**Summary:**
In May 2025, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially adopted the Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS) to improve weather prediction accuracy, particularly for extreme weather events, down to the panchayat cluster level (approximately 6 km resolution). BharatFS, developed over five years and rigorously tested since 2022, focuses on enhancing short and medium-range weather forecasts. Testing has demonstrated a 30% increase in accuracy for extreme rainfall predictions compared to the previous operational model, especially over the central monsoon region. The system uses a TCo (Triangular Cubic Octahedral) dynamical grid to enhance resolution specifically over the tropics, enabling the 6 km horizontal resolution in these regions. This new grid structure addresses computational and theoretical challenges associated with simply increasing the resolution of the older 12 km GFS T1534 model. The Ministry of Earth Sciences oversees the IMD's implementation and use of the BharatFS. The responsible Minister of State is Dr. Jitendra Singh, Minister of State Independent Charge for Ministry of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences.
Key Entities Referenced
India Meteorological Department: The national meteorological service of India, responsible for weather forecasting and related services.
Bharat Forecast System: A weather forecasting system adopted by the India Meteorological Department, designed to provide fine-tuned and accurate rain forecasts, especially at the panchayat level.
SHRI V K SREEKANDAN: The Member of Parliament who raised the question about the Bharat Forecast System in the Lok Sabha.
Lok Sabha: The lower house of the Parliament of India.
Ministry of Earth Sciences: The Indian government ministry responsible for earth science research and services, including meteorology.
DR. JITENDRA SINGH: The Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Ministry of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences.
TCo Triangular Cubic Octahedral: The newly implemented dynamical grid used in Bharat Forecast System. This TCo grid enhances resolution specifically over the tropics, enabling the model to achieve a horizontal resolution of approximately 6 km in these regions.
GFS T1534 model: The earlier operational 12 km Global Forecast System model, which Bharat Forecast System superseded.
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
LOK SABHA
UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 549
TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 23RD JULY, 2025
BHARAT FORECAST SYSTEM
549. SHRI V K SREEKANDAN:
Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:
(a) whether it is a fact that the India Meteorological Department adopted the Bharat Forecast
System which promises fine tuned and accurate rain forecasts down to the panchayat level
and if so, the details thereof;
(b) whether it is also true that the improvement will largely be visible in the short and medium
term forecasts but not in the long-range forecasts which is usually given a month in advance
and if so, the details thereof;
(c) whether it is a fact that Bharat Forecast System has been tested since 2002 and has shown
notable improvements in giving advance warning of heavy rainfall events; and
(d) if so, the details of the new invention generated by the Bharat Forecast System as of now?
ANSWER
THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR
MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
AND EARTH SCIENCES
(DR. JITENDRA SINGH)
(a) Yes. India Meteorological Department officially adopted the Bharat Forecast System
(BharatFS) on 26th May 2025. This forecast system runs at a resolution of 6 km, typically
about the size of a cluster of panchayats/villages. The goal of BharatFS's development was to
enhance the accuracy of extreme weather prediction and produce forecasts at the panchayat
cluster level. The new model supersedes its predecessor in terms of model configuration and
forecast accuracy. It has improved representation of orography, better filtering, and better
conservation properties.
(b) The recently launched BharatFS has been developed primarily for improving the short- and
medium-range weather prediction and not for long range forecasting.
(c) The development of the BharatFS began about five years ago and was successfully tested in
2022 not in 2002. Since then, it has undergone rigorous evaluation. The results have been
promising, with the system showing significant improvement in predicting the rainfall over
central monsoon region and a 30% increase in accuracy for extreme rainfall compared to the
previous operational model.
(d) Directly increasing the model resolution using conventional methods in the earlier operational
12 km GFS T1534 model would have led to significant computational and theoretical
challenges. These limitations underscore the need for a more advanced and efficient
forecasting system like BharatFS. Consequently, the BharatFS was designed using the newly
implemented dynamical grid known as TCo (Triangular Cubic Octahedral). This TCo grid
enhances resolution specifically over the tropics, enabling the model to achieve a horizontal
resolution of approximately 6 km in these regions. Due to the enhanced resolution, the
BharatFS is able to provide more accurate local weather forecasts. Rigorous analysis of the
model since 2022 has shown a 30% improvement in the accuracy of extreme rainfall
predictions.
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