-24. was 268 km during 2006-13. In particular, accuracy of cyclone track, intensity and landfall point forecasts increased by 35-40%, 15-30% and 45-65% up to 48 hrs in advance. All these improvements have led to significant improvement in forecast accuracy of severe weather events and also significant reduction in death toll e.g., due to cyclones, around 7000 people lost their lives in 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone while it has been reduced to less than 100 over entire region from impact of tropical cyclones during recent years. Accurate forecast of 1 cyclone saves around 1100 crore rupees in terms of expenditure towards payment of ex-gratia to kins of dead, cost towards evacuation and savings to various sectors e.g., Power, Marine, Aviation, Railways etc. sector. Agro- Agro- Agro-Meteorological Advisories are now reaching to Meteorological Meteorological about 276.7 lakh farmers. Advisories Advisories were reaching to about 70 lakh farmers. District Agro- There was no 199 District Agro-Met Units (DAMUs) were established Met Units District Agro- and are functioning. Met Unit (DAMU). A total number of 200 Agro-Automatic Weather Stations (Agro-AWS) are functioning and installed at Agro AWSs KVKs under DAMU project. 125 Agro- Automatic Earlier installed 125 Agro AWS during 2009-2012 is Weather under upgradation under 330 Agro AWS Project 2025- Stations (Agro- 2026. AWS) were established. All 130 AMFUs is under upgraded with Agro AWS with four depth soil sensors and sunshine duration and global radiation measurement under 330 Agro AWS Project 2025-2026Coverage of Resolution persisted District level Agro advisory services are Agro- up to district level. Provided to all districts of India. Meteorological Advisories Medium Range 25 km resolution 6 km Bharat Forecasting System: Government Forecast with 2 Models has launched indigenously built BFS, a state of Global (GFS, NCUM) art numerical weather prediction model, since Forecasting 27 May 2025. It promises finer and accurate System rain forecasts down to the panchayat/cluster of panchayats level. 2 other models: 12 km resolution with 2 Models (GFS, NCUM) Heat wave 68 % for 24 hr lead 100 % for 24 hr lead period forecast period accuracy at 95% for 48 hr lead period meteorological 50 % for 48 hr lead sub-division period 90 % for 72 hr lead period levels 27 % for 72 hr lead period Heavy Rainfall Probability of Probability of Detection (POD) for south west forecast Detection (POD) for monsoon heavy rainfall warning is accuracy south west monsoon heavy rainfall 85 – for day 1 warning is 73 - for day 2 and 50 – for day 1 67 - for day3 48 - for day 2 and 37 - for day3 Thunderstorm 3 days in advance up Thunderstorm and lightning warnings are and lightning to Meteorological issued twice a day 5 days in advance upto warning Sub-divisions level District level. The Probability of detection for only. 24 hourly thunderstorm forecast is 0.89 in 2025 as compared to 0.31 in the year 2016. Similarly, the Probability of detection for 3 hourly thunderstorm nowcast is 0.93 in 2025 as compared to 0.61 in the year 2014. Quantitative It had a 2-day By 2024, the validity period has increased to 7- Precipitation validity with a 3-day days and accuracy has improved by over 10- Forecast (QPF) outlook in 2014. 15% since 2016Establishment of 2 ARG established 57 ARGs were installed by MoES Meso-network of by MoES Automatic Rain 60 ARGs were installed by BMC Gauges (ARG) and Doppler C-Band Doppler Weather Radar at Veravali Weather made operational in January 2022. Radars(DWRs) 4 X-band Doppler Weather Radars were over Mumbai installed under the project of IITM, Pune. Metropolitan Region Dissemination of real-time rainfall information through mobile apps (Mumbai Weather Live) and web based data portal (Monsoon Online ) http://mumbairain.tropmet.res.in/ Data 50 GB per day 500 GB per day assimilation in NWP models ********