Parliament Question: Statistical Modelling for District-Level Development Planning

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 1649 TO BE ANSWERED ON 10.12.2025 STATISTICAL MODELLING FOR DISTRICT-LEVEL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING 1649. SHRI ANURAG SHARMA: SHRI SHASHANK MANI: SHRI TATKARE SUNIL DATTATREY: DR. RAJKUMAR SANGWAN: Will the Minister of STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION be pleased to state: (a) whether the National Statistics Office (NSO) has undertaken studies to develop model-based district-level estimates for key socio- economic indicators and if so, the details thereof district-wise including Baghpat District, Uttar Pradesh (U.P.); (b) the methodology adopted for generating such district-level estimates and the role of auxiliary data sources in improving accuracy; (c) the manner in which the said statistical models are expected to assist in evidence-based and targeted local development planning; (d) whether there is any plan of the Government to extend this model- based estimation approach to other States and socio-economic indicators and if so, the State-wise details thereof including U.P.; (e) the details of steps being taken to ensure that local level officials are able to understand these insights and act on it effectively; and (f) whether any data sharing arrangement has been put in place for other ministries, such as the Ministry of Panchayati Raj and the Ministry of Rural Development, to make good use of the data collected and insights generated and if so, the details thereof? ANSWER MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) OF THE MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION; MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) OF THE MINISTRY OF PLANNING AND MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF CULTURE [RAO INDERJIT SINGH] (a): The Steering Committee for National Sample Surveys (NSS)constituted by the National Statistical Commission (NSC) recommended that MoSPI should undertake a pilot study on the feasibility for generating the model-based district-level estimates based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES): 2022-23 data. To explore the possibility of generation of district level estimates of Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE), a committee was formed under the Chairpersonship of Dr. Mausumi Bose, former Professor, Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Kolkata with members from the NSS and DES, Uttar Pradesh. The Committee was mandated to estimate MPCE figures for the districts of Uttar Pradesh utilizing model-based techniques, more specifically, Small Area Estimation (SAE) methods. The district-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural and Urban Sector are given in Annexure. (b): Model-based techniques, adopting the Fay–Herriot (FH) and Spatial Fay–Herriot (SFH) models under the Small Area Estimation framework to borrow strength from covariate data and neighboring districts was used to generate reliable estimates of MPCE for the districts of Uttar Pradesh. The detailed estimation methodology along with its benefits and use cases to other identical scenarios have been mentioned in the report available on the website of MoSPI at https://new.mospi.gov.in/uploads/publications_reports/publications_report s1761641209612_6875c53f-d8eb-4458-be3e- 1e12a9e528c9_Compiled_Report_final17092025.pdf (c): Using the methodology as adopted by the Committee, estimates of MPCE values at sub-state level for the state of Uttar Pradesh, including Baghpat District, have been generated. These estimates of MPCE figures, in turn, would provide an idea of the economic conditions of the households and thereby, facilitating policy decisions for implementation of developmental programmes. (d) to (e): The approach adopted in this study can be extended to other States and other socio-economic indicators. States have been encouraged to adopt similar approaches to fill data gaps and generate district-level estimates, especially where direct survey estimates are weak due to small sample sizes or are not available. (f): The report has been placed in public domain through MoSPI’s website and is freely accessible by Ministries/Departments and other users. *****Annexure Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural and Urban Sector MPCE (Rural) MPCE (Urban) District FH SFH FH SFH Saharanpur 3692 4056 4935 5025 Muzaffarnagar 3967 4020 6081 6136 Bijnor 3892 3930 3581 3585 Moradabad 3572 3582 4096 4086 Rampur 3750 3478 4153 4144 Amroha 3661 3722 3052 3056 Meerut 4279 4272 5482 5484 Bagpat 4347 4306 6995 6999 Ghaziabad 4044 4092 5597 5631 Gb Nagar 4454 4353 9705 9477 Bulandshahr 3922 3962 4272 4287 Aligarh 3614 3626 4238 4254 Hathras 3559 3561 4447 4426 Mathura 3531 3578 4135 4125 Agra 3590 3566 4808 4809 Firozabad 3105 3182 4187 4190 Mainpuri 3509 3415 4161 4185 Badaun 2899 2955 4183 4179 Bareilly 3633 3545 4628 4624 Pilibhit 3135 3147 3915 3918 Shahjahanpur 3327 3275 4341 4279 Kheri 3087 3081 4416 4406 Sitapur 3099 3097 3698 3714 Hardoi 2831 2841 3864 3877 Unnao 3049 3032 4476 4462 Lucknow 3248 3206 6622 6593 Rae Bareli 2926 2931 3979 3981 Farrukhabad 3146 3144 4473 4458 Kannauj 2597 2667 3449 3456 Etawah 3310 3228 5440 5295 Auraiya 2884 2883 3581 3583 Kanpur Dehat 3094 3077 3823 3831 Kanpur Nagar 2929 2907 4934 4937 Jalaun 3464 3393 4305 4315 Jhansi 3777 3690 4644 4765 Lalitpur 3133 3186 4288 4300 Hamirpur 2896 2994 5053 5074 Mahoba 3999 3868 4832 4850 Banda 2865 2876 4335 4322Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural and Urban Sector MPCE (Rural) MPCE (Urban) District FH SFH FH SFH Chitrakoot 3510 3314 3924 3921 Fatehpur 2936 2935 3922 3941 Pratapgarh 2847 2853 3716 3698 Kaushambi 2971 2975 3568 3557 Prayagraj 2967 2948 5048 5034 Barabanki 3041 3050 5155 5180 Faizabad 2609 2639 4827 4859 Ambedkar Nagar 3019 2980 2653 2649 Sultanpur 2904 2893 3636 3618 Behraich 3340 3375 4761 4782 Shrawasti 4462 4118 4182 4089 Balrampur 3559 3572 5087 5211 Gonda 3636 3622 8133 7861 Siddharth Nagar 2666 2706 3060 3124 Basti 2961 2959 3371 3397 Sk Nagar 2943 2922 4505 4417 Maharajganj 2778 2770 4170 4142 Gorakhpur 2878 2883 5777 5763 Kushinagar 2739 2746 3545 3550 Deoria 3105 3079 3883 3877 Azamgarh 2885 2891 3163 3156 Mau 2814 2808 2937 2930 Balliya 2753 2765 2581 2575 Jaunpur 2713 2718 3429 3413 Ghazipur 2579 2579 2771 2738 Chandauli 2367 2353 3401 3398 Varanasi 2755 2697 4171 4148 Bhadohi 2446 2444 3499 3479 Mirzapur 2409 2393 3909 3910 Sonbhadra 2357 2337 5524 5094 Etah 3833 3776 4354 4351 Kasganj 3372 3366 4001 3993 Shamli 3976 4026 6021 6137 Sambhal 3569 3557 4087 4074 Hapur 4043 4065 5578 5582 Amethi 2916 2906 3828 3826 Note: FH denotes Fay–Herriot (FH) model and SFH denotes Spatial FH