**Executive Summary**
Mission Mausam, a multi-phase program by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has enhanced its High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems, leading to significant improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting accuracy. Key deadlines or specific action items are not mentioned, but the program's success is evident in improved disaster preparedness and socio-economic benefits. The proposed second phase will further strengthen weather observation and forecasting capabilities.
**Key Points / Main Content**
* **Mission Mausam Infrastructure:**
* High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems, "ARKA" (11.77 petaflops) and "ARUNIKA" (8.24 petaflops), along with a 1.9 petaflops AI/ML system, were inaugurated on September 26, 2024.
* This brings the Ministry's total computing capacity to 21.91 petaflops, enabling advanced modeling and AI/ML application for forecasting.
* **Forecasting Improvements (2021-2025 vs. 2016-2020):**
* **Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts:** Errors reduced by 5-10% for lead times up to 48 hours and by 20-25% for longer lead times.
* **Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts:** Substantial improvement, with a 33-35% enhancement for lead times up to 72 hours, and a 10% decrease in errors at 96-hour lead time.
* **Landfall Prediction:** Significant improvement, with landfall point errors decreasing by 35-45% for 24-48 hours and by approximately 20% for other lead periods.
* Average 24-hour landfall point error reduced from 31.9 km to 19.0 km.
* Average 48-hour landfall error reduced from 61.5 km to 34.4 km.
* **Heatwave Forecasts:** Now issued 4-5 days in advance, facilitating heat action plans.
* **Socio-Economic Benefits:**
* Timely evacuation during cyclones.
* Improved agricultural planning during monsoons.
* Enhanced disaster preparedness, reducing loss of life and property.
* Reduced economic disruptions.
* Better early warnings for cyclones, heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events.
* Improved decision-making in sectors such as agriculture, disaster management, aviation, fisheries, and energy.
* **Programmatic Design:**
* Mission Mausam is a multi-phase program.
* The Government intends to continue and expand the initiative in subsequent phases.
* The proposed second phase will focus on strengthening the national weather observation network and enhancing high-resolution weather and climate modeling capabilities with HPC and AI/ML integration.
**Impact Analysis**
**Stakeholders:**
* **General Public**
* **Impact:** Receives improved early warnings for extreme weather events, leading to better disaster preparedness, timely evacuations, and reduced loss of life and property.
* **Action Required:** Remain attentive to advisories and warnings issued by relevant authorities.
* **Agricultural Sector**
* **Impact:** Benefits from better agricultural planning during the monsoon season due to improved weather forecasts.
* **Action Required:** Utilize enhanced forecasting information for agricultural decision-making.
* **Disaster Management Authorities**
* **Impact:** Enabled to implement more effective disaster preparedness and response plans due to earlier and more accurate warnings for cyclones, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall.
* **Action Required:** Integrate improved forecast data into disaster management strategies and operations.
* **State and District Authorities**
* **Impact:** Can effectively implement heat action plans with advance heatwave forecasts.
* **Action Required:** Utilize heatwave forecasts for proactive implementation of heat action plans.
* **Aviation, Fisheries, and Energy Sectors**
* **Impact:** Benefit from improved forecasting, likely leading to better operational planning and safety.
* **Action Required:** Leverage enhanced weather and climate services for sector-specific decision-making.
* **Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and its Institutions (IMD, IITM, NCMRWF)**
* **Impact:** Responsible for implementing and continuously improving the forecasting capabilities. The success of the mission is directly linked to their performance.
* **Action Required:** Continue to develop and refine weather and climate models, integrate AI/ML, strengthen observation networks, and conduct periodic impact assessments. Implement the proposed second phase of Mission Mausam.
Key Entities Referenced
Mission Mausam: A multi-phase program aimed at enhancing weather forecasting capabilities through advanced computing and AI/ML integration.
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES): The governing body responsible for implementing Mission Mausam and evaluating its impact.
High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems: Advanced computational infrastructure, including systems named 'ARKA' and 'ARUNIKA', that enhance weather and climate modeling.
India Meteorological Department (IMD): An institution contributing to Mission Mausam, particularly in improving tropical cyclone forecasting accuracy.
Dr. Jitendra Singh: Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences who submitted information about Mission Mausam in Lok Sabha.
Ministry of Earth Sciences
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: Implementation of
Mission Mausam
Posted On: 11 MAR 2026 12:21PM by PIB Delhi
Under Mission Mausam, the High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems of the Ministry of Earth
Sciences were inaugurated on 26 September 2024 by the Hon’ble Prime Minister at the Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology, Pune and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida. The
systems, named “ARKA” (computing capacity of 11.77 petaflops) and “ARUNIKA” (8.24 petaflops), along
with a dedicated 1.9 petaflops AI/ML system, have increased the Ministry’s total computing capacity to
21.91 petaflops. This enhanced computational infrastructure enables development of advanced high-
resolution weather and climate models and the application of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
(AI and ML) for forecasting.
IMD has achieved a significant leap in tropical cyclone forecasting accuracy during the 2021-2025 period
compared to 2016-2020. Track forecast errors have been reduced by 5-10% for lead times up to 48 hours
and by 20-25% for longer lead times. Intensity forecasting has also shown substantial improvement, with a
33-35% enhancement for lead times up to 72 hours, while errors at the 96-hour lead time have decreased by
10%. The most pronounced improvement has been observed in landfall prediction, which is critical for
timely coastal evacuations. Landfall point errors decreased by 35-45% for 24 to 48 hours and by about 20%
for other lead periods. The average 24- hour landfall point error reduced from 31.9 km during 2016-20 to
19.0 km during 2021-25, while the 48-hour landfall error declined from 61.5 km to 34.4 km. Heatwave
forecasts are now issued 4–5 days in advance, enabling effective implementation of heat action plans by
State and district authorities. These improvements have resulted in significant socio-economic benefits,
including timely evacuation during cyclones, better agricultural planning during the monsoon, and
improved disaster preparedness, thereby reducing loss of life, property, and economic disruptions across
multiple sectors.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) periodically evaluates the benefits of improvements in weather and
climate services through impact assessments, verification of forecast skill scores, and feedback from user
sectors such as agriculture, disaster management, aviation, fisheries, and energy. These assessments indicate
that improved forecasting capabilities—implemented by institutions such as the India Meteorological
Department, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecasting—have resulted in significant public benefits, including better early warnings for cyclones,
heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events. The improvements have enabled timely
evacuations, enhanced disaster preparedness, better agricultural decision-making, and reduced loss of life
and property.Further, Mission Mausam has been designed as a multi-phase programme. The Government proposes to
continue and expand the initiative in subsequent phases based on the outcomes of the first phase. Several
initiatives under the mission expected to improve our understanding of the complex weather processes. The
proposed second phase will focus on further strengthening the national weather observation network,
enhancing high-resolution weather and climate modelling capabilities using advanced High-Performance
Computing, integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in forecasting systems.
This information was submitted by Minister of State (Independent Charge) For Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra
Singh in Lok Sabha today.
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NKR/JKP
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