**Executive Summary**
This press note, issued by the National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on January 7, 2026, presents the First Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Financial Year (FY) 2025-26. The estimates include expenditure components at both Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, with detailed statements provided in Annexure A. The Second Advance Estimates of GDP for FY 2025-26 will be released on February 27, 2026.
**Key Points / Main Content**
**GDP and GVA Growth:**
* Real GDP is estimated to grow by 7.4% in FY 2025-26, compared to 6.5% in FY 2024-25.
* Nominal GDP is estimated to grow by 8.0% in FY 2025-26.
* Real GVA is estimated to grow by 7.3% in FY 2025-26, driven by growth in the Services Sector.
**Sectoral Growth (at Constant Prices):**
* Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services (Tertiary Sector) are estimated to grow at 9.9%.
* Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting Sector are estimated to grow by 7.5%.
* Manufacturing and Construction (Secondary Sector) are estimated to grow by 7.0%.
* Agriculture & Allied Sector (3.1%) and Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services Sector (2.1%) have shown moderate growth.
**Expenditure Components:**
* Real Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) is estimated to grow by 7.0%.
* Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) is estimated to grow by 7.8%.
**Methodology and Data Sources:**
* Estimates are indicator-based, extrapolated from the previous financial year (2024-25).
* Data sourced from various Ministries/Departments/Private Agencies.
* Compilation relies on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), financial performance of listed companies, estimates of major agricultural crops, production of coal, steel etc, Goods and Services Tax collections etc.
* Indicators used for compiling expenditure components of GDP relies on a subset of indicators that are used in Production approach.
**Upcoming Revisions:**
* The Base year of National Accounts is being revised from FY 2011-12 to FY 2022-23.
* Advance and Quarterly Estimates will undergo revisions due to changes in methodology, updated data sources, and updated benchmarks.
**Impact Analysis**
**Government (Ministries/Departments):**
**Impact:** Key data providers and consumers of GDP estimates for policy and planning.
**Action Required:** Continue to provide timely and accurate data for GDP compilation and incorporate revised estimates into future economic strategies.
**Businesses and Investors:**
**Impact:** The estimates provide insight into economic trends and sector performance.
**Action Required:** Analyze the data to inform investment decisions and adjust business strategies based on the projected growth in various sectors.
**General Public:**
**Impact:** Broad understanding of the economic health and performance of the country.
**Action Required:** Be aware of the economic context and potential impact on employment opportunities and financial well-being.
**Economists and Researchers:**
**Impact:** Data for analysis and model building.
**Action Required:** Utilize the GDP estimates to conduct research, forecast future economic trends, and develop economic models.
Key Entities Referenced
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Primary economic indicator being estimated in the document, along with its growth rates and components.
Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI): Releasing the First Advance Estimates of GDP, indicating its role as the primary governmental body responsible.
National Statistics Office (NSO): The office within MoSPI responsible for compiling and releasing the GDP estimates.
Gross Value Added (GVA): A key component of GDP, analyzed by economic sectors.
Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation
FIRST ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF GROSS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2025-26
Real GDP has witnessed 7.4% growth rate in FY 2025-26
over the growth rate of 6.5% in FY 2024-25
Buoyant growth in Services Sector has led Indian Economy
registering Real GVA growth of 7.3% in FY 2025-26
प्रव तथ: 07 JAN 2026 4:00PM by PIB Delhi
The National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
(MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note, the First Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for
the Financial Year (FY) 2025-26 along with its Expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and
Current Prices. Annual Estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices for various economic sectors
along with Year-on-Year percent changes, Expenditure components of GDP, Annual estimates of Gross/Net
National Income and Per Capita Income for the FYs 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 at Constant and
Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 4 of Annexure A.
Key Highlights:
Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.4% in FY 2025-26 against the growth rate of 6.5%
during FY 2024-25.
Nominal GDP is estimated to grow at 8.0% in FY 2025-26.
Buoyant Growth in Services Sector has been found to be a major driver in the estimated Real
GVA growth rate of 7.3% in FY 2025-26.
Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other
Services in the Tertiary Sector have been estimated to attain a substantial growth rate of 9.9% at
Constant Prices in FY 2025-26.
Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting Sector has been
estimated to grow by 7.5% at Constant Prices in FY 2025-26.
Manufacturing and Construction in the Secondary Sector has been estimated to achieve a growth
rate of 7.0% at Constant Prices in FY 2025-26.
Agriculture & Allied Sector (3.1%) and Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility
Services Sector (2.1%) have seen moderate growth rate in GVA at Constant Prices during FY
2025-26.
Real Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has been estimated to attain a growth rate
of 7.0% during FY 2025-26.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has been estimated to have 7.8% growth rate at Constant
Prices during FY 2025-26, compared to 7.1% growth rate in previous FY.I. Annual Estimates and Growth Rates
Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹201.90 lakh crore in FY
2025-26, against the Provisional Estimates (PE) of GDP for the FY 2024-25 of ₹187.97 lakh crore,
registering a growth rate of 7.4%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to attain a level
of ₹357.14 lakh crore in the FY 2025-26, against ₹330.68 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, showing a growth
rate of 8.0%.
Real GVA is estimated at ₹184.50 lakh crore in the FY 2025-26, against the Provisional
Estimates (PE) for the FY 2024-25 of ₹171.87 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 7.3%. Nominal
GVA is estimated to attain a level of ₹323.48 lakh crore during FY 2025-26, against ₹300.22 lakh crore
in FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 7.7%.
Fig. 1: Annual GDP and GVA Estimates along with Y-o-Y Growth Rates at Constant Prices
Fig. 2: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates of Annual GVA
Sectoral Composition of Nominal GVA in FY 2025-26Fig. 3: Composition and Growth Rates of Annual GVA in Broad Sectors[Primary Sector: Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing and Mining & Quarrying
Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water supply & Other Utility Services and
Construction
Tertiary Sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting,
Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services]
II. Methodology and Major Data Sources:
Advance Estimates of GDP are indicator based and compiled using the benchmark-indicator
method i.e. the estimates available for the previous financial year (2024-25) are extrapolated using the
relevant indicators reflecting the performance of the sectors. Data sourced from various
Ministries/Departments/Private Agencies serve as valuable inputs in the compilation of these estimates.
The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators/data sources viz. (i) Index of
Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) Financial performance of Listed Companies based on available quarterly
financial results of these companies for Q1 and Q2 of 2025-26, (iii) Estimates of Major Agricultural
Crops for 2025-26 as provided by Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, (iv) Summer as well as
Rainy season production estimates of Major Livestock Products for 2025-26; (v) Fish Production, (vi)
Production of Coal, Crude Petroleum, Natural Gas, Cement and Consumption of Steel, (vii) Net Tonne
Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil
Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi)
Bank Deposits and Credits, (xii) Premium related information of Life and Non-Life Insurance
companies, (xiii) Data on outward Supplies of Goods and Services available from GSTN upto November
2025, (xiv) Accounts of Central and State Governments, (xv) Goods and Services Tax collections etc.,
available till the latest period of FY 2025-26. Year-on-Year growth rates (%) in the main indicators used
in the estimation are given in the Annexure B.
Total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue.
The Budget Estimates of Tax Revenue for FY 2025-26 along with latest available information from the
websites of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG)
have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at
Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The
total product subsidies at Current Prices were compiled using information on major subsidies viz, Food,Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy for Centre as available on CGA website and the expenditure
incurred on subsidies by most States up to November 2025 as available on CAG website along with the
Centre/ State-wise BE provision for 2025-26.
The indicators used for compilation of Expenditure components of GDP relies on a subset of
indicators that are used in Production approach. However, the components like Import of Goods and
Services, Export of Goods and Services, Valuables, Import and Export of Capital Goods are compiled
based on the Monthly Import and Export data, sourced from Ministry of Commerce and Industry and
Reserve Bank of India. Information available on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc.
from the websites of CGA and CAG were used for estimating Government Final Consumption
Expenditure (GFCE). The Discrepancy refers to the gap between GDP by Production and Expenditure
approach. The estimates of various economic sectors, as well as expenditure components using different
kind of data sources and deflators, have likely attributed to the quantum and direction of Discrepancy.
It is being informed that Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is
currently in the process of revising the Base year of National Accounts from FY 2011-12 (Current
Series) to FY 2022-23 (New Series). Therefore, the Advance and Quarterly Estimates will undergo
revisions due to Changes in the Methodology of Estimation at Current and Constant Prices,
Incorporation of Updated and New Data Sources, Updation of Annual Benchmark etc. Users should
consider these factors while interpreting the subsequent revised estimates. The Second Advance
Estimates of GDP for FY 2025-26 along with past 3 financial years’ GDP estimates as well as Quarterly
GDP estimates as per the new base FY 2022-23 will be released on 27.02.2026.
***********
Annexure AAnnexure B
Year-on-Year Growth Rates (%) in Major IndicatorsClick here for pdf file.
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Samrat
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